ECONOMIC ANALYSIS STUDY - ntrs.nasa.gov

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SPACE TUG ECONOMIC

ANALYSIS STUDY NAS 8-27709

- -

FINAL REPORT DR MA-04

VOLUME I I I : COST ESTIMATES

Prepared for

National Aeronautics & Space Administration

George C. Marshall Space Flight Center

Lockheed Missiles & Space Company, Inc.

Sunnyvale, California

and Mathemotica Inc.

Princeton, New Jersey

SPACE TUG

ECONOM I C ANALY S I S STUDY

FINAL REPORT

D R MA-04

May 1972

VOLUME Ill: COST ESTIMATES

Prepared For

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Mernhall Space Flight Center

Prepared By

Lockheed Missiles & Space Company, Inc.,

Sunnyvale, California

a nd

Mathematica, Inc . Princeton, New Jersey

Lockheed Missiles $ S ce Company, Inc . , t? Sunnyvale, alifornia

Other key team members included:

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol 111

FOREWORD

This report summarizes work accomplished under the Space Tug Economic Analysis

Study on Contract NAS8-27709. This study was performed for the NASA Marshall

Space Flight Center by Lockheed Missiles & Space Company, Jnc. of Sunnyvale,

California, and Mathematica, Inc. of Princeton, New Jersey. The period of tech-

nical performance was nine months, starting July 26, 1971.

The NASA Contracting Officer's Representatives for this program were Lieutenant

Commander William C. Stilwell (USN) and Mr. Richard L. Klan. The study team

was led by Mr. Charles V. Hopkins of Lockheed and Dr. Edward Greenblat of

Mathematica. Task leaders on the Lockheed team were as follows:

John P. Skratt - Data Integration and Interpretation

William T. Eaton - Payload Data and Payload Effects Analysis

Richard T. Parmley - Tug Definition

Anthony G. Tuffo - Data Mechanization and Evaluation

Zoe A. Taulbee - Computer Programming

Jolanta B. Forsyth - Payload Costs and Benefits; Tug Cost Model

Kenneth J. Lush - Program Costing Logic

This report is divided into three volumes as follows:

r Volume I - Executive Summary

Volume 11 - Tug Concepts Analysis

r Volume 111 - Cost Estimates

Volume 111 contains two important elements of the study data base, namely the Tug

8 costs and the entire payload data base. In addition to costs, the payload data includee

weight, sizes, orbital parameters, and schedulee.

1 LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

Chapter

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

1 INTRODUCTION

2 GUIDELINES AND ASSUMPTIONS

Costing Assumptions

Work Breakdown Structure

3 ORBIT INJECTION STAGES

Approach

OIS Cost Data

Agena

Large Tank Agena (LTA)

Centaur

Growth Tank Centaur

Funding Requirements

4 REUSABLE SPACE TUGS

Approach

RDT&E Costs

Single-Stage L 0 2 / L ~ 2 Tug RDT&E Costs

Single-Stage LF2/LH2 Tug RDTLF Costs

Single-Stage FLOX/CH~ Tug RDTBE Costs

&age-and-One-Half L O ~ / L H ~ Tug RDTBE Costa

Investment Costs

L02/LH2 Single- Stage Tug Investment Costa

LF2/LH2 Single-Stage Tug Inwstment Costa

l?LOX/CH4 Single-Stage Tug Investment Costa

L02/LH2 Stage-and-One-Half Tug Investment Costs

iii

/ LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

iii

1- 1

2-1

2- 1

2- 1

3- 1

3- 1

3-2

3-2

3-4

3- 5

3- 8

3- 9

4- 1

4- 1

4-3

4-4

4- 11

4- 17

4-23

4-26

4-27

4-34

4-40

4-46

Chapter

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol nI

Operations Costs

L02/LH2 Single-Stage Tug Operations Costs

LF2/LH2 Single-Stage Tug Operations Costs

FLOX/CH~ Single-Stage Tug Operations Costs

L O ~ / L H ~ Stage- and-One-Half Tug Operations Costs

Funding Requirements

PAYLOAD COSTS AND CHARACTERISTICS

Approach

Payload Data

iv

I LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

LMSC- Dl53408 VOI m

ILLUSTRATIONS

Figure

Work Breakdown Structure 2-2

Typical Unit Cost vs Rate Curve for Agena OIS 3- 3

Typical Centaur OIS Recurring Cost vs I,:.* Curve 3-7

Large Tank Agena (OIS) Funding Requirements 3- 10

Parametric RLYP&E Costs for L O ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage, Growd-Based Tugs

Parametric Avionics, Power and Structure RDT&E Costs, L 0 2 / ~ ~ 2 Single-Stage, Ground- Based Tugs 4- 8

Parametric Propulsion RDT&E Costs, L02/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4- 9

Parametric Floating-Item RDT&E Costs, L02/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4- 10

Parametric RIYP&E Costs for L F ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage, Ground- Based Tugs 4- 13

Parametric Avionics, Power and Structures RDT&E Costs, LF2/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4- 14

Parametric Propulsion RDTOE Costs, L F ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage Ground-Based Tugs 4-15

Parametric Floating-Item RDT&E Costs, LF2/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4- 16

Parametric RDT&E Costs for FLOX/CH~ Single-Stage, Ground- Based Tugs 4- 19

Parametric Avionics, Power and Structures RM'&E Costs, ' FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4-20

Parametric Propulsion RDT&E Costs, FLOWCH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4-21

Parametric Floating-Item RDTOE Costs, FLOX/CH~ Slngle-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs 4-22

Parametric RDT&E Costs for L 0 2 / ~ H 2 Drop Tanks 4-25

Parametric First-Unit Costa for Reusable Versions of L02/LH2 Single-Stage Tugs 4-30

Parametric First-Unit Costs for Expendable Versions of LO^ / L H ~ Single-Stage Tugs 4-31

v

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

Figure

4- l f i Parametric Investment Costs for Reusable Versions of L 0 2 / L ~ 2 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric Investment Costs for Expendable Versions of L02/LH2 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric First-Unit Costs for Reusable Versions of Lf 2 / ~ ~ 2 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric First-Unit Costs for Expendable Versions nf L F 2 / ~ H 2 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric Investment Costs for Reusable Versions of LF2/LH2 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric Lnvestment Costs for Expendable Versions of L F ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric First-Unit Costs for Reusable Versions of FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric First-Unit Costs for Expendable Vcrsions of FLOX/cH4 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric Investment Costs for Reusable Versions of FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage Tugs

Parametric Investment Costs for Expendable Versions of FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage Tugs

parametric First-Unit Cost for L O ~ / L H ~ Drop Tanks

Parametric Investment Costa for L O ~ / L H ~ Drop Tanks

Parametric Follow-on Spares Costs for Reusable L02/LH2 Tugs Parametric Follow-on Spares Costs for Expendable L02/LH2 Tugs

Parametric Operations Costs for Reusable L O ~ / L H ~ Tugs

Parametric Operations Costs for Expendable L02/LH2 Tugs

Parametric Follow-on Spares Costs for Reuaable L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs

Parametric Follow-on Spares Costa for Expendable L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs

Parametric Operations Costs for Reusable L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs

Parametric Operations Costa for Expendable L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs

Parametric Follow-on Spares Costs for Reusable FLOX/CH4 Tugs

v i


Figure Page

4-37 Parametric Follow-on Spares Costa for Expendable FLOX/CH, Tugs 4- 67

4-38 Parametric Operations Costs for Reusable FLOX/CH4 Tugs 4-68

4-39 Parnmetric Operations Costa for Expendable FLOX/CH4 Tugs 4-69

4- 40 Reusable Tug (50.2K) L O ~ / L H ~ Funding Requirements 4-73

vii

{ LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

TABLES

Table

Average Recurring Production Cost for the Agena OIS 2-2

RDTOE Cost for LO~/LH? Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 36.3K) 4- 5

RDTOE Cost for LO2 '5H2 Single-Stage, Ground-Baaed Tug (Wp = 50.2K) 4-6

RDT&E Cost for L F ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tq: (Wp = 47.8K) 4- 12

RDTOE Cost for FLOX'CH4 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (W, = 52. OK) 4- 18

RDTOE Cost for L O ~ / L H ~ Stage-and-One-Half, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 30K) 4-24

First-Unit Cost for LO2/L4HZ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 36.3K) 4-28

First-Unit Cost for L O ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage , Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 50.2K) 4-28

Investment Cost for L02/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 36.3K) 4-2 9

Investment Cost for LO2/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 50.2K) 4-29

First-Unit Cost for L F 2 , ' ~ ~ 2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 47.8K) 4-35

Investment Cost for LF2/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Baaed Tug (Wp = 47.8K) 4-35

~ i r s t -un i t Cost for FLOX/CH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 52. OK) 4-41

- Investment Cost for FLOWCH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Baaed Tug (Wp = 52. OK) 4-41

First-Unit Cost for LO /LH Stage-and-One-Half, Ground- Based Tug (Core Wp z 2 3 0 ~ f 4-47

Investment Cost for LO h H 2 Stage-and-One-Half, Ground- Based Tug (Core Wp =%OK) 4-47

Operations Cost Breakdown for L 0 2 / ~ ~ 2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 36.3K) 4- 52

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COLlPANY

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol In

Table

Operations Cost Breakdown for L02/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 50.2K)

Operations Cost ~reakdown for L F ~ / L H ~ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tug (Wp = 47.8K)

Operations Cost Breakdown for FLOWCH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Basea Tug (Wp = 52. OK)

Operations Cost Breakdown for L02/LH2 Stage-and-One-Half, Ground-Based Tug (Core Wp = 30K)

Payload Coats nnd Characteristics for Mission No. 2

Payload Costs and Characteris:ics for Mission No. 3

Payload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 4

Fayload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 5

Payload Costs arid Characteristics for Mission No. 7





Pnvload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 12



Payload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 2?.

Payload Costs and Characteristicn for: Mission No. 24



Payload Costs and Characteristicrj for Mission No. 27


Payload Cosh3 and Characteristics for Mission No. 29



Payload Costs and Charactc:ristics for Mission No. 32

Pnyload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 33

Payload Costs and Chara.cteristics for Mission No. 34


/LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol III

Table







Payload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 54 Subfield 1

Payload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 54 Subfield 2






Payload Cosb and Characteristics for Mission No. 70


P~yload Costs and Characteristics for Mission No. 72



Payload Coats and Characteristics for Mission No. 75




X

{ LOCKHEED MISSILES dr SPACE COMPANY

Chapter 1

I NTRODUCTI ON

Volume 111, Cost Estimates, contains all of the Tug and unmanned-payload costs that

formed the basis for the comparisons and evaluations reported in Volume II. Included

in the cost data are point estimates, parametric cost data, and funding curves. Vol-

ume lII also contains summaries of the technical approach, guidelines, and assumptions

used to derive these costs.

The objective of the cost analysis tasks in the Space Tug Economic Analysis study was

to provide a data base from which comparisons of total Tug program cost (Tug cosL

plus Shuttle user fees and payload costs) could be made. Because of this the cost data

generated in the study had to be valid in two senses:

1. Proper overall magnitude for each configuration

2. Proper relative magnitude among the configurations

A s a result the emphasis in cost analysis ww on attaining relative accuracy, rather

than precision, in the results.

Volume 111 is organized in the following way. Chapter 2 presents the important guide-

lines and assumptions that were used to constrain the cost analysis, and the work break-

down structure (WBS) that was used to format Tug c:oets. Chapters 3 through 5 then

present the specific approach and key results of the cost analysis, in the following

sequence :

o Chapter 3 - Orbit Injection Stages

a Chapter 4 .- Reusable Space Tugs

Chapter 5 - Payloads

Chapter 3 presents the point costs estimated for the expendable orbit injection stagee.

These stages are either existing vehicles or derivatives of existing vehicles, and be-

cause their sizus are c!utahliabed, no pnrametric coat data wuro gonornttd for anv of

thc OLS confiyurallonv. 1- 1



Chapter 4 contains cost data for reusable Space Tugs and also for expendable versions

of these Tugs. The cost data include both point estimates and parametric data. The

point costs, presented in the work breakdown structure format, ?.re for the Tug sizes

and concepts that were selected for further study at the end of Phase I; RDT&E, first-

unit, investment, and operations costs are presented for each Tug concept. The para-

metric data are in the form of direct computer plots of cost 1.5 propellant loading, or

cost vs activity level.

Chapter 5 contains payload data. This chapter comprises the comp! 3te payload data

base for the study and includes payload costs, weights, dimensions, flight schedules,

and orbital parameters for the unmanned spacecraft considered in this analysis. DoD

payloads are described in a classified appendix to Chapter 5. This appendix is distributed

on a limited basis.

1-2


LMSC-Dl53408 Vol I11

Chapter 2

GUI DELI NES AND ASSUMPTIONS

COSTING A S S MPTIONS

Important assumptions made in performing the cost analysis were as follows:

0 Constant year dollars were used. To be consistent with other studies of the Space Transportation System, the year selected was 1970.

a The reference value for the Shuttle user fee was set at $5 million per flight. This value was used independently of the number of Shuttle flights required.

a Prime contractor fee was omitted, but subcontractor and supplier fees were accounted for in the magnitude of costs.

Tugs were assumed to be produced at a minimum efficient rate (roughly 5 per year) to minimize the costs of sustaining a production base.

a In calculating Tug fleet requirements, it was assumed that reusable Tugs ap- proaching the end of their nominal (design) lifetime would be used on missions requiring an expendable stage.

The recurring costs for Tugs and OIS vehicles do not include mission-peculiar services or software.

All RDT&E costs include expenditures for a flight test program and also costs for developing and building Shuttle interface hardware.

No costs for Government manpower (e. g., program management, tracking network, mission control center) o r Government-furnished equipment/services are included.

WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE

In reporting the Tug costs, a hardware-end-item-oriented work breakdown structure

(WBS) is used. This WBS (Figure 2-1) is organized in general accordance with Attach-

ment 2 to NASA Data Requirements Description MF-030, a s contained in the statement

of work for this contract. The subsystem level (level-5 in MF-030) is the keystone;

the study WBS carries principal Tug subsystems and important services (designated as

floating items in MF-030) at this level.

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In accordance with Attachment 2 cited above, the Space Tug work breakdown structure

i: tailored to fit the parametric cost model that was used to generate reusable Tug esti-

mates. Consequently, this WBS has taken on some of the characteristics of the cost

model, as follows:

a The subsystem groupings a r e fairly broad, reflecting the generalized nature of the data base

a The hardware breakdown i s also intended to serve the Space Shuttle; consequently systems such as hydraulics, that a re major elements of Shuttle hardware, a r e identifiad as separate line entries even though hydraulic systems are a minor cost element in space vehicles

To help reconcile the Tug costs quoted in this volume with the historical cost studies

that are now nearing completion under NASA sponsorship and that use the more detailed

WBS format of MF-030, the following important definitions of Space Tug WBS entries

a re provided:

Structures. In addition to costs for the major load-bearing structural members, this

entry includes costs for thermal/meteoroid protection and propellant feed/management

systems. It also includes a proportion af the analytical definition and support tasks

perform: - at the total-vehicle level. These latter tasks, including weights, structural

dynamics, loads, and thermodynamics analyses, a re sometimes carried under Systems

Engineering and Integration. Specific items of hardware carried under Structures a r e

a s follows:

a All integral and nonintegral propellant tanks, including bulkheads

a Al' 'od-carrying elements including thrust structure, intertank sections, and interstages

., All pressurization system elements (tanks, plumbing)

a All propellant feed, fill, and arain elements

a Tank insulation and meteoroid shielding

a Propellant utilization systems

a Przjpellant orientation and management systems (screens, baffles, zero-g gent devices)

2-3



Avionics. This entry refers to the major electronic systems required to guide, stabilize,

monitor, and communicate with the Space Tug. Specific items included under Avioni6s

are as f Jlows:

a Guidance and Navigation. lncludes all ~nertial reference elements; navigational sensors; stabilization and control electronics; rendezvous and docking electronics; and central computers (regardless of whether the computers also serve other subsystems)

a Communications. Comprises all rf equipment requlred to transmit information between Tug and Shuttle, or between the Tug and ground stations. Equates to Telemetry/~racking/Command subsystem in unmanned spacecraft terminology.

a Instrumlmtation. Includes all sensors, data conditioning and data evaluation hardware, and associated interconnections. Also includes displays and status panels.

Power Supply and Distribution. This entry covers all hardware that produces either

electrical or hydraulic/pneumatic power. Specific elements subordinate to Power fhp-

ply and Distribution are as follows:

a Electrical Power. Includes power supply (e. g., batteries, fuel cells), power conversion, and power distribution (electrical harnessing, junction boxes).

a Hydraulic Power. Includes power packages, accumulators, lines, and actuators (not used with reusable Tug because these vehicles have electromechanical gim- bal actuators)

Propulsion. This WBS entry covers all Tug propulsive systems: primary, secondary,

and orientation control. It includes engines for all systems, and feed/fill/drain/

pressurization functions for the secondary and orientation control systems. Systems

subordinate to Propulsion are as follows:

Main Rocket Engine. Iticludes the engine and its electromechanical thrust vector control mechanism. Excludes main stage tankage, pressurization, plumbing, and propellant management devices

a Orientation Control. Equates to Reaction Control or Attitude Control systems in other nomenclature. Comprises engines, tanks, and all feed functions.

2-4



Integration, Assembly and Checkout. This entry covers all stages between the

completion of subsystems hardware and the delivery of the completed Tug. It includes

the following steps:

a Final Assembly. Installation of subsystems, assembly of major segments, alignment, and checkout

Acceptance Test. Functional testing in specified environments, and all supporting test plans, quality assurance, and documentation activities

Tooling. This entry includes all costs associated with tooling and special test equip-

ment (STE). It specifically comprises the cost of planning, design, fabrication, assem-

bly, installation, mcdif i cation, maintenance, and rework of all tooling and STE, a s

follows:

Tooling. Includes assembly tools, dies, jigs, fixtures, master forms, gauges, and in-plant handling equipment

Special Test Equipment. Includes simulators, test sets, ar 3 other hardware designed to accomplish the in-process testing of avionics equipment

Ground Support Equipment. This entry includes the cost of development, engineering,

testing, and production of all ground-based equipment required to support the Space

Tug during test (development and acceptance), launch, and refurbishment. It comprises

checkout equipment, ground handling a d servicing equipment, and launch monitor and

control equipment.

Test Hardware. This WBS entry covers all major test articles used during the RDT&E

phase of the Space Tug program, including ground- snd flight-test articles as follows:

Ground Test Hardware. Includes the cost of manufacturing mockups and the complete vehicle elements needed for structural/dynamic testing, propulsion system integration testing, and all-systems testing. Hardware for subsystems development and qualification test is excluded from this element but is included with the appropriate subsystem design and development costs.

Flivht Test Hardware, Includes the fabrication, assembly and acceptance-test costs of all flight test articles.

2- 5



Test Operations. This cntry comprises the direct costs of conducting all system-level

ground and flight tests. It includes manpower for test planning, test operations, and

data reduction/evaluation; it also includes all consumables used during these tests,

particularly propellants and gases. Specific test operations cost elements a r e aa

follows:

Ground Test. Includes only system-level tests such as structures, dynamks, cold flow, and hot firings. Excludes subsystem level tests (these a r e carried under the appropriate subsystem entries in the WBS).

a Flight Test. Includes the costs for Tug launch, flight, and refurbishment operations in the RDT&E phase; flight-test data reduction and evaluation; and Space Shuttle user fezs for the test flights.

Training, This entry covers the costs of initial personnel-training irctivities, design

and fabrication of simulators and teaching aids, and development of curricula. The

skills taught in the training program include Shuttle crew operations for Tug checkout,

deployment, and retrieval; mission-control crew functions; and launch base operations

with the Tug.

Facilities and Equipment, This entry covers the costs incurred to design, build, and

activate new facilities for the Space Tug. Because existing facilities a re sufficient for

manufacturing and testing of the Tug, and because Shuttle launch facilities will serve

both vehicles, the only fncili,~es required for the Tug a re refurbishment and mainte-

nance shops.

Systems Engineering and Integration. T5is entry covers two separate elements from

the Tug cost model, namely Systems Engineering and Vehicle Integration. Systems

Engineering is defined in the model to include: eatabliahing engineering design charac-

teristics; determinicg criteria for design review; establishing procedures for testing

components, subsystems, o r vehicle elements; integration of ground and flight test results into the vehicle design; developing procedures for vehicle maintenance; quality

planning and administrative engineering. Vehicle Integration is defined as the cost of

engineering and development activities relating to the definition of vehicle and payload

interfaces, and the proper integration of the Tug with other vehicle system elements.

Some of the costs identified under Systems Engineering and Integration in historical

studies are prorated to the subsystems (particularly Structures) in the Tug cost model.



Program Management. This entry covers the costs for prime-contractor direct costs

associated with managing the Tug program. It includes the cost of maintaining a project

office to perform such functions as overall technical direction and coordination; pro-

gram control (schedules and costs) ; and documentat ion (reports, specifications, manu-

als). This WBS entry specifically excludes salaries of managers and executives work-

ing for the contractor; these persons are indirect employees.

Launch Operations and Services. This WBS entry covers all events between the time - that a new Tug arrives at the launch site (or a refurbished Tug is delivered from the

maintenance shops) l;o the time the Shuttle is launched. Specific cost elements subordi-

nate to this entry are as follows:

8 Launch Operations. Includes the costs for manpower to perform receiving inspection, T I I ~ checkout, payload mating and checkout, prelaunch handling (in support of Shuttle crew), Tug propellant loading, and participation in the countdown

Propellants. Comprises costs for main-stage and orientation-control propellants, and all gases, flushing compounds, and miscellaneous fluids.

Facilities and Equipment Maintenance. Refers to the recurring costs for maintenance and operation of all Tug facilities and GSE at the launch site

8 Engineering Support. Includes sustaining engineering, liaison and engineering services activities performed at the contractor's plant and at the launch site during the Operations phase of the Tug program

8 P r o ~ r a m Mana~ement and Integration. Comprises costs for administration and management services in support of the Tug launch-base activities, e. g., cost and schedule control and reporting, management, and clerical salar tea

Range/Base Srlpport. Refers to the costs of services (usually provided by a support contractor) that support the direct launch and maintenance operations. Includes range safety and control; shop and repair services; standards md in- strument calibration; and base services such as food, mail, reproduction, security, fire protection, utilities, communications, transportatton, health and custodial services, and logistics support.

Flight Operations and Services. This WBS entry covers all Tug activities from launch of the Shuttle through recovery of the Tug at the completion, of its mission. Specific

cost elements subordinate to this study are as follows:

a Communications and Control. Also known as Mission Control. Includm costs associated with ground command, control, and tracking from Tug launch through tnission completion and returr. Includes such functions as flight control, telemetry, communtcations, data processing and data analysis.

/ LOCKHEEG MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY


Replacement Training. Includes the cost of training qualified Shuttle and mission-control crew personnel, to replace those lost by rotation o r attrition, in order to maintain manning at levels necessary to meet flight and ground operation schedules.

Recovery Operations, - Includes the cost of assisting in recovery operations, propellant purging, vehicle deactivation and servicing. Assumes that the Tug returns within the Shuttle bay.

Refurbishment. This WBS entry covers all activities between the time when a deacti-

vated Tug is returned froin the flight cycle ar,, he time that this Tug is delivered to the

launch facility ready for a new prelaunch cycle. Cost elements specifically included

under this entry a re as follows:

Vehicle Maintenance, Includes the cost to restore a reusable Tug after mission completion to a readiness condition for subsequent missions. All coats per- taining to inspec tion, maintenance, replacement of necessary parts, repair (as necessary) of components, and testing a re included. This activity ie completed when the vehicle is ready for launch operations. Includes both normal turnaround between flights and regularly scheduled overhauls . Follow-on Spares. Refers to the coats of spare parts and components produced to repleni~h initial spare stocks in support of Tug maintenance and overhaul, both scheduled and unscheduled.

Transportation. This WBS entry accumulates costs for Space Shuttle user fees incurred

in delivering the Tug and its payload to low earth orbit. A baseline user fee of $5 million

per flight was used in this study.

2-8



Chapter 3

ORB I T INJECTION STAGES

This chapter reports cost estimates derived for the orbit injection stage (01s) claae of

Space Tags. The OISs a re existing stages, o r growth versions of existing stages,

modified for Shuttle compatibility and flown only in the expendable m )de. Important

aspects of the OIS cost analysis a r e a s follows:

Point costs were derived rather than parametric data because the OIS sizes ware generally well established

The emphasis in c o s t i q was on deriving estimates that were comparable between concepts, especially for the unit production and operations costs that drive OIS total-program expenditure levels.

a The recurring production costs cited for OIS concepts a r e average unit values at a givcn production rate. Theoretical first-unit costs were not presented becrbuse the OIS concepts represent mature space-vehicle designs whose costs a r e influenced by production rate rather than learning effects.

APPROACH

The estimates of 01s costs were derived using a two-step procedure. First, a set of

preliminary estimates was made s o cost comparisons could be made using the STAR/

ANNEX computer program. The unit costs were estimated on the basls of current

pricing data for the existing Agena and Centaur stages. RDT&E costs for the con-

version of those stages to OIS cotlfigurations were estimated by extrapolation from

compar~ble development programs.

Then, a s tho NASA-funded studies of Agena and Centaur OE3 vehicles (NAS9-11949 and

NAS3-14389, respectively) were completed, the reeulte of the more detailed eetimates

formulated on these contracts were compared with the preliminary valuee. Differences

between the two sets of estin- tee were evaluated and reconciled.

The results of this analysis a r e presented in th? following eections.



015 COST DATA

Agena

'i'he ~)reliminrtry cost estimates used to represent the existing Aget:.~ (modified for

scrvicc as an orbit injection stage) were a s follows: 7- 1

The recurring costs were calculated assuming the production and launch rates needed

Recurr iilg Production

Recurring Operat ions

to sustain a best-mix family of Agena and Centaur (i. e., 378 Agenas md 116 Centaurs)

$ 2.29 Milli I

I $ 0.68 Mill. . 1

over the 12 year mission model. A tabular breakout of Agena OIS recurring production

costs formulated in this analysis is presented in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1. AVERArJZ HECURRXNG PRODUCTION COST FOR THE AGENA OIS

Structures and Thermal Protection I 0.1 91 Propei lant Fzed and Management 0.076

1 tern

Structure

Avionics

(0.261)

Guidance and Navigation Communications Instrumentation 1

I Power Supply ard Distr.ibution I (0.1 04) I Electrical Hydraulic

I Propu Isi on I (0.523) I Main Rocket Engine Orienlai ion Control

I Integration, Assembly, Checkout, and Test I 0.225 I I Program Management I 0.061 I I Systems Engineering I 0.245 I

Spans

Total

0.058 2.292

LMSC-Dl63408 Vol 1x1

In lhe Shuttle/A~cncl e tudy pcrfornled by Ilockheed for NASA/ MSC (NAS9-11949) these

coats wcre complct~~ly rr.!c;llculntcd using :I rigorous bottom-up estlmnting mcthdolcr;~,

In general, the rccalculnted costs werc found to be in ;~grcemcnt with the preliminary

values once rate differences wcre nccounttd for. Spm:ific compurtsona of thc cost

data a r c a s follows:

Recurring Production. The detailed analysis of Agena OIS unit production colvts gave an estimate of $3.41 million per vehicle a t a manufacturing rate of aix per year; projected cost reductions with higher rates a r e shown in Figure 3-1. When extrapolated ta the Agena/Centaur best-mix launch ratc! of over 30 Agenas per year, the unit costs drop to around $2.2 million e~,:h; this is in excellent agreement with the preliminary estimaie.

Recurring Operations. The detailed cost analysis resulted ir. an estimate of $780,000 per flight for recurring operations (launch ,.~d flight operatious/ services) at a rate of 6 l:.wnches per year. This compares t.9 ehe preliminary estimate of $682,000 at over 30 Agena OIS launches per year. When meas- ured against other Agena launch rate/cost projections, the original estimate of $682,000 a t more than 30 launches per year is conside;:ec quite conservative.

RDT&E. In the detailed Agena OIS cost analysis it was estimated that development of the Agcna for service as an orbit injection stage (including Plbri- cation of six sets of Shuttle interface hardware and one flight test artic..ej would cost $40.469 million. This compares to an original estimate of $43.9 million, a variation of less than 10 percent.

C X (TYPICAL AGENA OIS VALUES)

Figure. 9-1 m i c a 1 Unit Cost vs Rate Curve for Agma OIS


LMSC -Dl53408 Vol I11

In summary the preliminary values used for the Agena OIS in cost comparisons were

equivalent lo the refined estimates, or were slightly more conservative,

Large Tank Agena (LTA)

The preliminary estimates used to represent the Large Tank Agena OIS in cost com-

parisons were as follows:

The recurring costs were based on production and launch rates needed to sustain the

12 year mission m d c l using exclusively the Large Tank Agena OIS, that is, rates in

excess of 40 per year. Tile R3T&E costs were based on a development program in

which the OIS development would proceed directly to the large-tank version of Agena

( : rather than evolving from a 5-foot diameter Agena OIS.

In t;.; reflned cost analysis performed under contract NAS9-11949 the LTA orbit in-

jection stages were estimated at the same level of detail as the Agena 01s. Comparing

the result~l of this refined analysis with the preliminary estimates just discussed, the

following specific observations can be made:

Recurring Production. In the detailed cost analysis, unit production costs for the LTA orbit injection stage were estimated at $3.86 million for a manufacturing rate of six vehicles per year, whereas the preliminary estimate was $2.59 million based on a production rate of 40 vehicles per year. Although no unit-coat-versus-rate chart was formulated for the LTA orbit injection stage, the $2.59 million cost at 40 per year appears consistent with the $3.86 million at six per year if the trend of the baseline Agena rate curve applies.

Recurring Operations. The derived operations cost of the LTA OIS was $844,000 per launch at six fiights per year. This compares with the $682,000 preliminary estimate based on 40 launches per year. In rec- onciling these two values i t appears that $682,000 is a reasonable-to- slightly-conservative extrapolation of the operations costs at over 40 launches per year.

RDT&E. The RDT&E cost for a Large Tank Agena OIS was estimated at $47.662 million in the detailed cost analysis and at $51.9 million in the preliminary, a difference of less than 10 percent.

/ I nr -ucFn .q lCr l l FS I - : SPACE COMPANY

. ..- 'a. - . ' 9 -


In summary, the LTA orbit injection stage costs a s used in the preliminary comparisons

agree reasonably well with the detailed estimates derived in the Agena O!S study.

Centaur

The preliminary Centaur cost estimates used by Lockheed to compare OIS concepts

were as follows:

The recurring costs were calculated assu~lling the production and launch rates needed

to sustain a best-mix family of Agena and Centaur (116 Centaurs over 12 years). A

tabular breakout of Centaur OIS recurring-production costs, as used in the Tug con-

cept cornparlsons, is presented in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2. PAVER AGE RECURRING PRODUCTION COST FOR CENTAUR OIS

*Distributed among Subsystems

3- 5

Item

~tructure

Structures and Thermal Protection Propellant Feed and Management

*r,vionics

Guidance and Navigation Communications Instrumentat ion 1

Power Supply and Distribution

Electrical Hydrau 1 i c

Propulsion

Main Rocket Engines Orientation Control

Integration, Assembly, Checkout and Test

Program Management

Systems Engineering

- p~

Tota I


Cost ($ Mil lions)

(1 -462 ) 0.662 0.800 (1 -341 ) 1 -056 0.285

(0.1 97)

0.095 0.1 02

(1 -41 1 )

0 .a80 0.531 0.335

x

* 4.746


In the study "Compatibility of a Cryogenic Upper Stage with Space Shuttle, " performed

by General Dynamics/Convatr Aerospace for NASA Lewis Research Center (contract

NAS3-14489), a systematic analysis of Centaur OIS costs was conducted. The results

of this analysis show that there is general agreement between these costs and Uckit@r?d

preliminary estimates in all areas except RDT&E funding requirements. Specific com-

parisons a r e a s follows:

Recurring Production. The recclrring production costs estimated by Convair Aerospace totaled $5.24 million each at a production rate of fo t~r vehicles per year. A curve of the expected Centaur OIS cost versus production rate was also formulated by Convair; this curve is presented as the upper plot in Figure 3-2. When extrapolated to the Centaur launch rate for an A g e d Centaur best-mix (approximately nine per year) the imit cost of a Centaur OIS declines to about $4.7 million, which is in excellent agreement with the preliminary estimate.

Recurring Operations. The detailed Convair Aerospace cost analysis estimated Centaur OIS recurring operations costs at $1.69 million for a launch rate of four per year, with cost reduction for higher rates a s shown in the lower curve of Figure 3-2. When extrapolated to nine launches r?r year this estimate drops to approximately $1.2 million, which agrees exactly with the preliminary estimate. The Convair costs, however, exclude propellauts and gases.

RDT&E. Convair Aerospace estimated the cost to modify the Centaur D-1T to an orbit injection stage configuration at $30.6 million. This estimate i s based on the assumptions that there would be no flight test of the Centaur OIS, and that two operational sets of Shuttle interface equipment would be procured. This estimate differs by a factor of two with the preliminary costs estimated by Lockheed. Obvious sourcec of difference between the two values a r e (1) the inclusion of a flight test program in the Lockheed estimate and (2) the difference in amount of operational Shuttle interface equipment procured (six sets assumed by Lockheed and two by Convair Aerospace). The other variances apparently arise from differing inter- pretations of relative con~plexity in Centaur modification to the OIS configuration.

In summary, the preliminary estimates for Centaur OIS used in cost comparisons were

in agreement with Convair Aerospace estimz.tes, except in the area of RDT&E cost.

However, inasmuch as development coats were not a factor in the economic ranking

of OIS concepts, the importance of the RDT&E cost discrepancies was minimal.

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I nCFHFFr) MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY


3-7

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( I I N ~ / S N O I ~ ~ ~ W $1 SlS03 9NIllUn33Y SIO lnVlN33

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Growth Tank Centaur

The preliminary cost estimates formulated by Lockheed for the Growth Tank (G'I')

Centaur were a s follows:

Reclirr tng Production $ 5.25 Million

Recurring Operations $ 1.20 Million

RDT&E $65.50 hlil!iou

The recurring costs were calculated assuming production and launch rates of nine

vehicles per year.

Under contract NAS3-14389, Convair Aerospace estimated, on a preliminary basis

the costs of a Growth Tank Centaur orbit injection stage. The results of this analysis

may be comnared to the preliminary costs a s follows:

8 Recurring Production. Growth Tank Centaur OIS recurring production costs were estimated to be $5.5 million at a rate of four per yebr. This contrasts with Lockheed1 s estimate of $5.2 5 million at a production rate of nine vehicles per year. No cost-versus-rate curve was generated by Convair Aerospace for the G T Centaur 01s; however, based on Centaur trends it is estimated that the preliminary values a re about $200,000 higher at nine per year than an extrapolation of the Convair estimate.

8 Recurring Operations. Convair Aerospace did not identify any increase in recurring-operations costs in going from the D-1T to the GT wersion of - - a Centaur 01s.- However, the Convair estimates specifically exclude propellants and gases, one of the launch cost items that would definitely increase for the larger G T Centaur. After adjusting the Convair estimates of $1.69 million per launch (at four per year) for rate variations there results a cost identical lo the preliminary value of $1.2 million. Both values a re low by the cost of propellants and gases.

8 RDT&E. The RDT&E cost estimated by Convair Aerospace for developing an 018 to the G T Centaur configuration (without the intervening step of a D-1T Centaur version) is $36.2 million. This compares to the Lockheed preliminary estimate of $65.5 million. The same factors that were discussed with relation to the differences between Convair and Lockheed estimates for the D-1 T Centaur OIS apply here.

In summary, the comparative costs used by Lockheed in the Space Tug Economic

Analysis for the GT Centaur OIS were sIightly higher in recurring-production cost

than Convair's value. Both values were identical in recurring operations, but a r e

I I QCKHEFD MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

LMSC -Dl53408 Vol 111

probably low because of propellant/gas requirements. The RDT&E costs estimated

by Convair were just over half the value estimated by Lockheed; the differences re-

flect varying assumptions and differing estimates of the development complexity.

FUNDING REQUlREMENTS

Tug funding requirements by year were calculated for all OIS configurations a s part

of the STAR/ANNEX program. Standard statistical spread functions were used to

distribute costs over the applicable time spans. No smoothing of expenditure curves

was performed.

To typify the funding pattern lor the entire class of orbit injection stages, the annual

expenditure requirements of a promising OIS configuration (the Large Tank Agena)

have been plotted by fiscal year. This graph is presented as Figure 3-3. The funding

requirements shown here represent expenditures for RDT&E, recurring production

(i ... estment in the expendable Tug fleet), and recurring operations for the &2 year

42 duration of the mission model. These costs specifically exclude Space Shuttle user

fee, and all payload costs. The characteristic funding curve for an orbit injection

stage features low early-year funding ($20 million peak for LTA in FY 1976-77);

this is of importance because peak Shuttle funding requirements occur in this same

general time period. However, Large Tank Agena OIS funding requirements increase

to a level of about $150 million during the operational period. The total funding for

the Large Tank Agena OIS amounts to $1.64 billion.

3- 9

1 I n e v H r F Q MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol lII

RECURRl N G PRODUCTION (INVESTMENT)

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90

FISCAL YEAR

Figure 3-3. Large Tank Agena (OIS) Funding Requirements

3-16

I I OCUHFED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY


Chapter 4

REUSABLE SPACE TUGS

Chapter 4 reports the cost estimates derived for the general class of reusable Space

Tugs (both reusable and expendable versions of the Tugs). This chapter i s organized

in the following manner. First, cine approach used in costing ieusable Tugs is

summarized briefly. Then the cost data for specific Tug concepts a r e presented in

detail. The sequence of data follows a time-phased order, a s follows:

1. RDT&E costs

2. Investment phase costs (including theoretical first-unit values)

3. Operations costs

Within each phase, the costs a r e compared by concept in the following sequence:

Point costs a r e given (in the WBS format) for the reference Tug sizes selected a t the

end of Phase I and then parametric cost curves a r e given to extend the data across

the spectrum of Tug sizes. In the first-unit cost data, parametric estimates are

presented for both expendable and reusable versions of the Tug concepts.

The final section of Chapter 4 discusses funding requirements for these reusable Tugs.

APPROACH

The costing of reusable Space Tug concepts was accomplished by the use of a parametric

cost model that was automated within 'Ile logic of the STAR/ANNEX computer program.

This cost model was based on an earlier model derived by Aeroepace Corporation

~STS Cost Methodology, Volume 11, "Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle Cost Methodology, l1

Aerospace Corp. , TOR-0059(6759-04)- Auguat 31, 1970, as revised.


for chemical orbit-to-orbit shuttle systems, This basic model was augmented as other data from NASA or Lockheed sources became available. Certain of the cost

estimating relationships in the model were replaced and certain of the complexity

factors were modified.

The resulting model reflects the most detailed estimates attainable with thc given

historical base. In this model costs for major categories of subsystems and services

a r e estimated using cost estimating relationships (CERs). These CERs relate cost

to technical parameters (primarily weight); they a re based on broad historical data

for launch vehicles, manned and unmanned spacecraft, and liquid-propellant ballistic

missiles. Because the data base is so broad and the data a r e in inconsistent formats,

the categories of costs for CERs a r e also very broad. For example the CER for

Structures includes in addition to load-carrjing structural members, insulation

(thermal protection), propellant feed/fill/drain, and pressurization systems; it also

includes some share of overall-system design and sustaining-engineering costs,

Any costs not estimated directly by CERs a r e derived by other mathematical relation-

ships that take into account both the hardware costs (as derived from the CERs) and

external factors such as activity level.

Complexity factors a re applied to the resulting costs, to account for differences of

propellant type, design concept, o r lifetime. In addition, learning curve factors

a r e applied to the theoretical first-unit costs to ad just for production improvement

effects; these learning factors a r e also assumed to compensate for size-of-buy

efficiencies.

The output of this model is a breakdown of reusable Tug dollar estimates to major

cost-producing elements for the RDT&E, investment, and operations phases. NASA

is now in the process of building a cost data bank with far greater detail than the

sources used for this Tug cost model; moreover, these studies are being conducted

with a common reference format s o the results will be more directly comparable.

When the data bank is complete, a Tug cost model of far finer detail will become

feasible.

4 2

I I OCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

LMSC -Dl53408 VOI nr

RDT&E COSTS

The costs for the rescarch, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) phase of the

reusable Space Tug program a r e presented here. The RDT&E phase costs include al l

nonrecurring expenditures that would be made for the Space Tug program from the

star t of Phase C (Design) through the date of initial operational capability (IOC) for

the full Tug system. Specific activities included in this phase a r e design and develop-

ment of the Tug s y s t ~ m ; fabrication oi ground- and flight-test hardware; test operations

(ground and flight); design and fabrication of tooling and ground support equipment

sufficient for the RDT&E phase; and training.

Important assumptions governing these RDT&2 costa a r e aB follows:

A total of five equivalent vehic!ss was coated under the WBS entry for Test Hardware; of these, three were ground-test articles and two were flight- test articles.

Test Operations costs include 20 equivalent full-duration firings.

Costs for Concept Feasibility and Definition phases of the program (Phases A and B, respectively, under Phased Project Planning criteria) were omitted. Technology progrsm costs (normally funded under Supporting Research and Technology expenditbres) were likewise omitted.

For definition of the individual WBS entries, refer to Chapter 2.

4-3



Single-Stage L@/LH~ Tug RDT&E Costs

The RDT&E co; is for single-stage, reusable, ground-based Space Tug configurations

that use L@/LH2 propellants a r e presented in this section. Point estimates for the

RDT&E costs of two reference eizes (36,300 lb and 50,200 lb propellant loading) of

this class of Tugs a r c presented in Tables 4-1 and 4-2, respectively.

Parametric RDT&E cost data for single-stage Lm/Lli2 reusable Tugs a r e presented

in Figures 4-1 through 4-4. Mgure 4-1 is a summary of RDT&E cost a s a function of

propellant loading. The variation in cost is caused solely by the overall size effects

(e. g., larger tooling, costlier test articles, increased test-phase propellants). The

primary breakdown of costs in Figure 4-1 follows a nomenclairlre peculiar to the cost

model. Each of the cost entries on this chart is further broken down as follows:

Airframe. Consists of the structures, avionics, and power subsystems. The parametric breakdown of these costs ie given in Figure 4-2.

Propulsion. Consists of main-engine and orientation-control systems. The Xreakdom of these costs is presented in Figure 4-3.

Miscellan Equates to floating-item (services) type costs. The breakdown d ese costs is presented in Figure 4-4.

4-4



Table 4-1. RDT&E C 0 8 T FOR ~ / L H ~ SINGLE-STAGE, GROUND-BASED 1'UG

(Wp = 36.3K)

4-5

/ LOCKHEED MIC. ILLS & SPACE COMPANY

I

l tern

Structure

Avionics

Guidance and Navigation

Communications

Instrumentation


Electrical Power

Ropu l si on

Cost ($ mi llions)

87.1 91 (28 .. 99)) 16.834 9.931 2.1 73

(21,010) 21,010

(1 3? ,775) Main Rocket Engine I 1 95,876 Orientation Control

Initial Tooling

Ground Support Equipment

Test Hardware

Test Operations

Training

Systems Engineering and Integration

Program tviamgernent

Facilities

Total

27.899 23.495, 11.678 80.047 35.082 4,801

22.406 25.177

36.284

509.948 -

IJMSC-Dl53408 Vol IT1

'I'al,lc~ . I -%. 111YI'&1' (:OS'I' YOlt L ( ~ / I , I I ~ SINGLE-STAGE, GROUNLI-BASED TUG

(W1> 50.2K)

, I - ( ;


Item ---

Structure

Avionics


Communications

Instrumentation


Electrical Power

Propulsion

Main Rocket Engine

Orientation Control

Initial Tooling


Test Hardware

Test Operations

Training

Systcms Engineering and Integration

Program Management

Facilities

Total

+

Cost ($ mi I l ions)

'r5.832

(28.998)

16.834

9.991

2.173

(21.01 0)

21 -010

(1 34.106)

105 -876

28,230

26.334

12,677

81.941

35.559

4.839

23.355

26.444

37.083

528.1 78

.. --.- I #& REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. - , I / : . .

:JLIF(BER OF EWINES caw I . 960.0 Y C . * : ~ C I F I C 1 t ~ t - 4 ~

1.- IOlAL R.D.

Figure 4-1. Parametric RDTBE Coete for LQ/LH2 Single-Stage, G r d - B a r e d T q p

j4-7

: : REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR .,, .

Lirh H'r C%i&:J FRYELL ANT

Figure 4-2. Parametric Avionics, Power and Structure RDTQE Costs, IX)g/LE2 Single-Stage, Ground Based Tugs


.* - " -- I t*-

u .*: REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL P A G ~ IS POOR. .-

LWC-DlS3408 Vol I11

PROFELLANT KIM1 *LBS0 _____ - - - -- - - . . ----I- ___ - --

C Figure 4-3. Parametric Propulsion RDT&E Coets, %/LQ Silrgle-Stage, G r d Baaed Tugs

,409


t

I-. '"F. -

I ,

L

;i REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. "-7

. .

Ngure 4-4. Parametric Floating-Item RDT&E Coets, LQ/LH2 Single-Stage, Ground-Baaed Tugs

4-10

/ I OCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

t, ' * REPRODUClBlLlTY OF THE ORIGINAL FAG^ IS POOR. %T. .

, .*- .. .-A .- 4 ..' . .A& .. .-. --. *-.-- . .- - L _ _ _ ---- -

F #

2 4 t 8'

Singk-Stagc LF,,/LII Tug IiLYT& IS Costs - 2

This scclion prcsc~lts RIYI'& E costs Tor singlc-st:&c, ground-l):i.rc?ct, rc8us:1l)lc Slricsc~

'rugs lllnl usc LP, /LII, ~)ropcllants. A 1n)inl csCim:tCc for lhc I l l Y l ' t 11: cost of I.ho on(! L '2

rcbfcrcncc I , Y ~ / I . ~ I ~ 'L'ug concc!(d, sizcd at 47, U00 lb propcllnnt Itxding, is l)rc!sc~nt~d

ill *ktl~il* 4-3.

1br;lrnctric cost d;lliu fur the RVl'OE costs of single-stage L F ~ / L I ~ ~ rcusablc Spacc

Tugs arc prcscntcd in Figurcs 4-5 through 4-8. The geileral format of these graphs

is similar to the L O ~ / L I ~ ~ series presented in the previous section; that is. the total

RDT&E cost curves are given first, followed by detailed parametric breakdowns of the

RDT& E cost elements.

0

C' 4- 11

( LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY



Table 4-3. RDT& E COST FOR L F ~ / L I I ~ SINGLE-STAGE, GROUND-BASKD 'IVG

(Wp - - 47.8K)

4- 12

t

l tem Cost ($ mil lions) Structure 91 -649

Avionics (28.998)

Guidance and Navigation 1 6.834

Communications 9.991

Instrumentation 2.1 73

Power Supply and Distribution (21 . 01 0) Electrical Power 21 .010

Propulsion (1 89.563)

Main Rocket Engine 1 61 .334 Orientation Control 28.229

Initial Tooling 23,087

Ground Support Equipment 11.548

Test Hardware 82.835

Test Ope rat ions 35 -342 Tmining 4.857

Systems Engineering and Integration 25.1 64 Program Management 25.959

Foci lities 36.1 81

Total 576.1 93

I &

:$ . ,,. _ . REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR.

1 1 ,OCKHEEb MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

PROPELLAKT I-E IGHT 'LBS* - - A . - . . - -~ .. .- -- --

Figure 4-5. Parametric RDTQE Costs for LF2/LH2 Single-Stage, Grourd-Baaed Tugm

pi L ' 4 REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. ad

. .

NAV 1 l j A

Figure 4-6. Parametric Avionics, Power and Structures RIYI'QE Costs, LF2/L&4 Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tuge

/ l ,OCKHEED MISSILES L SPACE COMPANY

L - REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. r .

IrtuPtLL ANT IEIUIT * L 6 *

.- ---

Figure 4-7. Parametric Prapulaion RDT&E Cwto, LF~/LH~ B i p g l e ~ , Grouncl-Baaed Tugs

, . . L . .,.. : REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PnGt IS POOR.

R b . 1 A:E+ E !:ilGT' MISCELLAMI WUSEABLE MX€ Hr DRUI-fPl FI I.&:@ IN C R C ~ C L L A N ~

;-hni'l@ 1 t i . 1 m c ~ tRlMRCR OF ENGINES ENlAL I . 1 4 4 .PEt i r l i IWICF

Figure 4-8, Parametric Floating-Item RDTQE Cooto, L F 2 / w Singb-8Wg0, Ground-Brured Tug6


LMX! -L)153408 Vol 111

I Single-Stngc FLOX/C 114 Tug RDT&. E Costs

'I'l~iu scction presents HD'I'&l*: costs for eingle-atage, ground-based reusable Space

'I'UKN that usc FLOX/Cllq propellants. A point estimate of RDTt E cost for the one

rofcrcncc VC0X/CH4 'rug concept, siccd at 52,000 lb propellant loading, is presented

lhramctric HDT& Lz cost dnh for single-stage reusable FLOX/CH~ Tugs are presented

in Figures 4-9 through 4-12. These graphs follow the format and sequence used with

the L02/LEi2 and L,Fz/ LH2 Tug parametric data (i. e. , total RDT& E costs first,

followed by details of the major cost elements).

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACe COMPANY 1 "

. 3. 'Y .

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol In

T d l e 4-4. R lYl'&E COST FOR ~ ~ U ) X / C I I ~ SINGLE-STAGE. GI1 WNlhBASEU TUG

(W,; 52. OK)

-

F ' , j,

4-18

LOCKHEED MISSILES a smce COMPANY

r""*P.' i . '

L . .' -, !.&.**& -. .

- Item

Structure

Avionics


Communications

Instrumentation


Electrical Power

Propulsion

Main Rocket Engine

Orientation Control

Initial Tooling


Test Hardware

Test Operat ions

Training


Rogram Management

Facilities

Total

Cost ($ Mill ions)

64.204 (28 998 16.834 9 -991 2.173

(21.010) 21 .010

(1 33.965) 1 05 -876 28.089 21.265 10 .W 72 -91 8 33.983 4.-

20.033 22.233 35.61 7

469.728 J

-

4.. - ' ! REPR0,DUClBlLlTY OF THE OR lCMAL PAGE IS POOR^

L M W -Dl53408 Vol Iff

1 LOCKHEED MIS5:LES & SPACE COMPANY

Figure 4-9. Yarnmetric nDT&E Cost6 for FLOX/CH~ Single4tage. Ground-Based l'uge

4- 19

'; REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. -,.

LMSC -Dl 5340 8 Vol 111

t<f L':X ARI I Pl<lLH

NIPXlLI< 1'lt 1 Nk.IH', I I1IlC.l I

NAV I bA

Figure 4-10. Parametric Avionics, Power and Structures RDT&E Coete, FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage , Ground-Based Tugs


- - ." . ' .. :*a

A

BlUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR,

LMSC -Dl53408 V O ~ m

d Figure 4-1 1. Parametric Propulsion RDT& E Costs, FLOX/CH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Based Tugs

4-2 I.


MAIN EICIINL

L

f REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. .."


( , Figure 4-12. Parametric Floating-Item RDTBE Costs, FLOX/CH~ Single-Stage, Ground-Baeed Tugs

4-22

/ LOCKHEED MISSILES b; SPACE COMPANY

LMC-Dl53408 Vol I11

Stage-And-One-Iisl LO^/^.. 'l'ug ItIYI'L O Costa

This s ~ r t i u n prescnts l t W & E cost. lor ground-bas& Sp:rc 'l'ugx using 1.0+/11 lg

propcllmts. An HIYl'& 1.: cost point-estimate for a reforcnce stage-:md-onc-half

LO /lJll2 'l'ug FUIY.L'I)~ is prcsent~xl in Table 4-5; this concept features n reusable 2

corc shgc of 30,000 \b propellant loading and a set of expendable propellant tanks

with totiil propellant capacity of 27,000 lb.

Parametric RDT& E cosl data for Lhe drop tanks, only, are presented in Figure 4-13.

Applicable parametric RDT&E costs for the core stage are contained in Figure 4-1,

previously referenced.


8 'l'ihl~1 4-5. IIIYI'ON COST MITI L O ~ / L H ~ STAGK-ANII-ONE-HALF,

1 LOCKHEEO MISSILES &

Item

Structure

Core Stage

Drop Tanks

Avionics


Communications

lhstrumentation


Electrical Power

Fropu lsion

Moin Rocket Engine

Orientation Control

Initial Tooling


Test Hardwore

Test Operations

Training


Program Management

Facilities

Tota l

SPACE COMPANY

Cost ($ Mi l lions)

(121 .903)

83.756

38.147

(28.998)

16.834

9.991

2.173

(21 -01 0)

21 .010

(1 33.741 )

105.876

27.865

22.388

11 -236

80.470

36.798

4.809

25.661

28.262

35.931

551.207 -

'I

., A + REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. Wi


WB TAW R.D 1. A M E . COST

ZOO00 LBS. T w 7 E . T

LOX HMROQN PRCPELLANT

960 SEC. SPEClFlC I r f u S C

Figure 4-13. Parametric RDT&E Coeta for L%/LH~ Drop Tanks

4-2 5

I LOCKHEED MISSILES (L SPACE COMPANY


' l ' h (8 c-osts :~sscw*i:~lcd with lhc! lnvcstmcnt p11:luc of lhc Space 'rug progr;tm :trc rc*porlcd 1 in illis sc*c.Iion. 'I'llis Invc!stmcnl phasc, which ovc!rlnps lhc ItIY1'& 11: pI~:is(*, ~ I ~ C I U ~ C S

Ill(. i~equisilion ol' vt*hiclcs, l':tcilities, and cquiymcnl nccdcd lo supporl :in owr:ttionirl

Siutcc* 'I'ug ssyslc!til. C:o.c.lu spc?cifically included in this phasc comprise rwurring-

~)rcwlucliot~ c.xl)cndilurcs Sor lhc acquisition of the reusable 'I'ug fleet and spares; the

cxpcndul,lc 'l'ugs, clrop tanks, and their spares; and the facilities, tooling, and GSE

abovc and beyond lZI)T& E phase requirements. These costs also include management

and support scrvices incurred during the Investment phase.

The Investment phase cost data present the breakdown of total Investment costs

(as point values nnd parametric data) as well as theoretical first-unit costs. The

term theoretical first unit denotes that such values are of use primarily in costing

multiple-unit vehiclc buys and have little value aa anticipated unit cost estimates.

Learning curve factors used in calculating Investment phase costs werc as follows:

0 Tug core vehicles - 95 percent

Expendable drop tanks - 88 percent

For definition of the individual WBS entries used in the first-unit cost data, refer

to Chapter 2.


L%/LH~ Singlc-Stngc 'rug Lnvcstmcnt Costs - - I'oint cost data for Invc~stment phasc c,xpnditurcs in IAk/Lllg rcuw:lblc ground-bnscd

'rugs a r c presented in Tablcs 4-6 through 4-9. 'I'hcsc coats :trin lor ninglc-sl;~gc* 'l'i~gn

sizcd nt 3(i, 300 Ib ilnd 50,200 lb propell:ult larding. 'I'nblcs -1-6 4-7 prctsit~lt thtw-

rctic:ll firsl-unit costs for the two Tug aizcs, while T:lbloo 4-S and 4-9 prcsctrt t he*

tot;ll Invc\slmc*nt pIi;tsc costs for the two point dcsigm.

I%ir:~mctric* Invc*stnrcnt cost data for lhc s p c ~ t r u m of potential ~ / L H ~ single-shgc

'I'ugs a rc prc!scntc.<l in Fibwrcs 4-14 through 4-17. Figures 4-14 and 4-15 present curves

of pilramclric first-unit costs for reusable and expendable versions, respectively, of

the kmic L O ~ / L H ~ Tug concept. Note that the effect of omitting hardware for retrieval

and reuse is to reduce the first-unit cost of the expendable version by more than 50

percent. Figures 4-16 and 4-17 contain parametric data on the total Investment costs

for reusable and expendable versions of this Tug.

LOCKHEED MISSILES % SPACE COMPANY ,\-* - - ---- n + Z + T 4 % . ." ,

7 L.- . Y- 3 &' ."i::.i.2.,. .w , * ,&&,. :,


'I'ablc 4-6. FIIST-UNIT COST FOR ~ / L H ~ SINGLESTAGE, GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, - 36.3K)

l tern Cost ($ m i l lions)

Structure (Including Insulation and Propellant Feed) (3.1 68)

Core Stage 3.1 68

Drop Tank 0.000

Avionics (8.41 9) Guidance and Navigation 5.524

Communications 1 .995

Instrumentation 0.900 Power Supply and Distribution (2.371 )

Electrical Power 2.371

Propulsion (1.338) Main Rocket Engine 0.406

Orientation Control 0.932

Integration, Assembly, Checkout and Test 0.714

Tota I 1 6.01 0

Table 4-7. FIRST-UNIT CWT FOR L O ~ / L H ~ SINGLE-STAGE, GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, = 50.2K)

l tem Cost ($ millions)

Structure (Including Insulation and Propellant Feed) (3.470) Core Staw

Drop Tanks

Av~onics


Communications

lnstrumentation


Electrical Power

Propulsion

Muin Rocket Engine

Orientation Control Integration, Assembly, Checkout and Test

L--.- Total 1 1 6.389 1


Table 4-8. INVESTMENT COST FOR q / L H 2 SINGLESTAGE, GROUND-BASED TUG

(Wp - 30.3K) '?-

I tern Cost ($ m i I I ions) J

Reusable Fleet Cost (14 Tugs Plus Initial Spares and Support) 235.044

Expendable Hardware Cost (468 303)

Expendable Tugs (64 Units Plus Spares/Support) 468.903 Drop Tanks (0 Sets) 0.000

Facilities and Equipment 22.458

Total 726.405 1

I tem Cost ($ m i l lions) Reusable Fleet Cost (17 Tugs Plus lnitial

Spares and Support) 31 2.275 Expendable Hardware Cost

Expendable Tugs (14 Units Plus Spares/Support)

Drop Tanks (0 Sets) Facilities and Equipment


.-.,- . * .

F i k :

-. .. 1

" REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. w, .

LM8C -Dl59408 Vol UI

e 4-14. Parametric Nrat-Unit Costa for Rewable Veraionu of LOBhgZ Single-Stage Tugs


,. , . I

i REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. *,,,

LMSC -Dl68408 V O ~ m


Figure 4-16. Parametric Investment Costa for Reusable Verelm of LO.,/LHg Single-Stage 'i'-lgs


LMSC -Dl53408 VOI m

LES

Figure 4-17. Parametric Investment Costs for Expendable Veraions of L%/- Si~gle-Stage Tug8

4 3 3


~F2 /L11~ Singlc-Sktgc 'I'ug Invustmcnt Costs - -


Point investment-cost data for ~ ~ L F ~ / L H ~ reusable ground-basedlug sized at 47,800 Lb

propellant Loading arc presented in Tables 4-10 and 4-11. Table 4-10 colltains the

thcorclic:tl first-unit costs for this Tug while Table 4-11 presents the total Investment

phnsc cxpnditurc rcquircments.

L I R1r;trnctric data on thc Invcstrnent phase costs of single-stage L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs are I

l presenttd in Figures 4-1 8 through 4-21. Curves of first-unit costs for reusable and !

expendable versions of thc L F ~ / L H ~ Tug are given in Figures 4-18 and 4-19, respec-

tively; total Invcstmcnt costs for thcse same two versions are graphed in Figures 4-20

:lnd 4-21.


LMSC -01 53408 Vol 111

7':1I,lc 4-10. FI1WI8-UNIT COS1 FOR L I ? ~ / L ~ I ~ SINGLE-STAGE, GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, -: 47.8);)

Table 4-1 1. INVESTME NI' COST FOli L F 2 / L ~ 2 SINGLE-STAGE, GROUND-BASED TUG

(Wp = 47. SK)

l tem

Structure (Including Insulation and Propellant Feed)

Core Stage

Drop Tank

Avionics

Guidance and Navigc~tion

Communications

Instrumentation


Electrical Power

Propulsion

Main Rocket Engine

Orientation Control

Integration, Assemb ly , Checkout and Test

Tota l ..

Cost ($ millions)

(3 -498) 3 -498

0.000 (8.41 9) 5 -524

1 -995

0.900

(2.371 )

2.371

(1 -432) 0.487

0.945

0.847

16.567 - -

I Total I 368.061 I

l tern

Reusable Fleet Cost (1 7 Tugs Plus Initial Spores and Support)

Expendable Hardware Cost

Expendable Tugs (2 Units Plus Spores/Suppori)

Drop Tanks (0 Sets)

Facilities and Equipment

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY -., . "'7'rn" .AT--* ,? " llsra fl q * - q

Cost ($ millions)

327.977

(1 7.81 2) 17.81 2

0.000 22.272

HYclliiCCN FLI4RlNE Pf iL t5LCIN1

474.4 SEC ~ P E C I F l i IP;PCCX

Figure 4-18. Parametrir "'ret-Unit Goth for Reusable Verelons or LF~/L% sitgie-stage n y l ~

LOCKHEED MISSILES 8. SPACE COMPANY

I-.--..--. . . ,-a, i

THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR.

EXPENDABLE W X E

I W E E R 1jF EwINS EIXlAL I .

HYCV~YCN FLLURIM PRWCLLANI

979.4 Xi. C f i C I F I C IWlCSE

Figure 4-19. Parametric Firsbunit Coat8 for Expendable Version6 uf LF~/L% single-stage 'rugs

I LOCKHEED MISSILES (L SPACE COMPANY

L

UmIk@l:7GINAL PAG~ IS POOR

30 VEHICLES

.'I1 V f ti1iLf.C;

Id VEHICLES

I V E H I C L E

F lgur e 4-20. Parametric Inve8tment Coeb for Reueable Vere ion6 of LF2/LyL Single-Stage Tug6


b'RcPELL ANT rX l'.Hr 'LPS*

VEHICLES

- - - - - - - . - .---.- - . Figure 4-21. Parametric Investment Costa for Expendnble Version. of LFa/LE2

Single-Stage Tugs


- .m-+,

,. ' ~ ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ ! ~ l ~ l ~ l ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. : . ., .


FLOX/C H4 Single-Stagc 'I'ug Invcstmcnt COB t s _̂ .- - _ - . ---

Point Investment-cost data for a F L o x / C I ~ ~ rcuenblc ground-based tug sixcvl a1 92.000 11,

propcllmt loading a r e prcsontcd in Tables 4-12 .and 4-13. T d l c 4-10 conhins lhc.

thcorctical fi rst-unil costs for this Tug while Tablc 4-1 :1 presents the total Inveatmcnt

phase cxpcndi turc rcqui rcmcnts.

Parametric data' on the Investment phase costs for single-stage FLOX/CH~ Tugs are

presented in Figures 4-22 through 4-25. Curves of first-unit costs for reusable and

expendable versions of the F W X / C H ~ Tug a r e given in Figures 4-22 and 4-23. re-

spcctivcly; the total Investment costs for these same two versions a r e graphcd in

Fibwrcs 4-21 and 4-25.

4-40

LOCKHEED MIE31LES (L SPACE COMPANY

LMSC -Dl 53408 V O ~ rn

T:\blc 4-12. FIRST-UNIT COST FOR FLOX/CH~ SmGLE-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG


Core Stage

Drop Tank

Avionics I Guidance and Navigation I Cornmunica tions I Instrumentation


Electrical Pows

Propulsion I Main Rocket Engine

Orientation Control

Integration, Assembly, Checkout and Test

Total

Cost (5 mill ions)

Table 4-13. INVESTMENT COST FOR F'LOX/CH4 SINGLE-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, = 52. OK)

I tem Cost ($ million)

Reusable Fleet Cost (1 7 Tugs Plus Initial Spares and Support) 281.596

Expendob le Hardware Cost (58.085)

Expendable Tugs (9 Units Plus Spores/Support) 58 .085

Drop Tanks (0 Sets) 0.000

Facilities and Equipment 21.257

Toto l 360,938 i


IM17 COSTS

20000 LB5 IHtUST

REUSEIBLE HUX

N W S R Of ENGINES EWAL I .


FLOX %THANE PROPELLANT

r 1 4 . 0 XC. SPECIFIC IPPUSE

PROPELLANT 1IE !GI41 'L85.

F W e 4-22. Parametrlo FlrsbUntt Corn for Rrulblo vOr8bIU of FLOX'CH* Single-we

4-42'

WIT COSTS

ZOO00 LfrS. T W a l

EXPENi4R.E rYXX FLOX K T H A M PRYELLANT

W S R Of ENGIFES EQUAL I 9 1 9 . 0 K C . SPEClClC IrPUY

* * FIRST UNIT SYS INTClVEW

ELECTRICAL W

AVIONICS

Figure 4-23. Parametric Flmt-Untt Co8to for Expodable Verelau of FLOX/CH4 81ngle-Stage Tug6


.- --&. - , ,*- -.,.. . &.

f. REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. t

REUSEARE K f l C

MMSh OF EMGlNES ECUAL I

FLOX W.THAN PROFfLLINt

r1h.o SEC. SPECIFIC IWY

VEHICLES

VEHICLES

Figure 4-24. Parametric Investment C a t 8 for Reurrble Ver8 io~ of FLOX/CH4 Single-Stage Tug6


-., , . - A

I 1 #T THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. t .-

EXPEWABLE rUOC

MPI)EH OF ENGINES EOUAL I

Figure 4-25. Parametric Iaveetmsnt C o d br Eqmdnble Verrioar of FLOX/CH( SiWe-8ty. Tu(*


LO^/ LH,, Stage-and-One-Half Tug Inve8tmcnt Co8.t. - - The point coat data m lwestment phase expemdlture requlremeat. for an LO~/L% swc-and-one-half Tug eized at 30,000 lb core-stage and 27,000 Ib drop-tank prope! - lant weight8 arc presented in Tables 4-14 and 4-15. Table 4-14 containe the theoreti-

cal flret-unit costa for thls Tug while Table 4-15 presents the total Investment phnse

expenditure requirements.

Pammotric date on the Investment phrse corts of the expendable W2/L3 drop-tank set are plotted in Figurcs 4-2C and 4-27. Figure 4 2 6 grt+,.:m the first-unit coats over

a range of ~ l z e e from 8000 lb to 26,000 lb propellant; Flgure 4-27 presents the curvee of total Investment coat over the eame elze range.

LOCKHEEO MISSILES & SPACe COMPANY

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol 1 h 1

'l'd~le 4-14. FIItS'r-UNIT COST FOll L02/LH2 SFAGE-AND-ONK HALF,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(COIIE W, = 30K)


Core Stage

Drop Tank

Avionics


Communications

Instrumentation


Eiectrica l Power

Ropu lsion

Main Rc . " Engine

Orientation Control

Integration, Assembly, Checkcut and Test

Total

Cost ($ Mil lions)

Table 4-15, INVESTMENT COST FOR L02/LH2 STAGE-ANDONE-HALF,

GRTIUNIbBASED TUG

(CORE W, = 30K)

I tern Cost ($ Mi l l ions)

Reusable Fleet Cost (1 6 Tugs Plus Initial Spares and Support)

Expendable Hardware Ccrt

Expendable Tugs (1 Unit Plus Spares/tupport)

C Drop Tanks (236 Sets Plus Slxlres/Support) 23.962

Facilities and Equipment 21.821 Toto l 357.61 4

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY I

-. ,. , ,. , ,A

L.

REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. ;


Figure 4-26. Parametric First-Unit C O B ~ for -/LA2 Drop Tanb

4-48


-- - .--- - -.. .-t 4 ' REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. 1C

W(P lllY lNKSllENT C o s t

20000 LBS. TH*15.

LOxmWWO(PRlRLLANT

W SEC. SPECIFIC I-%

PROPELLANT EIGHT *LBS*

Figure 4-27. Parametric Investment Coats for L O ~ / L H ~ Drop Tank6

4-49


9ETS

SETS

Y T S

SET

Ol'lf IU'I'IONS COSTS

Thc costs associated with maintaining a reusable Space Tug program through its

twclve year operational phase (1979 - 1990) a r e reported in this section. The

Operations phase includes all activities associated with preparing the Tug for launch

(handling, checkout, fueling, countdown); all actidtias associated with flight of a

reusable Tug (mission control, recovery); and all activities associated with reusable

Tug refurbishment (inspection, repair and replacement of hardware as necessary,

pcriodic major ovcrhaul, and spares provisioning). The Operations phaac also

includes ksc management, direct range services, and facilities/cquipmcnt operation

and maintenance.

Important assumptions made in estimating Operations phase costs Were as follows:

The costs of Government manpower and equipment for mission control, tracking and data acquisition were omitted

a Tug operations were assumed to take place a t two sites, namely ETR and WTR

For definition of the individual WBS entries used in the Operatious costs, see

Chapter 2.

LOCKHEEO MISSILES & SPACE COMPA, 1-

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol TIT

LO /LH, s v -9 .- - - rations Coste

Point-co~t data for Operations phmc expenditures with I~02/LH2 reusnblc ground-based

'I'ugs arc pri~scntcd in Tablcs 4-16 and 4-17. Those costs are for single-stage Tugs

sizccl at :l(i,300 Ib and 50,200 Ib propellant loading, respectively.

Parametric data on L O ~ / L H ~ single-stage Tug operations costs are presented in

Figures 4-28 through 4-31. These graphs cover selected activity-level-dependent

e lcmnts of Tug operations only. Figures 4-28 and 4-29 comprise plots of follow-on

spares costs a s a function of propellant loading for reusable and expendable versions

of the L O ~ / L H ~ Tug, respectively; these a re calculated on a total cost basis. Figures

4-30 and 4-31 are curves of other key Operations costs as a functiqn of activity level;

these are plotted on a cost-per-flight basis and a re for rcusable and expendable

versions of the L F ~ / L H ~ Tug, respectively.

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY -..-...- - -____. -___ _ I --

'<UL ." , , 7 , . .A - "- d, 2: * , v,

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol IT1

I.. Y: "

,":&, < : ,, . >i *;*.

Table 4-lti. OPERATIONS COST BREAKDOWN Mm L O ~ / L H ~ SINGLU-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, = 36.3K)

Flight Operations (415 Reusable Tug Flights) I (22 -352)

I tem

Launch Operations and Services (493 bunches)

Launch Operations

Rope I Ian ts

Facilities and Equipment Maintenance

Engineering Support Program hnagement and Integration

Range/&lse Support

Communications and Control

Replacement Training

Recovery Operations

Cost ($ Mill ions)

(1 86.599) 1 10.487

1 3 6 9

7.007

27.000

27.000

13.536

Refurbishment (401 Refurbishment Cycles)

Vehicle Maintenance

Fol low-on Spares

Transportation Cost (51 1 Shuttle Flights) 2,555.000

Toto l 2,968.669

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY 1.

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol In

T:hlc 4-17. OPEltATIONS CO!W BREAKLYlWN FOR L02/Ln2 SINGLE-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(Wp = 50.2K)


l tern

Launch Operations and Services (51 9 Launches)

bunch Operations

Rope I lants


Engineering Support

Program Management and Integration

Range/~ase Support

Flight Operations (488 Reusable Tug Flights)



Recovery Operations

Refurbishmer rt (471 Refurbishment Cycles)

Vehicle Maintenance

Fol low-on Spares

Transportation Cost (562 Shuttle Flights)

Tota l

1

Cost ($ Mill ions) -. (194.147)

1 16.731

2,274

7.606

27.000

27.000 13.536

(22.568)

6.768 14.517

1.283

(240.557)

45.1 82

195,375

2,810.000

3,267.272 b

-....,. -* -'a.

REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR.

I 9CKHEED MISSILES 91 SPACE COMPANY

FIXLI'IW 1'54 SPARES C :#ST ff R FL li.ttT

20000 LB'; THRL5:

HEUyF AF' E FlOClE

NLtIElf H OF LNGINE5 EQIIAL I .

'S

'ARE

'ARE

:s

Figure 4-28. Parametric Follow-on Spares Costs for Reusable Lo2/LH2 Tugs

-. - .. . ,--.-... , L

REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. ;

Figure 4-29. Parametrio Follow-on Spare6 Coeta for Expendable L O ~ / L H ~ Tugs

I ,OCKHEED MlSSlLYS & SPACE COMPANY

I l ( J l

'HER

Al. 'PARES**

WBSYSlEnS

EWINt. 'PA

URE SPARES

' REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. : -

HL l v . X ARLE M3UE

NOIEKR LX EM,INCG €131 lAL 1 .

VEHICLE llAlNTENANCE

I f Y . EQIIP. PUlNlEWNCC MI A M CONIROL ERI' *eCRAl I N

NCMXR Of FLIGHTS PER YEAR

- - - . - - - - - - - . -

Figure 4-30. Parametric Opentiow Costa for Rauable L02/LH2 T'ugo

.. ,- REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORlGlNAl PAG~ .M;I@@

4 "U

t f I

C <I 'f HIJAH E tkCC L I"\ HjLYOi4 :I C'RIWTLL AN' i 3

MH3lh I# I N ~ l l U ' ~ IIAlA! I W r ~ l L , 4. -411 11 11. 1M1C'4 f S

? t !

Figure 4-31. Parametric Operatione Cortr ior EXpandrble LO2/W2

f LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY I

LF2/LII Singlc-Stage Tug Ope - -2 rations Coste

Point-cmst data for tho qxtratione phase expenditure roquircmcnts with a reusable ground-h~ed L F ~ / L I ~ ~ Tug sized at 47, ROO lb propetllant loading are presented in Tablc 4- 18. Thcse costu reflect the added complexity of operations required with LF2 oxidizcr (comparcd to LOZ), as well as the added cost of the propellant itself.

Parametric data on Operations costs for reusable and expendable versions of the

LF2/LI12 single-stage Tug are graphed in Figuras 4-32 through 4-35. Figures 4-32

and 4-33 plot total follow-on spares coste ae a function of Tug size. Figures 4-34

and 4-35 plot the cost pcr flight of key Operations activities ae a function of the

annual launch rate,

LOCKHEED MISSILES 6 SPACE COMPANY 1

LlMSC-Dl53408 Vol T*!

T ~ b l c 4-18. OPERATIONS COST BREAKDOWN MI13 LP2/LH2 SINGLE-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, .- 47.8K)

--- -- - --

l a u n c h ~ ~ e k t i o n s and Services (51 9 bunches)

launch Operations

Rope I Ian ts


Engineering Support

Rogram Management and Integration

Range/~ase Support



Rep lacement Tm ining

Recovery Operations


Veliicle Maintenance

Fo! low-on Spares


Tom I

Cost ($ Millions)

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY 1

'z REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR Mmi

Figure 4-32. Parametric Follow-cm Spare6 Coeta for Reusable L F ~ / L H ~ Tugs


: .~ REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL FAGL IS POOR. T

Fl.,are 4-33. Parametric Follow-on 8pm-ee Costs for Expendable LF2/La Tuge


V E ! i l ~ . i f HAINIFtJANI

I t Y , LiA*IP. MA NS h a iONTROL CRY WERAT IONS H OPERATIWS

r&?!ER cY FL?C+iTS PCR YEAR _.

.-

Figure 4-34, Parametric Operations Costa for ReUdle LF2/LH2 w

. * : ~ ~ ~ : ~ ~ 1 ~ 1 U r ( I l l l ~ ~ b ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ OR IGlN A L PAG t I S POOR

~&? 'L

NUrBER CC FLIGHTS PER YEAR

-...---.- - - - --

Figure 4-36. Parametric Operatiom Costa for Expsa-10 LF~/T.~H~ l\lr*

b I a m - a - n n c r c ~ t r e PAP^ COMPANY

FI,OX/C 1 Si nglc-Stage Tug @orations Costs - - - .- -. -. . ..--

Point-cost data for the Operations phase vxpenditure requirements with a reusable

ground-based FL0X/CI14 l'ug sized at 52,000 lb propellant loading are presented in

Table 4-19. Thesc costs reflect the added complexity of operations required with

FMX/CHq propellants (compared to L%/UiZ ) as well as the added cost of the

propellant itself.

Parametric &ta on Operations costs for the reusable and expendable versions of the

FLOX/Cli4 single-stage Tug a re graphed in Figures 4-36 through 4-39. F i y r e s 4-36

and 4-37 plot total follow-on spares costs a s a function of Tug size. Figures 4-38

and 4-39 plot the cost per flight of key Operations activities a s a function of the annual

flight rate.

LOCKHEED

.-

4-64

MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY


Td)Lt! 1-19. OPEllATIONS COST BREAKDOWN FOR FLOX/CH~ SINGLE-STAGE,

GROUND-BASED TUG

(W, = 52.OK)

hunch Operations

Prope I lonts

Foci lities and Equipment Maintenance

Engineering Support

R ogram Management and lntegmtion

Range/~ase Support I

(506 Launches)




Recovery Operations

Cost ($ Mi llions)

(235.570)


Vehicle Maintenance

Fol low-on Spares

1 LOCKHEED MISSILES & 'ACE COMPANY


Tota l

2,610.000

3,105.002

-- v'T. REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR.

I,: 1

Fr*.LW U1 SPAHLS (051 PER FI- ICHI

~0000 LBS. T W J l

REUSEABLE tOOE

M n e E R OF ENGINES EWAL I .

FLOX I'€THANC WW)PELLANT

r 1 v . o SEC. SPECIFIC IWSE

PROPELLANT WEIWT *LBf* .. - . - . -

Figure 4-7%. Parametric Follow-on m e 6 C O B ~ for Reusable FLOX/CH4 T q p


l lAL SPARES'.

I S;BSYSTEr(S SPARES

T ENGlb" SPARES

TLRE s p a s

-.

4 REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR. m

fOLLW 1 3 4 SPARES ':9ST R R FL I C H T

2OUOO LBS. T H W S T

'U SPARES"

Figure 4-37. Parametric Follow-on m e 8 Code for Expendable FLOX/CH~ Tug8


ACTlVllV LEVEL DtKNXNT COSTS REVSCARE ROC€ FLOX MTWH PRWELLANT

9Ib.O SEC. SFECIFIC I W S E

VEHICLE MAINTOUWE

FACILITY, EQUIP. WIWXMMC

I t

Figure 4-38. Parametric Operation@ Coat8 for Rewable M X ) X / q

4-68

f LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

(Rl.

A C T I V l l Y LEVEL DEPENICNT COSTS EXPEHMaE KIOE FLOX MTMH RmLLANT

OF F L I W T S PER VEAR

Figure 4-39. Parumtrio Op@&iOIU Corm bor F W C H I Tugr

t4O2/I41I2 Stu~0-ttnd411~-l ldt Tug Qx - -. - ------ rations Coete

'I'ho point coats for qwratione phase oxpunditare requirements with a stage-and-one- half 1 4 / L 1 l 2 Wcc Tug conccpt are presented in Table 4-20. Thcse costs arc for u concrvt with a corc-stago propellant loading of 30,000 lb and a drop-tank prqml! *.;ri

loatiing of 27,000 Ib.

elro

LOCKHEED MISSILES 6 SPACE COMPANY

I II ' -1- -

Y ,

-i

.t3 ,?

4 :4

9 "-8 k" d g .. - .I.

.a:

.*

. ,

-t. En i.

-

I t* ic :

t 1 tem Cost f$ Mil lions)

launch Operations and Services (496 Launches) (1 86.790) Launch Operations 111.205 Rope I Ian ts 1 .308 Facilities and f quipment Maintenance 6.741 Engineering Support 27.000 Program Monugement and Integration 27.000 Range/bse Support 13.536

FIight Operations (479 Flights with Core Stage Reuse) (22.475) Comrnunicat ions and Control 6.768 Replacement Training 14 -428 Recovery Operations 1.279

Refurbishment (463 Core Stage Refurbishment Cycles) (233.661 ) Vehicle Maintenance 44.776

Fol low-on Spares 1 88.885

Transportation Cost (628 Shuttle Flights) 3,140.000

Tota l 3,582.926

. . .I i

: REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL P A G ~ IS POOR *-- ..

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol nI

'IqL! funclir,g rcxpircrncnts, by f i~c i l l year, of n reusable to2/Ll12 Space Tug (50.200 lb propcll;tt\t loading) a r e graphed in Figurc 4-40. This figure was presented to typify

thc cqtenditurc yattcrt~ of thc cntirc clasu of r c u ~ a b l e Tugs. Thc funding curve! wno

dcrivcd using dcvclopmcnt nntl proct~rcmcnt sp;ll; data (c.g., 5 vcars for ItIYI'RrK) in

combination with standard etati stical spread functione. No smoothing c)f lhi- cqn8ndi-

turcs was pcrformcd. 'I'lrcac coats include only 'I'ug expendittires (Itl) ' l '&lS, Invv~t-

mc!nt, Op~~.;rtions); Shutllc uncr fc*cs ancl pt~ylwrl coats wcrc ~p~cificrtrlly r~xclui~cd.

'I'his c#hunu-tcri~ti<. rcunablo-'l'ug funding curve fcuturr*~ :l ~)c.~k in ft~ntling during thc

c*:~rly ~ C ( L I ~ (FP 1975 - 1079) pc imr i ly caused by ltD'I'&IS cxpcncliturcs untl sccondorily

by Invosttncnt phasc rcquirc.mcnts. l%e magnitude of thc peak year requirement ex-

cceds $200 million, The RDT&E component of this funding can be alleviated slightly

by a vigorous program of supporting research and technology in the F Y 1973 - 75, and

can be further decreased by accepting lower Tug performance (e, g., no retrieval

capability; storable propeliantsl. However, no appreciable reduction in the early-

year peak can be achieved wi a o u t phased introduction of the reusable Tug and uee of

thc orbital injection stage for early operational missions.

Once thc operatiot~al phase of the reusable Tug program arrives, funding levcle

clcdinc to juat ovcr $50 millior. per ymr. This bfficicncy in operations limit6 totill

'I'ug c!qcl,cmiiturcu to $1.4 1 billion, in c:ontrnat to $1. (i4 billion for the rnont compctitivc

orhit injccalion sbgc.

41-72

/ I nC,KHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

IaMS(!-I 1153408 Vol U1.

74 76 78 80 82 04 86 88 90

FISCAL YEAR

I 1 nP1+HEFT) MISSILES & S P A C E C O M P A N Y

L

' REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR .aP',

I,MSC-D15:14OH V o l 111

Chapter 5

PAY LOAD COSTS AND CHARACTER1 ST1 CS

This final chapter in Volume III presents cost data - and other important character-

istics - for the unmmctl spacecraft delivered by the Space Tug system. The organi-

zntion of Lhis chaplcr is as follows. F i rs t the overall approach to payload costing is

rcv icwd to cstal~lish a basis for the estimates that follow. Then the contents of the

data shects that makc up lllc p~yload data b s c are dcscribcvl in detail to guidc thc

rc;ulcr in interpreting lhis information. Finally the actual payload data shccts for

~ u o s t of the unmiinn~d s p x c ~ r a f t in the mission model are prcscntcd. This informa-

Lion c-overs NASA and applications-agency progr:ims only; I h l ) paylo:i(l <lal:i :\re con-

r:\incxi in :\ scpnr:~lc cl:issificul :ippcndix (limilccl distr~hution).

'rhc shrt i l rg point in thc p a y l a d cost analysis was a mission modcl comprising 64

programs (-483 spacecraft placements) that was supplied to Lockheed by NASA. This

modcl was limited to those missions for which a Tug is potentially required; hence i t

excluded low-earth-orbit spacecraft directly deliverable by the Shuttle alone. User

agencies represented in the model were NASA (both the Office of Space Sciences and

the Office of Applications), the Ilepartment of Defense, and various non-NASA appli-

cations agencies. Data included with the model (augmented by Aerospace C~rpora t ion

results from the STS Economic Analysis study) also p rov id~d the orbital parameters,

sizes, weights (by subsystcm), powcr requirements, and flight schedulcs for a l l of

the biisclinc piy1o:lds considcrcvl in the mission modcl.

Thc c o s b for Lhcsc h s c l i n c p~y loads wcrc lhun calcultlled using a lxlrtlmclric ccmt

methodology applied against the spacecraft weights and characteristics. The cost es-

timating relationships used to perform these computations were historically-derived

curvrs of cost ns a function of technical characteristics (primarily weight) for the

f pr inc ip~ l subsystcrns of unmanned spacecraft. The resulting baseline payload costs


- REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR.

.I I:

*-.n*rransr̂ . . . - .+ A .--. .- ..- - - -- - - . ..- '.* .% .+ '" a -. - w ..- .

LMSC- 1)153408 Vol 111

wcrc chcckccl against comparable cstimatos dcrivcd by Acraspacc Corporation in the

S1'S Kconomic: Analysis study and found to be in agrccrnent.

Ilaving eshblish~d thc bqselinc spacecraft costs, the final step in thc payload costing

t a sk w:w to dcvclop algcrithms to express the cost savings possible with Space Tug

systcms. ILi-scd on the work performed by Lockheed under the original Payload Effects

.4n:tlysis stucly (NASw-2 156) tllrce classes of payload cost savings were idcntificd for

tllc 'rug, ~xtm~ly:

e . Mnss/Volunlc: ....... - These arc the savings possible when payload weight and volumc capacity (in excess of baseline rcquirernents) are availahlc, and low-cost fabrication techniques can be used because of the relaxed design tolerances.

a Rkyimd Retrieval and Reuse: These are savings achieved when a spacceraft retrieafrofirbit is refurbished, experiments are replaced as needed, and the swcecrafL is returned to operational service (in lieu of purchasing a new unit).

- Accessibility: Thcse savings, formerly called risk acceptance, arise from the fact that less testing (both RDT&E and acceptance) can be allowed for spacc- craft that arc 3ccessiblc for repair in case of failure on orbit.

The savings attainable with each of these three effects were quantified in the form of

cost and weight estimating relationships, and other algorithms. These were automated

into the logic of the Lockheed STAR/ANNEX program in such a way that appropriate

low-cost spacecraft estimates could be generated as required by the available payload

capdility of a given Tug in a given mode.

PAYLOAD DATA

This section contains data on the costs and characteristics of the unmanned payloads.

This information is arrayed on data sheets (one sheet per payload). Following is an

explanation of the payload data sheets. The payload data sheets for all spacecraft

except the DoD programs are presented in Tables 5-1 through 5-48. These are

arrnngcd in numerical order in acc~vdance with their assigned number in the reference

mission mudel. Thcse shccts contain all of the mission and cost (I:\t:k neccss:lry to

compute .md spread all of the c ~ s t incrt?ments of one program from thc mission moclcl.

The data are grouped into blocks, details of which are given below. 'I'hc major blocks

C:, are as follows:

5-2

I 1-OCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY

e Mission identification

o Mission definition

a Acccphblc mission modes

.. Schedule of all cost producing cvcnts

[.isling of weights and costs

Miscellancwus cost and wdght parameters

Cost spretld parameters and misccllancous data

The contents of each of these blocks is as follows: 1 Mission uen~~ficatiok. This gives the mission number in the so-called Fleming

model of March 1971 and the mission title. The subfield is provided to allow for

variance within a mission, such as sending the same payload to a variety of

orhi ts.

Mission Definition. 'I'his lists the final orbit into which the payloacl is to he --

0 placed, the AV required (above the velocity in a circular orbit at 100 nm), pay-

load life, and the number of active payloads required. The payload dimensions

and density are for the baseline payload, before application of payload effects

and repackaging; these dimensions are taken from Aerospace Corporation data.

.Acceptab te Mission Modes. This lists the possible payload modes (expendable

or retrievable) and Tug modes (round trip placement and retrieval in one flight,

placement only, retrieval only, expendable Tug) and states which modes may be

used for the qubject mission.

hchedule. The first two lines of the schedule arc for expcndahle payloads and -.

arc t.a1.<:n from thc mission model. 'Ihe launch schc~lule also applics to payload

placement when the payload is retrieved and refitrl~ishcd (in the pl-cscnl study

only refurbishment on the ground was considered). The retrieval schedulc was

developed by LMSC during the study; it is designed to minimize new buys and

also to permit combinations of placement and retrieval on one flight as far as

possible. The resulting new-payload acquisition schedule for a retrievable pay-

load Is then shown. The schedule of new-experiment RDT&E, for these cases in

LOCKHEED MISSILES & SPACE COMPANY ..I"----.-.-r - . -

, , . 'C . . ... +

.i_

*- --- m y , . ' . ,

" , <., J .

LMSC-Dl53408 Vol III

i whicbl~ tl~i* c~spc~i.in~~nt is r:h:tngc?d rtvory few y cars, is Liken ftwm Ac*l.osp:lcc* ('or-

E pomticw :~n:~lyscs. 'L'hnt part of opc~utionn cost nslsociativt with orl~i t:ll eupp11-t. i

indt?cndcnt of launcll rate, is applied in every j,e:3.:1r in which :tn :~sli\risk is sho\v~l. I

k Weight and Cost Parameters. Weights and costs are listed here by subsystem.

These data are derivccl as follows:

Uqseline Weight From Aerospace dab.

b w Cost Weight From weight estimating rclationships (WERs) developed by LMSC from results of Payload Effects Study, for full application of low-cosl techniques.

Baseline Costs From LMSC cost estimating relationships (CERs)

Low Cost From LMSC CERs based on results of Payload Effects Study, for full application of low-cost techniques.

The sub-heading Risk denotes application of accessibility savings (formerly

0 called r isk acceptance) in which a cost reduction is made, at constant total mis-

sion reliability and confidence, because it is possible to check out a payload

after placement and bring it back if it has failed. No Wsk denotes costs when

this effect is not applied. The factors in parentheses hcsidc the cost ta1)ulations

for experiments, stnlctures, and electrical power allow for complcxity in thcsc

subsystems and are applied to the costs derived from the CEHs for a complexity

factor of unity.

The ratio of inert weight (less propellants) to total weight was maintained constant

at the factor shown, and the propellant weights were computed accordingly. The

"minimum weightsw are stops to prevent the payload weight from ever going below

the baseline weight for the expendable mode, or going below the baseline weij&t

(as modified by providing refurbishability) for the retrievable mode. The weight

increment for refurbishability is shown on the third line of the first column; it is

derived from an LMSC WER and applies to either baeeline or low-cost payloads if

refurbishable. It results from spacecraft design modularization and hardware

provisions for retrieval (e. g. , rendezvous/docking equipment). Pruvis ion w.w

c, made for fixing Ihc weight of some subsystems (filth line, sc!coml cwlumn) when it


LMS('-l)l5J.IO8 Vol UI

w:~s k*11 l11:11 low-c-osl. loc!hniclucs worc no1 :q)plic::d)lc. '1'11~ low-c:osl p:lvlo:ltl wcbipj~t

inc.littltltl ~)l 'ovih it111 for ~.cCit~~l)ixl~:ll)ilily ([or IliaLori c::ll t.c:~aons). In ol.tltkr lo ink r.-

~)ol:~lt* (for o:lt.li:kl :~l)plicalion of cost t.cduc:tion will1 weight incrr!:lsc) thr! wciglit

c:h:mgc'c!s duc lo low-cost lcchniqucs only, the factor &/c - B/L - IC ICY (L/c)), which

rc.prc!scnts this inc re w e , was computed.

'Chc accessibility snvings (i. e. , Risk Acceptance) were applied i ~ . full to rc-

trievnblc payloads. For expendable payloads, which could still be checked

out after reaching low earth orbit but before placement by the Tug, 40 percent

of the full savings was applied (third column).

Cost Spread Parameters and Miscellaneous Data. These entries are largely

self explanatory. The duration of the R&D phase (or phases, if new-experiment

R&D is required) and the investment phases (purchase of new units), and their

spread-function shapes are given. The launch-rate-dependent operating cost

is that associated with a launch and is applied in the years of hunch. The

launch-independent costs listed are per-year per-vehicle active on orbit, and

are applied as shown in the schedule. The Fixed Portion Initial Investment

(usually zero) provides for addi+ional ground facilities if required by the mis-

sion. I'rovision was mndc (but not used) for retrieving less than 100 pcrccnt

of the plnced p:tylond wcnight. l'hc Cost Confidencc cntry i s u sul~jcqlivc cvnlua-

lion of thc v:tlitlity of thc cost data.

5-5

/ LOCKHEED MiS51LES & SPACE COMPANY

Tab

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