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Economic Outlook and Ease of Doing Business in Thailand
Kobsak Pootrakool August 28, 2019
Topics for Discussion
• Roles of Economic Minister Council in managing the impacts of global economic challenges • Regulatory reform in Thailand
Global Economic Slowdown
The IMF Cut 2019 World GDP Growth Forecast for 4 Times in a Year
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3 3.2
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
Apr. 18 Oct. 18 Jan. 19 Apr. 19 Jul.19
Source: IMF
Global Economic Slowdown
-2
0
2
4
6
2015
M1
2015
M6
2015
M11
2016
M4
2016
M9
2017
M2
2017
M7
2017
M12
2018
M5
2018
M10
Industrial Production World Trade Manufacturing PMI: new orders
World Trade, Industrial Production, and PMI Industrial Production
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2015
M1
2015
M6
2015
M11
2016
M4
2016
M9
2017
M2
2017
M7
2017
M12
2018
M5
2018
M10
US Japan China Eurozone-4
Source: IMF
Germany GDP (qoq)
Exports Declined Across Various Economies
Source: Bank of Thailand
Export Performance of Asian Economies
Exports Declined Across Various Economies
Economies
Export growth (%YoY) 2019 2019 Q1 Q2
US 1.4 -3.0 Eurozone -3.8 -1.1 (2M) Japan -5.7 -6.2 China 1.0 -1.5 Hong Kong -2.6 -4.6 India 6.7 -1.7 Indonesia -8.2 -9.0 South Korea -8.5 -8.5 Malaysia -4.8 -4.6 Philippines -2.9 1.2 Singapore -2.7 -6.5 Taiwan -4.2 -2.6 Thailand -4.0 -4.2 Vietnam 5.1 9.2
US - China Trade War
Yuan Devaluation is Deployed to Combat Trade Tension
Financial Market Volatility
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
03/01
/2005
03/01
/2006
03/01
/2007
03/01
/2008
03/01
/2009
03/01
/2010
03/01
/2011
03/01
/2012
03/01
/2013
03/01
/2014
03/01
/2015
03/01
/2016
03/01
/2017
03/01
/2018
03/01
/2019
+10%Depreciation
Source: Bloomberg
9
Financial Market Volatility
Emerging Markets Currencies Movement (YTD)
-7.6% -4.8%
-4.4% -3.8%
-2.5% -2.4% -2.4%
-2.1% -1.1% -0.9% -0.8%
0.6% 1.1%
2.5% 6.0%
6.5%
-10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
KRW COP ZAR TRY CNY BRL CLP
TWD SGD INR
MYR MXN PHP IDR
THB RUB
Source: Bank of Thailand
Dollar Baht Exchange Rate
Yuan Baht Exchange Rate
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000 Dow Jones
6,600
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800 Financial Times
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
Hang Seng
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500 Nikkei
Financial Market Volatility
The Yield Curve is Inverted Once Again US 2-10 Spread
Financial Market Volatility
Source: Bloomberg
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
01/01
/1980
01/01
/1983
01/01
/1986
01/01
/1989
01/01
/1992
01/01
/1995
01/01
/1998
01/01
/2001
01/01
/2004
01/01
/2007
01/01
/2010
01/01
/2013
01/01
/2016
01/01
/2019
Dot Com Crisis Subprime Crisis
14
World Commodity Prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1/5…
1/3…
1/1…
1/1…
1/9…
1/7…
1/5…
1/3…
1/1…
1/1…
1/9…
1/7…
USD per kg
Rubber Price
200
300
400
500
600
700
1/5
/52
1/1
1/5
2
1/5
/53
1/1
1/5
3
1/5
/54
1/1
1/5
4
1/5
/55
1/1
1/5
5
1/5
/56
1/1
1/5
6
1/5
/57
1/1
1/5
7
1/5
/58
1/1
1/5
8
1/5
/59
1/1
1/5
9
1/5
/60
1/1
1/6
0
1/5
/61
1/1
1/6
1
USD per ton Rice Price
300
400
500
600
700
1/1
/55
1/7
/55
1/1
/56
1/7
/56
1/1
/57
1/7
/57
1/1
/58
1/7
/58
1/1
/59
1/7
/59
1/1
/60
1/7
/60
1/1
/61
1/7
/61
1/1
/62
USD per ton Sugar Price
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1/5
/52
1/1
1/5
2
1/5
/53
1/1
1/5
3
1/5
/54
1/1
1/5
4
1/5
/55
1/1
1/5
5
1/5
/56
1/1
1/5
6
1/5
/57
1/1
1/5
7
1/5
/58
1/1
1/5
8
1/5
/59
1/1
1/5
9
1/5
/60
1/1
1/6
0
1/5
/61
1/1
1/6
1
USD per ton Palm Oil Price
Source: Bloomberg
Impact on the Thai Economy
1. Export Decline 2. Low Agricultural Prices
3. Weaker Tourist Arrivals 4. Capital Flows Volatility
The Thai Economy Has Been Slowing Since End-2018
Global Financial Crisis Floods Political Conflict Trade Tension
Thailand’s GDP Growth
Source: NESDC
GDP expanded only by 2.3% in 2019 Q2
Thailand’s Economic Forecast 2019-2020
% YoY Actual Forecast (as of Aug. 19) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
GDP 4.0 4.1 2.7 – 3.2 (3.0) 3.0 – 4.0 (3.5) Private Consumption 3.0 4.6 4.2 4.0 Public Consumption 0.1 1.8 2.2 2.5
Private Investment 2.9 3.9 3.7 4.7 Public Investment -1.2 3.3 4.0 6.8
Export Value (USD,%) 9.5 7.5 -1.2 2.8 Inflation (%) 0.7 1.1 0.7 – 1.2 0.8 – 1.8
Current Account (%GDP) 9.7 6.4 5.8 5.4
GDP Growth Target: 3.0% or above in 2019 3.5% or above in 2020
19
Thailand’s Economic Policies 2019-2020
7 6
2
Assist low-income household and strengthen local economies
1
Assist SMEs
5
4
Support farmers: agricultural prices and farm income
3
Drive Export Performance
Accelerate public sector disbursement
Boost Tourism Sector Attract Private
Investment
Opportunities in Exports
Thai Export to US Thai Export to China
Thai Export under trade war
US
CN
Both
Bang Pa-in – Korat Motorway 21
22
New Tunnel for Dual Track
23
New Dual Track
Alignment of high
speed rail on dedicated
standard gauge track
25
New Extension of Suvarnabhumi Airport
0 2 5 10 กม. Km.
Key Projects: Mass Transit
route km
Red Line (North-South) 80.8
Red Line (East-West) 54
Airport Rail Link 50.3
Dark Green Line 66.5
Light Green Line 15.5
Blue Line ( Circle Line) 55
Purple Line 42.8
Orange Line 37.5
Pink Line 36
Yellow Line 30.4
Total 468.8
10 Line MRT Master Plan
Source: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning
26
New tunnel under Chaopraya River
New Subway Station
Yellow Line
Yellow Line
31
U-Tapao: Capital of Aviation & Aircraft Maintenance Industries
U-tapao Airport City
32
33
Laem Chabang => Transshipment port for Indochina
34
Ranong Port
35
Thailand’s Western Gateway to Indian Ocean
Opportunities in Tourism
Companies that are now considering relocation to Thailand
Companies that are now considering relocation
Companies that are now considering relocation
Regulatory Reforms
41
42
43
ตวัอย่าง ผลของการปรบัปรงุและยกเลิกกฏหมาย กฏระเบียบ ท่ีไม่จ าเป็น และเป็นอปุสรรคต่อการท าธรุกิจ ในต่างประเทศ
44
Korea
45
Our procedure
46
Three Key Criteria
• Legality • Need • Business Friendliness
Example : Building a warehouse in Thailand
48
New Biz Portal for on-line licence registration
50
7 6
2 Mobile Application (MY ID) by DGA
1 Notification Mobile Application for Those Staying Longer Than 90 Days
4
5
Cancellation of TM6 Form
3
Revision of the Application Processes of Non-Immigrant B Visa and Work Permit
Cancellation of the Requirement that All Private School Executives Must Have Teacher Licenses
Cancellation of the Minimum Area Requirement for Private University Campus
Cancellation of the 3D Printing Machine Import License
10 9 8 Cancellation of the Second-Hand Dealer License
Revision of the List of Dangerous Undertakings Under the Public Health Act B.E. 2535 (1992)
Introduction of Telemedicine License
Licenses/Procedures in the Immediate Reviewing Process