Drought Risk Assessment - wamis.org · Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector – Ljubljana, Slovenia, Sept. 20-24, 2010 Summary

GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org

Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector – Ljubljana, Slovenia, Sept. 20-24, 2010

Drought Risk Assessment:Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems

Dr. Jianping YanDisaster Risk Assessment Specialist



Session Outline

• Understanding the Concept of Vulnerability

• Mapping the Agricultural System in GIS• Developing Vulnerability Functions for

Drought Risk Assessment• Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural

Systems



What is Vulnerability?

- Concept- Typology- Conceptual Models



What is Vulnerability?

Vulnerability= Degreeor extent of potential

damage or loss

Vulnerability= Degreeor extent of potential

damage or loss

Vulnerability = attributeor characteristics ofBeing resistant to

a hazard

Vulnerability = attributeor characteristics ofBeing resistant to

a hazard

Vulnerability = ThreatVulnerability = Threat

Vulnerability = Ability orcapability to anticipate,

cope with, resist, recoverfrom the impacts of a

natural hazard

Vulnerability = Ability orcapability to anticipate,

cope with, resist, recoverfrom the impacts of a

natural hazard

Vulnerability = exposureVulnerability = exposure

Vulnerability = Conditionsor situation with increase

the susceptibility of asystem

Vulnerability = Conditionsor situation with increase

the susceptibility of asystem



The issues with the use of Vulnerability

“The term ‘Vulnerability’ is now used in such a loose and widespread manner that it is in danger of becoming as useless as the term ‘Sustainability’, and so some precision is needed to rescue it.” (T. Cannon, 2006)





What is Element Vulnerability?

• Element Vulnerability refers to the degree of potential physical damage to the target elements at risk, such as a buildings, facilities, infrastructure, and lifelines in response to a hazard event of a given intensity.



Measurement of Element Vulnerability

element

repairelement Cost

CostoDamageRatiV



Early Warning on Damage



Vulnerability Functions

MMI Intensity MMI Intensity

DR (%)DR (%)

IV V VI VII VIII

20

40

60

80

100

IV V VI VII VIII

20

40

60

80

100



Fragility Function/Curve



What is System Vulnerability?

• System Vulnerability refers to the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of an anthropogenic system to the effect of hazards.

• System Vulnerability is the extrinsic property of an anthropogenic system that can be defined by the susceptibility, coping capacity, and resilience of the system.



Measurement of System Vulnerability



System Vulnerability: DM Perspective



System Vulnerability: 5S’ Model



Pressure & Release (PAR) Model

(Wisner, et al., 2003)



Mapping the Agricultural System in GIS

- Identifying & categorizing elements at risk- Analysis of inter-dependency & criticality- Inventory mapping



Categorization of Elements at Risk

• For Crops– Rice, wheat, corn, cotton, bean, etc.

• For Livestocks– Cattle, goat, poultry, etc.

• For Services– Water supply, energy supply, etc.

• For Resources– Farmers, soil, water, etc.



How to Characterize HS?




Important Sectors




Important Sectors

Dependent Sectors




Important Sectors

Dependent Sectors

Priorities for recovery

coordination for recovery



Inventory Mapping

• Requirements– Resolution and seasonality– Data format– Analysis unit

• Mapping Methods– Proxy-based approach– Geo-referenced approach

• Data sources



Inventory Mapping: Samples



Inventory Mapping: Samples



Inventory Mapping: Data Sources



Developing Vulnerability Functions for Drought Risk Assessment

- Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought- Vulnerability Functions



Vulnerability Functions: Flood



Drought Intensity Index



Changing Drought Intensity



Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought

Corn



Analysis of Historic Losses

DR01

Cotton

Corn

DR01

DR01 Rice

DR03

DR03

DR03

Cotton

Corn

Rice

DR02

DR02

DR02

Cotton

Corn

Rice



Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems

- Conceptual Model- The Process- The Method





Vulnerability Analysis: NDMC Approach

• A 3-step process:– Identify the impacts of drought– Rank the impacts– Analysis the causes of the impacts

NDMC Site:http://www.drought.unl.edu/risk/vulnerabilityanalysis.htm



Cause Analysis: Impacts Tree



Summary

• Vulnerability can be classified into Element Vulnerability and System Vulnerability.

• Vulnerability functions are created to calculate potential damage or loss to a given element at risk against a specified event intensity.

• System vulnerability provides a framework for identifying the social, economic, and environmental causes of disaster impacts. It directs attention to the underlying causes of vulnerability rather than to its result, the negative impacts.



Any Questions?

Documents

Drought Risk Assessment - wamis.org · Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector – Ljubljana, Slovenia, Sept. 20-24, 2010 Summary