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D.t€diratio! of SFing Wh€d R.A@r€ to DcvdopqlotdWiDdowi Usilg Sidoldi@ ApFo.ch
ByMlr[aoEad AldD
M. lhil (Plrar rhliotogt')
DEPARIUBNT OF PI^4.NT SCIB{CESQUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSTTY, ISI/MABAD,
PAKISTAN2008
L
Determinarion of Sp.ing Wheat Responsc to DevclopmentalWindows Using Simulation ApFoach
ByMuhammad Asim
M. Phil (Plot PhFiolog/)
A TI{ESTS SUBMINTD IN PARIIAL FULFILMBNT OFTIIE REQUIREMENTS FOR IIIE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR oF PHILOSOPHYIN
PLANT PHYSIOLOGY
DEPARTMBNT OF PLANT SCIENCESQUAID.I-AZAM IJNTVERSITY, ISLAMABAD,
PAKISTAN2008
In TheNroc ofAI.AII,
Tte CoAassionrte,11€ lf€rciftl
DECLARAIION
I h@by dElre rbr rh. yo* p|larcd ir dE folo*ing rh6is i! 6y oM .frorlq@pr vEc otlEMis &h@t dB.4 ed d.r 0F tn6is is Dy oM @mDo5iraon, Nopd of tt'k that hs hcr p@irst DGdrld tc ny uy odEr ftsEc,
CERTIFICATBIhb tlFsis, subnincd by Mr. MubMnBit A!in, tu lcepted in ib pr.€.nt forn by th.
DcFlllurr of PI! S.iM, Q@id-i-Azen Univ@iiy, lsl|ln br4 ?ltirra! sod!9i.9 6. ltari. llquitloaa for d* d.gF of Docld of Philo$p[y h PbltI,[yroLs.
Supervbor Ab-
Co-$pervisor
Ext€rnal Examiner a't+
Extemd Examin r
Chaiman
Dat d: Novcnb.r 12, 2008
Dr. Asshari Bano
Dr. Muhmrltd AJrm cil
Dr. ahoor Abnad
Dr. Mir Ajab Ktm
Ddicrtdto
My
LoviryPrenlq
Wifc,
$ou llo[ccq l{ocel & l{mrlccn
COI{TENTS
Am{owlxDcEtcrrsUSTOF AABREVIATIONS
llt
xv
LIST OF 1AELES
UST O! RCURES
IIST OF A.PPENxIICES
ABSTMCT
INIRODUCITONA}IDI,IIEMTUREREVIBW
2 MAI?RIAI5 AND MEI1IODS
2.'r.t Wa|tad.r.
2.4 2.r pha.loriet .t !
2_4.2.t Yictd rld yt td qoqd.d.
2,5 C$p sbw$. d.wto@-l.!d i.ld2.6 Gdorr!. r !.vibD@t r !t [email protected]
2.7 l.|udEirrio!.!d Evrludd ofllslM Mod.l2.Zl ft.^[email protected] l2.72 Mor|d P.Giani! .!d lutu.dd
2.3 AniIM oodd ditir{ioo
l0Iirl12
t2
I3
t3
t3
t3
l5
2.9 Shddet @E;
RESULTS
3,I lcrfomme of v[6r gtui'lo ovq sNiDS ti46 EBmrngbroM @n0utnid
LI I [email protected]@ut !o dG a ditrnE| swD!6 oE $yns
3.l.l.t Bi@ &ud.iio. i! Stu9p6 dring SWI3. |,l2 BioIIB @t.d.o i! sho!/pc dni,s sw23. L 1.3 Bi()l]B eud.rion i! stulllo d,njrs sw33. L L4 Bi(fus [email protected] in SedyDa drin3 SW,l3. L l,5 Bio@s a@@ul.aio, in g.nory?e6 lds SWs
3,2 Yietd.nd yi€td CoDpo@r
3-2.3 SpiLldobtEF$itc
3,3 R.htjon ofcrop gm$rh !trED.rq! *irh !.ldJ.l G@tr., !jvim@@t ald MegoMl (c x E r M) tnl@cl,on
3,4.1 Aratysi! ofvdir@3,4.2 Caot?icprfo|:]l,e3,4.3 RehtioGhip of slcr c@rr?€ *ith E viDD@w
yrtrbl6, y4 .d SovilS Wiodow! ftr icld1.5 P.m.biaioo ,d E{ldi@ of ApSIM-Wtat Modurc
1,5-l Euldion ofAlSIM-Wlar Modlt3.5,1.1 Cbp ptaoro6|..d MoD!.toSy
3.5.1.3 Yi.ld ard yi.td mpordrr3.5.2 Ptuebriadon of A?SIM_Wtui Modute
3.5.2.1 Cbp phmtogy .!d Morphoto&/
l9
t9
I9
22
21
!3
13
l5l638
4l
50
50
5I
63
63
a2
86
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i.52J Yi.ld dd yildffi86
9l
3.6 AISIM Dodddri-n!r,6,1 It iDttt p.&m M ri@ in [email protected] Sirdy d niDbll D$ld oq rie siDs A?SIM 6od.l3-63 Stdy dri.&tt b.dtrof *br uitrs APSIM @d.l
DISCUSSION
4.Ir.&@eo{*tat g@tyF oE@irs ri@42Ctu9Fr Eavirm<a r Mosota (Cr Er M) i!t,-lid{3}.tu taidid.ldEv.lutid of AIEIM_Wtqr !odd.4JlXllM E dd 'sn-d6
REFERENCES
AIPENDICEI|
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ACXNOWLEDCEMENTSPrri&hcror{tr[,tlrdof |}.Wortds.Th.Bafc@!lt [email protected](at@)sctuchip; fte GloF) w. sk fd h.lp, Bl6!i.g, of At ! b. uDd Hn PIortErMuhmm4 lh. ru6sd otAll.tr ald th. Sat otthe pnDh.$
It i! . m!6 of 8Er pk sc !o qplq! 6y !i|E@ Esr(, io Dy hdmbL.'pariar PiDf..Dr Dr, (Md A.gbdi B@, DeaM of nd 5.i.,.4 e@ia-,tM (Jtir^itr (Uu), kt@t@bad &, .trctio!.rc ,!Fii5io4 rolprbs,tliulrc
'IrE ai.L tull *i[ @!io ib.qt!.c if I don,i rC.nt by @dirt {Dts r0 n, Grpqvis Dr. I,tuh.@d Aliro CJ! Co--i*r@ rlti!.r Cop. md ConoaM"n*t dF@d, lstialtu ad riwtf,'t ( INFU), tst tuhd rot his Mt]l'.rlitr&, noiflriDS, ir'piaug .nd @drwtiw orilicilo, ,jdrtui h.lD ddtuMtng b.hrvid which .terF help.d m io qrry d win ny s,L
I c ttelni b PDfasr Dr.
S.i.@t, QlU. hlMb.! vtsMn Aj.b Kn'd. cl,titus Ibpaamt of pla,
rEy tdly .!o*.d c fd &. iuboisio. of |nis
It b hy plalw io thot D.. Naf€ Srdiq Kisnr DiEior, Oop &i",6 /6dtrrafcsrl, rrd It Mu[.@d y.qu6 Mrj.lid N.riodj tuieror wh! xarnrut,lqricultual laeucl Ctu (N,tRq..&L,,d, fq F.vidios tqD6 ncilni3,etul ir0.I€nd suss6tis&dlt |he,rivit r- {nrins Dyltg&! e(
Wo* dolt m oul oy io p.y mptj@t frt io Ey gEt t'tnd, .tqn31 norbtri4d lodns vi& for Ocn bvq mi,U. aniod., ooEt s,@on ud pny4 for !y!|IB dd wdrr ld !.y y@sd hdt6, Mdmd elio.td MurElrDdAil fd thir @r6!ins b.nlvid .d tjE ty bqcllp. wfthou br nplor! nwur(l hw ts iEposibt. tor Dc r,o @mpLrc rij, mrk.
My d..p @ of rntib& 0o rI Ey 6[aSq rl NARC for d.n @girgb.6.vir.!d en|| inc.*i-". I mqtd.bo tit b d.ot by hb Gn@r od 6iar',*60 @ olrnshdy.nihuo for.ityie, etr t h.b.d arusda!
LTST OF AAARE}'IATIONS
ABBRf, VI{I|ONS COMTLETB DEACAIPAION
CDP cG D6dic pEdu.do.
ESP
IBSNAT
DSSAT
A}SIM
solENSO
RCBD
MDS
PMD
SD
stSN
SR
csM
E6|e! Sey of P.tnbn
Ilt iutior.lBdhn 'tSii!6Nclw forAsD{ectrotosy
InidDrlion l Co@ds fd Agrioulhnl SFb! AI?li€ti@Dftirio. srson Syrt o f$AgsLctlolos, TIfufE/Slixdnrd Alducd@ q,!l@ 81,tt&1or
H Nino S.dnq! GcilLti@Nrdtrr Asioltu t R@{.h C@rr
R rhoizcd [email protected]. BlocL lt6ig!
M)ll'/l)lDay M lode/M.Er qu(t/DryP.]tn|.D M.t @lorio.l D.D.rt not
Pirciplc Codp@nr &d CLsifqri@ An lFis
spild.& N@tr F Spit
\4
LIST Of TAALES
ll Pdqrorbiffi 'cml,iior G/#/{t t bwnet
rt0
l9
J.1
3_6
3.4
t.2
t8
28
27
2lPait o ofbt'@! re{rd.tior (/o,/d'y) i! what
P.tt m ofbim @udido. (s/Er/d.y) in etat
Prtrd of Ue@s reDuLrion (g/d:/&y) in wbsl
P.ttd of bioM @mddio! G/6:/d!y) itr vt€t3@D?6 [email protected] 4B SW!
RGgBd smry d.wilg r[. rd.rd[p berwMYd d otq !-.||.h rEdi.d tor 6 B@rrF eh itr. Dq4 wido$ dub3 2@t -200j srar snwbr
Md yidd (ts/h!) of wbat lisr.d s C@tlF xm@Mdr Neway d.1! fom.l
Mtu biotus (kAr) of rh.{ tilt d s Cmt ?€ rnlr|1)lllfu bevry d.L fo@t
MdDl< jsld (6) of snd uitar e c@llE rElviMlMl remr drr fodl
Md till6 (, pa az) orlhdl ti,r.d e a.sble xhmlrl@l sG*!y &il foDt
M@ thNind gtu wishr (a) of wbar trsEd 'rGaog!€ x Envin@ar M!-hy &r. Iotur
t.8
3.tl
l.t2
75
11
1l
6l
6lMai !pjl! rosrh tm ) of wh@r iej i;cmt !$EnviDm. No.mydlo torut
ll3
\.17
3.t5
J.14
Lll
1.20
Mar ,tikhb (fl per sp&.) of yhdr ttrLd s C@rrTE rEnm.mt hc@ &b fo@l
CoftLtio! of mp cFrll ind d.v.toDmt Eiablewitt yi.ld rld orr.bdon b.rw6n Dwdt dir€M@ oflne v&i.bld witll Dedt dit$Em. oryi.u 'm$swD8tu*edlk6C@pde! of sm!.Ld Ed Eaold vrr6 |ErneulBh IDay aI@ s.tuld
Cmtdie! of sinulacd ard ,@uld lrle! rsadjlscFp tututq (Dart aItu Sowine)
C.orei$tr of smlrbd .n t oouEd nhE @dBrpld h.isbr {'')
CompuM of .mLr.d ud @u!d [email protected](kt -r
ChprieD of 6jmul,bd a'd a.surld hlEs EerdresEnwasbtGr?.d1
Cdptio. of si@&r.d ud Dou,rd dc @d@yLldltghd 1
Ll6
11
LIST OT FIGUR,ES
LI 2l
24
26
29
ll
1.2
Prtlsr of bion.s &cuuhdoD in lll sdo!}?.! !o*! ''
Prfia of bioM aMuhjd i. rn s@9F &M i!
Pd(4, of 6io'il8 r@uulrrioD in sn s€mry?€ bu i!
P.tlm ot homs ecuuladM in st\ sdotypg !M in
Prrar of bitu$ GuuLtion t.e u smOTa oM
$r'al plalt kish (m) B .fi68d by swins windos
wlat lpikc lcqrh (q) 6 .tr{Gd by sowiDs windo*5
N@bd of lpftdds pq spiL of *har s .fiar.d by
Nqbq of tiX6 (h':) of wh-t c af..&d by lowirs
wr'at er!i! lcld {relh!) s rfi4t.d by s*iig *iadow!
DnrMde r@erldod of cdehrih ce6oidll$dirg lhc r.lrtioEbi of teiN p&ne3 rDd thctdi@t lrn iDdiEd @lrtbution r's.dN icld $di.d for 63.no9}cs @n i. a rwiD8 window duing 2001-2005
kojed@ of 6. w'.bld o. d. (lr) flcb pLs, Ibblot tcqt @ !@A rBtr aq 6 wbar cdi6 llbwrlerh. aLtjoEhip yir6 avilmd wi.U.n y6 .!d
Conpd@n of limbLd id ndEd .rrh6i, iDzrtala Jorid eE$ wus *ird.$ l, 2, 3 dd 4
3.1
3.4
3.t
t.6
1.7
1.8
t.9
3.10
3.|l
l9
J7
3.t2
x
3l
Tl0.\t4
3.13
J.t7
l.tJ
93
93
CoED.nrotr or siml{lcd rid na!@d mhnjty lrryi4l* So,i,s) |.16 lowins vindo* l, 2, 3 ed 4
CdD.ri$tr of sinuLr.d .d nalurd plinr i.ishl (m).cbn wiog *itrd.s l, 2, 3 .!d 4
CmFi&n of snrdi.d 0d malu.d tioms (ts fi.-L)acb$ bwn8 M{tos, li 21 3 lrd 4
ConpdFn of sinuLrcd &d nasuEd yield (Lg h.r)@$ b$ns vi.d@ I, 2, I rnd 4
Coopaim of siDd.i.d ud oa.ud snin *cidt Gt..d-).Essidc{io&{ l,2, ! a!d,{
Lorr Iqn nidlU patr..D i! hLehrd orarin {196t-200?)
LonS i.rE BoLIl pond 6 trLob.d dufus rh. mnrh!of tuly, Augur ttrd s.Drdb6 Ee t96 t -2006
R.LtirhiD bd*@ njnfNll e.!|@ w ttitydqiosoctb6-Nomb., ed M.bly SOI phe i! ,uly
SiDuhd wnat y.ld ovd yen O96t 2OO7) forkbmbd pnttlimed llrinrt July SOI phs6 dd rvasoda6$ loebg window 0, 2, 3, & 4)
Siouli.d whsl yi.t:t oE yan O95t-2m7) forItLsb.d tEnnion€d lgliut July SOI per6 rld limS.d
A vi* of rdal c$E (t.ta |l th. .od of D@bd) Fm..dilfeq'1riGinrt 6.ld
85
Ll6
38
39
92l.t9
t,2a
3.21
,.22
.].23
!_21
x
LTST OF APPENDICES
Pn$iccctenic.l chrncciilii6 of rhe dpqiDdLl sit 122
Cultive pol'fue6 fm wnat 6p modficd duins l2lA?SIM-W161 @dul. paM.tonaliot
Aalysirof vd.e(ANOVA)fortestinstb€sisrjndr 124difim 6d*@ biod$ @uDLlion bt r duinsbwidE *itrdow r d tuioq cop 8o*rh sbg6
A!.lFis ofvd'@ (ANOVA) foricstiq t[. sbnitst 125difr@ bdvq bioM EuuLlion€16 dEingswi.3 windw 2 ot vdiou cop gmsih .bS6
asr}li! ofvtri@ (ANOVA) for testiq lh€ rt id€nt 126difrol€rus b.lwd 6ion$ .@uularion m!c, duingsrDs windoy 3 aI vdos erop gorli srag6
An lF s ofvdi.& (ANOVA) tor i6litrgde sisliimr 127ditrdmb4@b@$ uuulalion nBduinssvi.8 wirdor 4 !l wioG mp govli slre6
A!.lys'r of vei@(ANOVA) fslBti,glt sisliic.d 128ditr@ h<lwa biod$ reudrtior nbs am$mwing wildw8 ai tuio6 cbp gD*i[ sbs6
Aalyfis ofvdi,e (ANOVA) lor tes|ms the sigDifi@t 129diltcfleo b.twd ne! of vdou psrudd
ll0
Bl
M.s aqt SbDd.rn D.!bri.r! (sD) or vdiolspr|rfuteE ir ewirg rinnd I
Ms .nd sbndJd Dcvnti@ (SD) orwioEpr4@LE id s*itre *in&'w 2
M.6 .nd Stald&t DdhtiN (sD) of wio6Ptui6 i! nvirg *indow 3
M€ and sbrd,rd DovialioD! (SD) ofvdou 13]p,I@teu i. swins win tos 4
AgsEs,t€d crw snwt! nrc (i! s/n'?/day) ofst\ lr48tutt!6 in fou $wirg {i o*!
t2
ll
XI
l5
t6
t1
20
2l
22
B5
l16
t37
133
t42
t43
rql@y distiur:do rodreir6aG,g)F .q'By dj3tlhnd for @'!ily lrhy alE sui,e)
u
FEqu4y dulihnid tor dEr h.ish (d)Fr.q@y dis[lbdd ht eilc kosih (c,)
Fr.qhcy dirtthrio fd,!e!d ot.Pir b&(r'.,t,it )Fr.qumy disHbdio for tMbd ot du6 G,t d7
FEqu@y di€riblti@ for bioDr! G?.,l)FEquercy disrdbuijon for IOOO 8nin *.istr k)Fcqu@y diloitotior tor ictd (sr* ,:)An lyid or v|lr@ @ su i.td for sr yaF (E), rouswber*udN (M), !a g@DT6 tc, !'d aI p.slbt.
AdFir ol ei.@ d ptdr h.isb fd ,n ,q6 (D, torffiH* ftl ti',-tt- (c)
"d 'll peiDle
AElrrir of @ otr Eifc koS6 ftr u ,tu (E), tou$*r4 *rndN (M), D rturrTd (c) !trd dt pos,htc
AnbaB ofv.li|G M tp*.ldt De spitc for u yrlBI r,. ru ien8 wjrtoer (m, ir gdoryps (C, md ,U
Amly3i6 ofvirie@ on dtLr !.1 rl for s'l ,6 (E),buewi!3 eindowt I M). dr s@ryF! ic, ,nd ,U
Aarrsis ofwi@ m bio|@ Ior !n ,6 G), rou$rrs tudow Ot), lir g@iyrB (c) ald .U pGsibtc
ADiFi. of @ on rh.qld SEr Bs[| for say€a I Er, bu syus *idof ot), su stuD,!6 (c,ald !n po$ibL ilta.@r
27
26
145
143
28
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159
r57
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I5l
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tr.i. Ebted io @p gD'1[.nd d.vcloptrent 'lmrUytlhlpeipin 04 md norrhly idpflnft, biiBbt
lulshin [email protected] d.ily slor Ediatiom in @h r€rCoop€rie! of siEular.d &d tusuld othGis (Darr
ffi;t"*--*--**o,-"ffii:*.f ,i.,,r.Gd.d.*,"dndl prdreisnr
CoDp.rilo, of rimLr.d &d msuEd bio!6 (tg hrr)a@eura&dltt d6tst gc
[",3p1- r"r*t.d .r .*u€d sni! *ershr
f4.ii;e of smukcd .td Dadr.d srin l.rd {Ls ti
SibuL1|d &d @Ed vllE Esldirs arh6is,dtuiy (DrF 4fia s,,4) rd pl'!r ide! ('')situh&d .nd n65ur.d nl@ e!!di!s bi@ (*s ld-) aDd s6in w.tbt kr&/1situJ,ed ani nesuE! valrcr 6g.idins yield (r!s ,z ')
Dutior of@p gE rh !!r8d .! .tlerd by cLugibg in
It
36
160
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ASSTRACT
Th€ ptet rnrdi.. r@ 6.rn&r.d io (.) Milr .!d mt t. crop rDril .!dd€vdo@at lo ri.l4 O) r!&6d g@rrF r @virc|l,d r M8qer (c
l E r M) i.t!tulio4 (o) FEff{qia ed mlua A}slM-wtrat oodut. ud.r
lel @ndilim and (l) ulilia ATSIM sjnulalid @dcl io duMud.GbndiDg aboul rb. E i.c in w[{r h.!.<t cropoing st!r@ of th. esins hirrori..l @t[a d,l!. Tn dudt6 9@ @i€d o{r .l N.rional
&riodinl R@eb Carr 0,{ARC), Ltdb.d r. rbis stuty ! s'6 of
dFiMlt r@ coldrbd ui.s rir [email protected] (w.faq-2@I, Cbll*d-97, NR-
55, NR-2!2, NR-234 rnd M0rs i-99) FM .t fou svins drb, sturd 66nid of Octlb.r .!l qlcd.d dril d. dn oaD6db.r ro oowr d. w[ol. mse
or bwila tie, It* loE witrs d{.. *6 lrubotizcd s Sowils Wiod.*s
(SV, .L..t d d Swt, sw2, Swl .nd sw4. 11. ddy w @dnEi.d oEdrc (2()0 l-2007) io r.d4r,!d rhc plriolodql .!d elosicrt &pel. of wldr
yi€ld ova di\€e SWs. Cmp sibubtion Do<LliIg t€nniqE w6 al& ucd, s a
hoidomtio! .rd mrtrllliotul lool to tdl€r udr.r ind iL eh...
pqfot@ ir Elri@ 10 ainfcd @iro@t .!d io &pid t .ri{l @g@ldaisi@ h.!.d o. Eh 6d6.
Sisrfiet difr.tliG w obsed in Ibc pdtraD of bi{M @ubrioD itrou sw3 ,c@3 3ix g@D!s. Ctltrro! in Fwilg ddes,
'! lno DEsd rtud,
hrrc r o.8.tw inF.l m cop go*d nt. .!d . decG.in8 tad mt ob€d.d
i, ltc bil)|a @uDd.lid .c6 sn !@rrF. A@og s@ry!.s, NR 2l t
sh.y.d @i6u crop gmxnh nr &Ds ftu SW!. ft. Eddi@ of | | % $d
39 % w ob.avd 6r tL c..' !o*rt rb cw ,@O/t€ &@ in SW3 ."d
Swa n pcdiw', toD SWI !d Sll2,
G[n' yidd Fdsd b.! tt Sdr}lq ri|i tt cL!8. i! eitrg dtL rld.rilld EdEdd of 66X n ot 6dd i! S\{r mt t d yiu Swt. (lrlldfdiE
oflln ,i&l rdrdo doed . tlrii.rid of.hdr @ k^./d.y |a6 SWI .@g
ADdg l[. Frcd ely,.d bi@8, lEhaof ?r!4- F.pit , od t000
!6ii eli8b El th. @t iqatul Frdi:bo of liqll b rh. ulrtn of O I E
r M ilE*dm fo. Fn' l.4 M ptr'.d . .ia!i6d!r o.ribllid 0owrS 0.
srh ,i.4 r!d-d!g ilE i@t E of O. .lcd6 of ofriM wils d.L ir
,agdohdl Aldrdotr E ldr Snr||.b. ( ISDO w !r.d !.li.iltdrti.t'ol with ib wiN lilt il oo(i|&. Ffo.EiDa I MD6 of 6Ad.tiE uiig
|nct ilhill .la6itt@. To u ti. onmq n B mllrt.d !n F!&rai4duilg rbr .lt9 .!d clbrt d.b of Lldb.d Tb ldhl@r i! |h.
@F|r i.rr.li& of AISIM .rlitin|htc b tb i4ov@1.!d Ddi6ddo!
i! EiE drniw cc6.iat L.d b !o.&dd-Et tdra liuLt d !de@d d.li igdiDS 6. @!r@ of dt6i!.d drlity bt .eu&br.3uLdle tb ptdc d.vdotod of l!. sdtF u.d i! t[i, mny. Thn
ido.u@l b t!.4d.lt .bilily.lo iDFeEd 6..n!uLd@ qFbnid6 ol
th. oodd qrdirt bi@ Eed.tbn &d .rins $!do{ .!d yidd.
xv
T[i. nlid.t d cep .iDrldi@ rod.l *L.d to .db.e N uldmonding of
co! dlos/ ed DnFiology &d s . iool for el@rins optinD pwi,g dd€ and
culliva. Usins il in coiwrim *itb th. tnoyhnse ol sdbDrl climle
toEastiD& ubs El Niao sdlfidn O&illili@ (ENsoysouthd G.illadotr
Itdd (SOD p6!s n h.b.d b de.E ou loovLdse Eg.rdirg Oc GiliEc of
croFing sFtd in hiDfd !e Tle liDul,tio. .n rt*is Eg,'di!g pdi{oning of
shal i.ld, ivdgcd eo$ SW5, Eirg SOI Dbas show.d thlt rovins alier
mid Nolabq (Sw3 .Dd sw4) k rrlr.nlL to climtic isnaid spvd.d
by SOI plts i! dy. TL aDlys d!. 6qlcd u ias6.d vbal )rc[.t of
$oDt I tt i! dhtion wilh ph.noo@, of SOI Dh6& 3 (nllj4) duins lbc
mntn of tuly d comp€ed b pn & 5 (@Bisl6dy o{ m) duinr th. !'@
@dh aql Disbt h.w a !!k eid {n nirfrl fui,bility. Th. @brn uins
Fob.bdisic !pp@[ oql.d rt t, b.ed @ lolg rqa Ei.f.ll drL, (h.
hLrabad arc lud ,14% dd 35% p@ibility of ercediDs Eodie diofrx vidr
@4i5latly nar m dd cmi4.ndy r.g!tiv. SOI phs6, E pocdvely duilc
July,
Fulla ,o* n tugB6ro4 ro Urt rt ni.nu wi.bility i! rbft nirfcd ze vin
SOI phi@ .o thrt lhc SOI hq!€d Moul fo@lriig @ld b. u.d io mre
dai.ida 6r lte opdml *hat $vi.g eirdos a.d snihble .ul1ivc. It is
saa6t d to orErn! rilild $ni6 otr oultiplc lGtiG ro s. rioullli@
u.lnique @qntdiwly a tool for *iat yi.ld fd@ts or |n6r .E in
x\n
INTRODUSIION*ND
LITERATUBE
CHATTf,R I
IITRODUCIIOI{ ^NDLTIR^TUNO
REVIEW
a@d vn ^ Q.ituuh Btiw L.) is rfi. noc wid.ly EreM c6p in ln. !o.ld.
Almost one sirdir of the lo&l lEblc lad ir tfi. wrld i3 culiivned siib wheat lnd
ln. @ udq what.ultirdion i! nm th& 240 Dillion hl (CunB 2002). As a
libd souE, and ils .nomos Elr.tic vdilbility in phoologic.l Gp.ns. lo
photop.riod dd |.mpc61oc, it is cbM in .nnoc all Ggions of th. wond in
lodions tuelrs i. .llitud. t n . f* melcB to noF thm 3000 m abov. ea
lev.l (Slafd ed S.loft, 2000). wh..l is mhly .ii.8oriz.d inlo spnq 8nd
wincr qh6t and Ef.61o lh. ffi dlring which lh. orop is grown. h wrt r
Nhsr hadbg is dllay.d umil lh. phnl .xpsie!€ . peJiod oi cold wi.t t
enFmlls 0' b 5"C, wncB sprins wh..t is usl9 own in tlF sprins (cs
be swn in autunn in @onlri.s lilc I'b(isbn $.1.xFritu nild winte6) ud
naluEs dlrhg suonq (Cuftis, 2002).
In Politiin. Elt h lh. nosr import$i cmp b.ing lhc $a91. di€t lnd is
cultivaLd on th. lirg.st &E s.r (8 5 million hectaE!) Mone ffils 'n
alhosl
ev€ry pln of dE @unl.y h dtibob I,r.4 Fd b fi. rlE 'dd.d
in asicutlE
md 33 p.@t b cDP (Arotynols, 2OO7). Ovo lh. pdst tlue decadcs, incrc@d
whc.1 poductvity @uftd lttg.lv d!. to th. dd.lopmcd of high-vicldine
cultivd, .dd incrssd f.rtilidr us. (Cunb, 2002) With lhe innoducliot of enn
dmrf whdr dftivo.s whal poddititv hs ber incMs€d in lll rhe n'Jq
cmpDing sy$efrs of dinfed and inigal.d @s, rcprc!'nlins $o diven' dnd
vrrying.gttl.glogidl sit bh mdido3 (A5ld t' dr' 1989)- Ho*twr' in a
siv.n envirme.t, wh.at sowrh dcvelopmenl dd vicld detend on sdildblc
clltives (Gn6Bnb€. .r zl, 2000), n6.g.m.nl pr&tic.s ed *dher conditioDs
li Paldstan, whql is ewn ov.r d vide ran8. of$win8 d.le in vrious cslpiig
sysLns of minfei md irielt.d .6. Trir vriarbn in es;3 rimc is eusd by
va ous aactors such is .mtic rainfall, hte $win8 du. to honcsling ofprccodins
cop, l&l or un.{ihbili9 of fm tuhincry od inplis, .lo. The $ving
window of sh.rt in P.kisbn lcnoluy sta$ non nid of oclobcr sd exlcnds
urlil ihe .nd of Dcdbs. D.t!y.d $*ing t dus shal yi.ld llnon lin.'dy ar
rh. atc ol42 tsrdday an.r optimun e,ing lim. g.n mlly quoted s lod
virious ovis.mcnlll fiotoN llt cl vhdt 8bMi lnd dev€lopm.nl (Alcnbach
.l ,t,2001) borh in fi.ld exFircnll ud entoll.d chanb.r exr€.im.nls
(Pdo4 sd Eagles. 1991 Pa.6on., ai, 1993). conFaslins wiih rcsponss ro
pnotoFriod dd tmaliation, th6 4 no d.wlotm.nid pn@ or cultiv.6
inscnsiliv. lo icmpedt!rc (slafd ard Raw$n, 1995c, 1995b). Olher factoft, such
's lrv.l of nutrition (Rodrisw ,r ur, 1994), *tld av.il.biliry, pler dcNig dd
radidiion (Rawson, 1993) dd COr oncenlmtion (R.wsn l9r2) also havd tu
elI.d md.r vlrying @ndirims (Sl.ftr, 1995),
To undsr.nd the physiologiql sd @logi6l a5p.cG of th4t vield, ii is
nGssary to slldy th. physiology of crop ddclopn.nt (Shf'r ?t dl, 1994l'
Igtlb). Thc d.v.lopmcni ofwhdt is a @ndnlilv of wg'btivc phse, {h'n the
lev.s @ inidacd; thc Eproductivc phac wbd lloEt d'veloPn'nl @u6 unnr
crcp phonoloSical :bBds .re impon. indi@ror! in agrioultuhl production,
n.n.g.ncn! plrnna.g and d-kio-malirg. For e@l oFps, dE dean.l cod.
syst m d.find by Zadokr €t dl. (1974) hs b.a *i&ly Bed ro ,gd thc
dcvglopncrt stagos, The Z.dok! !h8o is ! nor,linoe s..le bdcd on nr*ultrly
spaced ph..ologicsl ddE f|on swi.g to faturiry. Using a rwo<tigir cods, rhc
%dokr sysicm 4n read dct il.d infmltion .boul th. d.wtopnqr (.r$ ot
tn. pla,!. Thes cop ph.mlogicrl d.nt! indiqL the p|(.tu of its dev.lopneni
and e contrcll.d by gen iic dd dvionmdt l frcloN.
lhc nmb.r oI fenile ndds is dcicrminedied dc sBin-fillirs phe, rhcn Ihe
snid nd dd.lops thc .nd6pcd @lh rnd tncn srcB to dlcmine 1hc nnal
Br.in {.i8hr (MiErlF dd SLflr, 2{Xx)).
.hanges In $sins dar.! @ tungt) modrry rh. dLralron or difieFrr
daclopcnLl ph.$r a $c oF! is bcins qpos.d to v..yins dvibnD.nLl
.onditid! (Minll6 er al, 2001). Tte .f6rs of my of thc
facto6 d cop growth dif.r d€ponding upo, thc d.velopn.nhl stag.s when rncy
act, Oevclopment l rcspones lo r.n!€mtuE st n s smn $ th. wd is inbibed
(Rob.rt, 1933) $d dlhus undl mrtfity (Angs et al, t98t: Pon r.t ot,
I987; Sl.icr dd Slvin, l99l )-
Tn. dircBity of cDons drc lo esogF , c.vimm.nt incEction rnd rhe
infomation ressrdjng some critical c6p dev.lopndtit pbNs such 6 g.ain
lilling dlration colld b. .xploir.d by tll. bEd€h sd qop n Mg.G ro inoEdc
yi.ld p6cntial {Yd tud |lun! 200 | ; Minll* !.d strr.r. 2OOo).
FbD thc veiou moJcb tl'd hlw b*r pbpos.d t6 pEdicr the tininr 6t
dcvelopn nl as ofaercd hy knp.tarurc, the mosl qidely ic€plsd is rhe riomal
lim. (wilh lnils of deg@ dryq oC d) {Mo.c n, 1984) wnich h6 b€o wid.ty
Crcp grcwh simolato. modcls hav. !mc.8.d c a valuablc lool for .nhanoiu out
!nd.6Lnding 6f @p @los, od phtliolo4/ $ ftc t,wlcdgc ab.!t thc
rcs.@h Md dev.lophed of oops h6 b*l im@ing at a 6pjd pae. Thercfore,
thc $ienlisls hav. Innp.d togethcr lhe mutinisiplinary kio*ledgc about a cbp
in rh. fh of Cmp Sinuhio M.d.ls (CSM). Tfi* mod.ls !E mnputs
snve witn ma$@tical Eprc&rbtio! of tujor biolosiql pb@$.s and
ooftidd 3) rfls opprcaoh ($il plmt - rrmosph.re co.tinu!n). These nodch
cd b€ uriliad to 3ludy lh. iD@r ofsv.Et mbinlrions ofv.riabl.s etatcd lo
coB eil, w.ilr!.r, dd nuag.m.nt, on rlE gre*ih dd yi.td of. omp, while in
thc rcd world such studi.5 willn.od s*cral yem, firriid mcn-houn, dd d totof
timc ed norcy (Bomin .r a1., 1996).
TheE ae two broad clsses of oop nodcls: l) .npirical or corElolire nodelr
which dcscribe rclaionships bctst n difcrcnl variablcs wiInoDt .rplainins lhc
und.rlyiig physiorq'c.l or physiol au$lili6 lnd 2) hehrisric or
.rpltralory rodcls which exrlicitly d.enb€ $c r€lariodl causlity b.twen
v..iablcs. The ncchdistic nodcls llle into &counl the a*cplabl. d.rdk ol a
meh.nism r p'(E6 suppodcd by lh. underlyirs du$lities (Sridh.E md
PEen, 2002; Ncsbrov ,r d., I999i Amt od Sincl.t, l99l ).
In lhis cmptrb bas infm.lid r@hnolosr c6 md itl usfi)hc$ 5bioinlorrulics in a8.icuhw, ih. ar,rliclrion of veiols mp sinul.lion nod.lr
wilh vtious aleonthms Md @npd.ioml t.hiquct fiav. bc.me &c.pt.d
tools for qicultural Esmh (Rrbbinse, 1986; Selighln, 1990).As fi€ldsludi.s
dduo&d to inpor. t!. ptlduotid 3hd.d |h.r fi. lwlts G dMF elsn
&d sit lp@ific. A wid. vdictt ofcrcp mod.ls ha ban develop.d all ot.r the
worrd lo s.n. many dir.Enl pulPos.s, with n.jo modclins srcups in The
Nclhsbn& al wa8lnirgd, in ttc USA in rhe fom.r poj@t lrtem.tionrl
Bcnchmd siI6 N.t*!* for AsrGLchmlosy T@sfq (U.hiE & Tsuji. l99l:
Tsuji d? d, I99r) n@ a l.anarioll Consoniun lm AsricultuBl Sr$.ms
Appliootiors .t Uniwsi9 of Hr*aij vith Decision Suppon Synem for grc-
lehloloo/ Tfff.r (H63qboon €t ,/., 2003) od in ABlElia qith E
,,lcricultlnl ,,nduction EsLm Sirulllor (MoCM er at, 1996),
Tgriculiu6l Pbduction Sysled Sinllaior (,4PS&), simulalcs rhc mechanisric
SF*rh of c..ps p$nds, Irs, w.ds, dynmie of populrrioni k y $it
pr(ffi (raler, solutes, N, P, ci6on, pH), sudrce rc5idu. dynanics & cosion.
drylod d ir4ltcd syslos, ed mg. of mrladdl op1io6 odideinc
cbpping sysEns p!6p4live (obp Dbiion! + fallovjns + mixiurcs). AlslM is !$itmE L.l ih.r d.bl.t $b-ood.k !o b. link d io sihular. ag.icultiBl sysr.ms
(Mccown e, al,, 1996), APSIM he !aio$ modulcs srcup.d.nri cat eorisd d
plot, cnviDm.nl rnd rdas.mnl.
APSIM^Wa| nbnvh sinnlar.s tE eo*li .nd devclophtrl of. whan cdp in Idail, lihc-*p on d !d h$is. \vh6l gD\{n ad d.Elopn€nl jn lhis modltc
ftsp.nds ro climar.. soil *arq supDly and soil ninogen
Patrct riatid of hod.ls L !n inponDt last swhilc exFimcntins wirh
nodels lhni fc!!.s lh. Gsrang of rh.ir p.domsce in . vide tugc of
AgricDll@l p.dlction slg.m hodelbs qn b. us.d io ansrcr qBtions at
vrrios ldrls of .ggE8arion. HMr, mod.ting 3t@ld .or b. sn 6 lhc
p!m@ for all asr@logiol Foblcm5 bol r.tt&r as a oonwnient way or
rssEgdins avircindt l iDl.elim upd which deisiN { bc b,s€d. Crcp
rodelins inles.t s or lnovl.dg. Eg.rdins asnouhEl slit ms. ind ltlows
8.ndli@ of iramllion u*ft| for d.cisio mak6 dd hi8hugnts grps in
oucnr lnd.ErddinS oflhc aylt D,It tulps in linking asdcultual res4h ro
Ilcliol nd.gdcrt ed |nus lddidg vrlE ro exi5rins kro*ld8a dd r.s@h
effoltl (M.inke er al, 199r.
In lh. *ond, s.v.6l mp mod.ls haw ber devdlop.d in wsch insritutcs.
uriisiti.r od agricultlEl irsirltios. Some of ih.e nod.b .e Eldircty
simple, b.s.d on r.o$le of lbl,tn runcrions whitc olhe6 arc v.ry d.laitcd.
Smc dm !t Dod.line only cqiiin spdt' of mp dcv.topmenr whiL olhcB uy
lo covd K nany dcvcl@n nt pllrxs ed envnonndlel rehionships !s
posiblc (Asns .? aa, 2002r Aslrg .t al.,20o0i M.i'tx..t al., 1993). Mtny
modek aE availabl. and d. b.ing u$d lor oDp6 lik wheati maie dd orher
ciEunst d6 to idc iry lncir sF of wlidity ad th.ir tinilltios. In d idcql
.e lh. modcl sh@ld te v!lid.r.d, dur B csrd in th. {i&d p6sibt.6g. of
€iriMicntal ondilio,r to pbv. tlur is builr-in El.tioNhips sd .qutids hotd
fd .n, input d.l! s.r. Howr, widr mod.ls dor.iLd .nou8h to clain rhit
caplbility a ehtit.ly @nplq inp* diL !d b rcqli€d b m th. hodci, sd .ko
hey ficil obsdltios e n6d.d to @D!E nod.l odDur vilh Mtiry; od
lhce for a larg. nuhbs of y..B $ rhdr t$h bioinfom.tica tool 6uld b. &d for
irciiel &cisim n.tirg (Asg., d., 1998; M.inlc ., el, 1998),
SM.l clin.r. fo@* d t in3 [email protected] usd to dd debio nDkiig in
a8'icultuE (Vhiic, 2000) for rilk mulgcmcni lndo v.riable cliDar.. InpovL.d
s*ilk i. e$nrl fotusting ta.dr.d .EicultuEl mu.a.md {d p.!d*tio.
Souihch Osillation Index (SOD b6*d app@h t b.ing pog.$ivcly us.d lor
deiiion m.*ins in norh@lrd AuslElir TIE SOI phe dalysis prorid.d lh.
skjll ir lsssirg drfall prob.tiliti6 md Hlmer (2000) dcmon*ri.d how rhc
i€e@l foE4 inlmrion 6td b. ued oFrdionrlly 'n inplvins
Us. ot crcp simul.lion dod.k li .d with t[€ inpovd kndl.dtq of *!silclim . fo€$lins usina soulh.m Osilla.id Ind.x (SOl) dd El Nifro Sodh.rh
Osalhtion {ENSO) llldrd inc b.tt r nsk duglndt .8!i.li clim.t vdi.bilily.
Th. phss of th. SoI ucc .htired by Stonc .r ai. (1996), {ho usd ohstu
.n.lysis ro gDup r*6Mrh p.i6 ofd$ sol tm 1382 ro I99l into fiv. .!unq6
6 phs. Ih. ph.s5 ff.: Phe I msirtotly n.grlive, Phas. 2 conskenlly
posiriE, Pne I f.llirg Pta$ ,l risbs, Pne 5 mi5ta'tly nd 46.
h P.tig.a clirtrt i.6m.tid for rtu lsrioh,nl r..ror is .v.iLtte for
pedu@s ftoo a r&ge of sollB. lnforntion is $dcw[!l us6ll {d of intcrcsi
bul ltk in providing ttE lc*l of ddib i..d.d in oldo ro,JtGr mmgcmcn.
d.cilions To i4pow clinli. risk r.htcd dekion nating ar tc farm tev.l,
nm6 ..cd io g.in . h.tq und.rs.aliis of d. climi. i.1o6 rh.t .&cr crcp
yield in dEn cnviDmdt, This *ill allow d@tion mrkc6 to idcntit Nsibl.
no.8.Mi orltios brs.d o cline i.fm.rid d lasd clim.t fo|l.s.
So. lhc pEst rludy @ @dbted to iDprov€ ed cnhme rh. utiliaiion of
cDp !im!l.tio. mod.ling rel qB in P.tnr.n to f*ilihrc .gricultunl Es@h
d a lool for @l8eDq't dcilid dd uling it a bioinfomriB tool, Sp@ific
mnito. xd @hr. olp s!w$ ud &v.loFnal ro yild,
ud.r.rlnd g.@ttc x [email protected] x n.rSnent (C x E x M)
pdlM.t ria and 4lud. APSIM-What moduh un&r tnll mdirions
Biry lfimltr oviMndt l i.p{rs (daily Duinm ud nDmlo
[email protected] sle ndiltioa .nd Einfill), rld
utilia APSIM sinulitio nod.l b ohiM lnde6IlndlnS aboul lhc
c aE in slEt b.!cd olppi.t systn of $c .E qina I'ituiql
2,
,.
MATEBIATS
AIIID
MUTHODS
Cn^PrER 2
MATEfi 16 AnD METIloDs
Tn ptBd sndie 16 udut ta wirh tb. ob-liw 10 lrda.bid tL.
physiolo8icd .oil @lqicd rlpel5 ofwnar yi.ld M dite swirs wildoE
Th. D.d.li.s l-brjqu w Erd s bioinfoo.tics rool to uddllnd
biolosicir md dviolU@tri phcnmmn of cnp yield ed ha! poven itj
e6ci@cy (SoUgm& 1990). Tb.rfdq in thi! rrldy crop liat rio! nFd.liDA
Gchicu sr !r.d lo bc{- Erbs|dd rh. end pcf{fuc i. ni .d
A serid of dD€dn.nl5 v@ @dlur.d @ wlor dp b r$dy gtutyTeC
pqfot@ oq dtue msi.s wiDd.*, ft. &r. $ s@Et d vrs ujyd
sitrg vriN drtildol t .t iq6 .!d B de r!.d 10 F'|ediz d. AISIM
model fo. MinB dE lioubtioc 6i.g tdS rdD d.jly w0F d.t . TIE d.t ils
orlh. mi.riab &d D.tho& e siva .r follow!:
2.1 EnErnrlNas
Fi.[C .rFi@t! otr whar dtp *E @Ddsr.d ov6 rimc sr.rrilg 6oE 200t42
cnp s@! ald @ntin d w 10 2006-07 ir l[. d.ld .t Nrtioel AgricdtuEl
R6e@h ccnt! CNARC), hLorbad (l3q a3'N, ?t! 06,E and t47 o abov. s@
krcl). b d. qFibors 100 k/[. *n of N .d t (a lF !d DA?
Gp.dit€ty) s@ {tli.d piio b *La. wilg .. didrar sing d.ta. wc.d
@tDl sa dom tunirv l'ch F! l[. qFindb s@ hid ui.c
Randonizd C@plcr. Block D.ris (RCBD) ..d t!. crlp Mr soM w h an
Ailcnis &ill ir lhE 4.t x 10 n plolJ !f $*irg wildo* fd @h culliw ud
osi,t d ot 18 6* wi6 Dw .p.cbs of 2J cm. T!. expdiMtr, dlb of ehich
w@ u.d Io p.mdaizrbn of APSIM @d.L wd hpr ttE too nonbE
rd nitDt@ 3t6G $ $,b. tsn ti ald d.clotd@t il AISIM-W!a| n duL
c.p.nd r' l[c iDfoldiE 6q by i! ed nt4, $n .irocd !!d d o.dur6
lha i6rid3 of 0E aod.l w dorc udcr @{t6! @diri@ whch i! 6 lrEreqlisil! of r@h ulkLrion.
2, So*Nc lvmmr$
Erch yqr d. rtat cnt @ !M rr fou df&@r wiig dda. fte SoviDs
window (SW3) lhu .@r!d nw a &llosl
swi = sowingbdr*@ 15-25 o.bbci
sw2 = Sowhg bclwd 1G!7 Nov@bd
S.wirg tdya 2? Nmob6.!d 02 Dadha
&*itrs bdR@ 1G24 Daaba
T!. &t!ib @!|dins rctu 1erils &c duilr €ch rd@ sivd d bdow:
100142
22
l3
l0
m
m
l5
02
t5 25 25
t2
t0
20
Novmbd Nov€Dbd Ndmbrl0 15 l1
Dmba Novdh.r No@bq0l 30 30
20
sir wh.aI 8ctutyFs *d irclud.d in rh. .udy, uong them $Ec m
@nncnd.d fd famcls allivario in lh. rs (Ef.rEd 6 cultivar), wh.B.
rh. othr lhrc. rE fi. nrtuE @diLL lin.s for commercial cultivation (rLr.d
!s 'potcnrirl .ulti!e') in L\e stMy a@. The gdoryp$ dudied e as follovs:
L wdrq-2001 (culive)
ll. Chlkwrl-g7 (Crldve)
ul. M4dh-9 (cultiva)
2.3 WHe(r cEr{oTYPEs
w. NR-t5
v. NR-232
vl. NR-234
11!. origii of dE d.v. haljon d caoqrg (h lL lom or p{Et€F dd pcdiSd) t
W.f.a-2001 OTATAIMYON//KAUZ CMBW90YII80.!TOPM'IY-010M_
2
3
5
NR.55
NR-212
NR-2la
BUC S/FC]_S
0r0M-0l0Y,lM"0t5Y.0Y
cM 64663-?M-0Y-0M-7Y-0M.
cM 31398,2M-0Y.0M"5Y4M
x4 p4!4!9!!CEM!
Thc dari *6 coll*red on various lgp-cl in rlio
b Minimun Dai4 sd iMDs) dcsib.d bY
and agDnomic 6psh accodinS
lnlenalioMl Beochn.d sitcs
N.r*si fq AgFr..llnoloor TNf.r @SN T) (1988) r.quiEd for.v.lldion
ofnodel Ei&hi. ud Onq, 1984).
Dor! Esani.g €dEr pEv.iLd duiie inc $dy psiod 6 @lkcr.d fion lnc
Dd d.rio ldr.d rr NARC, TIE &r! imlud.d tuinlm dd nininun dily !n
lemp.EtuF (in !C)i pftipilrlio. (mm) .nd !nd'in. dldiM Oout.
Log i6n (196l-2(107) MdEr dd! for Minun ed ninimm t DF!rE (ii
'cI pl6ipiNrdo! (m), s siE tous ed $hr lirrim (ioarr/D.r) *a6 6r.d tr@ Ihlion M.&.rologicrl D.c.nn.it (PMD) n bhb.d.
Drily Enh6 d.t wc @piLd a . 6.t ih ud.r lh. -.lgrioultunl ,rcdklion
Eca$ StiuLlo. (,i?sr4-Md nodlk lnid Fovid.d tl r anfm.to ro rll
!h. APSIM noduLs in u APSIM rinuhrior,
2.4.I Pndobllql D.i.
cmp d@lory d.r. wF ol,L.r.d Birg znd* slc (z.bt 1911) hv
eleli.s tu pl.m Fr plol fd .n wi.lit! og rdtN wi!8 dda' IrE
n@Etuits of thc Ph.nolosiod 4tni! sE lrorr.d 6on csp.m.il.nc. and
@ndnucd unlil d* cbp trldiry 5ra8s
12
whsr.bd. elfud dry mdd (biome) d.6 w6 r@dcd or EBuld ihtlMk
drninS film sdling grc*4h d 3 lc.v. sbg., mthBii rd n.l!ri9 sb8.s
.4ordin8 io fic Mininun D.r. s.l (MDs) Eqlimenrs ddrib.d by lBsNA r"
Smplc ai4 consjsted ofd. iot l planh within 0,25 r x I n r.r. samplcs *crc
ove. dricd at 80qC lor 48 hou6 or Dntillh. consl.nl weishl is determined.
ll
?-4.2J Yl.ld rd Yl.H Ciipordb
ar mlrunty Nnb.r of mlin ddn ad h..d b.rins tillcu wre @.rcd fEm !n
@ of on n.r.r sqre. D.r. ESrding pldt h.h!, spikc lensrh, nunb$ of
spik lcl! p.r lpilc wa al$ record.d fon liv. Dlels per plot This dan tas
avcEg.d &.os lh. rcplicsre Dlols. 1000 gdln wcicht (g) sas tlkcn rrcm th.
ndcscd $mpl. oforc nclr sq'Je ad 8ni. yi.ld.
The soil dr|r for yriod ph)6iehcnio.l vuilbles w€€ d.Lmi.cd using
sidndaid mathod5 desrib.d by lhc IBSNAT (1988). The dctails reeadinl $il
dala d Bir.n in Appcndix L Thc d.t! w.s @mpil€d in $il nodulo of $e
APSIM nrd.l for veiN €LuLdons within lh.e noduks This infom.tion
ws ltliz.d in APSIM sinuLliN.
l5 gBalcSa!4E-pE!@tu!!r-4!!lc!@
D0t! coll.cl.d frcm field dp.dncnts @ndlct d durins 200142 wh.d crop
season 0o 2004.05 .rop s€en in ihc fr.ld !l NARC, hlMabad ws ued for rhis
srldy. Atl th. drl, ws subj@Ld 10 slllisliel dllvsis (seroo 2 9)
2,6 GTNOTYPE. ENVIRONTEXT ^ND
M^I ^GEMTM
INnMCTTON
Dala collccrcd from all ftc teld lrirls oonducred during 2001-02 whe crDp
5.s! 10 2006-07 crop sc6on w6 u$d b (udy this in€r&rion. This dlb was
sobjdtd to strdsrisl ddysis (Sslion 2,9), Followi.g B lh. .xplu.lio.
eg.ding ..ct @mFrcnr ofdis intioti@.
2.6.1 CENorYrr (C)
AU thc gaotyp?s ncniioncd ir sdlion 2.1 w€ ced in dis pan of $c sludy.
2,62 Exvrrowdr (E)
E&h yqr froD 2001-02 d'ear .op g@n to 200&t cop s.tsn wts rMt d as
a ditreEnt cnvisnm.ni This wd donc b...us or rhc E6o! lh6l cach ,.dr hA
dilTe€dt cnriM.nt l onditiotr ind thd *'lt.'t cbp exp.ricncc! variablc
ovimmcnr.l @djiiN .very y@.
2.63 M^r^cEMEflr (IO
E&h Sw(mcntionod i'r Section 2.2) w.s conlid.rcd.s adistinclivr msnsseinenl
oplion dd uFd in O x Ex M inLEction
2.7 PTR,M4'TERIANON ^XD
EV^TN^TIOI{ OT A}SIM MODEL
2.71 nr0 APSIM MoDtL
,lsiouxuEl PlJduction Eslems Siu ulalor (,{P,'t,r4 k a eftwe rool rhai 'nabl6
sub-nodels {or nodlls) lo b. liDt d io limulat ag.i@hD"r stslctu (MccNn
sr ,r., 1996). APSIM hs wious modul6 gruFd ad oLSorisd 6 Pl$r'
Envi@nm€nr ud Msnag.m.nt- ll sinllat s th. mohdistic goffh of cops
(wfieat, mungben, mqize, sorshun, ch), kcv soil proc$cs. and ranse or
negcmml o/io.s ctuidering mpping syslchs FuFclivc ,rP,t/M-rrr.f,r
module sinulaLs lbe glo*tn .nd dev.lopmdt of a rh.ar cr@ in . dail, time{tco
on an 40 b.sis (p!r squ@ neter, nor sin8l. planr. whlat rowrh lnd
dcv.lopmot in this modul. Esponds lo climaL, sil waler sopply and $il
InfomFtio 6 @p arcr is rl$ povid.n b {E soilr.t nodulc for €lcllalion
of [email protected] Et6 dd tuod. Wlqt stow.nd rmt Eidues e 'pa$d lrcm
whear lo ftc surf.cc R6idr. od SoilN modul. rcspslively d hd.st of rhe cmp.
Thc s,,.[{ modul. dceribes tne dynmica of boih @bon Md nitrogcn in soil. Thc
APSIM M.r modul. pbvid.d d.ily n.!.ftlogiml infondion lo .ll modules
vithin m APSIM simuldid-
2,7,2 MODEL P^R^MEETiZAf,ON ^ND
EV^LU^NON
Thc data collet.d fom rhe fi.ld exFrimons oonducrcd dudng 2001-2003 .rcp
gmwing s..s3 6 ur.d for modcl drlu.lion. Mod.l cdibFlior ud vtlidation
rcE deib.d 6 dillffir wa)s of modcl ath.tion by OrerN.ckc .r dl ( 1937)
Sp€inc culliv$ ccliicienb ftr d. slnotyp6 usd in tnis experin.nl wcE nol in
lhc lisr of Scnoryp.s avaibble wilh lh. modcl, th.rcfore, evaluanon was done
using basic itrfom.tion lor lhc oultiE cGltr.i.nls pblid.d wilh lh. mod.t lhe
culriw cf|Einr3 *€a .djune4 ulil nlit ltoMh and dcv.lopncnl sL35
*E siDulaLd withi, 9Cl6 Pob.bility oflh. D.sudd valu6
The modul. Elums infometion on i$ 5oil wrlcr ond niEocen uptatc lo lhe
so *!t Md 6ollN modules on a d.ily bsis for Esd of rhcac atstcns.
It
Sinuhtcd .d ob$ncd @npei$B y.c nrd. tur gm*itr ed d.rctopmcnt
pamme6i3, thc puee boing sBilivity mlr*s oftlE model md jnprcvemcnr
of the c@,ncients. Ccfficicnrs wrrc incrcdcd or d.c@sed using a smdlleep if
2.8 4!$!M!o!!!!@!APSIM us usd to sludy lh. €influ tariability inlherainr.da@sofhlamabad
in €lalim to Slobrl oechmiss ol B Nino S.uthcm Osoillorion / Soothcn
ft.illatid lndd (ENSO,5OI) &d its iDp&r on wartq veiabilig in Pokislln-
To sfudy rh. inpld of ENSO/SOI phB on nin&ll veiabiliry in ihis aq
lttempt *a m.d. t(' cst blish a r€l.tionship b.rEen ninlill vrriabilily durin8
Oclobd-Nov.nb.r Gl.n of soving rindd) and modbly SOI ph$e in July
(el*Ld on tn. bcsh oaEinfrll dln milysis). A pmbabilislic oppddch Ns uscd
to d.gib. th. chrn@s of exc..ding m.dhr dinfall. Th. n.ni.n ninfill -dalqlar.d ton d.lds em (l l-200,.crul dinfill da1i.
Rainfall dala (1961 - 2007) w6 ff.lred using STATISTICA vesion 6 (Slllson,
200r) by plonir8 rrc robl mo.rhy .cdl Ein&ll luiyed ovd lh.l p.iod Dr
iin. to s.r $. p.tr.m in hrd)td ddjn9 snnq (Io.alty .dLd a *lnrit
edon rteti,g l.h Jtu dA e .tuLd u,til Sepknbel) dd *nn t (tocdtv
krc-n ^ bi eatun, the du.dion oJvhich b fum ocbber 1o Mq) 3edsons
(196l-2007).A.b.l minf.llddwsalgrcs .doveraspsof 3 y..6. Ranseor
dcyiarion fon 3 yca' md ss also eloltl.d reEirot acn '3lqlgllcd
v!lu.
I6
A?SlM-wh.ar module, rnic! h.d b.!D d.luated and pamerqi.d for
lslMabnd Esion, ws 6cd to sinDht wh.at cbp using lons iem (l%l-2007)
olinari. d.r.. Yiold da& lnus s.n nr.d ra 6en r*Bsed aciGs eving
windows lnd sEnot p.r. Th. ivcr.gcd yi.ld dah w.s panilioned on the basis of
July SOI 066e, Th. pulpose oftnt pdilionins @ to exploE the usc or scson.l
clihll. tututins bas€d on SOI phe for thc el@tion of opliDun swing liD.
1.9 !!!!!qMA!4!4!!!DAn.lrh of veitre (ANOVA) was p.dom.d lo cst the significant ditrc@nce
b.lw.on m@s of various paramclcts sludi.d for six gooi),t6 aoro$ four
sosing \rhdows rlwr dm8 200142 b 200445 sher't gosinS scanns
Hos.v.r. lor G r L r M i cElion nud) D!l)58 *6 done d'd si: )caK
(2001{2 to 200@7 whdt srcwing $r!.c), Tn. aNovA 6 'l$ pdfom.d
to find dE signili@@ ofrh..fida by C, E, M, dd dl posiblc jnicndio on
yi.ld .nd olter pmnet 6.
Mukiplo rcgGion ralris md corlltioi .nily* veE p.tromed rd show lhr
ftlllionship of v&iou pam.l4 wnh yicld md th. diEci od in{iiEr etTdb of
To find ot tE he5t md wrsl Frfd.E of ! g.norre ps& diaianG
b.Nen irdividurl senotyp. n.d ..o$ rll Fwing windows rnd m'an or 5ll
8.not p.! in a rqr wts ccloulaEd
t7
Mo! rd lhd.rd ddialio$ of ih. Dr..md dd simuldtd v.lu.s vcr
cll.ubEd Md os.d to mluE $! .fb.ri68 of tl'c nodcl in 6linatii8
DlErcloot (ud6ir dn nlnhiy, in DO{ 4&r S,rid. sni. rald .nd biru
(i! lig^.). Hodc of th. Dod.l w.l5 dh.t.d by ECBi.8 sinuhkn
rnd Dd&d v.lG r.d wiri6 w d.rmiEd stus rlE c!.trFian of
dcEdin|lron (4. T-tcsl wc dF Frfom.d io dncmin d'€ 3i8nifioc. ol
difrwucs b.t'h sibul.t€d ed obsrd v.lB,
PrlElplc CooFds .d CLsifcdld AnlFi! (PCC ) 9E Fnred b tudy
t[. Eldiolti! of rh St.dy!6vi0 @viffi .l wiib&s, FE.!d ryitr8
wiidosftryi.ld. !*_*-r
Ai.lFir of ri.E (fa C x E i M) E Ffom.d uins MSIATC 6ioi L12
(F!!cd .d EieMid! l9l} rtth dl odF alFis iNluding $s b.sic
drrici. r@ Ffdn d Eirg STAnSnC Eid 6 (sl!6on, 2(|0l).
lt
&frgun"Ts
CHAPIERJ
R.ESULTS
The hinfed agricultrE pEvails in ibout 20 % of $e tolal .ca undcr wheal
cuitivarioi in P*ist& (Aionyno$, 200?), In rdiDfcd @6 rhe wheal
productivi9 ndrly dcronds on lh. moistuE consodcd duiDt the prceding
sumher (moisi) s.@i or rh. noiduE @.ivcd duing 6e cBp srwi.s
sson. How@, the *hor .chblishm.Dt tuinly dclcnds o lnc noisrur
av.illblo rt lh. tim. of swing in thc lpps profil. of dF eil, The wslhcr
cddnids dunns nonsn dd !r rlE tiM of e*ing play r pidal Db in this
Egfd. Th. lnd.rn ndinS of bd mitch b.twn winS limc .nd wth.r
conditim ould h.lp i. d4ision m.tin8 for th. lmcB qarding eilabl. line of
$win8 undd nirlcd ddilions. Th. pF*n!.d e thc Gulc of ln. sbdi.s using
sinuktid moihlins r.chniqu. b d.lior uc cd m!.8rr'.nl d4isio.s b.scd on
f,-l
3,1.1 rloM^rs ^ccurul,
T|0r{
PERFoRN'AIICE OF WX&{T GEI{OTYP's OVER SOIVIXC TTMls
B!S4E!4G-4AM!!S.!SE!UU4IS[
3,rr.r Eba.e r.cuul.don In i.loqFdurlngswl
Atultsis ol v6isn@ (ANOVA) rcwllcd lhal Ut diftEnc6 .mory rheal
genoiyFs under iudy 14 siSnina (P < 17. lov.l) €8Edio8 bionas
Mlmularion 6t (Appcndix l) .t various cDD gro$$ sL!os TabL 3 l ftvol'd
lhal lh€ biomds accumul.lion tat at3l.ifst g., (ion 3 Lifstase to) anlh'sis,
dd (6!m elh.sn b) rulu ty difiq signili.mllv dong th. wncat lehotvp€s
19
Anong te *hdr SmiyFe $*n h mid ofoctob., (Swl), ndimm bioms
lmuldid d I ldf d.8. wa obrrrcd in NR-232 &d MdCla 99 ar an
@!6.la1id aL ofl.t9 dn?.by G.bh 3.1). M!4rlh-99 showd a hiend Ete
of biomds [email protected] (2.94 gn dty) fotlow.d by Chalw!!97 (12.s6
s/n1day) at drhsis, calculatcd b.twa 3 t.dstig. dd elh6i. Among olheB,
NR-234 (12.t? g/mlday) show.d biomd$ .eunut.rion al a hish.r tu (figure
l.l)ard$4is (Table l.l)whcn sown in SWl,
Trble 3.1 Prn n or bioes GlnuLtlo! (g/n%.y) itr lttu g€noryps
utrd.r Swl
r'. s8nifitur d P < l%ldol. !. siglilid {P <5%t.Et,I Sig.ilitur P < l0% 14.1, NS- Non-SisrifidrAll seh yrlucc atich she ! 6n@ E elilh hna, d non{ignifdllyditreEnq oihedis. thcy ditr r siglifiMrl, ar P < 5 % Lvcl
signiti@t (ar P < t % l.v.l) dif.'!lM w.a ob$d.{t in thc biomos
aoumulilio. ar. a! oatuiq klloulared dlnns . h.sis ond malunq) mons th.
gdnoryp€s $wn in swl. NR-232 at.ircd D4imun @umulrtion r.lc (7.93
,m%ay) followed by NRJS (6.77 e/n%ay) md w'fsq.2ool (6,56 s/mi/day).
Biohass @unulation 6te of Chlksal-97 8id NR-2!4, which shov.d a hBhcr
a@umulation ai. monE 8cnolyp.s .t uthosis frducld signifimlly (al P < 5 %
rcvel) ed ww rhc lowcsr (bclow O-20 g/m'/d.y) mone gprot'96.
-2001 -97t{R-55 NR-2lt NR.tla
20
tl'!
I ra 7t 4 tt 6 D n Drxt r,l rs!r rro
DrrAbadia
ntlft 3,1 PrEdn ol bt0|r.l| *soruo h .lt $tro.'pr w! b
Ewl
// /".
/,/ /)r'."'///.'
{r:
tl
Th* ditrecn@s rcadding bionc @!n!l.rion Eie uons SooryFs l€d bnon{isnifia'n dilr@n6 jn loial !bov. gMnd bionls.t tutoriry dons six
whcat senoqpcs (App.trdix 8). lt clarly lhowcd [Et on SWI amon8 ott rhe
lenotyps undor dudy, lh. biomGs .eumllation r e bied ar v.rious Cowlh
sl4es hwd.r; .t malurit all rnc g.notyFs rit imd rh. pocnti.l biooe under
The dsta pEentcd in Appendn 9 ftle.lcd lhal i" swl, Mdgalla"9c showed
mdimum [email protected] Sbud bft'rc.r o.tDrily O5l3l k/h. wjlh Stdd.rd
D.vidid (sD) 0196l k$r) *hil. NR-5t dio*.d t,1505 k^r orlotal abo*
sround bionss (SD 163l kstu) !r mtuity dd u6 the low.n dong lhc six
3.l.ll Blor6 .elDohttor i! !.!ottp6 drrbg SW2
lxovA (ApFndix 4) dc.led rhot Plal gaoDFs $un io Sw2 sho*€d
sig.iticmr difrertnccs (ai P < l% lftl) in bjonds &clollatjoo ral. amons lhc
g.notyp€s al 3 lof 5ia3. md rt mlh6is (duing drhcsis b matu y p.riod)
|loEwr, !t uthcsk, gdolypic difi.E@3 w $arisriolly nd.iginca,
Anong lhe wh.ar g.notyFs $M in SW2, !t I l.af sLge nlxinum bioma
a@mddid nr4 * ohe&d in NR-23,1 (122 s/n1dav) vhiL wrt0q-2001
@urulaLd ar i 6l! ofO,?O g/m2ld.J od *$ lfi. loucn mons thc* g.notvpcs
22
T.b| 3, P.tt r! or bloru .au.uhrio! G/srd.J) i! ,[ar g.!orr?d
r'! Significotar P< i% lewl. rtSignifsnr!rp<5%t.v.t,'SisnifianlalP< l0%|.rcI, NS=Non.Sisnifi€All such !alB, whicn she a @mon lnglish l€ttq @ non*ignifioflydifreEnt othcdisc thcydifcrsienifimlly!lP<5 %ldcl
aima .@oulation mtc !t mrh6is (fM 3 kilslrs. b Mrh6is) ws obs.dcd
ndinun in M.r!.lli-9, (t3.16 ymldry) Oabte 3.2). Anon8sr o$e6,
rccmuhlion rat. vdied betwq 11.93 g/n:/day (NR-st .nd 12,83 g/m%ay
0{R-234), but lhc goottlic dm.Met Eglrding biods @unul.rion Eic.r
.d'6is (dudn3 3 lafsr.s. ro orh6is) rhc dj,EEn6 wc sadniolly (P < 5 %
lcvcl) non-si9ifiwt uog rll th* gdoqpe, {ApFndix 4).
Al maturily, o d6E.s. in aeumulrtion 6tc w6 obsDld (during anlh.sk to
m.tlrity pdiod) fo. wrfiq-2001, NR-J5 .Dd NR-232 s cmpoEd lo Swl (Iablc
] l ud Tanb 1.2), whib Chrle.l-97, NR-234 md Msgru.-99 $ow.d higha
&curularion rar. in sw2 (Iable 3.2). Bioda$ &cuo'iario. r.r. ,r mrturiry
(duin3 dt6csh ro naruity) ditrcr si8rifioDtly (ot P < 5 % lcvel) lnons rhesc
sooE?.s *io NR-232 slo&d rdinlm .elmulalion Erc (2.64 s/m?day)
while NR-55 siow.d tlF lowq( MMultrion mE (129 g/o':ld.y) lnda sw2
(duins mlhsis to m.ruriry pdod) at natutity (Tlble 3.2 lnd Fi!!c 1.2).
2001 NR.55 NR.232 NR-214-99
Lltb
12.t31 | 1.91 ! 12.8.1a Il.J6.
1.29 | 2.29 b t,33 d
ngurc 3,2 P.tt rn of bi.Dur rcdDlLlio! b .i! g6otyp6 rcrn ir
sw2
u
ANOVA (App6dix 3) EKded thd lh. sdor}lic difcrer@s wcE siadnicd y
non{isnifi@r (ar P < l%, p < 5% ed ? < to"/o lev€k) d6ng ftcse Eenorypos
und.r study Esardins lor.l .bov. gbund bims ar n(uriry.
T1& drt pllgnd ir ApFndix l0 Evatcd thd in Sw2, M.rgalla_99 again
shoved tuxinh lotrl abov. ctuund biom4s armatufty(r3t22 ks/b. with st)
or ?47 k8/h!). NR-r5 d.mondEad $e tow.st bioms iccunui.non l2 | s0 ks/ha
(SD 158,{ ksnu) .t Dtlrity bm alt lh. scnorr!.s ,how.d non{isoificant
dff@r€5 (dp< tolq p < 5%{dp< |O% lmb) Esariring bbhd !t n,runty
3.l,lj Biore .cclroldotr itr a.mlypd {toriiA SV|J
Anal'ris ol vailne (ANovA) Evat.d dal th. biom6 eunurdio nr.among lhe genorypcs dirj.r sisnifimfly (p < r% t€veD,t 3l4fstas., (nom rleafstre. to) {nrhosis, dd (f@m inthGis ro) nalu ty (App.ndii,).
All th. rldt c.notyp.s ewn in SW3 shor.d rn tMr l@numon he unol
I loaf sragc md lce obserrcd bdo* 0.36 s/nldqy (Isbt. l.l). Oc,otypic
ditrcEn@s woc slathtqlty sisnincont (p < s% levsl) .t 3 teaf stage. Ar inthesis
(ton 3 L.f srag€ ro arrn.!i3) a sh.A incrc us obsd.n ii rhes g.no.'p.s
(FjBur 1.3). NR-Ia shortd muimum Eunutdion nrc of (t4.4s s/m1day)
whib NR 232 show.d lhe lowee Eic of bioms a@mut ion (I Lss 8/d1day).
SiBiifi.anr (P < 5% lev.D diirercnces *40 obs.wed in lhe lotat abor. c@und
bionls d n.tunry .monA rtt ti. gdory?.s soM in SWl. NR,2l4 again atuincd
ndiDum @Muldrion nr. (7.00 s/nldat) vljt. lhe
25
1211
!
ltlu $ ?tn ot|nEr srlar h & !r..(rp- 5| h
N
M@s Fsntcd in ApFndix lt Evolcd lhrr in SW3, NR.O34 show.d
ndimm br.l.boc eFund bime !r mrliry (t03,t6 k&/ha wirh SD of r0j4
kgnB) ard Mesrlla-99 siowd lh. lo*st Motrg rhe Edoqp.r wh.n soh in
SW3 (95t? kdha *nh SD oI106? kg^.). Howdq, ihc gcnolypio diffcEn@s
qording lotal abov. gbud bions !t mtoriry mong six BcnotyDcs urdo
study w loaignifmt (AptEnlir E) ll uy t.wt of sigliftuE (P < l%, p <
@unulrlion nl. h c& of M4s.ll.-9t [email protected] io rhc towsl v.tuc of 1.52
g/m?d!t nons lh.s. genob?es sown in SW3 Gable 3.1).
Trbl. 3.3 P.tLn of bioEs MlEuLrton (gn:d!y) itr rrclr senorypcs
o!d.r AW3
!..sisnif@idP< l%lev€r, ..Signiticar.tP<5%t*1,.SisFifMr!1I< I0%r*r, NS-Non-Si8nifsntAll sNh v.lu6, wnidr rle a mmd Erglish lcttcr, G mn-si8dfi*nyditre€nq otn.Ni$ rh., dilld sigrilidlly !r P < 5 % t*l
3,1.1.,1 Bioda rccrndltlor ,r g.noty!.! dunng SW4
Tlt pofons@ of vh.at rEnotypos FtUdins bioma
|ltalcd siSninsr dift€ee {P < l% ld.l) (Appeidn 6) .t vcrious cop
gDsrh st g6, Afrong rh. EEnot !6 undc nudy, NR-2]2, NR-234 rnd M&aalla-
9, cxhibitcd n.xinun rcomuhtio dl! (0.54 e/mka, od difi.r silrificuny
2r,!I NR.55 NR-2J' NR.2J'
0.26 b
D.17h lr.33c 12.89c ll.88d I l,9l d
27
(P < 5% r.wl) wirh odar gdoq!6 !l 3 torfsbsc Goblc 3..4). wn.{ scnoqps
slM ir SW4 rlio snihiLd difcGnd iD th. pslrm [email protected]
(FkuE 3-t rr lmh.sh ed matuiit.
Trbl. 3.4 P.llcru oa bion.$ reuoubnon (g/m%!y) iI *t..t geloryps
udd SWa
In sw,l, ti. bims @Mnklo nl. Main.d I@ &d dE mrximun rare ar ll@f r!3c s6 O.t4 !rn'ld.y &hicvld by NR 232, NR,234 lnd Msgatta 99
Oable 3.1). Al (ton 3 leaf sl4. dward io) &th.siE wimum nt r.s alhin€d
by NR-23.1 {?,Ol g/n1day), At nlluriV, th. i@lmlhlion Ble rs.nhm€d by
all lne saolyp.s .ept Cnakml-97 (3.21 e/n']lday)- Muinun .emuFrm
6t *s ett ind by NR-214 (9.71 s/n':ldry) for rfiis Fnod in SW4.
2001NR-55 NR.']2 NR-aL
-99
5.87d J.59f
l.2l f 9_2t b
.!r signifidi.t P < l% l*L r.Sigrifiot.tP<5%I.rc|,
.SiSnifisr.tP<llMl*L NS=Noi-Signifi@tAll scl val6, tti.h sh@ a mmms Enrlish lctle., arc .on{isnificmllyditrenq ofiwis lhcy di'Ier sienificdtly rt P < 5 % Icv.l
AMlysn of veilne (ANOVA) r@lcd lhd the tolal t!o!c gound bioma$ ar
r.ludry in ril g.nolyp6 mds srudy dif.r noniisDifi@lly dmos th*
g.iolyp6 {AlFndir 3) d ey lcwl of sigdli@ (P < l%. P < 5% ud P <
l0% lsDls), Th. d.l. pEsnLd in Appddix 12 Ev.aled dEl in sw4. NR-234
show.d hdioun arqage rbole Eouid biohe dt malutily (8258 l8/ha). The
28
/,
fl//
t//
7t77
9*I
0 r t, It o lo l, ro 160
Darrte.ra
FtrF3,4r.aa.tn.tuon.GlDLaL6b.!aloolyPsomi!
8Wa
at
v.luc or sD *a obsdci a 36t2 ts/h! ..d rhored $e v&iabitiry sd
vul@bility of whot c.p w in Swl, Chrterl97 Mdard rtc loR$
biom6 .r n.turity (5334 k3^a wirh SD of 305r ks/ha) mons thd six s..oryFs
undd !t!dy (App.ndix l2)-
3.1.1.5 BloD@ rccumllatior In s..otpo.cru sw'
Signiarnr dif.M6 wE obsd in O. p.lr.m of bioms @lnutdion in
four sw3 .fu t[c sn s@tyF {Figuc ].5)- ANOVA Ewtcd sienjtionr
difi.EnG aong ihe gmtlF udor stuily E8&di.S bionN ecumuiaron
at d I l.alsr.g., (filD 3 leaflo) &$.sir, .nd (frcm lnlhesis lo) natuiry .cm$
Cn..36 in $vins tim. h!v.. rc8rriw inpld on cop gm*lh raic Egardi.s
bi@B .@nuldo- Ovmll rhc rdudion of I I% md 19d,6 w6 oberycd tor
lh. bio|E eumularid Elc *hd syn in SWI sd SW4 rcspeiiEty, fDm
SWl.nd Sw2 (Appendn Il).
-fh. bim.$ aaunuhtion dr. !v.6s?d &bs sw5 revalcd .har NR-234
a..t!i.vcd muiDum .Mllari@ r!i. .i I lef si,C€ (0.82 C/m%.y) md al
dthqis (l I -72 g/n':l&y during 3 ldf srrg. to hlhdis peiod) wtil. W.fu-2OO I
sho*rd hisn6r euoulrrion !t m.nri9 (5,?l s/D':ldly), @lcul't d frm rh.
lin. llk n duins 0nl66is Md mrtuity. Conlr.ry lo this, NR-55 (0.6J s/m%.y)
md Chokwal9T (2.?5 s/n%ay) show.d lowet bionas aocunulalion dto dr l
laf s6g. and !l malurity respeotiv.ly (Tabl. 3.5).
l0
//,,,
.,'/,t".' /a
3l0I
or0(060.016rtttota)r&40DatrLadla
ntlrrl.s P.lio oltt ii.conlrbD rd..t dr r..oFrq rdr!
hftuSw'
3l
ahong th€ six wh.rt Serotyp.s NR-214 accumul.!.d bioisss d lh€ hichcsr
rco$ sws shilc NR-55 shoved th. lost biona @unulrlid dc
{ApFndix 13) rnd Eval.d . r.duction of 16 % in ie an of biomN
a€unrlatid duriigth.oDpt lif. crcl.. This shos tBt NR"234 was rcsitien o
lh. chang. ir dvib"b."bl fplon during th. de ofcop d.v.lopnenr
Aalysis or v&i.na (ANOVA) EHld rh.r th. robl .bov. souid biomds al
mdurily difr.r non+ignifitully anons g.notyp6 (Appendix E) at any l.vcl or
3ignifi@ (P < l% lev€1, 5% lcvei. lelo kwl). Hosvo, ANOVA for six
g.not !6 sho*.d sisrifi@r diffcciG (P < | % lqcl) for biom6 al nabnry
wh.n dE c6p w6 c$G.d to wiabl. oviffi.nld co.ditioB bt $wine in
v.rianr SWs lnd divcAc ),€m (Appe.dix E)
Tfte dd [email protected] in App.ndi6 912 Ev!.1.d ih{ ruiDur ncan ahove
e|Md bionA wc *hic*d bt M.rg!11..99 (15133 lgA.) in SW I philc lobr
ws ehieved by ChikwrlgT {5134 ke/ha) in SW4 ao.g thc six Eenot}?es undor
sludy. Appendix 20 showd th0t in oost of tt! 4s.5 lh. oblcn.d biomr$ rdi.d
bcM@ 8oo yn'l b 1600 s/n': N lour sws virh dE l4d oblsvcd
bion6 of2OO s/mt dd hiel61 bids of 22l)O s/m'?.
A d.oEsing 4.nd w6 ob6.nEd in lh.
SdotyDd unn ohm3. in s*irs lim.- A
ea otsrcd in biodas fron SWI io
bi@N uumulllion loos lhe six
de|!@ of .boul 6%, 22% md 5 l%
Sw2, swl dd SWI ,eperiv.ly
t2
LbL f,s Plt..r ol bioDa .euo|hito! G/Erldry) h *nqr SercryDc.
20llt NR.55 NR.2J2 NR-214
0.82a
,,80f | 2tb
5.19br"Sjgnifi@nralP<l%1.v.1, .'SignifioinlatP<s%tdet,1 SisnifianlatP< I0%levcl. NS-Notr-Signifr.intAll such valus, which sh.rc a omnon E glish lctr.r, .re non{ignificanriydifeE t othwisc lhc, ditrd significlnny at P < t % lovcl
3.2 ttxur Axp Yrfrp coMmxENts
AMrysis or vdire (ANOVA) for r.stiq lh. v&istioi b.rv€. n.tu planr
I'eigft 'Mg sn gdo9p6 sD in lar SWs oE . Friod of four yes (2001-
02 to 200405 orcp s.@s) EELd rh.t pldt h.idr g.ined by the whcat
sqoqT6 ditfer siCnifiMdy (P < l% l.v.l) with chsa6 in sw md )€6(apFndn 8). ANOVA Bulrs rl$ indiot d rhlt lbo 90% ofln. wi.li@ in
pldl hoig of th* Bcnoryt€ $un orq f@ sws ra du€ lo the cntueEs in
In swl, mdinun plo.l h€ighl ws .uaincd by NR-232 ( I l2 cm with SD of 5 cn)
whil. mininun pldt hcidt w.s ob6.d.d in @ofNR_234 (109 cm wilh SD or
.]l
tu
ll0
al00
iE to
60
$4
Phbg f,thlows
-+*d+2001 +(u||r? +-Itr55-JFlll-232 {PNe-23{ +llr!iF99
ttrlt16. {r-tthrrtS(.r) - d tt "Ltthd''
v
M.r8.ll&99 eain.d n.rimlh plut h.ight of 104 cn (SD of ? cn) in ssz whilc
ChrkMr.9? sholed nininm phnt h.idr of I00 cn (sD of4 cn) (^pp.ndix
l0). Comparing rh. No Sw5, plant h.idt w.s Ede.d (FiguE 3.6) by 6 % frcn
Amo.g thc six 3aoD?6 sM in SW3, nrximlm phnl h.ighl {G aeined by
w3f3q-2001 (95 cn qith SD of l2 cfr) lnd loBl by NR-214 (88 cn with SD or
7 cm) (ApFndix ll), Tnus a Edelion of2l % Ms oberycd in pldt hcighl
icro$ gpnoiyp* frch swl ro swl.
wbat gdotw€s $m ir sw4 showcd . Edu.lion of42 % rcgardiDs plot heisnt
frcm SWl. ApFndix 12 shoBld lnlt haiftlo ph n i8ltl w6 obsdcd in
NR-!a (& om witll SD of l5 cm) vhil. th. loEd w.s obefr.d fs chakv!l-97
With the cl@g6 in sw' phnl h.idt tEduo.d linaly (Figr 1.6) tr,on I 12 cm
(sD of5 cm) fs NR 232 in Swl (Appcidix 9) lo 74 cn in Sw4 ror chakwal_g7
(SD or l2 d) (ApDddix l2). Dal! prcscitcd in ApFndix 16 sho{.d thai nd
ol lhc obseFarions r€gird ing pl.nt h.ighl vaicd bctwen 90 cd dd I I 5 cn
AMlysis or vdide (ANOva) 8iEn in Al!.dix 8 @velcd lhat spike lngth
diff6 siGrif6tly oong lh. slmlyp.s u.&r sludv (P < 5% lcv.l)- chmsFs in
spitc ldgin dE b lh. ch$gc in e*in8 limq Eom SWI i' sw4 wE ale
sjeniner (1 < l% lev.l) &d qpLh.d tt% of rhe tdirljon in stike leqlh
(App..d[ 8).
Inswl,cpit.l.nslh vari.d b€tsq 1 0.0 oF (for w,faq-200 1 wilh sDo10.8 cm)
dd 10.9 o (rd Ch,l$rl-97 wiih SD of 0-5 d ard for NR.23{ vilh sD of 0.6
cni (ADpcndix 9), *hil. in Sw2 spik! loglh vdied b.t&cn I0.5 cm (ror NR-
234 rilh SD or 0.6 cm) and 10.9 m (for NR-232 with SD'oi 0,6 cm) (Appendir
r0).
ln Sw3, ndinun spik l.nglt w6 oteoed for NR-214 (10,9 cm *ith SD of
0.,t cm) r NR-232 (10,9 m wirt sD ot0.3 m) *hil. wabq-2001 sho8d
ninimum sgite lengh of 10.0 cr (sith sD of 0.8 cm) {Atp..dix I l). In SW't.
spite l.nlth vai.d b.lr..n 9,9cm for W.fiq-200 1 Md Chak*a l_97 (with sl) ol'
O.l m !d 0.3 cm Gpcrivcly) td 10.2 on fq NR_234 (witn sD 0106.n)
Whot gdotlT.s vdi.d in spikc l.nstt b.rvo l0 ud II cm *im vrnatr{
svine .imc lmss Sws (ApFndix 14. Amons lhe gdortT.s' NR-234 and NR-
232 w@ ih. mosl $nsititc io chdgc it so{irg linc (Fisur. 3 7) rcgsditrs spikc
3,2,3 SnnLEr NuMiEr PlR snxE
tu.lysis of Vaia6 (aNOVA) F.!tn $.t tumber ol spilcLls F spik'
vdi.d siSrir,ddr (/ < r% l4D wilh th. hn., ewins tine ov'r '46'
O€notypic difrcrenc.s dgatding numb.r ofspiktl.ts per stik voE non_
36
I t.t
--a- W.faq20{ I --o- Ch}wl-97 --{- NRJ5-JeNR'232 {-Nl'214 --o-Maerlh 99
I
^ 10.5
1.5
21Phthg Wbdows
Figurc 3.? wnot tpiL. Llgtn (.o) .t .fr4t€d by 3oritrg {indon.
3l
si8njfiont (ApFndn 3). OfilF obc.ftd veirtior h .ub€r ofspit.leb p.r
spik uog wn it rdolncs, 76 % v&iation @ obsod.d Eainly duc lo sws
ln SWl, mdimlm number orspik ler5 p.r spike w.s obsered in Malgalla-99
(20.5 vill sD of 2.1) *nil. W.&q-2001 8!in d lN.sr nDbq of spikclcls pcr
+ik. (19.4 *irh SD of Ll) (ApD..dix 9). Dol! pcsent d in ApD.t'dia I0 Ev.alcd
rhrl in SW2 moc dun 20 spik.l.ts 0., spiL w@ oben.n monS a.noryp.s
undc. mrdy wilh ch.tul-9? tshidiry msidu .mb.r of spikclcrs pcr spikc
(20.8, sD 1.2). How.vd, in SWI nMbo of spilrelcis vd.d b.twecn I9.l md
20. | (ApFndix I I ) lnm8 ln. g.mtrp.s dd in Sw4, n vuicd trlh | 3.0 to l3.t
(App.ndix l2). Mosl of lh. obeoatio@ rcs$dins spik l.|, nunber per spikc
Eicd b.t$en 13 Dd 2l spitclct! Fr spiL (ApFodir | 8).
FiglF 3.3 sho*.d th.r t4nifrc.,n ditrca6 wE ob$Ftd dlv an S1l4 wirh I t
% riuction in nbcr of spikolcG fron lhal ofswl Among Swl. SW2 and
SW3 l!. v&iations Ec 16 ih4 ? v' NR'tt show.d lh. ninihln cficct or
swi.g lime o spik 16 vh.E6, NR_2!2 shs€d th. Ddinrm Edudid in
nunbd ofsDikq 1.15 Fr spikc (Ap!ffdio.s 9r 2)
Thc Gulrs of An.ltsir or vui.e (aNOVA) for rill'E Fr nr Ev"l'n $
sisninc.nt (P < I% level) $ridtion wis obened in nuFber 'ftill'rc due to
.h!8. ir $*ing litu (App.ndix s) I1t vei|rion in sosing time dcountd fot
88 % Egtrding ldirtion in itlkr pr€duction. Th€ dlb ooll*ltd och var rbo
diffs signifi@tly a1P < l% lcv.l md indidcd 8% of vtridtions in numbFor
t3
2l
20
dtr4en
t5
l{2tPhlhg Windovg
{-v!nq200l --o-ct|lIl9? --6--NRJ5
-*-NR'232 {-llR-2r --a-M4ih_99
riguF 3,E Ndb.r ol lPlk l.t! pe. .pllr. of wh"t s 'tr€cte'l
bv tdi'g
79
tillc* dong t€cs DDds sludy- Th. g..ollTic dif@&s, howcYcr! were no!
signifi@i (App€ndjx 3)-
chrnCls in swiog linc si8ri6@tly 'lnucd
rtE number oflille6 p.r o: counlcd
!t nairity (Appendir 8) in rll lh. 8.notyFs. TIE ttlod in Educlion of numbs ol'
rill.E Fr n: B simikr ud liM (Fi8l|E 3.9) in .ll th. crollTcs bur the
ditt?Ens don! gaoryp.s Esr.ding numbq or tiuets pq n' *€E non_
sjgnifiant (App€ndix 8). Chtlwrl-97 oxnibilsd mdimln nnmbtr or rillcu
mo.g l|ic gpnoryp€ it SW I (3t5 p.r n: snn SD of 2'l pcr n) vhiL NR_232
show.d oirinM till6 lr.ductim of I19 Fr m'zPith sD of l? Dd m: (ADp.ndix
9),
MeCl.-99 F.dued dimum iill.6 i. Su/2 (rO5 Fr si *ith sD of '|] p'r n:)
(App.ldix l0). Dlt p'!$Ld in App.idix ll rcslcd rhst ch'kwtr97
ichichd ndinm titl6 pcr 01 i. sw3 (216 pd # viih sD o' 58 pc' nl NR_
2!l pmd*.d ndinm till6 pd n: in s\v'l 0 8l p'r F'] tih sD of 02 pd m')
(appendix l2). cc.dallv, nod of ilE obstnations vsitd b'sd 150 ' lso
lillcn por n? (APP.ndix l9),
ljtc $eh8 of shc.t Blh€d in Edu"d lunter of iilLs Fr Fl @! cd ai
ndunty.nd a reduclion up lo ?9 % wE ob&fl'd in Sw4 4l % in sw3 and 15
% in swz lron rh. .umbd ollilL6 in SWI ac6 soott?€s' Amons oll rh'
eootyFs, MrCh'99 s noF proF 10 chaIgp ir $rins dlr' tnd sho*cd
mliimm rcduonon in tunbs ofdllc$ vnh lhc di'!r sws (FiguE 3 9) ln rhis
C!togp., tle nunbs ollill.u Educld by 23 % in S!v2, 45 % ih sw3 and 33 7"
in SW4, onto.ing with SWI.
ADalrsh ofvsilnce (ANOVA) EEled lh.t no gdi, yield diffcr si$ificanllt
(P < l% lcv.l) *nn lh. chnng. it sing tim. ov4 y.G dd ale dur io vcdlt
vmialions iApp.ndix 8). h eral.d lnat 86 % oflh. tield varidions wet due lo
sws. HoF€6, lttc g€iolyDio dilEEnG lw non{iSnifd Fg!f,laDg Snin
ln swl, rvdg. g@n yi.ld ddg gaottF undcr nudv vti.d t€sEn 4296
kg,,t1. sd 4638 tgl'a (Appddix 9). Cenotvp€ w!f.q_2001 prcduc€d mdimuff
gain ,i.ld of 46ls ks/h! tirh SD ol 596 lgIM Pfiil. rh. rowcst vi'ld lcEl or
4296 kslu (SD oa9?0 kg/ha) ws obs*d in NR_55
At Sw2 $e s.notypic diflGl!re E td-sigifi@t (appcndix l0) waraq-
20ol a8!in poduc.d hisi.n sEin vi.ld of 4405 kg/ba al sw2 (with sD or 562
k^r) ..d NRl5 crain.d lhe loLsr (4027 tg/ha {ilh SD ol r9 ra'h')'
Wafrq-2001 (1285 kCAa with SD of 't9O kg/h') aid Margalla_99 (2598 k/ht
wirfi sD of?74 kg/ha) rcm.in.d dt highcst lnd low€sl vielding g'notvp's in
swl dsp.dircly (Ap!.ndix rl) Dlta pcenld in Appcddix l? €Y'alcd ihat in
sw4, Soin yicld leveh rcoait.d bclow 2441 ks/ha (NR-234) *ilh lhc lowcsr
p'lducrio ofchtlwtl-9? ( | 575 kg/ha)
41
at0
400
350
o 250zr 200
'i rr0
100
t0
0
--.-v.nt200l -{-ch.twl9?--x-NRr]2 --!-NRr14
-+-NRL5-c- Mdslla-99
23Phnting Windows
nrrE 3.9 Nlnb.r ol6lln (Dd D) ol tbtrl ! d|ct'd bv @itrs
Cmin yi.ld Edusd sisificerly i! c& of lalc $*ins
(FisuE 3,10) onin kieht Fr mr veied scnrally b.Nen
(App€ndix 22) acros gdotyp* .nd ovq ydN.
A yield r.ddim of 9/6 va o6srvql in gEnqpG M..g.1h.99 &d NR-214 *nh
d.l!y in $wing fiom SWI lo SW2 (Appendkcs qlo). M:rstlh_99 ag.in shoscd
sosiijvity to dine iimc silh 42'n ud fi% yilld los duc !o d.l.ttd sowing
in swl whcn ohp..ing sill SWI dd Sw2 Gletitly {Appcndies 9l l).
Gcmlly, SdotyF Chttwd_97 povld b b€ lhl nosl vulnodhle *ilh delav in
sving od Brlcd in ticld lN *ha $wn in wiut Sw3 Yicld los up ro
66% *orc sho*n by lhis gEnoqp. comDr ng eelv evitg (swl) wirh ldc
wins (SW4). 6l % yi.ld los *@ obstud bv dolarinB sins frlm sw2 ro
Sw4. ! 48% filh Swl io SW4 (Fi8uE l,l0 md App'ndiet 9_ 12)
Ovdtl, ! yicld rcdudid of ll _ 4%,2t '1e/s' 29 - 4M,40 63rAud45 '
66% *c obsd.d uon8 ln4 g.notvp.s in Sw3 ud SW4 rcspcctivelv $
sdnpaison !o SWI (App.ndies 9'12) Qwlifr@lion of lhis vicld tducron
shoved ! rcdEliot of abolt 60 kgrbt{tav acos rhe 3p!oqP's undcr nrdv wirh
d.l.y in winB irom SW I to SW4 for $k ts
4l
5000
4500
^{|0i};
!"'? 3000
.E 2X0
- 2000
$m
1000
23Phiilg Windoll!
.a-wrttl0l.{-ctlfl!9? -+-Nl-55-.exln32 {-r&231
It r.3,f0 Wr.d gi! yl- 0tAt) |t .&.r'd t! dbr ti'dr
Th. diEd .rd indiret anrribulio of EiM srcwlh od d.wloFcnl
paEm.le6 on yicld @ 6tudied fo! 6 clnorrDes swn in four sowing windows
during 0l -2005 *hdt srcwina edns. Tl. vil".s of sari.dizcd agE$ion
c@mci6 in t blc 3.6 indicar.d $at mof,g ii. pdtr.l.6 biomss, numb€r of
spilclcG Fr spik , dd lmo srin rchl *@ $. no6l inport&'t paEmele6
aff.cring yield. Thc v.lc of lhs [email protected] *cE sldisriolly signifi..nl and
Dosnivc. Thc gr.ab thc biomss lhc gEater muld bc rhc yield and sioiltr would
b€ lruc fd ,umbcr of spitcld lrd 1000 lnin wi8l . Days ro dh6is, m.britv
days .nd iumbd oflille6 (r"r d1 .lso had po6iliv. Ehtionship with ti.ld. Other
6i.blcs likc tl[t h.isit (4) ..d stik lcncrll (ct) had ncl,rivc vllu.s ol
!J REL^'T'OI OF CROP CRO
Dirsdr.lic Epr*nration in FiglE l.ll indiotld thc valu.t of cocldion
@fnciens sho*in8 rhc rclarionship of veioue grcfrh and deveLopmcni
pmdci* ed dtcn dnd ,nd indi@t @ iiburio iNrds vi'ld of6 Fnottlcs
eon i!,i SW! during 20Ol -2005 *heal so*iis ssons Anihdis (Darrt a{d/
rovt g) prld@d di6t p6itirc cttcr dd indiet .trcls ric phnt heishr ("'
numts of spikoleB (Pt ,r*2), nMhs ol tilLr (P'r '1, bioBa (& Per d)
and loo0 s6in w.ight G) bul [email protected] ttc nullined thrcugh ncsative
indaF.r .fr6rs via mdunlv @ztd 4ta &tfis) tnd sti|. losth (") €uhiry in
ftc ov.all n.Srrive coitribuliot of anthelis {Ddri "ler 'to}ing) loMrds vrcld
45
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Dr's io niurirt (/ton @,qd Frdoed diF.t pGiriw cfier ed jndiEt pcnivc
cfr4r thrcud spikc Lnsdr Ga) but rhe ov.otl oonlribliion or oa&riry da's v.s
rcs.{rc thDugh icg.tiv. indiEt.fiels vi. plml hcighl (cr), numbf orspik tclr
(r?r lpil"), rumbq of tille6 (?.r '), b'oflss (kp., ,o) lnd l0oo sEii *eighr (8)
mbcrof rill6 (F '1 [email protected] p6niw indidt diihtion thDudr IO0O Cnin
&ighi k) hn u'. di@l nc8rtivc conribution Md ncgativc indn.ot conlribution
Pla"t hcidit (ar) .xhibned ne!.tiv. diut ed ordatr @nFibution lowdds yictd
tnmgh ornd p6|m.&6 tik spik lagn (cr), nubq of tirh6 (p,f ,:), bi@s(& pt ho) \d 1000 sEin w.idr k). How.vd, pldt hcighr (du) @ rtburcd
pcitiv.ly rfioush numbs orsoil.t.rr Oc' 4'lrr) (Tablc 3.6 & Fism l. I r).
Spilc logth (@) shovrd Gg.iiE @trih o, dirErty od indi@tt rnougn
numbq or spikel.b (p.t rpt&) and biona$ (kpcr ra), tn spil. orposilive indirccr
@nLibutids of numb.r ortillcB (F.l) e'l lo0o cFin sishr G). orc6 sDik.
leneth (06) cmlribut d resitir.ly (P < tC& Lvct) toN(ds yield (risur. 3.ll &
Nlob.r of sritelcts (r, ry,L) sh@ed diEt psitiw co ribdrion (P < t% lcvcr)
lownt yicld dd indiret pGiti!. mEibution dmsn bioBN {& per ,,).
Howcv.r, il ia r.8.tire indiBl .onttibution thbush number oftillcru (Jrr 11 aid
I m0 Bnin *ighr k) Oalle 1.6 & Fisw L I I).
ddgi U@.|' (b?.r ir) o.d. i!. oEdl !.sdE coditidoo otrti p.m.rct
h{rt ri.ld CiaG !.1I & T.u. rO qntdr! sEry!..rdr ody i! 6ir .4
abrs (b r.r b) Fldodicr ftd FdiF drrttrdll (P < Itt kwt)
toEt ,bld- Ed.q, rFa.dE ldld .dac dqd l0oo atrb rdau G) outd
rd u t t oEll po.dr 6d. fi r E6 b Edo.r ttrt tn rh. nbd. n !€bu|l|ld 8 r &t[d r0rp tnh rslr G) F!d!..d rd.dF dlE* €ribodd
c < rx rc*4 roMdt rdd (F8@ t.t r r T$L t.o,
a
3.4,1 AN^Lysrs oF varo^Nc!
Arlrsir of vrioe *d 6irs oui i. dccnim rn. CnnoirF (C) x Envionm.nt
(Yais) {!) x Md.soment Govins windows) (r,r) .trccr on lnin yi.rd, ptanr hcigbr,
spikc lengt, spikelets per spikq ritlcrs F n,, bionN sd IOOO srain wcishr
(Appg'di6 23.29)- Afilyst .le imtudd .tt posibt. int tuiions mone des
faoton on yield, yield cohpon.nis &d olhcr lgronohic tmiis. Anatysh whs donc
usins suins wirdo$ (M), cqorypa! (O), &d rn.r id.nction ,eainsl rcpti€iion.
rid rcmaininA souies of v.ri.rions AoD y*u (E) dd alt possibt. inredcrions *ere
CINOTTPE I E IIRONMEM T M^N^CE ENT
Th. sisnilicml compondk of c x E r M inhraction for yi.ld reE M, aotiowcd by
MxEinr.r&iion,ecxExMinctuliorlddcrEint mclion(App.ndix2j).
Thc signifi@n! @npond$ fm C x E x M inr.rerion for plmt hcighr wcrc M,
rolb*rdbyMxEim.tuiion,OrExM int rurion.ddE(Appcndix24).
Rcg&lina spikc logth, G xE, M x E ift.etid rd cx E r M inle@lion w.B thc
sigririontly conlriburing coopon.nr of c x E x M inLhction in desnding oder
ln cis of spikllob Fr spik., M x ! inLr&lion, M, a.d G x E r M intendion was
th. sisnifient cooibubr dors th. omFftnG of c x E x M inicnclton in
d.$.nding ordcr (Appodix 26).
Rc8lding rill6 Fr m2, thl sig'lifia @pd.nts of O N E x M imeadim BE M
iolldqcd byM x E inleretion dd C x! xM int r&tion (Appcndix 2?).
Among th. @mpon.nts of C x E x M intc@rion sludi.d
m.turity, M play.d r sisnina blc. Anorg olhe6, M x
sisnifi@tly follo$d ty rh. .l'eti ol E ed C x E x
biona ar maruily (App.ndix 28).
R.sldins ll)00 sFin *.i8ht, M plarld in. sjindt contribdio. ntl'sis
rcvear€d l[!r rnons ori.r conponenL3 oa c x E x M idereiio., rhe etr4ls ofM x f]
intcmctio ud E sec sicnilidnt lov!ftls 1000 lnin wchl (ApFndn 29),
Considering yicld &ros all y.ru G x E sum oa squNs dDldin€d only 5% or ihe
lohl, with O @n!cd for l% md E 3%. M plord i siFitiot 6lc i. gmi. ti.ld
*irh the @.tibution of 57% lo lho ror.l $h of rqlE6. Th. M cortribution towards
toral $n oi squEs ws 6?%, 62%, 66% sd 15% Ior plet heisht, lill.4 por m],
biom4 ed lolD griir weigir Bp@tircly. M x E inFtutid @ntibuEd 1094 rs
spik l€ts p€r 3pilc dd O x E inlenclion contjb&d l8% for spike lengrh rowrrds
total suf, of squlA (ADpcndies 23-29).
3,4r C[NorYr'rcP0MM^NCE
Yi.lds of gcmtypG av@8€d sbs sbg vitdws in a t€e rqied Aon 2 4 to 5 0
Vha (rrbL 3.7). Ceiotypac p.rfomancc o*r 3ix t€s Gvcll.d . varyinB lEnd
Duiin8 *hal srNins 3.sn 2001-02 wafdq"200l p.fotr.d tEltei, NR'212 snred
hiS6csl dubg 200243 od 2003-0,1, Ch,la.l-9? .d waf!q'2001 Ffomcn b.nct
5t
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in 200445 ed Chakwl-97 fou(l 5u!.io d!i.g 2005-07 grcwing s6dE (Tablc
t.1).
Th. s.noryF, Ch.|(El-97 poduc.d. ma ri.ld of3817 kgA. avcoged &16
Sws .rd ovq th F6 sD *s 369 kg/ha qith . dfido@ iotcRd of696 *slE ar
t % pFbnbility lcwl Ooblc 3.t). Among ti. gdolrFs und6 sbdy. Mdrgtlla 99 6
rh. lowsr yieldina cullivr (315r hA.) wid SD of 488 ls^a and a confidence
int.nal ol r90 kSAa at 5 % pobibility ldol (tdbL !.?).
All th. senoqT* pdfom.n b*.r durins 2005-06, with mern yi.ld of 4046 ke/ha
&edged &Gs sws and grtrott!.s, a conp|tn wi6 olh.r yas. Hdcvf. rhc$
B.not?.s plld@d d av.ns. yi.ld of !o5l kgn! hrvine sD of258 kgha sith a
@nfidcM irt .v.l of 206 k!A. d!,hg 2002{l *h.tt go,ing s.sn dd it 9a rh.
Aioo6 ar mturitt avcagcd mos rwing windo* in r 'qr
v&icd {mm 9 r ro
lt.7 t'b. Oable 1.3). Conolypi. p.tlmuc ov.r tix v.6 Maled MaBalla-99
.counrlalcd nuidDm biomds duinS 2O0l_02 grwitg sason whilc NR_234
p.rfomed b.n€r mong lhe CEnotyFs dudDg 2OO2_0l NR'55, NR-232 md NR_234
p€rlom.d b€6q during 200144 whil. w!tlq_2001 &cunulaLd hignesr bionas in
2OOL05 ed 200607 s.ens Ch{tw!197 tuund sur€ior d!'ins 2005{6 gmw'ng
sc's wheds, duing Ihc sc t@ Mt4!llt'9t show.d 36 % Ed@tio' in tohl
rbovc 8E!nd bi(fu d mabnty c|. bL 3 8)-
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Rcgdding bion!$ prcduotion, Mdgdl[.99 showod l.$ n.m bionGs pladuclior
avq.s.n .cbs SWs ud wer tne te6. H.ving SD of 109? ke/ha Msrgalh-99
pmduc.d t08,ft k!/ll. bims with ! onfidae intc(.| or 373 kgha.t P < 5 va
pob.lility l.wl (r.blq 3.8). Andnr $. gaorr!6 lrLr srudy, war4q-2001 (l I932
KsAi) ed NR.232 (ll99o kdba) shMd mdidlo biom.s Produlion ow thc
cdttTic p..fotue cg.stin8 bi{)lN p,lduclid 6 fohd ag!i. bcnt duri.8
2OOt{6, wilh Dtu tobl ltow 8bulrd hiomc of 13,179 ls/ha Ndg.d .crcs SWs
ud s.@lyp6. Witi SD or 22,19 tsA., th.* gcnottpd Plduced hiSh.st av.E8c
biomds havhg a @niidcn@ inr€dal ol 1799 kg^a sidild lo vicld (T$lc l7)
senotrpcs could nol terfom vcll resirdins biomr$ prcdudidn al malurit] durinl
200243 gowing @on (Table 1.3)
?ldt h.igh .rbjn.d by th. senoryp6 .wns.d rc$ swins windows 'n
a v€r
vri.d llom 89 cn lo I ll ch (r.bl. 1.9). Ccnotypic pcrfolru@ v8ti.d wilh 'srl)
vanatioN. Amorg the s.nogFs mrximud h.i8l t6 gain d bt NR_214 durins
20ol-02, M48.llo-99 dfins 2oo2{1, NR_232 durins 200344, w.faq_2001 durins
2{X405. Ch*w!1.9? duig 2m546 &d Wdrq-2001 duing 200ff)7 Mtt8!llo-99
sincd 16 kigil Dd sho*d 14 % dd I I % tldudion h Phnl hcichr durinB 2005_
06 od 2006-07 growins *sns @petiv.lv, F!bl.3q nod th' m'd h'i8hl
gained by all gcnotypcs dudtg lh. rcsp€nw v..6
Av@s. pldl hcighl of ihs senotvra Ed.in d h.low 100 cn Wt'rq-2001' NR_
5t md NR-212 slin d ndn Pbd h.ish of99 cm wilh sD of8 d 9cd"d?cm
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EsFclircly G!bl. 3.9). Ihc enfirrd€ inEd.l of pl.rt h.ieh fr rhes sdotypcs
varied b.twen s cn ed 7 cm (P < 5% l.v.l).
Sinilr! lo yi.ld .nd biomss prcduolion, lhe. rono!?es sained md miximun
plul hcidl of 105 cm duri'g 2005{6 ed lhc 6m nininm plml heidl was
obsw.d during 200243 what crewins ffis (I. blc 1.9).
Tillcr prsdlcti@ lmm8 sdoqDer awEg.d .@s ewing vhdows in a y6 Eicd
fFm 166 pq m: to 170 p<r mr (lrbl.l.l0l C.noqp,c p.rlom$(e owr.i: )cd.
Ev.!l.d a varlins tEnd. Duins vhel lro*ing seen 2001_02 Chakwal_97
p.{om.d b.n r, Mesrlla-99 poduc.d hi$.r numb.r of lille6 (per n:) ooro$ Sws
duritr! 2OO2.O3 md 2003.{X, wdlq-2ool podwd hish.r numb€r orriuds (td ni)
in 2OO4-O5 dd lls found sup€ric duri.8 200546 go*ing r..ss (Table l.l0)
Owdl, W.n4-2ml pbduced ,wio@ nudb.r of lillc6 wid! a nd of 279 per o:
bavinS SD of 53 p.r nr *ith . .onfid.nc. incdrl ol4l pet mtr ar P < 5% lcvcl
(f.bl! 3.lO). Among rhe 8€noOTB uids studv, NR_234 w,s the lot.sr lill.6
prcducing genolypc wnh n@ lilld pmduc on of 219 pe! m? &ros Sws ed ovcr
rhc ycss. SD of4l lillec p.r m':6ob$dcd for NR'214 ed ' dnfidence inlc al
of 13 till.6 Fr m'] w6 found for this men (P < t % l.v.l) (Tablc I l0).
C..oirpic pafo,lM Egardins Drldu.tid of rill4 (nnb.F Fr m1 vs bcltcr
don.s 2005-06, wilh lI4 med lill6 p.r m'zpddlccd e|N sws dd Itn'lvp's
('Idbl.3,tO). SD for thk meo @ t5 tilkdp.rn: hltins a confidotoe inr'dalol
44 rill.rs p.r m: .nund lhi m@ oll14lilles p€r n'al P < 5% level Likcotl'cr
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crop tsdclctt DiriDm outq of lilLd yw Pl.d@d duins 2002-{tl Atcn8c
nunh.. oftillas produc.d ffi Svs tnd 8lmqD* dwry 20lD{3 govinB sen
@ 220 pq n' hrviry sD of I o tilb6 p.r n': ud t @tidcM of onlv 3 till.E p..
m'!l 2 < t% l.v.l (Tahlc 3.l0).
l0OO Sali qcight .rcmged iorN wing rindors in . ytm varied liom 3 I g ro 43 3
Cfrbl. L I | ), Durinr wh..a gowing s.en 2001-02 NR_55 gain.d mdinum .vstag.
l00l) gni. wignt ({O d ffi s*s in th.r yd. NR_212 mked htl'6t durins
2002-01 (40 g). NR-214 &[kv!d nujDM lO0O gnin *ighl (36 s) during 2003_04.
whilcNR-232 gii.cdndinum l0O0snin*.ight(4] g)in2005_06Oable3 ll)
Ov.Ell, NR.2l2 poduc.d a 64n IOOO siin w.ilbt ol39 s dldas{d eoss Sws
and ovd lhc y.G, SD w6 3 s *ith a @nli.LM i.t Pal 61 2 3 at / < 5% ld'l
O!bl. 3.1l). Among t|l. 9o0g!6 und.r n!d, Mt4.lla-99 pbdlc'd gBins wirh
ihe lost I ()tD gnin wisr €6g)sidSDof 3 g tld. @trlid'M inLmlol? s al
Oenortpic padomdce t4 fobd tct|g duing
wisht of 19 g rvs.s.d ..6s Sws dd 3.notvF3
20Ol-{X pNods.d gains vilh 15 s *idt of l00O
s6in rcigh! .mng ycs uda sludv Orbl. l l r)
2002-03, with n*n 1000 sru
Hoeoea, th€ gFnoiYp.s dlnn8
gsiN wli.h wd rh. lden 1000
Spike l.ngth did .ol exnibil much vti.tion ond lh' av'6ce spike l€n8rh imonr
genolyp.s lcros svins *indoys in a tlir v'icd fiom g on lo I I cm (Table I l2)
M@ muiDum spikc ldgdr of I I m dd niiimM of l0 cd ws dlculd'd &oss
59
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sx.r -d M lt! y4 SiriHy, {&. LStl Ei.d bdn a l0 cd d ll sn
n6'g!d .dw Srt/l rld SEeqip€ fi.bh t l2).
Cqtq'licrrft.rcG&!Fnrw.Ld|!tft.16tmtaFailt!wi6dnu Itro2l (Iibb3.lt oEll 19-att d.areetdFl'&.rbru.gqt ir EWr {d FE stultr fl||, E.lo otdtrcd $!- lw' tn
im$ci rlrdlry lh|t faEtypic dfft.st E not obsry.d c8/dlry nMb6
of4e|.nFdr.oFib'4
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3.4J R'L{TIOM,r|IP OF WM^T Gf,NOTYPTS TTITX ENYIRONMDNT L V^Th8LUS,
YE^RS ^rD
SOwrNc WNDows rcR YrslD
R.sulls obt!rcd dn r pbjdring lhc si.bl6 in a biplol b*d on Principtl
ComDon.r dd CL$if.iid AmlFis (PCCA) for ri.ld (FigF 3 12) sd thc dau
rEsr&d ir lrFndh 30 deol.d dur ovsdl tlc b6l t@ w6 2005_06 olhcr
v.nabhs Elating to coD (yicld componcnb .nd dlronomic lr.ib) cnd dlnonmcnr
(blal pEoipirdion, marn monlhly &6pr.t r., bJigl* sunshin€ duntion lnd solar
rdiarion for lh. month! ofodobd, Nd.hb.r, De.mbd, JeDary, Febdary. MNh.
April rd M!y) rw .l$ gn o tl* pojetion pl&6 ro b. .irhd posjliwrv d
n.8.tircly asi.Ed with yicld (t!bh l. 14 od FisrG I l2)
Pnnoipel Compon.Dt (PC) I qplaiN 67. of thc loltl variee od !c2 cxPlains
28% v.ride, Eig.nv.luc \wr@ .rpkiod b, th. eoretdan b.tw@. ttt
tuspective @icd wids or s&8in8 lak,'r wiables) fttr Pct Nd Pcz r.ind
ro b. 4.02 &d l.?o rcspetiEly. cMnhriwly lh4 No focroE splrincn 95% of rhc
Anons lhc tei.bl6 @ndibudDg in PCl, dc moe lignifi@t onlri6utiom mrde bv
Scnotypic hits irclud.d dq€ bl@ lo dth6i! Dd @tlrity; edilmd|d frcloB
includ.d els r.dillim duits MNh, twn8. ronFrrue dunns April
pEipilatior dqing D.€ntd. sDshino dutalion dunng lanrttv. F b dry'
Dec.mbcr; dd mdagcme.t incltrded soving in SW I
t,
f*16'1:6t03*
Fi@ r.l2 PFjeti@ of ttu wdk: d tte (1r2) ft'd pbE ' biplot b"'d dir-dq ';i f; 6 *i-r ""xi* ltdirs rhc Ehrid$iP wi$ dvi'qncnEl
"rr"'i* y.* -o *i"g *in{l.*. for )'i.td EnviFnnenlal utitbld oed in lhe
'."r*i. i,iruaa ma o"itoirni- (P) li mm,.v.Eg' ronpedu' m ll t @ut
liiii'i iiiii"-i" i";; iss, Li or. nai"rim tsR) in Mrft:/dlv ind
iiii*ilJ dii ri. ii .' r o. r i, r i or, 02, or, 04 .nn oi ro rtE do* or ocroh"i'- dtGa *tia.a a"v. ilrsr b A!i!6i'' (AI M'unv (M'I Plnn'
rillin-rpln rirr*E .' fn spi. tarll (sL) sDik't'n Nmbd pa 3p|r' (sN)
.iliiii;li,i iafor roir' d-r:ne -"* .tt.o'i'!"d - w- w'ic'200r' c -dr"*"a-oli ll ; li-li. vj - rR-ti N1 - NR'23'
'id M - M'rell'+e
65
Dnys riLco to mU6ir dd babrity GlFtrpic hir!); $.driE dutdiol\ rsElc
r.ne.d!F ..d $|tr ndidis duirg NNnbd GnvidE@d f-loE) Nrc
inp.ro .rDltining v&r!16 for Pc2.
To tuih.r elu.idd. tnc resulls, tE cor.lation of qot growh dd d.rcloPn.nl
wnrbb eith yi.ld qs F.rom.d, Cofrhtlon b.tsq p€rcent dift Fe of
vri.hl6 wi6 !.|6t ditrE@ of i.ld sN $wits windo4 rd v.s *a rl$
Ffad.d (T.lL 39, It d.9itt t||t tl* yicld of l|rc 8.mlvp6 s h'8hlv
' q..r.n vi|! biooN follo*.d by rilLr Fr nt .!d pt rr h.istt Olhd Eilbhs
showld . t.ryiry inr.Ectron *ith yi.ld of vdids apnorre
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3.5 IA4 @IERIa^-rION ^ND
EV^IU^IION OT APSIM-WHLAT MOOULI
3.5,1 Ev^LU^noN oP APSTM-W&r MoDTLE
Eviu.t,on of.ny sinuldion nod.l aglinsl d iid.p.nd.nl daL set is d .$.nrirl
sl.p in mod.l d.v.lopmcnr In $. [email protected] wort, APSIM-Whqt module was tesled for
whe* phcnolo8y, bionr$ podtrction tud yi.ld wilh lh. obj.ctiv.s lo prcdici thc
d$tion of sbwlh, biomoss poduclion and yicld of th. wheat.
3.5,r.1 Ctup Ph.mlog/ rd Morptoloo'
wirh thc s.Mic gddic @r,d4l5 $G mod.l wa un.blc to hl t@u6{cl} rhc
duEtion of mp srcfih. Sinulared 6pms FlrIdin8 @umnce of anthcts ro.
wafiq.2ool wcr.&lid lhd nduftn v.|u6 bt 3lo 37 days Oabl.3.15 and
App.idir 3l). tlNever, for ChalMl-9? siftul.tions w@ !@uare ror D.c.mbcr
ewina hut ,ith Nov.mb€r winas lnlh*is wB d.l.t.d hy 3 10 5 &ys compldd ro
m4!Ed v.ls. In Ocrobcr sryin& ar lEit E 3imultti arlis bv up ro I *8k5.
Io. .n adv@ lift NR-55 (mNne of &66k rc siDulatd 6li.t bv I to 3
days *irh O.iob€r and November s*iDg, ltrl with D.mba svins n wis dclivcd
bt 5 days Sjnuldod sd m€suEd mdr *.Fdsnincantlv diiterent (P < t% level)
for !11 sowins windows lor Chak*al9?, Octobq and Norembcr sowincs for wirlq_
20Ol {hil. dly &d laL ewirss fq NR-55 (T.bl. 3 15) l for $.se scnotvpcs
tuscd aM 0.0a to 0.43 for $vina uindo$ I, 2, 3 dd 4
Thc sihlld.d.nd nNEd rontit rd Wfaq_2001 *a undcFpEnided bv lr t'
l2 dars in soving windows 1, 2, 3 dd 4 with I vdicd b'tween 0 06 dd 0 41 (T{bic
116.hd appendix 32). Like wie fic nod.l undcFprcdictcd lhe 'natutilv
tor
Ch.ldrrg? lid NR_55 by 8 b 26 d!)5 md I to 16 dlvs Epcotivelv All sinul'tcd
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ind Fc*ur.d mds reF signincstly dinercnl (P < 5% l.vcl) for wafaq.2ool dd
Chrkwdl-97 rhilc for NR.55, $sings in Oclolq and @ly Norcdber havc
[email protected] diff.€d (P < 5% ldel) ndEd rnd siDulabd @uftne olndurny
daye |ftd s*ing. I v!i.d b.tBM 0.06 rnd O 4l lor wdrq-200 | , b.twci 0.06 and
0.96 for Chah,.€l-97, ed 0,36 md 0-75 for NR-55 (T.bl! L r 6).
'nE non.l undq-Fdi.r.d tlxt lEisit iGpaliw of e*ing tim. OabL 3.l7 and
Appcndix 33). Sinulaicd and n6uEd mein! wd liSnindndy dirlFnr (P< 59{
Er€l) for all drc scnolyp.s (tiz.. walaq-2001, Ch.ls.l_g?. Mdgalla-99, NR_55. NR
212 nd NR-234).
APSTM-whdt modulc using the s.neric cuhive odflici.nls und.rpcdictcd
bide rd ch.kwl-9? ed w!f!f2oo I os .ll rh. wing eindom tliil. rd NR_
tt, NR-232, NR-234 dd M!4.11._99 it ud.Fp.dict d biqN wilh Ocrober md
Novehber $wins dol6 lnd d lnc sdc imc ovcFpEdiclcd lor Dc..mbel sowing
d.t6. This @9ut cxhibit d . sistriii@nr dilt Mc. {P < 5% l't'l) dmons all $e
simubt.d .rd ob6.d.d D.s for ch.*v.!97 NR-232. NR-214 t.d Me€alla 99
wnh all thc wirg witutows *hcl% for Waf!q_20o1 dd NR_55 mcan bionass for
D.ccnbs sowinSs vis non{isnifiditlv diffcFnt (P < 5% lovcl) onlv, all orher
m@5 w.re tgnr li@nrly drlTRnr (Iabh l l 8 rnd App'ndrx J4)
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3.5,1.3 Yi.ld rd Yt ldconnon dtIrE p|in rt gql of the mod.l k io pcdicr yi.ld. Thc odu.lio p|@s aor yictd
show.n th.l APslM"sheal modulc @uld not pcdicl th. wh.d yield a@u lely usins
g.icric cuhivlr @mci.nt lo Ihe gcrcty!.s uidd study rnd showed rhar *hsr yicld
k ondq-pEdicr.d sd sain y.bh is ot.FpEdiot d (Trhl. 3_t9 md T.bt. l_20).
Th. hod.l uder-ptldicrcd yilld (T!bk 3,20) sd ov+pFdicr sai. Ei.d. O.bl.
3.l9) of w.fu-2001 for rh. drlr s|. orisiMt d dm .tl sqing windoss with i bi.s
of443 - 3085 k! hr'i dd 0.004 - 0,0!2 I secd-r, r.sp.div.ty. simul.r.d v.^us
n6uEd mds fq dEs rn p{t!t@6 wE sigrifioutly ditLMt (P < 5% td.t).
Rcgardine yicld ofchalwql.97,6c nodel und.rpEdiered for SWs I - 3 md ovcF
pr.dicrcd ad ldc D.enb.r wing, Tlrc hi.s lor mdd-Fdicrioi BnC.d fmm 642 ro
2616 ls hdl whil. for SW4 it {6 owrpldi.td with a bics of lor0 ks ha'.
Sinnlale! dd nduEd m.us s?rc sigrilimtly difi.Enl (P < 5% t.v.t) trtudins
HMve., B6in w.ight @ oveFpEdicr.d .xc.pt for S!\r2 wirh r bi8 of O 00{ ro
O.Olo s s.n r ed simularcd njd sE sisliliMtly difrcEnt fmn m6uEd mons
(fablc3,l9sdAppendix 35).
Thc modcl ud.rplldict borh yi.ld ed Snin rcklt ofNR-55 widl a bia of Il2 ro
ll04 kg hd and 0.003lo 0.014 gsed'. UsinS g.ncio ouhivlr coaficicnls. $e
mod.l und.FpEdtucd yi6ld (witn r bi6 of l24l io 2943 kg hr'r) ..d ow-pcdicL
B6jr yicld (drwinS r bi&s of o.0ol oo 0.006I s..nr) olNR-232. All th. simul cd
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lad *a obd.d for NR-234. thd@pndicti@ of leld h.! . bi6 of I l9l to 2Jr5
k hr- siddlbd vqu @&d * € .i9itoidy dieBi .r..pr ftr
Novldq ai!t; Cr.n' rd8h r uddfqlc|.d dh ady $rtD8 .!d oE
FllEldl eith LL siq GlbL 3.19 .!d ApFdr 3t,
AIAIM-qnatE <bb @d6.!Gdicr.d yi.ld of M|r8.I&99 d@tt br Lt wirs in
DE@ba. Siddtr.d .!d rftd Ea bi 6E S$r. E n8!iE .ndy dffad(P< 5 % LE!) ri|!. bi! of293 - 2212 trbi G.[L 3:0 dd ADddn 30,
'lvitl siitr si8ht g*n[y oE-F!dicr.4 tb. E d.l u,il6,ptEdict rho yi.ld ofllee
n oD!6 rirh r biridt bi! of 30E5 k hdr br v.n+2001. fu .I !.d.rtF d.
n ('.l orq!!.bd |i. yidd rid h. etlgr ir D@bF. D.vniB in
--n6s yi.ld t@ oa@d nts ng8!.t d rtrl .ih6ho! i! tb @!iE
co.frci@b @y bc Fquirld io hiw r good [email protected] t tsea ddLLd &d
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3.5,2 P^MMnEtuzanoN or AIrSM-Wst^r MoDULE
Wh{t grc*tt sd dcvclopnmi in APSIM'Whor module Espond 1o @lhd md
F.nlBch.nt oditiotrs thbuSn a sd of cuhiv! @fiicienE Tdhats aom @ch
d.t. s.t ehicb exp€ri.nccd no o. liniLd w.t.r slEs *.rc uscd tor nod'l
pdftmetorialion. Cocmci.til rcsulibg in 0 g@d lil bctween sinul'kd md mas!rcd
vrlu6 wE mainni.d !1 then digiMl val4i The nodel ad run aot the se
lMtioi rnd tsnre.(s) !o.rtmin. tu ssdn.gf_fit b.den rh. pEnided dd
mccurcd valud €Seding Dhlnolog, bioN, gdin wcisl* ond vicld bv i.cesing
or d@rc6i.& Ning a smrll tLp, tlo vd@ of cultiv4 oemcidls not in a C@d nt
tcrwen sinulaEd dd m6!Ed dala (ApFndir I )
3.5.2.1 CropP[elology.nd Morpholo&/
lsins th. modificd c*fid6l5 (Appendir l) 8ood osr@cnt w$ oblrined b€rweei
lll th. simuhcd otpltr lnd @ur.d v.lus Eg.iding eth.sb d.t . mluritv dal.
ud plot h.ish. Md simul.r.d od mduld Gp.tses.d$ sowins windots
md ge.oty!€s vcre compdabl€ vilh bia vithin 100 fot anll).sk d.t., 175 for
nlturity drl! dd 8.83 ior plait h.islt (appcndix 37) Nonjisnilic.nt difi€Enes
b.tl6 tle simulrr.d and m6ur€d M3 wF fdnd fff rhe pantuh
Rcgdiding d.ys lo anlhsk, lhe slop. of lh. rcgtsim equation was le$ than I 0
(Chrkwrl-g7 dd NR-55) lid *6 slishtlv goi.r lnu l0 in $' cs waraq 200r
(FiglEL13 & ppc tir l?) Rcs0tding M,Iurilv tlE slaF oflh' Esdsi@ e{u'tion
o6 slichtly gr..ter $an l.O for Chakw.l97 !d l*s rhan l 0 for wdtq_2001 and
NR-55 (Figurc 3.14 & AppdJix 17) ln lhc o.so ol plont h'i8hl (Fig!re I 15 &
ApFrdix lA sbp. ofdc FsEsion cqulion w dishlv sFttcr thin I 0 {or all
32
liO
I 130
7125ztm:115E 110
5 too
100
onordm..|.(DAl)
Itr'.at,CEp.tbdff.!d nrt ditl- (r?ttla
&rdra) sa .rit ttoi. t' 2! 5 .!d {
o
-
180
170
160
150
110
130
120
120 130 170
Ittin 3.r4 Corl.ti.on ot drohr.d .d rdrd rtutttv (2!,8 '/r.td/t8) $ro.r wbs *bdot. r' 2' 3 !d 4
't,to '150 i60
Obsod€d l{aturity (DASI
E4
*'i9rr8. -
'"-f,'c-.arfo.
1300
't 100
s00
700
700 900 1100 1300
Ob€eryed Plant height (nm)
nrrF 3.r5 Cdp.ti.os ol nn r.a.d.!.1.gr.d DLoa ldrnt (L[)
rro.. dilr ti.dd r, 2, 3 ud 4.
E5
s.noryFi @F MrE Jh 99 (ApFtdix l7).
Us. of lhc nodiU.d ccfficients tud. il c4ihicit in imprcving thc sidul.cd
phcnoloSt ind moPhology oa rhcii !.nottp.5. This 8lodncs-of-fit betwcor
sinular.d rnd n6r€d lalues .mbled $e dod.l io bqier sinDl.l. lhc biomcss
.ccumul ion lnd partilioning du ng th. plefs lif. oyol. by betler sinularing lhc
go*d lnd &volopDcir of$. phnt which ulrih.t ly cnhdd th€ nod.l s .bilily lo
Widl modificd co.flicienc. ihesimul.hd and m..surcd bio64 mmpaEd accurulcly
.cds.ll lh. !owi4 windows ed ep.olyp.s *ith . biE {ilhin 272 r'he slope ofrhc
EgBion .qulior us 16 do 1.0 for Wd.4.2001, Ch!kual-97 rd NR_lt whilc
n ws slighrly 8Ear.r fi4 1.0 a@ NR-2la NR-234 md Margalla-g (ApD€rdix 38
ud FiguE l.16). Dili@n@t bawn simuhl.d lnd medtd mans *.4 ndn_
sisnificst (P < 5% lcv.l). Snnurdld v!l@ for biomas &rcs sws show.d an
und.lprcdiclion ot bioms pFduciio, in .ll s.nolyFs Mdjmu
ob*n.d in ca& of Senotyp€ NR_212 with !n und€FpEdiclion of 4% Und.r_
Dfrdicad linulot d vahd veied by l% (M.rs!lla-99) and 2% (wt&q_2001
Ch.lsrl-97. NR-t5 md NR-234) tDn ncsFd t.h6 for orhs gdotvpes
3.s,2J Yi.!d .!d ai.|d orFor.trtt
Mo sinlht d ralu. for yicld sors SWs mr sfthin . bi6 oI aboul I29 (App'ndix
l9 and figuE 3,1?). Diftrenoes b.twen sinulakd aid mssured n'ans werc nor_
86
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
4000 6000
Ob..d.d Blom!. (kg h. ,
Fkr. 3'16 Corp.roor oldDultLd ud d.{!rcd biou$ (Ls l| r)
rws.@lngrbdM l,2.I.od 4
8000 '10000
x tG56x ifil32
+[..?."": "
AttY".4{lc l
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0.03
omo.e 0.03 0.04 0.05
Ot .rtdcttwdfrtc..d4) |
nrN !.rl [email protected] o(.hd.d .d r..tttd rnh "igh' (g rc'd 5
.Nr| rcrtnt rlrdltvr l' ,' ! d +
E9
sim.l.kn l€lc show.i an udd-D|ldicriu of yi.ld for wdrq-2001, Chats€l-97
ond NR-234, dd vei.d by 2% ardn n6uEd slu6. Hos6. fd NR-212 rdM$a.11.49, dE sinuLt d ourpur rhosd u owFpcdicrion of a% nqn D@Ed
Tn. difrcErces be$€en lhc n.e simul.l.d $d mdsuEd Boin weight mos
$wing windoNs wd. non{ignin@i (ApD.idjx 38 &d lig@ 3.lq wnh a bi6
witnir 0.001 qms a de cutiva6. Thc sloF oflh. rcgr.$jon cqDotion vas les
In $e palueldizlion pdert $. modincd clhivlr coemciens ecu€&|,
Esll .d rh. ph6ic develorn.nt of dE s.norype usd in lhis dudy which lad b
goodn.sf-ft b.tEn simul.icd .(l t|BuEd r.l!6 qlrdin3 lh. @n@ ol
etb6B lnd m:Enry ftE hp|wcmcnl rn th. mod.l s Frfomme srh
pome&rizld crllivm als impbv.d lh. bimG. .oumul.tion lnd yield in rhc*
sinot !€5 &ms ewing *ind$s. Th.s. dult! dd.lop.d conf(lene in rhe
AfslM-whol 6odule, ud il enhinc.d tho utilizltion ofthis bioinfornarils tool for
$ntcgio msagemenr dccisions Egarding whoat orcp swn Mder r.infed onditions
3.6 A!54(!4DE!rq!@41!9!
3.6,r n^wr LlP^mNowR
Two distincr Eintall pattems @ ob*nd in $inf.d ircc ol Islamobd (Fisurc L I9).
On. as sumne., which is l@dly qlled .s khirii season $arting fiom .,une and
ext nd.d ulil S.pr.nb.r dd odrr a wintr, ld.lly tr@n 6 6bi sMn, tho
duBtion ot *nich ii ftm Octobq ro M.y, Acd.l dinflll d.6 wa plon d in rn
.ggE8!t.n polyn.nial fom.( .ssqrr.d ov.r ! S.n oa 3 ,6 dd *h dtu poinr
wiln . dsc be. Tfie elFis of lons t.rn dinill dar! of Islmabnd ovq 4? y@u
(1961-2007) Bing STAITSTICA E!€Ld lh.l in d. oinf.d .g ol Isltm.bld, !bo!t
60 % r.inf.ll@ur€d during sunher dd 40 % during winter seNn (FiCuE 3.19).
Analrsis llso Ftsll.d lhat tho lons-lom dlnf.ll p.tlch aE showing incrctsi|3
lrcnds it d* of 4ourence of sunDq nini.ll in 6inf.d al6 whees, it show.d !
slighr d.csing tsd in winLr Binf.ll ovq thb p.dod of 47,qB (FisuE l,lt)
During suhncr pdiod it is obsdtd lh.l sinf.ll inEnsity in tl'e monrh of Jult h.3
incer.d ovdtimc *h.rs, tb€ nd|}l ol s.ttcBbd h6 shdn a ddl* in mjnflll
inrcnsity. This scplmher dinlitll d..|!e k of SErt on&m s n 6fi prcvidc
bdcr rcsidual moisluE for sNing oi{hd dlnng Oclobd (Fi8uF 3.20)
3.6.' STUDY ON NTINT^L! '^TTm
OVER NME ISING APSIM MODiL
T!. Sou$.m O$illalio, *hich is ! Fsw ol lir pE$uE b€t*En the {sl 3nd
..n ftpiol Plcif'c hd .n inDo.hnt i.U!.r o ninfall in nmv Egids or rh'
qsu p.nioldlt nonsml ECioG i. h3 of lhc onsd sd end of ndsn 'nd
tic mounl ol miDfalt likely lo b. @ivEd durirg thc stsn A Eguldtv occutring
cyolc of Soulhorn O$ill.tion lndd (sol). Eilcli.g th. an pBsuE bet*en DaNid
lnd Tlhirj, c.n bo utiliad for clinttic prodiclids Pdnicuhnv d;nfall up 10 co0plc ot
9l
e
iigd 3.r9 Idr t d nhnl P.tt*t lt t lr{b..! ow riL'(r96r-20r}7).
l\_.ii \i
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rtrn 3.a) Lat art rdrfl !d-r r llr.tat d.rto! tl' nr'rr 'rJuly, Altln rd f.?t rber t{d 1951"t005. Aohrl lrlnfiI d'hrx
ploL.d h.!.gr.gr.d r.bi.rLl btr.t.ggq.t d ov.r ' |Pi! ol5
t-ra
93
ta. It hd r .ts!& ctct. of fou F6 brr stong *g.iirc dd pGitiw ph'$ or
$OI @ld [email protected] |hF io sn y6' hlc d G B Nino dd tr Nifir dots
Th. l@g !6t w.$a dd! (1961-2004 ol liLmbi<t wE 'l$ x'lv4d 6ins
APSIM do&l. Th. put!.6. of hb u.lrstu s r. lrudv dE Fl jo'hip b'twtr
Sd|n6 Ot i na@ h{hi (SOl) ptc .nd dt P.tEm of lrthd chus' du' 'o
tnd sol !tr* 6dc ninf.d @tdidons of tddib.d TL nod'l hB dsdv ben
Ddidcd llF lkilhyro rsl wt$ SOI dls 6 6 itda of $cr' utltsh Tl'c @lts
siwn h flsrE 3 21 indi{r.d rhx dE ,ulv sol $s tnd tlF ninflll vdLbilit
durng Ocloo.FNo@ba (ttE F*ing lin. of whaq h'€ ' tdili* li'k Mo3
@h olho. Th. .ndv.is |]$ indi{t d di.( b4s.d on lo'r t'm ninflll d!i! (1961_
2(lo7l.lhc Istm!!.d dt hs a'l* td 35% Fsibilitv of'r"'din8 mcdis ninftll
{in @siscrdv nq d.nd cdad.ndv n g w SOI ph&t Esccli*lv dunng
!,6J smoY ox YIILD lrx^vrcr otv||3 r $ric APSIM iroDlL
TIF APSIM io&l *s usd to u.lva tl* iop"t ofsol ph6 on ri6l vicld or
vrioB &no$?.t og vsiDt S\vs for lsbn$'d 'ra
CiSq' 3 22 trd 32!) Tnc
sinuhlid udvsi! Er.dinc p.nidding of eLrt vi'14 'wng'd 'ff whs
windo*s. cing SOI pne mB pctfodcd h show'i tul ewing tli4 did
Novmba (SWl ud SWa) s wln.r.U' to 'lindic
nuonl&oN 8ot$Gd bv SOI
pl'e ii July. ft E di.lv dw io Potriilitv of @u|:t@ of Einnlt |l dt' !t'sh
n !p of crn? ed.blishn m Thc titutdlon sndi6 clqlv d'PicLd $'r $c vitld
i.crred to t!.ot I th *itt lh. sol Pls 3 dunnS .,ul' G 6p'Fn io Dte 5
during thc s. motn ft Ftdiottd tn'l ninill @ivtd in Eldih to cop
,t"-eg
E
Figle !.tl R.l.tio lip b€twd r.i t[ o.curMcc v$i.bility drtitrg
OcroDcr-Nd.rb€r .!d dortlrlt SOI ph{.ln JuIy. Ar.ry!tu wu dorc
uing rt!.| nirfrll dtuing r96t-2007. Ttc horiDrtal lin. ilitic.t d
d.di.! nhLU lor tn.| p.iio.L
F.oohri..r crCc i! .fi.ktb dnDd .oFrlil b db EnE 'ilrloE ir sol
!t!c 3, Dr imrid 6& rb td n tL Fmlc ol Sol FE2-d 3
tntLl'r. L.yidd d.lF.dfl ln d F!i.d.bdy h ldnd .r@F! to
da !.!a!! ofst fra Thit gpo d btrio{o ny tr ord b &ci|. &r dr
srri! of rH ia Ltotr -dr b ts- i bE Fia b o|l or 'n d
96
3,5
3.2
.292.3
2.1
2.6
2.5
rklE 3.2t SiDoho.d rlat yi.ld ov.i y...r (lt6r-2007) ror ld.u.b.dp.rtitior.d .g.hrt July SOI pb.G ..d .ng.d lcGs towhg tr|ndow
o,2,3, & l).
97
3,1
^xi5r0
:,,
2.6
2.5
3
Fisun 3.23 S|[trht d slal yLld owr ydn 0951-2007) for l.ba.bdp.nitior.d .t i!.t &ly SOI pt.F rd N.ngrd .cru gdotyD6
93
Figurc 3.24 A vld of rb€.t.rop (t k n d tte.ut of De.Eb..) sr..tdif,.Er ibB in t!. fi.ld
DISSUSSION
CEAPr:ER 4
DTSCUSSION
4,1 PERIORMAflCE Of WITE T GENOTYPIS OVIR SOWINC TIMIS
Th€ 3udi6 hN. d.piolcd lnat vdi io iD climario r6m.lcrs havc a lery
sisnifi@t .f..r on Ffot:rc of wnar cbp in Birf€d .16. Th. *,lEt
s(Ni.g vindom n.v! shoM lhal by bri.ging vriarjon io ewin! rim. rhe
walh.r vdirtion could b. b.tt r n.nag.d or urilizcd. All rhc g.nolyp.s under
sludy Espond.d ir simild fainion io climd. rdilbles.
Wheit yi.ld Educrion by.tel.ying owitrg tine fr.m $wing during t5,25
ocrob.i (swl) to swin8 durirS 10-17 Novcnb.r (Sw2) w6 mud t0 %.
Hower, a ticld Gduolior of66 % w6 obsdr€d wid so*ins durins 10-24
D@nba (sw4) Doduoing a 60 t€/htdry Edlclid *6s d. g.ncrrpcs under
sbdy for rhis .E du. ro rlduciid in crcp gD*{h, &wlopfrc.r lnd yi.td
componcm!. Amo.s these @por.Dts biomdE nub€r of spit.l.ls pcr spikc.
ond 1000 e6in w.ight red the mosl ihDort nt pEdictos of tield, Slhilar
findings aE al$ rcpon.d by Asiaer al., (2003) in which a positiv. omlation or
gnin ti.ld wD sho*n *itn 1000 anin slight !d b€ing d iopoder itrdicattr of
gEin yi.ld, 1000 86in *.ighr stald bc coNid.Fd in btecding prcsluncs
In t!. studiB it v6 obseoed tbat.bovc sourd bionss Educd up ro 50 % in
Svl 6 @np€&d to SW l. nis Eductio in bius is dE 10 ! lin@ Educlion.
of uD ro , %, ob*rcd in tillq p{du.rion rN th€ soolype in this stody
t00
Sihilaly pattd of biM6 tuuhrid in dt. pE.nl sody Eul.d a
@cad.nbly ditr Ml Fn.n in .d !.s.ll dE 8!.ortDcs lryn in SWl, Ttis
1.8 ph& i. th. pdr.h @ld b. dpl.incd lm $c climlti. f*tcs drring lh.
whar lro*ing $er in $ir @ wlFE Lhp.rerE 8ndutlly ddlin* frcm rhc
dd ofNotcnhq !o iou.ry ( lo.dix 30),ln dt lody d.r 1imc. it ha betr
obercd lh.t durins lh..6p gDttn cy.b &rs cldds tmancd lrEE bul nin
did not @or ud tti! siulrid pcwilcd for etdl @b cuning in Edu.d
trighr Mshie hoc Dd $Lr Edi.li6. This idt d6 .op 8re*lh t.d
d*lopdcnt dF to low pholelFdcticrlly .livc 6di.lioE b.i.g lgiwd bv
thc cbp drrins ic wed.riE 8owin8 ph.* ud n.y hr. uhiniGly .|Ietd thc
SDit.l.ls numbc. p- tpik d.r.miB thc r@br ol snins pcr $ir. and lh.
snin numbd p.r unh .F (Sbfrr a ar. l9l)- Bowwr, unla*. SFin numb.r'
litd. El.tid$ip h6 ban Epon d bcsa f.in scirht ud gnin vicld
Fld.dcr ed Br@ (2000) d.gib.d t vcry d@ Ehionslip b.tqan sEin
yLld .r{ snin nunhd pd o':. Th. sisnifdl @nlribltion of 8!in wishl
low.ds gnin yi.ld in ptlst sudr didt b. duc io $. Prclag.d P.riod ol
wrd.tiE lrowd rd nry h!rc diEl .trda ofsdEis &d mttuntv @46 a/€r
e',rAl by urilazin8 lh. PholdFth.L m.d. Fior !o sth6b Undd ech a
@ndnio, Dho{.6}nlh.t6 .v.ihbility }ouB mr bc I liniling l&tor' .nd thc
Dhol6yntuE ddc plior to dlhai! 3i!.ilic! lv @tritrlcd lo*&d! gain vi'ld
6 atlrin d tr Bidin8.r.r.i., (197) ud lh.E wdld b. no @mFtilid ol
pltotosyithL supply or .lsinihtc p.niioitrg md8 irdividul 8Ein3
rdtiorEd in rtudig br Alifa d, (2003), Sing! Dd Singn €(x)l ) !d Dohv@u
l0l
ed A**nF (1999). Tfic orld po$ibiliry nat b. $!r sflin ,Mber produccd
}* belo* pot ndal .d a . qult oa rcduclid ir grin [email protected] pq spile bay
haw @mp.r$r.d bwrds nc 86ii *i8fii &d ultimarely trribured
signin@dy iov.r& gnin yi.ld. Tfis findinSs e in line vilh lh. Buls
epoiicd by F€de.ick tud cub.nro ( l99t),
CENoryrx x ENvrRoNMrNr x M^N^c[MrNr (c x E x Mi
The Esults of Mlysh of veia4 havc Fkled that the nosl significdt
compondt of G x E x M int n tior for whqt yi.ld w6 mmg.menl faoior
.sp*ially sdving windoB (M). Th. sisnifioM of lhis f&lor 8 4ts the
ihporlrMor$wingtin rld lhl f..1rh!| dr s.lction of optimrm swing timc
suld ddemirc th. sucatu| ompLlion of $c crop's lifc cycle in a gircn
ovionftnr of ninf.d rgridlruE. Sinil.r frndings hNe ben EDo.r.d by
Dsftn e0,00) in which hc imludd th. modd.t. clinatic @rdiriq such s
fwonbl€ tebFmtEs, ud efrqi.nt wro $pply. W.rr.vlihbility in thc Iom
of 6inf.ll is of imnae impotse p.nioldly und.r ainl.d @ndilions. Under
Einfed envionn.nt, th? dominatin8 f&rors for lhc choic. or oprimun so{ing
rinc i.ctuded availabb sil noisforc dd tho panoms of rainfall rccciven which
covem.! the csp esublishmcnl by atrcctins lhc germination and cn.Bence
Thc stud! havc clarly indic.tod l$ thc al.cdd ofoPtimuD sNing linc wolld
also h.lp to .lff lh€ $mci.nt duFtion of tii. fot iiud initi.liot md tdcqDalc
numbs of till6 p€r n: *iU 6uh in .n blthdcnt ol so.d cFp tud The
t@lti also ftpior dd olrinum sviry iin. of *ha! u Lr ninLd dvinment
t02
.lF EUl6 in ircBing lnin yi.ld du. 0o thc L{radc ovirDMcnhl condiriois
prcv.il.d dDing grai, fillins Friod. DlL dso tv€thn dht i! sPite of lhc
voriltiors in sowing tin., lll lh. sdotyFs und.r dldy aoh.d at mduiry sb8.
*jrhin s. sr& of lim.. This shov.! $c imporrse ot elalins suitablc
g.notyp6 whicb ooutd Ffm brnor to coPc will lhe 3.&ml veialion and
poducc oprimlm Snin yiold nAr.otirc ol lhe time tl(ei lo ntlurity Th.se
findinSs & in comboation *itt Muchow dr al, (1994) snd A!8.dal and Kalrc
( | 994), I is su2edcd thrt turlhd sudi6 @ld b. u&r bl.n on p.rromaDe ol
coltivds 6y swing lhcm ct dly sowing linc. ln such stodi.s lons_ssn
coltiv.6 may te in.lud.d !o .v!lu.t in @ of edly Bins @curcnce sinirarl,
shonnudion dnive my bc d'rdicd it @ of dchltd @uftncc of niB it is
ft s 3ugspsLd dEl in sch duni.s u* ofs..soEl clinotc foFdslins bosed oi
SOt phses may bc incorpomt d for elqction of oprinun $wing iin. 3nd
suiilbl. oultrw. This @uld be b.t&r .xphin d bv lsing cbp sinulalion
modcli.g in @junclion win wd ftacstiiS lD sist in dcision nakinl
b.scd on cco-physiololi€l cxplmlions (M.inke.r z/, 1996i M.inkc ?r d/-
200r).
P^R^vTTERIZ^TION ^ITD
EV^LU^fl ON Og APSIM.WHUT
MODULI
Modcl vdidarid tCridt ind?p.nktt dltr el is i .snrial scP i' Dodel u* ror
var ious ectdio ualys (D..t .r ai, l9 79), Tbc p'rf6tion of modcl vdidation
rcqliEs thd a v.ridstcd crcp sinllarion ho&! could giv' ecoralc pcdicrion ol
cop phlnoloe/, bioms plducrio, !d vicld of lh' shdt croD r a g'v'n
l0l
A@rdjngty in the s1udie! dE cvlluation oltlE nonel6 Qtricd olt wnh rhc
&t!al obFflctions rade tm lnc *nd cet Stow uder loosl oiditions lsins
various ewing *indows. In lfic study tll. cultivar Cenetio cocmci.nls wcre
calibnt€d to hav. a gmdnes-of-fit botw.cn 3imulaled and nssurcd vilues ol'
ciop grcwlh lnd d.vdopned. Using lh. Fodel i' built sencric oullivr
@ff,cients th. nodcl re 'mbh
ro tac* eulcly rhe @p ph€nologjcal dc.6
aMding b rh. actual okrvdionr m!d. in th. freld. For csnplc. rhe
ccuren@ ofdlhosis md naturity s6.ith* under€srinaled or ov.Feslim{od
!s oonpsred lo m€asuFd !alu6 fot lhe 6 genoltTes ltese laraations wcrc
b€@u* of th. r6on lhal in A?SlM-Wh..t module the fian .nd end of each
phdologr.l lrrsc is dchin d br rfi.ml tih. which is uhind.lv .ffelcd bv
v.mlietio sd rhotopcdod. A@rdinsly iD $e sludiB lh€ tnsiiirnics b
pholop€riod and v.rnalisiion ich e cunild spccific ww F_tdjlslcd to makc
the model.*umte in tdicrins crcp ph.nologi@lslnges ptiticula v occurcnce
of uthesis dnd maturity. Sinilir so* ha b..n r€ported on sPnns whcrr
pnembgicll d.vclopm.nt by tdry ., a?., (1937), Hedoko {l9r)' O Lcarv
(l 994) and Aseng €r "t,
(1998). In lh. prcat nudv thc e or o'difi'd crlrivir
sfleric osflici.nt Ead. n Dossihle to build a confidenco in APs|M-wheat
bodule io siDuhrc dE cBp pn€nolog/ wnh non{isdfidr ditr'rcnccs (ar P <
5% levcl) in simulat d and n6uEd vrlucs
cnvidn.nt wid a se1 of Edl mmscocni ptelioes i.e., tiDe of sowinS, sil
typ., .trhivir us.d ed auilable noisrurc d.
Sif,il&ly, nle modcl al$ undeRslimrt d lh. plml h.ight. In A!SjM, lhe ptanr
hcighl is a ftnction of slen w.idt pcr pl.ni Siic.,lh. sionlaled biomas {as
iko not in a sed as*mdr wilh m..sudd bioa, e n Equn€d m adjusrmenr
in |n. cftici.nrs ro DEdi.t bio ss, plul hcidt d yi.ld. tn the pr@s of
vdndjoq th€.djutuhb in rlF ndilrio. e.raier (s n atre.rcd thc
bioa @unulalion @lcullt d fom inr.E pcn Ediltios) and !s r 6uh plrht
h.idt lsaimt stem widl .chi.v!d a sood ,itrs dd non-sl8ritidi difi€Ences
w.E foud bciws sinuhen bioru$ prcdklion, pldl h.i8ht dd yield
eoFprFd to dl valu.s o6sep.d b rh. fi.|d. wi6 tnese adjustments @nfidcncc
w.s buill in lhe APSIM-whar modulc.nd ultirul.ly il porcd asa bioinfomlliG
lool which wd utiliad ir rhe pBit srudi.s ro bctrr understond what cmp
Dofoll@@ in hirfed @nditioB dd .l5o u5. il for lactiql nMagemcnr
d.cisions q{din8 sNiry *in.lows ol*h.at.
... PSIM MODBL UMIZ^TION
In d. pMr srudis, rhc palu.l.nzd APSIM nodcl wa us€d s a lml ror
i.lalrnB oprimum {wins linc dd cuhivtt ..d als lhe rc\ihence in I'oppinb
systems.gainslclimaticvariahilirr,Th.signific.n€ofsimilarexo.iehasbeei
rcponcd by Asswal er at (1994), Hunr d a/ (1996), M.inrc e.,l, (1997) and
mrny otlE6. In ihese nrdi.s, th.E ha ben.onsidcBble prcgrG had. in rhc
ficld ol ssoml climak fotc.ding lnd lh. us of lhis skill in slecling oplimum
e*ing 1im. ed suilabL .ultjE @!pl.d vilh @p simulalio nod.ls Th. stldv
ptovidcd h.lD to study dE inp!.t ofEl Nino South.d o$illalio (lNso) on
Einfcll p6trcms dd icBFFdtuG vlnbilily und.r Finfed dvimnm'nr ol
t05
Whilc using APSIM no&l !o sludy long-l.m Einaall dal! ol tslmabad fom
196l to 200?, il cvealcd an obvios tr.nd of inoEaing sumdcr ninlall and
deccding wintDr rainfall ov.r lhal p.iod. Th. obeed lF.ds dlso indicated a
sicnificml Lnddcy low..ds ircrc$cd dinfrll in ,uly and dooM&d mins in
Septenb$. B6.d on information Beno.tcd $o ellysis rcvcolcd !n opponunity
of dly $wing ed hold t!. f( tlE Fldlion ofopliDuh sowing time in ll. lsr
N€ek or O.tob.r Getions 4.1, 4.2) d lno solcctid of s*ins 1im. in rhh rainred
ap depdd m moislDrc auil.biliiy. In eodoe 6 rh.F findirua slone ei a/
(1996) rle showcd rhc rclalionrnip oi sol phss dd ni,fall vdiahility for
Aosraliaand My orhd Egids of d. mnd, ln th. [email protected] stud, an afidmDt
w.s M& to .v.luaE |'lq inpr.t ol SOI o dinfill *ilbility !nd.r l@l
€nvi@t duiiS Ocrob..Norcmb.' ldiod, Thc ulysir using probabiliric
apF@h evdlcd thal bascd on los rd dinfrll drl4 th. klmlb3d arc hadc
44% dd 3s% p.ssibility of Mdins h.di& dinftll with trsisi.nlly nes ao
ed @nsis1€Dtly nc9liv. SOI ph.s6, E.F.liv.ly dlting July. Furrher wrk is
rcquircd on miltiplc l@rions !o 4riblish lhn lrk of mi6f.ll vsi.bility *ith sol
phases, $ thal ssonal lo@ting could b. uscd opeBtionauy for be(e.
stnthesis of Ddagement decisions.
lllmabrd. sbn e, al (199r) hrvc .ls usd rhis l@l lo srudy ih. ctimaric
prdicrioB fn nsk 's$nd of *nan phdaio! .ls wh6.
Gen€raiio ofinfomilio. formultiplc l@rtionr BinBph6.s oftne SOI coupl.d
with hahanislic cop simuldio modch will .llow th. naase! or deision
nald to hena qu,r iry lhc cliMtic tisb. sinitu opinid hd b.cn cxplained bv
t06
Mciirc., d (19J6). Tt Fnid06irg ofdnultbd $tcd ricldr d dE bcis of
tuly sol lte .c wtN dhe willow! EELd rh4 uitrg rtis 3till of
ssl clitur. to@dng b.rd d SOI de tCfu. rtdt ord'rd s4 0E
optimm sing sindq h db Egid dld b. &tnbd b.fd! linc rd sdtrurt oid [email protected]. urril th. bld of M@bo. Th. slDdid arso
qdlm.d th. @ of.oD sihul.rion mod.b "a 'flt 6' io srup the Flw or
ninfill owr. grcein8 s.as" (M.itrk Dd Hdncr,1997i K{tin8 dd M.inkc.
1998).
la
In lhs sludies li8ninmi difl.r.@s veF obsed in vhdt crop p{rformnco
eM o@ four swing windoK Gin8 3ir qmoqT.s, Dclay in e*ins limc
signifiMtly Edued lhe grain yi.ld and bioma acoumulotion. TID tenotn€s ini'q@
E,pdt of voriou3 sroutl! d.v.lopn€nt rnd yicld @mpono$ behav.d rdi.bly.
Among rh* t€tmcteE tioha, nmbd ofspikel.ls pcr spike, .nd 1000 eruin
wighr s.c th. nosl impo.tlnt p.m.t6 to b€ usd lot prcdiction of yield lor
rhd scrcttTc' SowinB tim s , crcp nd.sd.r'l to.l phlEd r signifi@nt
conkibulid td.r& lh. 8ftin yicl4 refl6ting lhe impodtuce of rh. sclection of
ortimum $wing tim. of wn.d h th. 6inf.i !16. APSIM nod.l w6 mluar.d
and pddehrizcd usins rclurl clidrtic d.t! of Isl.mab.d. This validded crop
simul.lid nod.l v6 u5.d s ! tool for udq$.nling &d Mlrzin3 oplinun
swin8 limc,.utiv&:nd clid.tic b€harior. Tho sinul.tion Eul6 sho*td th.!
e*ing rlier mid Noqbq eG vulm6bl.lo clim.lic tlucrurdot aov.med by
Soutl'.h Osoillation lnda (SOD ph05c in July. A El.lionship of clibtte and
shsr ti.ld d.piotcd $at {h4l yi.ld incle ofabod I rAa *as obsd.d vhcn
$c cstinti6 ol SOI ph6. I dutinA Joly wcd cmsid.Ed for prediclion Doces of
lh. @, Srudid further highliShLd moE dinaall v.riabilitv wi$ 44% and 35v.
pGibiliry of [email protected] n.die ainfall wilh wsisldtlv nw m aid
ooisist ntly ncgr ive sol pha3ts. rcsp.liivclt during July Th' {trdies have
ddt sdicr $ cop simul.ri@ no&|, 6 an lgdmi' rdl 6uld b'
{cestully wd 1o ud.rsldd cFp bio"d}nmism climatc and crcp
meagmed sinullan@ulv lo dploF lhc poicnlial vi'ld of vn4t In a svcn
envhonnent. Hoqeler. nifihd *ott is sulgcsLd. io tin* lhc Einfall $riabilirv in
lhis dinftd rcft wilh SOI phB s lhat $. SOI bded s6o@l forssths could
103
a. |Fd b !e..dl tlulF ll.Nb tu tb eddl l,i.d ffin8
rb.bw.!d dir.blc drdE @ dtlrL lddc b s .ldtddo r.dihE
@FdlttlE .Tl'. snldin of o.d.l ol'rr iDlid. haiidr $ll.dlg
d hFLdelo Dict w ' iry n trhr ttfll d idFdr|! GrlB rd
Flvc.!.!a.ol ft.ib yirild &.t!.|! dt -i4
lo
SEFERENCES
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n !06, gsot Tc var.r od nito&n rv.il.biliry d pttddivity of wh@l
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n r.d/l l3:93-103.
Asgary.l, P. K., N. Kal'z, A. I(, Sind .nd S. K. Singh. l9tl Anallzins lh.
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ApDodi! 21. rrcqrecy dblfibdio! ftl r|,l)0 !Ei! s.iaht G).obo dN r.E l|la tor .it gdolyP. t|m i. aoor .otiltii.dos dlrllt 2001-2005 'b..t !wi!g .eu. crn.d li!.
rd..rirg ttc dp4c.l .or.l.
t42
ApDadi! 22.Inq!@cr diLib|l|or foryi.ld (4Pdl) OD.cr.dous@ r.iia tor .i! gdottl- .on b ldr .dirg tindN. d!d!g
201)l-r,0lt5 trat gwilg laoa Cln .l li.. r.|L.aitg rh. dDeLdroE L
143
App..du 23. A!.ly!ir ol v.ntnc o! gnir yiddl lor tir yo.(.rvimtrDdt!), four lof,ing whdor! (or!rs.d.rt) trd 3ir Ccnoty96
rtrd .ll Dorllbl. intc.rctiotr8,
1.45
388.74
1.42
sa
804lt.ll 5161.02
15982.14
2107931_t7
3962t.44
t06612.33
t522t.t4
5l?196.3t
229924.36
7991.17
7924.29
23t7,67
7407.38
57466.26
15328.29
2_Jl
5r.28
25.t0
6.69
lD]89.l9 6W.20
12n27.50 2289.71
4638D261
-'
srgnirsnt ar l < iq" pct. " signiii@nl rl P < 5% level,
'Signific! .1? < I0% level, NsNotSigiilicolI ceffcidi of Vsittid: 13.91 %
app.ndn 24. A!.tFn of v.rLr.. o! Dbrt ndgl1l for si! yer(etrvirutrrol!), lorr rori!8 rbdowr (Du.s@.!t) rid ' G.'otyp6
ind .D D@ibL ilt tulio!!.
NS
st ,'t
M!E
GrE
C!f,rM
t2t.52
40132.58
299.96
6t.76
t!511,53
59,99
6.06
1331.76
t,33
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2954-36
9423,67
1246.96
3011.62
1449.50
r0,20
9U.19 97.43
r04.02
1.37
33,13 8.15
66_n 6.55
10.07
60821.50
i-signiftotarP. re"kd. " sisrilid!{ P< 5% l.v.l,* sienificer d P < l0% l.v.l. NS Not Signinc.nlll co€rtcidt ofvdiotid: 1 34 %
145
Altodir 25. At.litri of vrrn!.. on .PiL hlrt I for tn yor(6vinno.!t'), lo!. ro*bt tildNt (Dd.so.!t) .nd lit G.logpq
ss3-65
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6.62
l.n
t.t2
1_39
t!.!0
s.36
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GrM
GrE
.3t
2,t8
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0.?3
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7.51
2.11
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7.16
25.15
1.90
0.57 1.68
0.14
7to.47
I C4ffEid ofvlrhio 5 52%
-i]];-irddp<r9rL*l,"si9ifi dlttP<t%lml'. sim-ifidr .r P < l(M lcwl, NS Nol Silnrliot
apDdd! 26. An.t.lt of v.nsa ot tplt lG|! pe. .ptt fo. tir vs.(ervin!!.!tt), ronr to trgri orr (E.mg.n .t).nd tn GaotT€
.nd .ll Dosibl. ilt.r.sliotrs.JS nS
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168.25
t2.t2
56,08
2.42
t0.64
12,91
4.06
88,26
382
14,85
t2.03
5.67
NS
NS
29,21
60,96
! cemcicnt of vdiation: 4.!4 %
l.0l
103.t7 0,72
-<i;m6at:iqtua r' sienifioit .t P < 5% tevcl'I Sigifr clntitP< lO% l.vol, NSNotSisnificiil
ADpctrdi! 2?. AndFi! of vrrirnc. o! till€B P.r m'i for !n yc.r(eNironneni!), rorruowilg windo*t (m.r.generr) tld rir ccnotvpcr
rld rll ocriDl. irt n tiotrs.ss
r2.79
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2.24
'15.24
2265
2.77
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ud.ll Ddibl. bt r.cdoL
tq,Br0J5
tt ,a,t F
5010521 4.t1
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545C23.11
s56t66,Xa
2436306-a7 at2102,29 66.54
lE82r 16.5r a31346,28 3534
69671,5a 5.?l
3906t,t6
1209t,57
t045101.65
206274620
175?56{,J0 l2N5,2a
458!E.80 1.76
3757A191.91
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" si$ific.nl .l P < l0n'6 level. NS Nol Signifiqnl! c@fliddi of vdi.tion: 9 93 %
t49
aDDddir 29. Ar.ty.i. oa V.ri.!e d (bNud lnir t.l8bd fo' lit tqla;vh!ra..), lolr &tLl'ildq. (Ddg.!6t) .!d .u G'notvpq
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85.31
1.93
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17.06
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116fi
t16.16
89.11 5,93
5,93
t.50
t.85
t.22
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'.
t50
Appddn 30. Ar.r.g. gnir l.ld, yi.ld conpon€trb, otne. .go!obi.tnit r.l.t.d ao .rct gortn rld dd.loPddq bo.tnly tot l pNipil.fon,
6..r Dotr.tb &Ep.dtnrq bnglt .u!thi!. drntior ..d d.ily soLrndidio.t i! .tct vot,
2001.1t2 2tD2-lri 2lrllloa
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12,6
10,9
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30.5
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1X.r
I0.6
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l5l
1'0142 20024t 20tt344 t00a-os r005.06 200G07
27.8 28,2 25.3 l t,lBisnt S!Nni!. Dr do!
sst0
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18.47
224.7
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175.2
105.3
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t52
o
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1&
'130
120
110
tm
90
80
EO 90 100 110 1m 130
Ob66rv.d Arihe8ie (DASI
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Appdilk 31, CoDp.rtuor olliNl.t d.nd na!rcd ltnqi, (Dc{ oler
Sor&al Nub.n l, 2, 3 & a i! p.rutt d ttrl c.Liv.r !u. btliqt
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153
o
=
o
200
180
160
110
120
100
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Oboeryed X.tu,ity (DAS)
Appodtr 3r. ConFrisor ofsinul.lsd |!d E..srr.d ndrdty (Dt" 4&.
Jor,l,r8). NuDb.n t, 2, ! & /t h p.nrthq.! fllth ctlttvtr o.u. iqdlc.l.
loritrg rtldN l, 2, 3 ud a sp..rivdy.
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800
600
400
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300 600 900
Obsorv.d Phn[ heigt't (rm)
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,{ppadlt 34. CoEprno! ofliuul.t .l fid nAlr.d biou.s (*8 hi )
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.@d r). Nnnb.E r, t, 3 & 4 lo p.r.nlbdd *llb .!ltlv.r n.n. iBdioto
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t51
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Nrhh€F 1, 4 3 & ,l h p.Mtldd ril! .qltiv.r brn. iDdi..te !@ing
wi d l' 2' ! rtrd 4 rultcdv.ty.
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