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Economic Growth in Latin America: Past, Present and Future Perspectives.Andrs SolimanoECLAC, United NationsNovember 11, 2004
Table of ContentsThe Recent Growth Performance of Latin AmericaThe Growth Record of Latin America of the Last Four DecadesVolatilityChanges in Growth PerformanceTowards Explaining Growth PerformanceFuture Prospects
A. The Recent Growth Performance of Latin America
Figure 1. THE ECONOMIES OF THE REGION GREW BY 1.5% OVERALL IN 2003. ECLAC PROJECTS A GROWTH RATE OF 4.5% IN 2004
Amrica Latina y el Caribe: 4,5%Figure 2. PROJECTED GROWTH RATE BY COUNTRY, 2004
Chart3
12
9.2
7.1
5.5
5
4.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3
3
2.9
2.5
2
-1
-2
2004
Tasa porcentual de crecimiento anual
G-L1
5.14667446073.4463803432
2.24313356030.616892936
0.448695599-1.1200190595
3.73053541562.1428021341
0.3467225384-1.1604033472
-0.6308310095-2.0974392772
1.62524817380.1506279009
4.42.9745914963
&A
Page &P
PIB
PIB per cpita
AMRICA LATINA: TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL
L1
Producto interno bruto total
(Millones de dlares a precios constantes de 1995)Tasa crecimiento
19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042004 a/
Argentina184,015180,348199,554218,776231,637244,956237,949250,965271,081281,450271,945269,698257,729229,867249,865267,6067.1
Bolivia5,2455,4775,7735,8716,1206,4136,7157,0167,3577,7277,7517,9278,0578,2788,4858,7653.3
Brasil598,872571,293576,827575,232601,216638,662665,422681,910702,723703,979710,219738,102747,496758,853757,335785,3563.7
Chile47,95949,53353,15356,66662,96066,10472,03677,01082,20684,94684,54088,32491,43193,26996,392101,0194.8
Colombia68,02870,25077,18079,87783,20188,16892,50394,29597,42298,15394,43596,70998,05299,674103,402107,2283.7
Costa Rica8,7579,1039,24810,06410,78011,27711,71611,81212,45113,47914,55514,81814,99115,40716,27016,8723.7
Cuba54,85653,38246,51540,30332,99933,17934,07037,17238,17238,17840,36842,90044,14344,64845,80947,1833.0
Ecuador16,65717,14018,07518,72519,06919,77420,19620,80821,89722,36921,08621,27122,43123,28323,91225,2275.5
El Salvador6,8557,1847,3847,9238,4338,9379,4959,66310,07010,44810,79911,01911,21111,45211,68111,9152.0
Guatemala11,49111,84112,28312,88913,40913,96214,65615,09415,75816,56417,20217,78918,25318,64519,03719,6083.0
Hait3,9223,9373,9443,7283,4312,8283,0963,2693,3733,4703,5723,6453,6223,6153,6303,557-2.0
Honduras3,3503,3453,4353,6363,8943,8203,9604,1054,3084,4494,3844,6284,7534,8775,0335,2093.5
Mxico320,540336,889350,988364,047370,520386,962363,234383,005409,171430,151445,678475,679474,320477,641483,850502,2363.8
Nicaragua2,9102,9092,9102,9142,9043,0033,1833,3913,5263,6353,8864,0574,1824,2124,3094,4603.5
Panam5,6146,0556,6007,1427,5227,7577,9068,1188,4988,8929,2069,4489,4849,5569,94810,4455.0
Paraguay6,9477,1587,3377,4617,7627,9998,3558,4458,6488,5948,5888,5338,7378,5188,7408,9582.5
Per43,22640,87541,98241,81843,81949,40253,64354,98258,75358,40158,91060,51560,64663,59966,14368,9204.2
Repblica Dominicana10,3019,7399,83210,61610,93011,44211,93512,78913,83214,86016,05417,22917,74318,51118,43718,252-1.0
Uruguay14,51614,58615,14616,40716,99518,19817,76718,68619,69720,56219,85119,46518,76616,50516,91818,4749.2
Venezuela56,00859,38465,08469,38269,47267,37570,64270,65075,50375,95971,79374,50177,09170,15763,56271,18912.0
Subtotal 20 pases1,470,0681,460,4271,513,2491,553,4771,607,0751,690,2161,708,4801,773,1851,864,4451,906,2671,914,8211,986,2541,993,1411,980,5672,012,7562,102,481
Tasa de crecimiento PIB 20 paises-0.73.62.73.55.21.13.85.12.20.43.70.3-0.61.64.40
PIB per cpita3,4823,3963,4563,4863,5443,6643,6423,7183,8463,8703,8263,9083,8633,7823,7883,900
Tasa de crecimiento PIB per cpita 20 paises-2.51.80.91.73.4-0.62.13.40.6-1.12.1-1.2-2.10.23.0
Poblacin total
(Miles de habitantes)
Pas1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
Argentina32,08132,52732,97433,42133,86934,31834,76835,22035,67236,12536,57837,03237,48737,94438,40138,854
Bolivia6,5196,6696,8226,9807,1427,3097,4827,6627,8488,0398,2338,4288,6248,8249,0259,227
Brasil145,565148,030150,429152,770155,069157,343159,608161,860164,086166,296168,495170,693172,891175,084177,268179,443
Chile12,88313,10013,32013,54513,77113,99414,21014,41914,62214,82215,01815,21115,40215,58915,77415,956
Colombia34,28934,97035,66436,37037,08537,81038,54239,28540,04240,80441,56642,32143,07043,81744,56245,302
Costa Rica2,9983,0763,1533,2313,3113,3913,4753,5633,6543,7473,8383,9254,0084,0894,1674,245
Cuba10,53510,62810,70810,78010,84510,90610,96411,01911,06911,11511,15811,19911,23811,27311,30611,338
Ecuador10,02910,26410,50210,74110,98111,22111,46011,69811,93712,17512,41112,64612,87913,11213,34313,572
El Salvador5,0265,1105,2075,3165,4315,5505,6695,7875,9086,0316,1546,2766,3976,5186,6386,757
Guatemala8,5328,7498,9789,2159,4629,7159,97610,24410,51910,80211,09011,38511,68711,99512,30912,629
Hait6,7866,9427,0857,2207,3527,4847,6227,7647,9098,0568,2058,3578,5118,6688,8278,988
Honduras4,7344,8795,0285,1805,3365,4945,6545,8165,9816,1486,3166,4856,6566,8287,0017,174
Mxico81,66683,22684,80386,39187,98389,57191,14592,71294,27595,83097,36798,881100,373101,847103,301104,735
Nicaragua3,7293,8243,9324,0504,1744,3004,4264,5524,6794,8074,9385,0715,2085,3475,4895,631
Panam2,3512,4112,4612,5122,5642,6172,6702,7252,7802,8362,8922,9483,0043,0603,1163,172
Paraguay4,0954,2194,3404,4604,5804,7034,8284,9585,0895,2235,3595,4965,6365,7785,9226,068
Per21,31521,75322,18022,59723,00923,42123,83724,25824,68125,10425,52525,93926,34726,74927,14827,547
Repblica Dominicana6,9437,0667,1927,3187,4457,5737,7057,8397,9778,1168,2568,3968,5368,6778,8198,960
Uruguay3,0853,1063,1273,1493,1723,1953,2183,2423,2653,2893,3133,3373,3613,3853,4083,432
Venezuela19,02519,50219,97220,44120,91021,37721,84422,31122,77723,24223,70724,17024,63225,09325,56326,012
Amrica Latina422,185430,048437,875445,687453,492461,295469,104476,931484,770492,605500,421508,199515,948523,677531,388539,042
L2
Tasa de crecimiento anual2001-12001-22001-32001-42002-12002-22002-32002-42003-12003-22003-32003-42004-12004-22004-32004-4
199920002001200220032004AL PIB trimestral2.11.2-0.5-1.8-3.0-0.40.71.51.70.61.23.05.3
PIB Mundial3.24.01.31.82.73.8Promedio ao0.30.30.30.3-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.61.61.61.61.64.44.44.44.4
Estados Unidos4.13.80.32.42.94.5
Japn0.12.80.40.22.64.1
Unin Europea2.83.71.71.10.71.6
China7.187.589.17.5
L2
00
00
00
00
2003
2004
Tasas de crecimiento principales economas 2003-2004
L3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
AL PIB trimestral
Promedio ao
L4
1990-19981999-20022003
Absorcin Interna3.90.10.8
Exportaciones Netas-0.50.90.8
PIB3.41.01.5
L4
00
00
00
Absorcin Interna
Exportaciones Netas
L6
China variacin 2003/2002
ExportacionesImportaciones
Total Mundial34.639.9
Asia29.942.4
EE UU y Canad32.123.9
Europa51.534.2
Oceana37.825.9
Africa46.354.1
Amrica Latina y el Caribe25.279.1
L6
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Exportaciones
Importaciones
CHINA: CRECIMIENTO DE SUS EXPORTACIONES E IMPORTACIONES 2003/2002
L7
TotalTotal sin petrleoPetrleo y DerivadosAceites, harinas y semillas oleaginosasCaf promedioCobre
Jan-0278.870.489.664.528.766.1
Feb-0280.871.293.162.829.368.6
Mar-0292.473.2117.062.832.570.5
Apr-0298.873.1131.963.632.669.9
May-0298.073.2129.866.129.570.1
Jun-0298.174.3128.867.628.272.4
Jul-02102.074.6137.172.228.069.8
Aug-02103.773.4142.673.127.065.0
Sep-02107.675.6148.675.829.064.9
Oct-02106.676.1145.873.630.365.2
Nov-0299.575.9130.076.932.869.5
Dec-02106.377.9142.875.430.170.1
Jan-03118.278.3169.675.832.272.4
Feb-03122.578.8178.676.832.074.0
Mar-03116.777.4167.175.128.472.9
Apr-03103.476.3138.377.731.269.7
May-03104.176.4139.780.232.372.4
Jun-03107.875.8149.078.430.574.1
Jul-03110.176.3153.575.131.975.1
Aug-03114.277.3161.776.933.177.3
Sep-03107.879.0144.883.533.778.6
Oct-03113.582.9152.998.132.884.4
Nov-03116.086.9153.4103.733.190.3
Dec-03118.887.9158.5103.134.596.7
Jan-04127.093.8169.8108.638.5106.5
Feb-04127.697.7166.2111.139.8121.2
Mar-04135.5103.3176.9121.839.9132.2
Apr-04135.6103.4176.9117.338.2129.5
May-04143.5100.5198.7105.439.5120.1
Jun-04137.699.1187.193.441.8118.0
L7
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Total
Total sin petrleo
Petrleo y Derivados
L8
Estados Unidos: Importaciones no petroleras
2000=100
TotalMexAm CentMercosurCan+Chile
Jan-0094.591.798.392.899.9
Feb-0096.295.099.097.996.9
Mar-0097.496.299.6101.098.3
Apr-0097.798.399.1100.199.1
May-0098.998.398.696.0100.8
Jun-00100.1100.0100.2101.0101.3
Jul-00101.4100.6100.7103.8100.9
Aug-00102.2102.7101.7109.0100.6
Sep-00103.1104.299.3103.599.8
Oct-00104.0105.1101.1100.2102.1
Nov-00103.5105.1101.997.0101.3
Dec-00101.1102.7100.597.698.9
Jan-01102.4103.3101.9105.4100.8
Feb-01100.6101.399.3107.098.5
Mar-01100.9101.9100.5109.2102.0
Apr-0197.2100.097.8102.998.2
May-0196.6100.398.1103.2100.4
Jun-0195.3100.297.399.698.8
Jul-0194.7100.295.999.698.7
Aug-0193.8100.294.798.898.7
Sep-0192.197.992.1101.998.4
Oct-0192.497.592.0103.095.0
Nov-0191.996.792.5104.892.3
Dec-0190.797.292.0101.790.4
Jan-0290.597.692.3101.194.7
Feb-0291.397.490.698.394.8
Mar-0292.396.991.098.293.9
Apr-0293.499.492.3100.894.9
May-0294.7101.094.5102.697.3
Jun-0297.3102.297.4107.2101.8
Jul-0298.3101.199.1109.798.9
Aug-0298.4100.8100.6112.5100.9
Sep-0299.2101.3103.3114.4100.5
Oct-0297.9100.7103.8121.5103.8
Nov-0298.6101.0104.5122.0102.2
Dec-0299.2101.3104.2124.2105.8
Jan-03101.5100.8108.2119.5103.2
Feb-03101.1100.1108.9123.3104.3
Mar-0399.698.6109.5125.6105.4
Apr-0399.199.3108.7125.9110.4
May-0399.698.9108.8122.5112.6
Jun-03101.399.4107.2120.3111.9
Jul-03102.198.8104.9121.5112.1
Aug-03100.597.3102.6122.8114.0
Sep-03102.098.8105.1121.9115.7
Oct-03102.999.9105.2123.1116.4
Nov-03105.4102.1105.3124.7115.1
Dec-03106.5105.2107.9128.7117.1
Jan-04106.9105.6107.9126.5115.2
Feb-04109.6107.6113.3124.4120.1
Mar-04111.5107.4112.6122.1127.6
Apr-04114.0110.1114.3125.9134.9
L8
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Total
Mex
Am Cent
IMPORTACIONES NO PETROLERAS DE ESTADOS UNIDOS
L9
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Total
Mercosur
Can+Chile
L10
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO de exportaciones intrabloque
Comercio Intrarregional
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003I-2003I-2004
Comunidad Andina26.334.819.836.529.728.2-118.2-2.2-28.431.19.5-6.7-5.5-14.816.4
Mercosur7.623.64139.919.717.820.320.3-1.1-25.416.8-13.6-33.324.511.531.4
Mercado Comn Centroamericano8.930.132.55.816.520.2-12.912.424.63.430.18.2-0.7810.117.2
Caricom2.9-10.11.115.924.226.53.911.55.76.312.312.4-12.714
Amrica Latina y el Caribe8.21119.91923.223.617.712.4-5.2-14.429-6.3-9.913.75.316.2
CAN10.19.1
Mercour11.411.9
MCCA28.126.9
CARICOM18.918.8
Amrica Latina y Caribe15.216
L10
000
000
000
000
000
2002
I-2003
I-2004
L11
Tasas de crecimiento anuales
1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Exportaciones16.121.812.111.3-1.15.619.8-4.10.84.4
Importaciones181211.418.46.1-3.716.1-2.5-6.70.8
Cuadro II.3
AMRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: EXPORTACIONES E IMPORTACIONES DE BIENES
(Tasas anuales de variacin)
200220032004a
Exporta-Importa-Exporta-Importa-Exporta-Importa-
cionescionescionescionescionesciones
TOTAL1.3-6.98.53.219.914.7
MXICO1.50.22.51.110.610.4
MERCOSUR1.2-25.519.110.523.229.1
Argentina-3.1-55.814.354.414.573.6
Brasil3.7-15.021.12.225.517.6
Paraguay-1.7-14.621.717.953.053.3
Uruguay-10.2-35.718.311.627.527.3
COMUNIDAD ANDINA Y CHILE0.8-7.98.02.041.918.2
Bolivia1.110.921.1-7.343.1-6.8
Chile-0.5-3.115.813.341.616.1
Colombia-3.7-1.69.99.88.88.1
Ecuador8.719.619.21.29.513.7
Per9.92.716.411.332.08.0
Venezuela-0.0-29.1-3.4-21.477.555.6
CENTROAMRICA Y EL CARIBE3.33.310.52.63.13.2
Costa Rica6.813.816.610.91.13.1
El Salvador4.51.44.711.1-0.13.8
Guatemala-1.412.68.16.69.612.8
Hait-10.1-7.121.413.8
Honduras2.01.55.39.114.424.3
Nicaragua-5.8-0.29.86.3
Panam-11.3-5.0-5.0-3.3
Repblica Dominicana-2.10.75.3-10.8-0.6-14.4
L12
AMRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: TRMINOS DEL INTERCAMBIO
(Variacin porcentual acumulada 1998-2002 y variacin 2003)
relacin trminos del intercambio
1998-20022003
Venezuela26.77.8
Ecuador4.73.4
Mxico3.71.0
PETROLEROS b/3.62.5
Colombia2.72.9
Repblica Dominicana0.9-1.0
Argentina-1.78.6
AMRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE-3.41.1
Panam-4.0-4.4
Bolivia-4.96.8
Hait-6.9-1.4
Costa Rica-7.5-1.5
Uruguay-10.12.4
Guatemala-13.4-2.9
Honduras-14.6-4.3
NO PETROLEROS-14.80.5
Brasil-15.3-0.5
El Salvador-15.5-3.9
Paraguay-15.81.0
Nicaragua-16.8-3.4
Chile-17.54.9
Per-22.73.8
L12
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1998-2002
2003
L13
CtaCte/PIB
20022003
Venezuela7.811.3
Argentina9.46.1
Repblica Dominicana3.75.0
Paraguay1.32.6
Brasil1.70.8
Uruguay2.60.7
A.LATINA Y CARIBE0.90.3
Bolivia4.50.2
Chile1.30.8
Mxico2.21.5
Ecuador5.41.6
Per2.01.8
Colombia2.01.8
Panam0.83.4
Honduras3.33.7
Guatemala5.34.3
El Salvador2.94.9
Costa Rica5.75.5
L13
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
2002
2003
L14
AMERICA LATINA Y CARIBE: Balanza de pagos en millones de dolares
199519961997199819992000200120022003
Balanza de renta-40,760-42,711-47,666-51,389-50,487-53,503-54,588-51,367-56,619
Transferencias corrientes ( remesas)15,16814,70415,23516,84219,20620,44224,95328,03434,298
AMERICA LATINA Y CARIBE: Como % del PIB
Balanza de renta-2.4-2.4-2.6-2.7-2.6-2.7-2.7-2.6-2.8
Transferencias corrientes ( remesas)0.90.80.80.91.01.01.31.41.7
L14
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Balanza de renta
Transferencias corrientes ( remesas)
L21
IED netaEntrada de capitales (exc. compensatorios)
19810.904.25
19820.850.44
19830.76-3.39
19840.59-1.54
19850.86-2.35
19860.54-1.76
19870.47-1.74
19880.86-2.33
19890.74-1.99
19900.62-0.46
19910.962.11
19920.983.89
19930.764.98
19941.562.66
19951.561.80
19962.233.75
19972.884.23
19983.033.54
19994.502.84
20003.543.16
20013.731.92
20022.40-0.87
20031.670.28
20041.81
L21
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
FLUJOS DE CAPITALES: 1997-2004 ( Como % del PIB)
Sheet2
COSTOS DE LAS EMISIONES DE BONOSEMISIONES DE BONOS
CostoCosto(excluido Argentina)PlazoRendimientos bonos Estados UnidosMonto mensualPromedio mvil 12 meses
1997-I9.2714.46.56Jan-004,1703,621
1997-II9.7813.66.70Feb-005,2033,737
1997-III9.1017.76.24Mar-005,6833,667
1997-IV10.067.65.91Apr-009703,159
1998-I9.377.65.59May-001,5722,970
1998-II9.8810.15.60Jun-006,2393,226
1998-III12.878.45.20Jul-007,0053,545
1998-IV11.937.74.67Aug-003,6973,723
1999-I12.338.84.98Sep-002,7643,777
1999-II11.686.85.54Oct-001,7083,663
1999-III12.105.05.88Nov-002843,432
1999-IV11.334.76.14Dec-008603,346
2000-I11.1611.46.48Jan-016,2703,521
2000-II11.696.96.18Feb-013,9773,419
2000-III11.729.35.89Mar-012,9303,190
2000-IV12.506.15.57Apr-014,5973,492
2001-I11.7810.207.95.05May-014,3753,725
2001-II12.5510.508.05.27Jun-012,2303,391
2001-III14.3410.7011.04.98Jul-011,6202,943
2001-IV15.5010.509.74.77Aug-014,7203,028
2002-I10.307.75.08Sep-011,3002,906
2002-II11.207.25.10Oct-018502,834
2002-III13.808.14.26Nov-011,8802,967
2002-IV12.7015.24.01Dec-013,4303,181
2003-I12.748.23.92Jan-023,5802,957
2003-II10.318.23.62Feb-023,5002,918
2003-III10.619.14.23Mar-021,8002,823
2003-IV9.869.54.29Apr-022,9402,685
2004-I9.4114.34.02May-021502,333
2004-II10.546.54.55Jun-027102,207
2004-IIIJul-021,2702,178
2004-IVAug-021301,795
Sep-025901,736
Oct-024501,703
Nov-023901,578
Dec-023,9901,625
Jan-035,7601,807
Feb-032,2001,698
Mar-033,1701,813
Apr-034,7601,964
May-031,6512,089
Jun-034,4002,397
Jul-033,9902,623
Aug-032,0602,784
Sep-032,7902,968
Oct-035,8203,415
Nov-032,8803,623
Dec-033,6703,596
Jan-047,2903,723
Feb-042,0503,711
Mar-042,2303,633
Apr-041,8303,388
May-045303,295
Jun-042,3003,120
Sheet2
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&A
Page &P
Monto mensual
Promedio mvil 12 meses
L18
Tasa crecimiento
2004
Venezuela12.0
Uruguay9.2
Argentina7.1
Ecuador5.5
Panam5.0
Chile4.8
Per4.2
Mxico3.8
Costa Rica3.7
Colombia3.7
Brasil3.7
Nicaragua3.5
Honduras3.5
Bolivia3.3
Guatemala3.0
Cuba3.0
REGIN EL CARIBE2.9
Paraguay2.5
El Salvador2.0
R. Dominicana-1.0
Hait-2.0
L18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2004
L15
Promedio ponderado
Tasa de desempleoTasa de ocupacin
19907.253.2
19958.552.9
19989.952.4938965505
199910.551.7678332775
20001052.3817604115
20019.851.9659356712
200210.651.5865127499
200310.552.0300640346
L15
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
&A
Page &P
Tasa de desempleo
Tasa de ocupacin
Ahorro nacionalAhorro externo
199020.50.621.1
199118.91.920.8
199217.82.920.7
199317.33.620.9
199417.93.521.4
199518.92.321.2
199619.02.221.2
199719.03.422.4
199817.64.422.0
199917.13.120.2
200018.42.420.8
200117.02.819.8
200218.10.718.8
200318.2-0.417.8
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Ahorro nacional
Ahorro externo
resultado primario del GCResultado global
2003200420032004
Nicaragua2.80.9A. Latina y Caribe-2.7-1.8
Brasil2.62.5Argentina0.30.6
Mxico2.42.7Bolivia-7.1-6.8
Argentina2.22.2Brasil-1.0-1.0
Ecuador2.21.3Chile-0.41.6
Venezuela1.93.0Colombia-4.9-4.8
Uruguay1.13.2Costa Rica-3.1n/d
Paraguay1.01.5Ecuador-0.9-1.8
A. Latina y Caribe0.31.0Guatemala-2.3-3.9
Per0.20.7Honduras-5.9-2.9
Chile0.12.1Mxico-0.6-0.3
Colombia-0.4-0.5Nicaragua-2.3-1.2
Guatemala-1.1-2.3Paraguay-0.30.2
R.Dominicana-2.02.5Per-1.8-1.4
Honduras-3.5-1.5R. Dominicana-3.80.7
Bolivia-4.2-3.9Uruguay-4.6-3.4
Venezuela-4.1-3.0
Figure 3. PER CAPITA OUTPUT IN 2004 (1997 = 100)
1990-19971998-2003Rate of Growth (% per year) GDP3.21.3 GDP per capita1.4-0.2Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP)22.419.3National Savings(% of GDP)19.617.8Foreign Savings(% of GDP)2.91.5Source: Preliminary overview of the economies of Latin America andCaribbean, ECLAC 2003.Savings, Investment and GrowthLatin America and the Caribbean, 1990-2003.Table 1
B. The Growth Record of Latin America of the Last Four Decades
Economic Growth in Latin America 1960-2004Four stylized facts of economic growth in L.A. that define risks and prospects of growth
Economic growth has been slow and very volatile.
High heterogeneity in degree of development across Latin American countries.
Economic growth has declined since early 1980s.
Important changes in relative growth performance, including the economic collapse of some countries. Few cases of rapid and sustained growth after 1990.
11nov2004
Table 2
Table 2
Average annual GDP
Growth rates (%)
1960-20021960-19801981-20022000-20032004 (p)20002001200220032004
Argentina0.92.6-0.6-1.97.1-0.8-4.4-10.88.67.1
Bolivia1.02.3-0.32.33.32.31.62.72.43.3
Brazil2.24.60.11.73.74.01.51.5-0.43.7
Chile2.51.63.23.24.84.23.22.03.34.8
Colombia1.82.60.92.33.72.51.51.63.73.7
C. Rica2.03.10.93.13.71.81.22.86.43.7
Ecuador2.05.4-0.23.25.50.95.53.82.55.5
Mexico2.13.70.62.03.96.8-0.50.61.23.9
Peru0.71.8-0.23.04.22.5-0.15.44.14.2
Rep. Dom.3.24.73.03.5-1.07.33.04.3-0.5-1.0
Uruguay0.81.50.1-3.89.5-1.9-3.5-12.02.39.5
Venezuela0.11.6-1.3-2.812.03.83.5-9.0-9.312.0
Unweighted Average1.63.00.51.35.0
Source: own elaboration based on data from ECLAC.
(p) Projected by ECLAC.
1.63.00.5
Sheet1
Key Macroeconomic Indicators in select countries of Latin America
200320042005200620072008
Real GDP Growth (%)
Argentina8.76.04.13.73.43.8
Brazil-0.22.83.22.93.02.9
Chile3.34.55.04.74.74.5
Colombia3.73.83.53.53.53.5
Ecuador2.74.33.83.13.63.1
Mexico1.33.03.03.33.63.5
Peru4.04.13.93.84.14.5
Venezuela-9.28.43.13.93.63.5
Average1.84.63.73.63.73.7
Consumer Price Inflation (Av;%)
Argentina13.45.46.13.43.33.0
Brazil14.75.84.13.43.03.0
Chile2.80.52.62.82.92.6
Colombia7.16.15.14.44.03.8
Ecuador7.94.42.92.21.91.7
Mexico4.53.83.11.61.81.3
Peru2.33.43.02.82.52.2
Venezuela31.124.120.116.414.913.3
Average10.56.75.94.64.33.9
Budget Balance (% GDP)
Argentina0.50.50.80.3-0.20.2
Brazil-8.9-2.0-1.4-2.4-2.0-1.4
Chile-0.80.50.2-0.3-0.5-0.4
Colombia-5.0-4.7-4.5-4.5-4.3-4.1
Ecuador1.12.32.21.40.4-0.2
Mexico-0.7-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.8-2.0
Peru-2.0-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.8
Venezuela-5.9-6.5-2.4-2.3-3.6-3.3
Average-2.7-1.5-1.0-1.4-1.6-1.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
Argentina6.12.12.72.22.42.4
Brazil0.7-0.3-1.7-1.6-1.4-1.1
Chile-0.81.3-0.7-1.0-1.6-1.9
Colombia-1.8-2.3-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.7
Ecuador-0.40.80.40.51.31.3
Mexico-1.5-1.8-2.0-1.4-1.3-1.4
Peru-1.8-1.3-2.0-1.7-1.4-1.2
Venezuela11.39.34.32.52.30.7
Average1.51.0-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.5
Short Term Lending Rate (Av,%)
3.78.011.010.010.09.5
23.415.413.512.012.012.0
Chile6.27.010.511.09.59.5
7.89.910.810.810.510.0
12.412.015.017.017.016.0
6.87.69.811.712.011.5
Peru14.215.816.918.518.418.0
25.227.533.526.525.524.5
Average12.512.915.114.714.413.9
[1] Money-market rate
[2] Overnight repo rate on federal securities
[3] 90-day deposit rate
[4] Deposit banks' prime lending rate
[5] 90-day Treasury-bill rate
[6] Commercial banks' prime rate
Source: Country Forecast April (2004) .The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.
Sheet2
Table 2
Average annual GDP
Growth rates (%)
1960-20021960-19801981-20022000-200320002001200220032004
Argentina0.92.6-0.6-1.9-0.8-4.4-10.88.67.1
Bolivia1.02.3-0.32.32.31.62.72.43.3
Brazil2.24.60.11.74.01.51.5-0.43.7
Chile2.51.63.23.24.23.22.03.34.8
Colombia1.82.60.92.32.51.51.63.73.7
C. Rica2.03.10.93.11.81.22.86.43.7
Rep. Dom.3.24.73.03.57.33.04.3-0.5-1.0
Ecuador2.05.4-0.23.20.95.53.82.55.5
Mexico2.13.70.62.06.8-0.50.61.23.9
Peru0.71.8-0.23.02.5-0.15.44.14.2
Uruguay0.81.50.1-3.8-1.9-3.5-12.02.39.5
Venezuela0.11.6-1.3-2.83.83.5-9.0-9.312.0
Unweighted Average1.63.00.5
Source: own elaboration based on data from ECLAC.
1.63.00.5
Sheet3
C. Volatility
Economic growth has been slow and volatileAverage annual growth rate of per capita GDP in 1960-2002Latin America: 1.6% per capita100 to 192US: 2.5%100 to 275South Korea: 6%100 to 990
Instability: years with recessions (negative GDP growth)Average for Latin American countries: 16 of 42US: 8 of 42South Korea: 4 of 42
Frequency of Growth Crisis: Unstable Growth1960-19801981-20021961-2002Argentina6111741.5Bolivia4101434.1Brazil391229.3Chile63922.0Colombia07717.1Costa Rica281024.4Dom. Republic44819.5Ecuador281024.4Mexico08819.5Peru5101536.6Uruguay691536.6Venezuela6121843.9Average3.78.311.929.3Korea2137.3Thailand0224.9Philippines07717.1Ireland1237.3Spain2249.8Turkey561126.8Average1.73.3512.3Source: Own elaboration based on ECLAC and IMF data.Number of years with negative GDP growth ratesLatin American CountriesControl groupPercentage of crisis in total periodGrowth Crisis in Latin America and Control GroupTable 4
D. Changes in Growth Performance
Changes in Growth Performance Across Countries in Latin American Economies
Cumulative Contribution ofContribution of growth in per Total Factor Capital and Laborcapita GDPProductivityBolivia1965-1973Brazil 1971-1980Chile1986-1997Colombia 1968-1974Costa Rica 1965-1974Dom. Republic 951.12922.11992-2000Ecuador1972-1980Mexico 1963-1970Korea1963-1971967.742.125.61982-19911056.535.926.6Ireland1994-2001Spain1961-1974Thailand1986-1996Table 6Growth Booms in Latin America and Other Countries11124.554.769.814112.481.940.5864.539.634.9833.5258.3953.640.123.51041.92318.9724.9204.91191.15546.51067.732.535.2934.836.7-1.9Sustained growthper-capita GDP growth rates above 2 per year for 6 continuous years or moreLength of the cycle in years
Country and Per capitaNational External InvestmentTerm ofGrowth BoomsGross DomesticSavingFinancingTradeNational External InvestmentTerm ofPeriod*Product(Index 1995=100)SavingFinancingTrade(annual growth rate)(Index 1995=100)Bolivia1965-733.313.83.016.8138.510.16.016.1108.9Brazil1971-805.517.94.122.189.415.91.417.490.2Chile1986-975.319.13.222.392.54.89.013.9145.9Colombia1968-743.813.73.016.797.115.22.617.797.1Costa Rica1965-744.110.68.819.472.412.33.816.174.1Dominican Rep.1992-20004.618.63.522.199.022.02.724.8129.7Ecuador1972-803.917.74.121.8188.69.57.316.8105.6Mexico1963-703.816.51.818.3182.113.41.014.4187.4Source: Economic Survey of Latin America of ECLAC (various), IFC(2002) and Maddison(2003).* per capita GDP growth rates above 2 per year for 6 continuous years or more.(Percentages of Gross Domestic Product)(Percentages of Gross Domestic Product)Memo (average of four years before)Table 7Anatomy of Growth Booms
E. Towards Explaining Growth Performance
Why so different development paths?Analysis of sources of economic growthPhysical capital accumulation: high and neutralHuman capital accumulation: low and neutralTechnology adoption and use (TFP): main determinant
TFP accounts formost of the evolution of per-capita GDP in each countrythe decline in growth after 1980, avg. TFP growth is 0%.changes in performance for collapses: Venezuela -1.3% per year since 1980stagnations: Mexico -0.3%per year since 1980booms: Chile 3.5%per year since 1980
South Korea: 3.7% per year since 1960
Table 8 Growth Accounting for Latin American Economies
Country1960-19801981-20021990-20021960-20021960-19801981-20021990-20021960-2002Argentina4.20.82.22.41.8-0.31.20.7Bolivia4.72.03.53.32.2-0.80.30.6Brazil7.21.81.84.32.0-1.1-0.50.4Chile3.54.75.84.11.31.52.41.4Colombia5.32.92.54.11.80.30.41.0Costa Rica6.23.74.74.91.40.11.20.7Dominican Republic7.34.96.35.63.41.02.61.7Ecuador8.42.12.24.64.8-1.3-1.21.2Mexico6.82.53.04.52.1-0.8-0.30.6Peru4.61.83.93.11.1-1.31.1-0.1Uruguay2.20.81.41.51.10.71.30.9Venezuela5.11.01.33.00.3-1.3-1.0-0.5Latin America Simple average 5.52.43.23.81.9-0.30.60.7Weighted average6.12.12.54.01.9-0.70.00.5Source: Andrs Solimano and Reimundo Soto (2003)."Latin American Economic Growth in the Late Twentieh Century: Evidence and Interpretation", ECLAC, mimeo.Average annual GDP growth rates (%)Average annual rate of growth of TFP (%)Table 10Latin America. Rate of Growth of GDP and Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFP)
TFP growth is policy determined
F. Future Prospects
Prospects
GDP Growth: boom (4% avg. in 2004 and in 2005)Interest rates:lowest in 50 yearsInflation:low (for LA standards) and stableExports:high and growingTerms of Trade: high, especially oil producersCapital Flows:timid and selective comeback
RisksSlowdown in China and East AsiaRising interest rates in US and ChinaAppreciating exchange rates in LAInternal political shocks
Long run factorsEducationProductivity and technologyInfrastructureLess bureaucracy and lower transaction costsPoverty, inequality and political stability
Economic Growth in Latin America: Past, Present and Future Perspectives.Andrs SolimanoECLAC, United NationsNovember 11, 2004