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. Overview
What are the Effects of Meeting Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Goals
on the Economies of theUS and the Rest of the World ?
What are the Available Modeling Platforms ?
Macro-EconometricGeneral EquilibriumEnhanced Energy-Economy
What Can MARKAL MACRO Offer ?
It is an enhanced energy-economy model of the UniteIt answers
the question How do we get there from h
...
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Briefing on MARKAL-MACRO modelWhat is MARKAL-MACROMARKAL-MACRO
Model Solutions
a Strengths of MARKAL-MACROWeaknesses of MARKAL-MACRO
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What is MARKAL-MACRO ?MARKAL is an integrated energy supply and
demand modeling system, consisting o four end-use
sectors, two conversion sectors, and supply sectors for fossil
fuels.
MARKAL is driven by demands for useful energy services; e.g..
square feet of single familyresidential space to be heated. The
degree of aggregation in demands is under user control.
MARKAL draws on a database that characterizes energy resources
and technologies. The numberof technologies in the database and the
level of detail in which technologies are addressed areunder user
control.
MACRO is a macroeconomic model with an aggregate representation
of longrowth and the role of energy services and other productive
factorsconsumption.
MARKAL-MACRO solutions maximize consumer welfare over the
sohaggregate investment, and- rovide least-cost energy system
cog1endogenously determined demands for energy services.
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MARKAL-MACRO Interactions
Technology CharacteristicsEnvironmental Constraints LaborI
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MARKAL-MACRO SolutionsEconomic Growth Impacts
rimary and end-use fuel consumption by time stepEnv ironmenta
emissions
Imputed prices of end-use energy services
Imputed values of CO2 NOx and SO2 emissionsInvestments required
to meet the demand for energy services
The energy system configuration
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Strengths of MARKAL=MACROMARKAL-MACRO model structure is
generic.
It can easily incorporate new technologies to meet end-use
demandIt can simulate the effects of adopting new technologies on
energy conservationIt can simulate the effects of penetration rates
for new technologies on energy consumption
MARKAL-MACRO solves for the combination of energy technologies
that satisfy energy servicedemands at minimum cost.
MARKAL-MACRO provides an integrated economic analysis.It
combines the top-down macroeconomic analysis with the bottom-up
miThe model optimizes over the whole energy systemIt takes into
account the synergy and offsets among energy polic
MARKAL-MACRO has a long history of use for energy system
analycommunity of users. The Reference Energy System (RES)
approrefined overthe past 20 years.
analysis
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y
Weaknesses of MARKAL-MACROMARKAL-MACRO assumes perfect foresight
and perfect information on fuel prices and costs of
future technologies.
The model is implemented at the national level, and therefore
can not capture important differencesin the costs of fuels and
technologies and energy service demands at the regional level.
The model will tend to over-optimize the energy system.
It may provide knife-edge solutions if penetration rates are not
modeled carefully.It does not model adjustment issues such as
inflationary and transitional effe
and on employment.
MARK&-MACRO does not link technology improvement to R D
ex
