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Statement of the Early Warning Information
Working Group of the Food Security and
Agriculture Cluster
Early Warning Update
Early Warning
Information
Working Group
The Early Warning Information Working
Group (EWIWG) under the Food
Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC)
is an inter-institutional mechanism to
promote synergy among cluster
members. Its function is to gather,
share and analyze food security and
agriculture early warning information,
and prepare recommendations to the
FSAC.
Principles 1. Member institutions are committed
to timely information sharing.
2. The EWI WG does not replace or
substitute any partner institution
mandate.
3. The group discusses and approves
its recommendations, for further
discussion of the FSAC.
4. The group reports and analyses are
based on internal consensus.
5. Institutions participating in the
EWIWG can establish task forces to
undertake specific activities, not
being necessary the participation of
all members.
6. FSAC membership will discuss and
decide on a follow up to the
recommendations.
Partners
ACF Agromet
FAO FEWSNET
iMMAP MAIL
OCHA Solidarités Int.
WFP MEDAIR
Contact
Cyril Lekiefs, FSAC Coordinator
0798 000 131
Core Messages: In August Early Warning Information Working Group meeting, iMMAP, WFP, FEWS-NET, Solidarities International, ACF and MEDAIR were in participation.
Climate and water availability: June to August are the three dry months in the country, but there is a good amount
of water available in the northern region. The second crop (maize and cotton) seems to be good. According to the International Institute for Weather Forecast (IRI) the coming winter will have a late start.
2012 National Cereal Harvest Prospect: Yakawlang District, Bamyan and Ruy-e Doab District, Samangan: Rainfall was
normal this year. Perception of communities regarding harvest is good. Harvest should be normal for both irrigated and rain-fed crops, except in flooded areas. In Yakawlang, livestock was affected more than usual by Black legs disease. Pasture conditions are good this year.
Wheat Market prices: Average wheat grain retail prices were decreasing since July-2011 and continued
until July 2012. It is mainly due to decrease of wheat price on the regional markets (Pakistan and Kazakhstan) and harvesting time in some areas. On the international market continues decreasing trend of wheat price started from October 2011 to June 2012, while increased in July 2012.
Following the wheat grain price trend, wheat flour average price is also on decreasing since July 2011 until May 2012, while prices increased in June and July 2012.
Daily Wage:
Daily wage in northern Afghanistan have increased by 66 percent during the harvest period that will help the landless households to have adequate food stock before entering hunger season.
Daily wage rate is still Afs300 on average in the labor market where WFP collects data. The rate, however, varied from Afs150 to Afs500 for the laborers engaged in the harvesting.
Labor wage in the northern provinces has increased from Afs250/day to around 500/day depending on the region. In some areas the labor demands up to 33 percent share from the land owner for harvesting.
In the east there has been an 88 percent increase in the labor daily wage in comparison to the past five years.
This issue
Crop Conditions P.3
Market Situation P.4
Data Annexes P.5
Report 32 August 14,
2012
2
Market Situation:
WFP: Annex I: WFP
Price of wheat grain in main urban cities:
The monthly average price of wheat in the main urban markets was 18.4Afs/Kg. Compared to the past month (June 2012) the average price increased by 1.2percent. The highest increase occurred in Jalalabad 7.1 followed by Maimana 6.8, Kandahar 5.6 and Kabul 3.4 percent. The main reason for increase is increased demand in the month of Ramadan and daily market fluctuation. While slightly decreased only in Hirat 8.5 percent. Main reason for decrease is harvest time in Hirat. The variation in Mazar and Nili is zero.
Compared to July 2011, the average price decreased by 10.7 percent. The highest decrease occurred in Faizabad 26.1, followed by Hirat 19.7, Mazar 13.5, Kandahar 12.2, Maimana 10.8, Nili 4, and Jalalabad 1 percent. Main reason for decrease is more supply as compared to last year. While slightly increased only in Kabul 3.4 percent.
On a two-years comparison July 2010, the average price of wheat is higher by 28.3 percent and compared with the pre-crisis average (Jan-Oct 2007), current prices are 33.8 percent higher.
Price of wheat flour in main urban cities:
The monthly average price of wheat flour in main urban markets was 24.1 Afs/Kg that shows 6.6 increase compared to June 2012. The highest increase is in Maimana 14.3 followed by Jalalabad and Mazar 10.4, Nili 6.9, Kabul 6.1, Hirat 5.7, Kandahar and Faizabad 0.4 percent. Main reason for increase is usual trend in prices in post harvest time.
In one year comparison July 2011, the average wheat flour price decreased in main cities by 11.7 percent.
The highest decrease noticed in Hirat 17.8 followed by Faizabad 17.2, Maimana 14.3, Nili 12.7, Kandahar 9.8, Mazar 9.5, Jalalabad 6.0 and Kabul 0.8. The main reason for decrease is a decrease in price in neighbouring countries and more supply than last year.
On the two-year comparison July 2010, the average prices of wheat flour increased by 21.1 percent, and compared with the pre-crisis average Jan-Oct 2007, current prices are 44.5 percent higher.
Main highlights: Average wheat grain retail prices were on decreasing since July-2011 and continued until the reporting month (July
2012). It is mainly due to decrease of wheat price on the regional markets (Pakistan and Kazakhstan) and harvesting time in some areas. On the international market continues decreasing trend of wheat price started from October 2011 till June 2012, while increased in the month of July 2012.
Following the Wheat grain price trend, Wheat flour average price is also on decreasing since July-2011till May 2012 while price is increased in the months of June and July 2012.
3
WFP: Annex I: WFP
Terms of Trade (ToT):
Casual Labor and Wheat: The Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual Labor and wheat is a proxy indicator or the purchasing capacity of households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of wheat in the market. This ToT reveal how many Kilograms of wheat can be purchased with one day of casual labor wage, but do not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.
On average, this ToT slightly improved by 3.1 percent from June to July 2012. The highest improvement is observed in Faizabad 12.3 followed by Mazar 9.8, Hirat 9.4, and Jalalabad 1.4 percent. The main reason for improvement is due to increase in labor wage and decrease in wheat price. However, there is deterioration in Kandahar 5.2, followed by Kabul and Maimana 3.3 percent. The variation in Nili is normal.
In comparison to last year July 2011, the improvement is observed by 16.6 percent. The highest improvement occurred in Hirat 36.2 followed by Maimana 32.1, Mazar 29.1, Jalalabad 28.1, Faizabad 8.2 and Nili 4 percent. However, there is deterioration in Kabul by 3.4 followed by Kandahar 2.4. On the 2 years comparison it deteriorated by 6 percent. The highest deterioration was in Hirat 31.1, Mazar 20.4, Maimana 19.4, Nili 8.1 and Kandahar 5.3 percent. However, there is improvement of 31.2 in Jalalabad followed by Faizabad 30.7 and Kabul 9.3 percent.
This ToT improved by 42.4 percent over pre-crisis price level.
Sheep and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and wheat is a proxy for the purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how many kilograms of wheat can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.
On average, this ToT improved by 1.0 percent over the past month July 2012 due to slight increase in sheep prices. The highest improvement occurred in Faizabad 9.6, followed by Jalalabad 9.4, and Hirat 5.9 percent. However, there is deterioration in Kandahar by 9.7 followed by Kabul 2.5, Mazar 0.7 and Maimana 0.4 percent.
Compared to same month last year, the average ToT improved by 19.7 percent. The highest improvement occurred in Mazar 91.3, followed by Faizabad 80.4, Maimana 39.5, Hirat 33.6, and Jalalabad 10.2 percent. However, a deterioration occurred in Nili 26.4 followed by Kandahar 9.9 and Kabul 0.7 percent.
On the 2-year comparison, the average sheep/wheat ToT has deteriorated by 8.5, while on the pre-crises level comparison, it has deteriorated by 5.0 percent.
Data Annexes:
Annex I: WFP
5
6
7
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Source: WFP/VAM market data from Afghanistan main cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar, Jalalabad, Faizabad, Hirat, Maimana and Nili)
Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) – World Food Programme (WFP), Afghanistan
Annex II: Agromet Data
Comparison of recoded rainfall data from June 15th to 30th 2012 with the same period in 2011. chart1 shows an increase of rainfall in 2012 June over the same month last year, however rainfall was good in most of the stations, but faced with decrease in some other stations.
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Rain
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Rainfall data from June 15 to 30, 2012
2011 2012
Rainfall data June and July 2012
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Bam
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tarla
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ak
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ar
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Kandah
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gah
Uru
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Zaranj
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Khost
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day
Urg
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Farah
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a-e-
naw
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Rain
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mm
2011 2012
Comparison of rainfall data for the month of July 2012 with the same month in 2011. chart 3 shows significant decrease of rainfall during the month of July 2012 over the same month of last year around the country.
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Ra
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Rainy days from June 15 to 30, 2012
2011 2012
Comparison of rainy days from June 15th to 30th, 2012, with the same period of time last year (chart 2) shows an increase in rainy days during June 15th to 30 2012 over the same period of time in last year, in most of the stations.
Rainy days June and July 2012
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July
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kabu
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Farah
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naw
Shin
dand
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Da
ys
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mb
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2011 2012
Based on the recorded data of rainy days for July 2012 with the same month of last year, chart 4 shows rainy days had significant decrease during July 2012 compared to the same month, last year.
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Te
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June
2011 2012
However seasonally temperature rises in this time of the year, but the country experienced low temperature during the month of June 2012 compared to last year, and temperature departure was 2 to 4 °C in most parts of the country.
In comparison of monthly average of temperature for the month of June 2012 with the same month in 2011, Chart 5 shows a decrease of temperature during the month of June 2012 over the same month of last year around the country.
Temperature June and July 2012
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Tem
pera
ture
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2011 2012
During the past months the temperature was accompanied with large negative anomaly 2 to 4 °C
around the country, but during July temperature had deferent situation, in some parts temperature had a decrease compared to the same month of last year in some parts experienced higher temperature.
In comparison of monthly average of temperature for the month of July 2012 with the same month in 2011; chart 6 shows deferent temperature situation during July, temperature had an increase in some parts during July 2012 over the same month of last year and some parts temperature was accompanied with a decrease.
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June
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Kunduz
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Zaranj
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Kabul
Te
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ture
in C
Min Max
Chart 7 shows maximum and minimum temperature for the month of June 2012. As it shows, Jaladabad with 44 °C was the warmest spot of the country, and Bamyan with 6.2 °C experienced the lowest temperature.
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Tem
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July
Min Max
Chart 8 shows maximum and minimum temperature for the month of July. As it shows Zaranj with 47 °C was the warmest spot of the spot of the country, and Bamyan with 8.6 °C experienced lower temperature.
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Wheat Crop Stage, Condition and Adverse Factor Maps
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