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EBA Investment Attractiveness INDEX. IV 2012. Conducted by the EBA with the support of InMind research company. Project summary. The results of the 18 th wave of investment climate in Ukraine tracking research - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
EBA Investment Attractiveness INDEX
IV 2012Conducted by the EBA
with the support of
InMind research company
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
2
Project summary• The results of the 18th wave of investment climate in Ukraine tracking research
• Methodology: EBA Investment Attractiveness Index is assessed as the mean value based on the following five questions:
• What do you think about the investment climate in Ukraine?
• How would you estimate the investment climate for your company in Ukraine at the moment compared to the previous three months?
• What are your expectations of the investment climate in Ukraine over the next three months?
• In your opinion, would it be profitable for new entrants to invest into Ukraine over the next three months?
• What are your expectations of the business environment of your primary industry over the next three months?
• Participants: 118 CEOs of EBA members companies
• Timing: December 1-14, 2012
• Survey implementation: the Survey was conducted by the EBA with the support of InMind research company
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
3
Key findings
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009
II/2009
III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010
II/2010
III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011
II/2011
III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012
II/2012
III/2012
IV/2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
3.14
2.22 2.22
2.64 2.56 2.57
3.083.25 3.20 3.28 3.40 3.39
2.56
2.19 2.18 2.19 2.14 2.12
EBA Investment Attractiveness Index
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
4
Key findings
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
3.1
2.3
2.0
2.32.2
2.1
2.7
3.83.6
3.53.7 3.7
2.3
1.81.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
2.8
1.8
2.1
2.5 2.6
3.23.2
3.43.6 3.5
2.5
2.2 2.2
2.3
2.1 2.1
3.3
2.3
2.72.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.7
2.3 2.32.3 2.2 2.3
Current Investment Climate evaluation
Investment Climate Dynamics: changes to the previous 3 months
Expectatin on Investment Climate change within next three months
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
5
Key findings
III/08 IV/08 I/09 II/09 III/09 IV/09 I/10 II/10 III/10 IV/10 I/11 II/11 III/11 IV/11 I/12 II/12 III/12 IV/12
Investment Climate in Ukraine
3,1 2,3 2,0 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,7 3,8 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,7 2,3 1,8 1,7 1,8 1,8 1,7
Investment Climate Dynamics: last 3 months
2,8 1,8 2,1 2,7 2,5 2,6 3,2 3,2 3,1 3,4 3,6 3,5 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,3 2,1 2,1
Investment Climate Dynamics Expectations: next 3 months
3,1 2,2 2,2 2,8 2,6 2,8 3,4 3,0 3,2 3,2 3,2 3,2 2,7 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,3
Profitability for new entrants: next 3 months
3,4 2,3 2,4 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,9 3,3 3,2 3,2 3,4 3,4 2,6 2,3 2,1 2,1 2,3 2,2
Investment Climate of Primary Industry: next 3 months
3,3 2,5 2,4 2,7 2,9 2,8 3,2 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,2 2,7 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,3 2,3
General EBA Index 3,14 2,22 2,22 2,64 2,56 2,57 3,08 3,25 3,20 3,28 3,40 3,39 2,56 2,19 2,18 2,19 2,14 2,12
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
6
Key findings
3.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.0
2.0 2.0
2.52.3 2.4
2.9
3.53.3
3.53.7 3.6
2.3
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
3.3
2.3 2.3
2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3
2.7
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
General EBA Index
Present Investment Climate
Future Investment Climate (Expectations)
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
EBA – Index:
Components
7
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
4%
24% 35%24%
22%19%
12%
2%2%
2%
20%38% 45% 42%
49%
43%
33%
51%47% 46% 53%
59%42%
11%15% 16%
8%12%
44%44% 40% 43%
35%48%
18% 15% 7% 12% 15% 15% 22% 19% 24% 20% 22% 27% 25% 15% 13% 11% 8% 7%
37%
6% 8%15% 5% 3%
20%
50% 49% 49% 51%35%
11%
2% 1% 3% 6% 2%
8%
4%3%
3%5% 3%
5%
19% 13% 13% 18%24%
1% 2%0%
4 - rather favourable to invest-ing
3 - neutral to investing
2 - rather unfavourable to investing
1 - definitely unfavourable to investing
буфер
Mean
Mean
3,1 2,3 2,0 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,7 3,8 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,7 2,3 1,8 1,7 1,8 1,8 1,7
Investment Climate in UkraineThe Investment Climate in Ukraine is… (5 point scale)
0
–
+
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
7%
41%36%
13%17% 10%
3%0%
1%
14%
23%28% 23% 36%
30%
28%40%
36%22% 29%
34%13% 23% 24%
15%13%
15%34% 46% 35% 29%
25%35%
50% 19% 17% 49% 47% 50% 56% 46% 51% 36% 30% 43% 40% 28% 32% 44% 31% 34%
12%
6%
13%5% 4%
26%20% 19% 35% 43%
20%11%
3% 3%3%
5% 1%
3%
5%
4%2% 2%
5%10% 6%
11%14%
22%
1%2% 1%
3%0%
4 - rather became better
3 - remained the same
2 - rather became worse
1 - definitely became worse
буфер
Mean
Investment Climate Dynamics: last 3 months
The Investment Climate in Ukraine is… (5 point scale)
0
–
+
Mean
2,8 1,8 2,1 2,7 2,5 2,6 3,2 3,2 3,1 3,4 3,6 3,5 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,3 2,1 2,1
9
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
2%
24%29%
6% 12%3%
3%
1% 1% 2%
11%
18% 24% 22% 26% 21%
22%38%
33%29%
32%37%
7%27% 24%
22% 16% 17% 27% 38%27%
36% 40%36%
50% 36% 29% 50% 39% 45% 53% 47% 46% 39% 47% 51% 47% 38%41%
39% 28% 41%
17%
6%
8% 14% 13%
37%
17% 21% 29%29% 22%
15%
5%7%
3%3%
1%
9%
2% 3%
6% 3% 1%
3%
7%9%
9% 7%9%
1%1%
3%1%
4 - will rather become better
3 - will remain the same
2 - will rather become worse
1 - will definitely become worse
буфер
Mean
10
Investment Climate dynamics expectations: next 3 months
The Investment Climate in Ukraine is… (5 point scale)
0
–
+
Mean
3,1 2,2 2,2 2,8 2,6 2,8 3,4 3,0 3,2 3,2 3,2 3,2 2,7 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,3
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
2%
30% 23%14%
19% 16%5%
2% 2% 3%1% 2%
15%
14% 28%28%
28%
22%
14%34% 32% 24%
39%30% 28%
15% 19% 16%15% 15%
26%48% 38%
41% 34%46%
40% 21% 32% 41% 19% 38% 44% 49% 44% 48% 36% 40% 42% 28%29%
23% 26% 29%
27%
11% 4%
15%
12%
13%18%
23% 29% 25% 38% 30%15%
9%5%
7% 8% 3%
17%
4% 9%
5%
12%2%
5%
12% 6% 8%9%
13%
2%
1% 1%4%
1%
4 - Rather profitable
3 - Difficult to say
2 - Rather not profitable
1 - Definitely not profitable
буфер
Mean
11
Profitability for New entrants: next 3 months
Profitability for New Entrants … (5 point scale)
0
–
+
Mean
3,4 2,3 2,4 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,9 3,3 3,2 3,2 3,4 3,4 2,6 2,3 2,1 2,1 2,3 2,2
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
III/2008
IV/2008
I/2009 II/2009 III/2009
IV/2009
I/2010 II/2010 III/2010
IV/2010
I/2011 II/2011 III/2011
IV/2011
I/2012 II/2012 III/2012
IV/2012
2%
23%23% 6%
10%
5%3%
2% 3% 3%3%
9%
13% 15%17% 24%
17%
17%25%
33%
31%
16%
24%13%
18% 24% 23% 19%18%
23% 37%30%
30% 32%44%
45% 38% 30% 51% 48% 58% 52% 57% 52% 48% 54% 44% 57% 45%46%
46% 37% 32%
16%7% 10%
6%22% 13%
33%16% 16% 19% 15% 23% 11%
4%5%
7%6% 4%
20%
7%4%
5%
3%
2%
7% 6% 7% 9%12%
3%
1%1% 2%
4 - will rather become better3 - will remain the same2 - will rather become worse1 - will definitely become worseбуферMean
12
Investment Climate of primary industry: next 3 months
Investment climate of primary industry…(5 point scale)
0
–
+
Mean
3,3 2,5 2,4 2,7 2,9 2,8 3,2 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,2 2,7 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,3
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
13
Positive Changes in Investment Climate during the last 3 months
Other
Customs services improving
Currency rate stability
The relative stability of the situation
Parliament elections went peacefully
No positive changes
5%
3%
3%
3%
11%
76%
When being asked about positive changes that took place during the last 3 months, 76% noticed the absence of such changes in the investment climate.11% of investors indicated relatively peaceful elections as a positive change . «Parliamentary elections went peacefully», «reduced number of inspections due to the elections», «elections finished, focus should come back to real life soon», «no more elections in near future» - with these words respondents described positive changes in last quarter of 2012.
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
14
Negative Changes in Investment Climate during the last 3 months
Worsening of the country image and relations with other countries
Worsening of business conditions for foreign companies
Lack of bank resources, lack of credits
No guarantees of business security, criminalization of power
Non-refundable VAT
Absence of positive changes, continued deterioration of situation
Growth of internal debt, worsening of financial indicators
Pressure of customs, unreasonable custom payments
Constant changes of laws
Low purchasing power, lack of working capital
Corruption,weak judiciary system
Political situation, elections, imbalanced work of the government
Currency fluctuations, monetary policy of the NBU, concerns about exchange rates
Increased pressure from fiscal authorities
No negative changes
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
6%
7%
8%
14%
19%
23%
14%
In comparison to previous periods, a lot of experts noticed the increase of pressure from fiscal authorities on business (this indicator decreased in Q2 & Q3 2012). Also the experts noted the problems of currency regulation, currency fluctuation and restrictions on foreign exchange transactions.The third important negative manifestation of Q4 2012 was the course of elections. The main part of experts negatively described the results of elections, because of lack of transparency, and impact on the economy - governmental populism and political influence on the distribution of budget funds.Also the situation of governmental corruption, inefficient judicial system, business conditions and position of Ukraine in the international arena did not improve.
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
15
Estimation of the situation with solving issues
Corruption Court system reform
Land reform Currency regulation
VAT refund Customs Procedures
simplification
Technical barriers to
trade
58%49%
19%
41%32%
19%26%
28%31%
32%
39%
31%
30%31%
11% 16%
45%
13%30%
39%35%
2% 3% 3% 4% 5%10% 7%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1%2% 1%
definitely favourable
rather favourable
neither un-favourable nor favourable
rather unfavourable
definitely un-favourable
0,0 -0,1 0,0 -0,4 -0,0 -0,2 0,0
1,6 1,7 2,3 1,9 2,1 2,5 2,2
Changes:
Mean:
For the 7 key priorities of the EBA, the situation was relatively unchanged in comparison to the previous quarter. Stable decrease of ratings was observed in the sphere of currency regulation – a mean value of this index declined in the third wave of the survey, and in the 4th quarter decreased by 0.4 points.
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
16
Summary
For the 7 key priorities of the EBA in context of business and relations with the government, the situation was relatively unchanged. Current situation was considered by experts almost entirely conducive for solving problems of corruption and judiciary system, and rather unfavorable for land issues, VAT and technical barrier of trade. Experts also negatively evaluated sphere of currency regulation. The most positive were estimates of power in solving problems of customs procedures.
For the 7 key priorities of the EBA in context of business and relations with the government, the situation was relatively unchanged. Current situation was considered by experts almost entirely conducive for solving problems of corruption and judiciary system, and rather unfavorable for land issues, VAT and technical barrier of trade. Experts also negatively evaluated sphere of currency regulation. The most positive were estimates of power in solving problems of customs procedures.
The integral index of investment attractiveness and its components did not change during the fourth quarter of 2012, and the indices of 2012 showed the lowest for the entire period of measurement.
The integral index of investment attractiveness and its components did not change during the fourth quarter of 2012, and the indices of 2012 showed the lowest for the entire period of measurement.
If to talk about positive and negative changes, that took place in the investment climate during the last 3 months, most of experts tended to negative evaluations, in particular they noted the increase of pressure from fiscal authorities on business. Also the experts negatively evaluated currency policy of NBU. The election results were also considered as negative – for example, nontransparent elections and their impact on the policy of the Government (making populist decisions, political influence on the distribution of budget funds, etc.). The largest positive change was a relatively peaceful course of elections.
If to talk about positive and negative changes, that took place in the investment climate during the last 3 months, most of experts tended to negative evaluations, in particular they noted the increase of pressure from fiscal authorities on business. Also the experts negatively evaluated currency policy of NBU. The election results were also considered as negative – for example, nontransparent elections and their impact on the policy of the Government (making populist decisions, political influence on the distribution of budget funds, etc.). The largest positive change was a relatively peaceful course of elections.
Investment Attractiveness Index with the support of theInMind research company
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