E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Climate Actions · E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Climate Actions Fd Plil Biif #3Federal Policy Briefing #3 Russell Senate Office Building 253 September

E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Climate ActionsClimate Actions

F d l P li B i fi #3Federal Policy Briefing #3Russell Senate Office Building 253

September 1, 2009

The Center for Climate Strategies1899 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036

www.climatestrategies.us, (202) 540-9121

C t f Cli t St t i

2

Center for Climate Strategies

Nonpartisan Non Advocacy Nonpartisan, Non Advocacy, 501c3, 30+ team members in US, Canada and Mexico

Projects with 40+ states, 4 j ,regions, over 1,500+ stakeholders

Facilitation, technical support, training and capacity building training and capacity building, information and education

Policy options, design, measurements, instruments, CCS Assisted States, , ,programs, integration, goals

Energy, industry, transportation, waste, agriculture, forestry

,2004-2009

September 1, 2009, ©CCS, 2009 www.climatestrategies.us

3

Overview of Sector Based Overview of Sector Based Climate ActionsSlides 4 - 12


Wh i Effi i S I t t?

4

Why is Efficiency So Important?

L T L k I D i i U dLong Term Lock In Decisions Underway

Major Opportunities Available

Major Benefits Available

Key to Overcoming Market Barriers y O g

Strong Public Support


Th “B ilt” E i t

5

The “Built” Environment

1 Transportation & Land Use 1. Transportation & Land Use Actions (TLU)

Location and Design: buildings and facilities, communities transportation communities, transportation systems and service infrastructure

2. Residential, Commercial, , ,Industrial Actions (RCI)

Design and Operation: buildings, facilities, manufacturing, service i f t t infrastructure


T t t U d W M k

6

Treatment Under Waxman-Markey

S t TitlSeparate TitleFederal programs

Standards

Incentives

Significant state-federal partnerships

VMT reduction plans

EE codes and standards

F diFunding

Integration with Cap & Trade


St t Cli t A ti Pl

7

State Climate Action Plans

31 climate action plans 31 climate action plans completed or in progress

Cover 2/3 of U.S. economy and populationand population

Cover ½ of US GHG emissions

Cover all sectors, tools, levels of government

Include cost effectivenessInclude cost effectiveness


C h i Cli t Pl

8

Comprehensive Climate Plans

All GHG’sAll GHG s

Sources and Sinks

All Economic SectorsAll Economic Sectors

All Implementation Mechanisms (price, non-price)price)

Local, State, Federal Levels

Short and Long Term ActionsShort and Long Term Actions

Co-benefits


N ti l C t /S i B S t

9

National Costs/Savings By Sector

$100

$125

Marginal Cost/Savings Curves of US by Sector, 2020(Center for Climate Strategies, 2008)

TLU ES

$25

$50

$75

$100

emov

ed

TLU ESRCI AFW

-$50

-$25

$0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

$/To

n G

HG

Re

“Bang for the Buck”-$125

-$100

-$75

Percentage Reduction of 2020 All-Sector Baseline GHG Emissions


(Over 900 Proposed Actions)

Percentage Reduction of 2020 All Sector Baseline GHG Emissions

S t B d Cli t A ti

10

Sector Based Climate Actions

9,000

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Us with Sector Breakdowns(Center for Climate Strategies Analysis, 2009)

7 500

8,000

8,500

2e RCI

ES

Total U.S. GHG Reductions:41% Below 2020 BAU10% Below 1990 Levels by 2020

6,500

7,000

7,500

MM

tCO

2 RCI

TLU

AF

5,000

5,500

6,000 AFW


2005 2010 2015 2020

E i I t f EE i U S

11

Economic Importance of EE in U.S.

$ per Ton Total Potential US 2020 % National GHG

Plan Reductions MMTCO2e$ per Ton

GHG Removed

Total below BAU

2020

E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Conservation (RCI) 29% 1035 -$13/ton 12%

Clean and Renewable Energy (ES) 29% 1020 $6/ton 12%gy ( )Transportation and Land Use Efficiency (TLU)

16% 575 $13/ton 6%

Agriculture and Agriculture and Forestry Conservation, Waste Management (AFW)

26% 933 $8/ton 11%


Total/Average 100% 3563 $3/ton 41%

SGA 2005 GHG S h t

12

SGA 2005 GHG Snapshot

Waste

El t i it I d t i l

Fossil Fuel Industry

1%

Agriculture6%

Waste Management

3%

Electricity Consumption

Based37%

Industrial Process

4%

Residential Fuel Use

2%

Transportation 28%

2%

Commercial Fuel Use

2%

Industrial Fuel Use17%


2%17%

Draft Preliminary Results

13

Transportation and Land Transportation and Land Use ImprovementsSlides 14 - 22


GHG F t U d t

14

GHG Forecast Update

1200

2007 vs. 2009 GHG Emissions, 5 Southern States

600

800

1000

G R

emov

ed

200

400

600

$/To

n G

HG

Prior Forecast (5-state Total)

Updated Forecast (5-state Total)

0


Draft Preliminary Results

GHG I t f CAFE & I ti

15

GHG Impacts of CAFE & Incentives

2,400

O2e

)

US Transport Fuel GHGs 2007 vs. 2009

2,000

2,200

mis

sion

s (M

MCO

1,400

1,600

1,800

Fue

l Cyc

le E

m

EISA 2007 CAFE

Obama 2009 CAFE

1,000

1,200

,

2005 2010 2015 2020

US

Full

Obama 2009 CAFE +Incentives


2005 2010 2015 2020

Eff t f N CAFE U d t

16

Effects of New CAFE Updates

40

New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency

New LDV MPG with Obama

30

35

MPG

with Obama 2009 CAFÉ

New LDV MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE

25

M CAFE

Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 2009 CAFE

15

20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE


V hi l Mil T l d G th

17

Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth

4,000

4,500

US Total VMT (AEO 2008)

2,500

3,000

3,500

T (billions)

Heavy Duty Trucks

Medium Duty Trucks

1 000

1,500

2,000

Ann

ual V

M

Medium Duty Trucks

Light Trucks

Automobiles

0

500

1,000

2005 2010 2015 2020


T t F l U G th

18

Transport Fuel Use Growth

30

35

U.S. Fuel Consumption (AEO 2008)

Other

20

25

30

lion

Btus

Other

MarineBunker FuelEthanol (E85)

10

15

Qua

drill

Jet Fuel

Diesel

0

5

2005 2010 2015 2020

Gasoline

005 0 0 0 5 0 0


AZ CO NM Cli t Pl TLU

19

AZ, CO, NM Climate Plans - TLU


Southwest Climate Change Network

N ti l TLU C t /S i

20

National TLU Costs/Savings

$125

TLU - Sector Marginal Cost/Savings Curves of US, 2020(Center for Climate Strategies, 2008)

$25

$50

$75

$100

HG

Rem

oved

$75

-$50

-$25

$0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

$/To

n G

H

-$125

-$100

-$75

Percentage Reduction of 2020 TLU BAU GHG Emissions


P d St t TLU A ti

21

Proposed State TLU Actions

Major TLU Actions

Smart Growth/Land Use *

Transit *

Renewable Fuel Standard (biofuels goals)

Vehicle Purchase Incentives, including rebates *

Anti-Idling Technologies and Practices *

Mode Shift from Truck to Rail *

Many Others…


Many Others…

FL TLU P li i J b G th

22

FL TLU Policies, Jobs, Growth

$ Ton

Florida Policy Recommendation2017 GHG

Savings

2025 GHG

Savings

$ NPV Millions

$ Ton GHG

Removed

Develop and Expand Low-GHG Fuels 6 2 12 62 -$15 161 -$142Develop and Expand Low-GHG Fuels 6.2 12.62 -$15,161 -$142

Low Rolling Resistance Tires and Other Add-On Technologies 0.8 1.84 -$1,259 -$90

Improving Transportation System Management 3.94 6.98 -$5,106 -$80

Increasing Freight Movement Efficiencies 0.59 1.1 $21 $2

2010 2015 2020 2025

Cumulative Jobs (Thousands) 2 0 2 6 4 9 7 2Cumulative Jobs (Thousands) 2.0 2.6 4.9 7.2

GSP Growth (Billons) $0.10 $0.19 $0.39

$0.63, NPV

$2.93


23

Residential, Commercial and Industrial Energy and Industrial Energy EfficiencySlides 24 - 34


AZ CO NM Cli t Pl RCI

24

AZ, CO, NM Climate Plans - RCI


Southwest Climate Change Network

N ti l RCI C t /S i

25

National RCI Costs/Savings

$125

RCI (Energy Demand) Marginal Cost/Savings Curves of US, 2020(Center for Climate Strategies, 2008)

$25

$50

$75

$100

mov

ed

-$50

-$25

$0

$25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

$/To

n G

HG

Rem

-$125

-$100

-$75

$

Percentage Reduction of 2020 RCI BAU GHG Emissions


e ce tage educt o o 0 0 C U G G ss o s

P d St t RCI A ti

26

Proposed State RCI Actions

Major RCI Actions

Building Codes

Demand Side Management Programs

High Performance Buildings

Appliance standards

Combined Heat and Power Combined Heat and Power

Many Others…


N th C li N t I G i

27

North Carolina: Net Income GainsNet Income Impact of Residential, Commercial & Industrial Options

($ 2004 millions)

Total NC RCI Plan

($ 2004, millions)

Recommendations


Center for Climate Strategies Analysis, 2008

FL RCI J b E i G th

28

FL RCI Jobs, Economic Growth

# Policy Actions MMTCO2e $NPV $/Ton $GSP Job Gains # Policy Actions MMTCO2e $NPV $/Ton MMTCO2e

$GSP Millions 2020

Job Gains Thousands

Demand-Side Management

ESD-12

Management (DSM)Energy Efficiency Programs, Funds, or Goals for El t i it

201.4 –$8,566 –$43 $2.40 8,660

Electricity

ESD-13a

Energy Efficiency in Existing Residential Buildings

50.4 –$1,432 –$28 $3.08 10,920

g


R d T G

29

Ready To GoRCI Policy Action Federal Programs State Programs

1 Federal Weatherization

1. Arkansas Weatherization Program2. State of Washington Treasurer's Program

COP and LOCAL loan program3. OR's Business Energy Tax Credit (BETC)

Non-Utility Incentives and Funds To Promote Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency:

1 D d Sid

1. Federal Weatherization Program

2. Energy Star Qualified Manufactured Homes

3 DOE' W th i ti

gy ( )program

4. SC Business Tax Credit5. NW Energy Efficiency Alliance6. State Energy Office grants7. MPCA grants and loans8 M TAP1.Demand-Side

Management (DSM)

2.Energy Efficiency Programs for Electricity, Natural Gas Propane and

3. DOE's Weatherization Assistance program Climate Challenge Program

4. Low-Income Home Energy

8. MnTAP9. MnDOC Conservation Improvement Program

(CIP)10.CA Energy Commission PIER program11.CA Solar Electric Incentives programs12 NC Public Benefits Charge programNatural Gas, Propane, and

Fuel Oilgy

Assistance Program (LIHEAP)

12.NC Public Benefits Charge program13.The EmPOWER Maryland goal14.ME PUC's Carbon Free Homes Program15.ME State Energy Programs16.UT Weatherization Assistance Program17.Alaska Weatherization Program (Bonding)g ( g)


C d T d

30

Cap and Trade

Efficiency Role Regional ProgramsEfficiency RoleReduce demand for C&T allowances

Regional Programs

Reduce and control target attainment costs

Remove non-price market barriers

Integrate supply and demand Integrate supply and demand side programs

Recycle auction revenues


EE R d C t f C d T d

31

EE Reduces Cost of Cap and Trade

Doubling of EE levels for power generation cuts C&T allowance price

$

generation cuts C&T allowance price more than in half. (MGA)


St t GHG G th R t

32

State GHG Growth Rates

State GHG Emissions Growth 1990 2020

140%

160%

State GHG Emissions Growth 1990-2020(Center for Climate Strategies Analysis, 2007)

CTME

100%

120%

140%

th R

ate

NCNYFLRIUSAKAZCA

40%

60%

80%

GH

G G

row

t CACOIDMTNMNVORSDUT

0%

20%

1990 2020Year

UTWAWY


Year

C lif i C t /S i

33

California Costs/Savings

$200

Marginal Cost/Savings Curves of California by Sector, 2020(Center for Climate Strategies, 2008)

$50

$100

$150

mov

ed

TLU ESRCI AFW

-$100

-$50

$0

$/To

n G

HG

Re

-$200

-$150

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Percentage Reduction of 2020 All-Sector BAU GHG Emissions


g

A i C t /S i

34

Arizona Costs/Savings

$100

$125

Marginal Cost/Savings Curves of Arizona by Sector, 2020(Center for Climate Strategies, 2008)

TLU ES

$25

$50

$75

$100

Rem

oved

TLU ESRCI AFW

-$75

-$50

-$25

$0

$/To

n G

HG

R

-$125

-$100

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Percentage Reduction of 2020 All-Sector BAU GHG Emissions


35

ConclusionsSlides 36 - 38


“B ild it Ri ht”

36

“Build it Right”


St t d F d l B i

37

State and Federal Barriers

I t t (O tl )Investment (Outlays)

Authority (Legal and Administrative)Administrative)

Market (Split Incentives)

dCapacity (Program and Market)

Awareness (Consumers Awareness (Consumers, Producers)


C h i Cli t P li

38

Comprehensive Climate Policy

Objectives ToolsObjectives

Achieve GHG Targets

Tools

Minimize Costs

Maximize Savings

Federal Caps and Price Signals

Maximize Co-benefits

Maximize Consensus State & Local

National Policies &

Address Governance

Integrate Policy Objectives

Local Measures

Policies & Measures

Integrate Policy Objectives


Documents

E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Climate Actions · E Effi i d Energy Efficiency and Climate Actions Fd Plil Biif #3Federal Policy Briefing #3 Russell Senate Office Building 253 September