INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE

Robots friends ornightmare

Robots in the spotlightof the big technologycompanies

ROBOTSHOW ROBOTICS WILL CHANGE OUR LIVES

02

01

04

03INFOGRAPHIC

The evolution of Robots

Robot fever

05INTERVIEW

ldquoRobots arent a threat

and theyre not going to

replace peoplerdquo

Robots friendsor nightmare

01

China is set to lead the global production of

robots followed by Europe and USA But the

debate over the potential benefits and risks of

humanoids is already raging ( )

The robotics revolution is supposed to come in 2030

but you wont need to wait that long to see signs of

coexistence between humans and robots In two years

China will lead global robot production churning out

close to 400000 units well ahead of the 340000 that

Europe is expected to produce and the 300000 set to

be built in the United States according to figures

from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR)

Robots friendsor nightmare

01

China is set to lead the global production of

robots followed by Europe and USA But the

debate over the potential benefits and risks of

humanoids is already raging ( )

The robotics revolution is supposed to come in 2030

but you wont need to wait that long to see signs of

coexistence between humans and robots In two years

China will lead global robot production churning out

close to 400000 units well ahead of the 340000 that

Europe is expected to produce and the 300000 set to

be built in the United States according to figures

from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR)

Will robots become mans best friend or his nightmare This is the

question that is always raised whenever we see a boom in robotics

and all sorts of answers are always proffered According to the

scientist Stephen Hawkinghellip he cautioned in this interview for the

BBC

The physicist has been

warning of the risks inherent

in artificial intelligence for

years and this June he

presented a letter in Buenos

Aires that rallied against the

development of so called killer

robots The open letter

signed also by Apple co-

founder Steve Wozniak

founder of Tesla and co-

creator of PayPal Elon Musk

the linguist Noam Chomsky

and Demis Hassabis Chief

Executive of the Google

artificial intelligence firm

stated the concerns harbored

by thousands of scientists

due to the development of

autonomous military robots

capable of operating without

human intervention

Stephen Hawking

ldquoRobots represent a threat to humanity Humans who are limited by slowbiological evolution couldnt compete and would be superseded

ldquo

ldquoIt is only a matter of time

before the weapons end up in

the hands of terrorists and

warlords () autonomous

weapons have been described

as the third revolution in

warfare after gunpowder and

nuclear arms () autonomous

weapons are ideal for tasks

such as assassinations

destabilizing nations subduing

populations and selectively

killing a particular ethnic group

() Starting a military AI arms

race is a bad idea warns the

letter

Although Hawking is not

entirely against humanoids and

admits that the potential

benefits could be enormous

he cautions that current robot

development is channeled

more toward the destruction of

people ldquoArtificial intelligence

could serve to eradicate war

disease and poverty from the

world However we are seeing

priority given to investments

that will usher in an arms racerdquo

he said

Leaving aside military purposes

and concentrating instead on

industrial uses this report from

the Pew Research Center

based on interviews with

around 2000 tech experts

scientists and academics

found that half of those

surveyed believe that

machines will perform much of

the tasks now done by

humans while the other half

expect robots to create more

jobs The report concluded

that 2025 will be the year in

which robots play a very

significant role in

peoples lives A more recent

study found that humanoids

would take away 18 million

jobs in Germany within 20

years

Rodolphe Gelin Director of Aldebaran Robots is more

optimistic He points out that humanoids have

a heart and will represent the backbone of smart

homes controlling lighting temperature cleaning and

food providing the chief interface for operating

electronic appliances

Aldebarans robots are social and programmed to learn

humans habits and intervene when necessary Their

artificial intelligence allows them to interact with people

via voice and even recognize emotions According to

Gelin the fears that robots arouse are unjustified Like

any object or technology developed by man robots

could pose a threat to humanity Fire cars electricity

nuclear energy and even writing can do both good and

bad for humanity It all depends on what you do with it

Robots intrinsically do not pose a danger to humanity

The human robot ( )

Instead he believes ldquorobots will

build a better future They will

bring out the best in people

There are fears such as of a

spontaneous robot rebellion or

robots being put to bad use as

a result of piracy But such

problems are not specific to

robots they apply to all smart

objects with which we interact

( ) Computer researchers

specialists in IT security and

even attorneys are working to

resolve such problems even

before we begin living with

robots It is very important that

everyone understand the

foundations of robots Fear is

often born of ignorance If

every child is made familiar

with robots just as they are

taught to use the Internet

properly they will dominate

robotics And the future of

robotics will be in good hands

those of the people he

concludes

In 1942 science-fiction acclaimed writer and scientific dissemination

essayist Isaac Asimov established in his short story Runaround the Three

Laws of Robotics that every robot should be programmed to respect

The Three Laws of Robotics

A robot must protect

its own existence as

long as such

protection does not

conflict with the First

or Second Laws

A robot may not injure

a human being or

through inaction allow

a human being to

come to harm

A robot must obey the

orders given it by

human beings except

where such orders

would conflict with the

First Law

These laws were

complemented with the

addition of the Zeroth

Law that appeared on

Asimovs work The

Bicentennial Man

stating A robot may not

harm humanity or by

inaction allow humanity

to come to harm

In 2011 the most prominent engineering organizations in the United Kingdom published five ethical

principles of robotics for robot designers and engineers to comply with

Robots should not be

designed solely or

primarily to kill or harm

humans

Robots are manufactured

artefacts They should

not be designed in a

deceptive way to exploit

vulnerable users instead

their machine nature

should be transparent

Humans not robots

are responsible agents

Robots are tools

designed to achieve

human goals

Robots are products

They should be

designed using

processes which assure

their safety and

security

The person with legal

responsibility for a

robot should be

attributed

Robots in the spotlightof the big technologycompanies

02

Artificial intelligence projects have moved $20 billion in the last

five years An example of this trend is Google which has bought a

dozen robotics companies in just three years ( )

Fad or serious commitment

Robotics is attractive to large

companies and what appeared

to be a whim of their CEOs is

emerging as one of the sectors

to track in the coming years

2013 was the year that

Google placed its focus - and

money - on robotics with the

acquisition of numerous

companies It finished the year

by purchasing Boston

Dynamics one of the market

leaders which provides

services to the Pentagon and

has a star among its ranks

Cheetah robot which is faster

than Usain Bolt

Googles obsession with robots

has not diminished in recent

years In 2014 it bought the

British company specializing in

artificial intelligence DeepMind

Technologies for $400 million

In 2015 one of the latest

operations of the Mountain

View company in the field of

industrial robotics was the

agreement with the American

pharmaceutical group Johnson

amp Johnson to manufacture

surgical robots

The advantages for patients of

surgeries performed by robots

controlled by doctors are

high-precision and less-invasive

operations

Human errors cause between

44000 and 98000 patient

deaths annually in the United

States according to the MRI

Technology School

Although Google seems to be

more directed toward

industrial robotics it doesnt

want to leave out the social

aspect

At mid-year it registered the

Methods and systems for

robot personality

development patent to

customize the robots that may

be programmed to take on

the personality of a person

from the real world (such as

user behavior a deceased

loved one or a celebrity) and

take on the character traits of

people emulated by a robot

That personality could be

transferred from one robot to

another or shared among

several through cloud-based

computing This way a user

could travel to another city and

download the personality of his

or her own home robot into a

robot based in the other

location Robotic personality

would thus become

something transportable

and transferablerdquo ( )

Projects related to artificial

intelligence have accounted for

almost $20 billion dollars

(around 18 billion euros) since

2009 but some have come

with much controversy Several

intellectuals and scientists

warned against so-called killer

robotsrdquo Stephen Hawking at

the head Bill Gates was very

concerned about the threat of

artificial intelligence

Although some people are not

as critical as informed in this

article published in El Paiacutes that

includes the reflections of the

researcher at the University of

Toronto Hector Levesque

ldquoTodays computers are

downright stupid

For example if you ask Joan

thanked Susan for all the help

she had given Who gave the

help Joan or Susan Google

cant answer that question

Thats the ghost missing from

the machine common sense

Sadly much of the research on

artificial intelligence conducted

these days is content with

systems that only read massive

amounts of data without any

sense These are the systems

that should scare us Those

that are autonomous but have

no common sense

Facebook is confident ( ) in

the common sense of robots

and tests conducted by the

laboratory developing new

intelligence led by the French

researcher LeCun The US

company hired the renowned

scientist whose mission is to

produce software with the

language skills and common

sense necessary to maintain a

basic conversation

Instead of having to communicate with machines

by pressing buttons or entering carefully-selected

search terms we could say what we want as if we

were talking to another person Our relationship

with the digital world will completely change

through intelligent agents with which you can

interact he predicts He believes that deep

learning can produce software that understands

our sentences and is able to respond with

appropriate answers clarifying questions or

making their own suggestions as noted in this

report in Technology Review

Both Facebook and Google seem to be clear that

the future is in the hands of robots provided they

are always controlled by humans

The evolution of robots

03INFOGRAPHIC

The enormous progress being made in robotics has seenjobs in some industries being automated which has sparked a debate on whether robots might eventuallyreplace humans

Share on Pinterest

200

175

150

100

75

50

25

0

The new

Robots

COMPANYRethink Robotics

HEIGHT 190 cm

Designed to support

programming and provide

flexibility to small

manufacturers

COMPANY Boston

Dinamics Google

HEIGHT 188 cm

The DRC workhorse used

by US teams with a

range of software

COMPANY Willow

Garage

HEIGHT 165 cm

An advanced personal service

robot used chiefly in

laboratories

200

175

150

100

75

50

25

0

COMPANY Google

HEIGHT 146 cm

Designed to complete tasks

with its hands supported

by extensive Japanese

expertise in humanoid

robots

COMPANY KUKA

HEIGHT 203 cm

Industrial robots used in

the worlds most

advanced factories

COMPANY Kaist

HEIGHT 130 cm

Developed as a platform

for a range of research

projects

200

175

150

100

75

50

25

0

COMPANY NASA - JPL

HEIGHT 120 - 170 cm

An experimental robot with

multiple use limbs built

based on identical tracking

COMPANY Honda

HEIGHT 120 cm

The most recent Honda

creation is used for

practical applications

COMPANY Aethon

HEIGHT 120 cm

Automated hauler and

transport robot without

charisma used in hospitals

200

175

150

100

75

50

25

0

COMPANY Unbounded

Robotics

HEIGHT 97 cm

A one-armed robot capable

of performing a series of

tasks

COMPANY iRobot

HEIGHT 200 cm

A robot that demonstrated

its value helping to defuse

improvised explosive

devices in Iraq and

Afghanistan

COMPANY AIST

HEIGHT 57 cm

Provides company to

senior citizens with

therapeutic and social

benefits

200

175

150

100

75

50

25

0

COMPANY iRobot

HEIGHT 35 cm

The worlds most popular cleaning

robot since 2002

COMPANY DJI

HEIGHT 35 cm

Able to fly to any location using a system

of cameras opening new markets and

attracting new fans

1200000

1000000

932000

750000

605000

454000

2014

2010

2005

2002

1995

1990

The global robotics industry

In 2013 there was one robot for every 5000 workers

Robots in numbers

454000

Robot density

The number of robotic workers is growing For example in Japan for every

1000 workers there are 34 industrial robots performing similar tasks

Other

97

Optics

9

Food

15

Communication

25

Metal

37

Non-specific

25

Automotive

331

Electricity

99

Chemistry

94

Machinery

43

July 2015 The Henn Na hotel

or ldquoWeird Hotelrdquo has opened

The news is in all of around the

world It is the first

establishment where robots

attend to guests It costs 66

euros to stay the night

surrounded by androids who

although cannot make the bed

do not ask for a wage and can

work without a break seven

days a week 24 hours a day

Henn Na is a good example of

robot fever in Japan The

country one of the leading

countries in terms of robots

continues to focus on this

technology A month ahead of

the opening of the ldquoWeird

Hotelrdquo the robot called Pepper

had sold out just one minute

after it went up for sale Its

price 1500 euros did not

stop the madness over this

Robot fever

04Around 320 million workers could be replaced by robots everywhere

in the world There is a proliferation of studies that analyze the

economic impact of robots which could surpass 17 trillion dollars

by 2025 in the health manufacturing and services sectors among

others ( )

small android --120 centimeters

tall weighing 28 kilos and a

14-hour battery-- which can

interpret emotions and interact

with people

Depending on the emotion at

the time Pepper talks more

loudly or sighs relaxes around

people it knows is pleased

when it receives a compliment

or is frightened when the lights

go out explain its creators On

top of the initial price it costs

177 euros a month for three

years to connect to the cloud

which allows Pepper to keep

up its learning with the rest of

the Peppers on the market

This pushes its price up to a

grand total of 8000 euros

Although it was initially

designed with families in

mind Pepper can also attend

to clients at Japanese

establishments The country

which has an unemployment

rate of 33 is struggling to

alleviate the aging of its

population Japan has around

127 million people Out of

them only 128 are less than

14 years old The Japanese

government estimates that by

2060 the population will total

86 million people 40 over

65 years old That is why it is

looking to robots to make up

for the lack of workforce

( )

The economic

impact of robots

The robot industry and

production automation

technology rose by 144

compared to 2014 although

not only Japan is experiencing

a robot revolution A study by

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

reveals that robots will replace

factory workers at a faster rate

than expected over the next

decade bringing labor costs

down by 16 Investment in

robots will rise by 10 a year

in the 25 main exporting

countries by 2025 ( )

ldquoConnected and capable of

resolving complex problems

the new generation of robots

will be able to take on 25 of

automated tasks versus the

10 that traditional robots

currently performrdquo according

to the study which goes on to

say that over the next 10 years

investment in robots will total

60000 million euros

compared to 25000 million

this year

Using robots will bring down

labor costs by 33 in South

Korea 25 in Japan 24 in

Canadaand 22 in the United

States and Taiwan Just 10 of

jobs that can be automated are

currently performed by robots

In 2025 machines will

account for more than 23 of

these job posts according to

forecasts by Boston Consulting

Regarding their efficiency

another study ldquoThe robots are

comingrdquo by Deloitte highlights

that robots have an error

margin of 002 and adds that

they can perform any rule-

based repetitive process

subject to human error with

peak workloads that require

night shifts or overtime and are

not essential for the company

According to Deloitte ldquothe

reality is that automation and

robots lower costs and are

quick to implement because it

only takes two to four weeks to

automate any processrdquo Deloitte

explains that in the UK a robot

costs a ninth of the total cost

of an employee

McKinsey estimates that the

invasion of robots will have an

economic impact of 17-45

trillion dollars by 2025 in

sectors such as health

manufacturing and services

and that in the medium-term

some 320 million workers could

be replaced by robots

everywhere in the world The

robot revolution seems to be a

serious thing this time

Robots arent a threat and theyre not going to replace people

05INTERVIEW

Luis Moreno professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid emphasizes that although countriesare going to demand more robots it wont result in a process for replacing people ( )

Luis Moreno robotics expert

and professor at the Carlos III

University in Madrid works on

developing exoskeletons for

restoration manipulating

artificial hands to give them a

human sensitivity and on

differentautonomous systems

so as robots can calculate

routes avoid walls and

obstacles and even find paths

on Mars

Whats the challenge of

robotics ( )

There are quite a few

challenges The old mobile

robotics vehicles with sensors

that move with a certain

understanding of the

environment and avoid

obstacles is going to be

applied in two fields the

vehicles field (Google) and

space exploration which is a

less visible field

Another field is the service

robot or the so-called social

robots They dont have a great

ability to handle things but

they have many qualities for

social relationships Theyre

able to synthesize speech and

understand part of what is

being said with obvious

limitations This is reaching

hospitals for Alzheimer patients

and hotels and a lot of work is

being put into the exoskeleton

or humanoid part

What do you think about

Google purchasing dozens of

robotics companies over the

last few years

Googles purchase sounds

amazing because its Google

but all the technology thats

currently on the market such

as the automatic parking of

cars is what robotics

laboratories were doing in the

80sGoogles case is highly

publicized but to give you an

example years ago we had a

car in Madrid that came down

from the mountain to the city

on its own The technology was

already mature and Google

hasnt done any marvelous

research although whats being

done isnt at all bad as its not

easy to put this technology on

the market

What problems is robotics

facing

Robotics is a bank of integration

for any technology Its facing

energy problems and actuator

problemsWe cant develop

robots that are more

sophisticated or that have more

human skills because the

actuators we have are still

engines mainly electric

Another challenge is

understanding situations

Making a robot understand

Another huge problem we are

facing is how to teach them

Programming a robots activity

is very complicated and

nowadays you pretty much

need an engineer to be with it

continuously and every

laboratory around the world is

trying to teach robots Learning

things is a challenge although

we mustnt forget about the

sensory part

SERIE INNOVATION TRENDS middot SEPTIEMBRE 2015 middot wwwcentrodeinnovacionbbvacom

At present we arent able to

develop anything equivalent to

a human hand in terms of

ability sensitivity and strength

Sensors have their limitations

for example robots can only

see between 7 and 8 meters of

volumetric image

Are robots going to replace

people in day-to-day jobs ( )

No The most robotic countries

are the richest countries and

those that have the highest

levels of employment Japan

Korea and the United States for

example dont use robots to

replace people and they arent

interested in doing so Robots

are expensive very expensive

and they are used to improve

product quality The car

industry didnt introduce robots

to

replace people possibly

because robots are much more

expensive However robots can

weld with a very high precision

Theyre not going to replace

people The most automated

countries tend to produce

products with a higher quality

they sell more products around

the world and therefore have

more wealth and employment

Thats the reality

So robots arent a threat

I donrsquot think so Countries are

going to demand more robots

This is the case for example of

Japan with social robots They

dont replace anyone they

accompany patients they

check their health they remind

them to take their medication

they chat to each other They

dont replace anyone because

no one else is doing that

Exoskeletons arent going to fire

anyone The person who gives

them the job will be in

chargeThe feeling of threat

isnt real right now

China

What country will lead

robotization over the next few

years

China will become robotic but

not to fire people It will do so

because many of its products

arent of a very high quality

China will become more clearly

robotic over the next twenty

years It has an industry that

needs to produce higher

quality It cant continue to just

sell cheap products It will have

to become roboticsince human

hands cant assemble products

with a high quality

And how do you see Europe

Germany is very robotic and

France Italy and Spain have

good levels especially in certain

industries such as cars and

electronics Theyre not doing

badly at all

Latin America

Latin America still doesnt have

a huge manufacturing industry

which is where robotics come

in The level is lower due to the

type of industry and they dont

have a high need

What do you think about the

controversy of the so-called

killer robots

Every technology thats

developed around the world has

a double use Drones dont

shoot by themselvesBehind

each robot is a person thats

programming its movements

and actions Vaccinations can

be used to kill or cure

Everything not just robots can

be used in one way or another

for good or for bad

BBVA Innovation Center creates

the Innovation Trends Series

to keep you updated with

cutting edge innovation trends

and their appliance to your

everyday life In this papers you

will find all key facts analysis

case studies interviews with

experts and infographics to

visualize the data that each and

every trend describes

SERIEINNOVATIONTRENDS

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