EBB Spring Summer 2013 FINAL - Building a better …FILE/EBB_Spring_Summer_2013.pdfComposition of the survey sample by bank type Page 4 European Banking Barometer –Spring/Summer

European Banking BarometerGrowing optimism despite a weak economic outlookSpring/Summer 2013

Contents

Page1 Introduction 32 European overview 53 Economic environment 74 European sovereign debt crisis 105 Business outlook and focus areas 136 Business priorities and product line expectations 307 Employment 448 Contacts 50

European Banking Barometer – Spring/Summer 2013Page 2

Introduction

Ernst & Young’s European Banking Barometer is a bi-annual study to determine the views of senior bankers across the major banking markets in Europe. The research focuses on the current macro-economic environment and how it will impact their organization and the banking industry as a whole over the next six months.

The Spring/Summer 2013 Barometer consists of over 250 interviews with senior bankers across 11 markets in Europe –Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Poland, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.

The fieldwork, consisting of telephone interviews and online questionnaires, was conducted throughout Spring 2013 by two external research agencies on Ernst & Young’s behalf. The aim was to interview senior bankers from a range of institutions representing at least 50% of the 11 markets, defined as banking assets owned.

Interviews were not conducted with subsidiaries of member/group banks, and a range of bank types were interviewed in each market to ensure a fair reflection of the industry in each country.

The results are presented in an aggregate format and shown in percentages. Please note that where charts do not add up to 100%, it is because participants either chose not to answer the question or selected ‘Don’t know’ or ‘Not applicable’ as their answer. Where possible we've compared answers against those given in Autumn/Winter 2012 but some questions have changed or are new.

We would like to thank all the research participants for their contribution to the study.

If you would like to take part in our next European Banking Barometer, please speak to your usual Ernst & Young contact or refer to your local-country contact on page 51.


Composition of the survey sample by bank type


Market Total Universal Corporate and

investment

Private bank/wealth

management Specialist

Retail and business

(cooperative)

Retail and business

(state owned)

Retail and business (privately

owned)Europe 252 91 34 42 34 13 9 29Austria 8 4 1 1 1 1Belgium 14 4 4 1 5France 25 7 6 5 2 5Germany 59 38 1 2 12 2 3 1Italy 12 3 1 3 2 3Netherlands 10 1 2 4 1 0 2Nordics 14 5 2 2 2 3Poland 13 7 2 2 1 1Spain 32 10 7 4 3 0 1 7Switzerland 29 2 3 15 3 3 2 1UK 36 10 12 5 6 2 1

* Numbers in the bar chart reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Specialist bank definition – consumer credit, savings and institutions that don’t offer a current account.

36 13.5 17 13.5 20

Universal Corporate and investment Private bank/wealth management Specialist Retail and business

Type of bank*

European overview

Restructuring continues, but some banks are beginning to invest in growth areas.► Regulatory compliance remains the main focus for European banks, but cutting costs, streamlining and automating processes, and minimizing

non-essential spend will continue to be amongst the top five priorities for institutions over the next six months.► Many banks now see streamlining processes as more important than minimizing non-essential expenditure and cutting costs, suggesting they

are moving from tactical to strategic cost reduction.► Redundancies will continue to play a key role in cost reduction programs with 41% of respondents expecting an increase in redundancies

compared with 45% in our Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer. However, most of these job cuts will be part of redundancy programs already announced by banks.

► Staff cuts continue to be centered on back office functions as banks streamline and automate processes. Over one-third of banks expect cuts in Operations and IT, and other head office functions.

► However, some banks are beginning to recruit staff in key areas. Banks expect a net increase in staff in asset management, private banking and corporate banking divisions, where they anticipate increased demand.

Opinions on the economic outlook, and the potential impact of the sovereign debt crisis, remain divided both within individual economies and across Europe.► Fifty percent of respondents expect the current sluggish economic conditions to remain. The remainder are equally split on whether the

economy will improve or deteriorate. This represents a modest improvement from our Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer, when more than 40% expected the economy to deteriorate.

► Surprisingly, Spanish banks are the most optimistic about the economy, with 40% expecting improvement. Record unemployment and aseventh consecutive quarter of economic contraction in Spain may leave little scope for further deterioration.

► Banks in France and Italy are most pessimistic, with 56% and 42% of respondents respectively expecting the economy to decline.► There is little change in expectations about the sovereign debt crisis from our Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer. Thirty-five percent of

respondents expect an increased impact from the sovereign debt crisis. Twenty percent expect its impact to diminish. ► Spanish and Italian banks remain the most concerned about the sovereign debt crisis.


Banks anticipate an improved performance over the next six months as restructuring programs begin to bear fruit. Although cost cutting and job losses will continue during this phase of strategic readjustment, many bank balance sheets are now stronger. However, although increased customer demand is expected, lending restrictions will continue to tighten across Europe.

European overview


European banks will continue to deleverage and sell assets to bolster their balance sheets, but the benefits of restructuring programs are becoming evident at some institutions.► Banks continue to pursue a mix of actions to strengthen their balance sheets and build capital buffers.► Fifty percent of banks expect to shrink their balance sheets over the next six months, with one-third of banks considering selling assets as

they focus on their core businesses.► Forty-five percent of respondents expect to improve their funding mix, with half introducing new incentives to attract deposits.► However, some banks are already significantly stronger. Less than 25% of respondents now expect their bank to access central bank funding

programs, compared with 33% in our Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer. Almost 40% expect to repay such programs.

Following recent M&A activity, fewer banks anticipate further consolidation in the next year.► Only 38% of European banks expect further consolidation of the sector over the next year, compared with 48% in our Autumn/Winter 2012

Barometer, following M&A activity at the end of last year.► Future consolidation is likely to be focused on a tail of smaller institutions, particularly private banks in Switzerland and small Spanish banks.

Almost three-quarters of respondents in Spain and Switzerland anticipate further M&A.► Banks are focused on right-sizing their European operations, with most expecting sales or acquisitions to take place within Europe.► Where banks are looking for growth opportunities, they are more likely to buy assets (25%) than consider joint-ventures or partnerships (19%).

Despite increased customer demand, non-performing loans remain a worry for banks and credit conditions will continue to tighten across Europe.► Banks expect demand for retail savings products to remain strong, but savings rates will stay low. More stable equity markets and a search for

yield mean more banks now anticipate increased demand for personal investment products.► Although 44% of banks anticipate increased demand for corporate lending, they remain worried about non-performing loans, with 32%

expecting to increase loan loss provisions over the next six months.► Banks also expect lending policies to become even more restrictive for most sectors. Construction and commercial real estate will be worst

hit, with more than 40% of banks anticipating more restrictive lending policies.► European policy actions to boost lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are beginning to take effect. Twenty-nine percent of banks

expect lending policies to the SME sector to be less restrictive over the next six months.


Economic environment

2 23.5 50.5 20 4

A little more optimism, a little less pessimism, but most banks expect little change to the economic outlook

How do you expect the general economic outlook in your country to change over the next six months?*


Comments: Banks were slightly less pessimistic about the economic outlook than in our Autumn/Winter Barometer, but there is little cause for celebration as over 50% expect the current sluggish economic conditions to persist. Somewhat surprisingly, Spanish respondents anticipate the greatest improvement in the economy but, with unemployment at a record high and GDP recently contracting for a seventh consecutive quarter, banks are hopeful the economy will not deteriorate much further. The greatest pessimism was in Italy, in the wake of electoral confusion, and France, where the economic recovery continues to disappoint. It remains to be seen whether the European Central Bank’s recent interest rate cut will improve the outlook.

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.

4 15 39 35 6

Strengthen significantly Strengthen slightly Stay the same Weaken slightly Weaken significantly

Autumn/Winter 2012

Spring/Summer 2013

3

6

10

8

2

19

31

34

31

22

20

8

27

12

23.5

7

25

64

55

41

46

64

30

50

54

24

50.5

71.5

37.5

11

10.5

16

15

14

40

25

19

40

20

21.5

37.5

3

3.5

3

8

17

16

4

UKSwitzerland

Spain

Poland

NordicsNetherlands

Italy

GermanyFrance

Europe

BelgiumAustria


Spring/Summer 2013

The outlook has improved most for Spanish and Polish banks

How do you expect the general economic outlook in your country to change over the next six months?*



13

2

19

4

41

4

11

6

26

10

26

2

19

15

20

27

59

30

17

48

45

36

46

11

39

67

80

27

33

48

61

26

25

13

46

48

35

33

5

4

11

17

15

13

4

6

UKSwitzerland

Spain

Poland

NordicsNetherlands

Italy

GermanyFrance

Europe

BelgiumAustria

Autumn/Winter 2012


European sovereign debt crisis

Views on the sovereign debt crisis remain unchanged, despite recent turmoil in Cyprus

What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your country over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*



Comments: Views on the sovereign debt crisis remain consistent with our Autumn/Winter Barometer. Despite fears in some quarters that the Cypriot crisis might lead to capital flight from other, larger, Eurozone members, these have not been realized. Banks in Spain and Italy – which have been focal points of the crisis – remain the most concerned, with 50% and 42% respectively anticipating an increased impact from the crisis – but even here there is little change from Autumn/Winter. Worries have grown in Poland, which is heavily dependent on the Eurozone as an export market.

9 26 45 17 3

Significantly increased impact Slightly increased impact About the same Slightly decreased impact Significantly decreased impact

Autumn/Winter 2012

Spring/Summer 2013

8 27 45.5 18.5 1

6

7

16

23

5

12

8

12.5

31

34.5

34

15.5

7

30

42

22

24

27

35.7

12.5

44

45

41

38.5

64

30

42

54

36

45.5

35.7

62.5

19

10

9

23

29

40

8

19

24

18.5

28.5

12.5

3.5

8

4

1

UKSwitzerland

SpainPoland

NordicsNetherlands

ItalyGermany

FranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Significantly increased impact Slightly increased impact About the same Slightly decreased impact Significantly decreased impact

Spring/Summer 2013

Spanish and Italian banks remain the most concerned about the impact of the sovereign debt crisis

What level of impact do you think the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will have on the banking sector in your country over the next six months compared with the previous six months?*



4

15

6

5

15

8

26

9

36

37

52

11

17

10

28

24

19

26

20

55

37

11

72

70

60

31

52

41

45

17

50

9

22

22

6

13

20

21

14

11

17

50

30

6

5

5

2

4

3

33

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Autumn/Winter 2012


Business outlook and focus areas

Banks are increasingly optimistic about their own performance, despite lingering economic concerns…

How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*



Comments: With a muted economic outlook, and little scope for revenue growth, it is perhaps surprising that more banks now expect their performance to improve over the next six months. This shift in expectations is greatest in non-Eurozonecountries, but may also reflect a belief that cost reduction programs are starting to yield dividends. The greatest improvement in expectations is in the Nordics. Banks are also much more positive in Spain, Switzerland and the UK, where the banking sector has made significant strides in restructuring.

7.5 45.5 31 14 2

5 32 39 21 3


Autumn/Winter 2012

Spring/Summer 2013

How do you expect your bank’s overall performance to change over the next six months?*

22

22

14.3

4

7.5

12.5

53

62

41

23

64.3

20

50

42.3

40

45.5

50

37.5

19

17.3

34

54

21.4

50

25

34

40

31

36

25

3

17.3

3

15

30

25

20.3

16

14

14

25

3

3.4

8

3.4

2

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria


...with banks in non-Eurozone countries more optimistic



Spring/Summer 2013

4

7

6

9

13

2

4

5

59

31

30

18

36

25

38

23

26

32

50

44

32

50

41

29

55

45

38

35

41

39

33

9

15

22

41

15

10

33

26

21

50

22

6

15

6

4

3

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Autumn/Winter 2012

Banks remain worried about loan losses, although the growth of provisions is declining

Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*



Comments: Fewer banks expect to increase loan loss provisions (LLPs) than in the Autumn/Winter Barometer, reflecting the moderation in economic concerns. Even in Spain, which remains plagued by a troubled economy, fewer banks expect to increase LLPs. However, banks are unlikely to significantly increase lending until a far greater proportion of respondents forecast declining provisions.

4 28 53 12 3

9 35 41 12 2

Increase significantly Increase slightly Remain at current levels Decrease slightly Decrease significantly

Autumn/Winter 2012

Spring/Summer 2013

The largest rise in LLPs is expected in Spain, where the economy has contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter

Over the next six months, what do you expect your bank’s total provisions against loan losses to do?*


Spring/Summer 2013

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Some totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

5.5

3.4

16

8.3

8

4

16.5

14

41

54

14.3

20

25

34

28

28

29

25

64

76

34

23

57

50

58.3

49

48

53

57

75

11

3.4

9

23

14.3

30

8.3

14

12

12

14

3

3.4

14.3

3

4

3

UKSwitzerland

SpainPoland

NordicsNetherlands

ItalyGermany

FranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Increase significantly Increase slightly Remain at current levels Decrease slightly Decrease significantly

19

17

9

10

18

6

7

9

10

32

44

37

50

14

20

36

40

33

35

67

20

45

52

37

28

59

45

33

42

37

41

33

40

23

4

7

14

20

13

8

19

12

30

6

5

5

4

4

2

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Autumn/Winter 2012

1420

26212220

2724

3133

4035

262526

16221916

1920

132223

-12-50501

115

11201812

Healthcare

Information technology

SMEs

Media and telecommunications

Manufacturing and industrials (incl. chemicals, eng.)

Commercial and professional services

Retail and consumer products

Energy, mining and minerals

Financial services

Transport (incl. automotive and shipping)

Construction

Commercial real estate


Where totals do not add up to 100%, remaining respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know'. Where no data is shown all respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know’.

Lending prospects will continue to deteriorate for most sectors, but access to finance is improving for SMEs

How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your country to change in each of the following sectors over the next six months?*


Spring/Summer 2013Autumn/Winter 2012Net more/less

restrictiveNet more/less

restrictive

3121

2922

2518

2215

9141615

14171818191922

293334

4446

-17-4

-11-4-610

1424202831

Less restrictive More restrictive

Comments: Since our Autumn/Winter Barometer, the outlook for lending has weakened even further across most sectors. The outlook is most pessimistic for construction and commercial real estate. More positively, banks expect lending to the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector to become less restrictive. This is most notable in Germany, reflecting the continued strength of the Mittlestand, but policy actions are clearly boosting SME lending across Europe.

239

322323

322727

36414646

2732

1914

271410

1419

514

9

815

88108

232731

4419

31

3414

4631

2316

2121

816

2923

HealthcareInformation technology

SMEsMedia and telecomms

Manufacturing**Commercial services**

Retail**Energy and mining**

Financial servicesTransport**

ConstructionCommercial real estate

Austria

Germany

Belgium

Italy

France

Netherlands

Construction and commercial real estate will bear the brunt of more restrictive lending policies…



11111111

2211

3322

3377

55

4422

334444

1133

22

11

1717

5017

503333

6784

50

50

33

1717

17







1122

11222222

1122

4444

2256

2222

33

1122

33

222222

602020

4020202020

4060

40

40202020

4020

40

20

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.** Manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering; Transport includes automotive and shipping, Retail includes consumer products, Energy and mining includes minerals and Commercial services includes professional services.Where totals do not add up to 100%, remaining respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know'. Where no data is shown all respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know’.

■ Less restrictive ■ More restrictive

Nordics

Switzerland

Poland

UK

Spain

…but almost a third of banks now expect SME finance to be less restricted



936

1827

369

3636

5527

7382

3618

2718

2736

918

99







219

3526

1739

1735

2617

7865

4356

3039

4326

358

1743

1313

272727

3645

1827

3636

5472

54

1818

99

189

2799

189

2020

4020

3020

1030

5040

3040

2010

20101010

2020

2020







* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.** Manufacturing includes industries, chemicals and engineering; Transport includes automotive and shipping, Retail includes consumer products, Energy and mining includes minerals and Commercial services includes professional services.Where totals do not add up to 100%, remaining respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know'. Where no data is shown all respondents answered ‘Remain unchanged' or ‘Don't know’.

■ Less restrictive ■ More restrictive

131388

417171721

431

26

139

1313

17171713

494

13

Spring/Summer 2013

Banks are now becoming less reliant on central bank funding programs…

How likely are the banks in your market to be engaged in the following activities over the next six months?*


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered. Banks were not asked about initiatives to promote growth and repaying central bank funding programs in the Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer.

5

4

7

7

7.5

4

9

9

10

11

19

24

28

29

28.5

34.9

31

36

40

39

40

44.5

39

42

42

49.7

45.5

40

33

35

26

23.5

16

16

18

8.7

11.5

13

13.5

10.5

10

4

10

6

4

2.7

3

2

3.5

4.5

Significantly more Slightly more About the same Slightly less Signficantly less

Comments: Fewer banks now expect to access central bank funding programs, and 39% are looking to repay such funding. While it is clear that many banks are significantly stronger than six months ago, the restructuring of the sector isset to continue. Fifty percent of respondents still expect to continue shrinking their balance sheets and to improve their funding mix.

Autumn/Winter 201210

17

10

0

0

10

9

7

4

7

43

39

34

27

28

28

23

26

32

33

39

45

43

43

39

47

12

10

13

14

12

13

29

14

3

2

4

4

7

9

5

6

Reducing the size of the balance sheet

Introducing/Increasing incentives to increase customer deposits

Reducing loan to deposit ratios

Launching initiatives to promote growth

Repaying central bank funding programs

Seeking funding from wholesale capital markets

Selling assets in markets outside their home market

Selling assets in markets outside Europe

Lending to customers

Accessing central bank funding programs

Austria

Germany

Belgium

Italy

France

Netherlands

…but they will continue to shrink their balance sheets…




12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

25

50

37.5

12.5

75

37.5

25

37.5

50

25

25

62.5

62.5

37.5

25

25

62.5

50

37.5

50

25

25

37.5

25

12.5



Selling assets outside Europe

Selling assets outside home market





Introducing/Increasing incentives to increase …

Reducing the balance sheet

14

7

7

29

21

21

28.5

57

21.5

36

36

43

36

64

36

36

43

36

71.5

50

14

29

57

7

29

36

28.5

7

7

14

36

21

14

7

8

4

12

12

28

8

12

20

16

20

32

8

40

28

28

36

20

40

44

40

40

52

32

52

36

52

52

20

36

36

12

36

16

8

4

4

12

20

8

4

4

4

4

10

10

20

10

10

20

40

50

60

50

40

40

50

40

60

50

30

30

30

40

40

40

20

30

30

20

30

20

10

10

30

20

10

8

8.3

16.7

50

25

17

50

41.5

33

33.3

42

33.3

33

33

58

58

42

41.5

50

50

25

33.3

17

50

8

17

17

8.3

25

8.3

17

17

17

8

8.3

Significantly more Slightly more About the same Slightly less Significantly less

3

3

6

4

2

11

11

5

6.5

19

34

18

22

19

33.5

33.5

31

57

39

34

47

42

42

44

44.5

22

51

29.5

36

29

14

20

26

30

11

33.5

16

5

12

15

2

14

6

5

2

3.5

6.5











11

8

14

11

14

6

11

17

11

22

17

33

36

44

33

47

41.5

33

30

39

44

45

30.5

31

42

33

41.5

39

42

22

25

14

16.5

11

8

11

3

11

17

11

3

3

3

3

3

3

6

Significantly more Slightly more About the same Slightly less Significantly less

4

4

7

7

14

7

7

21.5

29.5

11

11

10

20

26

29

41

52

46.5

37

46.5

44.5

50

70

45

32

31

18.5

25

11

14

37

10

15

21

14

18.5

7

18.5

21.5

7.5

30

10

7

4

7











Nordics

Switzerland

Poland

UK

Spain

… and improve their funding mix




6

6

13

13

15.5

3

16

12.5

9

9

34.5

25

37.5

47

38

28

31

37.5

28

44

28

41

40.5

31

28

56

41

37.5

47

41

25

22

3

9

15.5

13

9

12.5

13

3

6.5

6

6

3

3

3

3

7.5

8

8

15.3

7.5

15

31

38

31

31

38.5

62

23

85

85

54

92

54

38

23

46

23

54

7.5

7.5

15

23

15.3

15.5

7.5

7.5

8

8

15.3

7

7

7

7

7

14

7

7

21

29

29

43

29

29

50

43

36

43

29

29

36

50

57

21

29

36

43

14

29

21

21

7

29

7

14

36

14

21

7

7

14

7

7











Asset sales remain central to balance sheet reduction programs…

Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?*


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered (respondents could select more than one option).

Comments: Thirty-two percent of banks expect to sell assets in the next six months – in line with our Autumn/Winter Barometer – with targeted sales of small books most likely. The difficulties of trying to find a buyer for large operations, at a time when most banks are still looking to boost capital levels, have recently been highlighted in the UK. However, some banks are now beginning to focus on growth opportunities, with 25% considering asset purchases, compared to just 18% six months ago. European banks are focused on right-sizing their footprint in their home markets, with the vast majority of asset acquisitions and disposals anticipated in Europe.

32

2519

41

Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these

34

1829

30

Spring/Summer 2013Autumn/Winter 2012

31

17

53

15

43

30

50

29

36

32

21

25

42

24

31

38

29

20

20

20

25

21

25

28

16

8

36

20

42

7

36

19

7

28

41

16

54

43

50

17

61

28

41

50

75

UKSwitzerland

Spain

PolandNordics

Netherlands

ItalyGermany

France

EuropeBelgium

Austria

Sell assets Buy assets Partnerships or joint ventures None of these

…but more banks are now targeting acquisitions

Which, if any, of the following is your bank likely to consider over the next six months in relation to the countries in which it operates?*


Autumn/Winter 2012

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered (respondents could select more than one option).Please note, chart may not add up to 100% due to respondents selecting ‘Don’t know’ or ‘Not applicable’.

55

19

52

17

22

30

38

18

33

30

17

30

18

11

19

11

17

15

10

12

56

18

33

10

41

19

37

33

17

50

33

18

26

29

50

10

23

52

7

39

43

15

28

52

22

34

70

UK

Switzerland

SpainPoland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

BelgiumAustria

Spring/Summer 2013

38

1

61

Yes Don't know No

The restructuring of the banking industry will continue, but fewer banks now anticipate consolidation

Do you expect significant consolidation of the banking sector in your country?*


Spring/Summer 2013


Comments: An ever-increasing regulatory and capital burden will be a key driver for those anticipating that consolidation will continue to play a role in industry restructuring. However, expectations of consolidation have moderately declined across Europe, following recent M&A activity. The fall is most notable in Switzerland, which saw mergers in the private banking sector at the end of last year. Nevertheless, 72% of Swiss respondents still expect further consolidation as private banks struggle with declining profitability, due to increased compliance and IT costs, and revenue pressure, following recent bilateral tax agreements with the UK and Germany. In Spain, where the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring is re-shaping the banking landscape, 72% of respondents anticipate further consolidation.

47

4

49

Autumn/Winter 2012

Switzerland and Spain are the markets most likely to see consolidation in 2H13

Do you expect significant consolidation of the banking sector in your country?*



9

96

78

44

48

25

41

34

48

47

70

5

6

15

8

11

4

86

4

22

50

52

60

51

66

41

49

100

30

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria


14

72

72

23

29

17

44

36

38

37.5

3

10

8

1

86

28

25

77

71

90

75

56

64

61

100

62.5

UKSwitzerland

SpainPoland

NordicsNetherlands

ItalyGermany

FranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Yes Don’t know No

25

49

26

Within the next 12 months Within 1-3 years More than 3 years from now

In most European countries, banks anticipate consolidation over a longer timeframe…

In what timeframe do you anticipate this consolidation to occur?*


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Data calculated using the percentage answering ‘Yes’.

Comments: A lull in the sovereign debt crisis has led to a diminished sense of urgency in bank M&A. Further, with many banks focused on shrinking and strengthening their balance sheets, willing acquirers for assets are few and far between. Consequently, fewer respondents now anticipate consolidation within the next 12 months than in our Autumn/Winter Barometer. Spanish banks expect the greatest consolidation in the short-term, driven by the resolution of failed banks by the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring.

32

50

18


…but most Spanish banks still expect the majority of consolidation to occur within the next year

In what timeframe do you anticipate this consolidation to occur?*


* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Data calculated using the percentage answering ‘Yes’.No respondents from Belgium expected consolidation in the banking sector in Autumn/Winter 2012. Similarly no respondents from Belgium or the Netherlands expected consolidation in the banking sector in Spring/Summer 2013.

20

19

65

0

7.5

22

25

0

80

48

35

67

75

100

31

78

49

100

33

33

25

61.5

26

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Within the next 12 months Within 1-3 years More than 3 years from now

50

12

62

38

27

40

56

38

32

0

14

50

73

33

50

36

60

31

65

54

50

0

29

15

5

13

36

13

35

8

18

0

57

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria



Business priorities and product line expectations


Cost cutting and regulatory compliance continue to overshadow the growth agenda

Rank the importance of the following agenda items for your organization*

6%10%

13%14%

15%16%16%16%

19%19%

22%23%

25%26%

36%37%

42%46%

49%54%

56%60%

Off-shoringReducing the number of products

OutsourcingAcquiring new assets or businesses

New remuneration systemsDisposing of assets or businesses

New foreign markets/internationalizationDeveloping partnerships with non-banks

Restructuring the business to comply with regulationsEstablishing new business segments

Developing Recovery and Resolution PlansCurrent changes in financial reporting/IFRS

Developing/introducing new productsRestructuring the business to cut costs

Investing in customer-facing technologyCompliance with capital market regulations

Compliance with consumer regulation/remediationCutting costs

Minimizing non-essential expenditurePreparing for Basel III

Streamlining processesRisk management

Spring/Summer 2013

Comments: Banks continue to focus on improving risk management and complying with a wide array of post-crisis regulation. Cost cutting also remains a critical activity, as banks attempt to improve their bottom line in a low-revenue growth environment. However, strategic cost reduction, through process automation, is now more important than short-term cuts. Even the innovation and growth agenda appears to be driven by cost cutting, with 36% of banks believing it is important to invest in new customer-facing technology, such as mobile, which has the capability to reduce branch costs. However, with reductions in discretionary spend, banks are unlikely to invest in other longer-term cost reduction strategies such as outsourcing or off-shoring.

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Respondents were asked to rank the importance of activities on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means not at all important and 10 means very important. Percentage shows the proportion of respondents selecting either 8, 9 or 10.

Innovation and growthCost cutting and efficiency

Risk and regulation


Although short-term cost cutting remains a key priority for many banks...


Austria

7%7%7%

14%14%

000

15%14%

23%31%

21%29%

43%33%

50%36%

50%50%

57%57%

Belgium

10%0

5%5%

22%18%

14%17%

22%21%

27%27%

17%30%

24%50%

26%46%

42%52%

33%42%

France

014%14%

013%

00

13%14%14%14%13%13%14%

38%25%

71%75%

50%75%

88%75%













Risk and regulation


7%12%

03%5%7%

5%13%

11%10%

7%18%

14%22%

13%16%

31%51%

49%68%

64%59%












14%18%

45%20%

30%45%

25%55%

27%27%

40%9%

27%45%

64%40%

55%75%75%

50%75%75%

025%

030%

40%25%

10%0

33%10%

40%44%

40%11%

33%80%

75%40%

50%78%

50%90%

Germany Italy Netherlands

4%10%11%

17%7%7%

17%0

11%14%

4%11%

34%21%

40%30%

24%41%

59%41%

48%55%







Developing / introducing new productsRestructuring the business to cut costs






...more institutions are now focused on strategic cost reduction through streamlining and automating processes


Nordics

020%

17%18%

8%20%

10%17%

8%15%15%

31%23%

33%50%

46%62%62%

58%45%

54%54%

Poland

12%7%

23%16%

22%33%

28%19%

30%25%

39%37%

22%35%

32%38%

47%38%

44%48%

35%47%

Spain

8%7%

021%

015%

8%8%

15%15%14%

8%36%

23%57%

43%38%

36%29%

69%64%

79%











Streamlining processes Risk management


Risk and regulation


Switzerland

3%9%11%

22%26%

21%36%

21%29%

36%37%

29%42%

23%27%

54%50%

36%44%

33%64%

69%UK

4.5

4

8.5

4.5

11.5

11

11

13

11

22

26

28

34

32

35

36

37

40.5

52

45

42

43

41

38

39

29

34

16.5

21

14

16

13.5

13

10

18

12.5

5

4

7.5

2.5

2

3

4

3

2

Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)

Securities trading

Debt and equity issuance

Securities services

Corporate banking

Private banking and wealth management

Retail banking

Asset management

Deposit business

Very good Fairly good Neither good nor poor Fairly poor Very poor

How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered.Please note, chart may not add up to 100% due to rounding.Private banking, Wealth management and Asset management were combined in the Autumn/Winter 2012 Barometer.

Spring/Summer 2013

Banks anticipate an improved outlook for most business lines…


Comments: The outlook for the next six months is most positive in retail and private banking, as well as deposit taking. However, after a challenging 2012, the greatest improvement is for investment banking activities. Over 25% of respondents are positive about the outlook for M&A, hopeful that with greater economic stability cash-rich corporations will pursue new acquisitions. Further, with the European Central Bank easing credit spreads, banks also expect an improved performance from their debt issuance and trading businesses.

Autumn/Winter 2012

4

4

3

6

5

10

6

14

16

22

23

24

31

40

30

37

51

45

45

46

45

34

40

37

19

24

20

18

16

13

18

12

11

5

8

7

2

3

6

1

Transaction advisory (e.g., M&A)

Securities trading

Debt and equity issuance

Securities services

Corporate banking

Retail banking

Private wealth management/AM

Deposit business

8

8

13

22.2

25

16.5

9

9

11

25

28

25

40

33.4

50

50

37

36

36

42

57

40

46

30

44.5

17

67

25

48

41

39

33

16

8

7

8

16.5

25

6

14

10

43

8

13

10

4

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


16

11.5

6.5

11

40

20

12.5

6

9

11

18

52

57.5

17

67

50

40

62.5

19

17

35

27

43

24

27

50

10

20

12.5

63

35

38

46

43

8

4

20

11

20

12.5

10

30

13

9

14

6.5

11

2

9

3

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

15

10.5

16

8.5

12.5

9

13

11

14

48

25

48.5

60

50

37.5

44.5

33

43.5

40.5

36

50

18

53.5

29

20

33.5

12.5

44.5

40

30.5

34

36

37.5

15

7

6.5

20

37.5

11

18

13

12.5

7

4

4

8

2

7

12.5

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


Deposit business

Retail banking

…with the strongest performance expected in deposit taking, retail banking plus wealth and asset management



10

20

10

42

29

16.5

13

13

8

52

10

30

50

25

57

50

35

37

46

43

21

60

30

25

25

30

67

22

29

38

28.5

14

27

25

8

14

20

16.5

26

18

8

28.5

3

10

3

4

3

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Asset management


14

7

18

5

13

8.5

50

45

26.6

14

9

55

25

37.5

26

17.5

28

37.5

33

38

46.6

48

82

27

50

50

38

43.5

42

12.5

17

3

6.6

24

9

25

12.5

19

13

14

37.5

20

7

12

13

7.5

12.5

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria



Even the investment banking outlook is improving…



Corporate banking Securities services

4.5

7

3.3

11

4

9.5

4.5

30

25

33.3

33.5

30

40

50

40

28.5

34

44.5

29

43.5

61

43.3

33.5

50

40

50

31

43

43

44.5

57

17.5

3.5

16.7

22

10

20

25

14

16

11

14

4.5

3.5

3.3

10

5

2.5

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

17

8.3

6.5

33.3

9.5

13

11.5

33.5

31

33.3

23

44.5

25

43

44.5

29

35

32

33.5

50

35

46

37

44.5

33.3

14

44.5

55.5

30.5

41

22

50

17

8.3

27

11

8.3

43

11

4

17.5

13.5

11

4

6.5

2

4

2

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Debt and equity issuance Securities trading

4

3.5

7

11

9

9

4

32

39

13

22

18

44.5

25

23

26

30

28.5

43

43

50

33.5

64

50

44.5

44

36

45

50

43

14

11

27

33.5

9

25

11

31

23

21

10

28.5

7

3.5

3

25

9

4

10

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

4

3

11

5

13.6

4.5

24

28

14

29

33.5

16.5

57

16

13.6

22

20

50

60

50

52

57

33.5

67

29

65

32

52

60

33

12

22

24

14

22

16.5

14

7

27.2

16.5

10

17

7

7

13.6

5

10

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


How do you rate the outlook for your bank over the next six months in each of the following business lines?*Transaction advisory

…with banks hopeful that greater economic stability will boost M&A and securities trading activity



4.2

3

7

11

6

28

32

37

35

44

56.6

41

39

32.5

33

9.6

19

14

15.5

16

1.6

5

3

6

1

Credit cards

Personal loans

Personal investment products

Personal real estate loans

Personal savings and deposits

Increase significantly Increase slightly Stay the same Decrease slightly Decrease significantly


Spring/Summer 2013

In retail banking, demand for savings and investment products remains strong…

How do you expect customer demand for retail products at your bank to change over the next six months?*


Comments: Retail customers continue to strengthen their personal balance sheets. As a result, demand for savings and deposit products is strong. However, low interest rates on savings and more stable equity markets have also led to a dramatic increase in demand for personal investment products, as retail customers seek higher yields. Banks also anticipate slightly increased demand for personal real estate lending. Mortgage growth will be strongest in Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Nordics. Mortgage growth may be stronger than expected in the UK, following the government’s recent introduction of the “Help to Buy” initiative to help first-time buyers access mortgage finance. Expectations for other credit products are broadly in line with our Autumn/Winter Barometer.

Autumn/Winter 2012

4

6

3

6

9

27

26

31

38

35

45

35

36

26

34

10

20

20

18

15

4

4

3

6

1

Credit cards

Personal loans


Personal real estate loans

Personal savings and deposits

11.1

4.4

12

12.5

7.7

5.9

5.9

6.8

7.1

16.7

30.4

36

25

38.5

60

55.6

41.2

29.4

36.8

50

42.9

55.6

52.2

32

25

38.5

20

33.3

37.3

47.1

39.5

35.7

28.6

11.1

8.7

16

12.5

15.4

20

11.1

15.7

11.8

13.7

7.1

28.6

5.6

4.4

4

25

5.9

3.2

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


…with Poland and Spain expecting the greatest growth in personal investment products…




5.3

4.4

8

7.7

4

11.8

6.2

14.3

12.5

47.4

34.8

56

40

61.5

40

44.4

46

35.3

43.5

35.7

12.5

47.4

34.8

20

10

30.8

60

33.3

40

29.4

33.2

28.6

25

21.7

16

40

22.2

10

23.5

16.1

21.4

50

4.4

10

1

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Personal savings and deposit products Personal real estate loans

11.1

9.5

15.4

14.3

17.3

11.8

11.2

21.4

38.9

28.6

24

22.2

46.2

14.3

51.9

11.8

34.6

35.7

42.9

33.3

57.1

40

44.4

23.1

14.3

23.1

52.9

32.5

28.6

11.1

16

11.1

15.4

100

42.9

5.8

17.7

15.4

14.3

57.1

5.6

4.8

20

22.2

14.3

1.9

5.9

6.4

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


4

10

25

5.9

3.2

15.4

27.8

13.6

48

50

30.8

25

35.3

29.4

32.3

38.5

25

61.1

59.1

24

20

46.2

25

12.5

56.9

23.5

41.3

15.4

37.5

5.6

22.7

12

23.1

50

62.5

7.8

29.4

18.5

30.8

37.5

5.6

4.6

12

20

11.8

4.8

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Personal loans

…but demand for non-mortgage lending remains subdued




Credit cards

4.8

4

4

11.8

4.3

7.7

12.5

29.4

14.3

36

30

46.2

40

28

17.7

27.8

30.8

12.5

64.7

76.2

32

70

38.5

66.7

60

64

41.2

56.7

53.9

62.5

28

15.4

33.3

4

23.5

9.6

7.7

12.5

5.9

4.8

5.9

1.6

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria



Banks anticipate increased demand for most corporate banking products and services…

How do you expect demand for corporate products at your bank to change over the next six months?*


3

2

5

5

6

16

24

29

39

41

52

50

44

40

34

20

15

18

13.5

14

9

9

4

2.5

5

Equity issuance/IPOs

M&A advisory

Hedging products

Corporate loans

Debt issuance


Comments: Banks anticipate the greatest demand in corporate lending and debt issuance. The growth in corporate lending is unsurprising as European corporations remain heavily dependent on bank debt for their financing needs, but bond issuance is also becoming an increasingly attractive form of finance for large corporations that are able to access the debt markets. Bond financing has become cheaper as central bank action has eased credit spreads. The outlook for equity issuance is more disappointing. Despite recent gains in equity markets, IPO valuations remain low and the high-profile failure of a number of large IPOs last year has discouraged new listings. Equity issuance is also typically more expensive than other forms of finance.

…especially corporate loans and debt issuance…




9.5

10

6.7

10

4.9

47.6

18.2

14.3

22.2

40

40

25

62.2

35

39.3

28.6

33.3

42.9

72.7

52.4

33.3

20

20

50

26.7

35

39.9

71.4

50

9.5

9.1

14.3

33.3

30

40

12.5

4.4

20

13.5

16.7

9.5

11.1

12.5

2.5

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Corporate loansDebt issuance

16.7

4.8

10

23.8

6.2

16.7

61.9

50

23.8

20

87.5

25

75

28.6

33.3

41.1

33.3

66.7

33.3

16.7

42.9

50

12.5

50

12.5

45.7

23.8

33.6

16.7

16.7

4.8

16.7

23.8

20

25

11.4

19.1

14.4

50

4.8

12.5

14.3

4.8

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

5

5.3

1.5

40

20

16.7

50

62.5

12.1

26.3

24.4

20

40

50

50

60

71.4

50

25

12.5

66.7

26.3

49.6

40

40

5

25

10

33.3

25

25

12.1

21.1

15.3

40

20

25

10

28.6

9.1

21.1

9.2

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

M&A advisoryHedging products

27.3

4.8

25

2.6

5.3

4.6

45.5

27.3

28.6

33.3

25

25

14.3

18.4

42.1

29.1

33.3

16.7

45.5

27.3

42.9

55.6

37.5

50

57.1

52.6

36.8

44.4

33.3

33.3

9.1

18.2

14.3

37.5

28.6

21.1

10.5

17.9

33.3

50

9.5

11.1

5.3

5.3

4

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria

Significant increase Slight increase Stay the same Slight decrease Significant decrease

…but demand for equity issuance will continue to decline outside of France, Switzerland and the UK




5

16.7

12.5

5.3

2.9

20

16.7

23.8

25

12.5

5.9

36.8

16.1

20

55

50

47.6

70

100

25

37.5

58.8

31.6

51.8

25

60

20

16.7

14.3

20

50

12.5

20.6

21.1

19.7

50

20

14.3

10

25

14.7

5.3

9.5

25

UK

Switzerland

Spain

Poland

Nordics

Netherlands

Italy

Germany

France

Europe

Belgium

Austria


Equity issuance/IPOs


Employment


Ongoing restructuring programs will lead to further job cuts…

Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*


Comments: Not surprisingly, banks expect job cuts to continue to play a significant role in their restructuring and cost reduction agendas, with 41% anticipating a fall in headcount over the next six months. The greatest job losses are expected in the Italy, Austria, Poland and the Nordics. Significant cuts are also expected in the UK. However, most of these job cuts will be part of redundancy programs already announced by banks.

3 20 36 32 9

3 17 34 37 8


Autumn/Winter 2012

Spring/Summer 2013

5.5

9.5

7.1

4

3

25

28

31

8

7.1

30

17

17

20

20

12.5

25

55

22

31

21.5

30

17

51

36

36

57

12.5

30.5

14

28

46

57.1

20

58

24

32

32

43

62.5

14

3

9.5

15

7.1

20

8

8

8

9

12.5

UKSwitzerland

SpainPolandNordics

NetherlandsItaly

GermanyFranceEurope

BelgiumAustria


Spring/Summer 2013

... with Italy and Austria facing the greatest headcount reductions

Over the next six months, how do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?*



11

6

9

3

4

3

9

15

26

6

22

15

31

14

19

17

17

27

37

37

33

48

15

23

40

41

34

33

44

55

37

26

44

22

55

28

34

37

37

50

56

9

11

11

15

15

8

4

8

UKSwitzerland

SpainPoland

NordicsNetherlands

ItalyGermany

FranceEurope

BelgiumAustria

Autumn/Winter 2012

5

7

12

18

28

28

30

33

37

34

32

5

24

19

12

34

23

-29

-25

7

-6

9

28

18

-1

14

54

13

11

27

54

11

58

30

10

20

39

19

-4

n/a

n/a

-17

1

0

7

15

-8

Other head office functions

Operations and IT

Compliance, risk and finance

Investment banking

Other

Asset management

Private banking and wealth management**

Retail and business banking

Corporate banking

Spring/Summer 2013

Back office functions will bear the brunt of job cuts, but banks are beginning to recruit in growth areas...


Comments: Redundancies will be centered on the back office, where banks are actively streamlining and automating processes to cut costs. However, the rate of job cuts in front office functions – including investment banking – has slowed. More positively, some growth areas expect to see new jobs created, including private banking and asset management across Europe, and corporate banking in the UK and Spain.

Autumn/Winter 2012

* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered that headcount would either increase or decrease. Where no data is shown, respondents thought headcount would stay the same.** Asset management, Private banking and Wealth management were combined in Autumn/Winter 2012, but these have been split for Spring/Summer 2013. Respondents were not asked about Compliance, risk and finance or Operations and IT in Autumn/Winter 2012.

■ Decrease ■ Increase

Net increase/decrease in headcount

Net increase/decrease in headcount

Which areas of the business do you expect headcount increases/decreases to take place?*

Germany

Belgium

Italy

France

Netherlands

…including private banking and asset management across Europe…



* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered that headcount would either increase or decrease. Where no data is shown, respondents thought headcount would stay the same.

11

32

11

16

21

11

68

10

20

10

50

50

Corporate banking



Asset management

Other

Investment banking


Operations and IT


50

33

17

50

67

60

40

10

20

40

10

20

40

33

33

50

17

17

17

17

13

38

25

25

38

25

50

50

25

25

25

50

25

25

33

33

33

33

Austria

33

33

17

17

50

33

50

100

100

100

Corporate banking



Asset management

Other

Investment banking


Operations and IT



…and corporate banking in the Spain and the UK.



* Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents who answered that headcount would either increase or decrease. Where no data is shown, respondents thought headcount would stay the same.

Nordics

UK

33

22

33

22

33

44

50

50

50

50

Corporate banking



Asset management

Other

Investment banking


Operations and IT


25

31

6

25

38

13

63

50

64

27

27

45

36

36

27

18

18

Poland

25

38

13

13

25

38

100

Spain

17

42

8

33

8

8

17

25

54

62

62

38

15

23

8

8

8

Switzerland

20

40

40

20

20

40

25

25

25

13

13

25

38

Corporate banking



Asset management

Other

Investment banking


Operations and IT




Contacts

Contacts

For more information on how we can help, please contact our team.

EMEIA:

Robert Cubbage+44 20 7951 [email protected]

Steven Lewis+44 20 7951 [email protected]

Austria:

Friedrich Hief+43 1 21170 [email protected]

Belgium:

Jean-François Hubin+ 32 2 774 [email protected]


France:

Luc Valverde+33 1 46 93 63 [email protected]

Germany:

Dirk Müller-Tronnier+ 49 6196 996 [email protected]

Italy:

Massimo Testa+39 02 7221 [email protected]

Netherlands:

Wouter Smit+31 88 407 [email protected]

Nordics:

Lars Weigl+46 8 520 590 [email protected]

Poland:

Iwona Kozera+48 22 557 [email protected]

Spain:

José Carlos Hernández Barrasús+34 91 572 [email protected]

Switzerland:

Philippe Zimmermann+41 58 286 32 [email protected]

UK:

Omar Ali+44 20 7951 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]













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Documents

EBB Spring Summer 2013 FINAL - Building a better …FILE/EBB_Spring_Summer_2013.pdfComposition of the survey sample by bank type Page 4 European Banking Barometer –Spring/Summer