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Economic Growth in Mozambique
Experience & Policy Challenges
Crispolti, V. (AFR)Vitek, F. (SPR)
2
Objectives of the presentation
• Take stock of Mozambique’s growth experience over the last fifteen years by looking at the factors contributing to growth and identifying parallels with the experience of other countries.
• Distill possible areas that could help raise economic growth in equitable and sustainable way, enhance external competitiveness, diversify the export base, and strengthen economic policy making going forward.
• Develop appropriate policy recommendations to achieve economic development while safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
3
Structure of the presentation
• Part 1: Mozambique’s Growth Experience in Perspective (Crispolti, V.)o Factors contributing to economic growtho International comparisons
• Part 2: Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of Economic Growth (Vitek, F.)o Measuring capital abundanceo Investment growth nexuso Policy recommendations
Part 1: Mozambique’s Growth Experience in
Perspective V. Crispolti
4
5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Real GDP and per capita GDP growth rates(in percent)
Real GDP Real per capita GDP
Strong postwar expansion
Since the early 1990s, real output has grown by 8.2 percent per year on average, resulting in a significant improvement of living standards in Mozambique (PRSP, 2007)
6
Sources of growth:Production
Economic expansion has been spread across production sectors, with megaprojects determining the patterns of economic activity in the secondary sector.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Contributions to Output Growth by Production Sector(in percent)
Tertiary sector
Secondary sector
Primary sector
Real GDP growth
7
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Contributions to Output Growth by Demand Component(in percent)
Net exports
Public investment
Private investment
Consumption
Real GDP growth
Output growth was supported by robust domestic demand, including for investment related to megaprojects.
Sources of growth:Expenditure
80.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
1995-99
2000-04
2005-09
16.1
26.7
46.2
45.8
53.6
Openess(imports plus exports in percent of GDP; period averages)
megaprojects
other -1.00
1.00SSA
non-fuel exporting SSA
WorldAdvanced economies
Emerging economies
Correlation among economic cycles(correlations between growth in Mozambique and growth in other regions)
1995-99
2000-04
2005-09
Greater integration into the global economy accompanied growth
Growth was accompanied by increasing openness to international trade, which favored greater synchronization with the economic cycles in other regions of the world.
9
Other factors affecting growth
o Supportive factors: Prudent macroeconomic policy management; The implementation of key structural reforms; Protracted period of political stability following the civil war.
o Untapped potentials: Measures to improve the business climate; Regional Integration.
10
More recently, however, the economy has been gradually loosing steam, reflecting the downward trend of potential output growth.
Recent trends: Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Actual versus Potential Output Growth(in percent)
Actual
Potential
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
Mozambique
MozambiqueMozambique
GDP per capita at PPP in SSA countries(ranked according to percentiles)
Recent trends: Poverty
Moreover, poverty remains high as suggested by Mozambique’s low level of GDP per capita, in 2008 still below the 25th percentile of the distribution for SSA countries.
12
International comparisons
Mozambique’s growth performance may be better understood once compared with the experience of similar countries in different regions of the world.
This would help shed light on the important challenges faced by the authorities going forward.
Mozambique’s accomplishments are compared with the achievements attained by several non-fuel exporting SSA countries, as well as comparable economies in Asia.
13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Lib
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Afr
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er
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om
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Prí
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Ga
mb
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he
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tsw
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law
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Tan
zan
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Bu
rkin
a F
aso
Eth
iop
ia
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Ug
an
da
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Rw
an
da
Real GDP growth in Non-Fuel exporting SSA countries(averages 1995-2010; in percent)
average of the non-fuel SSA
International comparisons:Sub-Saharan African countries
Mozambique’s growth performance stands out in a regional context…
14
SSA(1973)
Tanzania(1995)
Uganda(1986)
ASEAN-5(1973)
Vietnam(1989)
India(1982)
Mozambique(1992)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
years after takeoff
Takeoff events(growth index, 0=100)
International comparisons:Asian countries
… and with respect to the successful experience of peer countries in Asia.
15
International comparisons:Recent trends
However, growth is gradually loosing steam, partly reflecting the recent decline in investment rates…
16
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
Mo
zam
biq
ue
no
n-fu
el
ex
po
rtin
g S
SA
So
uth
Afr
ica
Tan
zan
ia
Ug
an
da
AS
EA
N-5
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Vie
tna
m
Total investment(period averages; in percent of GDP)
1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
International comparisons:Total investment
…which, on the contrary, are increasing among peers…
17
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Mo
zam
biq
ue
no
n-fu
el
ex
po
rtin
g S
SA
So
uth
Afr
ica
Tan
zan
ia
Ug
an
da
AS
EA
N-4
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Vie
tna
m
Private investment(period averages; in percent of GDP)
1995-99 2000-04 2005-09
International comparisons:Private investment
… mainly reflecting higher private investment.
18
Part 2: Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of
Economic GrowthF. Vitek
19
Measuring capital abundance
• The fundamental drivers of long run growth in living standards are:o Productivity advancemento Capital deepening
• Measures of capital abundance can help prioritize economic development objectives.
20
We construct capital stock depth indexes with principal components analysis
• We aggregate observed indicators of the abundance of private physical capital, public physical capital, and human capital relative to other factors of production.o Cross sectional data set covers 182 economies
21
Principal components estimation results for Mozambique
Capital stock depth indexes
Index Weight Percentile Rank
Private physical capital stock
Tractors, number per square kilometer of arable land 0.437 22.4
Vehicles, number per kilometer of paved road 0.109 2.2
Computers, number per worker 0.455 17.7
Public physical capital stock
Mobile and fixed line telephones, number per worker 0.392 13.1
Electricity distribution, kilowatt hours per worker 0.299 23.0
Paved roads, kilometers per square kilometer of land 0.309 11.3
Human capital stock
Life expectancy, years at birth 0.500 0.3
Literacy rate, percent of adults 0.500 8.3
22
Capital abundance in Mozambique lies near bottom of global distribution
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Private physical capital Public physical capital Human capital
Pe
rce
ntile
Ra
nk
Capital Stock Depth Indexes
23
Capital abundance is also low compared to peers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
No
n-fu
el
ex
po
rtin
g S
SA
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
AS
EA
N-4
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Vie
tna
m
Capital Stock Depth Indexes(Percentile rank)
Private physical capital
Public physical capital
Human capital
24
The investment growth nexus
• We conduct an empirical analysis of the determinants of growth in living standards in Mozambique.o Theoretical framework is neoclassical growth modelo Empirical framework is panel error correction model
25
Panel error correction model estimation results for 182 economies over 1980 through 2008
Estimation results for panel error correction model of output per capita growth
Advanced Economies Included Advanced Economies Excluded
Short run dynamics: Coefficients
Lagged output per capita 0.035 0.034
Foreign output per capita 0.042*** 0.042***
Real interest rate −0.201** −0.225**
Real effective exchange rate −0.005 −0.006
Long run disequilibrium −0.280*** −0.274***
Long run trend: Parameters
Productivity growth rate 0.018*** 0.016***
Private physical capital intensity 0.160*** 0.164***
Public physical capital intensity 0.060* 0.059*
Human capital intensity 0.030 0.024
Diagnostics:
Observations 2155 1967
R Squared 0.206 0.197
26
Growth in living standards was driven by productivity advancement, not capital deepening
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pe
rce
nt
Contributions to Output per Capita Growth by Structural Determinant
Productivity advancement Labor force participation Private capital deepening
Public capital deepening Human capital deepening Labor force growth
Output per capita Capital deepening
27
Estimated expansionary effects from scaling up investment are large
• A one percent increase in the rate of private investment is estimated to raise output growth by 1.3 percent on impact.
• A one percent increase in the rate of public investment is estimated to raise output growth by 0.5 percent on impact.
28
Estimated expansionary effects of infrastructure investment are consistent with existing results
• A one percent increase in the rate of grant financed infrastructure investment is estimated to raise output growth in low income countries with prudent macroeconomic policies by:o 0.4 percent by Burnside and Dollar (1997, WB)o 0.3 percent by Spinetto, Teresa and Moll (2005, WB)
29
Public investment in infrastructure should be well targeted to maximize expansionary effect
• The persistence of the expansionary effect of public investment will depend on the degree to which it promotes future private investment.o Should be well targeted to raise the benefits and
reduce the costs of private investment.o Building “bridges to nowhere” will not yield a
sustained increase in economic growth.
30
Conclusion
• Since the end of the civil war, Mozambique’s output has expanded at an impressive pace, nearly doubling living standards.
• However, despite the positive contribution of megaprojects growth has been gradually decelerating and poverty remains high.
• International comparisons suggest that there is scope for Mozambique to rise its economic growth and reduce poverty over the long run.
• Given the need to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, broad-based economic growth should be promoted by:o Targeted public investment in infrastructure that will help stimulate private
investment;o Sequenced structural reforms of institutions;o Focused efforts to improve the business environment and enhance regional
integration;o Prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
31
Thank youThank you