Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440: Ecological Consequences of Global Change Fall 2010homepages.wmich.edu/~karowe/2010 Fall Patterns and Causes... · 2014-10-10 · Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440 Fall 2010

Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440: Ecological Consequences of Global Change Fall 2010

PATTERNS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE I. TEMPERATURE

A. Global trends

B. Temporal and spatial trends

C. Seasonal trends

D. Length of growing season

E. The past decade

F. 2009

G. 2010 (thus far) II. PRECIPITATION

A. Long-term trends

B. Recent trends

C. Severe rainstorms

D. Droughts

CAUSES OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE I. CHANGES IN RADIATIVE FORCING AGENTS

A. Natural forcing agents

1. Solar irradiance

2. Volcanoes

B. Greenhouse gasses

C. Anthropogenic aerosols

D. Land use change

II. ATTRIBUTION OF RECENT TEMPERATURE CHANGE: SEPARATING NATURAL VARIATION FROM

ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE

A. Correlation analyses

B. Modeling studies

C. Radiative forcing measurements/estimates

Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440 Fall 2010 Patterns and Causes of Recent Climate Change page 2

PATTERNS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE I. TEMPERATURE

A. Global temperature has risen ~0.8 oC in the last 130 yr (Fig. 1)

1. Eight of the nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2001

a. 2005 was the warmest year on record, followed by 2009, 1998*, 2003, 2002, 2007, 2004, 2006, and 2001 (NASA 2010, CRU 2007)

b. NOAA calculates global temperatures slightly differently, so has a different ranking (NOAA 2010)

B. Temporal and spatial trends

1. Two major periods of warming (~1900-1940 and ~1976-present), separated by a period of non-significant cooling (~1941-1975) (Fig. 1)

2. The global rate warming has been increasing over the last 155 years (Table 1)

a. global rate over land for 1979-2005 was 5 times the rate for 1850-2005

b. global rate over oceans for “ was 3 times the rate for “

c. land has warmed more than oceans

d. Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than Southern Hemisphere

Table 1: Hemispheric and global trends for land surface temperature and sea surface temperature since 1850, in oC per decade. All trends are significant at p < 0.01 except those in italics, which are significant at p < 0.05. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)

1850-2005 1901-2005 1979-2005

Global Land Ocean

Northern Hemisphere (NH) Land Ocean

Southern Hemisphere (SH) Land Ocean

0.054 ± 0.016 0.039 ± 0.011

0.063 ± 0.015 0.040 ± 0.014

0.036 ± 0.024 0.038 ± 0.012

0.073 ± 0.020 0.067 ± 0.014

0.081 ± 0.026 0.068 ± 0.025

0.062 ± 0.017 0.068 ± 0.013

0.244 ± 0.071 0.134 ± 0.046

0.317 ± 0.066 0.188 ± 0.097

0.127 ± 0.066 0.091 ± 0.045

Figure 1. Average global temperature 1880-2009, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The 5-year running average is shown in red. (NASA 2010; see also Brohan et al. 2006; Lugina et al. 2006; Smith and Reynolds 2005; Hansen et al. 2001)


3. Since 1901, statistically significant warming over most of the world’s surface (Fig. 2)

a. century-long trends:

i. greatest warming in Asian interior, northern North America, southeastern Brazil, and some mid-latitude ocean regions of the SH

ii. slight cooling south of Greenland, in the southeastern US, Bolivia, and Congo basin

b. trends 1979-2005:

i. greatest warming in higher latitudes of NH

ii. slight cooling in the southern ocean

C. Seasonal trends (Fig. 3)

1. Western Hemisphere: warming greatest in winter

Eastern Hemisphere: warming greatest in spring

D. Length of growing season

1. Since 1950, the number of frost-free days has increased in ~75% of mid-latitude NH regions where data are available (Fig. 4)

Figure 2. Global temperature trends since 1901 (left, in oC per century) and since 1979 (right, in oC per decade). White crosses indicate areas of statistically significant warming, grey indicated insufficient data. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)

Figure 3. Global seasonal temperature trends since 1979. White crosses indicate areas of statistically significant warming. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3; Smith and Reynolds 2005)

Figure 4. Change in frost days from 1950-1995 (days/decade). Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at p < 0.05. (DEFRA 2002, 2004; IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3; see also Menzel & Fabian 1999)


2. Biggest change at 55-65o north latitude (Fig. 6)

a. 1982-1991: ~ +7 days

b. 1991-1992: ~ -5 days (why?)

c. 1992-1999: ~ +2.5 days

3. About ⅔ of lengthening due to earlier onset of spring, about ⅓ due to later onset of fall

E. The past decade (January 2000 to December 2009) was the warmest decade on record

1. Largest anomalies in Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 7)

2. Global temperature was 0.54°C above the 20th century average (NOAA 2010)

a. shattered the 1990s value of 0.36°C

F. NASA says 2009 was the 2nd warmest year on record (NOAA says 5th warmest) (see Fig. 1)

1. Temperature anomaly again greatest in Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 8a)

2. Overall, warming greatest at high northern latitudes (Fig. 8b)

Figure 6. Variation in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indication of growing season length, for 1982-1991 (a), 1991-1992 (b), 1992-1999 (c), and all three time periods (d). (Tucker et al. 2001)

Figure 7. Temperature anomaly for the past decade (2000-2009) relative to mean global temperatures from 1951-1980. Data are based on >1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea surface temperature, and Antarctic research station measurements. (GISS 2010a)

Figure 8. Temperature anomaly for 2009 relative to mean global temperatures from 1951-1980 for the globe (a, left; grey areas indicate insufficient data) and as a function of latitude (b, right). (GISS 2010b)


3. 2009 was the warmest year on record in the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 9)

4. Near-record global temperatures despite:

a. unusually cool December in much of North America

i. contiguous 48 states cover only 1.5 percent of the world’s area

a. La Niña during first few months (but El Niño for most of year)

b. deep minimum in 11-yr solar cycle

G. So far (Jan-Aug), 2010 is tied with 1998 as the warmest year on record (Fig. 10)

1. 1998 was a super El Niño year

II. PRECIPITATION

Background

1. For every oC rise, the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by ~7%

2. Precipitation is harder to measure than temperature

a. rain gauge measurements of snow and light rain are affected by wind speed

b. radar and satellites can only measure instantaneous rate

c. few measurements over oceans

A. Long-term trends

1. No significant global trend from 1900-2009

a. global increase to 1950s, decrease to early 1990s, then increase (Fig. 10)

Figure 9. Hemispheric average temperature 1880-2009, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. (NASA 2010)

Figure 10. Global annual land precipitation anomalies (mm) 1900-2009 relative to the 1961-1990 average. (NOAA NCDC 2010; see also IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)

Figure 10. Global, ocean, and land temperature anomalies for 2010 through August, relative to the 1900-1999 mean. (NOAA NCDC 2010, Smith et al. 2008, Smith and Reynolds 2005)


Figure 11. Trend of annual land precipitation amounts (% per century) for 1901-2005 (left) and 1979-2005 (right). The percentage is based on the means for the 1961-1990 period. (Grey areas: insufficient data; black + marks: trends significant at p<0.05.) (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 3)

2. Long-term regional trends (1900-2005) are in some cases significant (Fig. 11a)

a. increases over most of North America, except for southwestern US and northwest Mexico

i. increase also over parts of temperate zone Asia and western Australia

b. strongest decreases over western Africa and the Sahel

c. decrease also over Chile and parts of the western coast of South America

B. Recent trends (1979-2005) in annual precipitation are significant for fewer regions (Fig. 11b)

C. Globally, 2009 was about average (Fig. 12)

1. Drier than average conditions across Australia, southern South America, and southern Asia

2. Wetter than average in most of Europe, eastern half of U.S., and parts of Brazil and Asia

D. No compiled data available for Jan-Aug 2010

1. During the June-August 2010, above average precipitation over, e.g., Pakistan and central U.S.

2. Below average precipitation over, e.g., South America and eastern U.S. (Fig. 13)

E. Severe rainstorms have become more common throughout the contiguous U.S. (Fig. 14)

1. Similar but less pronounced trend in China (Zhai et al. 2005)

Figure 14. Trend in frequency of severe precipitation events from 1948-2006. (Madsen and Figdor 2007; Trenberth et al. 2003)

Figure 12. Precipitation anomalies for 2009, relative to 1961-1990 average. (NOAA NCDC 2010)

Figure 13. Precipitation anomalies for June-Auguse 2010, relative to 1961-1990 average. (NOAA NCDC 2010)


F. Droughts have become more common since 1900

1. Globally, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased slightly from 1900-1949, then dramatically from 1950-2002 (Fig. 15)

2. After 1950, much better data

a. greatest drying over central/eastern Asia, Canada, and Sahel

b. note change in US during this time

3. Since 1950, area in at least “severe” drought (PDSI < 3.0) more than doubled (12% → 30% of Earth’s surface) (Fig. 16)

a. most of change is after 1975 (why?)

b. “wet” areas (PDSI > 3.0) declined by 5%

Figure 15. Linear trends of PDSI (change per 50 yr) during 1900-49 (top) and 1950-2002 (bottom). Red areas indicate drying, blue areas indicate wetting. (Dai et al. 2004)

Figure 16. Percent of the total land area (60o S to 75o N) in very dry (PDSI <3.0; thin lines), very wet (PDSI >3.0; medium lines), and very dry or wet (thickest lines at the top) conditions from 1950 to 2002. Dashed lines indicate changes that would have occurred without global warming (i.e. due to precipitation alone). (Dai et al. 2004)


Figure 1. Total solar irradiance (in W/m2) over the last 400 years, by three separate reconstructions; sunspot numbers are also shown. (Lean 2010; see also Lean 2000, Wang et al. 2005, Tapping et al. 2007).

Figure 2. Total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978. Colors indicate measurements by different instruments. (Lockwood and Fröhlich 2008; see also Lockwood and Fröhlich 2007, Lockwood 2008, 2010).

CAUSES OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE

I. Changes in Radiative Forcing Agents

A. Natural forcing agents

1. Solar irradiance increased over the last 400 years, as Earth came out of “Little Ice Age” (Fig. 1)

a. however, solar irradiance decreased since 1978 (Fig. 2)

2. Volcanism has increased in the last 50 years (Fig. 3)

B. Greenhouse gasses (the main anthropogenic forcing agent)

1. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHGs) include H2O vapor, CO2, CH4, N2O (nitrous oxide), and tropospheric ozone (O3).

2. All GHGs have increased exponentially over the last 150 or so years (Fig. 4)

a. CO2 from burning of fossil fuels, waste, and biomass, and from land use change

b. CH4 from swamps, landfills, livestock, and production of fossil fuels

c. N2O from agriculture, industry, and burning of waste and fossil fuels

Figure 4. Change in GHG concentrations over the past two millennia (IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)

Figure 3. Estimates of stratospheric sulphate aerosols formed in the aftermath of explosive volcanic eruptions that occurred between 1860 and 2000. (Sato et al. 1993; Ammann et al. 2003; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)


Figure 7. Anthropogenic modifications of land cover from 1750 to 1990. (IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 2, Klein Goldewijk 2001)

3. GHGs differ greatly in their global warming potential (GWP) (Fig. 5)

C. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are highest in U.S., Europe, and SE Asia (Fig 6a)

1. Since 1985, have been decreasing in U.S. and Europe, but increasing in SE Asia (Figs. 6b)

D. Land-use change (mostly conversion of forests to agricultural land)

1. In 1750, 8-9 million km2 (6-7% of the global land surface) was under cultivation or pasture (Fig. 7)

2. By 1990, croplands and pasture covered 45-51 million km2 (35-39% of global land)

3. Land-use change added ~1.4 Gt/yr of carbon to the atmosphere in the 1980s, ~ 1.6 Gt/yr in the 1990s

Global Warming Potential Gas Lifetime (years)

20 yr 100 yr 500 yr

Carbon dioxide ( CO2) 5-200 1 1 1

Methane ( CH4) 12* 62 23 7

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 115* 275 296 156

CFCs ( CClxFx) 45-1,700 6,300- 10,200

4,600- 14,000

1,600- 16,300

Figure 5. GWP of most major greenhouse gasses. Uncertainties in the radiative forcing of the majority of the gases are approximately ± 10%. (EPA 2002)

Figure 6a. Anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory Figure 6b. Change in SO2 emissions 1985-2000 for 1985 (mgS/m2/day). (mgS/m2/day).

(Both figures from Manktelow et al. 2007; see also Yu et al. 2006; Hansen et al. 2005; Stier et al. 2006; Reddy et al. 2005; Takemura et al. 2005; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 2)


II. Attribution of Recent Temperature Change

A. Correlation analyses

1. Suggest that, in the early part of the 20th century, CO2 replaced the sun as the major driver of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures (Fig. 8)

B. Modeling studies

1. Models with only natural forcings do a poor job of replicating recent climate change since 1900, but those with both natural and anthropogenic forcings do a good job (Fig. 9)

a. models with only natural forcings generally predict cooling

b. true at regional scales also (see IPCC AR4 WGI SPM)

Figure 8. Correlations from 1610-1995 between NH temperature (top) and reconstructed solar irradiance, atmospheric CO2 levels, and volcanic dust veil index (DVI). Bottom panel: evolving multivariate correlation of NH series with the three forcings. The time axis denotes the center of a 200-year moving window. Horizontal dashed lines indicate strength of positive correlations (90%, 95%, 99% significance levels), while the horizontal dotted line indicates strength of negative correlations (90% significance). (Mann et al. 1998)

Figure 9. Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901-1950 (°C) from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth’s continents, as well as the entire globe, global land area and the global ocean (lower graphs). The black line indicates observed temperature change, while the colored bands show the combined range covered by 90% of recent model simulations. Red indicates simulations that include natural and human factors, while blue indicates simulations that include only natural factors. Dashed black lines indicate decades and continental regions for which there are substantially fewer observations. (IPCC AR4 WGI SPM; see also Stott et al. 2006; Brohan et al. 2006; IPCC AR4 WGI Chapter 9)


C. Direct measurements and/or estimates of radiative forcing agents indicate a dominant effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses (Fig. 10)

1. Best estimates (all in W/m2): changes in solar irradiance: + 0.12 changes in CO2 levels: + 1.66 changes in CH4, N2O, and halocarbon levels: + 0.98 changes in tropospheric O3 levels: + 0.35 changes in aerosol direct and indirect effects: - 1.2

2. Of all positive (warming) radiative forcing, the sun accounts for ~4% (0.12/3.11)

3. Considering all anthropogenic effects, net radiative forcing is 1.6 W/m2

Figure 10. Global average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important agents and mechanisms, together with the typical geographical extent (spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed level of scientific understanding (LOSU). The net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its range are also shown. Volcanic aerosols contribute an additional natural forcing but are not included in this figure due to their episodic nature. (IPCC AR4 WGI SPM)


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Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440: Ecological Consequences of Global Change Fall 2010homepages.wmich.edu/~karowe/2010 Fall Patterns and Causes... · 2014-10-10 · Dr. Karowe BIOS 5440 Fall 2010