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Over 30tables & charts of daily and monthly data on the Indian and global economy and financial markets.
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E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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Contents Page
1. Important Rates to Remember ………… 3
2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators ………… 4
3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators ………… 6
4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators ………… 7
5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates ………… 9
6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates ………… 11
7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets ………… 14
8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows ………… 17
9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets ………… 20
10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators ………… 22
11. Global Economy — Stock Indices ………… 23
12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 24
Special Feature —
RBI's Review of Monetary Policy for Q2 of 2011-12 25
www.ecofin-surge.co.in
Table of Contents
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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2010-11 8.50% Aug-11 4.10%
2009-10 8.00% Aug-10 4.50%
As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10 As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10
Bank rate 6.00% 6.00% CRR 6.00% 6.00%
Repo rate 8.50% 6.00% Base Rate 10.00-10.75% 7.50-8.00%
Reverse repo 7.50% 5.00% CMR 6.90-8.62% 4.75-8.00%
Sep-11 9.72% Oct-11 106.04
Sep-10 8.98% Oct-10 79.32
Spot Price FOB $ per barrel
October
31-Oct-11 48.87 52.0
29-Oct-10 44.54 49.1
RBI Reference rate
*New Series with Base : 2004-05=100.
For Global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html
For explanations visit http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html
HSBC Markit Services PMI
GDP IIP*
Inflation (WPI) Oil Price (World Average)
$/Rupee Rate Purchasing Managers Index
HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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GDP Growth Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2011-12 7.7* 7.7*
2010-11 8.8* 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.5
1 Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing 160,771 2.4 167,091 3.9
2 Mining & Quarrying 26,354 7.4 26,832 1.8
3 Manufacturing 183,488 10.6 196,699 7.2
4 Electricity, Gas & Water
Supply. 23,204 5.5 25,042 7.9
5 Construction93,514 7.7 94,639 1.2
6 Trade, Hotels, Transport
and Communication 299,600 12.1 337,872 12.8
7 Financing, Insurance,
Real Estate & Business
Services. 205,870 9.8 224,574 9.1
8 Community, Social &
Personal Services. 145,485 8.2 153,589 5.6
9 GDP at factor cost
(1 to 8)
10 Private final consumption
expenditure
748,395 9.5 (61.7) 795,683 6.3 (60.5)
11 Government final
consumption expenditure
134,161 6.7 (11.1) 136,935 2.1 (10.4)
12 Gross fixed capital
formation 380,544 11.1 (31.4) 410,533 7.9 (31.2)
13 Changes in stocks 43,788 (3.6) 45,852 (3.5)
14 Valuables 29,240 (2.4) 40,723 (3.1)
15 Exports257,587 9.8 (21.2) 320,247 24.3 (24.3)
16 Less Imports 351,037 15.2 (28.9) 433,824 23.6 (33.0)
17 Discrepancies -30,058 (-2.5) -755 (-0.1)
18 GDP at market price
(10 to 17) 1,212,620 9.1 (100) 1,315,395 8.5 (100)
*Estimates based on the New series of IIP.
1,226,339 7.7 1,138,286 8.8
Growth Indicators
GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices] Q1
2011-12*
Rs.Crore YoY Growth
(Share in
GDP)
(%)
Rs.CroreQ1
2010-11*
YoY Growth
(Share in
GDP)
(%)
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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18 GDP at market price48,69,317 9.1 5,298,129 8.8
19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less
Subsidies ) 375,574 420,287
9 GDP at factor cost
(18-19) 44,93,743 8.0 4,877,842 8.5
20 Net factor income from
abroad -28,889 -43,083
21 Gross national product
at factor cost 44,64,854 7.9 4,834,759 8.3
(9 + 20)
23 Net national
product/National
Income at factor cost
(Less Depreciation) 39,46,540 7.5 4,259,782 7.9
24 Population (in million)1170 1186
25 Per capita income (Rs.)
(23/24) 33731 6.1 35917 6.5
Aug-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 FY2011-12 * FY2010-11*
Production Index
(Index of Industrial
Production) 166.5 157.7 4.1 5.6 8.7
1. Mining 117.6 121.7 -3.4 0.2 7.7
2. Manufacturing 172.6 165.2 4.5 6.0 9.2
3. Electricity 149.4 136.4 9.5 9.5 4.1
*Apr-Aug. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05.
2010-11
(RE)
Rs.Crore
Change (YoY, %)Index 2004-05 =100
YoY Growth
(%)
2009-10 (QE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth
(%)
IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100)
124.5
131.0
125.2
161.3 175.6
176.7
130.8
138.0
149.0
152.9
165.4 166.5
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Mining &Quarrying (141.75)
Manufacturing(755.27)
Electricity (103.16)
General Index(1000.0)
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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Wholesale Price Index
(Base: 2004-05=100)
(Inflation %)
All
Commodities
Primary
ArticlesFood Articles
Non-food
Articles
Crude
PetroleumManufactured
Products
July - 2011 154.0 (9.20) 197.9 192.8 175.8 282.5 137.7
August - 2011 154.9 (9.78) 199.6 193.7 181.1 280.8 138.3
September - 2011 155.8 (9.72) 202.6 196.5 184.4 274.6 138.6
Consumer Price Index
(Inflation %)
All India
General Index
(All Groups
combined)
Base
2010=100
Rural Areas
(All Groups)
Base
2010=100
Urban Areas
(All Groups)
Base
2010=100
Industrial
Workers
Base
2001=100
Rural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
Agricultural
Labourers
Base 1986-
87=100
July - 2011 110.5 (F) 111.7 (F) 108.9 (F) 193 (8.43) 604 (9.03) 604 (9.03)
August - 2011 111.7 (P) 113.1 (P) 109.8 (P) 194 (8.99) 610 (9.71) 610 (9.53)
September - 2011 113.1 (P) 114.6 (P) 111.1 (P) 197(10.06) 614 (9.25) 615 (9.43)
F: Final; P: Provisional
Date Food price Primary articles
6-Aug-11 9.03 11.64
13-Aug-11 9.8 12.40
20-Aug-11 10.05 12.93
27-Aug-11 9.66 13.34
3-Sep-11 9.47 13.04
10-Sep-11 8.84 12.17
17-Sep-11 9.13 11.43
24-Sep-11 9.41 10.84
1-Oct-11 9.32 10.06
8-Oct-11 10.60 11.18
15-Oct-11 11.43 11.75
22-Oct-11 12.21 12.08
Weekly Inflation (WPI)
Inflation
WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores)
March 31 September# October*
2011 2011 2011
M3 6,499,548 6,858,829 6,958,664
% change during the month 2.21 0.35 1.46
% change since March 31 16.49 5.53 7.06
(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)1 Currency with the public 914,197 941,258 952,190
% change during the month 0.95 (0.17) 1.16
% change since March 31 19.03 2.96 4.16
2 Demand deposits with banks 717,660 637,922 646,007
% change during the month 6.51 0.48 1.27
% change since March 31 0.49 (11.11) (9.98)
3 Time deposits with banks 4,863,979 5,277,306 5,359,307
% change during the month 1.84 0.45 1.55
% change since March 31 18.82 8.50 10.18
4 Other deposits with RBI 3,713 2,342 1,160
% change during the month 2.63 (35.14) (50.47)
% change since March 31 (1.90) (36.92) (68.76)
(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 1,982,771 2,137,832 2,181,908
% change during the month 6.67 (0.53) 2.06
% change since March 31 18.85 7.82 10.04
i RBI's credit 396,555 356,660 394,737
% change during the month 32.09 (3.12) 10.68
% change since March 31 80.07 (10.06) (0.46)
ii Other banks' credit 1,586,216 1,781,172 1,787,171
% change during the month 1.77 0.00 0.34
% change since March 31 9.54 12.29 12.67
6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 4,235,406 4,389,661 4,447,127
% change during the month 3.81 1.24 1.31
% change since March 31 21.59 3.64 5.00
i RBI's credit 2,164 1,783 1,878
% change during the month 37.83 (3.05) 5.33
% change since March 31 62.95 (17.61) (13.22)
ii Other banks' credit 4,233,242 4,387,878 4,445,249
% change during the month 3.80 1.24 1.31
% change since March 31 21.58 3.65 5.01
7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking
sector1,393,327 1,549,140 1,598,117
% change during the month (0.24) 3.57 3.16
% change since March 31 9.28 11.18 14.70
8 Government's currency liabilities to the
public12,724 12,959 13,312
% change during the month 4.71 - 2.72
% change since March 31 16.53 1.85 4.62
9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii)1,124,680 1,230,764 1,281,800
% change during the month 13.79 6.21 4.15
% change since March 31 31.10 9.43 13.97
i RBI's NNML 368,274 526,650 578,538
% change during the month (0.87) 18.00 9.85
% change since March 31 18.68 43.00 57.09
ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 756,406 704,114 703,262
% change during the month 22.62 (1.18) (0.12)
% change since March 31 38.13 (6.91) (7.03)
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) # data are of September 23, 2011;(iii) * data are of October 21, 2011.
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
8
COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore)
March September October
2011 2011 2011
Reserve Money : 1,376,881 1,402,145 1,385,212
% change during the month 7.64 2.39 (1.21)
% change since March 31 19.18 1.83 0.61
(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)
1 Currency in circulation 949,659 976,318 1,012,140
% change during the month 0.93 (0.73) 3.67
% change since March 31 18.83 2.81 6.58
2 Banker's deposits with RBI 423,509 423,286 371,661
% change during the month 26.58 10.75 (12.20)
% change since March 31 20.21 (0.05) (12.24)
3 "Other" deposits with RBI 3,713 2,541 1,411
% change during the month 2.63 (29.63) (44.47)
% change since March 31 -1.90 (31.56) (62.00)
(B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)4 Net RBI credit to Government 396,555 406,753 391,984
% change during the month 32.09 10.49 (3.63)
% change since March 31 80.07 2.57 (1.15)
5 RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector
7,324 6,120 5,657
% change during the month 46.60 70.90 (7.57)
% change since March 31 193.31 (16.44) (22.76)
5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 5,159 3,990 3,779
% change during the month 50.58 128.92 (5.29)
% change since March 31 341.32 (22.66) (26.75)
5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 2,165 2,130 1,878
% change during the month 37.90 15.89 (11.83)
% change since March 31 63.03 (1.62) (13.26)
6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 1,328,553 1,491,104 1,530,763
% change during the month -0.35 4.20 2.66
% change since March 31 7.84 12.24 15.22
7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 12,724 13,312 13,312
% change during the month 4.71 2.72 -
% change since March 31 16.53 4.62 4.62
8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 368,274 515,142 556,503
% change during the month -0.87 15.42 8.03
% change since March 31 18.68 39.88 51.11
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Oct-11 Mon 49.18 49.47 49.83 50.09 65.71 66.07 66.54 66.89
4-Oct-11 Tue 49.36 49.61 49.95 50.14 65.09 65.40 65.85 66.10
7-Oct-11 Fri 49.15 49.41 49.73 49.98 66.02 66.35 66.76 67.09
10-Oct-11 Mon 48.94 49.20 49.56 49.88 66.53 66.87 67.33 67.77
11-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.57 49.92 50.20 67.11 67.41 67.86 68.23
12-Oct-11 Wed 48.96 49.20 49.57 49.88 67.44 67.74 68.23 68.65
13-Oct-11 Thu 49.14 49.39 49.76 50.08 67.47 67.80 68.27 68.70
14-Oct-11 Fri 49.04 49.30 49.69 50.04 67.63 67.97 68.47 68.95
18-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.62 49.99 50.34 67.56 67.91 68.41 68.87
19-Oct-11 Wed 49.14 49.41 49.83 50.25 68.03 68.39 68.94 69.51
20-Oct-11 Thu 49.71 50.00 50.38 50.78 68.56 68.95 69.45 69.98
21-Oct-11 Fri 50.12 50.42 50.80 51.16 68.97 69.37 69.87 70.36
24-Oct-11 Mon 49.89 50.19 50.60 51.00 68.99 69.38 69.93 70.47
28-Oct-11 Fri 48.85 49.14 49.55 49.98 69.18 69.57 70.12 70.71
31-Oct-11 Mon 48.71 48.96 49.40 49.86 68.20 68.55 69.13 69.76
Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Oct-11 Mon 76.33 76.75 77.28 77.62 63.98 64.38 64.89 65.32
4-Oct-11 Tue 75.86 76.23 76.73 76.97 64.40 64.75 65.25 65.60
7-Oct-11 Fri 76.25 76.62 77.08 77.43 64.10 64.46 64.93 65.35
10-Oct-11 Mon 76.60 76.98 77.52 77.97 63.82 64.18 64.71 65.22
11-Oct-11 Tue 77.20 77.55 78.06 78.45 64.37 64.69 65.20 65.66
12-Oct-11 Wed 77.17 77.52 78.08 78.52 63.83 64.17 64.72 65.21
13-Oct-11 Thu 77.17 77.54 78.08 78.53 63.85 64.19 64.71 65.23
14-Oct-11 Fri 77.33 77.72 78.28 78.81 63.67 64.04 64.58 65.16
18-Oct-11 Tue 77.64 78.04 78.60 79.09 64.38 64.77 65.31 65.87
19-Oct-11 Wed 77.64 78.06 78.67 79.28 64.00 64.38 64.97 65.62
20-Oct-11 Thu 78.43 78.87 79.42 79.99 64.72 65.12 65.66 66.28
21-Oct-11 Fri 79.48 79.94 80.51 81.03 65.31 65.72 66.27 66.85
24-Oct-11 Mon 79.42 79.88 80.49 81.06 65.55 65.97 66.56 67.19
28-Oct-11 Fri 78.65 79.11 79.72 80.34 64.33 64.72 65.31 65.97
31-Oct-11 Mon 78.00 78.39 79.04 79.71 62.49 62.84 63.45 64.15
Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)
Average of Buying & Selling
Dollar Euro
Pound Yen
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
10
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Oct-11 Mon 7.18 5.35 3.71 6.87 5.18 3.62
4-Oct-11 Tue 6.25 4.91 3.21 5.96 4.79 3.14
7-Oct-11 Fri 6.41 4.76 3.39 6.17 4.56 3.27
10-Oct-11 Mon 6.43 5.12 3.88 6.21 4.90 3.75
11-Oct-11 Tue 5.74 4.79 3.52 5.40 4.55 3.37
12-Oct-11 Wed 6.04 5.08 3.79 5.47 4.80 3.62
13-Oct-11 Thu 6.28 5.14 3.86 5.94 4.83 3.66
14-Oct-11 Fri 6.55 5.45 4.14 6.11 5.03 3.94
18-Oct-11 Tue 6.90 5.33 4.07 6.49 5.16 3.92
19-Oct-11 Wed 6.93 5.74 4.57 6.54 5.46 4.38
20-Oct-11 Thu 7.36 5.50 4.35 7.04 5.29 4.17
21-Oct-11 Fri 7.42 5.54 4.21 7.09 5.29 4.06
24-Oct-11 Mon 7.46 5.82 4.50 7.09 5.56 4.35
28-Oct-11 Fri 7.36 5.86 4.68 6.98 5.58 4.47
31-Oct-11 Mon 6.47 5.79 4.78 6.34 5.57 4.63
Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month
3-Oct-11 Mon 6.89 5.07 3.42 7.77 5.84 4.23
4-Oct-11 Tue 6.01 4.67 2.95 6.72 5.42 3.76
7-Oct-11 Fri 5.98 4.45 3.12 7.05 5.28 3.95
10-Oct-11 Mon 6.12 4.86 3.61 7.08 5.70 4.44
11-Oct-11 Tue 5.58 4.53 3.28 6.23 5.26 4.06
12-Oct-11 Wed 5.58 4.80 3.53 6.68 5.70 4.39
13-Oct-11 Thu 5.91 4.80 3.56 6.58 5.50 4.35
14-Oct-11 Fri 6.22 5.01 3.85 7.30 5.87 4.74
18-Oct-11 Tue 6.44 5.04 3.77 7.42 5.90 4.67
19-Oct-11 Wed 6.61 5.41 4.26 7.36 6.17 5.13
20-Oct-11 Thu 6.94 5.17 4.02 7.77 5.97 4.90
21-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.26 3.93 7.90 6.01 4.77
24-Oct-11 Mon 7.10 5.50 4.17 7.97 6.31 5.07
28-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.55 4.34 7.62 6.23 5.18
31-Oct-11 Mon 6.09 5.41 4.43 7.03 6.29 5.40
Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR)
Annualised Premia
Dollar Euro
Pound Yen
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
11
RBI
LAF
Net Injection(+)/
Absorption(-) of Liquidity
(Rs. Crore)
Repo Rates
(Repo/Reverse
Repo)
Over
night
Rates
(%)
Call
Money* CBLO* Mibor USD Libor
1-Oct-11 0.0 8.25/7.25% 8.04 5.98
3-Oct-11 14660.0 8.20 7.85 8.23 0.144
4-Oct-11 -18905.0 8.09 7.49 8.08 0.143
5-Oct-11 -22625.0 7.79 7.24 7.54 0.143
7-Oct-11 8280.0 7.61 7.87 8.07 0.139
8-Oct-11 0.0 8.29 8.30
10-Oct-11 71815.0 8.28 8.19 8.30 0.139
11-Oct-11 67820.0 8.28 8.21 8.30 0.142
12-Oct-11 57795.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141
13-Oct-11 55725.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141
14-Oct-11 54270.0 8.16 8.04 8.30 0.139
15-Oct-11 0.0 7.78 8.14
17-Oct-11 53635.0 8.27 8.13 8.30 0.143
18-Oct-11 41765.0 8.25 8.21 8.28 0.141
19-Oct-11 56360.0 8.23 8.23 8.29 0.141
20-Oct-11 75885.0 8.23 8.24 8.30 0.142
21-Oct-11 79770.0 8.31 8.38 8.30 0.142
22-Oct-11 0.0 8.31 8.26
24-Oct-11 98285.0 8.32 8.23 8.33 0.142
25-Oct-11 109055.0 8.5/7.5% 8.39 8.19 8.45 0.142
28-Oct-11 58445.0 8.34 8.34 8.58 0.142
29-Oct-11 0.0 8.27 8.23
31-Oct-11 52385.0 8.5/7.5% 8.54 8.44 8.58 0.142
*Weighted.Avg.Rates
Money Market Rates & Liquidity
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
1-O
ct-1
1
3-O
ct-1
1
5-O
ct-1
1
7-O
ct-1
1
9-O
ct-1
1
11
-Oct
-11
13
-Oct
-11
15
-Oct
-11
17
-Oct
-11
19
-Oct
-11
21
-Oct
-11
23
-Oct
-11
25
-Oct
-11
27
-Oct
-11
29
-Oct
-11
31
-Oct
-11
0.135
0.137
0.139
0.141
0.143
0.145Call Money Mibor USD Libor
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
12
Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year
>10 Year &
<=15 Year
>15 Year &
<= 20 Year >20 Year3-Oct-11 8.39 8.51 8.54 8.70 8.72
4-Oct-11 8.33 8.38 8.39 8.33 8.53 8.57 8.72 8.71
5-Oct-11 8.36 8.39 8.50 8.55 8.59 8.74 8.71
7-Oct-11 8.38 8.45 8.35 8.63 8.68 8.80 8.92
10-Oct-11 8.49 8.70 8.74 8.85 8.94
11-Oct-11 8.42 8.44 8.74 8.93 8.92 8.95
12-Oct-11 8.35 8.52 8.82 8.73 8.67 8.89 8.93
13-Oct-11 8.47 8.55 8.49 8.74 8.89 8.87
14-Oct-11 8.44 8.58 8.54 8.78 8.77 8.94 8.95
17-Oct-11 8.45 8.60 8.64 8.82 8.84 8.95 8.95
18-Oct-11 8.73 8.75 8.78 8.93 8.95
19-Oct-11 8.58 8.55 8.75 8.77 8.79 8.93 8.95
20-Oct-11 8.62 8.42 8.67 8.74 8.78 8.81 8.91 8.95
21-Oct-11 8.61 8.39 8.62 8.73 8.82 8.84 8.90 8.96
24-Oct-11 8.60 8.65 8.68 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97
25-Oct-11 8.64 8.65 8.72 8.73 8.79 8.88 8.91
28-Oct-11 8.58 8.67 8.92 8.85 8.94 8.97 8.94
31-Oct-11 8.59 8.62 8.65 8.89 8.87 8.93 8.97 8.97
Month Average 8.48 8.53 8.53 8.82 8.45 8.75 8.73 8.77 8.88 8.90
Maturity/
Type 6 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year
AAAPSU 0.89 1.08 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.63
Bank 0.84 1.05 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.68
NBFC 1.08 1.30 1.32 1.27 1.22 1.09 1.10 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99
Corporate 1.14 1.45 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.82
AA+
PSU 1.01 1.22 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.78
Bank 0.96 1.16 1.06 1.09 1.05 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.83
NBFC 1.23 1.49 1.54 1.64 1.61 1.58 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.39
Corporate 1.29 1.60 1.35 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.10
AA
PSU 1.15 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.08 0.95
Bank 1.09 1.31 1.21 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 0.97
NBFC 1.47 1.69 1.69 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.85 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.57
Corporate 1.49 1.85 1.60 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.35
Bond Yield Spreads over Gilts - October 2011
Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds - October 2011
Debt Market Yields
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
13
Debt Market Yields
Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - October 2011
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Oct
ob
er 2
01
2
Sep
tem
ber
20
13
Mar
ch 2
01
4
Jun
e 2
01
4
July
20
15
Oct
ob
er 2
01
5
Sep
tem
ber
20
16
Sep
tem
ber
20
16
Au
gu
st 2
01
7
Au
gu
st 2
01
8
Au
gu
st 2
01
9
Au
gu
st 2
02
0
July
20
21
Au
gu
st 2
02
1
Au
gu
st 2
02
2
Au
gu
st 2
02
3
Au
gu
st 2
02
4
Au
gu
st 2
02
5
Mar
ch 2
02
6
Sep
tem
ber
20
26
Au
gu
st 2
02
7
Au
gu
st 2
02
8
Au
gu
st 2
02
9
Maturity Year
Wei
gh
ted
Av
era
ge
YT
Ms
Yields of Gsecs Traded in October 2011
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
Apri
l 20
12
May
20
12
Apri
l 20
16
Jan
uar
y 2
01
7
July
20
17
Apri
l 20
18
Apri
l 20
21
Aug
ust
20
22
Sep
tem
ber
202
2
Aug
ust
20
27
Sep
tem
ber
202
7
Feb
ruar
y 2
03
2
July
20
40
Maturity Year
Wei
gh
ted
Av
era
ge
YT
Ms
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
14
BSE Equity Market BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
Month/Year
No of co.s
listed*
No. of scrips
traded
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)* High Low
Month-
Closing P/E P/B Div Yield
Jul-11 5096 3039 59076.0 2813.1 6614745.5 19131.7 18131.86 18197.2 19.60 3.44 1.43
Aug-11 5086 2991 52760.3 2512.4 6058776.3 18440.07 15765.53 16676.75 18.36 3.34 1.51
Sep-11 5092 2922 53625.9 2553.6 5952377.6 17211.8 15801.01 16453.76 18.35 3.36 1.52
NSE Capital Market Segment S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
Month/Year
No of co.s
listed*
No. of scrips
traded
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs.cr)
Market
Capitalisation
(Rs.cr)* High Low
Month-
Closing P/E P/B Div Yield
Jul-11 1606 1600 230003.0 10953.0 6462338.0 5740.40 5453.95 5482.00 20.49 3.47 1.27
Aug-11 1615 1611 235253.0 11203.0 5921684.0 5551.90 4720.00 5001.00 18.29 3.08 1.42
Sep-11 1622 1698 235270.0 11203.0 5820334.0 5169.25 4758.85 4943.25 18.11 2.96 1.51
*End of the Month.
BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades
No. of
contracts
Turnover (Rs.
cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Jul-11 706 19.76 532 15.58 30 0.85 …. … 1268 36.18 1.72
Aug-11 428 10.81 1736 47.02 …. … …. … 2164 57.82 2.75
Sep-11 19303 474.08 7759 241.04 4627 122.25 93 2.21 31782 839.58 39.98
NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment
No. of
contracts
Turnover (Rs.
cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Notional
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of
contracts
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Jul-11 10048859 265640.93 12260020 349890.69 66268437 1867725.5 2800430 81707.72 91377746 2564964.83 122141.18
Aug-11 14585694 347176.6 13366537 333790.92 86141851 2209523.7 2791679 73258.02 116885761 2963749.16 141130.91
Sep-11 14796435 346826.29 13329926 326289.5 83122036 2085730 3057248 76418 114305645 2835263.82 135012.56
Derivatives Turnover
Stock Options Total Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)Month / Year
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options
Equity Market Turnover
Average
Daily
Turnover
(Rs. cr.)Month / Year
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
15
BSE: BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
3-Oct-11 16255.97 16255.97 16056.33 16151.45 17.77 3.25 1.57
4-Oct-11 16081.77 16202.38 15745.43 15864.86 17.45 3.19 1.60
5-Oct-11 15967.72 16044.91 15760.53 15792.41 17.39 3.18 1.60
7-Oct-11 16222.49 16347.48 16148.97 16232.54 17.80 3.26 1.56
10-Oct-11 16270.07 16595.93 16230.77 16557.23 18.18 3.33 1.53
11-Oct-11 16668.15 16774.12 16510.71 16536.47 18.17 3.33 1.53
12-Oct-11 16660.43 16987.06 16608.57 16958.39 18.52 3.39 1.50
13-Oct-11 17048.00 17084.07 16854.03 16883.92 18.39 3.37 1.51
14-Oct-11 16836.83 17112.45 16828.45 17082.69 18.59 3.41 1.50
17-Oct-11 17176.05 17188.55 16928.38 17025.09 18.40 3.39 1.50
18-Oct-11 16817.38 16824.76 16669.04 16748.29 17.91 3.33 1.53
19-Oct-11 16883.36 17106.99 16874.34 17085.34 18.28 3.40 1.50
20-Oct-11 16911.85 16962.06 16744.99 16936.89 18.11 3.38 1.51
21-Oct-11 16975.79 17032.32 16752.21 16785.64 17.97 3.35 1.52
24-Oct-11 17011.06 17104.88 16898.60 16939.28 18.13 3.39 1.50
25-Oct-11 17012.79 17322.13 16900.26 17254.86 18.43 3.44 1.48
26-Oct-11 17336.34 17350.49 17273.52 17288.83 18.48 3.45 1.48
28-Oct-11 17671.86 17908.13 17671.86 17804.80 18.96 3.55 1.44
31-Oct-11 17806.21 17813.11 17668.27 17705.01 18.82 3.52 1.45
Index Movements
15650
15900
16150
16400
16650
16900
17150
17400
17650
3-O
ct-1
1
4-O
ct-1
1
5-O
ct-1
1
7-O
ct-1
1
10-O
ct-1
1
11-O
ct-1
1
12-O
ct-1
1
13-O
ct-1
1
14-O
ct-1
1
17-O
ct-1
1
18-O
ct-1
1
19-O
ct-1
1
20-O
ct-1
1
21-O
ct-1
1
24-O
ct-1
1
25-O
ct-1
1
26-O
ct-1
1
28-O
ct-1
1
31-O
ct-1
1
470047504800485049004950500050505100515052005250530053505400
BSE NSE
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
16
NSE: S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield
3-Oct-11 4874.40 4879.15 4823.90 4849.50 17.51 2.86 1.56
4-Oct-11 4823.50 4869.75 4728.30 4772.15 17.23 2.82 1.59
5-Oct-11 4791.30 4827.80 4741.00 4751.30 17.16 2.81 1.60
7-Oct-11 4883.65 4922.60 4861.20 4888.05 17.65 2.89 1.55
10-Oct-11 4886.85 4991.15 4882.05 4979.60 18.03 2.99 1.51
11-Oct-11 5019.90 5045.10 4964.00 4974.35 18.01 2.98 1.52
12-Oct-11 5011.20 5109.80 4997.65 5099.40 18.43 3.06 1.48
13-Oct-11 5130.80 5136.95 5067.65 5077.85 18.35 3.04 1.49
14-Oct-11 5057.35 5141.40 5056.60 5132.30 18.55 3.08 1.47
17-Oct-11 5156.20 5160.20 5084.50 5118.25 18.50 3.07 1.47
18-Oct-11 5049.45 5057.50 5011.05 5037.50 18.00 3.02 1.50
19-Oct-11 5080.45 5148.05 5075.30 5139.15 18.36 3.08 1.47
20-Oct-11 5086.55 5099.00 5033.95 5091.90 18.14 3.05 1.48
21-Oct-11 5106.60 5120.75 5037.95 5049.95 17.99 3.03 1.49
24-Oct-11 5114.70 5145.65 5084.75 5098.35 18.10 3.06 1.48
25-Oct-11 5137.90 5211.00 5085.55 5191.60 18.39 3.11 1.45
26-Oct-11 5214.95 5219.25 5196.15 5201.80 18.43 3.12 1.45
28-Oct-11 5341.90 5399.70 5322.80 5360.70 19.03 3.21 1.41
31-Oct-11 5358.90 5360.25 5314.60 5326.60 18.90 3.19 1.42
FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures
(Expiry 24-Nov-11)
Open High Low Close Settlement Price No. of contracts Change in OI
3-Oct-11 4869.9 4890.0 4827.7 4871.4 4871.4 8823.0 91700.0
4-Oct-11 4845.0 4897.7 4740.0 4788.5 4788.5 12639.0 1,27,000
5-Oct-11 4802.8 4856.0 4761.0 4782.1 4782.1 11128.0 95450.0
7-Oct-11 4890.3 4951.0 4886.0 4909.9 4909.9 12600.0 -6350.0
10-Oct-11 4914.0 5018.0 4902.5 5007.5 5007.5 12002.0 1,16,100
11-Oct-11 5050.6 5068.0 4985.1 4997.8 4997.8 12909.0 1,75,550
12-Oct-11 5015.6 5135.0 5015.6 5127.5 5127.5 16697.0 2,84,850
13-Oct-11 5150.0 5154.0 5082.1 5089.4 5089.4 16266.0 2,65,350
14-Oct-11 5081.0 5169.0 5077.5 5160.6 5160.6 17295.0 3,02,950
17-Oct-11 5184.0 5184.0 5100.0 5132.5 5132.5 21213.0 1,72,650
18-Oct-11 5075.0 5107.0 5030.1 5060.6 5060.6 48837.0 12,89,600
19-Oct-11 5084.9 5172.9 5084.9 5165.7 5165.7 82834.0 24,39,900
20-Oct-11 5110.2 5126.9 5051.0 5119.7 5119.7 1,03,748 18,81,200
21-Oct-11 5119.0 5149.8 5058.5 5074.1 5074.1 1,75,607 46,55,400
24-Oct-11 5135.6 5176.4 5115.2 5128.7 5128.7 2,01,013 43,56,300
25-Oct-11 5151.5 5249.8 5112.1 5229.2 5229.2 4,15,096 88,91,850
26-Oct-11 5241.2 5257.2 5227.0 5232.1 5232.1 82639.0 6,09,700
28-Oct-11 5376.6 5402.8 5341.3 5385.5 5385.5 3,61,703 10,00,950
31-Oct-11 5369.7 5377.9 5333.7 5347.1 5347.1 2,67,544 2,59,700
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
17
Mutual Funds Investment Trends
Equity
Gross Purchases
(Rs Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
3-Oct-11 387.1 620.1 -233.0
4-Oct-11 558.8 654.0 -95.2
5-Oct-11 528.1 424.4 103.7
7-Oct-11 739.3 555.2 184.1
10-Oct-11 694.2 500.4 193.8
11-Oct-11 777.7 433.2 344.5
12-Oct-11 680.2 500.7 179.5
13-Oct-11 429.9 511.9 -82.0
14-Oct-11 465.9 483.6 -17.8
17-Oct-11 292.8 522.4 -229.6
18-Oct-11 451.0 526.1 -75.1
19-Oct-11 423.4 432.9 -9.4
20-Oct-11 302.6 489.5 -186.9
21-Oct-11 340.2 394.6 -54.4
24-Oct-11 323.0 412.9 -89.9
25-Oct-11 772.5 794.5 -22.0
26-Oct-11 39.2 4.2 35.0
28-Oct-11 688.3 845.3 -157.0
31-Oct-11 413.6 563.6 -150.0
Total for Month 9307.8 9669.5 -361.7
Debt
Gross Purchases
(Rs Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
3-Oct-11 8440.6 3803.1 4637.5
4-Oct-11 5203.1 3350.7 1852.3
5-Oct-11 5556.4 4141.4 1415.0
7-Oct-11 4634.4 1981.7 2652.7
10-Oct-11 2771.1 927.1 1844.0
11-Oct-11 2063.1 2157.8 -94.8
12-Oct-11 2767.2 1672.2 1095.0
13-Oct-11 2479.8 1969.5 510.3
14-Oct-11 1607.9 1599.6 8.3
17-Oct-11 2093.5 1539.6 553.9
18-Oct-11 2345.1 2330.5 14.7
19-Oct-11 2274.7 3054.0 -779.3
20-Oct-11 2360.6 1467.6 893.0
21-Oct-11 2464.8 2158.0 306.8
24-Oct-11 1879.3 2813.3 -934.0
25-Oct-11 3792.6 2619.5 1173.1
26-Oct-11 0.0 53.5 -53.5
28-Oct-11 1714.1 1649.2 64.9
31-Oct-11 3563.4 3859.7 -296.3
Total for Month 58011.7 43148.0 14863.6
Capital Market Flows
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
18
Mutual Funds Asset Position
Mutual Funds Asset Position
April-September 2011 Private Sector
Mutual Funds
Public Sector Mutual
Funds
(of which)
UTI Total
529,998.7 111,938.3 55,732.2 641,937.0
82.56% 17.44% 8.68% 100.00%
in Rs. Crore
Mobilisation of Funds
Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds
Cumulative Position of Net Assets as
on Sep, 30, 2011 (%)
55,279.52,828.6
2,865,442.8 607,350.4
52,450.9
287,785.8 3,472,793.2
4,208.4
ECB Jul-11 Aug-11
Automatic Route 3,677,174,928 2,683,013,998
Approval Route 492,247,312 1,025,219,776
Total ECB (& FCCB) 4,169,422,241 3,708,233,774
Value in USD
FII Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets
3-Oct-11 1466.1 723.9 742.2 151.7
4-Oct-11 562.1 1913.3 -1351.2 -273.4
5-Oct-111154.5 1504.5 -350.0 -71.1
7-Oct-11 1427.5 1565.4 -137.9 -28.0
10-Oct-11 888.0 638.2 249.9 50.9
11-Oct-11 1161.8 507.2 654.6 133.4
12-Oct-11 1646.5 379.0 1267.6 258.5
13-Oct-11 1184.3 963.5 220.7 44.8
14-Oct-11 1076.4 665.1 411.3 83.9
17-Oct-11 647.9 281.4 366.5 74.7
18-Oct-11 246.6 292.9 -46.3 -9.5
19-Oct-11 486.7 1153.1 -666.4 -135.6
20-Oct-11 1472.3 1212.7 259.6 52.8
21-Oct-11 1390.6 533.2 857.4 172.5
24-Oct-11 1137.4 602.9 534.5 106.8
25-Oct-11 719.4 1854.3 -1134.8 -227.5
28-Oct-11 476.8 657.2 -180.4 -36.3
31-Oct-11 359.5 655.4 -295.9 -60.6
Total for Month 17504.4 16103.2 1401.4 287.8
Total for 2011 218231.0 198873.4 19357.7 4290.3
Debt Gross Purchases
(Rs Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
US$ million
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
19
3-Oct-11 6193.8 6504.1 -310.3 -63.4
4-Oct-11 1639.8 2422.2 -782.4 -158.3
5-Oct-11 2080.2 3046.4 -966.1 -196.3
7-Oct-112026.8 2996.1 -969.3 -197.0
10-Oct-11 3563.9 3072.7 491.3 100.0
11-Oct-11 2471.0 2189.8 281.2 57.3
12-Oct-11 2833.1 2650.0 183.1 37.3
13-Oct-11 2674.9 2025.8 649.2 131.8
14-Oct-11 2539.1 1873.3 665.8 135.8
17-Oct-11 1547.0 1630.3 -83.3 -17.0
18-Oct-11 1889.9 1492.4 397.5 81.3
19-Oct-11 1808.3 2057.5 -249.2 -50.7
20-Oct-11 1776.2 1758.8 17.3 3.5
21-Oct-11 1469.3 1900.2 -430.9 -86.7
24-Oct-11 1376.3 1554.5 -178.2 -35.6
25-Oct-11 1760.1 1613.4 146.8 29.4
28-Oct-11 3688.8 3234.4 454.5 91.5
31-Oct-11 5567.7 3207.3 2360.4 483.5
Total for Month 46906.2 45229.2 1677.4 346.5
Total for 2011 527367.3 525981.6 1385.7 397.8
No of Registered FII's :1750 as on 31.10.2011.
Equity Gross Purchases
(Rs Crores)
Gross Sales
(Rs Crores)
Net Investment
US$ million
Net Investment
(Rs Crores)
2360.4
-1000.0
-700.0
-400.0
-100.0
200.0
500.0
800.0
Net Flows (R
s.Cr.)
3-O
ct-
11
10-O
ct-
11
17-O
ct-
11
24-O
ct-
11
31-O
ct-
11
FII Equity MF Equity
Foreign Investment Aug-11 Apr.- Aug. 2011-12 Apr.- Aug. 2010-11
Direct Investment 2,830 20,973 11,390
Portfolio Investment -1,797 2,493 13,327
Total 1,033 23,466 24,717
in USD Million
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
20
Value of Trade on Commodity Exchanges (in Rs.Crore)
During MCX NCDEX All Exchanges YoY % Growth
1st - 15th Oct ’11 567,972.64 63,564.37 657,000.22 32.01
16th - 30th Sep ’11 908,638.47 81,178.13 1,021,739.02 122.69
1st - 15th Sep ’11 859,577.39 67,063.65 953,370.10 118.26
Commodity Futures & Spot Markets
Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot
1-Oct-11 2728.0 1128.0 1164.9 587.4 633.1 3963.0 3875.0 51181.0 51100.0
3-Oct-11 2746.0 2694.0 1131.4 1154.6 591.4 630.0 3869.0 3875.0 52044.0 52000.0
4-Oct-11 2729.0 2692.0 1123.8 1150.4 581.5 629.7 3825.0 3836.0 50223.0 51338.0
5-Oct-11 2720.0 2692.0 1116.6 1145.7 578.0 628.1 3943.0 3725.0 51226.0 49046.0
6-Oct-11 2720.0 1116.6 578.0 4065.0 3920.0 53237.0 52993.0
7-Oct-11 2738.0 2690.0 1119.6 1150.0 581.4 627.6 4062.0 4063.0 51901.0 51958.0
8-Oct-11 2746.0 2688.0 1124.4 1146.7 579.7 625.9 4095.0 4077.0 52297.0 53049.0
10-Oct-11 2747.0 2700.0 1124.4 1143.8 588.3 623.4 4211.0 4077.0 53028.0 52543.0
11-Oct-11 2758.0 2721.0 1123.4 1154.6 589.4 621.2 4264.0 4191.0 53269.0 53545.0
12-Oct-11 2779.0 2723.0 1130.4 1153.0 599.9 624.8 4230.0 4208.0 54162.0 52701.0
13-Oct-11 2785.0 2743.0 1128.4 1150.9 594.7 623.4 4204.0 4214.0 52914.0 52458.0
14-Oct-11 2760.0 2754.0 1122.0 1152.8 604.9 627.5 4281.0 4129.0 53292.0 53371.0
15-Oct-11 2770.0 1117.2 1152.5 608.9 632.8 4299.0 4259.0 53405.0 52873.0
17-Oct-11 2804.0 2757.0 1109.4 1155.0 609.2 639.5 4279.0 4259.0 52769.0 51764.0
18-Oct-11 2779.0 2754.0 1106.4 1152.5 606.2 638.4 4363.0 4223.0 53157.0 52497.0
19-Oct-11 2774.0 2754.0 1093.6 1152.5 613.6 640.5 4357.0 4341.0 52228.0 51504.0
20-Oct-11 2775.0 2756.0 1088.8 1149.6 609.7 637.9 4291.0 4235.0 51701.0 51939.0
21-Oct-11 2787.0 1091.2 1143.4 614.5 638.2 4371.0 4279.0 52784.0 52518.0
22-Oct-11 2777.0 2775.0 1094.6 1143.2 614.0 637.5 4381.0 4376.0 53034.0 52809.0
24-Oct-11 2766.0 2779.0 1091.8 1141.3 615.8 638.3 4546.0 4376.0 53077.0 53018.0
25-Oct-11 2807.0 2785.0 1113.4 1143.6 627.8 640.7 4647.0 4552.0 55064.0 53030.0
26-Oct-11 2785.0 1112.4 625.5 4574.0 4627.0 55711.0
27-Oct-11 2788.0 2785.0 1109.2 630.1 4595.0 4479.0 57859.0 53030.0
28-Oct-11 2781.0 2786.0 1082.4 1157.5 621.9 4535.0 4666.0 57395.0 53030.0
29-Oct-11 2770.0 1092.8 1163.8 623.8 640.6 4541.0 4556.0 57373.0 53030.0
31-Oct-11 2782.0 2759.0 1092.6 1181.3 618.2 634.9 4516.0 4556.0 56427.0 56003.0
*Multi Commodity Exchange of India. ** National Commodity & Derivatives Exchng Ltd. Futures: Nov contract; Silver Dec contract.
Commodity Futures & Spot Prices
(100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (1 Kg.)
Sugar* Wheat** Refined Soya Oil** Energy: Crude Oil* Bullion: Silver*
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
21
Futures Index : MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL Spot Index : MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL
1-Oct 3360.29 2944.47 4445.76 3367.16 3149.98 4443.47
3-Oct 3356.76 2944.36 4499.31 3332.45 3087.26 4449.78
4-Oct 3303.37 2929.12 4396.04 3310.44 3107.53 4453.39
5-Oct 3347.53 2900.63 4452.38 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15
6-Oct 3409.81 2898.37 4541.06 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15
7-Oct 3390.29 2901.23 4496.28 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70
8-Oct 3400.96 2873.93 4517.07 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70
10-Oct 3457.37 2888.37 4583.83 3430.34 3092.70 4517.46
11-Oct 3462.31 2886.18 4563.36 3437.47 3099.98 4531.99
12-Oct 3470.21 2856.39 4624.99 3478.69 3128.39 4561.27
13-Oct 3449.70 2895.40 4567.24 3443.81 3120.19 4543.51
14-Oct 3486.42 2890.75 4606.54 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37
15-Oct 3495.18 2894.91 4615.50 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37
17-Oct 3472.52 2892.24 4573.40 3487.33 3147.63 4560.93
18-Oct 3482.94 2868.16 4568.58 3459.15 3135.37 4494.26
19-Oct 3451.54 2867.23 4487.61 3452.41 2975.68 4499.74
20-Oct 3415.79 2890.98 4418.89 3431.86 3143.82 4421.91
21-Oct 3478.73 2896.12 4530.77 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01
22-Oct 3490.41 2887.11 4554.50 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01
24-Oct 3556.22 2875.03 4630.82 3517.35 3163.84 4539.12
25-Oct 3606.66 2894.77 4683.81 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98
26-Oct 3612.90 2909.23 4750.38 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98
27-Oct 3667.13 2933.73 4852.05 3612.4 3190.69 4614.70
28-Oct 3642.37 2927.95 4817.23 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65
29-Oct 3653.86 2986.02 4817.13 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65
31-Oct 3632.17 2995.59 4768.86 3631.53 3231.11 4726.23
Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Index Close
Commodity Futures & Spot Indices
2750
2950
3150
3350
3550
3750
3950
4150
4350
4550
4750
4950
1-O
ct
3-O
ct
5-O
ct
7-O
ct
9-O
ct
11
-Oct
13
-Oct
15
-Oct
17
-Oct
19
-Oct
21
-Oct
23
-Oct
25
-Oct
27
-Oct
29
-Oct
31
-Oct
MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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Stock
Market
Country
Risk
Indicator/
Country
(per US$)
USA Q3/ 1.6 M09/ 3.2 M09/ 6.9 M09/ 3.9 0.10 2.00 M08/ -711.1 -1.6 AA+/ -ve
China Q3/ 9.1 M09/ 13.8 M09/ 6.1 5.70 3.79 6.36 M09/ 172.9 3201.7 -7.5 AA-/Stable
Hong Kong 5.1 Q2/ 2.0 M09/ 5.8 0.29 1.29 7.77 M09/ -51.3 277.7 -14.3 AAA/Stable
Singapore 5.9 M09 / 12.8 M09/ 5.5 0.43 1.59 1.27 M09/ 46.2 233.6 -10.5 AAA/Stable
Netherlands 1.6 M08/ 1.5 M08/ 8.9 M09/ 2.7 1.58 2.25 0.72 M08/ 59.7 -13.5 AAA/Stable
UK Q3/ 0.5 M08/ -1.0 M09/ 6.3 M09/ 5.2 1.00 2.27 0.63 M08/-158.3 -5.2 AAA/Stable
Germany 2.8 M08/ 7.9 M09/ 5.7 M10/ 2.9 1.58 1.82 0.72 M08/ 197.8 -11.2 AAA/Stable
Belgium 2.3 M07/ 4.0 M08/ 8.0 M10/ 3.6 1.58 4.36 0.72 M08/ 13.1 -17.4 AA+/ -ve
Indonesia 6.5 M08/ 3.9 M10/ 4.4 9.55 3.99 8940.00 M08/ 31.1 110.7 2.4 BB+/+ve
Japan -1.1 M09/ -4.0 M09/ 2.6 M09/ 0.0 0.15 0.99 78.0 M08/ 20.6 -12.2 AA-/ -ve
France 1.7 M08/ 4.4 M08/ 6.3 M09/ 2.2 1.58 3.07 0.72 M08/ -93.1 -15.9 AAA/Stable
Italy 0.8 M08/ 4.7 M08/ 4.5 M10/ 3.4 1.58 6.39 0.72 M08/ -49.3 -22.1 A/ -ve
South Korea Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 6.8 M10/ 3.9 3.57 3.81 1122.00 M10/ 33.2 303.2 -6.4 A/Stable
South Africa 3.0 M08/ 5.6 M09/ 5.7 5.58 7.86 7.97 M09/ 0.4 43.2 -16.8 BBB+/Stable
Brazil 3.1 M08/ 1.8 M09/ 7.3 11.40 11.47 1.75 M10/ 31.1 348.0 -21.3 BBB-/ +ve
Malaysia 4.0 M08/ 3.0 M09/ 3.4 3.25 2.80 3.13 M08/ 36.7 129.1 -4.7 A-/Stable
Thailand 2.6 M08/ 7.0 M10/ 4.2 3.55 3.40 30.8 M09/ 12.5 172.1 -8.5 BBB+/Stable
Turkey 8.8 M08/ 3.8 M10/ 7.7 10.60 9.60 1.77 M08/ -100.9 87.5 -26.7 BB/ +ve
Spain 0.7 M08/ 0.6 M08/ 7.1 M10/ 3.0 1.58 5.45 0.72 M08/ -62.7 -11.6 AA-/-ve
Taiwan Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 1.6 M09/ 1.4 1.15 1.38 30.1 M09/ 8.0 389.2 -18.0 AA-/Stable
Pakistan FY2011/2.
4
M08/ 6.8 M09/ 10.5 11.6 13.00 86.1 M09/ -16.5 15.7 -2.9 B-/Stable
Euro area 1.6 M08/ 5.3 M08/ 5.9 M10/ 3.0 1.58 1.78 0.72 M08/ -33.0 -14.5
India 7.7 M08/ 4.1 M09/ 10.1 8.65 8.97 49.2 M08/ -108.8 280.2 -22.6 BBB-/Stable
Note: Countries have been chosen according to their ranking by share of India's exports in 2010-11. A few countries have been omitted due to insufficient data.
GDP is for Q2 of 2011 unless otherwise mentioned.Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end-Sep 2011. Interest & Exchange rates as on 2nd November 2011.
*% change of the major index in US$ terms, over 31st Dec 2010, as of 2nd November 2011. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P as of 21st Oct 2011.
For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html
Global Economic Indicators
$ bn.
PPI
External Sector
Short-term
rate
Interest rates
GDP
(% change on year ago) (% change on year ago) (%)
CPIIIP
Long- term
Rate
Exchange
Rate Trade Balance FX Reserves
Share Price
Growth*
Sovereign
Rating**
Economic & Financial Market Indicators for India’s Major Trading Partners
Growth Inflation
World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates)
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Trade
GDP Inflation Trade
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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BSE Dollex-
30 (India) DJI (US)
S&P
500(US)
FTSE
100(UK)
NIKKEI
225 (Japan)
HSI
(HongKong)
STI
(Singapore)
IPC
(Mexico)
BOVESPA
(Brazil)
3-Oct-11 2,692.71 10,655.30 1,099.23 5,075.50 8,545.48 16,822.15 2,621.40 33,133.88 50,792.00
4-Oct-11 2,641.19 10,808.71 1,123.95 4,944.40 8,456.12 16,250.27 2,531.02 32,966.23 50,686.00
5-Oct-11 2,620.36 10,939.95 1,144.03 5,102.20 8,382.98 2,528.71 33,000.29 51,014.00
6-Oct-11 11,123.33 1,164.97 5,291.30 8,522.02 17,172.28 2,603.12 33,279.72 52,290.00
7-Oct-11 2,709.54 11,103.12 1,155.46 5,303.40 8,605.62 17,707.01 2,640.30 33,005.09 51,244.00
10-Oct-11 2,775.88 11,433.18 1,194.89 5,399.00 17,711.06 2,668.30 33,547.24 53,273.00
11-Oct-11 2,756.07 11,416.30 1,195.54 5,395.70 8,773.68 18,141.59 2,693.05 33,681.80 53,838.00
12-Oct-11 2,839.07 11,518.85 1,207.25 5,441.80 8,738.90 18,329.46 2,737.75 34,470.36
13-Oct-11 2,818.27 11,478.13 1,203.66 5,403.40 8,823.25 18,757.81 2,733.97 34,584.75 54,601.00
14-Oct-11 2,858.13 11,644.49 1,224.58 5,466.40 8,747.96 18,501.79 2,744.17 34,848.42 55,030.00
17-Oct-11 2,864.70 11,397.00 1,200.86 5,436.70 8,879.60 18,873.99 2,778.97 34,125.70 53,911.00
18-Oct-11 2,788.40 11,577.05 1,225.38 5,410.40 8,741.91 18,076.46 2,724.69 35,011.71 55,032.00
19-Oct-11 2,854.51 11,504.62 1,209.88 5,450.50 8,772.54 18,309.22 2,720.21 34,523.27 54,966.00
20-Oct-11 2,805.44 11,541.78 1,215.39 5,384.70 8,682.15 17,983.10 2,694.01 34,395.50 54,010.00
21-Oct-11 2,755.10 11,808.79 1,238.25 5,488.60 8,678.89 18,025.72 2,712.41 35,020.74 55,255.00
24-Oct-11 2,786.44 11,913.62 1,254.19 5,548.10 8,843.98 18,771.82 2,760.95 35,265.56 56,892.00
25-Oct-11 2,853.79 11,706.62 1,229.05 5,525.50 8,762.31 18,968.20 2,769.94 35,290.15 56,286.00
26-Oct-11 2,866.34 11,869.04 1,242.00 5,553.20 8,748.47 19,066.54 2,769.94 35,818.58 57,144.00
27-Oct-11 12,208.55 1,284.59 5,713.80 8,926.54 19,688.70 2,847.57 36,727.21 59,270.00
28-Oct-11 2,996.05 12,231.11 1,285.09 5,702.20 9,050.47 20,019.24 2,905.72 36,708.64 59,513.00
31-Oct-11 2,983.54 11,955.01 1,253.30 5,544.20 8,988.39 19,864.87 2,855.77 36,159.99 58,338.00
Closing Values
International Stock Index Movements vs BSE Sensex ( Oct-2011, with 3rd Oct=100)
Selected Indian & International Stock Indices
Global Stock Indices
DJI (US) S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100(UK) NIKKEI 225 (Japan)
HSI (HongKong) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil)STI (Singapore)
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Units Descriptor Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11
Index Number Fuel and Non-Fuel 148.36 150.19 159.38 190.31 188.61 182.89
Index Number Non-Fuel 160.34 164.26 173.13 191.51 185.58 171.89
Index Number Food 151.36 156.14 163.18 181.74 175.30 165.48
Index Number Agricultural Raw Materials 122.78 125.67 133.23 151.30 150.20 141.42
Index Number Industrial Inputs 166.47 170.12 181.45 198.64 193.11 175.95
Index Number Metals 198.02 202.24 216.28 232.83 224.10 200.90
Index Number Energy 141.35 141.96 151.34 189.60 190.38 189.32
Index Number Crude Oil 142.57 143.08 153.57 189.50 190.27 188.44
US Dollars per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 76.69 77.79 82.92 110.08 110.88 109.47
" Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 74.35 75.29 80.34 104.96 106.00 103.88
" Crude Oil WTI 76.60 75.26 81.90 86.33 85.62 86.41
USD per '000 Cubic Meters Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 155.32 140.21 123.62 146.13 140.04 128.30
US Dollars per Metric Ton Coal, Australian thermal 96.19 101.66 104.41 127.79 131.30 127.49
US Dollars per Metric Ton Aluminum 2110.44 2171.24 2342.18 2380.99 2293.46 2180.65
" Copper 7302.67 7729.59 8289.76 8998.00 8300.14 7394.19
" Zinc 2047.48 2150.94 2373.56 2199.26 2075.22 1871.42
US Cents per Metric Ton Iron Ore 145.34 140.63 148.48 177.45 177.23 150.43
US cents per Pound Rubber 150.42 160.24 178.02 212.11 206.45 184.21
US cents per Pound Cotton 90.35 104.73 126.55 114.10 116.65 110.61
US Dollars per Metric Ton Palm oil 865.23 884.89 935.22 1047.51 995.18 914.44
US Dollars per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 1140.05 1195.18 1304.14 1666.04 1672.77 1565.19
US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 895.28 929.65 1034.85 1225.21 1218.86 1126.77
US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybeans 379.46 390.23 427.18 501.43 490.91 446.02
US cents per Pound Sugar, European 26.04 25.90 26.37 27.23 26.25 26.21
" Sugar, Free Market 18.60 22.67 26.94 28.88 26.64 26.30
" Sugar, U.S. 31.00 35.22 34.74 39.61 39.28 38.19
US cents per Kg. Tea 315.09 337.18 339.86 358.17 362.27 357.14
US cents per Pound Coffee, Arabicas 212.80 222.10 215.84 273.55 275.58 248.49
US Dollars per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 486.86 519.95 533.13 577.30 615.55 602.00
US Dollars per Metric Ton Wheat, Mexico 246.25 271.69 270.23 327.09 315.92 289.01
*New series with Base 2005=100
Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices
Global Commodity Prices
Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices
Industrial Inputs Price Index includes
Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals
Agricultural Raw Materials Index
includes Timber, Cotton, Wool,
Rubber, and Hides PriceCereals Price Index Wheat, Corn, Rice
& Barley
Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent,
West Texas Intermediate, and the
Dubai FatehMetals Price Index, Copper,
Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc,
Lead, and Uranium Price Indices
E-UpDates November 2011 Surge Research Support
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RBI Adjusts Stance to Reflect Deepening of the Global crisis The RBI formulated its second quarter review of the Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2011-12 against a backdrop of decelerating domestic demand and growth, led by global economic sentiments. A slew of regulatory and developmental policy measures have been announced; these include new products to widen and deepen the financial markets and measures to increase financial inclusion and strengthen the banking system. The most important measure however, was the deregulation of the Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate, which so far remained the so called last bastion of interest rate regulation in India. Though this could lead to both intra- and inter-bank deposit migration in the short-term, it is expected that the move will lead to efficiency in banks’ credit-deposit management and would benefit a large number of small savers in the country. As inflation expectations are likely to be controlled due to previous policy measures as well as the slowdown in both global and domestic growth and demand, RBI has now shifted its stance from hawkish to neutral. This has provided significant breathing space for domestic financial markets and corporates. Going forward, the developments—related to the sovereign debt crises across the globe, in the global financial markets and the actual trajectory of both global and domestic commodity prices—would determine necessary changes in the policy stance. The highlights of the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 is presented here:
Global Economic Conditions
Global growth prospects for appear to be declining; there have been significant downward revisions in growth projections. Business and consumer confidence have dampened on the back of euro area sovereign debt crisis. Private sector balance sheets are at risk and significant weakness in the banking sector has re-emerged. In its World Economic Outlook of September 2011, the IMF has also significantly lowered its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 and 0.5 percentage points for 2012.
Global commodity prices have softened but have stayed elevated. The current Brent crude oil price is still over 25 per cent higher than its average for 2010-11. The IMF has revised upwards its consumer price inflation forecast for emerging and developing economies. According to the IMF (WEO, September 2011), consumer price inflation is likely to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2010 to 2.6 per cent in 2011 in advanced economies, and from 6.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent in emerging and developing economies.
Indian Economy—Trends and Outlook
Growth — Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend. Agriculture prospects remain encouraging; however, moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. A major downside risk to growth emanates from the global macroeconomic environment. A comparative study of business expectations surveys, conducted by different agencies, indicates stiff moderation in business climate. Both global and domestic factors seem to have weakened the perception about the performance of the economy. The CII and FICCI business confidence indices have shown significant decline over the previous quarter and year too. The 55th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI, showed further decline in Business Expectation Index: The demand conditions of the Indian manufacturing sector continued to moderate as net responses on production, order books and exports declined. The baseline projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards to 7.6 per cent
Inflation—Inflationary pressures are strong and persistent due to structural rigidities, continuing strong demand and the adaptive nature of inflation expectations. Domestic price pressures still remain significant and broad-based. Food inflation is likely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP revisions. An increase in administered petroleum prices and electricity prices could lead to further rise in inflation. The latest round of Inflation Expectation Survey of Households exhibits marginal increase in both perceived and expected inflation till the next quarter. The baseline projection for WPI inflation for March 2012 is kept unchanged at 7 per cent. Elevated inflationary pressures are expected to ease from December 2011, though uncertainties about sudden adverse developments remain.
Aggregate demand — Investment demand is softening as a result of combination of factors including monetary tightening, hindrances to project execution, deteriorating business confidence and slowing global economy. Planned corporate fixed investment in new projects declined significantly since the second half of 2010-11 consequently, the pipeline of investment is likely to shrink, putting growth in 2012-13 at risk. Private consumption is also starting to soften in parts, but it remains robust overall as is evident from corporate sales performance. Sales growth continues to be healthy, but profits are under pressure; based on an analysis of a sample of 2,426 non-financial companies, margins of corporates in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated across sectors compared with their levels in Q4 of 2010-11, while a classification of companies into the use-based segments of the IIP indicated that the intermediate goods segment registered the maximum decline in margins, reflecting the impact of commodity prices.. The additional Government borrowing program can potentially crowd out more productive private sector investment. If the fiscal deficit is higher than the budgeted level it will have additional implications for both growth and inflation.
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External Sector —The Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened in Q1 of 2011-12, despite a surge in exports and higher net invisibles receipts. Going forward, exports could decelerate as global growth slows down. Invisible earnings may also decelerate as slow down in US and euro area could impact software exports. Sharp decline in FII flows in Q2 of 2011-12 has been largely offset by strong FDI flows. However, capital flows are entering an uncertain phase with increased financial stress and worsening global growth prospects. External sector outlook, although stable, warrants close monitoring.
Liquidity & Credit —During Q2 of 2011-12, liquidity conditions, though in deficit mode in line with the policy objective, remained comfortable. Bank credit growth is presently above the indicative trajectory. This has been supplemented by increased resource flows from non-banking sources. Going forward, credit growth is expected to moderate as growth slows. Money supply (M3) growth projection for 2011-12 has been retained at 15.5 per cent and growth of non-food credit at 18 per cent.
Financial Markets—Volatility spillovers impacted domestic currency and equity markets; rupee depreciation and the fall in equity indices in Q2 of 2011-12 were comparable to the patterns in most other emerging markets. Money market rates remained in line with policy signals, while G-sec yields hardened after the announcement of additional market borrowing. During April-July 2011, the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement, however, since August, the rupee depreciated against all four major international currencies, reflecting prevailing global market sentiment led FII-sell-offs. Between March and September 2011, the nominal depreciation of rupee against the US dollar was at 8.7 per cent and the rupee depreciated a further 2.3 per cent between end-September and October 21, 2011. According to the assessment of the June 2011 Financial
Stability Report, The banking sector was resilient, though going forward stress tests pointed to the strains in profitability and asset quality. Under severe stress tests, banks might also face liquidity constraints.
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy has been tightened considerably with an effective 500 bps rate hike cumulatively and a 100 bps increase in CRR in a span of 20 months since February 2010. The effective tightening has been of 500 basis points as liquidity in the system transited from surplus to deficit. This monetary policy response has been calibrated on the basis of India specific growth-inflation dynamics in the broader context of persistent global uncertainty. Monetary transmission has helped raise deposit and lending rates, correct the mismatch between deposit and credit growth and dampen aggregate demand.
Monetary Measures
���� The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been increased by 25 basis points, from 8.25 per cent to
8.5 per cent with immediate effect.
���� As per the new operating procedure, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a 100 basis point spread below
the repo rate, automatically adjusts to 7.5 per cent.
���� The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, gets
recalibrated t0 9.5 per cent.
���� The Bank Rate remains at 6.0 per cent.
���� The cash reserve ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 6 per cent of NDTL of scheduled banks.
Guidance—The expected inflation outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run; notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November (December release), the likelihood of a rate action in the December mid-quarter review is relatively low. If the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be warranted.
Developmental and Regulatory Polices Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate RBI has decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect; banks are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions: First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs.1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within this limit.
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Second, for savings bank deposits over Rs.1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However, there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit. Several up coming developmental and regulatory policy changes have been announced; these include:
Financial Market Products— to issue the final guidelines on the cash settled 5-year and 2-year IRFs, including the final
settlement price by end-December 2011. to make the guidelines on CDS effective by end-November 2011. to issue guidelines on short sale in government securities by end-December 2011.
Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion— To provide enhanced banking services in Tier 2 centres, it is proposed to permit domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) to open branches in Tier 2 centres (with population 50,000
to 99,999 as per Census 2001) without the need to take permission from the Reserve Bank in each case, subject to reporting. As there is a need to increase the maximum permissible limit of individual housing loans that can be granted by the UCBs, as also to increase the maximum repayment period for such loans, it is proposed: to increase the individual housing loan limit from Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 30 lakh for Tier I UCBs and from Rs. 50 lakh to Rs. 70 lakh for Tier II UCBs, subject to extant prudential exposure limits; and to enhance the maximum repayment period of housing loans from the present period of 15
years to 20 years. It was announced in the Annual Monetary Policy Statement that the RBI would adhere to internationally agreed phase-in period (beginning January 1, 2013) for implementation of the Basel III framework; it is proposed to issue the draft guidelines for implementing the Basel III framework by end-December 2011.
Non-Banking Financial Companies— It is proposed to introduce a new category of NBFCs called Non-Banking Financial Company – Micro Finance Institutions (NBFC-MFIs), the regulatory framework of which will be broadly based on the recommendations of the Malegam Committee. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued by end-November 2011. The full report is available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx
Summary by Surge Research Support October 2011
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