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https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx
Monetary Policy Group May 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions April 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
Content 1 Executive Summary 1
2 The Thai Economy 3
2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector
2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position
2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates
2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability Stability and financial condition of corporate sector
3 Link to related statistics and contents 13
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
1
1. Executive Summary
In April 2020, the Thai economy further contracted. The tightening of COVID-19 containment measures in both Thailand and abroad temporarily disrupted several economic activities. The tourism sector substantially contracted due to Thailand’s inbound travel restriction measures. Merchandise exports excluding gold contracted at a higher rate, consistent with the decline in trading partner demand. Private consumption indicators highly contracted as a result of weakening purchasing power and the containment measures. Private investment indicators and manufacturing production continued to contract significantly following demand conditions and economic uncertainties. However, public spending continued to expand from both current and capital expenditures. In this month, the government began to transfer financial relief to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak which would support the economy going forward.
On the stability front, headline inflation was more negative from energy prices as a result of falling global crude oil prices and the government’s electricity bill subsidy measure. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account registered a deficit. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows: The number of foreign tourist arrivals contracted by 100 percent from the same period last year,
with none of foreign tourist arrivals in this month after the implementation of Thailand’s inbound travel restriction measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Consequently, tourism-related businesses, especially hotel and restaurant as well as passenger transportation, were affected substantially.
The value of merchandise exports contracted by 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Excluding a historical value of gold, exports value highly contracted at 15.9 percent. This was due to the high contraction in exports of automotive and parts, petroleum-related products, electrical appliances and machinery and equipment, consistent with the substantial decline in trading partner demand and global crude oil prices. However, exports of some products expanded such as electronic products, agro-anufacturing products and agricultural products, due to the benefit during the period of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Private consumption indicators highly contracted from the same period last year in all spending categories. This was a consequence of weakening supporting factors including employment, income and consumer confidence, coupled with the holidays postponement during the Songkran festival and lockdown measures taken to contain the escalation of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this month, however, the government began to transfer financial relief to those affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Manufacturing production further contracted in line with weakening domestic and external demand.
Private investment indicators continued to contract significantly from the same period last year, from the high contraction of investment in machinery and equipment in all components. As a result of weak domestic and external demand which deteriorated business profit and sentiment, together with high excess production capacity, businesses decided to delay their investment plan.
The value of merchandise imports sharply contracted by 17.0 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, imports value contracted at 13.8 percent. The contraction was from all categories including raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods, consistent with softer economic activities.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
2
Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year both in current and capital expenditures. Current expenditures expanded from purchases on goods and services, especially expenditures for the COVID-19 containment purpose. Meanwhile, capital expenditures expanded from the disbursement of both the central government and state enterprise.
Overall economic stability remained sound, though more vulnerable. Headline inflation was more negative from energy prices as a result of falling global crude oil prices and the government’s electricity bill subsidy measure. Meanwhile, core inflation remained positive but continued to decline consistent with weakening domestic demand. Labor market was more vulnerable as reflected by the increase in the number of jobless claims on the social security system. The current account registered a deficit mainly from income balance due to dividend payout by corporate sector, coupled with the significant drop in travel receipts. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
3
2.1 Supply
Farm income contracted at a higher rate from the same period last year, due to a significant drop in agricultural outputs affected by the drought and the deceleration in agricultural prices. Manufacturing production further contracted, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. Service sector contracted at a higher rate as a result of the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak and the containment measures.
Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1 2 1 2 2
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr
Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 1. 1.1 . . 1.8 1. -10.1
Agricultural productionP -0.7 . 1. 1. . -6.5 . -13.2
Agricultural price
1.9 . 2. 2. . 8.8 . .
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
60708090
100110120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP %MoM sa
Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. 1.2 2. 11. 1 . . . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. . 2 . 1 . 2 . . 1. - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 2 . 1 . 22.1 2. .2- Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . . 21. 1 . 2 . .1 .1- Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . 21.2 . . Petroleum . . .2 11. . 1 .2 . . 1 . 11. Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 1. . .2 1. . .1Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . . . . . . 2. Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. . 1. 1.2 2.1 . 11. IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 12.2 .1 . . 1 . 2. Electrical Appliances . . . . 1. . . . 1. 1. Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . . 1 . . 1 . 1 .2 1. Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . . . . 1 .2 . 1 . Others 1 . . . . .2 .1 . . . 1. MPI 1 . . 1. . .2 . . 1 . 1 .2 . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
1 . 2. .1 1. 2. . .1 .
Capacity Utilization (SA) . . . . . .1 2.1 .
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
455565758595
105115125
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
-0.1 %
-43.4 %
-0.7 %
%MoM sa
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
%MoM sa
-8.7 %
-10.9 %
Mar = -1.1 %**
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
(%)Share2016R
2019 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP
Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . . .2 .
Automotives 1 . . . . 1.2 . . 1 .1
Petroleum . .1 2. . . . 2. .
Chemicals .2 . . . . .2 . 1.
Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . . .
Cement & Construction . . . . . .2 . .
IC & Semiconductors . . . . 1.1 . . 2.2
Electrical Appliances . . 1. . . 2. 1.2 .
Textiles & Apparels . . . . 2. . . .
Hard Disk Drive . . .2 2. 1. 1. 2. .
Others 1 . . . . .1 . 2. .
CAPU sa 1 . . . . . .1 2.1 .
Capacity Utilization (sa)
Source: Office of Industrial Economics
Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
4
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)
Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Hotel & Restaurant (10%) Professional Services (4%)
Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
5
2.2 Domestic Demand
% YoY 2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -1.2 -6.5 -6.2 -6.9 -2.1 -1.8 1.1 1.3
Construction Materials Index 1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.3 -1.1 17.0 15.7
Real Imports of Capital Goods 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -9.2 -10.9 -17.5 -3.8
Real Domestic Machinery Sales -3.8 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -0.4 -4.3 -4.5 -3.5
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 2.4 -8.7 -2.5 -15.4 -11.7 -8.0 -25.4 -9.8
Private Investment Index -1.2 -4.0 -2.7 -5.2 -6.8 -8.7 -6.1 1.9
Private Investment Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
30405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
406080100120140160180
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Source: Bank of Thailand
%YoY 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Mar AprP %MoM sa
Non-durables index 3 3.1 4 6 1.1 1.1 2 -11.7 -11.8Semi-durables index 1 7 8 -2.2 -4.2 -6.9 -1.9Durables index -12.0 22.0 37.5 -23.7Services index 3.0 1 1 -11.0 -25.0 -31.9 -8.4
less Net tourist spending 2 -41.0 -77.1 89.0 -58.6
PCI 5 4 6 3 1.9 1.0 -2.7 -15.1 -8.6
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Private consumption indicators contracted substantially from all spending categories. Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate considerably, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. However, public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand.
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma
Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
6
60
110
160
210
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Apr7.9%
Apr28.9%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
Source : Bank of Thailand
Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)
30
40
50
60
Jan 2014
Jul Jan 2015
Jul Jan 2016
Jul Jan 2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
Jul 20 37.8
Apr 20
Business Sentiment Index
Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
70
90
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
Apr14.1%
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019
FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar Apr
Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 648 539 165 175 149(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.4) (-2.1) (-3.2) (1.2) (-21.4)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 758 186 356 337(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (-6.9) (58.0) (28.5)Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -148 -219 -21 -180 -188Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -125 -17 -2 -25 -13Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -23 -205 -201Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -23 -200 -198Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 111 28 54 162Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 872 342 191 152
60
110
160
210
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Apr7.9%
Apr28.9%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
7
2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
US Euro Area* (Mar) Japan (Mar)
G3 Retail Sales
Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg
Index (Jan 2015 = 100)
Apr 20
The current account registered a deficit mainly from the income balance due to dividend payout by corporate sector, coupled with a deficit in service balance due to the significant drop in travel receipts. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from the asset position.
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PHINDO
MY
THTWCN
SGKR
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprApr
(%MoM)
Agriculture . . -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 . . . . Fishery . . -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 . . . . Manufacturing . . -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 . .2 2. .
Agro-manufacturing 2. . -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 . . . 2. Electronics .2 . -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 . . . . Electrical
Appliances . . -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 . 2. . .
Automotive . . -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 .2 2 .2 . 2. Machinery & Equipment . . -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 . . . 2.
Petroleum Related . . -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 . . 2 . . Total (BOP Basis) . .2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 . 2.2 . .2
Ex. Gold . -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 . . . . Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 2.2 . . .
Export Value Apr 2020 = 17.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 15.4 Bn USD
Mar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 19.6 Bn USD
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprApr
(%MoM)
Consumer . 2. 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 . . . .2Raw material & Intermediate . . -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 . . . .
o/w Fuel . .2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 . . 2 . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 2. . . .
Capital 2 . 2. -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 . . . 2.
Others . . 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 . . . .
Total (BOP Basis) . . -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 . . . .
Ex. Gold . -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 . . . 2.
Ex.Gold&Fuel 2. -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 2. . . . %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueApr 2020 = 15.3 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 15.3 Bn USD
Mar 2020 = 18.6 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
8
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD1. Assets 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2 2
Thai portfolio investment 2 22 2 - Equity security investment 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2
Loans 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2
2. Liabilities 2 2 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2
Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 22 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2 2
Loans 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2
Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2 2
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE YTD
Trade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . 2. 2. .
Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 22. . .2 . 2 . . .
%YoY .2 . 2. . . . 2.2 . .
Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . .2 2. . . .
%YoY . . .2 . . . . . .
Net Services, Income & Transfers . .2 . . . . . .2 .
Current Account . . 2 . . . . . . .
Capital and Financial Account 2. . . . . . . . .
Overall Balance . . . . . . . . 2.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
%YoY (Share in 2019)
20192019 2020
%MoMsaH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprP
China (27.6%) . . . . . . .2 . .
Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . .2 2. .2 . .
Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)
. . . . . . . . .
Russia (3.7%) . . . 2. . . . . .
Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)
. . . 2. . . . . .
India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . . . . .
Others (9.6%) . . . . 2. .2 . . . Total(million persons)
.2 (39.8)
. (19.8)
. (20.0)
.2 .
. (10.3)
. (6.7)
. (0.8)
. (0.0)
.0
Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
9
2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions
Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.
Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
-120-80-40
04080
120160200240280
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20
MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)
BusinessHousehold
%
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Billion baht
Changes in Total Corporate Financing
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
Apr 20P
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y
Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA
As of 25 May 20
0.50
0.740.54
1.13
0.45
Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Apr 20 25 May 20
-month deposit rate
Average of 5 largest Thai banks**
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MLR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MRR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
1.42
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.47
8.54
1.46
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.50
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.31
7.58
8.
8.54
1.33
1.51
1.11
6.08
7.31
7.59
8.
8.44
0.75
1.26
0.84
5.93
7.22
7.41
6.64
8.24
8.32
0.75
1.21
0.71
5.53
6.77
6.98
6.24
7.25
7.98
0.61
1.14
0.74
5.36
6.75
6.91
6.00
7.22
7.89
End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya
Source: Bank of Thailand
Total corporate financing continued to increase from the previous month, due to an increase in business credits which mostly used for working capital purpose. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in April 2020 and the NEER depreciated from the previous month.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
10
-2.7% -2.2%-1.7% -1.6% -1.2% -0.7%
-0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% 0.3%
0.4% 0.7%
5.6%
0.7%-0.1%
1.7%0.2%
-0.4%0.6% 0.3% -0.5%
0.5% 0.4%
-1.2%0.2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
IDR INR EUR THB MYR CNY VND SGD KRW JPY TWD GBP PHP
Avg of Apr 20 compared to avg of Mar 20
Avg of May 20 compared to avg of Apr 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement
May 2020(Average data
until 25 May 2020)
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
% p.a.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
29-D
ec-1
730
-Jan-
1827
-Feb
-18
28-M
ar-1
830
-Apr
-18
30-M
ay-1
827
-Jun-
1825
-Jul-1
827
-Aug
-18
24-S
ep-1
824
-Oct
-18
21-N
ov-1
821
-Dec
-18
22-Ja
n-19
20-F
eb-1
920
-Mar
-19
22-A
pr-1
923
-May
-19
21-Ju
n-19
19-Ju
l-19
20-A
ug-1
917
-Sep
-19
16-O
ct-1
914
-Nov
-19
16-D
ec-1
915
-Jan-
2013
-Feb
-20
12-M
ar-2
010
-Apr
-20
13-M
ay-2
0
HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD
As of 25 May 2020
Regional Exchange Rate Volatility
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132
29-D
ec-1
7
16-F
eb-1
8
5-Ap
r-18
28-M
ay-1
8
13-Ju
l-18
3-Se
p-18
19-O
ct-1
8
7-De
c-18
28-Ja
n-19
15-M
ar-1
9
8-M
ay-1
9
26-Ju
n-19
14-A
ug-1
9
30-S
ep-1
9
18-N
ov-1
9
8-Ja
n-20
25-F
eb-2
0
13-A
pr-2
0
NEER25
USDTHB (RHS)
Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)
Appreciation
May USDTHB = 32.07NEER25 = 122.48
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
11
2.5 Financial stability
The Number of Firms and Employees Registered for the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75)
Note: The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.
Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour
33,465 42,051 40,102 22,842 39,30392,264
465,218
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Firms Employees
114 163 161 113 153445
2,406
Headline inflation was more negative mainly from energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained positive but continued to be on a downward trend in line with weaker domestic demand. Labor market was more vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
Headline inflation contribution%YoY
Apr-2.99%
( ) Share in Headline Inflation 0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contribution%YoY
Apr0.41%
( ) Share in Core Inflation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 16% of total jobless claims
Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33 %, SA %, SA
Jobless Claims
Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.
Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
12
-2.0
-1.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall
OPM (sa) RoA (sa, RHS)Percentage Percentage
Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors
Note: ROA and OPM are calculated using sum by sum method with seasonal adjustment. *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical.
Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/61
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63 Q
1/61
Q3/
61 Q
1/62
Q3/
62 Q
1/63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall
ICR Times
Note: ICR is calculated using sum by sum method.*Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical.
Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand
Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) by Sectors
External Stability Indicators
Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE
Solvency Indicators
Current Account / GDP (%)
Debt / GDP (%) < /
Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /
Debt Service Ratio (%) 6.8 6.7 0 7.5
Liquidity Indicators
Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time
Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times
ST Debt / Total Debt (%)
Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)
Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
External Debt Outstanding
Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change Apr20-Mar20H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar AprE
1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors
- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit
5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
13
3. Link to related statistics and contents
Agricultural sector
Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices
Agricultural production: Agricultural products
More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)
Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate
More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th
Real estate sector
Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)
More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance
Central government revenue: Government revenue
Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)
Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)
More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th
Labor market
Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)
Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)
Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)
More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
14
Inflation
Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)
More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th
Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand
Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index
Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report
Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey
Economic and Monetary Conditions, April 2020
15
Contact
Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637
Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650
Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300
Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096
Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647
Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639
Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877
The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147
External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726
Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186
Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090
Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645
Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636