Draft Strategy 6-10-09

RMP Modeling StrategyRMP Modeling Strategy

John Oram

Jay Davis

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

IntentIntent

• To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on – loads from watersheds,

– the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin,

– the recovery of the Bay as a whole

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

ApproachApproach

• To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Question 1 : Bay MarginsQuestion 1 : Bay Margins

• What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Question 2 : Bay RecoveryQuestion 2 : Bay Recovery

• What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Question 3 : Small Tributary LoadsQuestion 3 : Small Tributary Loads

• What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries?

• Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Some CommentsSome Comments• Need very specific details about the uses anticipated

by Water Board staff (and other stakeholders)  – ongoing, iterative, transparent process for

developing these questions, tracking various decision points

• Need milestones or decision points to make sure model outputs will be available at the right time for consideration by water board staff/managers.– Currently have ~5 year goal informing PCBs TMDL

v2.0 

• Need a clear narrative describing what we already know, how the proposed work could expand that, what it will take to get there– To be addressed as part of Margins Conceptual Model

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : CoordinationStrategy : Coordination

• Establish (or Participate in) a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will– guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and

interpretation of models

– improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders

– reduce duplication of efforts

– improve the overall quality of modeling products

• Will Participate in CeNCOOS Forum Aug 6-7, 2009

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

• Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

• What is a flexible grid anyway?– An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

# cells 44,148

cell size Curvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km

dt (min) 1.0 - 0.1

Curvilinear Grid

Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Bay & Margins ModelStrategy : Bay & Margins Model

SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound

Unstructured Grid

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds

• Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models)

• Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team– These groups will provide project oversight as well.

• Implement field studies to fill information gaps– 2010 funding proposed to identify information gaps

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Strategy : Local WatershedsStrategy : Local Watersheds

Example: Guadalupe Watershed Model

Draft Strategy 6-10-09

Task Questions 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bay & Margins Modeling

Margins Conceptual Model 1 $40,000*

Sediment Transport Conceptual Model 1,2,3 $25,000

South Bay Water and Sediment Model 1,2 $100,000

Fieldwork to support South Bay Hotspot / Tributary Modeling

1,2 $50,000

Conceptual biota model 1,2 $40,000

Hotspots and Tributary modeling in South Bay (Water, Sediment, Contaminant, Biota)

1 $100,000

Extend Model to Larger Bay (Water and Sediment) 1,2 $100,000

Add Contaminants and Biota to Larger Bay Model 1,2 $140,000

Watershed Modeling

Guadalupe Watershed Model 3 $75,000* $75,000*

Gathering Data Needed for Watershed Modeling a) Scoping of Needs Regarding “Land Use” sites b) Monitoring

$30,000 $100,000? $100,000? $100,000?

Dynamic Watershed Modeling in a Selected Representative Wat ershed

$150,000

Additional Watershed Model 3 $75,000

Large Scale Watershed Model (2014) 3

Coordination

Participation in or development of a Bay Area Modeling Forum

1,2,3 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000

* = currently funded by RMP