Dr. Muhammad Hanif National Weather Forecasting Centre PMD, Islamabad

Dr. Muhammad HanifNational Weather Forecasting CentrePMD, Islamabad

Dr. Muhammad HanifNational Weather Forecasting CentrePMD, Islamabad

Redistribution of Precipitation (Seasonal Shift) in Pakistan

&

Super Flood in Pakistan-2010

Redistribution of Precipitation (Seasonal Shift) in Pakistan

&

Super Flood in Pakistan-2010

PMDPakistan Meteorological Department

PMDPakistan Meteorological Department

MeteorologyMeteorology

SERVICESSERVICES

HydrologyHydrology

Agro-meteorology/DroughtAgro-meteorology/Drought

SeismologySeismology

Weather Forecasting System of PMDWeather Forecasting System of PMD

Data

Technique

Skill

Data

Technique

Skill

Short Range Weather Forecasts(24 – 48 Hrs): accuracy 90%

Medium Range Weather Forecasts(1 – 2 weeks): accuracy 70-80%

Long Range/Seasonal Weather Forecasts(1 – 6 Months): Poor

Short Range Weather Forecasts(24 – 48 Hrs): accuracy 90%

Medium Range Weather Forecasts(1 – 2 weeks): accuracy 70-80%

Long Range/Seasonal Weather Forecasts(1 – 6 Months): Poor

80 Rain Gauge Stations

Data Bank of PMD (CDPC)Data Bank of PMD (CDPC)


Weather Stations/Observatories NetworkWeather Stations/Observatories Network

50 AWS

DATADATA

10-cm Doppler Radars

1- Lahore2- Mangla

QPM Radar

1- Sialkot

5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars

1- Islamabad3- D.I.Khan4- Rahim Yar Khan4- Karachi

10-cm Doppler Radars

1- Lahore2- Mangla

QPM Radar

1- Sialkot

5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars

1- Islamabad3- D.I.Khan4- Rahim Yar Khan4- Karachi

Radar Network of PMDRadar Network of PMD


DATADATA

Satellite Ground Stations of PMDSatellite Ground Stations of PMD

HRPTHRPT

1- Islamabad2- Quetta

1- Islamabad2- Quetta

FY-2 E/DFY-2 E/D1- Islamabad1- Islamabad


DATADATA

Products: Weather ForecastsProducts: Weather ForecastsWeather Forecasting System of PMDWeather Forecasting System of PMD

RainRain

TempsTemps

WindsWinds

Information on Website


Extreme RainfallExtreme Rainfall

Flash FloodsFlash Floods

MonsoonZone

Flash Floods in KPK-2010Flash Floods in KPK-2010

Climate: Rainfall DistributionClimate: Rainfall Distribution

In 2007, Zhang et al detected the anthropogenic impact on Global Precipitation. They showed a latitudinal redistribution of mean Global Precipitation, indicating increasing precipitation at high latitudes and decreasing precipitation at lower latitudes.

In 2007, Zhang et al detected the anthropogenic impact on Global Precipitation. They showed a latitudinal redistribution of mean Global Precipitation, indicating increasing precipitation at high latitudes and decreasing precipitation at lower latitudes.

Latitudinal Redistribution of Precipitation in Pakistan

Monsoon Rainfall in Pakistan:1951-2000

R2 = 0.115

R2 = 0.000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

Rai

nfal

l (m

m/4

mon

th)

North South

--22°N

--30°N

--38°N


Terciles: Monsoon Precipitation (1951-2000)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

Upper Lower


Previous

Current

Monsoon Precipitation Shift (80-100 km West)


These areas required more attention for water

management and to mitigate the flood disasters

in the future

Monsoonal Rain ShiftThese areas required

more attention for water management and to mitigate

the flood disasters in the future

JanJan FebFeb MarMar AprApr MayMay JunJun JulJul AugAug SepSep OctOct NovNov DecDec

100 mm100 mm --------

Monthly Rainfall ShiftMonthly Rainfall Shift


100 mm100 mm --------Climate: 2011-2020Climate: 2011-2020



Climate: 1991-2010Climate: 1991-2010

Climate: 2010-2020Climate: 2010-2020

Climate: 1961-1990Climate: 1961-1990


100 mm100 mm --------

Monthly Rainfall ShiftMonthly Rainfall Shift





DRY

WET

WET

WETTEST

DRY

DRIER

DRIER

DRIEST

WinterWinterMonsoonMonsoon

Climate: 1991-2010Climate: 1991-2010

Climate: 2010-2020Climate: 2010-2020

Climate: 1961-1990Climate: 1961-1990

WetWet

WetWet

DryDryDryDry

JanJan FebFebMarMar AprApr MayMay JunJun JulJul AugAug SepSep OctOct NovNov DecDec

RainfallRainfallProjected Climate: 2020 - 2030Projected Climate: 2020 - 2030

Wet PeriodWet Period Dry PeriodDry Period

6 Months (Mar – Aug)…………… Wet Window6 Months (Mar – Aug)…………… Wet Window

6 Months (Sep – Feb)…………… Dry Window6 Months (Sep – Feb)…………… Dry Window

WinterWinter

MonsoonMonsoon


Due to significant increase in SEASONAL and ANNUAL Precipitation in Pakistan, and the WESTWARD SHIFT (80-100 km) of Monsoonal Rainfall;

1- Rainfall over the Catchment Areas of Eastern Rivers has decreased(moved away).

2- The Probability of occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events, leading to FLASH FLOODS/FLOODS, would be HIGH over western rivers instead of eastern rivers of Pakistan in the future.

3- Northwest Pakistan (Central parts of KPK & North-western parts of Punjab) are Extremely Vulnerable to Flash Floods/Floods.

Pakistan Super Flood: 2010Pakistan Super Flood: 2010

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon visits Sultan Colony, an Internally Displaced Persons’ camp, in Punjab on 15 August 2010 in Multan. UN described the disaster as unprecedented, with over a third of the country under water (Evan Schneider/UN via Getty Images)

SUPER FLOOD (2010) in Pakistan: Very Heavy Rainfall 0ver NW PakistanSUPER FLOOD (2010) in Pakistan: Very Heavy Rainfall 0ver NW Pakistan

Army helicopter evacuates stranded villagers in Nowshera, Pakistan on Friday, 30 July 2010. Boats & helicopters struggled to reach hundreds of thousands of villagers cut off by floods in northwest region, this has been the deadliest disaster to hit the region since 1929


Flood victims evacuate their villages in Sukkur, Sindh province following days of heavy rain


An aerial view shows a damaged bridge washed out by the floods in Ghazi,5 August 2010 (REUTERS)


Survivors walk in the flooded area of Baseera village, Multan, on 10 August 2010. (Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images)


Khyber PK

Pakistan received 70.5 % above Normal rainfall in the month of July, 2010Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa received 179.1% above Normal rainfall in July, 2010



Westerly Wave(Mid Latitude Weather Systems)

Tracks of Monsoon & Winter Weather SystemsTracks of Monsoon & Winter Weather Systems

Monsoon

MonsoonalZone

SUPER FLOOD (2010) in Pakistan: Very Heavy Rainfall 0ver NW Pakistan

Very Heavy Rainfall occurred due to INTERACTION of 2 Weather Systems(Westerly Wave & Monsoonal Wave) over NW Pakistan.

Very Heavy Rainfall occurred due to INTERACTION of 2 Weather Systems(Westerly Wave & Monsoonal Wave) over NW Pakistan.


Russian Heat

Russian Heat

North China Heat

North China Heat

SE China Rain/LS

SE China Rain/LS

PakistanFlood

PakistanFlood

July 2010: Disasters in AsiaJuly 2010: Disasters in Asia

Due to ENSO-Cycle, the displacement (northward shift) of Subtropical HIGHS perturbed the Jet Stream,

leading to Extreme Weather in Asia in July, 2010.

Due to ENSO-Cycle, the displacement (northward shift) of Subtropical HIGHS perturbed the Jet Stream,

leading to Extreme Weather in Asia in July, 2010.

Super Flood (July, 2010) of Pakistan, Extreme HEAT over Russia and Heavy Rains/Landslides over SE China were INTERLINKED.


Post Analysis of Subtropical Highs (Ridge): 500 mbPost Analysis of Subtropical Highs (Ridge): 500 mb

HHHH HH


Subtropical HIGHS (cause of stable/normal climate)

Subtropical HIGHS (cause of stable/normal climate)

Jet StreamJet Stream

H

H

H



H

H

H



H

H

H



H

H

H



H

HH



H

HH



H

H H



H


Winter: 2010/2011 - Subtropical Highs (Ridge): 500 mbWinter: 2010/2011 - Subtropical Highs (Ridge): 500 mb

HH

LLHH

Winter 2011: Cold & Dry with Dense FogWinter 2011: Cold & Dry with Dense Fog

The Displacement of Sub-Tropical HIGHS, due to current ENSO Cycle(La-Nina episode) caused;

1- Extreme Rainfall over NW Pakistan during Monsoon Season (2010).2- Deficient Rainfall & Extreme Cold/Fog over Pakistan during Current Winter Season.

The Displacement of Sub-Tropical HIGHS, due to current ENSO Cycle(La-Nina episode) caused;

1- Extreme Rainfall over NW Pakistan during Monsoon Season (2010).2- Deficient Rainfall & Extreme Cold/Fog over Pakistan during Current Winter Season.

It is difficult to present an overall indication of the potential impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan. However, the occurrence of recent Extreme Events such as Flood-2010, Deficient Rainfall in Winter and Current Dense and Prolonged Fog are enough to get an Alarming-Attention about a possible Climate Change in Pakistan, having direct and large impacts on several sectors of the society.

It is difficult to present an overall indication of the potential impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan. However, the occurrence of recent Extreme Events such as Flood-2010, Deficient Rainfall in Winter and Current Dense and Prolonged Fog are enough to get an Alarming-Attention about a possible Climate Change in Pakistan, having direct and large impacts on several sectors of the society.

THANKSTHANKS

Documents

Dr. Muhammad Hanif National Weather Forecasting Centre PMD, Islamabad