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Dr. Paul KershawUniversity of British Columbia
Human Early Learning PartnershipMarch 4, 2011
Kelowna, BC
A Canada that Works for All
Generations
Cracks?
Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php
25-45 year oldsMore
labour market
hours
More
unpaid domestic hours
Children Boomers & Seniors
ThenNow
$Average Household
Incomeas young adults
WhenBoomers wereyoung adults(1976-1980)
Today’syoung adults(2004-2008)
WhenBoomers wereyoung adults(1976)
Today’s young adults(2009)
9% decline 393% increase
Average
House price
$120,731
$474,274$72,620
$65,94056%
of women 25-45 years in labour force 80%
of women 25-45 years in labour force
COHORT
Population pressuresPO
P. S
IZE
(200
9)
CHILDHOODBiological
sensitivity/ opportunity
AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty
…plus biological realities
CHILDREN
YOUTH
25 - 4
5
YEAR OLD
S
BOOMERS
JUNIO
R SENIO
RS
SENIO
R SENIO
RS
Sensitive Periods in Early Brain Development
Vision
0 1 2 3 7654
High
Low
Years
Habitual ways of respondingEmotional
control
Symbol
Peer social skillsNumbers
Hearing
Graph developed by Council for Early Child Development (ref: Nash, 1997; Early Years Study, 1999; Shonkoff, 2000.)
Pre-school years School years
Language
of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable.
Vulnerability above 10% is not biologically necessary.
29%
Biologically, no neighbourhood need have vulnerability above 10%.
>10%
<10%
Vulnerable onOne or More Scales
Source: EDI Wave 2 (2004/05 – 2006/07)
BC: Unique Population Laboratory:
Early Vulnerability Quality of Labour Supply
Kindergarten Population
Grade 4Population
Grade 7Population
Grade 12Population
Criminalactivity
to cut incarceration
by a third
Reduce Early Vulnerability to
10%...
to increase
university eligibility by a third.
Reduce early vulnerability
to 10%...
# o
f ch
ildre
n
Score on scale of EDIand
% achieving university eligible grades
Low High
29% 41.5%
University eligiblegrades
Vulnerability
If Then
At K At G.12
The next generation’s Human Capital
# o
f ch
ildre
n
Score on scale of EDIand
% achieving university eligible grades
Low High
10% 55.6%
University eligiblegradesVulnerability
If Then
At K At G.12
The next generation’s Human Capital
1960 – 2000: Research shows…
Countries with 55% of students getting university-eligible grades
vs.Countries with 42% of students getting
university eligible grades…
ENJOYED .63% OF GDP GROWTH MORE PER YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS
Decreased Vulnerability = Increased Growth
0 10 20 30 40 500
200
400
600
800
1000
Years
BC GDP($Billions)
First cohort of 5 year olds benefit from 15 by 15 policy
First cohort graduates
Status Quo (29%
vulnerable)
Reduced vulnerability
(10%)
That’s throwing away $401.5 billion now + interest over 60
years!
We are here
Reduced early vulnerabilityincreases GDP by
20%
Baseline growthBaseline growth plus 0.63% GDP per year
of BC kindergarten children are vulnerable.29
% Most vulnerable children are not poor!
Why?
CHILDHOODBiological
sensitivity/ opportunity
AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty
CHILDREN
YOUTH
25 - 4
5
YEAR OLD
S
BOOMERS
JUNIO
R SENIO
RS
SENIO
R SENIO
RS
Demographic heroes?
CHILDHOODBiological
sensitivity/ opportunity
AGEINGBiological vulnerability/ frailty
CHILDREN
YOUTH
25 - 4
5
YEAR OLD
S
BOOMERS
JUNIO
R SENIO
RS
SENIO
R SENIO
RS
Resisting the Intergenerational squeeze
$ $
Canada has a proud history of Building and Adapting
Sch
ools
Roa
ds
&Rai
lway
s
Univ
ersi
ties
Mar
kets
& B
anks
Wor
ld W
ars
& o
ther
conflic
ts
Old
Age
Sec
uri
ty 1
951 &
C/Q
PP 1
966
Hos
pital
Ins
1957 &
Med
ical
Car
e 1966
What
since
?W
orke
rs C
omp &
UI
Country2009 Central
Government Debt (% GDP)
AustraliaSwitzerlandNorwayNZCanadaSwedenDenmarkGermanyUSFranceUKSource
8%21%26%28%36%38%38%44%53%61%75%OECD
% increase since 1973
133%
CANSIM
FISCAL DEBT
Country 2008 Tonnes CO2/Capita
SwedenSwitzerlandFranceNZNorwayUKDenmarkGermanyCanadaUSAustraliaSource
5.05.75.77.77.98.38.89.8
16.518.418.5
IEA
Change in GHG% 1990 level
13%1%
-12%18%-22%-18%-6%
-21%47%16%82%
UNFCCC
ENVIRONMENTAL DEBT
CountryFamily Policy for Young Children
Score/10
SwedenNorwayDenmarkFranceNZUKGermanySwitzerlandUSAustraliaCanadaSource
108886543321
UNICEF
FAMILY POLICY DEBT
Parental Leave(year: 2008)
Parents both take 6 months to care for infant. Disposable income relative to couple without children
Lower Earner (takes all 12 months)
Country Year Can$ (controlling for PPPs) Year Can$Denmark 12,915 1,971Germany 1,166 1,054Sweden 1,105 -2,530Quebec -2,548Austria -3,295 -391Czech Republic -5,945 372Slovak Republic -6,958 -2,251Finland -8,468 -4,694Netherlands -8,624 -9,258Spain -9,941 -5,641UK -10,036 -6,274Belgium -10,298 -6,448Norway -10,687 -7,307Canada (outside of Quebec) -10,353 - 11,779 -6,971New Zealand -12,592 -18,999Italy -15,160 -11,653France -16,085 -8,480Australia -16,343 -13,235Ireland -19,044 -10,397USA -23,119 -16,389Japan -24,019 -10,866
0.22%
Public expenditure on ECEC services (0-6 years)
in selected OECD countries
Source: Adapted from Starting Strong ll: Early Childhood Education and Care, September 2006, p.11
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Finland
France
Hungary
Austria
United Kingdom
United States
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
Australia
Canada
0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
BC
Canada
Canada (outside Quebec)• Few spaces• Insufficient quality • High cost• Inadequate Inclusion
British Columbia• Currently 0.22% of GDP• 0.28% with full school-day K
OECDavg.0.7%
UNICEF & EUbenchmark1.0%
0.25%0.28%
% of GDP
No
rwa
y
Au
stri
a
De
nm
arkUK
Sw
ed
en
Ge
rma
ny
Au
stra
lia
Ne
th
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
NZ
Fra
nce
Ire
lan
d
Be
lgiu
m
Ca
na
da
US
Cze
ch
Sp
ain
Slo
va
k
Ita
ly
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$ after taxes, housing and routine health
Lone Mother with Toddler on In-come Assistance
Canadian Currency (controlling for purchasing power parities)
(2008)
Because there is no system of family policy…
Canadian Society is FAILING parents in fundamental ways!
Time PovertyService PovertyIncome Poverty
Reflects appreciation of costs imposed by residential school system; reserves, etc.
Solution?
Renew our efforts to build and adaptso that Canada Works for All Generations.
Sch
ools
Roa
ds
&Rai
lway
s
Univ
ersi
ties
Mar
kets
& B
anks
Wor
ld W
ars
& o
ther
conflic
ts
Old
Age
Sec
uri
ty 1
951 &
C/Q
PP 1
966
Hos
pital
Ins
1957 &
Med
ical
Car
e 1966
What
next?
Wor
kers
Com
p &
UI
Enough Time with kids, family and friends
Better parental leavemore time: +6 months, for dadsmore $: $932/week, up from $442minimum: $440/week
Enough Time with kids, family and friends
1600 hour annual full-time norm?
Canadian 300 more hours/year than German, Dutch and Norwegian citizen56% of men and 31% of women more than 40 hours22% of men and 41% of women less than 30 hoursWork beyond age 65…
Enough Time to make ends meet, to be
creative
Child Care & Early Learning Services
$10/day, from leave through K$7/day, p-t option for @-home parentsProvided by caregivers with ECE trainingPlay-based approach to ECDPaid pay equity-level wages
Include Parenting Supports & Healthy Child Check-ins
In BC, children under 6:
Today
Smart Family Policy
44% Parental Care Only 37%
33% Regulated Care 63%
23% Unregulated Care 0%
100% 100%
Photo credit: www.nvdaily.com/news/2010/07/mayor-removal-of-dam-high-priority.php
25-45 year olds
Leave: 15,687 years1600 norm: 8,428 years
Children Boomers & Seniors
$Net benefit: $126
millionUnder $60K gains
Over $60k trading some cash for time
$351 million @ minimum wage
The price of smart family policy...
Time & Income Parental leave
$1.1 billion
End poverty & Living wage $474
million
A Canada that works for all generations: the cost in BC
Child Care and Early learning
Healthy Child Check-Ins & Parenting Support$91 million
1600 hour annual
employ. norm$59 million
Less $150 million, because of the progress made, despite recession
Services
$1.1 billion
$2.8Billion/Year
$2.8 Billion/Year in BC?!?
Less than half what we spend cumulatively on Old Age Security and RRSPs.
Eventual returns outweigh costs by 6/1
About 12-20% of total fed/prov health care spending.
More sophisticated consumers of policy announcements.
$2.8 Billion Increase in Spending?
Provincial Health Care Spending($ Billions) 1998 - 2008
$3B/5 years
$3B/5 years
Failure to adapt costs BC employers…
Absenteeism: $293 millionProductivity: $393 millionRetention: $575-800 millionInsurance premiums $ 15 millionParental leave top up $ 20 million
Sub-total $1+ billionReduce wage pressures…
Failure to adapt costs GovernmentChild welfare: $157 millionW/L stress GPs, emerg, hospitalization: $299 million Prescription drugs $ 26 million Sub-total $482 million
Reduction in unemployment: 9,950 FTEsEarly vuln K-12 costsPoverty health care costs
Adapting the damis a part of our history, good management, smart economics & a just cause.
Sch
ools
Roa
ds
&Rai
lway
s
Univ
ersi
ties
Mar
kets
& B
anks
Wor
ld W
ars
& o
ther
conflic
ts
Old
Age
Sec
uri
ty 1
951 &
C/Q
PP 1
966
Hos
pital
Ins
1957 &
Med
ical
Car
e 1966
Sm
art
Fam
ily P
olicy
Wor
kers
Com
p &
UI
Trusted Professions in Canada (2007)
Fire Fighters97%Nurses 94%Farmers92%Teachers89%Doctors 87%
Politicians 15%
Thank you.
• Paul Kershaw, Ph.D.• The University of British Columbia• College for Interdisciplinary Studies• Human Early Learning Partnership (HELP)• http://www.earlylearning.ubc.ca/PaulKershaw.htm• e-mail: [email protected]
