16
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 15 July 2020 Update RATINGS DZ BANK AG Domicile Frankfurt am Main, Germany Long Term CRR Aa1 Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating - Fgn Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Debt Aa1 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Long Term Deposit Aa1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Negative Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Analyst Contacts Bernhard Held, CFA +49.69.70730.973 VP-Sr Credit Officer [email protected] Mark C Jenkinson +44.20.7772.5432 Associate Analyst [email protected] Alexander Hendricks, CFA +49.69.70730.779 Associate Managing Director [email protected] DZ BANK AG Update to credit analysis Summary We assign Aa1/P-1 deposit, senior unsecured and Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) to DZ BANK AG (DZ BANK), as well as A1 junior senior unsecured debt and A3 subordinate debt ratings. We also assign a baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and a2 Adjusted BCA. The outlook on the bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings is negative. DZ BANK's Aa1 deposit and senior unsecured ratings reflect the bank's baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), three notches of rating uplift from its membership in the institutional protection scheme of the banking group that forms the German cooperative banking association, Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken (BVR), the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis to its liabilities and one notch government support, given its membership in the BVR. DZ BANK's baa2 BCA reflects the bank's overall sound solvency profile, based on satisfactory asset quality; a strong capitalisation and satisfactory profitability; and its overall sound liquidity profile, with a high share of liquid assets providing sufficient mitigation to some dependence on market funding. The baa2 BCA further reflects DZ BANK's diversification across businesses that are only partly intercorrelated, such as banking, asset management and insurance, but also some risk concentrations that could result in a more rapid deterioration of asset quality in an adverse scenario. Our view on the bank's BCA could change if the coronavirus credit shock led to a sustained erosion of DZ BANK's solvency strengths. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios 2.7% 15.1% 0.3% 58.7% 53.6% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) DZ BANK AG (BCA: baa2) Median baa2-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Source: Moody's Investors Service

DZ BANK AG€¦ · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 DZ BANK AG (Consolidated Financials) [1] 12-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3

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Page 1: DZ BANK AG€¦ · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Key indicators Exhibit 2 DZ BANK AG (Consolidated Financials) [1] 12-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION15 July 2020

Update

RATINGS

DZ BANK AGDomicile Frankfurt am Main,

Germany

Long Term CRR Aa1

Type LT Counterparty RiskRating - Fgn Curr

Outlook Not Assigned

Long Term Debt Aa1

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Negative

Long Term Deposit Aa1

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Negative

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Analyst Contacts

Bernhard Held, CFA +49.69.70730.973VP-Sr Credit [email protected]

Mark C Jenkinson +44.20.7772.5432Associate [email protected]

Alexander Hendricks,CFA

+49.69.70730.779

Associate Managing [email protected]

DZ BANK AGUpdate to credit analysis

SummaryWe assign Aa1/P-1 deposit, senior unsecured and Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) to DZBANK AG (DZ BANK), as well as A1 junior senior unsecured debt and A3 subordinate debtratings. We also assign a baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and a2 Adjusted BCA. Theoutlook on the bank's long-term debt and deposit ratings is negative.

DZ BANK's Aa1 deposit and senior unsecured ratings reflect the bank's baa2 Baseline CreditAssessment (BCA), three notches of rating uplift from its membership in the institutionalprotection scheme of the banking group that forms the German cooperative bankingassociation, Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken (BVR), theapplication of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis to its liabilities and one notchgovernment support, given its membership in the BVR.

DZ BANK's baa2 BCA reflects the bank's overall sound solvency profile, based on satisfactoryasset quality; a strong capitalisation and satisfactory profitability; and its overall soundliquidity profile, with a high share of liquid assets providing sufficient mitigation to somedependence on market funding. The baa2 BCA further reflects DZ BANK's diversificationacross businesses that are only partly intercorrelated, such as banking, asset managementand insurance, but also some risk concentrations that could result in a more rapiddeterioration of asset quality in an adverse scenario. Our view on the bank's BCA couldchange if the coronavirus credit shock led to a sustained erosion of DZ BANK's solvencystrengths.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios

2.7%

15.1%

0.3%

58.7%53.6%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

DZ BANK AG (BCA: baa2) Median baa2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit strengths

» The bank's solid capitalisation provides protection in the case of adverse economic scenarios.

» The strong market position of the German cooperative banks' network results in profitable cross-selling of the diversified range ofDZ BANK's products.

» Proven intra-sector coherence ensures access to funding and constitutes a backstop against tail scenarios.

Credit challenges

» The depressed economic outlook could weaken the credit quality of DZ BANK's more cyclical exposures, including commercial realestate and shipping.

» Structural pressure on net interest income raises the sensitivity of the bank's results to capital market results.

OutlookThe negative outlook reflects our expectation that the weak operating environment for banks in Germany will elevate the risk to theprofitability and credit quality of Germany's cooperative banking sector, which could negatively affect the current uplift from thesector's affiliate support embedded into DZ Bank's ratings.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Upward pressure on DZ BANK’s ratings could be exerted by (1) a multi-notch upgrade of its BCA, because a single-notch upgradewould likely be offset by lower affiliate support; or (2) an improvement in the cooperative sector’s financial strength, which iscurrently unlikely, but which could result in additional rating uplift for affiliate support. Under our Advanced LGF analysis, the bank'sdeposit and senior unsecured debt ratings already benefit from the highest-possible LGF result, with three notches of rating upliftover the Adjusted BCA.

» An upgrade of DZ BANK’s BCA could be prompted by a reduction in its concentrations in higher-risk assets compared with capital,in combination with a sustainable improvement in its profitability and a further improvement in its absolute and risk-weightedcapital levels. A BCA upgrade is less likely to be driven by an improvement in the bank's liquidity and funding profile, which wouldneed to be pronounced and across both factors.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» A downgrade of DZ BANK’s ratings could arise (1) from a downgrade of its BCA; (2) in case the cooperative sector’s financialstrength deteriorates, as indicated by the negative outlook; or (3) if the bank displays a liability structure with a materially lowervolume of debt designed to absorb losses in bail-in compared with its total banking assets.

» DZ BANK's baa2 BCA incorporates some degree of tolerance against intermittent weak performance. We would considerdowngrading the bank's BCA if substantial unexpected risks were to emerge from its commercial banking activities, or if the group'sloss-absorption capacity were to materially decrease.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

DZ BANK AG (Consolidated Financials) [1]

12-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3

Total Assets (EUR Billion) 545.5 506.7 493.2 493.0 393.0 8.54

Total Assets (USD Billion) 612.3 579.3 592.3 520.0 426.9 9.44

Tangible Common Equity (EUR Billion) 21.8 19.7 18.6 17.9 13.2 13.34

Tangible Common Equity (USD Billion) 24.4 22.5 22.3 18.9 14.4 14.24

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.4 2.95

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 15.1 14.9 14.1 15.1 13.5 14.56

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 18.3 20.8 25.6 25.6 28.3 23.75

Net Interest Margin (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.65

PPI / Average RWA (%) 2.2 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.16

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.35

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 57.6 71.4 59.2 59.6 55.8 60.75

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 58.7 57.0 57.6 58.6 58.2 58.05

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 53.6 52.5 53.3 52.4 54.7 53.35

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 141.6 131.7 138.0 141.9 131.9 137.05

[1]All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2]Basel III - fully loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS. [3]May include rounding differences because of the scaleof reported amounts. [4]Compound annual growth rate (%) based on the periods for the latest accounting regime. [5]Simple average of periods for the latest accounting regime. [6]Simpleaverage of Basel III periods.Sources: Moody's Investors Service and company filings

ProfileDZ BANK AG (DZ BANK) acts as a central bank, a corporate bank and the parent holding company of DZ BANK Group, the second-largest banking group in Germany in terms of total assets as of 31 December 2019. As of the same date, the bank held a 6.7% share ofthe total assets of the German banking system, based on its reported consolidated asset base of €559.4 billion. Since its merger withthe former WGZ BANK AG on 1 August 2016, the bank has been the sole cooperative central institution for Germany's cooperativesector.

DZ BANK's credit profile benefits from its diversified bancassurance franchise, because the bank owns and consolidates several ofthe sector's key financial service providers. These include R+V Versicherungen (R+V), Union Investment Management AG (UMH),Bausparkasse Schwaebisch Hall AG (BSH) and DZ HYP AG (DZ HYP; since 2018, following the merger of Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank and WL BANK AG Westfälische Landschaft Bodenkreditbank), which are domestic market-leading franchises ininsurance, fund management, residential mortgage lending, commercial real estate and public-sector finance, respectively. DZBANK has profit-and-loss transfer agreements in place for some of these institutions. Our credit assessment is based on the bank'sconsolidated financials.

For more information, please refer to the bank's Issuer Profile and our German Banking System Profile .

Weighted Macro Profile of Strong+DZ BANK is focused on the German market, but also incorporates the vast majority of the international activities of the Germancooperative sector. The bank's assigned Strong+ Weighted Macro Profile is derived from the level of the Strong+ Macro Profile ofGermany.

3 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Recent developmentsThe coronavirus will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy. The full extent of the economic downswing will be unclearfor some time; however, G-20 economies will contract in 2020. We presently expect the G-20 advanced economies as a group tocontract by 5.8% in 2020 and the euro area by 6.5%, followed by a gradual recovery in 2021. In Europe, the coronavirus outbreak addsto late-cycle risks for European banks. The recession in 2020 will weigh on banks' asset quality and profitability. We expect fiscal policymeasures, as already announced by a variety of euro-area governments, to mitigate the economic contraction caused by the outbreak.In the current coronavirus-induced recession and its aftermath, capital levels will be a key differentiator of credit profiles among banks.Generally, banks are facing a sharp deterioration in asset quality and reductions in profitability from already low levels, while centralbanks are providing extraordinary levels of liquidity and governments have strong incentives to support banking systems to foster aneventual recovery. Thus, when comparing a bank to its peers, the level of capital with which it entered this recession and its ability toretain capital throughout the next several years take on particular importance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a series of measures to help European Union (EU) economies weather the wideningeffects of the coronavirus pandemic, temporarily increasing banks’ liquidity provisions, as well as lowering regulatory capital andliquidity requirements. As part of these temporary measures, the ECB increased its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROIII) under more favourable terms as well as its financial asset purchase program, while refraining from lowering the ultralow interestrates further. The temporary suspension of buffer requirements for regulatory capital and the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) givesbanks greater flexibility and additional leeway to absorb the economic impacts, such as asset-quality declines. Overall, the packageaims to help the banks continue to finance corporates and small and medium-sized businesses suffering from the effects of thecoronavirus outbreak. We believe that the ECB’s measures will provide a limited relief for banks and their borrowers, and that it willrequire meaningful fiscal policy measures by the European Union and its member states to avert higher default rates in banks’ lendingbooks.

Germany launched a large stimulus package and the government's support is crucial for corporate borrowers in industries immediatelyhurt by the coronavirus outbreak like airlines, tourism, retail and the shipping sector, as well as smaller companies experiencing weakliquidity and high leverage. The scale of the support package is unprecedented and is far larger than the support provided during thefinancial crisis. At the same time, the government made it easier to access its short-work scheme (“Kurzarbeit”) and extended it toa broader pool of workers, which will limit the spike in unemployment and the fall in domestic consumption. The measures, whichare adapted according to the evolution of the economic effects of the pandemic, add to Germany's already expansionary fiscal policystance as well as to automatic stabilizers that support household incomes when unemployment increases.

By late May, DZ BANK had received customer requests for €8.1 billion of guaranteed new loans from both its direct customers and as apass through intermediary for the cooperative sector’s primary banks.

For the first quarter of 2020, the bank reported around €130 million of pre-tax losses, down from a pre-tax profit of €548 million forlast year's first quarter.

For 2020, DZ BANK’s management now expects a significant increase in loan loss provisions from €329 million in 2019, which wasbelow its €400 million to €500 million estimate that would apply within customary economic and credit conditions. Within the weakeconomic context, DZ BANK now expects to achieve a full year pre-tax profit of less than €1 billion, down from its previous guidance ofaround €1.5 billion.

4 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Detailed credit considerationsDZ BANK's solid capitalisation is illustrated by its comfortable buffers over minimum requirementsWe assign an a2 Capital score to DZ BANK, two notches below its initial score. This reflects our expectation that DZ BANK will be ableto maintain its tangible common equity ratio above 14%, or restore it swiftly in the case of temporary setbacks within the current weakeconomic environment. Our assessment also reflects that the bank's regulatory nominal leverage remains relatively low.

DZ BANK's tangible common equity (TCE) ratio increased to 15.1% as of year-end 2019 from 14.9% as of December 2018 due to theissuance of Additional Tier 1 instruments. The bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 13.3% on 31 March 2020 (YE2019:14.4%, YE2018: 13.7%). Upon a recovery of the operating environment, we believe DZ BANK will maintain its policy of moderatedividend payout ratios. Following the ECB's recommendation to banks under its supervision not to pay discretionary dividends for 2019at least until 1 October, DZ BANK postponed the decision on a €322 million dividend payment originally expected for May 2020.

DZ BANK was required to maintain a CET1 ratio of 9.00% in Q1 2020, including a regulatory CET1 Pillar 2 add-on requirement of0.98%, a buffer for other systemic institutions of 1% and a capital conservation buffer of 2.5%. The originally, planned introductionof a 0.25% countercyclical buffer on German exposures was suspended by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin)within the context of a broader temporary reduction of capital requirements in reaction to the economic challenges posed by thecoronavirus pandemic. DZ BANK's total capital Pillar 2 add-on requirement remained unchanged at 1.75%, but may now be fulfilledwith Additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 components of 0.33% and 0.44%, respectively. At year-end 2019, the Pillar 2 add-on requirement hadto be exclusively met with CET1 capital. This capital relief reflects an accelerated introduction of a measure from the latest revision ofthe Capital Requirements Directive (CRD V), which was initially scheduled for 2021.

DZ BANK's regulatory transitional Tier 1 leverage ratio improved to 5.0% as of year-end 2019 (year-end 2018: 4.5%) for the bankinggroup and moderately increased at single entity level to 3.9% from 3.8%. From June 2021 on, DZ BANK will need to maintain at leasta 3% regulatory leverage ratio at both levels. By that date, DZ BANK expects its group-wide leverage ratio to improve by about onepercentage point, because the ratio's calculation will then exclude the currently included promotional funding pass-through and intra-sector claims which DZ BANK incurs mostly in its role as the sector's central institution.

Exhibit 3

DZ BANK clearly exceeds regulatory capital requirementsExhibit 4

DZ BANK's regulatory capital requirements

14.1%14.9% 15.1%

13.7% 13.7%14.4%

13.3%

3.8% 3.9% 4.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020

TCE ratio CET1 ratio (transitional) TCE leverage ratio

TCE = Tangible common equity (Moody's calculation). CET1 = Common Equity Tier 1capital.Sources: Company reports and Moody's Investors Service

7.85%8.84%

9.80%

9.00%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020*

Pillar 1 - CET1 Pillar 2 requirement Capital conservation buffer

Countercyclical buffer O-SII buffer

*DZ BANK's total capital Pillar 2 add-on requirement remained 1.75%, but may now befulfilled with CET1, Additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 components of 0.98%, 0.33% and 0.44%,respectively. At year-end 2019 the Pillar 2 add-on requirement had to be exclusively metwith CET1 capital. This capital relief reflects an accelerated introduction of a measurefrom the latest revision of the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD V), which was initiallyscheduled for 2021.Source: Company reports

5 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

DZ BANK's sound asset quality will benefit from the banking group's lending portfolio breadth in light of the weakeconomic environmentDZ BANK's asset quality is sound, as reflected by the assigned baa2 Asset Risk score, which is three notches below the bank's initialscore. Growing risks to the economic outlook would first affect DZ BANK's cyclical exposures, including its shipping and commercialreal estate lending exposures, as well as corporate lending to cyclical sectors. The downside risks to these sectors, as well as DZ BANK'smaterial investments and participations, are the main drivers for our downward adjustment to the a2 initial score.

In 2019, DZ BANK strongly expanded its retail lending exposures to €70 billion from €57 billion as of year-end 2018. This growth isdriven by the residential mortgage loans of Bausparkasse Schwaebisch Hall AG (BSH, Aa1 negative/Aa1 negative, baa2)1, which added€5 billion in 2019 to arrive at €47 billion of residential mortgage loans outstanding as of year-end 2019. In addition, around €10 billionof DZ HYP's mortgage lending book are secured by single- or two-family homes and apartments. A smaller portion of DZ BANK's retaillending relates to the consumer lending activities of Teambank, which had €9.1 billion of customer loans outstanding by year-end 2019,up 8% from year-end 2018.

Exhibit 5

DZ BANK's loan exposures are well diversified, but an extended downturn would challenge its asset qualityDZ BANK's €198.9 billion of customer loans as of year-end 2019 broken down by lending type

Commercial Real Estate20%

Corporates34%

Industry Conglomerates5%

Public Sector5%

Residential Mortgages29%

Other Retail Loans7%

Each 10% of the group's customer lending exposures represents around 1x DZ BANK's TCE as of year-end 2019Source: Company reports and presentations

DZ BANK's corporate lending exposures (excluding public sector loans) of €118 billion as of year-end 2019 (down from €123 billiona year before) consists to around a third of commercial real estate mortgages underwritten by DZ HYP AG (DZ HYP), foremost inthe sub-segments multi-family housing (€17 billion) and office (€11 billion). Retail and hotel exposures, which we expect to be moresensitive to the immediate impact of the lockdown in reaction to the coronavirus pandemic account for €9 billion and €3 billion,respectively. Within DZ BANK's corporate lending portfolio, small and medium-sized companies (SME) play a relatively small role,representing about 6% of corporate exposures. This reflects the bank's focus on larger borrowers with SMEs foremost served by theprimary banks of the cooperative sector.

Based on a total on balance sheet customer loan book of €186 billion and problem loans of €4.4 billion, DZ BANK's problem loan ratiodeclined to 2.4% as of year-end 2019 from 2.6% as of year-end 2018. Prior to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the negativeoutliers in terms of asset performance have been concentrated in DZ BANK's €7.3 billion ship finance2 exposures as of 31 December2019 (December 2018: €10.0 billion), almost exclusively held by the group's subsidiary DVB Bank S.E. (DVB) and equivalent to roughly35% of DZ BANK's €20.7 billion of CET1 capital, down from 55% as of year-end 2018.

6 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 6

DZ BANK's problem loan ratio has declined over recent years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (left axis) Coverage ratio (right axis)

Problem loan ratios in accordance with our definition.Sources: Company reports and Moody's Investors Service

In addition to lending credit risk, DZ BANK is exposed to market risk as a result of the asset portfolios of its key earnings contributorR+V Versicherungen (its insurance company). In addition, periods of weaker capital markets performance have in recent years oftencoincided with an underperformance of the public sector securities and promissory notes exposures of DZ HYP in lower rated euro areacountries, including the subsidiary's combined €3.8 billion of nominal exposures to public sector obligors in Italy (Baa3 stable), Spain(Baa1 stable) and Portugal (Baa3 positive).

DZ BANK's earnings are sound and diversified, despite a significant dependence on capital market trendsWe assign a ba2 Profitability score to DZ BANK, in line with its initial Profitability score. The score reflects the bank's solid pre-provisionincome generation capacity derived from its broad product range offered by several specialised segment units. While this generallyresults in a broadly diversified operating income, the dip in 2018 results confirmed the unchanged relevance of capital market resultsfor the bank's key earnings contributing segments.

DZ BANK's profitability in 2019 improved from its 2018 level, albeit driven by the strong performance of more volatile capital-marketdriven earnings components. This is reflected by our assigned ba2 Profitability score. This score also takes into account the stabilityand breadth of DZ BANK's earnings. For 2020, DZ BANK indicated at an early stage of the coronavirus outbreak that its pre-taxprofit should rather come out at the low end of its medium-term €1.5 billion to €2 billion target range. In light of the severity of theeconomic slowdown experienced in the first half of 2020, the bank's results will fall short of this range, absent a strong recovery in thesecond half of the year.

In 2019, the bank's pre-tax income increased by 98% year-over-year to €2.7 billion reflecting the positive jaws as operating incomeincreased 23% to €6.9 billion and operating costs remained flat at €4.1 billion. Increased net fee income (+1% to €2.0 billion), highertrading (+66% to €0.5 billion) and insurance business results (251% to €1.2 billion, including about €520 million of one-off gains),primarily stemming form increased client activity as well as sizeable valuation gains on own debt issues and the group's securitiesportfolio, more than offset the margin pressures across the bank's other businesses (net interest income: -4% to €2.7 billion) and thenormalisation of risk costs.

DZ BANK's asset management subsidiary, UMH, and its insurance company, R+V, registered year-over-year pre-tax segment profitincreases of 29.1% and 170.5%, respectively, because of rebounding performance related fees on a higher invested asset base in case ofUMH and gains on investments for R+V. DZ HYP saw a 196.1% increase in pre-tax profits mainly due to a recovery of credit spreads onits €1.7 billion Italian government securities portfolio in 2019.

7 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 7

DZ BANK's earnings split is well diversified

3.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.82.7

1.4 1.6 1.71.9 2.0 2.0

1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9

1.0 2.6

-3.1 -3.2 -3.5 -4.0 -4.0 -4.1

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EU

R b

illion

Net interest Income Net fees and commissions income Trading & other income

Admin. Expenses Risk provisions Extraordinary income and expense

Pre-tax profit

Sources: Company reports, Moody's Financial Metrics and Moody's Investors Service estimates

Sound funding structureTo reflect DZ BANK's sound funding structure, we assign a ba1 Funding Structure score, five notches above the b3 initial score. Ourpositive adjustments capture that DZ BANK is able to source funds from the cooperative sector, the sector's retail clientele and fromdevelopment banks.

DZ BANK strongly benefits from its position within the cash-rich cooperative sector, and the bank has an effective centralised treasuryfunction, which ensures access to funds and adequate structural funding of all subsidiaries.

In 2019, DZ BANK strongly increased the contribution of commercial paper liabilities sourced from institutional investors to its overallfunding mix, resulting in an increase in the contribution of market funds sourced outside the cooperative banking sector to its overallfunding profile. Longer-term secured funding accounted for 15.3% of DZ BANK's €321 billion of total funding as of 31 December 2019(year-end 2015: 13% of €222 billion). As of 31 December 2019, DZ BANK sourced 43% of its short- and medium-term unsecuredfunding from and through the primary banks of the cooperative sector. These banks pass on their deposit overhang as unsecured short-term funding, and acquire medium-term unsecured bonds for their own security portfolios and on behalf of retail clients who are alsoactive off-takers of DZ BANK's structured notes.

Exhibit 8

DZ BANK remains significantly reliant on wholesale funding sources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Equity Other liabilities Trading liabilities Issued securities

Interbank Deposits Market Funds Ratio* (right axis)

*Market funds ratio = Market funds/tangible banking assets.Sources: Company reports and Moody's Investors Service

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Sound liquidityThe a3 Liquid Resources score includes a downward adjustment for the encumbered portion of liquid assets. The assigned score reflectsDZ BANK's large liquid resources and its liquidity coverage ratio, which is significantly above 100%. The bank's liquidity coverage ratio isrepresented by the average liquidity buffers for the last 12 months divided by its average net liquidity outflow. As of 31 December 2019,the ratio stood at 145% (December 2018: 141%).

Liquidity reserves remained high as of year-end 2019, supported by €92 billion (December 2018: €83 billion) of unencumbered assetsrecognised as extremely high or high quality liquid assets for the calculation of the liquidity coverage ratio. The majority of theseliquidity reserves consisted of €50 billion of liquid securities eligible for repo with the ECB, up from €42 billion as of year-end 2018.

DZ BANK's overall counterbalancing capacity is in addition supported by additional issuance leeway under the bank's covered bondissuance programs. Per year-end 2019, DZ BANK had high overcollateralisation ratios under several of the group's covered bondissuance programs, which allow for additional secured issuance capacity, including 98.3% nominal overcollateralisation under its DZBANK Briefe program (cover pool assets as of 31 December 2019: €18.8 billion), DZ HYP's mortgage (€35 billion) and public sector(€16.4 billion) covered bond programs, with 15% and 20% overcollateralisation, respectively.

Exhibit 9

DZ BANK's balance sheet remains highly liquid

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other assets Loans Securities/Investments Interbank Cash Liquid Banking Asset Ratio* (right axis)

*Liquid banking assets ratio = Liquid assets/tangible banking assets.Sources: Company reports and Moody's Investors Service

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerationsIn line with our general view on the banking sector, DZ BANK has a low exposure to environmental risks (see our environmental riskheat map3 for further information). Through its subsidiary DVB, DZ BANK is exposed to the global shipping sector, which is classifiedas “Elevated Risk – Emerging” in our environmental risk heatmap, meaning we expect the credit impact of environmental exposuresto crystallize over the next few years. DVB’s shipping exposure is constantly reduced and – including offshore finance – comprised€6.6 billion of customer loans as of 31 December 2019 (year-end 2018: €9.4 billion). As of 31 December 2019, the group's ship financeexposures accounted for roughly 35% of DZ BANK's €20.7 billion of CET1 capital. Together with the bank’s further exposures to cyclicalindustries, the remaining shipping exposure is factored into our concentration risk adjustment of the asset risk score.

In line with banks globally, DZ BANK’s exposure to social risks is “Moderate”. This includes considerations in relation to the rapid andwidening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, given the substantial implications for public health and safety and deteriorating globaleconomic outlook, creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets. For further information seeour social risk heat map4).

Governance5 is highly relevant for DZ BANK, as it is to all banks. Whilst DZ BANK displays a high integration into the Germancooperative sector and operates as a consolidating group holding company for the sector's real estate, insurance and assetmanagement specialists, DZ BANK has a centralised decision-making process and risk control. DZ BANK shows an appropriate riskmanagement framework relating to its risk appetite. Despite its past involvement as a transaction bank in a tax evasion schemearound dividend payments, we do not have any particular governance concern for the bank, and do not apply any corporate behavior

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adjustment for DZ BANK. Nonetheless, corporate governance remains a key credit consideration given new emerging risks andcontinues to be a subject of our ongoing monitoring.

Support and structural considerationsAffiliate supportDZ BANK's a2 Adjusted BCA benefits from the strong fundamentals of, and our assessment of a very high probability of support from,the German cooperative banking association, Genossenschaftliche FinanzGruppe Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken. DZ BANK'scentral organisation, Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken, provides support to all members through itsinstitutional protection scheme.

As a member of the cooperative group of banks, DZ BANK is highly likely to receive affiliate support in case of need. This supportmaterially reduces the probability of default, because the cooperative group's cross-sector support mechanism aims to stabilise itsmembers by avoiding any form of loss participation by creditors or bail-in. Our affiliate support assumptions result in three notches ofrating uplift from the baa2 BCA, benefiting the bank's debt, deposit and subordinated instrument ratings.

Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysisDZ BANK is subject to European Union's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, which we consider an operational resolution regime.We, therefore, apply our Advanced LGF analysis, where we consider the risks faced by the different debt and deposit classes across theliability structure should the bank enter resolution.

In line with our standard assumptions, we assume residual TCE of 3% and post-failure losses of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25%run-off in junior wholesale deposits and a 5% run-off in preferred deposits.

» For DZ BANK's deposits and senior unsecured debt, rated Aa1 with a negative outlook, our LGF analysis indicates an extremely lowloss given failure, leading to a three-notch uplift from the bank's a2 Adjusted BCA.

» For junior senior unsecured debt issued by DZ BANK, rated A1, our LGF analysis indicates a low loss given failure, leading to a one-notch uplift from the bank's a2 Adjusted BCA.

» For subordinated debt issued by DZ BANK, rated A3, our LGF analysis indicates a high loss given failure, positioning this rating onenotch below the a2 Adjusted BCA.

» The non-cumulative trust preferred securities issued by DZ BANK Capital Funding Trust I (ISIN: DE0009078337) are ratedBaa2(hyb), that is, three notches below the Adjusted BCA, reflecting their non-cumulative coupon skip mechanism linked to abalance-sheet trigger.

» The non-cumulative trust preferred securities issued by DZ BANK Capital Funding Trust II, DZ BANK Capital Funding Trust III andDZ BANK Perpetual Funding Issuer (Jersey) are rated Baa3(hyb), four notches below the Adjusted BCA. This assessment reflects(1) the risks inherent in discretionary interest payments and mandatory non-payment triggers, and (2) the deeply subordinatednature of the securities. In bankruptcy or resolution, they would rank junior to profit participation rights (Genussscheine) andsilent participations (Stille Beteiligungen). A loss at DZ BANK Group would be among the key triggers for the omission of interestpayments.

Government support considerationsWe assume one notch of rating uplift in our senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings for members of the cooperative banking group,reflecting our assumptions of a moderate support probability.

Our government support assumptions, included in DZ BANK's ratings, reflect the size and high systemic relevance, at the domesticlevel, of the group of cooperative banks. This support would probably not be provided to the bank directly, but to its central association,Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken, in the unlikely event that the association cannot provide (or cannotprovide quickly enough) the required support, based on the sector's combined financial strengths.

For junior senior unsecured debt, subordinated debt and hybrid instruments, we believe that the potential for government support islow; therefore, these ratings do not benefit from any government support uplift.

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Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs)CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honour the uncollateralised portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities (CRRliabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honoured. CRRs are distinct from ratingsassigned to senior unsecured debt instruments and from issuer ratings because they reflect that, in a resolution, CRR liabilities mightbenefit from preferential treatment compared with senior unsecured debt. Examples of CRR liabilities include the uncollateralisedportion of payables arising from derivatives transactions and the uncollateralised portion of liabilities under sale and repurchaseagreements.

DZ BANK's CRRs are positioned at Aa1/P-1The CRRs are positioned four notches above the bank's a2 Adjusted BCA, based on (1) the extremely low loss given failure from thehigh volume of instruments that are subordinated to CRR liabilities, reflected in three notches of uplift; and (2) one notch of ratinguplift based on government support, in line with our support assumptions on deposits and senior unsecured debt.

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentCR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails, and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default, and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

DZ BANK's CR Assessment is positioned at Aa1(cr)/P-1(cr)The bank's Aa1(cr) CR Assessment is positioned four notches above the a2 Adjusted BCA, three notches of which are based on thebuffer against default provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by more subordinated instruments,primarily senior unsecured debt. To determine the CR Assessment, we focus purely on subordination, without taking the volume of theinstrument class into account.

Methodology and scorecardRating methodologyThe principal methodology we used in rating DZ BANK was Bank Methodology , published in November 2019.

About Moody's Bank ScorecardOur scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgement. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgement is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

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Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 10

DZ BANK AG

Macro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong + 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

InitialScore

ExpectedTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 2.7% a2 ←→ baa2 Sector concentration Single name

concentrationCapitalTangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets(Basel III - transitional phase-in)

15.1% aa3 ←→ a2 Nominal leverage Expected trend

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.3% ba2 ←→ ba2 Return on assets Earnings quality

Combined Solvency Score a3 baa2LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 58.7% b3 ←→ ba1 Market

funding qualityExtent of marketfunding reliance

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 53.6% aa2 ←→ a3 Asset encumbrance Expected trend

Combined Liquidity Score baa3 baa2Financial Profile baa2Qualitative Adjustments Adjustment

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint AaaBCA Scorecard-indicated Outcome - Range baa1 - baa3Assigned BCA baa2Affiliate Support notching -Adjusted BCA a2

Balance Sheet is not applicable.

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De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt ClassInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

AdditionalNotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Rating - - - - - - - 3 0 aa2Counterparty Risk Assessment - - - - - - - 3 0 aa2 (cr)Deposits - - - - - - - 3 0 aa2Senior unsecured bank debt - - - - - - - 3 0 aa2Junior senior unsecured bank debt - - - - - - - 1 0 a1Dated subordinated bank debt - - - - - - - -1 0 a3

Instrument Class Loss GivenFailure notching

Additionalnotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Rating 3 0 aa2 1 Aa1 Aa1Counterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 aa2 (cr) 1 Aa1(cr)Deposits 3 0 aa2 1 Aa1 Aa1Senior unsecured bank debt 3 0 aa2 1 Aa1 Aa1Junior senior unsecured bank debt 1 0 a1 0 A1 A1Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 a3 0 A3 A3[1]Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information.Source: Moody’s Investors Service

Ratings

Exhibit 11

Category Moody's RatingDZ BANK AG

Outlook NegativeCounterparty Risk Rating Aa1/P-1Bank Deposits Aa1/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment a2Counterparty Risk Assessment Aa1(cr)/P-1(cr)Issuer Rating Aa1Senior Unsecured Aa1Junior Senior Unsecured A1Junior Senior Unsecured MTN -Dom Curr (P)A1Subordinate A3Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-1Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-1

DZ BANK AG, NEW YORK BRANCH

Commercial Paper P-1BAUSPARKASSE SCHWAEBISCH HALL AG

Outlook NegativeCounterparty Risk Rating Aa1/P-1Bank Deposits Aa1/P-1Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment a2Counterparty Risk Assessment Aa1(cr)/P-1(cr)Issuer Rating Aa1ST Issuer Rating P-1

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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Endnotes1 The ratings shown are BSH's deposit rating and outlook, the bank's issuer rating and outlook and its BCA.

2 Ship finance includes exposures separately reported by DVB as offshore exposures.

3 Environmental risks can be defined as environmental hazards encompassing the impacts of air pollution, soil/water pollution, water shortages and naturaland man-made hazards (physical risks). Additionally, regulatory or policy risks, such as the impact of carbon regulations or other regulatory restrictions,including the related transition risks such as policy, legal, technology and market shifts, that could impair the evaluation of assets are important factors.Certain banks could face a higher risk from concentrated lending to individual sectors or operations exposed to the aforementioned risks.

4 Social risk considerations represent a broad spectrum, including customer relations, human capital, demographic and social trends, health and safety, andresponsible production. The most relevant social risks for banks arise from the way they interact with their customers. Social risks are particularly high inthe area of data security and customer privacy, which are partly mitigated by sizeable technology investments and banks’ long track record of handlingsensitive client data. Fines and reputational damage because of product mis-selling or other types of misconduct are further social risks. Social trendsare also relevant in a number of areas, such as shifting customer preferences towards digital banking services, which increased information technologycosts; ageing population concerns in several countries, which affects demand for financial services; or socially driven policy agendas that translate intoregulations that affect banks’ revenue bases.

5 Corporate governance is a well-established key driver for banks and related risks are typically included in our evaluation of the banks' financial profile.Further factors like specific corporate behaviour, key person risk, insider and related-party risk, strategy and management risk factors and dividend policymay be captured in individual adjustments to the BCA, if deemed applicable. Corporate governance weaknesses can lead to a deterioration in a company’scredit quality, while governance strengths can benefit its credit profile. When credit quality deteriorates due to poor governance, such as break-down incontrols resulting in financial misconduct, it can take a long time to recover. Governance risks are also largely internal rather than externally driven.

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CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

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16 15 July 2020 DZ BANK AG: Update to credit analysis