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Economic Outlook
Orlando, FL
December 20th, 2011
U.S. Forecast Gone Wilde
Oscar Wilde 1854-1900
U.S. Forecast Are We Experiencing a Dorian
Gray Recovery?
Are the Sins, Transgressions and Policy Missteps During, and in the Wake of, the Great Recession Appearing on the Visage of the U.S. Economy?
U.S. Forecast Lost Wealth and Languishing
Labor Market
A Downward force on consumer spending
In 3rd Quarter Wealth Contracted as Financial Asset Values Declines
U.S. Household Wealth(Trillions of $)
2005 2006 2007 20082009 Q1*
2011 Q3
Total Assets 71.3 78.6 79.5 66.6 62.8 71.1
Financial Assets
42.9 49.0 51.4 42.2 39.6 47.7
Home Equity 13.2 12.8 10.3 7.0 6.1 6.2
Net Worth 59.1 65.1 65.1 52.4 48.7 57.3
U.S. Economic Outlook
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
GDP% Change, Annual Rate 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.7 1.4
Consumer Price Index% Change, Annual Rate 5.2 4.1 3.1 1.1 1.2 0.6
Consumer Sentiment 73.1 71.9 60.6 60.3 67.6 70.7
Consumption% Change, Annual Rate 2.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.3
U.S. Forecast
141312111009080706050403020100999897
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)
Total Nonfarm Employment
U.S. Forecast
141312111009080706050403020100999897
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)
Unemployment Rate
A look at the Florida housing data:
October 2011 Snapshot
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSAOctober
2011October
2010%Chg
October 2011
October 2010
%Chg
STATEWIDE 13,755 12,145 9 $131,200 $136,600 -4
Fort Myers-Cape Coral
938 1,002 -6 $102,100 $89,100 15
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
521 482 8 $106,800 $97,600 9
Lakeland-Winter Haven
281 246 14 $104,300 $94,200 6
Pensacola 296 273 8 $142,000 $141,200 1
Ocala 259 252 3 $80,300 $79,700 1
Orlando 2,136 1,822 17 $127,800 $130,800 -2
Florida Sales Report – October 2011Single-Family, Existing Homes
Florida Sales Report – October 2011Single-Family, Existing Homes
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSAOctober
2011October
2010%Chg
October 2011
October 2010
%Chg
STATEWIDE 13,755 12,145 9 $131,200 $136,600 -4
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton
918 723 27 $184,900 $221,200 -16
Jacksonville 943 841 12 $124,100 $141,000 -12
Miami 769 546 41 $174,600 $199,100 -12
Gainesville 120 100 20 $154,00 $174,000 -11
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
2,207 1,923 15 $123,800 $137,900 -10
Orlando 2,136 1,822 17 $127,800 $130,800 -2
A look at the housing data:
January 1994–October 2011
Florida Forecast
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Florida Gross State Product(% change year ago)
FL Gross State Product
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
8200.0
8000.0
7800.0
7600.0
7400.0
7200.0
7000.0
6800.0
6600.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
RegionPopulation Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida 1.4 ---
Deltona 0.6 9
Gainesville 0.8 8
Jacksonville 1.4 3
Lakeland 1.4 3
Miami 1.3 4
Naples 1.8 2
Ocala 1.3 4
Orlando 1.9 1
Palm Bay 1.1 6
Pensacola 1.0 7
Tallahassee 1.3 4
Tampa 1.2 5
2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast
RegionEmployment Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida 1.7 ---Deltona 1.8 3
Gainesville 0.8 7Jacksonville 1.9 2
Lakeland 1.2 6Miami 1.6 4Naples 1.6 4Ocala 1.8 3
Orlando 2.0 1Palm Bay 0.7 9Pensacola 1.3 5
Tallahassee 0.6 8Tampa 1.9 2
2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast
Orlando Metro Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateOrlando Unemployment Rate
Orlando Metro Forecast
14131211100908070605040302010099
1100.0
1050.0
1000.0
950.0
900.0
850.0
Orlando Payroll Employment(Thousands)
OrlandoPayroll Employment
2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast
ORLANDO
Sector% Average Annual
Growth
Professional & Business Services
3.7
Leisure & Hospitality 2.8Education-Health Services 2.7Trade, Transportation & Utilities
1.9
Manufacturing 1.3Construction & Mining 1.3Other Services 0.8Information 0.8Financial 0.5State & Local Government 0.4Federal Government -3.1
Sean M. SnaithSean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
Director Director
Institute for Economic CompetitivenessInstitute for Economic Competitiveness
(407) 823-1453(407) 823-1453
[email protected]@SeanSnaith.com
WWW.IEC.UCF.EDUWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU
www.facebook.com/seansnaith www.facebook.com/seansnaith
Twitter: @seansnaithTwitter: @seansnaith
Thank you