3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 314 ~ Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902 ~ (213) 740-5514 ~ www.usc.edu/create

National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events

University of Southern California

Economic Consequences of and Resilience to Terrorism

October 2012 to September 2013

Adam Rose

University of Southern California

adam.rose@usc.edu

"This research was supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under Cooperative Agreement No. 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security or the University of Southern California."

Cooperative Agreement No. 2010-ST-061-RE0001

Department of Homeland Security

December 31, 2013

ii

ABOUT CREATE

Now in its tenth year of operation, the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism

Events (CREATE) was the first university-based Center of Excellence (COE) funded by University

Programs of the Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security

(DHS). CREATE started operations in March of 2004 and has since been joined by additional DHS

centers. Like other COEs, CREATE contributes university-based research to make the Nation safer by

taking a longer-term view of scientific innovations and breakthroughs and by developing the future

intellectual leaders in homeland security.

CREATE's mission is to improve our Nation's security through research and development of advanced

models and tools to evaluate risks, costs and consequences of terrorism and natural and man-made

hazards and to guide economically viable investments in homeland security. We are accomplishing our

mission through an integrated program of research, education and outreach that is designed to inform

and support decisions faced by elected officials and governmental employees at the national, state, and

local levels. We are also working with private industry, both to leverage the investments being made by

the Department of Homeland Security in these organizations, and to facilitate the transition of research

toward meeting the security needs of our nation.

CREATE employs an interdisciplinary approach merging engineers, economists, decision scientists, and

system modelers in a program that integrates research, education and outreach. This approach encourages

creative discovery by employing the intellectual power of the American university system to solve some

of the country’s most pressing problems. The Center is the lead institution where researchers from

around the country come to assist in the national effort to improve homeland security through analysis

and modeling of threats. The Center treats the subject of homeland security with the urgency that it

deserves, with one of its key goals being producing rapid results, leveraging existing resources so that

benefits accrue to our nation as quickly as possible.

By the nature of the research in risk, economics, and operations, CREATE serves the need of many

agencies at the DHS, including the Transportation Security Administration, Customs and Border

Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, FEMA and the US Coast Guard.. In addition,

CREATE has developed relationships with clients in the Offices of National Protection and Programs,

Intelligence and Analysis, the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office and many State and Local government

agencies. CREATE faculty and students take both the long-term view of how to reduce terrorism risk

through fundamental research, and the near-term view of improving the cost-effectiveness of counter-

terrorism policies and investments through applied research.

In 2011, the University of Southern California (USC) and a team of 23 partner institutions were awarded

a new 5-year Cooperative Agreement resulting from a recompetition of the Center’s charter. This annual

report covers the third year under Cooperative Agreement 2010-ST-061-RE0001, the ninth year overall of

CREATE’s DHS funding, from October 2012 to September 2013.

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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 3 2. Research Accomplishments ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1. Advance the breadth and depth of economic consequence analysis ................................................................. 5 2.2. Behavioral Impacts of Terrorist Attacks ........................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Modeling Supply-Chain Impacts and Resilience, with special application to cyber threats ............................ 6 2.4. Research Products ............................................................................................................................................ 7 2.4.1. Publications and Reports .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.4.2. Presentations ................................................................................................................................................ 8 3. Research Transition .............................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1. Advance the Breadth and Depth of Economic Consequence Analysis............................................................. 9 3.2. Behavioral Impacts of Terrorist Attacks ........................................................................................................... 9 3.3. Modeling Supply-Chain Impacts and Resilience, with special application to cyber threats .......................... 10 3.4. Collaborative Projects .................................................................................................................................... 10 3.5. Models, Databases, Software Tools, Invention Disclosures and Patents ........................................................ 10 4. Education ........................................................................................................................................................... 12 5. Outreach ............................................................................................................................................................. 13

1. Executive Summary

Progress continues on an integrated body of research on the economic consequences of and resilience to

terrorism and natural hazards. Its goals are to advance the state of the art of basic understanding and

modeling of key features of the topics, to build operational models, to apply them to key issues and case

studies (including those at the request of DHS), and to help transition the models and findings for use by

DHS and others.

A. Advance the breadth and depth of economic consequence analysis. Progress in Year 9 emphasized the

further incorporation into the CREATE economic consequence analysis framework of behavioral

responses to terrorism (arising from such factors as risk amplification and stigma) and of resilience

(inherent and adaptive ways to build resilience capacity and to mute losses following a disaster). These

have been further integrated into various economic models, most notably computable general equilibrium

(CGE), this past year, applied to analyzing the tradeoffs between urban security and commerce (UCASS),

to the economic impacts of a major tsunami hitting Southern California, and to the competiveness and

macroeconomic impacts of additional staffing of Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) agents at U.S. land

border crossings. Some of this research was done in collaboration with CREATE affiliates at Monash

University The UCASS project broadened our framework for estimating the consequences of

interdiction of terrorism by including spillovers, such as delays and invasion of privacy and

improvements in the business environment, of such mitigation measures as bag and parcel checks, traffic

check-points and closed circuit TV cameras. CREATE continues to develop and refine a suite of state-of-

the-art economic consequence analysis models to evaluate all of the above important considerations. This

year we also published our significant practical tool for rapid estimation of economic consequences of

earthquakes. This is the beginning of accelerated efforts to be undertaken in Year 10 to expand the

reduced form capability to the consequences of radiological and nuclear attacks for the DHS Nuclear

Detection Office (DNDO)

B. Modeling Behavioral Responses to Terrorism and Their Economic Impacts. This research continued

the collaboration with CREATE researchers in psychology and decision sciences. Together with

economic affiliates at Monash University, we continued to translate experimental and survey findings on

the social amplification of risk and stigma effects into changes in economic behavior. For example, after

a terrorist attack using an insidious agent such as chlorine gas, workers and investors are likely to require

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a premium to return to the affected area, while shoppers and tourists are likely to require a discount to

return as well. These are incorporated into a CGE model to estimate the direct and indirect economic

impacts. In Year 9, CREATE affiliate James Geisecke and I worked closely with Bill Burns and his

research team on translating his survey estimates of alterations in risk perceptions into parameters of a

CGE model. We also examined the nature and length of stigma effects. The study found that the ensuing

behavioral effects in terms of business interruption were estimated to be 35 times the size of ordinary

property and casualty losses. In conjunction with Bill Burns, Heather Rosoff and Richard John, on a

TSA project we estimated behavioral effects stemming from simulated terrorist attacks on an airport or

airliner were one to two orders of magnitude times larger than ordinary resource loss effects

C. Modeling Supply-Chain Impacts and Resilience, with special application to cyber threats. The

CREATE economic consequence methodology is especially relevant to modeling supply-chain aspects of

terrorism. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis essentially portrays the economy as a set of

interconnected supply chains. Each sector is modeled both in terms of its own set of direct inputs, as well

as its role as an input into other sectors, but the successive rounds of forward and backward supply chain

connections can be computed as part of the general equilibrium solution (economy-wide quantity and

price interactions). In Year 9, we examined the supply-chain impacts of a major tsunami to hit Southern

California, with the impacts primarily channeling through damage to shipping and the Ports of Los

Angeles and Long Beach. We also developed a conceptual framework for the development of economic

resilience indicators. Unlike attempts by others, who have simply used vulnerability indicators (e.g.,

literacy rates, disabled populations per capita income), our index places an emphasis on actionable

variables (e.g, stockpiling critical inputs, building flexibility into production processes, ability to relocate

business activities).

Page 5 of 14

2. Research Accomplishments

2.1. Advance the breadth and depth of economic consequence analysis

CREATE researchers continued to develop and apply a framework for the analysis of the economic

consequences of bioterrorist attacks and how it has been made operational (see Figure 1 for an overview).

Until recently, economic loss estimation focused almost entirely on standard Target-specific (Direct)

Economic Impacts and Loss of Life. The major expansions of the CREATE framework have been the

addition of Resilience and Extended linkages (behavioral and systems). Direct Remediation costs are

increasingly being inserted into the analysis in cases of insidious agents, such nuc/rad/bio/chem. All the

direct impacts are subject to indirect effects (often referred to as multiplier, general equilibrium, or

macroeconomic effects). This past year we added economic impacts of mitigation/interdiction, including

spillover effects, to the analysis.

Figure 1. Economic Assessment Framework Overview

I served as Co-PI of the DHS Urban Commerce and Security Study, which examined the extent to which

there might be a trade-off between enhancing urban security and economic activity in urban areas. The

operation of security measures, such as traffic checkpoints, closed circuit TV cameras, and construction

of traffic barriers, do stimulate economic activity, but some of the expenditures will raise the direct and

indirect cost of doing business and some requires that spending elsewhere in the economy is curtailed. In

addition several of these various measures generate negative spillover effects because they cause delays

and inconvenience, represent an invasion of privacy, and deter people from these areas because they

dramatize the possibility of terrorist events or lead to congestion or loss of privacy. On the other hand,

some individuals may be more attracted to work, shop, or invest in areas with heightened security. CGE

represents an excellent organizing framework for all of these various considerations. Investment and

operation of security measures were incorporated into the model. Survey estimates of various spillover

effects were included as well in terms of cost-incurring or cost-saving factors. Post-Docs Misak

Avetisyan and Sam Chatterjee and I contributed the economic consequence analysis for the UCASS

Report This involved the applications of our New York Metropolitan Area CGE model developed in a

prior analysis of the economic consequences of 9/11, and working with CREATE Research Assistant

Professor Heather Rosoff in translating her survey research on spillover effects of urban terrorism

mitigation measures into economic impacts, both positive (CCTV) and negative (bag and parcel

checkpoints). Our research on the UCASS study has received a contingent acceptance for publication in

Risk Analysis (Rose et al., 2013).

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CREATE's suite of consequence analysis models were also applied to natural disasters. We began our

third collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey on the latest California Golden Guardian analysis—a

major tsunami to hit Southern California. We adapting a California CGE model developed from our work

on the second USGS scenario (a severe winter storm) for this purpose, as well as capitalizing on our

analysis of resilience in a port disruption study completed in Year 7 for the U.S. Coast Guard.

CGE Models are the state of the art and very powerful; however, they are time-consuming to construct

and even to run. Therefore, we have developed a more facile “reduced-form” approach to estimating

economic consequences from a wide range of man-made and natural hazards. The approach applies

regression analysis to the causes of economic loss. CREATE Post-Doc Nat Heatwole and I published our

“reduced form” estimating equation for earthquake events (Heatwole and Rose, 2013). . We plan to

approach potential funding agencies (FEMA, Cal EMA) about expanding this research to other natural

hazards and to terrorism.

2.2. Behavioral Impacts of Terrorist Attacks

This research team also continued to develop a bounded rationality framework to analyze extreme

behavioral reactions to catastrophic risk, calibrates production and utility functions to data collected by

other CREATE researchers, generate estimates of the range of behavioral linkages, apply the model to

various case studies, and transfer the modeling capability to other researchers and DHS staff. The

economic impacts of many terrorist attacks extend far beyond the usual direct and indirect impacts. One

area of negative impacts that can be as many as two or three orders of magnitude greater than the direct

effects is the “fear factor.” This stems from the social amplification of risk, where media attention and

individual and social psychological responses cause people to over-react to an event in the short run, as

well as stigma effects in the long run. Two studies translated work by CREATE researchers, as well as

data and insights collected by DHS staff, into a formal economic modeling framework. It begins with

individual decision functions of producers and consumers in the context of bounded rationality. These

utility and production functions were then inserted into a computable general equilibrium model in order

to ascertain indirect market effects. In collaboration with James Giesecke, a CREATE faculty affiliate at

Monash University, and CREATE affiliates William Burns and Paul Slovic, we completed studies of the

behavioral economic impacts of fear following airline industry attacks (Burns et al., 2013; Rose et al.,

2013b) and of a chlorine gas attack (Giesecke et al., 2013) .

2.3. Modeling Supply-Chain Impacts and Resilience, with special application to cyber

threats

The CREATE economic consequence methodology is especially relevant to modeling supply-chain

aspects of terrorism. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis essentially portrays the economy as

a set of interconnected supply chains. Each sector is modeled both in terms of its own set of direct inputs,

as well as its role as an input into other sectors, but the successive rounds of forward and backward supply

chain connections can be computed as part of the general equilibrium solution (economy-wide quantity

and price interactions). In Year 9, as a member of a large team coordinated by the U.S. Geological

Survey we examined the supply-chain impacts of a major tsunami to hit Southern California, with the

impacts primarily channeling through damage to shipping and the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

(Rose et al., 2013. In conjunction with Elisabeth Krausmann of the European Commission Joint Research

Centre (Ispra), we also developed a conceptual framework for the development of economic resilience

indicators that are applicable to cyber and other threats. Unlike attempts by others, who have simply used

vulnerability indicators (e.g., literacy rates, disabled populations per capita income); our index places an

emphasis on actionable variables (e.g, stockpiling critical inputs, building flexibility into production

Page 7 of 14

processes, ability to relocate business activities). The research was published in a new interdisciplinary

journal (see Rose and Krausmann, 2013).

I also played a major advisory role. This included serving on the National Institute of Building Science

Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council Board of Directors and co-organizer of the annual symposium,

International Society for Interdisciplinary Faster Risk (ARE IM) Board Of Direct and as a member of

Journal’s world board, and organizer of its annual conference.

2.4. Research Products

Research Product Metrics #

# of peer-reviewed journal reports published 6

# of peer-reviewed journal reports accepted for publication 1

# of non-peer reviewed publications and reports 1

# of scholarly journal citations of published reports >500

# of scholarly presentations (conferences, workshops, seminars) 10

# of outreach presentations (non-technical groups, general public) 4

2.4.1. Publications and Reports

CREATE PUBLICATIONS

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Rose, Adam - University of Southern California

1. Rose, A., M. Avetisyan, and S. Chatterjee. 2013. “A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs between Urban Commerce and Security, Risk Analysis, forthcoming.

2. Rose, A. and E. Krausmann. 2013. “An Economic Framework for the

Development of a Resilience Index for Business Recovery,” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 5: 73-83

3. Dormady, N., T. Szelazek and A. Rose. 2013. "The Potential Impact of an

Anthrax Attack on Real Estate Prices and Foreclosures in Seattle," Risk Analysis, available in electronic form; print version forthcoming.

4. Rose, A. and D. Wei. 2013. “Estimating the Economic Consequences of a

Port Shutdown: The Special Role of Resilience,” Economic Systems Research 25: 212-32.

5. Oladosu, G., A. Rose, and B. Lee. 2013. "Economic Impacts of Potential

Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Biothreats and Biodefense S12: 001.

6. Heatwole, N. and A. Rose. 2013. "A Reduced-Form Rapid Economic

Consequence Estimating Model: Application of Property Damage from U.S. Earthquakes," International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 4(2): 20-32.

7. Rose, A. and T. Kustra. 2013. “Economic Considerations in Designing

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CREATE PUBLICATIONS

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Emergency Management Institutions and Policies for Transboundary Disasters,” Public Management Review (15)3: 446-64.

8. Roberts, B., A. Rose et al., The Impact on the U.S. Economy of Changes in Wait Times at Ports of Entry, Report to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, CREATE, USC, March 2013.

9. Burns, W., P. Slovic, R. John, H. Rosoff, A. Rose, M. Avetisyan, O. Chan

and T. Sellnow, Public Risk Perception Surveys Risk Perception, Public Confidence, and Economic Impacts of Risk Amplification Following a Terrorism Event, Final Report to TSA CREATE, USC, May 2013.

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2.4.2. Presentations

CREATE SCHOLARLY PRESENTATIONS

Rose, Adam - University of Southern California

Conference Presentations—Year 9:

Rose, A. “Measuring Economic Resilience,” Santa Fe Institute Annual Trustees Meeting, Santa Fe, NM,

November 1, 2012.

Rose, A. et al., "Economic Impacts of Water Supply Disruptions on the Los Angeles Economy," invited paper

presented at the annual meetings of the North American Regional Science Council, Ottawa, Canada,

November 2012.

Rose, A. and C. Huyck. “Business Interruption Insurance for Terrorism,” Invited Plenary presentation,

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Conference on Terrorism, November

2012, Paris, France, December 2012.

Rose, A. and C. Huyck. “Business Interruption Insurance for Terrorism,” AON Insurance, London, UK,

December 2012.

Roberts, B., A. Rose et al. Briefing to CBP leadership, May 2012, Washington, DC; also presented to

Canadian Embassy, December, Washington DC.

Rose, A. “The Economics of 21st Century Threats to the Built Environment,” Invited Plenary presentation,

National Institute of Building Science Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council Board

Rose, A. et al. "Economic Impacts of Water Supply Disruptions on the Los Angeles Economy," Western

Regional Science Association Meetings, Santa Barbara, CA, February 2012.

Rose, A., “Measuring Economic Resilience,” LUCRAM/CREATE/START Workshop on Resilience

Stockholm, Sweden, March, 2013.

Rose, A. “Economic Recovery to 21st Century Disasters,” National Homeland Security Conference, Los

Angeles, CA, May 2013.

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CREATE SCHOLARLY PRESENTATIONS

Rose, A., “An Economic Framework for A Business Resilience Index,” Virginia Tech- Universidade do

Minho Fourth Conference on Economic Resilience, Braga, Portugal, July, 2013.

Rose, A. “The CREATE Economic Consequence Analysis Framework,” seminar presented at the London

School of Economics, London, UK, July 2013.

Rose, A. and C. Huyck. "Business Interruption Insurance," Invited presentation at the National Bureau of

Economic Research Conference on Insurance Markets and Catastrophe Risk, Guy Carpenter, London, UK,

July 2013.

Rose, A. “Defining and Measuring Societal Resilience from an Economic, Environmental and Personal

Security Perspective,” United Nations Development Programme, New York, NY, August, 2013.

Rose, A. and E. Krausmann. “Economic Resilience Indicators,” Fourth Annual Conference of the

International Society for Integrated Risk Management (IDRiM), Newcastle, UK, September 2012.

3. Research Transition

3.1. Advance the Breadth and Depth of Economic Consequence Analysis

Research advances in this area have enabled CREATEto develop a suite of various economic

consequence analysis models to apply to broad range of both funded projects and projects requested at

short notice by various DHS agencies. CREATE has developed the most comprehensive economic

consequence analysis framework to date, and has applied it to several profound and challenging issues.

We have the reputation of doing high quality, path-breaking, and objective research. We are thus

becoming the “go-to” group to perform many macroeconomic consequence analysis studies, as

exemplified by recent contracts from CBP, TSA, NBIC, and USGS. We have also pioneered the

development of reduced form models, which is thus far been demonstrated in the case of the rapid loss

estimation of earthquakes software we have developed, Peter Dixon’s reduced form CGE modeling, and

Adam Rose’s reduced form REMI modeling. This is enabled us to secure a contract from DNDO

developer reduced form capability for nuclear/radiological threat scenarios. We look forward to working

with SPAHR and the DHS Regulatory Office to further advance this area. We hope to be able to attract

funding from FEMA, Cal EMA, and other state and local emergency management offices to expand our

rapid estimation methodology to other natural threats and to terrorism.

3.2. Behavioral Impacts of Terrorist Attacks

Research advances on behavioral impacts, in conjunction with other create risk analysts and behavioral

economists, have expanded the range of impacts that can be included in economic consequence analysis.

This work also fits nicely into research by CREATE's risk group in performing benefit-cost analyses of

risk mitigation and communication. This research has found that standard economic impact analyses are

likely to understate economic consequences of terrorist attacks relating to insidious agents

(nuke/rad/chem/bio) and high-profile attacks (airliners and airports) by one to three orders of magnitude.

We have been able to leverage research in this area to attract funding from FEMA and TSA. Many

opportunities exist for expanding this research, especially with FREMA

Page 10 of 14

3.3. Modeling Supply-Chain Impacts and Resilience, with special application to cyber

threats

CREATE has pioneered the field of economic resilience. Our most recent research has provided a

conceptual framework and guidelines for empirical construction of resilience indices. This research

indicates that studies that ignore resilience are likely to overestimate economic consequences of less than

catastrophic events by as much as three-or four-fold. We have combined our research on resilience with

supply-chain analysis to identify ways to reduce the ripple effects of economic disruptions. Resilience

research is been very high profile and has attracted by such organizations as the Center for Policy, Federal

Reserve Bank of New York, and the United Nations Development Programme. It has also been source of

collaboration with other OUP centers such as STA RT, the European Commission Joint Research Centre,

and also attracted interest by private sector enterprises such as Dun & Bradstreet and ImageCAT. We are

looking for opportunities to continue this work in the cyber area with various government agencies and

the private sector, including opportunities to expand the range of business interruption insurance.

3.4. Collaborative Projects

COLLABORATIVE PROJECTS Project Title Institution Contact Name CREATE Lead Status

Economic Impacts of Wait Times at U.S. Land Border Crossings Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami Defining and Measuring Societal Resilience

U.S. Customs and Border Protection U.S. Geological Survey United Nations Development Programme

Jennifer Pennese Anne Wein Alan Fuchs

Adam Rose Adam Rose Adam Rose

Completed Completed Completed

3.5. Models, Databases, Software Tools, Invention Disclosures and Patents

Research Transition Product Metrics #

# of products delivered to DHS, other Federal agencies, or State/Local 2

# of invention disclosures

# of patents filed

# of patents issued

# of products in commercialization pipeline (products not yet to market)

# of products introduced to market

Research Products Transitioned to Governmental Agencies

RESEARCH PRODUCTS

Project Leader(s)

Date Delivered

Item Agency Receiving Product

Agency POC Transitioning Status

Heatwole/ Rose

10/12 Reduced Form Rapid Estimation Model for Earthquakes

OUP Intended for FEMA or Cal EMA

Rose 2/2012 U.S. CGE Model DHS Office of Policy N/A Delivered and in use

Page 11 of 14

Other Research Products

SOFTWARE PRODUCTS

CREATE Project Leader(s)

Name of Product

Type of Product

Application Area Intended Users and/or Clients

Specific Users and/or Clients

Status Other Comments

Heatwole Rose

Reduced Form Rapid Estimation Model for

Earthquakes

Model and software

tool

Economic impact modeling

Emergency managers,

Risk analysts & policy makers

FEMA, Cal EMA, Local emergency

management offices prototype

Currently completing similar software for Tornadoes; other hazards &

terrorism are potential applications as well

Page 12 of 14

4. Education

Education Initiatives (Please detail below) #

# of students supported (funded by CREATE) 6

# of students involved (funded by CREATE + any other programs) 2

# of students graduated 2

# of student theses or dissertations 0

# of contacts with DHS, other Federal agencies, or State/Local (committees) 12

# of existing courses modified with new material 0

# of new courses developed 1

# of new certificate programs developed 0

# of new degree programs developed 0

CREATE STUDENTS

Last Name First Name

University School Department Degree Research Area Funded

Chan Oswin USC Price Public Policy

MPP Economic Assessment √

Lu Katherine USC Price Public Policy MPP Economic Assessment √

Prager Fynnwin USC Price Policy, Planning & Development

PhD Economic Assessment √

Shears Brett USC Price Public Policy MPP Economic Assessment √

Zhou Xie

Jie Wei

USC Beijing Normal

Price

Public Policy Natural Hazards

PhD PhD

Economic Assessment Economic Assessmetn

√ √

CREATE RELATED COURSES, CERTIFICATES AND DEGREE PROGRAMS

Instructor University New or Modified Course Title

1. Rose USC New Economic Impact Analysis

2. Rose USC Modified Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

CREATE RELATED AWARDS AND RECOGNITION

Name (Who or What) Award/Recognition Date Other Details

1. Regional Economic Models, Inc.

Excellence in Economic Analysis Award

October 2012

REMI Model has been used CREATE Projects

Page 13 of 14

5. Outreach

- Provided briefings to CBP leadership, Canadian Embassy, and GAO on CREATE Border Wait Times

study.

- Consultant to U.S. Communications Agency on the Role of Equity in Israeli-Palestinian Land

Exchanges.

- Appointed to the National Institute of Building Sciences Multi-hazard Mitigation Council. The MMC is

the guiding organization for the original development and subsequent advances in the FEMA's HAZUS

loss estimation tool. Member of it organizing committee for Symposium..

- Served on the Board of Directors of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management;

served on the organizing committee for the Fourth Annual Meeting in Newcastle, UK in September 2013.

- Serving on the National Institute of Building Science Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council Board of

Directors and co-organizer of the annual symposium, International Society for Interdisciplinary Faster

Risk (ARE IM) Board of Direct and as a member of Journal’s world board, and organizer of its annual

conference.

- Consultant to United Nations Development Programme on resilience for its Human Development

Report 2014.

- Collaborated with START and LUCRAM on a resilience research initiative.

- Collaborated with the European Joint Research Centre on a study of resilience indicators

- Developed a working relationship with the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado at

Boulder. Its director, Kathleen Tierney and I submitted a proposal to NSF on "Measuring Dynamic

Economic Resilience to Disasters."

- Completed a report for the U.S. Geological Survey on the economic impacts of their third major

disaster scenario—California Tsunami.

- Served on the boards of the Center for Sustainable Cities and Mega-cities Center at USC, both of which

have a major emphasis on disaster research.

- Served on the editorial board of the new Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Energy

Journal, Energy Policy, Resources Policy, and Journal of Regional Science.

Outreach Initiatives #

# of memberships in major DHS-related Committees

# of contacts with DHS 12

# of contacts with other Federal agencies, or State/Local (committees) 4

# of contacts with State/Local (committees)

# of Workshops and Events 12

# of media events 2

Page 14 of 14

Membership in Major DHS Related Committees, Years 1-9

MEMBERSHIP IN MAJOR DHS-RELATED COMMITTEES

Committee Institution Time Period

Larry Bank

Transportation Infrastructure Security Work Group Department of Transportation 2008

Vicki Bier

Committee to Review the DHS’s Approach to Risk Analysis National Research Council 2009

Special Committee on Disaster Preparedness Planning Legislative Council, State of Wisconsin 2006-2007

Office of Infrastructure Protection, Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate 2010-11

Student Greg Hammond was the co-chair for the Glacier Edge Elementary School 2012 Science

Fair in Verona, WI.

Department of Homeland Security (Robert Ross, Debra Elkins, Julie Waters, Natasha Hawkins,

Irv Susel, Ben Fransen)

Meetings with External Organizations, Years 1-9

MEETINGS WITH EXTERNAL ORGANIZATIONS ABS Consulting AIR Worldwide AON Argonne National Lab Baseline Management Compnay Brookings Institution Cal EMA Canadian Embassy CCICADA Center for National Policy CENTRA Technologies CIA Community and Regional Resilience Institute Costal Hazards Center CPB DARPA DNDO Executive Office of the President European Joint Policy Center European Research Entre FAZD FEMA GAO Guy Carpenter Homeland Security Institute ImageCaT Consulting LA Department of Water and Power

LA Emergency Services Department LUCRAM Metropolitan Water District LA Economic Development Corporation MMI Consulting Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research National Academy of Sciences National Bureau of Economic Research Natural Hazards Center NBIC NSF OECD ORNL PACER PERI Reginald Economic Models, Inc. RMS Sandia National Lab Santa Fe Institute START TSA United Nations Development Programme UPMJ Center for Biosecurity USCG USGS Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services