Drought in the Horn of Africa: Context, Consequences and Strategy for Humanitarian Response

Drought in the Horn of Africa: Context, Consequences and Strategy for Humanitarian Response

Affected populations in the Horn of Africa

Country Population at risk

Population in need of emergency assistance

Djibouti 150,000 at risk

88,000

Eritrea Figure unavailable

Up to 500,000

Ethiopia 9.8 million (including 7.2m under PSNP)

1.7 million

Kenya 3.5 million 3.5 million

Somalia 2.1 million 1.7 million

Main Features of Drought in the HOA

Increasing frequency of drought episodes with shorter recovery periods: 1980, 1984, 1989, 1992, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2005-2006

Drought is no longer a slow-onset disaster but a chronic emergency

Characteristics of drought affected areas in the Horn of Africa

Arid or semi-arid areas mainly devoted to Pastoralism or marginal irrigated crop farming

Worst affected areas are far away from political and economic centre = marginalization. These areas are often lowest on the political & development agenda and the population typically has low political representation at central levels

High poverty rates; most development indicators are far below national averages; poor roads and communications infrastructure; health and education services poor and under-resourced

Increasing population pressure (livestock and humans) and carrying capacity of the land is reducing

Phase Classification5 Generally Food Secure

2 Humanitarian Emergency

3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

4 Chronically Food Insecure

Areas not icluded in analysis

1 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe

DRAFT

Djibouti

Delayed onset of the October-February (Heys/Dadaac) season in addition to consecutive years of failed rains

Water sources drying; poor water management Heavy livestock losses (up to 80% in some areas) Worsening food security in all 6 rural districts including

peripheral areas of the capital Estimated 88,000 people are currently affected with

approximately 150,000 at risk Affected population dependent on relief aid and support

from family members in urban areas Heavy livestock losses (up to 80% in some areas)

Coping mechanisms over burdened Movement of population away from worst affected

areas

Eritrea

Lack of comprehensive information for Eritrea; results of GoE Crop and Food Assessment not yet released

Above average performance of the Kremti Rains in 2005 but recovery in pastoral areas (north Gash Barka and Anseba) requires successive seasons of good rain

Indications in January suggest that the Northern Red Sea and Southern Red Sea zones may be affected by severe drought conditions

Approximately 2/3 of the population required food aid in 2005; Suspension of GFD in ‘09 2005 except for 72,000 IDPs. Recent resumption of food distributions in Debub and southern Red Sea

Conscription policy limits human resource capacity for agricultural and income generating activities and affects humanitarian operations

Shift in GoE policy from GFD to FFW;policy shift ongoing at WFP Transfer of ERREC to the Ministry of Labour and Human Welfare

has been affecting coordination mechanisms between GoE and humanitarian partners

Ethiopia

Of the 2.6 million people estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, 1.7 million (69%) are located in the drought affected areas of Somali (1.5m) and Oromiya regions (155,000)

Approximately 7.2 million people are being assisted under the PSNP – this is expected to increase to 8.3 million in the 2nd half of 2006

640,000 people require emergency water in Somali region and 100,000 in Borena

56,000 children are believed to be at risk of moderate and severe malnutrition

155 reported cases of measles and growing susceptibility due to malnutrition, low immunisation coverage and increased population movement. In 2000 measles was responsible for 20% of under five mortality. Nutritional surveys indicate U5MR of 3.9 deaths per 10,000 per day

Livestock losses of up to 60% of goats and sheep in worst affected area. 75% decrease in the value of livestock and substantial increase in the price of grain

Stress migration and growing insecurity (internally and cross border)

Kenya Current emergency is the result of a succession of poor seasons due

to declining rainfall trend over the last decade. Drought and poorly distributed rains have affected large areas of Kenya since 1999

Pastoral areas in the north and marginal agricultural areas of eastern province have been hardest hit Endemic poverty, low economic growth and high population growth compounds the loss of households assets and a much reduced household coping capacity.

80% of land mass and 6.5 million people highly drought-prone; ASALs chronically poor with 73,000 children under five and 7,200 pregnant and lactating women suffering from moderate to severe malnutrition

Estimated 4.5 million people lack access to reliable water sources; 500,000 dependent on water trucking

ASAL have the lowest primary school rates especially amongst girls (as low as 12% in some districts); increase in school drop outs.

Distress coping strategies include unseasonable out-migration, increased sales of assets, livestock and livestock products, move to urban areas in search of relief &/or alternative incomes

Somalia

Poor rainfall and widespread insecurity have led to a deterioration in the humanitarian situation, particularly in southern areas of the country

1.7 million classified as being in a state of Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, NOT including 400,000 IDPs.

Worst affected areas are Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba and areas of Bay and Bakool

Malnutrition rates already between 20% and 30% in worst affected areas Measles outbreaks reported in many areas

Livestock deaths up to 30% with potential to rise to 80% by April

600,000 people believed to be at moderate risk of famine Insecurity causing additional stress on populations and

impeding assistance School closures and falling attendance in affected areas

Main consequences of drought in the HOA

Lack of water –for human consumption and for cooking food; severe dehydration

Failed crops and lack of pasture: lack of food for humans and animals

High morbidity and mortality rates; Loss of pastoral livelihoods & household assets Increase in malnutrition and disease for humans and animals Population and livestock movements across clan,

ethnic, district and national borders Increased risk of resource-based conflicts

Factors that reinforce drought impact

Repeated shocks erode coping capacities Pervasive insecurity; heightened threats or reality of

conflict Growing sedentarization: dependence on relief Diminishing carrying capacity of land and natural

resources Lack of development: chronic and escalating poverty:

declining human development indicators Socio-economic & political marginalization: poor

access to health & education; Poor socio-cultural understanding of drought affected

populations

Cross-border issues

Population movement is contributing to insecurity as competition for food and pasture increases

Impact on cross border informal trade Trade between countries affected by changes in

import and export policy in order to address shortfalls (e.g Ethiopia’s export ban on)

Abnormal movements of livestock and people, particularly between Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya

Long distances further contribute to the deterioration of livestock condition and reports from Ethiopia suggest that the biggest losses are being experienced among migratory herds

Cross-border issues cont..

Migratory movements have implications for those left behind (often women and children) as a loss of sources of meat and milk

Population movements towards water sources and pasture contribute to growing insecurity both internally and across borders (e.g. Kenya-Ethiopia, and Ethiopia-Somalia)

Regional nature of the drought limits coping mechanisms

Inequity of response on different sides of the border (pull-factors)

Increased competition for resources between crises in the region but also internationally

The Regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: Strategic Priorities

To save lives and restore livelihoods. Specifically to:- Provide effective and timely humanitarian

assistance and ensure protection to populations affected by the current emergency

Provide immediate livelihoods assistance, build resilience and reduce vulnerability in the medium term

Support and reinforce national, regional and international efforts to foster sustainable development and mitigate against future crises.

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives

Water and sanitation Ensure adequate and safe access to water for

drought affected populations Reduce the risk of water contamination from

point of collection to point of consumption

Food and livelihoods security Save lives and protect assets Improve food security and rebuild livelihoods

to include alternative options Strengthen drought preparedness and

response capacity


Health and nutrition Identify and address the main causes of

mortality and morbidity taking health and nutrition care as close as possible to the affected populations.

Strengthen the existing health and nutrition care system including surveillance and monitoring of the situation.

Strengthen the capacity of communities and institutions in coping with health issues due to drought and empower populations on their human rights concerning health and nutrition problems.


Food aid Provide immediate and appropriate food

assistance to save lives and protect the most vulnerable

Use food to protect livelihoods and increase resilience to shocks.

Support and reinforce sub-national, national and regional capacity to design, implement and monitor food-assistance activities.

Protection, human rights and rule of law Establish and implement regional and country

protection strategies to enhance the protection environment.


Family shelter and non-food items Ensure availability of appropriate household

items for affected populations.

Education Maintain enrolment for basic education Ensure minimum quality of education.

Security of staff and operations Enhance the security environment for

humanitarian action.


Economic recovery, infrastructure and environment Protect livelihoods and assets. Clearly identify and evaluate existing

infrastructure in the region. Prevent further depletion of natural resources,

contribute to environmental rehabilitation and facilitate sustainable use of resources.

Thank You

Documents

Drought in the Horn of Africa: Context, Consequences and Strategy for Humanitarian Response