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Industry focus Driving value with lifecycle costing Global economy: Optimism tempered by uncertainties Tense times as Gulf economies cope with far-reaching and fundamental change Commodities price analysis September 2017 Middle East Issue #15

Driving value with lifecycle costingDriving value with lifecycle costing Global 3 8 5 10 Content [email protected] Welcome to Insight #15. In this edition we take another close

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Page 1: Driving value with lifecycle costingDriving value with lifecycle costing Global 3 8 5 10 Content enquiries@curriebrown.com Welcome to Insight #15. In this edition we take another close

Industry focusDriving value with lifecycle costing

Global economy:Optimism tempered by uncertainties

Tense times as Gulf economies cope with far-reaching and fundamental change

Commodities price analysis

September 2017 Middle East Issue #15

Page 2: Driving value with lifecycle costingDriving value with lifecycle costing Global 3 8 5 10 Content enquiries@curriebrown.com Welcome to Insight #15. In this edition we take another close

2September 2017 www.curriebrown.com [email protected]

Global economy: Optimism tempered by uncertainties

Price analysis

Tense times as Gulf economies cope with far-reaching and fundamental change

Driving value with lifecycle costing

Global

3

8

5

10

Content

[email protected]

Welcome to Insight #15.

In this edition we take another close look at current trends in the global economy and how they may have an impact on you and your business, wherever you are in the Gulf region.

Economic recovery continues across key world markets, although it is sluggish in most regions, due to a mixture of global and regional factors, according to recent notable studies. The Middle East is among those regions whose economies are experiencing significant structural change while continuing to feel the impact of lower oil prices.

Observers remain cautious, despite signs of continued overall progress. The 2008 global crash is at the root of that caution, as economists are increasingly reluctant to make firm predictions of growth, given that such forecasts have proven themselves short-lived during the intervening decade.

Recent months have underlined the trend. The World Bank’s global economic review this summer was titled ‘A Fragile Recovery’. Soon afterwards, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published the more optimistic ‘A Firming Recovery’.

Both forecasts do point in the same positive direction, but remain distinctly wary of predicting growth.

This edition of Insight also takes a look at the growing trend towards assessing construction projects using lifecycle costing (LCC). The industry’s understanding of the value of LCC and how it works has improved substantially in western economies over the last 15-20 years. Various professional disciplines have developed sophisticated measures to assess the true ‘through-life’ cost of projects.

The approach takes on new vitality in Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and broader Middle Eastern markets, where private and public sector clients are adopting increasingly complex approaches to funding, including public-private partnerships (PPPs) and other measures.

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3September 2017 www.curriebrown.com [email protected]

Global forecasters remain positive about current economic growth at the macro level, but their optimism has been tempered by uncertainties in the US, the UK and the Middle East, and growing concern over activity in North Korea.

Much of the caution stems from continued apprehension in mature markets such as the US and the UK, whose fortunes both seem uncertain because of political rather than economic developments.

The Trump administration’s failure to date to introduce fiscal changes in the US, and the UK’s so-far difficult negotiations with the European Union over Brexit, have prompted forecasters to revise expectations.

The IMF downgraded the UK forecast in July for the first time since the referendum in June 2016 over continuing membership of the EU. It now expects the British economy to expand by only 1.7 per cent during 2017, 0.3 points below the forecast of just three months earlier. The IMF’s expectation for 2018 is a low-growth 1.5 per cent. The organisation says that one key risk facing the global economy is that Brexit might end in failure.

Similarly, the uncertainties of the first period of the Trump administration have prompted a reduced forecast of growth in the US to 2.1 per cent for both 2017 and 2018.

Global

Global economy: Optimism tempered by uncertainties

Global

The World Bank expects regional economic growth to fall to 2.1 per cent during 2017, citing oil price fluctuation and recent geo-political tensions as areas of concern.

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Global

The IMF is, however, predicting that overall growth in 2017 will reach 3.5 per cent, with a slight improvement next year. This is being driven largely by steadier recovery in the larger EU economies – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – and the Asia-Pacific economies.

According to the IMF’s research director and economic counsellor Maurice Obstfeld, ‘there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum. The distribution of this growth around the world has changed, however; some economies are up but others are down, offsetting those (previous) improvements.’

Once again, world growth is being led by the Asia-Pacific economies, but not only by China, which has experienced a gradual slowdown, albeit with a growth rate that remains above six per cent.

The situation is less rosy in the Gulf region, where policy makers continue to grapple with fundamental economic change. The World Bank expects regional economic growth to fall to 2.1 per cent during 2017, citing oil price fluctuation and recent geo-political tensions as areas of concern. If these issues stabilise, the Bank expects the region to perform more strongly during 2018, rising to 2.9 per cent.

These tensions – especially in Iraq, Syria and Yemen – have continued throughout recent months. Addressing the risks arising, the Bank comments: ‘Security tensions and conflict in Iraq and Syria are serious hindrances. Conflict has led to destruction, displacement and famine in Yemen. Although sovereign risk has been declining among members of the GCC, conflict-driven uncertainty is a vulnerability for this group.’

It goes on to warn: ‘A less-than-expected increase in oil prices – whether due to increase in shale oil production or weaker compliance with OPEC production cuts – would reduce fiscal space in oil exporters and weigh on confidence.’

Even in the higher-growth Asia-Pacific region, the World Bank warns of external risks to the economy, including ‘heightened policy uncertainty’ in the US, and in Europe. A rising political trend that embraces the rhetoric of increased protectionism, tighter immigration rules and disruption to existing trade, indicates potential disruption in local markets, caused by such external factors, which could interfere with spending and investor confidence.

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The main economies of the Gulf are reducing expenditure as part of new policy stemming from government-level determination to diversify. However, the ongoing changes are challenging and will take time to become established.

This is the conclusion of observers and economists, who are predicting another period of lower-than-usual growth in the region. The World Bank notes that growth across the Middle East has been held back by oil production cuts, consolidation, and regional conflicts. Its risk assessment says that these three factors could continue to have an impact over the next year.

Despite those issues, the Gulf Co-operation Council states continue to promote high-profile construction projects, particularly in energy and infrastructure. The difference is in the trend towards privatisation and the adoption of alternative procurement models, mainly around western-style public-private partnerships (PPPs).

As Insight went to press, the trade embargo on Qatar by other GCC countries continues without resolution, with the situation being watched closely by the private sector across the region. Nine countries, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), continue the embargo, while attempts at reconciliation continue.

The move towards PPP is reflected in a range of projects, with the field led by transportation, energy and healthcare. Significant growth is also noted in the renewables sector, with several Gulf states making serious investments in solar energy as part of the diversification from oil. Middle East Business Intelligence (MEED) estimates that 67 gigawatts of clean energy projects worth an estimated US$200 billion are at various stages across the Gulf.

MEED also reported that contract awards spiked during August following several quiet months, thanks in no small part to a busy month for Oman, which awarded deals worth US$5.9 billion. The total value of contracts for the month was US$15 billion, nearly twice the total across the GCC for July. MEED estimates that there are US$45.8 billion-worth of projects at the main bid stage, with a further US$800 billion under study. Contract awards in KSA and the UAE remain ‘flat’, according to the analysis.

Trade Arabia has calculated that a total of 37 mega-hospital projects are at various stages of progress within the Gulf, which are worth a total of US$28.2 billion and will add 22,500 beds to existing capacity.

Tense times as Gulf economies cope with far-reaching and fundamental change

Regional

OPEC Basket price

September 2017 US$ 52.70

July 2017US$ 46.93

May 2017US$ 49.20

US$ 51.37

August 2017US$ 49.60

June 2017US$ 45.21

April 2017

Middle East Business Intelligence (MEED)

estimates that 67 gigawatts of clean

energy projects worth an estimated US$200

billion are at various stages across the Gulf.

Regional

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Regional

Alpen Capital noted that major health projects include Burjeel Medical City (Abu Dhabi), Mediclinic Parkview (Dubai) and Al Amal Mental Health Hospital (KSA).

Significantly, given the more difficult trading conditions of recent months, the Gulf is now home to the highest number of construction claims in the world, according to the Institute of Construction Claims Practitioners (ICCP). ‘The way that we do things out here, in my opinion, encourages claims, as we insist on projects being done as quickly as possible. And that is just a breeding ground for these types of disputes,’ ICCP executive Andy Hewitt told Construction Week.

Meanwhile, more than 40 per cent of respondents have told MEED that late payments are worsening this year. The survey, which included architects, engineering firms and contractors, showed that the worst situation concerned private sector rather than government clients.

Such difficulties combine with the geo-political hurdles of sluggish oil prices, regional conflicts in Yemen, Iraq and Syria, and fiscal difficulties to present a picture of uncertainty in the Gulf. Yet the fact remains that numerous contracts, projects and future plans remain ‘live’.

In Kuwait, the Port Authority is seeking bids for road and facilities management at its three sites in Shuwaikh, Doha and Shuaiba. It also plans to restart procurement for the previously-stalled Mubarak al-Kabeer port project.

Qatar Rail has extended its deadline for a 20km addition to the Doha Metro Green Line. Six international consortia, including contractors from Greece, Spain, Austria, France and Italy, have been shortlisted.

KSA is, in many respects, leading the rush towards privatisation and the use of PPP. The Kingdom’s endorsement of new policies has been driven primarily by the impact

of its strategic decision to take on the US shale gas producers by allowing oil prices to fall (in agreement with its fellow OPEC members). A new generation of policy-makers wants to use the situation to modernise the Saudi Arabian economy, to vary procurement methods and to evaluate high-cost projects by their social and economic utility.

The Saudi Arabian government predicted that all of the Kingdom’s airports will have set out on a road to privatisation during the year ahead, using a transfer of assets to the Public Investment Fund. The Civil Aviation Authority head, Abdul Hakim Al-Tamimi, told journalists that airport assets would be transferred into a state-owned holding company with the aim of selling stakes in the businesses to private operators and investors over a period of time.

The aim is ‘to improve the level of services provided to passengers, and to convert the targeted sectors into a profitable centre to cover costs and to be a source of income for the owner’, stated Al-Tamimi. His organisation envisages a mix of procurement methods and management collaboration, including the sale of minority stakes, PPP and ‘build, operate and transfer’ agreements.

Source: Stefan Krasowski, Creative Commons

Andy Hewitt Source:www.constructionclaimsclass.com/about/people/

The Saudi Arabian government predicted that all of the Kingdom’s airports will have set out on a road to privatisation during the year ahead, using a transfer of assets to the Public Investment Fund.

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Regional

He commented that the authority would be the ‘regulator and controller of the aviation sector in the next phase, in the event of concluding the privatisation process’. KSA has hired Goldman Sachs to manage the sale of a stake in King Khalid International Airport, the first such privatisation, according to Reuters.

Banque Saudi Fransi is concluding the US$600 million financing of a three-airport project to a Turkish-Saudi venture that will design, build and operate a new passenger terminal at Prince Abdul Mohsin bin Abdul Aziz Airport, and redevelop airports at Qassim and Hail.

The Kingdom has also announced a new PPP airport project serving Jubail Industrial City and Jubail 2 in the east of the country. This will be the sixth airport PPP in the country, bringing the number of airports to 28. KSA’s first PPP-procured airport, the US$1.2 billion Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz at Medina, was fully commissioned in 2015.

KSA is now planning to extend PPP to rail infrastructure with four urban metro and light rail schemes at Makkah, Jeddah, Medina and Dammam. Rail network privatisation could follow a

similar pattern to current planned changes in the airport sector.

PPP funding is ‘the way of the future for many projects in the Middle East’, according to Mathew Shimmy of KBW Investments. He told Construction Week: ‘[PPP] is a great way for the private sector to shoulder some of the burden of financing and to help deliver a huge variety of infrastructure projects here, a burden that has traditionally been the domain of local government.’

Despite various uncertainties, the UAE also remains a hive of intense activity. Trade Arabia has reported that the top ten commercial and retail projects in the Gulf are based in the UAE, with Dubai still attracting particular regional and international interest.

The publication also found that the total value of UAE transport projects – 481 of them – received a total value of US$87.6 billion during the first half of 2017.

Dubai’s confidence is driven partly by its continuing success as a tourist destination. Overnight visitors during 2016 topped 15 million, a five per cent increase. 40 per cent of them came from the major markets of the UK,

Germany, India and the rest of the Gulf, while total spending grew by 7.6 per cent.

His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum recently told Reuters that success will continue to be driven by capital investment projects. As an example, he pointed out that nearly 50 contract awards are expected in relation to Expo 2020 alone. ‘Dubai is planning a major and increasingly sophisticated role in regional and global value chains through transport, distribution, marketing services and research and development,’ he added.

As outlined in Saudi Vision 2030, KSA’s growth plan, the Kingdom is expanding the Two Holy Mosques in order to accommodate 30 million Umrah visitors each year, up from the current annual figure of 8 million religious tourists. The US$16.5 billion Haramein high-speed rail link between Makkah and Medina is due to start operations in 2018, while the Public Investment Fund is also planning a major tourist destination on the Red Sea coast, encompassing 200km of coastline with a vision to create 35,000 jobs and contribute US$4 billion to the economy each year.

Source: https://www.visitdubai.com/en/tourism-performance-report

Americas6%

SouthAsia

18%

GCC20%MENA

11%

EasternEurope7%

WesternEurope20%

Africa5% Australasia

2%

North Asia andSouth East Asia

11%

Total International Guests

9.20 M 8.40 M2017 2016

Dubai visitor performance data

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Price analysis

2016 2017Commodities Unit Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Non-ferrous metalsAluminium alloy US$/tonne 1,574.27 1,648.28 1,661.90 1,689.83 Aluminium US$/tonne 1,749.42 1,897.03 1,951.97 2,019.64 Copper US$/tonne 5,307.21 5,847.78 5,722.10 6,304.01 Lead US$/tonne 2,171.89 2,255.26 2,174.03 2,338.89 Nickel US$/tonne 10,991.02 10,594.05 9,563.54 10,455.06 Tin US$/tonne 20,649.65 19,934.37 19,804.76 20,191.05 Zinc US$/tonne 2,468.65 2,600.74 2,510.18 2,773.40 Steel Reinforcing bars US$/tonne 413.33 445.00 433.33 497.50 Steel beams - channel US$/tonne 523.33 556.67 570.00 632.50 Hot rolled plates US$/tonne 473.33 521.67 485.00 562.50 Cold rolled coils US$/tonne 561.67 628.33 530.00 595.00 Prepainted galvanised steel, 0.35 US$/tonne 673.33 785.00 761.67 852.50 Stainless steel HR coils 304 base US$/tonne 2,158.33 2,258.33 2,058.33 2,212.50 EnergyCrude oil US$/barrel 47.46 52.03 48.58 48.19 Diesel (Dubai only) US$/gallon 6.91 7.52 7.39 7.04 CementCement US$/bag 3.62 3.66 3.74 3.76 Cement (Dubai suppliers) AED/m3 13.39 13.56 13.83 13.92 RubberRubber US$/100kg 187.02 228.93 217.00 213.45 Bitumen 60/70Bitumen US$/tonne 493.24 493.24 493.24 493.24

■ Non-ferrous metal prices are derived from London Metal Exchange, whereas steel prices are derived from Middle East steel price indications; all based on average prices for the month.

■ The price of rubber is derived from International Rubber Board, based on average prices for the month.

■ All prices for commodities are based on bulk quantities, cash trade, US dollar.

■ Where ranges have been provided, an average price has been assumed for the purpose of comparison.

■ The rate for beams - channels has been derived from Far East/Europe/India market.

■ Cement prices are derived from UAE local supplier.

■ Crude oil price is derived from light crude Brent, US market.

■ Diesel rates are from EPPCO.

■ Concrete rates AED/m3 based on the average price of concrete 45/27 from four UAE local suppliers.

■ Reinforcing bars are based on the average price from four UAE suppliers.

■ Cement rates AED/tonne based on the Dubai government cap imposed in 2008.

Commodities

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Crude oil (2006 - 2017)

Low non-ferrous metals (2006 - 2017)

Diesel (Dubai only) (2009 - 2017)

AED

/gal

lon

US$

/tonn

eU

S$/b

arre

l

US$

/tonn

eU

S$/to

nne

US$

/bag

Cement (2006 - 2017)

Non-ferrous metals (2006 - 2017)

Steel (2006 - 2017)

Commodities

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00 Steel beams - channelHot Rolled PlatesCold Rolled CoilsReinforcing barsPrepainted Galvanised Steel, 0.35Stainless Steel HR Coils 304 Base

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-

15.00

30.00

45.00

60.00

75.00

90.00

105.00

120.00

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Lead

Aluminium Alloy

Aluminium

Zinc

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

50,000.00

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Copper

Nickel

Tin

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Focus

Driving value with lifecycle costingThe Forth Road Bridge, an international icon and one of the longest span suspension bridges in the world, cost approximately US$16 million by completion during the early 1960s.

The bridge near Edinburgh, Scotland, is still admired by engineers and the general public visiting both the bridge itself and the magnificent, adjacent Victorian rail structure crossing the River Forth. Since its completion five decades ago, the road bridge’s maintenance costs have totalled in excess of US$340 million, more than 21 times the original capital construction cost.

A second road bridge, the 2.7km Queensferry Crossing, opened this month, completed at a capital cost of US$1.8 billion. Its funders are celebrating that this was at a fraction of original costing estimates, due to the application of modern planned design and construction techniques, most notably off-site pre-fabrication of major components.

Such financial facts are a vivid illustration of the challenges facing clients, project managers and construction businesses as they assess the true cost and value of any proposed investment. What matters most when we are planning major construction of infrastructure projects, such as roads, schools, hospitals or airports? How do we measure their true value, and their likely cost-benefit over a fixed period of 20 years, 30 years or even longer periods? We should expect major infrastructure investments such as bridges and tunnels to have a lifespan in excess of a century, if the rail bridge crossing the River Forth is any guide.

While the experience of the last 50 years includes several periods of high inflation, the challenge remains as relevant as ever. On average, over a 50-year period, the initial capital construction costs may amount to just 30 per cent, or even less, of the total ‘whole-life’ cost of typical projects.

An international icon and one of the longest

suspension bridges in the world, costing

around US$16 million by its completion in the

early 1960s.

The Forth Road Bridge

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Focus

Expert understanding of ‘whole-life’ costs, termed lifecycle costing (LCC), has improved substantially in western economies over the last 15-20 years, and various professional disciplines – accountancy, project management and cost consultancy – have developed sophisticated measures to assess the true ‘whole-life’ cost of projects.

The application of LCC is being given new vitality in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets, as clients in these regions adopt advanced approaches to funding, including public-private partnerships (PPPs) and other measures. In the Middle East particularly, such funding approaches are being driven by the need to reduce dependence on oil, as well as significant pressures on capital availability.

What should clients do when faced with the need to adopt LCC? First of all, they should seek the advice of their cost consultants and be encouraged to think that the ‘whole-life’ cost of their investment is analogous to an iceberg, where only the upfront capital cost is visible.

The invisible costs, those below the waterline of the iceberg – representing the ongoing costs of running and maintaining a facility to the end of its life - are much larger. In the past, too little regard has been paid to these ‘hidden’ costs and this remains true to an extent today. However, realistic LCC forecasts can enable incorporation of building management efficiencies at the design stage, offering the chance to reduce operational budgets significantly.

How is it done? Firstly, it is vital to engage the LCC process from the earliest possible stage of design. The LCC approach begins by importing development cost plans into the initial financial model, with each component of the development properly assessed – covering repairs, cleaning and maintenance,

LLC Technical Standard as featured in BS ISO 15686-5

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replacement or redecoration intervals. Accurate data available from manufacturers, in-house records and facilities management, can assist in these much-improved forecasting techniques. An assessment of the utility costs, occupancy levels, utilisation and other aspects of a facility’s use creates a realistic forecast of its total operational costs over the facility’s desired lifetime. The future cashflows from the LCC model are discounted using the net present value (NPV) process to achieve a common basis for comparison and benchmarking.

This approach makes the financial appraisal process simpler, with the ability to make real comparisons, and drives improvement throughout the development. Combined with greater demand for sustainability across the construction chain, the LCC process is fast becoming a ‘must have’ for developers and owner-occupiers.

Here is the key to the bottom line: implemented properly, LCC repays more than its costs as it is a low-cost, high-benefit approach, achieving long-term value for its developers, owners and financiers. It generates a lower overall ‘whole-life’ cost, as well as higher quality. How many times have we seen the downside of an approach that aims simply to cut initial costs, resulting in higher maintenance and repair bills further along the line? In that context, it can be argued, therefore, that LCC represents plain common sense, generating recognised benefits such as reduced running costs, lower energy consumption and more efficient facilities management.

LCC also promotes closer collaborative working during the design and planning stage of the project. Clients and professional advisors can take a combined approach to analysis at component or elemental level in deciding how

to make efficiencies in design, maintenance, health and safety and risk assessment. Vastly improved data from international benchmarking means that there is a lot more information available too.

Sustainability standards are increasingly important. They include the UK’s internationally recognised standard Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM), which now covers more than two million projects worldwide and was the world’s first such programme. The US’s green building certification Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) – first developed as a set of rating systems for the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of buildings, aiming to help building owners and operators be environmentally responsible and use resources efficiently – is increasingly more relevant.

In the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi has adopted ‘Estidama’. Based on the Arabic for ‘sustainability’, Estidama has been adopted as part of the ‘Vision 2030’ initiatives as a collection of values which will underpin new building projects.

In the APAC region, Singapore’s Green Mark, Australia’s Green Star and Hong Kong’s BEAM lead the initiative and are being continually upgraded to meet greater expectations from designers and challenges presented by global trends.

Generations of cost consulting and procurement management mean that advisory teams have more information available to them than ever before. Whether new-build projects are completely new, such as major bridges or other infrastructure, or are replacements or refurbishments of schools or hospitals, enough is known about what will work best over the lifetime of the project.

Just as schools built a century ago were difficult to clean and lacked energy efficiency, so their successor buildings of 50 years ago had known problems in terms of maintenance and overheads. Now planning can be more sophisticated: if, for example, most maintenance can only be undertaken during school holiday periods, a proper specification covering a projected 30-year lifetime can include accurate costs and schedules accordingly. Consultants know which materials and their arrangement – flooring, glazing, roofing – offer best ‘whole-life’ value, even though, as is not unusual, their upfront cost is higher than cheaper alternatives that need more maintenance or earlier replacement later on.

Overall, there is plenty of evidence that adopting the LCC approach to all projects works well, makes economic sense over time and addresses the rising expectations that what we build should be sustainable. The key for clients and advisors is to take a considered approach upfront: decisions made before day one of construction can reverberate – for good and ill – for years to follow. Done properly, LCC smoothes the path and delivers true ‘whole-life’ value.

When implemented properly, LCC repays

more than its costs as it is a low-cost, high-

benefit approach. LCC achieves long-term value and can result in a lower

overall cost, as well as higher quality.

Focus

Page 13: Driving value with lifecycle costingDriving value with lifecycle costing Global 3 8 5 10 Content enquiries@curriebrown.com Welcome to Insight #15. In this edition we take another close

13September 2017 www.curriebrown.com [email protected]

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