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8/10/2019 Dragon Dance in India’s Ocean
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/dragon-dance-in-indias-ocean 1/4
Dragon Dance In India’s Ocean
The suicide bombing coincided with the arrival of a new ISI chief at the
helm, appointed with scant disregard to the India-leaning Sharif, who
attempted to run with the Indian hare as well as the Chinese hound
| b !eena "opal
# !ovember $, %&'(, !ew Delhi, Sri )an*a "uardian+ arel si wee*s after a Chinese
submarine doc*ed in Colombo port in mid-September this ear, the .ahinda
/a0apa*sa government is clearl coc*ing a snoo* at Delhi, in allowing a second
Chinese submarine to doc* in Sri )an*an waters this wee*1It ma not be a nuclear attac* submarine, but it is part of the Chinese !av’s growing
fleet, man armed with long range missiles, one of which surfaced in these waters
earlier this ear while on its wa to the "ulf1
The fact that it showed up at all, for the second time, when it could have staed
underwater, undetected for months to come, underlines China’s immediate intent to
flag its displeasure with 2rime .inister !arendra .odi’s government, and as part of
its long-term strateg to undermine India in its own waters1 In India’s Ocean1
3nli*e the previous .anmohan Singh government, .r .odi has swiftl conveed his
8/10/2019 Dragon Dance in India’s Ocean
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displeasure in the strongest terms to Colombo, where ties are alread tested b a Sri
)an*an court’s decision to award the death penalt to five fishermen from Tamil !adu,
charged with drug traffic*ing1 The court ruling, onl adding to the long list of irritants
between the two countries, with India voting against Sri )an*a in the 3nited !ations
4igh Commissioner for /efugees #3!4C/+ ruling on human rights violations against
the separatist Tamil Tigers in their death throes on the battlefield1 It’s something, the/a0apa*sa government has clearl not been able to get past1
The arrival of the Chin-ese sub, despite strong words to Sri )an*an defence secretar
"otabhaa /a0-apa*sa when the first sub doc*ed on September '5, #even as Indian
2resident 2ranab .u*her0ee was in 6ietnam and .r .odi had instructed troops to
hold their ground when the Chinese destroed Indian 7rm tents in Chumar+
therefore, is indicative that the Chinese leadership ma have found more than a willing
partner in Colombo, to score points off its larger neighbour1
ei0ing was furious with the 6ietnamese 2rime .inister !guen Tan Dung leaving our
shores after an official visit, with the Indian made rah.os anti-ship, supersonic
cruise missile deal tuc*ed, metaphoricall, under his belt1
"iven 4anoi’s propensit to give China a blood nose in battles past, this is .r .odi’s
India, finall turning 4anoi into Delhi’s eastern vanguard, part of the grand plan to
ma*e the new leadership in ei0ing, thin* twice before it barrels its wa into the
disputed South China Sea, appropriating an more islands than it alread las claims
to1
The submarine is ei0i-ng’s activation of its cat’s paw in .r /a0apa*sa’s Colombo, a
wa*e-up call that our new 2rime .inister ignores at his peril1
The Indian leader’s priorit therefore, as he heads for a landmar* visit to urma for an
7sean meet on !ovember '%-'8, and then on to the "-%& in 7ustralia the wee* after,
and the Saarc summit in 9athmandu on !ovember %%, must be to carve out his own
:coalition of the willing; as a first step towards securing India’s maritime boundaries1
.r .odi has the opportunit here to overturn the previous government’s puss-footing on ei0ing, and craft a new strateg to tac*le the Chinese’s barel concealed
hostilit and belligerence couched in platitudes, that is part of the foreign polic matri
towards its *e 7sian rival1 It is onl .r .odi who can snap the noose of pearls that
China tightened around India’s nec* as the .anmohan Singh government do<ed1
The fall-out from .r .odi’s newl muscular foreign polic with another Chinese pats,
2a*istan, where Indian soldier have for wee*s now met fire with fire over cross-
8/10/2019 Dragon Dance in India’s Ocean
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border firings = hitherto not a part of India’s strateg to counter 2a*istan = has, it
must be said, had the unintended conse>uence of gravel wea*ening the standing of
the elected government of 2rime .inister !awa< Sharif1
The Sharifs had predicated their :third coming; in the hope that trade with India, on
the cusp of an economic boom, would strengthen their support base in a 2a*istan, where the militar had seemed to ta*e a bac* seat1
4owever, faced with the prospect of reclaiming its clout in 7fghanistan and where
India has much goodwill = the 2a*istan 7rm is done with sitting in the barrac*s1
7s its covert support to its pawn, the Imran 9han-led Tehree*-i-Insaf demonstrates,
and the multiple fronts it has opened up on its own territor against a home-grown
Taliban, as well as 7fghanistan, and now Iran, the :deep state; will do everthing in its
power to limit the rise of the Sharifs, on the bac* of a resurgent India1
In fact, if Sunda’s suicide bomber on the ?agah border had detonated himself on the
Indian side as he had apparentl planned, ties between India and the civilian
government in 2a*istan, would have been irreparabl damaged1 If, it isn’t alread1
The suicide bombing, incidentall, coincided with the arrival of a new ISI chief at the
helm, appointed with scant disregard to the India-leaning 2rime .inister Sharif, who
attempted to run with the Indian hare as well as the Chinese hound1
.ost Sri )an*a hands believe, similarl, that the Sri )an*an 2resident /a0apa*sa’splaing ball with the Chinese has a great deal to do with India’s own feeble diplomac,
its unwillingness to turn a s*ewed trade imbalance in Colombo’s favour, pushing
Colombo to reach out to the Chinese to revive their war-ravaged econom1 The bu<< is
that 2resident /a0apa*sa also believes he can win re-election on an anti-India plan*
and could push for an earl presidential poll this coming @anuar1
Through %&&5-%&'%, ever since .r /a0apa*sa was elected 2resident, China, pumped in
A(1$ billion into ma0or infrastructure pro0ects including building and operating the
South Container Terminal at the A'1( billion Colombo 2ort Cit pro0ect1
Chinese funds into Sri )an*a for the last two ears alone is set at A%1'B billion, with
analsts saing that of the total assistance in %&&5-%&'8, onl two per cent is a grant1
?ith the rest, a loan, )an*an Opposition leaders, including the powerful uddhist
clerg have alread started a whisper campaign against the government on the dangers
posed to the nation’s independence and sovereignt, if the government cannot service
its debt1
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?hile Sri )an*a sas there is no Chinese militar involvement on the island, India
would do well to reach out to the /a0apa*sas, particularl the powerful defence
secretar, the 2resident’s pointman on India, and ma*e it clear that unli*e the time
when former 2re-sident reportedl allowed the Sirimavo andaranai*e 2a*istan !av
free transit to Dha*a, at the height of the '$' angladesh war, India under .r .odi,no longer an absentee power, will not countenance an enem in its waters1
2osted b Thavam