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E-COMMERCE AS A TOOL FOR DEVELOPMENT : ANALYTICAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
ARUN JACOB
CONTENTS
• Context
• Defining e-commerce
• Analysing digital trade : challenges and approaches
• Regional trends in digital trade: overview
• PTAs in the region and digital trade
• Emerging policy issues
• Implications for sustainable development
CONTEXT
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Per
100 inh
abitant
s
Key ICT Indicators
Mobile subscription -Asia-Pacific
Mobile subscription-World
Mobile broadband -AsiaPacific
Mobile broadband- World
Internet users -Asia Pacific
Internet users -World
Fixed broadbandsubscription-Asia pacific
Fixed broadbandsubscription-World
Source : ITU
300
16000
2000 2013
Global E-commerce Market
Billions (USD)
Source : UNCTAD (2015)
DEFINING E-COMMERCE
WTO (1998)
“electronic commerce' is understood to mean the production, distribution, marketing, sale or
delivery of goods and services by electronic means”
UNTCAD Information Economy Report 2015
“purchases and sales conducted over computer networks…can involve physical goods as
well as intangible (digital) products and services that can be delivered digitally”
OECD (2013)
“the sale or purchase of goods or services, conducted over computer networks .. ., but the
payment and the ultimate delivery of the goods or services do not have to be conducted
online”
TYPES OF E-COMMERCE
Business to
Business (B2B)
-15 trillion US$
(2013)
-Highest market
share (90%)
Business to
Consumers (B2C)
-1.2 trillion US$
(2013)
-fastest growth
Business to
Governments (B2G)
-Public e-
procurement
Consumers to
Consumers (C2C)
-modern day
classified ads
Egs. E-bay, Taobao
ANALYTICAL ISSUES
• Lack of an official commonly agreed definition
• Limited official statistics
• Highlights the overall data limitations of international trade in services
• Need to depend on proxy variables
• Reliance on data provided by big private firms or industry associations
• Difficulty with cross-country comparisons
E-COMMERCE PERFORMANCE INDICES
• Most of the available e-commerce
performance indices exclude trade
data
• Focus on ICT, logistical and financial
infrastructure access data
QUANTIFYING DIGITAL TRADEExample Analytical strategy used in
APTIR 2016 forthcoming
Digital infrastructure goods Computers, network devices,
and mobile phones
• Trade in IT goods
Digital infrastructure service Basic and value-added
telecommunications services,
and computer and related
services.
• Share of IT infrastructure
services embedded in
exports (TiVa)
• International trade in
services Digitizable products Software, books, music, movies,
and games
Electronically enabled
services
Insurance, customer care
Classification source : Markle Foundation (2005)
-
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
ITA Extension (effective after2016)
Parts and accessories of ITequipment
Data storage media and softwareprovided on physical media
Instruments and apparatus
Seminconductor manufacturingequipment
Semiconductors
Telecommunication equipment
Computers
EXPORTS OF DIGITAL-INFRASTRUCTURE GOODS
• Dominance of exports from
China and East Asian
economies in the Asia-
Pacific region.
• AP account for more than
64% of the world exports
on the original ITA product
list and 57.5% of
products covered by
the extension of ITA.
WORLD EXPORTS OF DIGITAL-INFRASTRUCTURE GOODS
Source: APTIR 2016 forthcoming
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Printed materials
Sound Media
Software
Games
Movies
TRENDS IN DIGITIZABLEPRODUCTS
• 0.3% of world
merchandise trade in
2014
• Asia-Pacific economies
account for 30% of
world exports
• Significant
underestimation of trade
WORLD EXPORTS OF DIGITIZABLE GOODS
Source: APTIR 2016 forthcoming
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
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Asia-Pacific
CHANGE IN THE SHARE OF DIGITAL CONTENT IN EXPORTS BY SECTOR , 1995 TO 2011
• Asia-pacific increase in share
of digital content in exports
was faster than the world
average in most industries.
• Globally, import share of
digital infrastructure services
in total exports increased
from 14% in 1995 to 22% in
2011.
• For Asia-Pacific exporters,
the import share is higher
than the world average (23%
in1995 to 25% in 2011)
Source: APTIR 2016 forthcoming
SHARE OF DIGITAL CONTENT IN EXPORTS & IMPORTS
TRENDS IN TRADE IN DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
• Intraregional digital trade opportunity is growing, but major markets for digital-
infrastructure services remain outside the region
• From 1995 to 2011, intraregional imports of digital-infrastructure services grew faster than
the imports from non-regional partners and domestic sourcing
• China has caught up with USA as an important user of telecommunication services to
facilitate its export activities
• Links between country’s competitiveness in digital-infrastructure services and export
competitiveness ?
• Need for open trade environment
PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND PROVISIONS FOR DIGITAL TRADE
• Out of 155 PTAs analysed 37
PTAs recognized some aspects
of digital trade/e-commerce
• Since 2010, about 30 % of
PTAs initiated (and currently
negotiated ) have special
provisions for e-commerce
• 1/3 has a chapter on e-
commerce
• recognition of importance of e-
commerce; call for greater
collaboration; sharing of best
practices; and to work towards
removal of barriers in cross
border digital trade
Source: ESCAP calculation based on APTIAD
Note: * includes PTAs currently under negotitation
EMERGING THEMES IN DIGITAL TRADE POLICIES
• Open trade and investment rules
• Localization rules, ‘de-minimis’ rules
• Complementary national strategies
• Data openness
• Cyber laws, privacy laws, consumer protection laws,
• hard and soft infrastructure to enable digital trade
• New areas of international cooperation
IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
• Some evidence that e-commerce has reduced spatial inequality in some parts of
world
• The risk of ‘digital divide’ transforming into a development divide
• Need for further research and continuous monitoring on the impacts on existing
structures of production and trade
• Impact on environment
• Large data centers use up energy equivalent of small US towns
THANK YOU
Arun Jacob (PhD)
Trade Policy and Analysis Section
Trade, Investment and Innovation Division
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
Email : [email protected]