Draft Polar Bear Conservation

Management Plan

Meeting of the parties to the 1973 Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears

01-03 September 2015

Iluissat, Greenland

Context

Purpose of Plan

• ESA Recovery Plan

• MMPA Conservation Plan

• U.S. contribution to the Range States’ Circumpolar

Action Plan

Not a regulatory document

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Stakeholder engagement

Recovery planning started with a series of

facilitated stakeholder meetings (2010)

Recovery Team created to better engage key

stakeholders in development / implementation

(2013)

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Stakeholder engagement

Alaska Department of Fish and Game

Alaska Nanuuq Commission

Alaska Oil & Gas Association

Bureau of Land Management

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Canadian Wildlife Service

ConocoPhillips Alaska, Inc.

Defenders of Wildlife

Marine Mammal Commission

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

North Slope Borough

Polar Bear International

World Wildlife Fund

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

U.S. Geological Survey

Recovery Team includes representatives from the following agencies and

organizations:

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Context

Unique challenges• Species threatened with long-term extinction as

a result of climate change

• Ongoing take (including harvest) which is not

currently a threat

Main themes:• Means to communicate need to reduce global

GHG emissions

• Guiding document for sustainable co-

management of subsistence harvest in U.S.

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Process

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Plan Contents

Requirements

Objective, measurable criteria (aka “Recovery Criteria”) (values to measure progress in meeting the recovery goal)

Site-specific management actions (aka “Recovery Actions”)

Estimates of the time and cost to carry out the management actions

ESA Sec. 4(f)(1)(B): The elements above shall be included in each plan “to the maximum extent practicable.”

MMPA Sec. 115(b): Conservation plans shall be modelled on ESA recovery plans.

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Goals

Fundamental Goals

1,2,3. Secure polar bear persistence (range-wide, ecoregions, and

U.S. pops)

4. Recognize Native traditions/sustainable harvest

5. Manage human/bear interactions for human safety and bear

conservation

6. Conserve bears while minimizing restrictions on other activities

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Criteria: Three-tier Structure

Fundamental Objectives

Demographic Criteria

Threats Analysis

Most stable

Most likely to be

updated as new

information arises

Derivation: PVA (long-

term population model)

Derivation:

submodels of threats

uncertainty

uncertainty

Management Actions

Analysis: short-term

population models

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ESA Criteria

Recovery Criteria for de-listing

Worldwide probability of persistence is ≥ 95% over 100 yrs, and

Probability of persistence in each recovery unit is ≥ 90% over 100 yrs

(Proposes the 4 ecoregions be treated as recovery units)

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ESA Criteria

Demographic criteria (spatial scale: ecoregion/recovery unit; demographic

model)

Mean adult female survival rate

Ratio of yearlings to adult females

Expected pop size at carrying capacity

Total human-caused removal rate < hMNPL

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ESA Criteria

Threats-based criteria (3 categories: threats, potential threats, future

concerns)

Sea ice: duration of ice-free period

Impact of human-caused removals on probability of persistence

Disease & parasites: evidence of persistent infection

Potential future concerns: oil & gas activities, shipping, oil spills

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MMPA Criteria

Conservation Criteria

Subpopulation size above MNPL relative to carrying capacity

Health and stability of the marine ecosystem are maintained and polar bears

remain a “significant functioning element of the ecosystem”

Demographic criteria (at subpopulation level)

Rate of total human-caused removals maintain subpopulation above MNPL

relative to carrying capacity

Intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity (To be further developed.)

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Conservation Strategy

Most important action: limit global atmospheric levels of greenhouse

gases to appropriate levels

• Through regulatory, voluntary, or market-driven action to address the

anthropogenic causes of Arctic warming and abate the threat to polar

bears posed by sea ice loss.

• Primary action of Service/stakeholders related to GHG reduction will

be science/communication.

Suite of other high priority actions for near/mid-term.

• Geographic focus is on the U.S./Divergent Ecoregion; the other

Range States plans will address other ecoregions under the umbrella

of the Circumpolar Action Plan.

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Conservation Strategy

High priority conservation/recovery actions -- many of which are underway --

include:

Communicate the urgency of addressing GHG emissions

Support international conservation efforts

Manage human-bear conflicts

Collaboratively manage subsistence harvest

Protect denning habitat

Minimize risks of contamination from spills

Conduct strategic monitoring and research

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Conservation Strategy

Polar Bear Conservation Management Plan

Coordinating Committee

Monitoring Working Group Outreach Working Group Research Working GroupHuman-Polar Bear

Interaction Working Group

Recovery Implementation Team – to serve as a clearinghouse for sharing information

and leveraging resources.

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Next steps and timeline

July 06 Release Plan for public comment (45 days; subsequently

extended to 75 days). Plan available online at:

http://www.fws.gov/alaska/pbrt/

Sept 1-3 Present Draft Plan at the Range States Meeting

Sept 19 Close public comment period

Fall/Winter Review public comment

Recovery Team meeting

Prepare Final Plan

Publish Final Conservation Management Plan

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Thank you and discussion