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AFS/MEDSLIK-II oil spill forecasting and hazard mapping services
Svitlana Liubartseva (CMCC) Michela De Dominicis (INGV) Paolo Oddo (CMCC) Nadia Pinardi (SINCEM UNIBO) Giovanni Coppini (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Sergio Creti (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Rita Lecci (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Angela Cocozza (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Esam Awad (Ocean-Lab CMCC) Silvia Falchetti (SINCEM UNIBO) Luca Giacomelli (SINCEM UNIBO) Francesco Trotta (SINCEM UNIBO)
Second Steering Committee meeting Rijeka, 2 and 3 October 2013
Outline
• Introduction • Oil spill model MEDSLIK-II as a freely available community model • Using MEDSLIK-II for the oil spill forecast
/by example of Costa Concordia case/
• Collaboration with MONGOOS and REMPEC
• MEDESS4MS and TESSA
• Our first operational use of MEDSLIK-II (2006) /by example of Lebanon crisis/
• Oil spill hazard simulations /by example of IONIO Project/
#1
MEDSLIK-II general description The oil spill model code MEDSLIK-II, based on its precursor oil spill model MEDSLIK
is a freely available community model
#2
MEDSLIK-II uses a Lagrangian representation of the oil slick
MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and oil transformation processes due to complex physical and chemical processes occurring in the sea-water interface
MEDSLIK-II includes a proper representation of high frequency currents, the wave induced currents and wind fields in the advective components of the Lagrangian trajectory model
MEDSLIK-II structure
#3
MEDSLIK-II as a full physics model
Advection-diffusion part is solved using a Lagrangian approach taking into account Eulerian currents Wave induced currents Wind correction Turbulence
Trasformation processes are solved considering the entire oil slick volume, subdivided in a thick and thick part. The oil fuxes due to evaporation, dispersion and spreading processes:
The model solves the advection-diffusion-transformation equation:
ADVECTION - DIFFUSION
TRANSFORMATIONS
)S(
TN
)D(
TN
)E(
TNTN
)S(
TK
)D(
TK
)E(
TKTK
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
dt
dV
#4
Operational Oil spill Forecast for ITCG /Costa Concordia Case/
In the framework of the two hydrodynamical models: MyOcean (upper panel) and Relocatable (bottom panel)
#5
INPUT data: ocean models
#6
1) MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system) (INGV) •Risoluzione Orizzontale: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km 2) AFS (Adriatic Forecasting system) (INGV-CMCC) •Risoluzione Orizzontale : 1/45°x1/45° ~ 2.2Km 3) SCRM (Sicilian Channel Regional Model) (CNR-IAMC) •Risoluzione orizzontale: 1/32°x1/32°, ~3.5 Km 4) WMED (Western Mediterranean Regional Model) (CNR-IAMC) •Risoluzione orizzontale: 1/32°x1/32°, ~3.5 Km
5) Modello rilocabile IRENOM (INGV-CMCC-UNIBO): rapido sviluppo di modelli ad alta risoluzione (fino ad 1km) 6) Modelli Costieri (CMCC/CNR-IAMC): modelli agli elementi finiti ad altissima risoluzione (fino ad alcuni m) nelle zone d’interess
#7
Oil spill forecasting system set up and operational at the Italian Coast Guard headquarter
Download of meteo-oceanographic data The system everyday downloads the ocean and meteo data from the
Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS), Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) and the wind data from ECMWF
MEDSLIK-II
User Interface for inserting input data and for visualization of
output results
Coast Guard User Interface
#8
MONGOOS and REMPEC
• Cooperation between the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network-MOON now MONGOOS and REMPEC in the field of oil spill combating
• MONGOOS partners and REMPEC signed the MOON-REMPEC agreement for cooperation and MOON established the Emergency Response Office-ERO to Support REMPEC in the management of oil spill emergency in the Mediterranean Sea
• In the past years, ERO experts provided REMEPEC and national authorities with support in several occasions
#9
MEDESS-4MS integrated service
Institutional/Operational users
Meteorological Analyses and Forecast (ECMWF
and MOON)
Oceanographic Analyses and Forecasts
(GMES MCS and MOON) Oil Spill Satellite
Monitoring System (SAR) and AIS
OIL SPILL Models for
FORECASTING
WEB SERVICE
#10
Development of DSS for Oil Spill
Oil Fate
Namelists
Sea Conditions’ Data
Archive
Oil Source s’ Specification
Initial Data Pre-Processing
Jpg Images Oil Trajectory
Operational /Delayed mode
ASCII files
MEDSLIK-II Run
Scenario specification
Data Archive (DA)
Data Transformation Service (DTS)
Complex Data Analysis Module (CDAM)
#11
Oil spill hindcast
#12
Pollution Hazard Mapping (PHM) as a new AFS/MEDSLIK-II service
“Hazard refers to the likelihood frequency (expressed as a probability) of any particular area to be affected by a destructive event within a given period of time”
(UNESCO, 1972)
The PHM subject is Operational Hazard from the Ship Traffic
Operational Oil Pollution: • Ballast Waters • Tank Washings • Engine Room Effluent Discharges
(Pavlakis et al., 2001)
The area of interest is the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian Sea (SANI)
#13
#14
200903.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp
200904.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp
200905.txt #1 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp #2 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp . . . #26 LonA/LatA/LonB/LatB/Int/Disp
Spill list # Time/Location/Volume/ID
1 000 000 spills/month
Monthly Ship Traffic Maps provided by ITCG
PHM pre-processing
Hourly Surface Oil Concentration CHOUR(x,y) Maps
PHM algorithm
THRHOUR(x,y) 1 CHOUR(x,y) CTHR
0 CHOUR(x,y) CTHR
“Hazard refers to the likelihood frequency (expressed as a probability) of any particular area to be affected by a destructive event within a given period of time”
(UNESCO, 1972)
Threshold Function:
H(x,y)
THRHOUR(x,y)HOUR1
N
N
Hazard:
#15
PHM simulations on ATHENA cluster at CMCC in Lecce
#16
PHM products and co-products
Pavlakis et al., 2001
Monthly Sea Surface Hazard Monthly Coastline Hazard
Monthly Averaged Surface Oil Concentration Monthly Averaged Coastline Oil Concentration
#17
PHM statistics
5 187 slicks are computed by MEDSLIK-II 720 hourly maps are aggregated
8 hours of non-stop cluster stimulation on 60 hosts
#18
PHM statistics for IONIO over 2009-2013
51 monthly PHMs for the sea surface 51 monthly PHMs for the coastline 51 monthly averaged oil concentration at the sea surface 51 monthly averaged oil concentration at the coastline
More than 5 000 oil spills per month,
which yields overall 278 906 MEDSLIK-II simulations
#19
Generalization of the problem
Specify the source of the oil spill hazard: - Ship/tanker traffic, - Platform and rigs, - Pipelines, etc - Any random set of potential sources
Run MEDSLIK-II stochastic scenarios on high-precision AFS and ECWMF archives
Obtain PHM for sea surface and shoreline
Use the information for planning the coastal facilities and improvement of the counter-measures in case of accidents
#20
Thanks
MEDSLIK-II users’ and developers’ meeting (22 October, 2012)