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Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia -. David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The University of Georgia [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response- A View From Georgia -David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.
State Climatologist and Associate Professor
Engineering and Atmospheric SciencesCollege of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences
The University of [email protected]
Facts About Georgia◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million◊ In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million
◊ In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million◊ In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million
◊ Largest state east of the Mississippi River◊ 8th largest state in population
Facts About Georgia◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands◊ Southern half is the coastal plain◊ Most of the population lives in the piedmont
◊ The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)
Georgia Water Facts ◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water
• Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles.
◊ South of the fall line - primarily ground water
◊ 1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia
Georgia Climate Facts◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year
• More than 80 inches in the mountains• 45 inches interior southeast
◊ Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches
◊ Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting
GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS2) AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS3) PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES4) DROUGHT RESPONSES5) DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS6) CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP
Approved: March 26, 2003
Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses:
1A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …
Precipitation◊ 30 days◊ 90 days◊ 6 months◊ 12 months◊ Water Year◊ 24 months◊ 36 months
30 Day Precipitation
90 Day Precipitation
6 Month Precipitation
12 Month Precipitation
Water Year Precipitation
24 Month Precipitation
36 Month Precipitation
Soil Moisture
“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)
“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)
Stream Flows
Stream Flows
Stream Flows
Lake Russell GA/SC
Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC
Lake Hartwell GA/SC
Lake Lanier GA
Groundwater
Drought Level GuidanceCD Drought Indicators
1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake AllatoonaChattooga River at Summerville
2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega
Georgia Drought Response Levels◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to
10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight.
◊ Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban
Determining Drought Level Response
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at triggers guidance
◊ Discussion
Comments about Discussion◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not
capture the essence of the drought
◊ Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought.
◊ Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels
Determining when to relax restrictions
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at trigger guidance
◊ Look at climate outlooks
◊ Discussion
Drought Outlooks◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks
◊ IRI 3-month Outlooks
◊ NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007
Additional Information◊ State Drought Page: www.georgiadrought.org
◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations: www.georgiaweather.net
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium: www.agroclimate.org