Dr. Savas ALPAYDirector GeneralDr. Savas ALPAYDirector General

Real Progress ≈ Shared Progress

Real Progress ≈ Shared Progress

Statistical Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries

(SESRTCIC)

• A subsidiary organ of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC)

• The OIC was established in 1969 • It has now 57 member countries • It is the 2nd largest International

Organization after the UN• 27 members in Africa, 26 in Asia, 2 in Europe

and 2 in south America

World Forum

• Fostering the development of evidence-based public choice and facts-based civic dialogue.

• Improving the effectiveness of indicator work and their use for policy making.

• Fostering a global conversation about what progress actually means.

** OECD World Forum is an important undertaking.

Ensuring its Success

• A Carefully Designed Action Plan• Encompassing All Stakeholders • Desired Targets be strategically chosen and

transperancy be embedded throughout the Forum road map

• Enthusiasm, excitement and support from developing countries essential

Progress ?• National or Global? How to separate

and combine?

• Can one talk about Progress at the national level in the presence of global failures:

• Climate change — Global warming• Ozone layer depletion• Child labor explotation

Progress ?

Generations bequesting their descendants a more lively place to live, not new problems. What kind of progress are we talking about if future generations will have problems in even breathing clean air, and will have difficulty in access to clean drinking water!

Progress ?

• Equity Dimension ? (Inter-generational and Intra-generational)

• Incorporation of Externalities? (Is it acceptable to see natural resources as commodities and price them accordingly?)

Progress Shared ?

• As pointed out in the report of the UN Secretary General to the Millennium Assembly of the United Nations (2000), each state has a dual role in the global world, and this duality recognizes that each state not only bears responsibilities in relation to its own people but also collectively shares responsibility for the whole planet.

• Therefore, defining ‘Real Progress’ is not an easy task as it may appear.

Progress ?

• Given the uneasiness for the use of GDP as a measure of progress, new alternatives have been sought [ Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) ].

• As briefly touched upon, measuring progress requires a comprehensive approach.

• Millennium Development Goals is an attempt in the right direction !

Millennium Development Goals

• Requires a strong statistical database to identify whether the goals are being reached by the respective deadlines.

• The quest for reaching MDGs most notably showed that many developing countries need to start measuring a number of indicators: there is a significant data gap !

Economists have come to feel

What can’t be measured, isn’t real.

The truth is always an amount

Count numbers, only numbers count.

(Chambers 1997)

Better Statistics, Better Policy

• There is a strong need for Statistical Capacity Building

• Global imbalance in the capacity to build strong statistical infrastructure across the Developed and Developing Countries

• The potential for closing the gap in the near future ?

Global Imbalances• One of the most prevelant gaps between developed and

developing world is the current stance of Science and Technology in these countries. In fact, it can even be reasonably argued that almost all gaps between developed and developing world can be narrowed down by developing, managing and properly applying appropriate knowledge.

• It is almost impossible for any country to achieve and sustain prosperity and a high quality of life without ensuring a strong scientific infrastructure and a well-educated population.

• An important aspect and determinant of progress: Transition to knowledge-based economies and societies.

World GDP, Population, and R&D Expenditure and Personnel

Share of World Gross Expenditure on R&D, (2000)

Shares of World GERD, 2000. (Source: UIS 2003 estimates)

R&D Personnel in 2000. (Source UIS Estimates 2003)

Innovation Capacity

Not only current stance of research and development (R&D) activities results in huge differences in the current prosperity of nations, but also it has big impact on their future achievements. Innovation capacity and so the potential to develop new technologies immensely differs across nations, and it is not easy to determine the ways to make this process more equitable.

Nanotechnology !

NANOTECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTSNANOTECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS

Total Investment (world) in 2005: 6 Billion USD European Union: 4.8 Billion Euro for 7th Framework Projects South Africa: 170 million USD for next 3 years Israel: 230 million USD for next 5 years National Cancer Institute (USA): 143 million USD for next 5 years

Nanotechnology: Truly Outstanding Possibilities

• Enabling the blind to see, the lame to walk, and the deaf to hear;• Curing and preventing AIDS, cancer, diabetes and other

afflictions;• Ending hunger;• Providing clean, renewable, affordable energy;• Extending the length and the quality of life through the repair-

and eventually even the replacement-of failing organs• Repairing existing environmental damage;• Nanocomputers smaller than a bacterium;• Data storage devices with memory densities sufficient to store

the entire collection of the Library of Congress on a device the size of a sugar cube;

• Materials up to 100 times stronger than steel, at a fraction of the weight

NanotechnologyNanotechnology: : Economical ImpactEconomical Impact

Production cost < 10$ Selling Price: 10.000$ Total income in 2004: 3 Billion $ Total income in 2007 (expected): 11 Billion$ Largest local income item around Boston area (USA)

Heart Stent

Nanotechnology Will Have Very Big Impact On Economy

Global market for nano products could reach $1 trillion by 2015. Many countries including USA, Germany, Israel, Korea support nanotechnology research as a critical field due to huge economical impacts. In Israel, 45 nanotechnology companies have already started to selling nano-products. China started a program to educate 1 million scientist and engineers in nanotechnology related fields. China expects to get very big economical impact from their nanotechnology investments.

NanoNanobbiiotechnology: Treatment otechnology: Treatment oof Cancerf Cancer

CpG ODN: DNA

Nano capsul < 100nm

100

150

200

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50

10 20 30Days

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ize

(mm

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IL-13 toxin + (CpG ODN) LipoIL-13 toxincontrol

Scientist observed that 91% of mice are free of tumor after this treatment.

Under the circumstances, one can think of a new role for statisticians in monitoring the trends to identify new “technological developments” and new “revolutionary waves” (with supporting evidences from pertinent information) and channel this to decision-makers in a timely manner:

A non-conventional task for the statistician !

Thank you.