1

DPR Korean Energy DPR Korean Energy

Demand/Supply Analysis: Demand/Supply Analysis:

Energy Balance Sheet 2003Energy Balance Sheet 2003

11

DPRK Energy Experts Study Group MeetingDPRK Energy Experts Study Group Meeting

June 26 – June 27, 2006June 26 – June 27, 2006

Standford University, Palo Alto, California, USAStandford University, Palo Alto, California, USA

Kyung-Sool KimKyung-Sool Kim

Korea Energy Economics InstituteKorea Energy Economics InstituteCenter for Energy Research, Northeast AsiaCenter for Energy Research, Northeast Asia

2

A. OverviewA. Overview11

1. Gvnt’s Official Estimates on Primary Energy Supply ■ TPES of Coal, Oil, Hydro and Others ■ Socio-Economic Comparison between South/North Korea, Korean National Statistical Office, Published at the end of every year

2. Other Sources■ From related organizations, institutions, industries, departments of government, ■ experts, media and sometimes from DPR Korea

3. Bold assumption and experts judgments ■ Estimates and inferences ■ Refugee Interview

3

B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11

■ Primary Energy Supply in 2004: 16.5 mil. TOE

69.0% level of 1990’s

Average Annual Growth Rate of

Coal: -2.6%

Oil: -5.0%

Hydro: -1.3%

Others: -2.6%

TPES: -2.6%

Coal Oil Hydro Others TPES

1990 16575 2520 3748 1120 23963

1991 15500 1890 3750 780 21920

1992 14020 1520 3550 780 20450

1993 13550 1360 3323 799 19013

1994 12700 910 3480 785 17870

1995 11850 1100 3550 795 17280

1996 10500 1436 2120 791 15836

1997 10300 1006 2660 784 14746

1998 9300 1400 2550 776 14030

1999 10500 881 2794 780 14955

2000 11250 1117 2540 780 15687

2001 11550 1250 2650 780 16230

2002 10950 1253 2655 780 15640

2003 11150 1219 2930 780 16079

2004 11400 1230 3125 780 16535

'90-'04 -2.6 -5.0 -1.3 -2.6 -2.6

'04/'90 68.8 48.8 83.4 69.6 69.0

4

B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11

When TPES in 1990 is 1.0 oil decreased to 0.69, coal decreased to 0.688

1990 = 1.0 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Primary Total 1.000 0.721 0.655 0.677 0.653 0.671 0.690

Coal 1.000 0.715 0.679 0.697 0.661 0.673 0.688

Oil 1.000 0.437 0.443 0.496 0.497 0.484 0.488

Hydro 1.000 0.947 0.678 0.707 0.708 0.782 0.834

Others 1.000 0.710 0.696 0.696 0.696 0.696 0.696

(1990=1.0)

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Primary Total

Coal

Oil

Hydro

Others

5

B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

OthersHydroOilCoal

Share of TPES(%)

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Coal 69.2 68.6 71.7 71.2 70.0 69.3 68.9

Oil 10.5 6.4 7.1 7.7 8.0 7.6 7.4

Hydro 15.6 20.5 16.2 16.3 17.0 18.2 18.9

Others 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

No significant change in TPES structure Oil share decreased from 10.5%(1990) to 7.4%(2004) Hydro share increased from 15.6%(1990) to 18.9%(2004)

6

B. Primary Energy SupplyB. Primary Energy Supply11

TOE per capita decreased from 1.18 (1990) to 0.73 (2004)

TOE/GNI decreased from 1.14 (1990) to 0.92 (2004)

　 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 '90-'04

TPES (thou. TOE) 23963 17280 15687 16230 15640 16079 16535 -2.6

Population (thou. people) 20221 21543 22175 22253 22369 22522 22709 0.8

GNI('95,bil. Won) 21045 17170 16501 17112 17317 17629 18017 -1.1

TOE/Person 1.18 0.8 0.71 0.73 0.70 0.71 0.73 -3.4

TOE/mil. Won 1.14 1.01 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.91 0.92 -1.5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

TOE/Person

TOE/mil. Won

7

C. Final Energy Consumption - CoalC. Final Energy Consumption - Coal11

■ Estimation of the structure of sectoral coal consumption

1990 2000

Thermal Power Gen. 45% 42%

Industry 48% 52%

Household 7% 6%

* Ministry of Electricity and Coal Industry, DPRK, 2001

P. Gen.Industr

yHousehol

dPub./other

1990-93 45% 44% 7% 4%

1994-95 44% 45% 7% 4%

1996-97 43% 47% 6% 4%

1998-04 42% 48% 6% 4%

　　

　 Coal Demand/Supply Sectoral Demand

Primary Supply

PowerGeneration

Final Consumption

Industry Household Public/Others

1990 16575 7459 9116 7293 1160 663

1995 11850 5214 6636 5333 830 474

2000 11250 4725 6525 5400 675 450

2001 11550 4851 6699 5544 693 462

2002 10950 4599 6351 5256 657 438

2003 11150 4683 6467 5352 669 446

2004 11400 4788 6612 5472 684 456

8

C. Final Energy Consumption - OilC. Final Energy Consumption - Oil11

■ Estimation of Oil Import, Heavy Oil for Power Generation and the results of Distillation

From government'

s official statistics

thou. TOETotal

SupplyCrude Oil

Import

Oil Product ImportFinal

ConsumptionSumHeavy Oil for P. Gen.

Other Products

1990 2520 2520 　 N.A. 　 N.A. 　 N.A. 2293

1995 1100 951 149 149 　 865

2000 1117 389 728 495 233 587

2001 1250 580 670 495 175 703

2002 1253 696 557 406 151 784

2003 1219 669 550 306 244 853

2004 1230 620 610 306 304 868

From The Bank of Korea

“Economic growth rate

of DPRK”

Total Supply minus Crude

Oil Import

1995-2002: KEDO Heavy

Oil,2003~: Heavy

Oil from Distillation +

Some of Imported Heavy Oil

Total Produ

ct Import minus H. Oil for P. Gen.

(Crude Oil

Import * 0.91) + Other

Products

9

C. Final Energy Consumption - OilC. Final Energy Consumption - Oil11

■ Application of sectoral share of oil consumption in 1990 to all years

　 Industry Household Transport Others

Share (%) 38.1 4.6 18.8 38.5

* National Report to UNFCCC of DPRK, 2000

Thou.TOEFinal Oil

ConsumptionIndustry Transport Household

Public/Others

1990 2293 873 431 106 883

1995 865 329 163 40 333

2000 587 223 110 27 226

2001 703 268 132 32 271

2002 784 299 147 36 302

2003 853 325 160 39 328

2004 868 331 163 40 334

Sectoral Share of Oil Consumption (1990)

10

C. Final Energy Consumption - C. Final Energy Consumption -

OthersOthers

11

■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results)

Sectoral Share of Other Energy

　 Industry Transport Household Public/Other

1990 0.286 0.005 0.708 0.000

1996 0.210 0.003 0.787 0.000

2000 0.198 0.003 0.799 0.000

* Nautilus

Thou. TOE Total Supply Industry Transport Household Public/Others

1990 1120 321 6 793 0

1995 795 228 4 563 0

2000 780 154 2 624 0

2001 780 154 2 624 0

2002 780 154 2 624 0

2003 780 154 2 624 0

2004 780 154 2 624 0

From government's

official statistics

11

C. Final Energy Consumption - C. Final Energy Consumption -

ElectricityElectricity

11

■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results)

Sectoral Share of Electricity

　 Industry Transport Household Public/Other

1990 0.613 0.108 0.099 0.180

1996 0.533 0.089 0.133 0.244

2000 0.560 0.120 0.080 0.240

* Nautilus

From government's

official statistics

Thou. TOE GenerationFinal Con. Industry Transport Household

Public/Other

1990 2382 1906 1167 206 189 343

1995 1978 1484 909 160 147 267

2000 1668 1168 654 140 93 280

2001 1737 1216 681 146 97 292

2002 1634 1144 641 137 92 275

2003 1686 1180 661 142 94 283

2004 1772 1240 694 149 99 298

T&D Losses:~ 92: 20%

93~95: 25%96 ~: 30%

(J.M. Kim, 2001)

12

C. Final Energy ConsumptionC. Final Energy Consumption11

■ Final Energy Consumption by Sources

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

ElectricityOthersOilCoal

　 Coal Oil Other Elec. Total

1990 9945 2293 1120 1760 15118

1995 6636 865 795 1484 9780

2000 6525 587 780 1168 9060

2001 6699 703 780 1216 9398

2002 6351 793 780 1144 9068

2003 6467 861 780 1180 9288

2004 6612 868 780 1225 9485

90-'04 -2.9 -6.7 -2.6 -2.6 -3.3

13

C. Final Energy ConsumptionC. Final Energy Consumption11

■ Final Energy Consumption by Sector

　 Industry Transport HouseholdPublic/Others Total

1990 10228 627 2338 1925 15118

1995 6800 327 1579 1074 9780

2000 6431 252 1420 957 9060

2001 6646 280 1447 1025 9398

2002 6352 288 1409 1019 9068

2003 6494 305 1427 1062 9288

2004 6642 312 1446 1085 9485

90-'04 -3.0 -4.9 -3.4 -4.0 -3.3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Industry Transport Household Public/Others

14

D. Energy TransformationD. Energy Transformation11

■ Energy Input for Power Generation

Coal Input = -(Electricity Generated+ Hydro Input * Eff.

+ Oil Input * Eff.)/Eff.

From Government’s

Official Statistics

From Government’s

Official Statistics

(Oil Products Import + Distillated

Products) – Final Oil Consumption

■ Oil Distillation: Products Acquisition Rate (91%) Applied

Own Use & Losses

15

E. Energy Balance Sheet 2004E. Energy Balance Sheet 200411

　 Coal Crude OilOil

ProductsHydro Others

Electricity

Total

Energy Supply 11,400 620 610 3,125 780 - 16,535

Domestic Production 11,400 - - 3,125 780 - 15,305

Import 0 620 610 - 0 - 1,230

Export 0 - - - - 0

Energy Transformation (4,788) (620) 258 (3,125

) 0 1,225 (7,050)

Power Generation (3,956) - (306) (3,125) - 1,771 (5,616)

Oil Distillation - (620) 564 - - - (56)

Own Use (662) - - - - (124) (786)

Losses (170) - - - - (422) (592)

Final Consumption 6,612 - 868 - 780 1,225 9,485

Industry 5,472 - 330 - 154 686 6,642

Transport 0 - 163 - 2 147 312

Household 684 40 - 624 98 1,446

Public/Others 456 - 335 - 0 294 1,085

16

F. Further DevelopmentF. Further Development11

■ Data Gathering DPR Korean Official Statistics Survey on Energy Consuming Behavior

■ Biomass in Energy Balance Sheet Non-Commercial Energy: Excluded in IEA Standard Separate Format for Biomass Use

■ International Cooperation DPR Korean Expert Training for Energy Data System Cooperative Research Projects with DPRK Energy Survey in DPR Korea

17

11

THANK YOU VERY

MUCH