Driverless Cars and the Costs of Sprawlgrowthandinfrastructure.org/.../tindale-driverless.pdf · Recent Headlines Driverless Cars 1. Volkswagen 2019 6. GM: 2020 or sooner 2. BMW iNext

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Driverless Cars

and the Costs of Sprawl

October 17 - 19, 2018


Automated

Connected

Electric

Shared

2

Technology in Transportation


Adoption speed affected by:

• Availability

• Cost of features

• Local socio-economic factors

• Ownership and preferences

• Fleet turnover

• Needed infrastructure upgrades

• Liability & other legal issues

• Wildcard issues – social, economic, political, etc.

3


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Transportation Technology - Electric

Conditions affecting EV impact:

• Policy

• Incentives

• Declining vehicles cost

• Range and recharging limits

• Charging supply

• Competition from existing or alternative technologies

Average penetration of EV in light duty national vehicle stock:

2020: 1% 2030: 7% 2040: 33%

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; OPEC World Outlook; Florida Solar Energy Center, et al


Will people really give up their car?

5

Transportation Technology


Transportation Technology - Adoption

If I asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”- Henry Ford


Technology - Adoption

Source: Michael Felton, The New York Times


Florida Activities


Source: http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384

9

Technology in TransportationRecent Headlines Driverless Cars

1. Volkswagen 2019 6. GM: 2020 or sooner

2. BMW iNext in 2021 7. Toyota 2020

3. NVIDIA by 2018 8. Ford CEO by 2021

4. Audi 2020 9. NuTonomy self driving taxi service in Singapore by 2018

5. Delphi and MobilEye by 2019 10. Uber fleet to be driverless by 2030.


• These changes could:

− Completely change the automobiles

10

Technology – Automated

This graphic image is from www.bing.com and licensed under CC BY

This graphic image is from Einride

http://www.bing.com/

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


Technology - Connected

Applications

• Safety Critical Warnings

• Mobility Enhancements

• Environmental Benefits

• 55+ specific applications/uses defined by USDOT

Data Gathering/ Information Exchange

• Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I)

• Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V)

• Vehicle-to-Bike/Ped/Other (V2X)

Safety critical functions of the vehicle

(steering/throttle) not affected (operator is in control

at all times)

Enhanced Situational Awareness


Technology – Connected

SIGNAL PHASE AND TIMING

(SPaT)


• Bloomberg forecasts electric vehicles will

account for more than half of all new light-duty

vehicles by 2040

• Volvo will stop developing internal combustion

only engines in 2019

• France made pledge to phase out all gasoline

and diesel engines by 2040

• Proterra has a back order of over 300 all

electric busses in US right now

• Approximately 66% of FDOT’s Work

Program comes from some form of gas tax

13

Technology - Electric


Transportation Technology Economics: Decrease in Value of 1¢ of Fuel Tax

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

1.100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fuel Efficiency

Fuel Efficiency & Inflation

≈ -17%

≈ -52%

State

Local


• Uber Pool now makes up over

half the Uber trips in San

Francisco after only 2 years

• FDOT study of Implications of

Shared Autonomous Vehicles for

Fixed Route Transit

15

Technology - Shared

Source: Mercedes Benz

(mbusa.com/mercedes/future/model/model-All_New_F015_Luxury)


Technology - Shared

Fixed-route service is more advantageous to society even when ridership is

very low

SAVs may provide a way for agencies to increase overall system

effectiveness

As fares fall, SAVs become more advantageous to taxpayers

Fixed-route transit remains a greater value to customers until Transportation

Network Companies (TNC) fares drop well below today’s levels

Society

Agency

Taxpayer

Customer

Findings


Bus Operating Expenses (Shared)

66.1%

33.9%

Bus Operating Expenses

Salaries, Wages, Benefits Services, Materials, Other

Source: American Public Transportation Association, 2017


• Why is this important

− Tomorrow’s infrastructure will be built by partnerships

− Regions that aren’t Smart will be the new Digital Rust Belt

− Adoption can help with Digital inequities

▪ No high speed internet can limit ability to find new jobs

▪ Those without cell phones or credit cards can’t use TNCs

− Can help alleviate future congestion

− Impact on Land Use and Affordable Housing

18

Transportation Technology


• Segregation/Social Mobility

• Transportation and Employment

Access

• Economic Development

• Development Trends

• Cost of Infrastructure

• Quality of Life/Multi-Generational

Community

Why should we care?


• These changes could:− Impact the designs that we develop▪ Parking Space Size

✓Reduced width (doors don’t need to open)

✓ Varied sizes to fit specific vehicle types

▪ Parking Lot Location

✓No spaces within 300’ of building entrances?

✓On-street parking repurposed

✓ Passenger drop off/pick up lanes at building entrance

(similar to airport design)

✓Nests and Hives

✓ Zombie Tax

▪ Development Patterns

✓Higher density requirements may be more attainable

✓ Lobby Redesign

20

Transportation Technology - Land Use

Blue Polygons = Parking

“We cannot solve problems with the same thinking used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein.


Transportation Technology - Land Use

POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON LAND DESIGN

Before

After

Source: Florida State University

Before

After


Key Characteristics

5D’s• Destination Accessibility• Design• Diversity• Distance to Transit• Density

Economics

Enhanced Revenues

Reduce Costs and Environmental Impacts


Density/Design Example

Status Quo

Example Community ~2 du/acre/6 sq. miles

Fire Station

ElementarySchool

Middle School

High School

1/3

1/2

1/10

1/10

Transit Service Threshold Level

Dwelling Unit Density Threshold

Minimum 4.50 – 5.99 du/acre

High 6.00 – 7.99 du/acre

Very High ≥ 8.00 du/acre

2 Du/Acre6 Sq. Miles



Maximize Allowable Density4 du/gross acre/6 sq. Miles

Fire Station

ElementarySchool

Middle School

High School

1

2

1/2

1/2Transit Service

Threshold LevelDwelling Unit Density

Threshold




Transit Service Density Thresholds

4 Du/Acre6 Sq. Miles



Increase Allowable Density8 du/gross acre/6 sq. miles

Fire Station

ElementarySchool/Parks

Middle School

High School

2

4

1

Transit Service Threshold Level

Dwelling Unit Density Threshold




Transit Service Density Thresholds

1

8 Du/Acres6 Sq. Miles


Residential Density 2010


Residential Density, 2010

Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre)

Source: H+T Affordability Index


Florida Development

Florida Urban Fixed-Route Systems

Rail Line

Airport

Port

1-9 peak vehicles

10-49 peak vehicles

50-200 peak vehicles

>200 peak vehicles

Density



Rail Line

Airport

Port


67 Counties Ranking

Income per Capita (2016) Taxable Value per Capita (2018)

= $44,500 to $88,000

= $36,300 to $44,500

= Less than $36,300

= $93,000 to $350,000

= $55,000 to $93,000

= Less than $55,000

Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre)


67 Counties Ranking

Sales Tax (1%) per Capita (2018)Fuel Tax (1Cent/Gallon) per Capita

(2018)

= $177 to $520

= $125 to $177

= Less than $177

= $13.50 to $42.00

= $6.00 to $13.50

= Less than $6.00

Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre) Density (>1.8 HH per Res. Acre)



Source: H+T Affordability Index


National Trends


National Trends

Home Price-to-Income Ratios, 2017

= 3 to 4

= 4 to 5

= 5 to 8


Automated

Connected

Electric

Shared

35



Understand Components (ACES)

• CES First and then A Slower (Private Autonomous Slower)

• Electric Impact on Gas Tax Revenues

• Liability & other legal issues (Bump In The Road)

• Connected and Shared Significant Efforts in Florida

• Local socio-economic factors

36

Technology in TransportationSummary


Understand Components (ACES)

• Shared Routes Can Fit in With Density (Sprawl) and Affordability

• Shared Routes Effectively deal with Costs

• Must Start Considering Infrastructure Design

• Needed infrastructure upgrades

• Autonomous Individual longer term Issue

• Wildcard issues – social, economic, political, etc.

37



Understand Sprawl and History

• Transportation Created the Original Density

• Need to understand “Sprawl”

• Demographics and Economics

• The Auto Created Ability to “Sprawl

38



Understand Sprawl and History

• Can Connected and Shared Autonomous • Be used Effectively

• Supplement Efficient Shared Transport

• Will autonomous Accelerate Sprawl• Governments Role in Answer?

39



National Trends


1-9 peak vehicles

10-49 peak vehicles

50-200 peak vehicles

>200 peak vehicles

Rail Line

Airport

Port

Work in Progress


National Trends


Rail Line

Airport

Port

Work in Progress


• Median Rent is Increasing

• # of Renters is Increasing

− 40% across major metros

• % Rent Burden is Increasing

− 24.7% in 1970

− 35.7% in 2000

− 46.0% in 2015

• Higher Income Households are

Renting

42

National Trends


National Trends


• Opportunity for Public Investment Savings

− Public school sites

▪ Provide park amenities, reduce need for other parks

▪ Proximity to residential increases walk-ability

− Fire station location

▪ Critical to response time

− Transit Ridership Efficiencies

− Denisity and Design Efficiencies

44



• Why is this important

− Impact on future land use

− Impact on Economics and Finance

− Regions that aren’t Smart will be the new Digital Rust Belt

− Impact on Affordable Housing

45

Transportation Technology - Economics


• Impact on Capital Costs of Shared Rides

− Graph showing Capital costs of Shared Rides vs. Utilization

46



• Impact on Operating Costs of Shared Rides

− Graph showing Operating costs of Shared Rides vs. Utilization

47



• Impact on Operating Costs of Shared Rides

− Pie Chart showing Labor Costs Percent of Total Costs

48





FDOT – UF – Gainsvile AUTO BUS

Documents

Driverless Cars and the Costs of Sprawlgrowthandinfrastructure.org/.../tindale-driverless.pdf · Recent Headlines Driverless Cars 1. Volkswagen 2019 6. GM: 2020 or sooner 2. BMW iNext