ISU Abstracts

PROJECT SPACE VISION

(11)213

P. Edin, A Baker, M. Breitfelhxr, S. Debouzy, P. Fatelnig, J. Figa, P. Gilson, J. Norstrom, R. Postema, F. Spiero, A Vignelles. All Authors c/o ESTEC-TSM, PB 299,220O AG Noordwijk, The Netherlands.

Project Space Vision attempts to document the visions of a new generation of international space professionals for the long-term future of space activities. This voluntary effort was initiated as an independent reqxmse f?orn the young space community to an invitation to provide direct input to the Long Term Space Policy Committee of the European Space Agency.

By using modern communications tools in the form of the Internet, the World Wide Web and the ISUnet, calls for contributions could reach several thousands of potential contributors within a few weeks time. Jn return, contributions in the form of survey responses and concise papers were received internationally from young professionals within space agencies, space industry, universities and other organisations.

The dominating fundamental reasons for future space activities were found in the areas of services to huma&md, scientitic progress and exploration. Main perceived barriers were lack of public and political support and high cost of access to space. Other main results include drastic overestimates by the contributors regarding the relative magnitude of spending on space activities.

This paper describes the specifics of Project Space Vision and provides an analysis of the fundamental motivations for space activities in our generation as seen by the reached representatives of an emerging space community. The ideas, proposals and suggestions for future space activities are condensed into five specific areas of recommendations followed by general conclusions. Final recommendations are express4 in the form of a space policy in three steps, supported by the general spirit of the contributors.

ECOM - ESA’s COST MODELLING

vq - European Space Agency - Cost Analysis Division Keplerlaan 1 - 2200 AG Noordwijk - The Netherlands

ESA, as an international procurement agency dealing with more than 1200 companies at the same time, must have the ability to assess the price for a product independently from other sources. Especially in the today’s environment of flat or even declining budgets ESA has to ensure the value of the contributions coming from their member states. The paper presents asoftware tool developed by the Cost Analysis Division of ESTEUESA, which ftis exactly the need for precise and retracable cost estimates for space business projects and components. As an introduction the driving needs and basic cost estimation techniques are presented. ECOM was conceived as a tool for independent price assessment and cost estimation. The gem within ECOM is the database, it contains historical data from ESA projects. The items are grouped in classes and the available data comprises the cost breakdown and the technical description, which are the main performance parameter, number of models, design status and beside the comments, also pictures are available. On the estimate part of ECOM it features all the well-known cost estimation techniques, like estimating using analogy, cost estimating relationship, parametric cost mode//&g, and includes links to commercial products (PCM, Price-H) as well. ECOM is capable of escalating for any given economical condition and any member state. To prepare reliable prize estimates, the cost analysts need the product tree, the work-package description, the technical description and the HW-matrix. The paper shows examples for the important steps of producing an estimate and is enhanced with authentical screen prints. ECOM is used by the Cost Analysis Division as an expert tool for professional cost estimation for space business projects.