DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic ... · Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives o Michigan did not recover from 2001 recession,

IT’S BIGGER THAN DATA.

Nick Gandhi, Economic Analyst

DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives


The Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives

We are the official source for high-quality demographic and labor market information for the

state of Michigan and its regions. We administer the state’s federal-state cooperative programs

with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau and produce high-quality

information and analysis through grants from the U.S. Department of Labor and from partner

agencies in the state of Michigan. We provide our national, state, and local partners and

customers with accurate, objective, reliable, timely, accessible, and transparent

information and insights.


Topics of discussion

o Shifts in the labor force

o Contingent labor force report (BLS)

o Potential future impact of autonomous vehicles


Population Shifts


Who Is and Who Is Not in the Labor Force


West Michigan Works! population holds steady throughout the recession years, outpaces the state during recovery

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

1,450,000

9,750,000

9,800,000

9,850,000

9,900,000

9,950,000

10,000,000

10,050,000

10,100,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Population

State Population WMW Population

Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives

‐0.80%

‐0.60%

‐0.40%

‐0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Population Growth Rate

State Growth WMW Growth


West Michigan Works! region is aging, but remains well below the state median age by three years

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

State Median Age WMW Median Age

Note: West Michigan Works! median age is an approximation attained using a weighted average Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

o 36.8: approximate median age in West Michigan Works! region, up from 36 in 2010

o 39.8: median age in the state of Michigan, up from 39 in 2010

o Difference of three years between Michigan and the WMW region

o 38: United States median age


Poverty rates slightly increase in state while slightly decreasing in the West Michigan Works! region

Note: West Michigan Works! poverty rate is an approximation attained using a weighted averageSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 & 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

o West Michigan Works! region fell from 14.2% in 2011 to 14% in 2016

o Michigan poverty rate increased from 15.7% in 2011 to 16.3% in 2016

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2011 2016

State Poverty Rate WMW Poverty Rate


The share of people over the age of 25 in the West Michigan Works! region having at least a bachelor’s degree has been increasing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

o Share with only a high school diploma has decreased by 1.9% in the WMW region

o Share with a bachelor’s degree or higher has increased by 3.2% in the WMW region

o The WMW region now has a higher share with a bachelor’s degree or higher than the state 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

High school graduate Bachelor's degree or higher

2009 2016


Labor Force Shifts


During recovery, West Michigan Works! region gained some separation from Michigan in terms of unemployment rate before slowing down

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

State Unemployment Rate WMW Unemployment Rate


o Michigan did not recover from 2001 recession, WMW region did slightly

o WMW region rate recovers quicker in the early 2010’s before the Michigan rate starts to catch up in 2015

o Michigan peaks at an unemployment rate of 13.7% while WMW region peaks 12.3% the same year


Total employment in the West Michigan Works! region was hit hard by the recession, but recovered quicker and well outgrew previous highs

3,682,088

3,156,948

3,734,397

532,260 470,057

604,357

‐

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

3,200,000

3,300,000

3,400,000

3,500,000

3,600,000

3,700,000

3,800,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Statewide Total Employment WMW Total Employment


o WMW employment dropped by 11.7% from its peak to its low during the recession

o WMW employment has since increased by 28.6%, passing the previous high in 2013

o Michigan employment dropped by 14.3%from its peak to its low during the recession

o Michigan employment has since increased by 18.3%, recently passing the previous high in 2016


Michigan industries hit harder in some areas during the recession, recovers, but not at the same pace as West Michigan Works! region


o Large, but smaller decrease in construction and manufacturing in WMW region compared to Michigan

o Much larger rebound in professional and business services in WMW region

o Larger increase in education and health services along with leisure and hospitality in WMW region compared to Michigan ‐12.5%

‐14.3%

‐7.8%

5.7%

‐35.9%

‐4.8%

‐21.7%

‐13.8%

11.0%

‐34.5%

‐8.9%

‐13.0%

‐8.1%

13.3%

‐24.2%

‐5.7%

‐22.0%

‐13.1%

9.0%

‐28.1%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Other Services (except PublicAdministration)

Natural Resources and Mining

Manufacturing

Leisure and Hospitality

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health Services

Construction

Pre‐Recession High to Recession Low

WMW State

10.8%

28.5%

12.8%

15.3%

32.5%

14.4%

2.7%

10.0%

11.4%

30.7%

17.3%

55.4%

17.8%

12.6%

36.5%

24.6%

‐3.6%

13.7%

23.2%

34.1%

Recession Low to Post‐Recession High

WMW State


Our publications

o Career Outlook lists 20 high-demand and/or high wage occupations through 2026 for differing education levels

o Includes high school diploma or equivalent

o Also includes STEM, middle-skill, and high-skill jobs


Contingent Labor Force (BLS)


o First report since 2005

o What is a contingent worker?

• Worker who does not expect their job to last or whose job is temporary, excluding personal reasons

o Does not include those who found work and were paid through mobile apps or websites

• Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, etc.o Survey focuses on job at which most hours are worked

• Contingent workers might be counted as non-contingent if they work other types of jobs

Introduction and limitations with the nationwide report


Contingent workers highlights

o 3.8% (5.9 million) of workers held contingent jobs in May 2017

• Down from 4.1% in February 2005

o Contingent workers twice as likely to be under 25 and work part time

o Much more likely to be employed in professional and related occupations

o Weekly median earnings were 77% of what non-contingent workers earn

o Contingent workers were less likely to have health insurance coverage from any source

o About half as likely to be eligible for employer-provided pension or retirement plans


Alternative employment arrangements highlights

o Fell to 10.1% of total employment in 2017 (10.7% in 2005)

o Since 2005, independent contractors fell the most, from 7.4% of total employment to 6.9%

o 10.1% of those employed in alternative employment arrangements were considered

contingent


Estimates of electronically mediated work excluded from the contingent labor force report

o 1.6 million electronically mediated workers (1% of total employment)

o 0.6% of all employed did this work in person, 0.5% was exclusively online

o Whites overrepresented exclusively online, African Americans overrepresented in person

o Workers in alternative employment arrangements were more likely to have done

electronically mediated work


Autonomous Vehicles


Quick introduction

o Nationwide report prepared in June 2018 by several experts

• Erica L. Groshen, Susan Helper, John Paul MacDuffie, Charles Carson

o Very long-term projections (2051)

o Four gaps in bridging those who’ve lost jobs with new jobs

• Geography, Skills, Worker voice, Investment

o Four differing adoption scenarios, both aggressive and conservative

• Relating to passenger vehicles and trucks


Expected costs of autonomous vehicles

o Job loss• 47%-57% of primary driver jobs eliminated, 27%-28% of other on-the-job driver jobs eliminated

o Job duty changes• 7.7 million of those employed in 2016 expected to have their job duties changed

o 1.4-2.6 million jobs expected to be eliminated • Heaviest impact in the early 2040’s

o $70k-$87k lost in lifetime wealth per displaced worker• $104-$189 billion in costs to their families and communities as a whole


Expected benefits of autonomous vehicles

o Job creation

• 0.7-1.7 million new jobs in AV-related, other transportation, and goods and services industries

o Annual accident reduction

• Conservative estimates project $500 million in costs avoided, 18,000 lives saved, and 2.3 million injuries

avoided

o Productivity changes

• 70 billion hours driven in 2016, some of this time can now be used productively


Questions?


Nick GandhiEconomic Analyst(517) [email protected]

Documents

DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic ... · Source: DTMB, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives o Michigan did not recover from 2001 recession,