How does OBOR Strategy Facilitate Sino-ASEAN Ties?

Dr. Xue Li IWEP/CASS

Aim to achieve

a regional power with global influence into a comprehensive global power, OR realization of China’s renaissance ( China’s Dream in president Xi’s word)

How to do?Domestic dimension: (1)ideology:pay more attention to marxism;(2) organization: strengthen CPC authority

and solidarity;(3)culture:traditional Chinese culture;(4)economy: Yangzi River economic belt and

Jing-Jin-Ji collaborative development as two main engines; industries upgrading; New Normal, 6.5% until 2020;

Foreign dimensionRelocate China: from East Asia Country to

central country of Asia and the main power at the east part of the Eurasia continent

Adjust foreign policy: from humble policy(韬光养晦 ) to struggling for achievements(奋发有为 )

Top design for the dimension: OBOR strategy;

point: the USA; routes:6+2; area: Eurasia continent

China’s geographic location

Capability and demand for oborCapability:(1)Advantages in technology and manufacturing

industry;(2)Overcapacity in production: RMB 4 trillion

economy stimulating plan in 2008;(3)Foreign currency reserve: USD3.96 trillionDemand: (1)desire to development of the surrounding

countries;(2)China’s obligation to help SR countries;(3)China needs friends and markets

The way to carry out OBOREconomic cooperation is the Main Approach:(1)6 econmic corridors:BCIM, CPEC, CMR, NAELB,C-

CEPEC,C-CA-WAEC(2), 2 maritime routes: China-SCS-MS-IO-

ME,EA,MEDITERRANEAN, China-SCS-South Pacific countries

Measures to guarantee:(1) Trade aspect: bilateral/multilateral FTA, upgrading

Sino-ASEAN FTA, Sino-ASEAN Cooperation Fund, RCEP, FTAAP

(2) Financial institutions: Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Silk Road Fund, New Development Bank of BRICS, and planning SCO Development Bank

Six economic corridors?

Two MSR routes?

Other ways to cooperationPolitics and Security :(1) Regional Collective Security: CICA--

Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, M-26,O-13

(2)South China Sea Dispute:is China going to make compromise? It depends on ASEAN’s position on OBOR

ASEAN’S position in oborOne economic corridor; two Maritime Silk Road

routes; main platform for multilateral cooperation in economic, cultural,political, security and military fields

Cooperation with ASEAN: Core interest for China?

Function as a quasi–core interest with options

Why?

Category of National InterestsLayers Importance to

CountryAnalogy to Body

Core Interest key to the country’s survival

Brain/Heart

Important Interest issues have significant influence to the nation’s development

Arm/Leg

General Interest impacts on development or some functions

Finger/Toe

Secondary Interest issues have little influence to the whole state

Nail/Hair

China’s perspectiveOBOR: close to core interest for Xi Administration; One belt

—the peninsula; two roads—through SCS; ASEAN—the hub for two roads.

SCS dispute: close to important interest while Cooperation with ASEAN function as a quasi–core interest with options

Policy choice: emphasize on enlarging cooperation and common interest; diminish the impact from SCS dispute. It is necessary for Chine to make some compromise in SCS issue.

Evidence? Suzhou Conference, Dural track approach, five commitments

Dural track approachAnnounced by foreign minister Wang Yi at

Naypyidaw,Myanmar, in August 10, 2014

relevant disputes should be addressed by countries directly concerned through friendly consultations and negotiation in a peaceful way.

peace and stability in the South China Sea being jointly maintained by China and ASEAN countries.

Five commitments by Wang yi in August 3, Singapore(1) maintaining peace and stability in the

South China Sea(2) peacefully solving disputes through

negotiation and consultation(3) controlling differences through rules and

regulations.-ASEAN(especially claimants)(4) maintaining freedom of navigation and

overflight in the area(5) gaining mutual benefits through

cooperation.-China

ASEAN Claimant’s choicesConfrontation: bypassed

Vision and action in March, 2015, in which emphasizes cooperation through(1) consulting,co-constructing and sharing坚持共商共建共享

(2)help bridge the development plans between the silk road countries. 积极推进沿线国家发展战略的相互对接。

How to view Land reclamation?NO.1:　 The first step for further action:

ADIZ, EEZ, military deployment, Oil and Gas development,——what consequences?

NO. 2: to have appropriate presence in Spratly Islands in right time, which will be based for settlement , compromise,cooperation,etc.——better than NO. 1?

implicationGenerally speaking, the ball is on ASEAN

claimants’ side, especially those who are inclined to confront.

China needs to behave more positively ,and more actively responds to other claimants on issues such COC,

Potential fields to cooperation: Ocean Park, Bi&Multi fishery agreement, joint fishing ban,joint military exercise, etc

THE ENDPPT For “Maritime Silk Road and

International Relations in The South China Sea: Present Situation and Prospects”

Hilton Hotel, Hanoi, VietnamNovember, 26, 2015Question is welcome.