ECG - Overview and perspectives of the automotive logistic sector - March 2010
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The European Outbound Vehicle Logistics Sector Financing the Recovery: A Comprehensive Analysis in Support of Sustainable Growth March 2010 Sole author: Massimiliano Fuccio
ECG - Overview and perspectives of the automotive logistic sector - March 2010
1. The European Outbound Vehicle Logistics Sector Financing the
Recovery: A Comprehensive Analysis in Support of Sustainable
Growth
2. THE EUROPEAN OUTBOUND VEHICLE LOGISTICS SECTOR: A WORTHY
CASE FOR RECONSIDERATION. 1
3. 2
4. Executive summary ECG - The Association of European Vehicle
Logistics in brief European automotive market: overview European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview 3 European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview European automotive
outbound logistics sector: potential Appendix:
5. . . Note: this growth rate is not fully reliable because
HCV/B and LCV/B 2009 registration figures were available only for
the first 11 months 4 . .
13. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o 12 . .. .. . o
o
14. 13 Source: ECG 1) S&P, Moodys and Fitch
15. 14 ECG highlights how the European Automotive Outbound
Logistics Sector merits the confidence of the International Banking
Sector as it looks to fund new investments The European Automotive
Outbound Logistics Sector is more stable than the Automotive
Industry but its significant growth potential may remain unrealised
unless the banking system provides the necessary financing
16. Executive summary ECG - The Association of European Vehicle
Logistics in brief European automotive market: overview European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview 15 European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview European automotive
outbound logistics sector: potential Appendix:
17. o o o o o 16 o o
18. 17
19. 18 Three more Countries have applied for EU membership:
Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
2)EU15: Member Countries in the European Union prior to the
accession of ten candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
20. Executive summary ECG - The Association of European Vehicle
Logistics in brief European automotive market: overview European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview 19 European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview European automotive
outbound logistics sector: potential Appendix Economic scenario and
forecasts for ECG Countries
21. o o 20 o o o o o o o o
22. 21 0
23. 22
24. 23 . . . . . .
25. . . Note: this growth rate is not fully reliable because
HCV/B and LCV/B 2009 registration figures were available only for
the first 11 months 24 . .
26. 25
27. 26
28. 27
29. 28
30. 29
31. 30
32. 31
33. 32 Source: Credit Suisse, ECG
34. 33 1) Western European
35. 34
36. 35 Three more Countries have applied for EU membership:
Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
37. 36
38. Car Density vs. GDP in 2008 (vs. Average Park Age) 37
Source: EIU, J.D. Power, Global Insight, Eurostat, Roland
Berger
39. 38
40. 39
41. 40 Source: Credit Suisse, ECG, IMI 1) IMI Bank expectations
at 12/09 2) 3yrs IRS =2,14% and Euribor = 1,01% at 10/12/09 3) LTV:
Loan to value = % of the cost of the good bought that has been
financed
42. 41 >
43. 42
44. 43 Source: Credit Suisse, ECG 1) LTV: Loan to value = % of
the cost of the good bought that has been financed 2) IMI Bank
expectations at 12/09
45. 44
46. 45 1) Western European
47. 46 1) Western European
48. o 47 o o
49. 48 1) Western European
50. Executive summary ECG - The Association of European Vehicle
Logistics in brief European automotive market: overview European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview 49 European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview European automotive
outbound logistics sector: potential Appendix:
51. 50
52. 51
53. The automotive industry has experienced its strongest
market decline since the early 1990s, but the European Outbound
Automotive Logistics sector is also Representing 34% of the
accumulated turnover of the 35 ECG members incorporated in Europe 8
that published turnover data Representing 45% of the accumulated
turnover of the 33 ECG members incorporated in Europe 8 that
published turnover data 52 sector is also suffering Germany is the
main market and the only vibrant market 1) Europe 8 2) Spending
(cost) associated with the transport and distribution of passenger
vehicles from point of manufacture to arrival at the dealer,
including technical services ( finishing, modifications etc
62. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o 61 . .. .. . o
o
63. 62
64. Executive summary ECG - The Association of European Vehicle
Logistics in brief European automotive market: overview European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview 63 European
automotive outbound logistics market: overview European automotive
outbound logistics sector: potential Appendix:
65. The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is part
of the automotive Industry 64 The European Automotive Outbound
Logistics Sector is more stable and predictable than the Automotive
Industry but its growth potential may remain unrealised unless the
banking system provides the necessary financing generally
66. 65 Source: ECG 1) S&P, Moodys and Fitch
67. 66 Source: ECG, European Manufacturers 2008 Financial
Statements Divisional breakdowns 1) Eliminations are not included
2) Approximate allocation as Fiat Group Highlights by Sector
section does not include Financial Services as a sector
68. o 67 o o
69. 68
70. Remarkably, demand for Used Cars in Western Europe has been
more stable than demand for New Cars 69 o o 1) Europe 7
71. As used car sales figures are not readily available and it
is often difficult to track private transactions, expectations for
the period from 2008 to 2012 have been developed 70 have been
developed using as a predictor the YoY GDP growth rate Italy and UK
2008 data have been the only exceptions since public data were
already available 1) Western European
72. The additional scrap demand satisfied by Falling used car
prices as a direct result of scrap New and used car sales as an
inextricably linked 71 demand satisfied by new car sales in 2009
has meant less demand for used cars 1) Western European result of
scrap incentives Reducing consumer desire to buy a new car
inextricably linked system supply and demand in one market have a
direct effect on the other
78. 77 Source: ECG together with SMI, DLA and EBS (base on the
results of the 2005 survey to European Manufacturers, National
Distributors, Dealers, and Logistics Companies in the most
important European automotive markets [France, Germany, Italy and
UK]) 1) Europe 4