Dr Ian Pearson

A trip to the future

www.futurizon.com

Virtualisation

Living with virtuality

PhysicalWorld

Human world

Cyberspace

Augmented reality

Virtual architecture, data and image superposition, marketing, social and other information. Huge opportunities, but that also means interest from other industries with different agendas, such as Google, Microsoft, eBay or Apple, or government organisations…..

Active contact lensPearson 1991

Gaze direction sensor

MicromirrorInductive power supply

Processing

Comms & ctrl

Laser Laser

Laser· Resolution limited by the eye· Allows natural distance

perception· Tiny environmental footprint

LaserFocusing

Micromirror

Retina

LasersGaze direction sensor

Diamond substrate

Physical world Virtual worlds

Duality Markets

Augmented reality interfaces

Physical world content Virtual content

Context and position dependent data

Business, social, government and personal apps

Personalised overlay BusinessSocial

Buildings

PersonalVirtual

Politics and socialisation

Country A

Country B

Country C

Cybercommunity X

Cybercommunity Y

Cybercommunity Z

Real World Cyberspace

Future power will be web basedYoung people in one country are more like young people in another than older people in their own

As networks become more mature non-geographic politics will start to dominate

People will belong to a number of network tribes and will identify other members via their augmented reality

Digital bubble

Digital bubbles change how people network and socialise by enabling intelligent exchange of appropriate information and filtering out junk.

Works well with QR codes or image recognition too

Digital mirror, active make-up

Digital mirror lets you customise virtual appearance.

Can use with active makeup, or clothes auras to change look all through the day

Electronic money 2020Today’s Oyster Card is just the beginning

Conditional cash

VouchersLoyalty points

Time based value cashIOUs

Assigned cash

Play money

Playground economySafe pocket money

Family token systems

FavoursLETS

Babysitting tokensClub/society currency

Neighbourhood currency

Information brokerageAgent/robot economy

Analog payments

Tax free/tax paidVolatile cash

Corporate cash

Micro/nanopayments

Negotiable cash

Single Global Currency

Credit

Guaranteed/qualified cash

Algorithmic cashInternal currency

Intranet cashForward dated cash

Celebrity cashCollectable cash

Hyperlinked cashMultimedia cash

Personalised cash

Aesthetic cashEthical cash

Convergence

NBIC Convergence(nano-bio-info-cogno)

Nanotech gives us tiny devices

Tiny sensors help neuroscience figure out how the mind works

Insights from neuroscience feed into machine intelligence

Improving machine intelligence accelerates R&D in every sphere

Biotech and IT advances make body, clothes and machine connectable

TV

IT-side Convergence

Games technology is really key to convergence because it is the focal point for advanced interfaces and display interaction

Phones & tablets

GamesMags

Visors

Tracking

Film

Augmentedreality Profiling

E-ink Clothes

Food

Retail

Tiny computers

FXI USB stick sized, 1GHz Arm 9 with 1G RAM, HDTV, WiFi, Bluetooth, microSD slot

Raspberry Pi, £22, Linux, similar chip to iPhone 3G, used with TV like Spectrum

Such small computing devices could easily be integrated into clothing, jewellery or accessories

Data networksClouds, tags, mobiles and sensor networks

Environment will be very rich in processors, tags, data stores, sensors and communicators.

Our clothes and vehicles will also be full of IT capability

Tag

Store

Store

Store

Tag

Tag

Tag

Tag

Store

Processing

Processing

Processing

SensorSensor

Sensor

Sensor

Sensor

Sensor

Comms

Comms

Comms

Digital airPublic service data

Digital bubbles

Advertising Beacons

Positioning services

RFID chips in products

Background data radiation and public information will be ubiquitous, context dependent data will be pulled off the net and from packaging, marketing messages pushed by in-store beacons, and sticky information will brush off and be transmitted person to person down the street

Electronic jewellery

Identification, security

Social status

Digital image augmentation

Communication, data distribution

Sensing

Medical monitoring, alarms

Anyform

Networking

Decoration

Tribal signalling

Digital bubble

Mobile website

Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.

19

Permanent layerMid-term layerTransfer layer

Detachable layerWearable layer

Active skin & video tattoos

SkinEpidermis

Dermis

Body adornmentVideo tattoosSmart makeupSmart perfumeryDigital aura

Extra senses, remote monitoring and sensory enhancement

Sensorytranslation

unitInput Output

External sensors

Wearable sensors

Detachable sensors

Implanted sensorsAlarms

TelemetryMonitors

LogsControl systems

Messaging

Audio

Video

Heat or vibration

Pain or pleasure

Magnetic field

Radiation (EM or nuclear)

Magnetic field

Temperature

Location

Proximity

Sound

Chemical or microbiological presence

Data

Pollutants

3d Printing, local manufacture

3d printing can make complex accessories that can contain lots of IT or mechanical functionality as well as look nice

Security

Bypassing web restrictions: Jewellery nets

Direct inter-device networking will become an important alternative internet platform. This also moves the customer away from mobile nets, and device manufacturers take share.

Wireless LAN link to web and between clusters

Wireless links

Security threats

MFP

Smart dust

Internal signals indicate every piece of data that is processed by MFP. Signals can be captured and stored in smart dust until agent walks past, then silently transmitted to his memory stick.

Agent

Espionage35nm tech means 200M transistors/mm2.

Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywheree.g. sand or dirt, passed on by handshake, or dust settling from the air,

in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning is new security risk

Even coins or banknotes could be used to hide devices to monitor And record and transmit activity

Apple 2 computers: 0.015mmAnt: 10mm

Computer crime

· Evolution techniques work just as well for criminal software

· Can make use of distributed computing platform, with or without permission

· Emergence encoded software· Fraud engines using ecosystem adaptation· Blackmail engines, using surveillance

Kill Poor Performers

Test in Limited Environment

Select Fittest

Replicate with Errors

AI Development

Ultra-simple computing

CoreH/W

ROMFRAM

Disk

Net

Outer core

Everyday

Special

Occasional

Using simple chips and techniques wherever possible, IT can be made more secure, reliable, cheap, and compact, even fitting in very tiny devices.

Gel computing

Large number of capsules suspended in gel using free-space comms to link up to form ad-hoc circuitry

Sensor

PowerProcessing

comms

LEDRx

Storage

Sensor

Sensing

Single core

Dual core

Quad core

Massively multiple core-multiple chip

Digital

Digital & Analog

Self-organisation used with AI-controlled evolution to build circuit/function libraries and eventually strong AI48 core

OB1 - optical brain mk1A conscious computer

1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to 2 million emotions & unlimited sensesCould be fully sentientCould be benign or maliciousCan be linked to other devices via the net

Optical ‘hormone’

Gel

Sensory stimulus

sensoryencoding

playback

Sensoryecho Internal sensing

neural vortexgeneration

Neuralresponse

Neural interferenceprocessing vortex

Care economy businesses

Value ofphysical/intellectualWork

Value of community &social wellbeing

timeMore face to face interaction, needing emotional and ‘human’ skills.Trust will be a very key factor and requires better integration.Companies need to adapt to work more closely with the community.

Revaluation of human skills

Today, people often work as smart machines

Tomorrow, they will have to focus on interpersonal skills

Interpersonal skills increase as people age, allowing older people to do useful work

We will see more status for women too

Economic change

Part-reversal of globalisation

2010 2015 2020 2025

Global arrangements for most things, but work and consumption patterns will be increasingly localised

Many things are being globalised

Machine intelligence changes nature of work.

Carbon economics dictates less global transportation

Strong potential for virus outbreaks forcing travel constraints

Economic protectionism and regionalisation returns

Winners and losers

Europe, esp EurozoneJapanUSA

Middle EastSome African countries

Importance of rare earths and lithium

BrazilRussiaIndia

IndonesiaChina

South AfricaKazakhstan

CybernationsParallel

governance

Business will change faster

You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility.

Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable environment.

Risk taking pays dividends in periods of rapid change

Reorganisation and restructuringMuch wider variety of ad-hoc business models with more freelancers, coops and virtual companies

Some kinds of companies need lots of capital or infrastructure, others can more easily be decomposed and restructured. But none are invulnerable to change.

Sustainability

IT progress gives us more for less

But it isn’t over yet!!!

Rapid IT obsolescence

Device size and power consumption

Number of devices

timeThe faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the smaller the overall environmental impact.

Impact = device population x device impact

fast

slow

idpearson@gmail.com

www.futurizon.com

twitter.com/timeguide

Thank you

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