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044468

EACH-FOR

Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios

Specific Targeted Project

Scientific support to policies – SSP

Deliverable reference number and title: 2.3.2.1 BB aa nn gg ll aa dd ee ss hh

CCaassee SSttuuddyy RReeppoorrtt

Due date of deliverable: 31.12.2008

Actual submission date: 30.01.2009

Start date of project: 01.01.2007

Duration: 2 years

Organisation name of lead contractor for this deliverable: CEDEM Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme

(2002-2006)

Dissemination Level

PU Public PU

PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission

Services)

RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission

Services)

CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission

Services)

EACH-FOR is a project funded by the European Commission, by SERI (Austria) and by ATLAS

Innoglobe (Hungary)

Project website: www.each-for.eu

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BB aa nn gg ll aa dd ee ss hh CCaassee SSttuuddyy RReeppoorrtt

““TThhee llaanndd ooff mmaadd rriivveerrss””

Alice Poncelet

1. INTRODUCTION1

There is consensus among scientists that South Asia is among the regions most impacted by climate change. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007) defines the following as the main climate change impacts in the region: increased frequency of droughts and floods affecting local production negatively; sea-level rise exposing coasts to increasing risks, including coastal erosion and increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas; and glacier melt in the Himalayas, increasing flooding and rock avalanches. Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Within South Asia, Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country because of its regional connectivity through geo-physical and hydrological features and its livelihood reliance on trade (WEDO et al. 2008).

As a result of the large portion of Bangladesh's population being directly dependent on the environment, Bangladesh was selected as a case study for examination in the context of environmental change and migration.

1 At the start of this report, I wish to draw the reader’s attention to the fact that it is

extremely difficult to collect data and figures in Bangladesh. On the one hand, the existing literature and the institutions proved of little help to gather data on Bangladesh due to the fact that the data changes very quickly and there are no systematic tools to collect it. On the other hand, my own research has led me to question the reliability of the existing figures on migration movements after environmental disasters. Indeed, official figures -as reported by the Government and the newspapers- do not appear to correspond to the reality observed during fieldwork. For instance, after the November 2007 storm, official estimates reported a death toll of 3500 (and 1000 missing people) while my visit in different villages hit by the storm indicates that the death toll is most likely much higher. Similarly, when discussing documented out-migration with the authorities, I was never given official data, for it appears this does not exist or is not sufficiently reliable. With regard to undocumented migration, the situation is even more difficult because it seems that this data changes according to political interests in the country. I wish therefore to stress the fact that the figures that are reported in this study must be considered as vague estimates rather than accurate data.

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Figure 2: Catchment area of the Ganges, Jamuna and Meghna rivers2.

Bangladesh contains seven major and over two hundred minor rivers. These rivers and tributaries define the geography of the country and the way of life of its people. The rivers are the main sources of irrigation, aquatic resources including fisheries and the principal arteries for commercial transportation.. As a result, the communities living along the rivers banks are predominantly dependent on the flood plains for their livelihoods and are more exposed to natural hazards like floods, cyclones and droughts. The vulnerability is worsened by problems like upstream river erosion and climate change (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 2008). Because it is a delta country, most parts of Bangladesh are less than 12 metres above sea level, and it is believed that about 50% of the land would be flooded if the sea level were to rise by a metre (Ali, 1996). Consequently, floods occupy a unique position in the economy and culture of Bangladesh. The population knows how to live with floods, since it has long been a common occurrence. Due to the effects of climate change however, flooding is accelerating, which makes Bangladesh one of the countries that is most severely impacted by potential sea-level rise (figure 3).

2 References; Map 1: Magellan Geographix (1999). Map 2: Haque Sarker M. et al. (2003).

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Figure 3: Model of sea-level rise in Bangladesh. Source: Myers (2001)

This case study aims to demonstrate that the latest wave of rural exodus in Bangladesh was induced either directly or indirectly by climate change. The following questions guided the research: What is the population’s reaction to environmental disasters going to be? When is the population going to migrate? How? Which element is decisive in the migration decision? This case study begins by analyzing the environmental issues of the case study. A sketch is then provided of those individuals who decided to leave their region of origin and of those who have not (yet) taken this decision. In this part, the report reflects on the economic, political and social consequences of this environmentally-induced migration. Additionally,, the study aims to identify the positions and actions undertaken by the Bangladeshi government in reaction to these flows: What are the policies put in place ? Which measures are taken to resettle this population?

1.1. Synthesis of context Bangladesh has an area of only 144,000 square kilometres with a population of about 150 million. This makes it one of the most densely populated countries in the world (1050 inhabitants/square kilometres). Bangladesh is also said to be one of the most environmentally vulnerable nations with respect to climate change. The environmental problems of Bangladesh, such as poor soil, water or air quality, natural disasters (like floods, drought or tropical storms) make it difficult for the people to survive in their area of residence.

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The country is situated in a fertile alluvial plain where rice, tea, jute and other crops are grown. The economy is primarily based on the land, with the majority of the country’s population employed in the agricultural sector. The average land holding is about 0.11 hectares (Mahtab and Karim 1992: 50). About 80 percent of the people live in rural areas and less than 40 percent own cultivable land. One of the main causes of landlessness is riverbank erosion. The impact of riverbank erosion is exacerbated by floods and other natural calamities. The shifting of the river channel causes land erosion (Hossain 1991: 307). Consequently, involuntary migration occurs due to the catastrophic changes in the environment. About 94 upazilas3 of 50 districts face riverbank erosion each year (ACD n.d.). Furthermore, about 135,632 families became homeless due to riverbank erosion on 12 rivers including the 3 major rivers in the last 5 years (ibid.). The main three rivers of the country, the Padma (also called Ganges), Meghna and Jamuna (called Brahmaputra in India), as well as another 16 rivers, are the main locations of riverbank erosion. At the time of the monsoon, it used to be that one third of the territory on average was submerged. Residents had learned to adapt to these climatic issues. Global warming has broken this pattern. On the one hand, the increase in rainfall during the monsoon coupled with the melting of Himalayan glaciers has increased the quantity of water flowing downstream. On the other hand, sea level rise makes the stream flow increasingly difficult. The annual floods thus gradually gain in volume and duration in this overpopulated country. In Bangladesh, every year, a significant number of people are victims of riverbank erosion and floods. The impact of riverbank erosion and of unusual floods on the local economy is great as it diminishes agricultural land, infrastructure and communication systems and thus leads to impoverishment and marginalization. Bangladesh has limited internal resources to help in coping with catastrophic natural hazards (like riverbank erosion and its related consequences). Environmental disasters are creating acute problems of unemployment in rural areas, urban slums and thereby, worsening the socio-economic condition of the displaced people. Most of the displaced people become landless people in the country and that situation pushes them into further poverty (Zaman 2007). 1.2. Brief overview of environmental problems It is often said that Bangladesh is a country “made for natural disasters”. Indeed, the geography and climate have made Bangladesh prone to periodic floods, river

3 Bangladesh consists of a number of administrative areas called divisions (Bibhag), each

named after its respective capital: Barisal, Chittagong, Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi and Sylhet. Each division is split into 64 districts (zila), which are then further sub-divided into upazilas. The upazilas are the lowest level of administrative government in Bangladesh.

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erosion, and cyclones. Heavy rainfall during the monsoon season (May to October) causes large scale floods leading to farmland crop losses and loss of properties and human lives. In addition to flood disasters, riverbank erosion -caused by continuous shifting of channels within the major rivers Jamuna, Ganges and Meghna- is an endemic problem. According to the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) sources, it displaces an estimated 500,000 people annually and creates much distress in the country. Riverbank erosion is considered to be one of the principal contributors to the process of impoverishment and marginalization of rural families due to loss of productive agricultural lands. Bangladesh is often considered as the country that could be most affected by climate change, due to its low elevation (a significant part of its territory is below sea-level) and the melting of the Himalaya glaciers that results in increased floods in deltaic regions. Bangladesh is also affected by sudden disasters, such as cyclone Sidr that recently hit the country. The frequency and also the intensity of floods and cyclones have increased. With two extreme weather disasters, the year 2007 was unique in the disaster history of Bangladesh: widespread flooding occurred in July and August, quickly followed by the category-4 cyclone Sidr in November. The floods alone caused 3,363 casualties, affected 10 million people and reduced crop output by at least 13%. While the flood rehabilitation was underway, the coastal part of the country was hit again by a 240 km/h cyclone, Sidr, that affected 30 districts (out of 64). The lives and livelihoods of 8.7 million people were affected and nearly 1.5 million houses and some 4.1 million trees were damaged (WEDO et al. 2008). As a result, floods and cyclones destroyed the crops and cropland. Salinity of the water increased which, in turn, caused a shortage of fresh water. Moreover, crops, rice, fishes and trees that need fresh water for survival have decreased. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rainfalls and excessive cold, persist even after the main event is over. The lands have lost their fertility and therefore cultivation of crops without the use of fertilizer is no longer possible. 1.2.1. Bank erosion The population living along the river bank has to deal with growing erosion. The extreme poverty and landlessness pushed a significant part of the Bangladeshi population to settle on fluvial islands that periodically emerge. These emerging lands are generally known as chars in Bangladesh (also called “moving islands”). In Bangladesh more than five million people inhabit the islands of the three major rivers. Consisting of sand and silt, and reshaped by currents during every monsoon, these islands are fertile but precarious. At the peak of the rainy season, it sometimes only takes a few days for heavy rains to wash away a char of several hectares (Abrar and Azad 2004). The melting of the Himalaya glaciers and the increased intensity of floods in the deltaic region also exacerbate land erosion along the banks upstream. The

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increased quantity of water hits the river banks with greater intensity and destroys housing and the land under cultivation. Peasants living on chars fear the consequences of erosion. As people from chars like to say “He who goes to bed at night as a strong landowner can wake up at dawn as a landless peasant.” If chars disappear, other islands emerge or re-emerge. What has been observed recently is that, while the Chars phenomenon has existed for decades, its frequency is now increasing. 1.2.2. Cyclones and tidal surges, sea level rise and salinity Over 5 million Bangladeshis live in areas highly vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges4. Roughly 55% of the coastal population lives within 100 km of the 710 km-long coastal belt of Bangladesh. The majority of those living in this area are low-income agricultural workers; 70% of whom are landless and relatively asset-poor (WEDO et al. 2008). The country faced 48 major cyclones between 1584 and 2007. In November 1970, between 300,000 to 500,000 people died, and 400,000 houses and 3,500 schools were damaged. During a storm in May 1991, about 140,000 people died, and damage and displacement caused an estimated loss of US$2.4 billion (WEDO et al. 2008). By most estimates, the intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase. Mirza (1992) estimated that the frequency of cyclones rose from 0.51/year in 1877-1964 to 1.12/year during 1965-1980. The IPCC projected intense and more frequent tropical cyclone activity with extreme high sea level, excluding tsunamis (2007). Sea-level rise will lead to a potential loss of 15,668 km2 land, which is expected to affect 11% of the population or 5.5 million people. If the sea level rise goes up by one meter, the implications will include a 20.7% land loss, affecting 14.8 million people. The direct and indirect consequences of sea level rise include saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwater systems, drainage congestion, decreased water logging potential and devastating effects on mangroves. About 2.8 million hectares of coastal soil already suffers from salinity due to heavy withdrawal of surface water and groundwater irrigation, and intrusion of seawater. Here is how Zaman sums up this situation:

Erosion, inundations and population displacement is a regular on-going phenomenon in Bangladesh; more than 150 upazilas in some 40 districts in the country are affected or liable to bank erosion. It is estimated that about 5% of the total floodplain of Bangladesh are directly affected by erosion. In other words, about 2400 km of the bank-line experiences major erosion in a typical year. There are few riverine areas in the world that have such unstable river

4 But the number is certainly higher, as the recent category IV cyclone, Sidr, has hit more

inland, and even in the capital city Dhaka. This is considered a recent phenomenon.

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courses. As a result, destruction by the river channel migration renders an estimated half a million people landless and homeless each year in the floodplain areas, which consists of one of the most densely settled rural habitats in the world. The changes in river courses, therefore, generate a process of involuntary migration. The erosion victims lose their ownership rights, and land thus eroded legally becomes property of the state without any compensation and assistance for rehabilitation. As result, the displaced people turn into “floating population” in their local areas and many moves to cities and settle in slums (Zaman 2007)

2. METHODS 2.1. Justification of the selection Between February and March 2008, a researcher from the Center for Ethnic and Migration Studies (CEDEM) of the University of Liège , in partnership with the International Organization for Migration (IOM)5 office in Bangladesh, conducted field research examining the influence of environmental change (principally flooding and riverbank erosion) on migration in different places of Bangladesh. These places were selected for various reasons. Indeed, the existing literature, recent events and a series of exploratory interviews all pointed out to these places as the most heavily hit by environmental disasters thus far and as those that will suffer most in the future. 2.2. Discussion of methods In total 15 expert interviews6 were carried out in the capital, Dhaka (principally) but also in Gaibandha, Satkhira and Khulna with government officials, representatives from international organisations, academics and NGO representatives working on migration, environment, development, social welfare or disaster relief issues. Research was also conducted directly with migrants and non-migrants from the South-West and from the North-West and people living in the slums of Dhaka. During fieldwork, 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted and 30 persons responded to a questionnaire. The selected persons had been affected by environmental problems (be it riverbank erosion, floods or cyclones). The limited size of the surveyed population (to be explained by budgetary and time constrains) reduces the capacity to draw generalizations from fieldwork. I accordingly gave a similar weight to interviews and questionnaires. It must be noted that the sample is not representative in quantitative terms. These interviews and questionnaires nonetheless provide a good overview of the motivations and strategies of the population when it comes to deciding whether

5 Ms Samantha Sushismita and Mr Adnan Sirajee

6 See annex for a full list.

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to migrate or not. Indeed, the combination of these two research techniques sheds light onto the causes, the motivations and the consequences of their choices, as well as on the motivations to choose a particular place to migrate to according one’s place of origin, occupation or family status. 3. FIELD WORK FINDINGS & ANALYSIS 3.1. Expert Interviews Despite some disagreements (see below), the experts interviewed generally shared the same set of opinions. For one, all experts stressed the fact that most Bangladeshi migration today is internal and is predominantly going from rural to urban areas of the country. They also converge in saying that it would be hazardous to attribute these population movements to the consequences of climate change. Because the debate in the scientific community on the consequences of global warming is still going on, most experts I interviewed identified multiple factors (economic, social and environmental but not necessarily related to global warming) as the cause of current migration. These reasons are examined below. 3.1.1. Economic factors Most experts considered economic reasons to be the prime element motivating people to migrate. It is perceived as being the critical point shifting the balance in favour of the decision to migrate. Indeed, when one is no longer capable of addressing his basic needs (because he lost his house, his job…), migrating appears as the necessary decision to take. It is therefore the hope to find better economic opportunities (that will allow one to support his family) that is at the basis of the household migration strategy that consists in moving from the rural area to the city. In addition to the attraction of the city, “push” economic factors are also to be mentioned. For instance, the extreme hot weather prevents the regular yield of crops. Subsequently, the price of food becomes too high for poor people and they often cannot maintain the family. Similarly, Monga in the North (and salinity of water in the South) makes people more vulnerable to poverty. The increased number of floods and cyclone affects the production of crops. The income from agriculture becomes too low to maintain families, which strongly influences the decision to migrate. As we can see, these economic factors are clearly related to environmental reasons even though they are not necessarily expressed as such. 3.1.2. Social factors Social factors are often presented as secondary: people look for a better life and for dignity by making use of a particular network. The place of destination for a

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would-be emigrant thus also depends on the decision of other members of his network (be it of geographic, professional or familial nature). 3.1.3. Environmental factors Environmental factors include factors related to climate change. For all experts I interviewed, environmental factors and climate change induced factors are not directly influencing the decision to migrate. Yet, when interviewing and surveying the target population, it appeared that there is well a direct and indirect link between environmental and climatic disasters on the one hand and economic factors on the other. Indeed, climate change has a tremendous impact on the production means. When the already economically marginalized population loses its production means due to a disaster (such as floods or storms), they are in a difficult position to rebuild their houses and start their economic activity again. This population can therefore hardly recuperate the economic level it had before the next environmental shock hits them. Deprived of their production means, this population -which was already in a difficult economic situation- has thus higher probabilities of suffering from hunger and being hit even harder by poverty and marginalization. The experts’ position on this situation varies according to their area of expertise, the specificity of their work and the kind of contacts they have with migrants and other vulnerable populations. There is accordingly several lines of disagreement. The first concerns the existence of global warming induced consequences (and therefore of climatic displacees) in Bangladesh. The experts agree that the climate has slightly changed in recent years moving from 6 seasons to only 3. Also, floods have intensified and so has the frequency of erosions, droughts, monga7 and storms (for the latter, even though it has not yet been proved that their frequency is influenced by climate change, it has been observed that their frequency has increased in recent years). The second line of debate concerns the responsibility of human beings in environmental issues in Bangladesh. Paradoxically, the population suffers as much from water scarcity (due to its contamination with salt and arsenic) as from

7 Monga is a name given to seasonal food insecurity in ecologically vulnerable and

economically weak parts of north-western Bangladesh, primarily caused by an employment and income deficit before aman2 is harvested. It mainly affects those rural poor, who have an undiversified income that is directly or indirectly based on agriculture. It is not a new phenomenon in rural Bangladesh, but the topic just started to catch public interest in the last years. Pushed by the media, it became part of the political debate between the government and opposition parties and also found its way into Bangladesh’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. For NGOs and other actors in the development process, monga is now an important concern, for which they collect funds and implement programmes. The basic explanation of the monga phenomenon is widely known: employment and income opportunities of the rural poor strongly decrease between transplantation and harvest of paddy. The lack of income reduces their ability to cover nutritional requirements” (Zug, 2006).

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floods. This question is taboo in Bangladesh (especially among official experts) considering its political dimension (e.g. the Indian dam on the Ganges has reduced its flow and its strength when arriving in the Bengal Gulf). With regard to international migration (both documented and undocumented), I was unable to collect a fair amount of reliable data8. It would therefore be very interesting to follow this study with an analysis of the data on Bangladeshi migration in India where most of the undocumented migrants seem to go. The data to be collected in India could help draw a clearer picture of Bangladeshi migrants today. Considering the different experts’ opinion on the causes of migration n Bangladesh, it is important to promote a constructive interdisciplinary dialogue between experts (e.g. to stimulate dialogue between environmental experts and disaster relief experts). This dialogue is all the more necessary if the importance of the phenomena presented above is going to increase in coming years. 3.2 Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with migrant and non-migrants In the case-study of Bangladesh, there is a distinction between issues faced in the north and issues faced in the south. As we have seen above, the moment or the intensity by which the population is hit by a certain type of phenomenon differs according to the geographic locations. The North-Eastern population for instance, has had to develop long-term counter-strategies against mongas, erosion and floods because these are slower phenomena that create problems over long periods of time. In the seacoast regions, due to the sudden character of certain disasters (e.g. storms), decisions are sometimes taken in a hurry. This explains why migration decisions in these regions are much more numerous and more difficult to predict. With regards to interviews carried out with migrants and non-migrants, it is important to note a few critical points concerning methodology. The first concerns language barriers, in that the 3.2.1. Non-Migrant population Issues Interviews were conducted with Bangladeshi national migrants and non-migrants living along theIndian border in the North-West in Chilmari, ,those living on the Chars in the district of Gaibandha on the Jamuna River, and villagers from the districts of Bagherhat, Pirojpur, Khulna and Shatkhira. It appears first necessary to define what is a non-migrant person. In the disaster areas, while I expected to meet with persons who had never left their place of origin, I realized that the majority of the people actually had already migrated

8 See my comment on the reliability of official data at the beginning of the report.

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from another area several years back but had not decided to move again. The people I interviewed were accordingly not “non-migrant” in a strict sense. Yet, I still perceive their strategies as different from those qualified as migrants. Several subcategories co-exist within the non-migrant population:

o People who moved within the village or region following the destruction of their house but who have not yet taken the step to move to the big city.

o People who tried to migrate to India but came back disappointed after they

were robbed or hired in sweatshops.

o People who have assets and incomes like land, cows, etc. and prefer keeping these than going to an insecure place.

o People too poor to have the possibility to migrate but who would do so if

they gathered the money.

o People who are resettled by the government or an NGO

o Women (and children). In regions hit by disasters, the majority of the population is made of women and children for two reasons. First, the household strategy implies that the husband first moves (temporarily or permanently) to find employment (in the big city or in seasonal activities such as fishing or agriculture). Second, men are more exposed to the lethal consequences of disasters due to the nature of their activity in the land or at sea.

THE NORTH As it has been mentioned earlier, we did not interview or survey people who had never moved before. The reason why we classified them as non-migrant is because they have not yet moved outside a limited territory inside their region of origin. For the largest part, their movement has been limited from one char to the other and, in some instances to one of the nearest cities such as Gaibandha. These movement were not considered as proper migration because they were limited and mostly consisted in back and forth movements between chars. Furthermore, in opposition to the people interviewed in Dhaka, this population does not define itself as migrant. All of them know that if floods, erosion, desertification, or the monga continue, they will have to find a long term solution (i.e. migration) that goes further than the adaptation strategies developed thus far. Why then do the people who have already moved so much not decide to leave and migrate once and for all? The patterns of limited and localized migration and adjustments to displacement in the floodplain have been conditioned historically

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by cultural, social, economic and political factors. On the one hand, the floodplain inhabitants view the river as a symbol of fertility and life. On the other hand, the majority of displaced families strongly believe that their lands will re-emerge soon from riverbeds (which do occur periodically). Many poor families also cannot afford to move greater distance because of their economic inability and other uncertainties involved with long-distance migration. Furthermore, char people are a distinctive group. People in most cases do not have title to the land, but enjoy a sense of ownership to the property. The char people, especially those living on old chars, can enjoy the bounty offered by the silted newly emerged char lands. In the upstream of the Brahmaputra River, land is not as fertile as that of the land in the downstream. The battle for land is therefore less. Moreover, the re-emerged char land is most often cultivated by people who do not have entitlement to land or who have a piece of land nearby” (Abrar and Azad 2004). In the charlands, the timing of the decision to move to another place may depend on several factors. One such factor concerns sudden loss of land due to a natural disaster. In a significant number of cases, it is the school, that takes the first decision to move. The families whose children attend these schools then follow it. The idea is thus to maintain the children’s access to education. The rest of the population then follows little by little. The chars population is among the poorest in Bangladesh. This situation has worsened with the increased frequency with which land disappears. In addition, the repeated disappearing and reappearing of this land create conflicts. Many people are forced to move around the region to find employment, but do not have the economic means to migrate. THE SOUTH Similar to the people we interviewed in North Western Bangladesh, few Southern Bangladeshis can say they have never moved. All have had, at some point, to set up adaptation strategies to survive after environmental disasters and their economic consequences. However, these adaptation strategies and these migration decisions are not easily taken. This explains the differences in timing and motivations for such decisions. For this reason, we identify several subcategories among non-migrants in the South:

o People who are still satisfied with the adaptation strategies they have in place.

o These are predominantly people who have managed to find employment

in the shrimp or salt business, or any other kind of activity that survived the disaster. This situation only concerns a minority. Indeed, these activities require little workforce for short periods of time and only in those areas that were not too affected by the disasters despite the floods.

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o People who have engaged in the migration process but do migrate step by step from one place to the next.

o These people come from the very South and from the villages that were

completely devastated. They slowly moved up to Dhaka but prefer to first stop and resettle in a more urban setting close to their home village. In doing so, they settle temporarily several times before they end up in Dhaka (which is not necessarily their final destination).

o People who own certain goods or land and are not (yet) willing to sell it.

This group concerns as much the people living in devastated areas as those who were not so much affected but nonetheless suffer from salt water intrusion and regular floods. The specificity of these people is that they do not wish to migrate. This is because they still have some land to cultivate, a shop or some cattle that they do not want to abandon. They are afraid of migrating because they know that, due to their lack of resources, it will be a risky enterprise.

o People who do not have the money to migrate.

o This category comprises of the people who do not belong to the

aforementioned categories and lack the economic and social resources to migrate. They are too poor and too dependent on others to envisage such decision.

o People who have tried to migrate to India (or elsewhere) but came back

after they were robbed or sent to work in sweatshops9. Different interviews with people who escaped traffickers show that these people fear reliving the experience. They would rather live (or survive) in their home village with their relatives than escape climatic disaster and face unknown dangers in the migration experience.

3.2.2. Migrant Issues To find out how the environment affects a family’s or an individual’s decision to move, we visited different slums in Dhaka. We covered Tejgaon, Kawranbazar, Bangla Motor Uttora, Banani and Mohakhali and Mohammadpur areas of Dhaka city. Some interviews were also conducted with people on their way to migrate to Chittagong. Almost all of these people have been affected by environmental problems. After the Sidr cyclone there was huge damage. Crops, houses, fish and livestock were vastly affected. Houses and roads were destroyed. Many people have migrated in hope of recovering from the sudden loss. The choice of the place of destination depended on the migrants’ place of origin, his economic activity, his

9 See part 4.

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network and the moment at which he decides to move. In this section, we attempt to answer the following questions from the findings of the aforementioned interviews with migrants and non-migrants: Why do people leave? Who are those who migrate? What alternatives do they have? How do they perceive their life in the city? Do they consider coming back? Following these natural disasters, households develop different strategies to expand their means of subsistence: the father might temporarily migrate to urban centres such as the capital Dhaka, but also to closer cities like Khulna or Barisal in order to work and send remittances. Some migrate in a seasonal fashion and move where work can be found, Others migrate with the whole family. Some also opt not to migrate, since the process is complex and resource-consuming. This financial investment might not be affordable for the poorest families. These families try to survive in their home area, where they are able to retain their few possessions and social networks. In Dhaka, several different types of migrants have been identified: long term migrants; temporary migrants (either the man alone, or all of the family); male migrants looking for a location for the rest of his family (generally there are no women migrating alone). Typical scenarios of migration can be summed up as such: During the flooding season, people engage in seasonal migration and move to large urban centres in the hope of finding employment. In the case of forced migration, because of disasters like cyclones, people usually choose temporary migration. In this case, they come back to their original village as soon as they are able to do so. According to people interviewed in this study, life is perceived as more secure at home. Traditionally families live together in villages. According to most migrants interviewed, things that affected the decision to migrate were mainly the unemployment problem, inadequate income, and unavailability of croplands, poor livelihood and living conditions. Environmental degradation mostly made it impossible to earn a decent living. Environmental problems consisted mostly of poor soil condition, poor water quality, drought in summer, frequent natural disasters (like floods storms etc.). These reasons contributed to the poverty of the people and consequently to their decision to migrate. The people who were not able to earn much by farming or were unemployed have moved permanently (especially people who lost their land through river bank erosion). Losing lands to river erosion leads to less crops and unemployment. The increase in the water level as the result of siltation in the river increases the chances of floods. Heavy rainfall creates excess flow of water from hills, which destroys the crops, croplands and houses as well. According to Professor Maudood Elahi, this kind of situation is very common. His study of the Dhaka slums shows that a large share of the migrant population had moved because of

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riverbank erosion and because of floods. Today, this trend seems to have reinforced with around 50% of these migrants proceeding from those areas. In terms of socio-economic explanations of migration, it also appears from fieldwork that immediately after any disaster many people migrate to make up for the loss they have faced. At times the post-disaster environment becomes so polluted that maintaining life in some places is very difficult. Lack of fresh water even insufficient drinking water made life miserable. In addition, various diseases broke out after the flood took place and people could not find any shelter. Many people also migrated to escape from the loans they have taken earlier. Agriculture is the main source of income of indigenous people in these parts. However, the unreliability of harvest made the steady flow of income extremely uncertain. It had been very difficult to maintain the families with the high prices of food and daily products. In the hope of better income many thus moved to India illegally. An alternative to migration has been shrimp cultivation. This is because the production of crops has decreased with the intrusion of saline water into the soil. Shrimp cultivation requires little skills. However, often those who start this business end up incurring huge loss. These two elements explain why this business has resulted in huge numbers of unemployed people. With no other alternative, these people are forced to migrate. Poverty pushes people to migrate. People I have interviewed mostly said that environmental degradation is currently a problem. Some who have already made some temporary movements are now planning to leave because of environmental issues. As many people do not have any job or land on which to grow crops, they move to other parts of the country hoping to earn a better livelihood. Some migrate temporarily others permanently. This clearly has some consequences on family life. Many husbands have left their wives during the night as they were failing to support their families. Some of them may have moved and started a new life in different places unknown to the rest of their families. Mostly these migrants moved to cities like Jossore, Rangamati, Khulna and even to India. As India is the closest country around, many people chose illegal migration to India in the hope of a better life. But migrations have not been easy for most of those who have gone to India illegally. When they tried to come back, many of them were arrested by the police and sent to jail. With regard to the living conditions and the perspective of going back of those who have moved to the city, it must be that there is no unequivocal perspective on this. Usually, it can be said that the people hope to have better jobs encourages them to stay at the new places. Unavailability of work or inadequate land at the original places, on the other hand, force people to move to different areas. Many have moved to different places to make up for the post-disaster

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loss. People think that there is no point in going back to the original homeland, as there are no remaining job opportunities. The government is not implementing any resettlement or rehabilitation plans. Rather it has destroyed a lot of slums because they were considered illegal. In situations like these, people move from one slum to another. Yet, considering that migrants decide to move to Dhaka to have a better, more secure and more stable life, this kind of government action could also encourage many to return to their place of origin. Nonetheless, interviews show that these people are determined not to move back to their original places unless there are possibilities for work or livelihood even though life in the city is seen as unsatisfactory. According to the people interviewed, life is better in the village in terms of respect, security and livelihood (even if at times expenditure are perceived as too high). In Dhaka or any other urban area it is very difficult to pay the house rent and expenditure for the schooling of children. The environment is too polluted to live a healthy life. Shortage of water, high density of houses in a small place made life very difficult for the migrants, and income is not good for the amount of work. If the environmental situation improves, a majority of these migrant people would choose to move back to the hometown. Because they have left their families behind they want to return to their lives with their families in their own areas. Indeed, family bonding is strong among the people of Bangladesh. The migrants leaving because of bank erosion wish to go back in the hope that they will have some lands again with the rising of new chars. However, people who never had owned lands are not very interested in going back, because they believe it may not bring anything better for them. They prefer to stay in Dhaka as long as they can work and have a safe home. In conclusion, it appears that among the people interviewed, those most helpless are the most likely to migrate. Using the most recent example of tropical cyclone Sidr, valuable sources of livelihood such as boats, nets, and even livestock were destroyed. To start up life again, people plan to migrate and after earning some money they might return to their previous homes. Those who were badly affected by the flood include those who have been trafficked. After losing everything they owned, these people could not make any progress using loans. Moving to an uncertain life in the hope of a better livelihood was the only option left for them to try. Lack of work opportunities and lower yield of crops indirectly forced them to migrate. 3.3. Preliminary Comments and Findings: Linkages between environment, consequences and migration Even though this is an exploratory research in that only a small data sample was collected due to time restrictions, the combination of my work with the existing

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literature allows me to draw some preliminary conclusions and to establish categories of individuals and of categories of damages. At a first glance, it appears that environmental degradation is not currently considered to be a major cause for migration in Bangladesh. Migration instead, is considered to be driven by economic or social reasons (with the majority of migrants moving internally and from rural to urban areas). While recognizing that economic and social factors are the clear drivers of migration in Bangladesh, it becomes necessary to determine at what stag environmental disasters become triggers or underlying motivations to migrate. For this reason, many linkages between environment and migration have been examined in this study. In this section, we look at the consequences of environmental and climatic disasters with a focus on migration of the population affected by them. 3.3.1. Job situation After the floods and recent cyclones, families living in coastal regions and along rivers in the South West lost all their possessions, job opportunities and sometimes family members. The job situation is shifting both in places of origin and urban areas. For a majority of people living in affected areas, the environmental degradation has made it impossible to earn a decent living. People are forced to find new work to earn money. It must be mentioned that environmental and climate-change induced disasters lead to important floods, changes in the seasons’ cycle, changes in agricultural work etc. The working conditions have changed dramatically in the affected areas. All of these changes have to be integrated by the population that, in turn, has to develop new adaptation strategies to pursue their economic activity. For this reason, new jobs or new forms of agriculture develop in the affected areas while others disappear as a consequence of environmental and climatic changes. In the North, during the rainy season, the Jamuna river flow greatly increases and hectares of land are washed away while, during the dry season, the same areas are affected by desertification. Even though the rice culture remains predominant, these climatic phenomena render it very difficult to sustain. For this reason, many people turn to fishing, which, in turn, has led to the overexploitation of the Jamuna river. Because of this region’s lack of natural resources, it is difficult to find alternative economic activities that do not imply moving around in the region. In the South, heavy rains combined with the rise of sea level and the decrease of the Ganges level (because of the Indian dam) has led to the following consequence: in the delta, it is no longer the river’s freshwater that pushes out seawater but the contrary. This creates heavy floods inland which are rendered worse during the storm season. Rice yields are thus destroyed by this

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phenomenon and the sustainability of this activity is threatened by the income of salty water. Rice farmers have had to adapt their activities and now some rice cultures have been turned into shrimp cultures (that grow and live in salt water). However shrimp farming causes two major problems. First, shrimps cultivated are too expensive to be locally consumed and are therefore almost entirely exported. The consequence is not only that the Bangladeshi population does not have access to this new production but also that the country is no longer self-sufficient in terms of rice. Bangladesh therefore has to import rice as a result. This stimulates price increases, which, in turn, further marginalizes the weakest share of the Bangladeshi society. Secondly, shrimp cultivation in the South has created huge unemployment. This shift resulted in important job losses, since shrimp cultivation requires less workforce than rice production for the same surface of land. Also, the influx of former agricultural workers increases the workforce and renders fishing increasingly intensive, and thus less profitable. Those who do not have the material or network resources to fish turn to hunting in the Sunderbans mangroves. This activity is hazardous due to the presence of Bengal tigers in the region. Another adaptation strategy in recent years has been to turn to salt cultivation. Lastly, men are pushed out of the region of origin and forced to migrate when no economic activity is within their reach. As a result, the women and children are left behind to take care of the land and/or small business. The diversification of employment caused by environmental and climatic changes in affected areas has also influenced urban areas such as Dhaka where the job market and the economic situation has been modified. Indeed, new migrants, also called “day labourers” (who constitute the most marginalized share of the city’s population) wake up very early each morning to compete for one-day contract jobs that are often very physically demanding (e.g. carrying concrete, breaking bricks, rickshaw puller10…) and badly paid. The socio-economic situation of migrants in the city is particularly precarious. Only a few of them find steady jobs in construction or in the garment industry. 3.3.2. Women and human trafficking One of the effects of migration that we noticed in the villages is the large number of women living alone with their children and without their husband. This often results from a family migration strategy, whereby the males migrate (temporarily, seasonally) to find a job to earn money and to send it to his family and / or to find and create a network in their new place to live. In the south, there are also many women widows whose husbands (fishermen) are among the dead or missing at sea during the last hurricane. Here is how IDS and ActionAid sum up the situation of women on Bangladesh with regard to climate change: 10

Taxi-bike driver.

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Climate change is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of income. But it is women like Chandrika who are suffering the most, simply because they are women, and women are poorer. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor. They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basic rights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. Women are therefore less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt. (…) Poor women in Bangladesh are struggling to protect their lives, homes, assets and livelihoods from weather-related hazards. (Development Studies (IDS) and ActionAid 2007)

These natural disasters induce other coping mechanisms such as human trafficking. The trafficking occurs mostly towards India, but also into neighboring areas. Four types of traffic that can be linked with recent disasters were observed during our fieldwork. The first and most common category concerns women (widows and women living alone) and children. Husbands either died at sea during cyclone Sidr or are away on temporary migration. These women and children are vulnerable to trafficking because of their weak economic situation. Consequently, they become victims of traffickers and end up in prostitution networks or in forced labour. Men are the second category of people being targetted by human traffickers. After the floods, smugglers promised to bring to Northern India groups of about 80 men from devastated villages so that they could find work. These men had invested all their savings in the journey, but ended up in sweatshops at the Indian border (where they were tortured and treated as slaves). Only a minority managed to get out of this situation. Some interviewees also recalled stories of men trying to escape, being arrested at the border and then sent to jail. Thirdly, entire families can be trapped involuntarily by human trafficking networks. Trafficking has existed for many years in Bangladesh, but was reinforced by recent disasters that created situations of heightened vulnerability. Although some anecdotal evidence is available, it is currently difficult to document quantitatively the phenomenon because of the very nature of this activity and of the Indian-Bangladesh conflict. 3.4. Politics and Aid: Government, local NGO’s and international aid 3.4.1. Measures by the Government The role of the government in disaster management, early warning systems and adaptation mechanisms is important. To date, the Government of the People’s

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Republic Bangladesh (GoB) has instituted limited action in dealing with regard to the issue of climate change. One notable initiative has been the creation of a new ministry, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, dealing with the management of natural disasters. This ministry tries to resettle populations in places close to their homes (even though these places remain at risk). However no plan exists to deal with population movements in the slums of increasingly saturated Dhaka. Furthrmore, the GoB has drafted a National Policy on Disaster Management (DM) of Bangladesh, which is a formal recognition by the Government of the need to shift the approach from disaster response to disaster risk reduction. It also gives much emphasis on involvement of community and local governments in implementing DM programmes (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 2008). Nevertheless, according to a review of government action in instances of natural disasters by Zaman, it was observed that:

Bangladesh flood control strategies suggests that solutions to date have been totally monistic –a single-minded preference for mitigating floods by building dams, dikes and embankments. The legacy of “structural” solutions and flood “prevention” has already led to many detrimental environmental effects of such projects. The narrow view of engineering solutions divests itself from the more important socio-cultural, economic, demographic and ecological considerations. To do this, a “holistic” approach to flood and erosion problems is necessary- one that would take into cognizance of the complex interactions of all aspects of how people traditionally have organized, produced, and survived within the physical constraints. Each of these aspects is critical to an understanding of the flood problem from a societal, and not a la grande engineering perspective (Zaman 2007).

The Government is now working to foster development in rural areas. It is creating jobs in those places and is encouraging people to live there. But, to protect the people from natural disasters, technical solutions as well as non-structural solutions must be found. Such solutions may incude: increasing the level of embankment, elevating the houses, making culverts to minimize the damages. Compensation from western countries should also be sought, for it is understood that they are responsible for today’s situation. Question of labor movement should also be examined. As agriculture is being affected, new technologies should be promoted, agricultural supporting industries or small industries in those areas should be created, and jute industry, fish drying, poultry should be encouraged. Furthermore, solutions for the slums are to encourage the people to go back to their homeland. The Social department of the Government is planning to give

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residence living in the slums new land and training. Resettlement programs for migrants however, should include a job. Also, people coming from bank- eroded areas should be able to insure their houses and crops so that they don’t need to wait for foreign help. People’s adaptation and international cooperation in finance and technology should be promoted. Flood zoning and embankment only on areas designated as “safe” should be encouraged. Thus, awareness raising among the population is very important. Currently, local government agencies such as district and upazila administration provide very little support and assistance to erosion displacees compared with flood and coastal cyclones. Immediate relief and rehabilitation programs are almost non-existent. Even though their problems are quite different, victims of erosion are often in the « cluster village programs » under the “landless families” category. 3.4.2. Local NGO’s and associations (civil society) Local NGO’s and associations work in the field with populations most effected by the above mentioned natural hazards. For instance, in the chars, NGO’s organize programs to raise awareness among the local people. They provide information on the reasons and the consequences of environmental disasters, on the consequences of the rise of erosion etc. They also advise people on where to move. In the South, some NGO’s are working on the protection of the sources of fresh water , while others are working to help and resettle victims of human trafficking. In addition to disaster-related actions, these associations also set up educational programs for women to promote their independence. NGO’s in some erosion-prone areas have proven to be very effective in resettling the erosion-displaced families on a more sustainable basis. The presence of these NGOs is crucial, especially considering that they have a close contact with the population all year long. 3.4.3. International aid After major disasters such as storms, international aid is often very visible. After the Sidr storm, for instance, countries such as Saudi Arabia did not hesitate to finance large amount of rice for Bangladeshi households. Large international NGO’s are also investing money in storm shelters in villages at risk. These shelters, while their number is still limited and their distance from some villages is sometimes too far, have proven to be of critical importance (they are said to reduce human losses by a factor of ten).

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These shelters have also influenced migration decisions. Indeed, we observed that people who live in villages equipped with such a shelter are less inclined to migration because they feel safer. Yet, these foreign-built shelters do not always take the cultural specificities of the Bangladeshi population and practical matters in consideration. For example, by omitting to include a room reserved for women, women are not able to access the shelter. Another issue is one concerning anti-storm exercises. During such exercises, the storm alarm rings and all villagers are expected to go to the shelter. Due to the fact that some people have used these exercises to steal from the temporary empty houses, many families have decided to leave the spouse back home to protect it. This will naturally have deadly consequences when a real storm hits the village. 3.4.4. The loans and micro-credit issues One of the first solutions envisaged by populations affected by environmental disasters to start again is to ask a loan to an NGO (usually referred to as somiti in Bengali). As we will see, this solution can however lead to new problems. The NGO’s give loans but this is good only for a moment because the loan is not enough to start a new life or shift to some permanent solution. People who do not have any land of their own cannot make much profit with the loan. Rather that becomes a burden on them, as they have to pay it back with high interest rates. Accordingly, natural disaster or human induced calamities cannot necessarily be resolved by micro credit. Many families, who are chronically poor and who are hit by the seasonal shock, try to prevent food insecurity by using various coping strategies. The most effective strategy to prevent monga and inundations by the individual family is probably to reduce their vulnerability or chronic poverty. If they manage to open new income sources or to increase their income in normal times, they minimize the risk associated with periods of environmental instability. Working opportunities are subject to supply and demand. While the demand for employment is very high during monga, after inundation, the supply is very low. As people are very needy for income, they accept low wages because of the competition with other labourers. In time of crises, people also try to transform some assets into money to cover their daily expenses, such as selling or taking a mortgage on land. Such a strategy strongly reduces their productive capacity for the future. Furthermore, systems of money-lending and advanced sale of labour and harvest are very exploitative. People with few means of livelihood mostly have no other choice, than to accept their lender’s conditions, as they do not have a lot of alternatives to allocate money from other sources. During disasters, many people need to take a loan, but the supply is not able to cover the demand. This makes it possible for the moneylenders to ask for high interest rates.

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These coping strategies bring certain improvement to people’s lives during the crisis period, but they also prolong the time of shortage, since the crisis period is far from finished when harvest starts. People in such instances either have to use much of their money for repaying loans or they do not earn from the yield they produce or the work they are doing (because they were already paid before). An alternative to moneylenders are networks. People are members of various networks, from which they can profit during times of crises. The most important of those is the extended family. If one family from the network suffers exclusively or to a bigger degree from a crisis, they can be supported by their relatives. Relatives may give them food or borrow money without or with low interest. Community support plays a major role to support the weakest segments of the local community as well. Beside their personal network, people can try to access services of NGOs and the government, who frequently offer short term measures during times of food insecurity. The NGOs and the government carry out Food-for-Work or Cash-for-Work programs to build and maintain streets and to raise common or individual grounds for flood protection. If one member of the family receives such an employment for a substantial time span and earns some 50 to 70 taka per day, his family will probably not have to reduce their daily food intake. To conclude this section, it must also be mentioned that people usually do not rely on one a single coping strategy, but try to find various strategies to overcome or to minimize the impact of disaster (Zug, 2006). This quote taken from Nishat’s interview sums up the issue of loans in times of disasters:

The loans do not help populations come out of the poverty trap they are falling into as a result of the environmental problems. It just helps them to survive. Alternative income generation and livelihood approach would be helpful to control these environmental migrants. We should pay attention to the slums and give sanitation facilities, health security, and job security. Global responsibilities should be promoted. We should change the relief systems and start the rehabilitation.

4. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH As we saw above, flood and erosion disasters in Bangladesh are a complex phenomenon in the current context of Bangladesh. There is a lack of consensus between experts about the real consequences of global warming, which helps to explaing the interplays between natural, socio-political and economic dynamics that link systemic vulnerability and disaster responses.

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Based on my observations, I argue that to have a good vision of future scenarios in Bangladesh more research and scientific dialogue on the natural, social, political, economic and ecological processes will be required. Although Bangladesh has always been confronted to the phenomenon, millions of people have recently been affected by floods and monga requiring evacuation, shelter and relief assistance or ‘forced’ migrations. Indeed, even if floods are considered like a “natural” phenomenon,” it appears to be a more complex mix of both natural and socio-political and economic processes in society that threaten populations. These different potential causes of displacement help us understand why, at the moment, there is no consensus about the concept of climatic refugees. Some experts do not support this concept because the real consequences of global warming are not yet obvious. Even if we cannot yet attribute it to global warming and climate change for sure, findings are showing there are already a lot of movements of population linked with some environmental disasters like riverbank erosion, cyclone, salty water, etc. Consequently, we fear that when the impact of climate change will be real, Bangladesh and his population will be one of first and most heavily impacted. We have also observed that currently nobody controls movements of displaced people. Even if the causes of migration are very similar from one person to the next, we have seen that people opt for different strategies in terms of destination and timing for migration. Currently in Bangladesh, migrating (temporally or not) appears to the affected population as one of the best strategies to cope with floods, riverbank erosion, cyclones, monga, etc. and consequently to survive. However, while migrating might be the only option in the future, not everybody has the means to do so nor everybody is satisfied with this option. There is indeed no guarantee to find employment or housing in the place of destination. Furthermore, the current structures and organizations to help the victims of disasters deal with subsequent migration flows will not be enough to cope with the increase of these phenomena in the future. Climate change is a new dimension in the complexity of natural disasters. People will have to adjust to this change. But there might be a moment when they will not be able to adapt any more. In 20 or 30 years there will most likely be massive movements and poor people will be the most vulnerable. Given the political instability of the region, population movements associated with climate change could pose a threat to regional security. Moreover, adaptation strategies could reduce the environmental vulnerability and increase the resilience of local populations.

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Considering that all countries will be affected by global warming, Bangladesh can be seen as an example case study to envisage what the future will be like. Indeed, while the consequences of global warming are still uncertain, the case of Bangladesh shows that they could be extreme. It is possible that 2/3 of Bangladesh territory will be under water at some point with human consequences we can only imagine at this point. Who would welcome the millions of displacees created by global warming? 4.1. Future research As this exploratory report has attempted to show, Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most severely hit country by climate change and its population already suffers from environmental disasters. The consequences of climate change are slowly rendering the living conditions of this population even harsher than they were before. This research has shed light on different issues and, for instance, has shown that the population is already busy finding adaptation strategies to the new situation. The worsening of the situation however renders migration increasingly as the only option available (a choice that many have already made). Even though Bangladesh is one of the first countries showing apparent repurcussions of climate change, the country has nonetheless undertaken limited research on environmentally related migration in Bangladesh. For this reason, it is crucial to stimulate the creation of interdisciplinary networks to foster dialogue between experts on questions such as adaptation strategies to climate change in Bangladesh and in other countries. Similarly, it would be very interesting to conduct deeper research in urban centres such as Dhaka, Chittagong etc. to examine what is being implemented to absorb the large influx of migrants in these already overpopulated cities. How does the integration of this population in the slum take place? These questions should also be examined in the Indian context where many Bangladeshi decide to migrate. Considering the dependence of Bangladesh on its neighbour, this dimension should certainly be taken into consideration. The results of this exploratory research with experts and the local population have shed light on the importance to develop new research for a better understanding of the consequences of climate change (and for better preparing ourselves) not only in Bangladesh but also in the rest of the world.

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29th June 2008.

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Annex 1: List and details on the experts interviewed during fieldwork 1. M.Quamruzzaman Deputy Director Ministry of Foreign Affairs External Publicity Winga Government Dhaka 2. Dr Firuz Kabir RMP Rural Medicine Practitioner Chars 3. Mohon Kumar Mondal Executive Director LEDARS - Local Environment Development and Agricultural Research Society (eco-club in Satkhira) Association in Satkhira 4. Asha Asafaker Rahman Rupantar Association in Khulna 5. Abdul Bari Khan Additional Secretary Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Dhaka 6. Ainun Nishat, Ph.D. IUCN, The World Conservation Union Country Representative (Bangladesh Country Office) Dhaka 7. Professor Dr.K. Maudood Elahi Pro-vice Chancellor- Head of environmental sciences department Stamford University Bangladesh Dhaka 8. Atiq Rahman: Executive Director Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Chairman: Climate Action Network- South Asia (CANSA) Dhaka 9. Rabab Fatima: IOM - International Organization for Migration

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Regional Representative for South Asia IOM Dhaka Mission with Regional Functions Dhaka 10. Dr Samarendra Karmakar: Director SAARC Meteorological Research Center (SMRC) and PR of Bangladesh with WMO Dhaka 11. Mizan R Khan Chairman Department of Environmental Science and Management North South University Dhaka 12. Phillip Gain SEHD Society for Environment and Human Development Dhaka 13. Md. Sazedul Karim Chowdhury Superintending Engineer & NPD Bangladesh Water Development Board Dhaka 14. Dr Mizanur Rahman Professor of Law University of Dhaka Dhaka 15. Abrar Chowdhury Refugee and Migration Movements Research Unit Dhaka 16. Wazama Doja FRIENDSHIP NGO Dhaka and Gaibandha

32

Annex 2: List of migrants interviewed during fieldwork

Ref. Num.

Gender Age Category

Religion Place of residence Place of origin

1 M B Muslim Kholshidighir, EPZ Area, Chittagon

Baliatoli, Thana-Amtoli, Burguna

2 F A Muslim Mohammadpur, Dhaka

Bapta, Bhola, Barisal

3 M A Muslim Mohakhali, Dhaka Pubkarabonia, Barisal, Borguna

4 F A Muslim Banani, Dhaka. Bhola Barishal 5 F A Muslim Banani, Dhaka Binaipal, Kumilla 6 M B Muslim Banani, Dhaka Boali, Gaibandha 7 F A Muslim Balurmat, Uttora,

Dhaka Urbonia, Borguna

8 M A Muslim Balmurat, Uttora, Dhaka

Shatashi, Natrokona

9 M B Muslim Kawran Bazar, Dhaka

Poshimp Kolatbip, Chadpur

10 M B Muslim Bangla Motor, Dhaka Grandjipur, Bhola 11 M C Muslim Kawar Bazar, Dhaka Ashabara

Gaibandha 12 M B Muslim Kawar Bazar, Dhaka Moladi, Barisal 13 F A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria,

Dhaka Choto Manikha,

Bhola 14 M A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria,

Dhaka Bilsanawta, Zhalokathi

15 M A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria, Dhaka

Chonouta, Zhalokathi

Age categories: A: 18-30 years old B: 31-40 years old C: 41-50 years old

Annex 3: List of “non-migrants” interviewed during fieldwork Ref. num.

Gender Age Cat.

Religion Place of residence

1 F B Muslim Kotchikali Char, Gaibanda 2 M C Muslim Shapenchar. Gaibandh

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3 F B Muslim Purbo Batgpari, Aranda Bari 4 M C Hindu Munshigong, Satkhira 5 F A Hindu Munshigong, Satkhira 6 F A Muslim Chokpara, Satkhira (Shamnajar) 7 F B Muslim Moddam Khalishabani, Satkhira 8 M A Muslim Chakpara, Satkhira 9 M B Muslim Chokpara, Satkhira (Shamnogar)

10 F B Muslim Mojidghara, Botiaghata (Khulna) 11 M C Muslim Kismot, Khulna 12 F A Muslim Kurighata, Khulna 13 M C Hindu Majerchar, Pirajpur 14 F A Muslim North Southkhali, Bagherat

34

Annex 1: List and details on the experts interviewed during fieldwork

1. M.Quamruzzaman Deputy Director Ministry of Foreign Affairs External Publicity Wing Government Dhaka 2. Dr Firuz Kabir RMP Rural Medicine Practitioner Chars 3. Mohon Kumar Mondal Executive Director LEDARS - Local Environment Development and Agricultural Research Society (eco-club in Satkhira) Association in Satkhira 4. Asha Asafaker Rahman Rupantar Association in Khulna 5. Abdul Bari Khan Additional Secretary Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Dhaka 6. Ainun Nishat, Ph.D. IUCN, The World Conservation Union Country Representative (Bangladesh Country Office) Dhaka 7. Professor Dr.K. Maudood Elahi Pro-vice Chancellor- Head of environmental sciences department Stamford University Bangladesh Dhaka 8. Atiq Rahman: Executive Director Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Chairman: Climate Action Network- South Asia (CANSA) Dhaka 9. Rabab Fatima:

35

IOM - International Organization for Migration Regional Representative for South Asia IOM Dhaka Mission with Regional Functions Dhaka 10. Dr Samarendra Karmakar: Director SAARC Meteorological Research Center (SMRC) and PR of Bangladesh with WMO Dhaka 11. Mizan R Khan Chairman Department of Environmental Science and Management North South University Dhaka 12. Phillip Gain SEHD Society for Environment and Human Development Dhaka 13. Md. Sazedul Karim Chowdhury Superintending Engineer & NPD Bangladesh Water Development Board Dhaka 14. Dr Mizanur Rahman Professor of Law University of Dhaka Dhaka 15. Abrar Chowdhury Refugee and Migration Movements Research Unit Dhaka 16. Wazama Doja FRIENDSHIP NGO Dhaka and Gaibandha

36

Annex 2: List of migrants interviewed during fieldwork

Ref. Num.

Gender Age Category

Religion Place of residence Place of origin

1 M B Muslim Kholshidighir, EPZ Area, Chittagon

Baliatoli, Thana-Amtoli, Burguna

2 F A Muslim Mohammadpur, Dhaka

Bapta, Bhola, Barisal

3 M A Muslim Mohakhali, Dhaka Pubkarabonia, Barisal, Borguna

4 F A Muslim Banani, Dhaka. Bhola Barishal 5 F A Muslim Banani, Dhaka Binaipal, Kumilla 6 M B Muslim Banani, Dhaka Boali, Gaibandha 7 F A Muslim Balurmat, Uttora,

Dhaka Urbonia, Borguna

8 M A Muslim Balmurat, Uttora, Dhaka

Shatashi, Natrokona

9 M B Muslim Kawran Bazar, Dhaka

Poshimp Kolatbip, Chadpur

10 M B Muslim Bangla Motor, Dhaka Grandjipur, Bhola 11 M C Muslim Kawar Bazar, Dhaka Ashabara

Gaibandha 12 M B Muslim Kawar Bazar, Dhaka Moladi, Barisal 13 F A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria,

Dhaka Choto Manikha,

Bhola 14 M A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria,

Dhaka Bilsanawta, Zhalokathi

15 M A Muslim Tejgoa, Begunbaria, Dhaka

Chonouta, Zhalokathi

Age categories: A: 18-30 years old B: 31-40 years old C: 41-50 years old

Annex 3: List of “non-migrants” interviewed during fieldwork Ref. num.

Gender Age Cat.

Religion Place of residence

1 F B Muslim Kotchikali Char, Gaibanda

37

2 M C Muslim Shapenchar. Gaibandh 3 F B Muslim Purbo Batgpari, Aranda Bari 4 M C Hindu Munshigong, Satkhira 5 F A Hindu Munshigong, Satkhira 6 F A Muslim Chokpara, Satkhira (Shamnajar) 7 F B Muslim Moddam Khalishabani, Satkhira 8 M A Muslim Chakpara, Satkhira 9 M B Muslim Chokpara, Satkhira (Shamnogar)

10 F B Muslim Mojidghara, Botiaghata (Khulna) 11 M C Muslim Kismot, Khulna 12 F A Muslim Kurighata, Khulna 13 M C Hindu Majerchar, Pirajpur 14 F A Muslim North Southkhali, Bagherat