Dr. Pham Brief - Naval Power in Africa

7/28/2019 Dr. Pham Brief - Naval Power in Africa

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Maritime Strategic Context

for AFRICOMWith Particular Reference to the Gulf of Guinea

Briefing for theSpace and Naval Warfare (SPAWAR)

Systems Center, Charleston

25-26 October 2007

Dr. J. Peter Pham


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Strategic Vision

Africa holds growing geo-strategic importance and is a highpriority of this Administration. It is a place of promise andopportunity, linked to the United States by history, culture,commerce, and strategic significance. Our goal is an Africancontinent that knows liberty, peace, stability, and increasingprosperity.

National Security Strategyof the United States of America (2006)

I am pleased to announce my decision to create a Department ofDefense Unified Combatant Command for Africa. I have directedthe Secretary of Defense to stand up U.S. Africa Command by theend of fiscal year 2008. This new command will strengthen oursecurity cooperation with Africa and create new opportunities tobolster the capabilities of our partners in Africa. Africa Commandwill enhance our efforts to bring peace and security to the peopleof Africa and promote our common goals of development, health,education, democracy, and economic growth in Africa.

President George W. Bush (February 6, 2007)


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Geographical and Environmental

Context


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Gulf of Guinea


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U.S. Africa Squadron, 1842-1861

The rights of our citizensengaged in lawful commerce areunder the protection of our flag;and it is the chief purpose as wellas the chief duty of our navalpower to see that these rights are

not improperly abridged orinvadedIt is to be borne inmind, that while the UnitedStates sincerely desire thesuppression of the slave trade,and design to exert their power,in good faith, for theaccomplishment of that object,they do not regard the success oftheir efforts as their paramountinterest.Instructions to Captain MatthewC. Perry from Secretary of theNavy Abel P. Upshur


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Economic Context

Low GDP: regional average is $1,500per capita (PPP).

Hydrocarbon sector is significantproportion of economy and source offoreign exchange: 50-90 in Angola,20-95 in Nigeria, 50-75 in Gabon.


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Hydrocarbons

Top West Africanproducers by barrels ofoil per day:

1. Nigeria: 2.5 million

2. Angola: 902,000

3. Equatorial Guinea:350,000

4. Gabon: 289,000

5. Congo: 235,000

6. Chad: 200,000

7. Cameroon: 67,000

8. Cte dIvoire: 33,000


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U.S. Energy Security

Gulf of

Guinea

0

1

2

3

2005 2010 2015

millionsofbarrelsperday

ofgrowth

Production in the Gulf ofGuinea will increase 40percent by 2015.

The region already

provides approximately 55percent of U.S. imports oflight, sweet crude, which iseasier to refine fordomestic consumptionthan the high sulfur-content petroleum fromthe Middle East orVenezuela.


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Demographic Context

African demographics creates

breeding ground for extremists Youth bulge 40% of population

is less than 15 years old

Systemic corruption prevents

equitable distribution of resources

Two choices for growingpopulation:

Stay in Africa with little hope;

terrorism and criminal activity

perpetuates and aggravates

instability Immigration (legal and illegal)

upsets European Muslim ratio;

promotes Islamic extremism

Uganda: highest percentage

of youth bulge at 51% under

age 15

Nigeria currently 9th mostpopulous country (132 million)

will be 8th most populous in

2015 (163 million)

Transparency International:

Half of the 20 most corrupt

countries in the world are inAfrica

Afr ican Demog raphicsand Corrup t ion


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Religious Context


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United Nations (UN) and

Africa Union (AU) members

Maritime Organization for

West and Central Africa

(MOWCA)

Economic Community of

West African States

(ECOWAS)

Economic Community of

Central African States

(ECCAS)

Southern AfricanDevelopment Community

(SADC)

Political ContextMultilateral Organizations in the Region


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Political Context

Weak governance capacityafflicts most nation-statesin the region.

Democratization efforts

have been uneven.

Living standards have beenin relative decline.

Religious divisions haveaccentuated ethnic andeconomic factors asconflict motivators.


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Tipping Points

MigrationExtremist

inroads

Wars and serious

conflicts since 1994

Minimally

governed areas

Piracy and

Theft

Piracy and

Theft


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Military Context

Focus has been predominantly onarmy and internal security services.

Overall maritime capability is poor,even by developing world standards:small, undermanned, poorlyequipped, inadequately trained naval

components are largely inoperable.

Most countries are unable to copewith piracy, criminal enterprises, and

poaching, much less with terrorism.


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Liberia

Coastline: 579 km

No personnel since

2003

4 inoperable craft


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Ghana

Coastline: 539 km

1000 personnel

4 patrol craft

2 patrol aircraft


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Benin

Coastline: 121 km

200 personnel

5 patrol craft


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Nigeria

Coastline: 853 km

6700 personnel

1 frigate, 1corvette, 6 missile

boats, 5 maritimepatrol craft, 2aircraft, 17 coastalpatrol craft, and 50

riverine patrol craft


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Cameroon

Coastline: 402 km

1300 personnel

10 riverine patrolcraft, 6 harbor

patrol craft, 3maritime patrolcraft


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Equatorial Guinea

Coastline: 296 km

No personnel

No craft


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So Tom and Prncipe

Coastline: 209 km(142,563 km2 EEZ)

50 personnel

2 inflatable craft


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Gabon

Coastline: 885 km

600 personnel

3 coastal patrolcraft, 1 maritime

patrol craft


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Congo (Brazzaville)

Coastline: 169 km

800 personnel

12 riverine patrolcraft


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Democratic Republic of Congo

Coastline: 37 km

1300 personnel

5 patrol craft


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Angola

Coastline: 1600 km

2200 personnel

16 coastal patrolcraft, 5 landing

craft, 5 aircraft, 5helicopters, 11harbor craft


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Gulf of Guinea Maritime Traffic

Regionally: 40 ship departures perday, 280 per week.

Tankers: 11 per day, 76 per week

General cargo ships: 8 per day, 56 perweek

Container ships: 7 per day, 51 per week

Nigeria is most significant source ofmerchant traffic: 50 percent of

tanker departures, 57 percent of

Benin Nigeria


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Ghana

5 daily

Tema

Togo

2 daily

Lom

3 daily

Cotonou

Cameroon

3 daily

Douala

g

11 daily

Lagos

Warri

Port Harcour t

Calabar

Equatorial

Guinea

3 weekly

Malabo

Bata

Gabon

2 daily

Librevi l le

Congo

2 daily

Pointe Noire

DRC

1 daily

Banana

Angola

2 daily

Luanda

So Tom

andPrncipe

2 weekly

So Tom

Shipping Departures and

Major Port Locations


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Middle East Heroin toU.S. and Europe

Oil Bunkering

Cocaine from South America to

U.S. and Europe

Stolen Cars from U.S.

and Europe

Weapons Trafficking, Human

Trafficking, and other Illicit

Trade throughout the Region

Criminal Activities

Diamonds

Gl b l M iti T ffi Fl


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Global Maritime Traffic Flow


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Other Interested Parties

Ever-increasing economic,political, and militaryengagement of Africa bythe Peoples Republic ofChina and India (and

others) in search of:

Resources

Business opportunities

Diplomatic initiatives

Strategic partnerships


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Other Strategic Concerns

Developing multilateral institutions: African Union (AU),Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS),Southern African Development Community (SADC),Maritime Organization for West and Central Africa

(MOWCA), etc.

Potential for state failure, including the conflict in or evencollapse of regional pivots: Angola (Cabinda separatism),Nigeria (Igbo, Ijaw, and Yoruba nationalism; Islamismamong the Hausa and Fulani).

Spread of terrorist phenomena: Northern Nigeria, NigerDelta, South Africa.


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Strategic Guidance


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Naval Operations Concept(2006)

Traditional Missions Forward Naval Presence Crisis Response Expeditionary Power Projection Maritime Security Operations Sea Control Deterrence

New Missions Security Cooperation Civil-Military Operations

Counterinsurgency Counterterrorism Counter-Proliferation Air and Missile Defense Information Operations


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Specific Strategic Priorities

in the Gulf of Guinea

Maritime SecurityDetect, deter, interdict, anddefeat terrorist attacks, criminal acts, or hostileacts in the maritime domain, and prevent its

unlawful exploitation for those purposes.(ref. National Strategy for Maritime Security)

InfluenceThe power of producing effectswithout obvious exertion of force or direct

exercise of command. It requires the creation ofsecure and stable environments that nurtureenduring relationships and interdependencies.

(ref. CNO Strategic Studies Group XXIV)


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A Possible Response


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Global Fleet Station (GFS)

A hub where all manner of joint, interagency,international organizations, navies, coast guards and non-governmental organizations could partner together as aforce for good.

ADM Mike Mullen (CNO)

GFS is a persistent sea base of operations from which tocoordinate and employ adaptive force packages within aregional area of interest.

SOUTHCOM Website

The Global Fleet Stations (GFS) pilot program will serve as

a regional cornerstone for phase 0, Shaping and StabilityOperations. GFS supplies an adaptive force package thatsupports the 1,000-ship Navy with a persistent presence.

U.S. Navy Office of Information (CHINFO)


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Recent and Current Efforts

GFS Pilot Programs HSV-2 Swift(April-September 2007)

USS Fort McHenry(October 2007May 2008)

Humanitarian Assistance USS Emory S. Land(January-March 2005;

February-April 2006)

USNS Comfort(June-October 07)

USS Pelilieu(June-September 2007)
http://www.msc.navy.mil/inventory/pics/USNSComfort.jpg


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The Next Steps

Functional Area Analysis todetermine capabilities andrequirements for GFS, examiningmission areas, including: Peacetime Engagement Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Interagency and/or NGO Coordination

Functional Needs Analysis toweigh attributes in each missionarea, measure the attributes, and

determine capability vis--vis


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Questions?


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Contact Information

Dr. J. Peter PhamDirector

The Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs

James Madison University

MSC 1205

Harrisonburg, Virginia 22801

(540) 568.2281 (540) 568.2977 FAX

[email protected]

Weekly Strategic Interests Column on African Security Issues:

http://worlddefensereview.com/strategicinterests.shtml
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Dr. Pham Brief - Naval Power in Africa