Drought Monitor and Medium to Long Drought Monitor and Medium to Long Range Outlooks  Range Outlooks 

Julie Dian-ReedJulie Dian-ReedNWS WilmingtonNWS Wilmington

July 2, 2012July 2, 2012

julia.dian-reed@noaa.govjulia.dian-reed@noaa.govService HydrologistService Hydrologist

NWS Wilmington Drought PageNWS Wilmington Drought Page•

•Discussion (updated bi-weekly) is specifically for NWS Wilmington area•Graphics update as available and are relevent for Ohio valley

Spring 2012Spring 2012

• Spring 2012 was the Spring 2012 was the warmest on record for warmest on record for Ohio ValleyOhio Valley

• Evapotranspiration rates Evapotranspiration rates were above normalwere above normal

• Drying expanded to the Drying expanded to the Northeast through the Northeast through the SpringSpring

• 88thth driest spring for driest spring for Indiana and 11Indiana and 11thth driest in driest in TennesseeTennessee

60-day Rainfall Percent of 60-day Rainfall Percent of NormalNormal

What began over Indiana is growing into What began over Indiana is growing into OhioOhio

Percent of Normal Last 30 daysPercent of Normal Last 30 days

• Rainfall was generally below normalRainfall was generally below normal• Less than 50% of normal in parts of OhioLess than 50% of normal in parts of Ohio• Driest areas in parts of southern Indiana, southern Illinois Driest areas in parts of southern Indiana, southern Illinois

and Kentucky with less than 0.50 inches of rainfalland Kentucky with less than 0.50 inches of rainfall

Percent of Normal Last 14 daysPercent of Normal Last 14 days

• Note the high variability of Rainfall Note the high variability of Rainfall • Some areas ‘hit/miss’ with precipitationSome areas ‘hit/miss’ with precipitation

Current Drought MonitorCurrent Drought Monitor

• Increase in drought Increase in drought coverage in last few coverage in last few weeks due to below weeks due to below normal rainfall and very normal rainfall and very high temperatureshigh temperatures

• Main drought area is Main drought area is from Tennessee into from Tennessee into Kentucky and Indiana Kentucky and Indiana and Illinoisand Illinois

• Drought Product only Drought Product only updated each Thursdayupdated each Thursday

• Input from NWS, State Input from NWS, State Climatologists, Climate Climatologists, Climate ScientistsScientists

July 2-8July 2-8• Hot and humid Hot and humid

weather persistsweather persists• Scattered storms Scattered storms

especially early in the especially early in the week and again on week and again on the weekendthe weekend

• Some risk of severe Some risk of severe storms from the 4storms from the 4thth-6-6thth

• Widespread 90s with Widespread 90s with 100s not out of the 100s not out of the question by the question by the weekendweekend

Outlook Through Mid JulyOutlook Through Mid July

• Below normal rainfall will persist in the lower Ohio Below normal rainfall will persist in the lower Ohio basin. Likely not as dry as June.basin. Likely not as dry as June.

• Soil moisture is an important factor in summer rains. Soil moisture is an important factor in summer rains. The drier the soil, less low level moisture to allow The drier the soil, less low level moisture to allow developing storms to persist = Less Raindeveloping storms to persist = Less Rain

July OutlookJuly Outlook• While Signal for above While Signal for above

normal temperatures normal temperatures remains, less confident remains, less confident in below normal in below normal precipitation through precipitation through especially the 2especially the 2ndnd half half of Julyof July

July-September Rainfall OutlookJuly-September Rainfall Outlook

• There is a chance for There is a chance for some rainfall some rainfall improvement as we improvement as we go into August or go into August or September as soil September as soil moisture becomes moisture becomes less of a factorless of a factor

• However, confidence However, confidence is not high in this is not high in this forecastforecast

July-September Drought OutlookJuly-September Drought Outlook

• Drought will persist Drought will persist in the lower Ohio in the lower Ohio Valley through Valley through summersummer

• Variability in Variability in occasional occasional Thunderstorm Thunderstorm Complexes will Complexes will result in drought result in drought expansion and expansion and contraction at timescontraction at times

Drought Outlook SummaryDrought Outlook Summary

Drought will likely persist in lower Ohio Drought will likely persist in lower Ohio Valley into Cumberland Valley this summerValley into Cumberland Valley this summer

Drought will fluctuate in areal coverage and Drought will fluctuate in areal coverage and intensity over the short-term with rains and intensity over the short-term with rains and hot weather fluctuationshot weather fluctuations

Official NWS outlook calls for possibly some Official NWS outlook calls for possibly some improvement by autumnimprovement by autumn

Confidence is low currently, but if an El Nino Confidence is low currently, but if an El Nino develops this winter, dry weather could re-develops this winter, dry weather could re-strengthen in parts of Ohio and strengthen in parts of Ohio and Cumberland ValleyCumberland Valley