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Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church March 28, 2017

Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

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Page 1: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Economic Overview

Fairfax / Falls Church

March 28, 2017

Page 2: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

2

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ............................................................................................................................................................ 3

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

WAGE TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6

COST OF LIVING INDEX ............................................................................................................................................................... 6

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 7

OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 9

INDUSTRY CLUSTERS ................................................................................................................................................................ 11

EDUCATION LEVELS .................................................................................................................................................................. 11

REGION DEFINITION ................................................................................................................................................................. 12

FAQ .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Page 3: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

3

Demographic Profile In 2015, the population in the Fairfax / Falls Church was 1,180,139. Between 2005 and 2015, the region’s population

grew at an annual average rate of 1.2%.

The region has a civilian labor force of 656,021 with a participation rate of 71.6%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the

Fairfax / Falls Church, 61.4% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 31.3% in the nation.

The median household income in the Fairfax / Falls Church is $112,502 and the median house value is $502,936.

Summary1

Percent Value

Fairfax / Falls

Church Virginia USA

Fairfax / Falls

Church Virginia USA

Demographics

Population6 — — — 1,180,139 8,382,993 321,418,820

Population Annual Average Growth6 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 12,895 80,589 2,590,222

Median Age2,4 — — — 37.4 37.5 37.2

Under 18 Years4 24.2% 23.2% 24.0% 270,287 1,853,677 74,181,467

18 to 24 Years4 7.7% 10.0% 9.9% 85,912 802,099 30,672,088

25 to 34 Years4 14.6% 13.6% 13.3% 163,577 1,090,419 41,063,948

35 to 44 Years4 15.2% 13.9% 13.3% 169,942 1,108,928 41,070,606

45 to 54 Years4 16.1% 15.2% 14.6% 180,237 1,214,000 45,006,716

55 to 64 Years4 12.2% 11.9% 11.8% 135,997 954,964 36,482,729

65 to 74 Years4 5.8% 6.9% 7.0% 65,297 549,804 21,713,429

75 Years, and Over4 4.1% 5.3% 6.0% 45,374 427,133 18,554,555

Race: White4 63.0% 68.6% 72.4% 703,549 5,486,852 223,553,265

Race: Black or African American4 9.0% 19.4% 12.6% 100,821 1,551,399 38,929,319

Race: American Indian and Alaska Native4 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 4,028 29,225 2,932,248

Race: Asian4 17.4% 5.5% 4.8% 194,255 439,890 14,674,252

Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 882 5,980 540,013

Race: Some Other Race4 6.1% 3.2% 6.2% 67,776 254,278 19,107,368

Race: Two or More Races4 4.1% 2.9% 2.9% 45,312 233,400 9,009,073

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)4 15.5% 7.9% 16.3% 173,147 631,825 50,477,594

Economic

Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian

population 16 years and over) 71.6% 64.7% 63.3% 656,021 4,266,800 158,897,824

Armed Forces Labor Force 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 10,956 109,986 1,015,464

Veterans, Age 18-64 7.1% 8.8% 5.5% 53,201 454,935 10,750,884

Median Household Income2 — — — $112,502 $65,015 $53,889

Per Capita Income2 — — — $51,081 $34,152 $28,930

Poverty Level (of all people) 5.9% 11.5% 15.5% 68,716 921,822 47,749,043

Households Receiving Food Stamps 4.2% 9.7% 13.2% 17,079 295,767 15,399,651

Mean Commute Time (minutes) — — — 31.9 27.9 25.9

Page 4: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

4

Summary1

Percent Value

Fairfax / Falls

Church Virginia USA

Fairfax / Falls

Church Virginia USA

Commute via Public Transportation 9.9% 4.6% 5.1% 61,804 183,183 7,362,038

Union Membership3 6.0% 4.7% 11.1% — — —

Educational Attainment, Age 25-64

No High School Diploma 7.5% 9.5% 11.8% 49,445 425,011 19,736,243

High School Graduate 12.1% 23.8% 26.4% 80,379 1,060,810 43,982,863

Some College, No Degree 13.6% 20.5% 21.7% 89,828 913,912 36,187,232

Associate's Degree 5.5% 7.9% 8.8% 36,322 350,791 14,742,654

Bachelor's Degree 32.2% 22.6% 19.9% 213,089 1,007,981 33,245,950

Postgraduate Degree 29.2% 15.8% 11.4% 193,282 706,207 18,952,103

Housing

Total Housing Units — — — 424,344 3,423,291 133,351,840

Median House Value (of owner-occupied units)2 — — — $502,936 $245,000 $178,600

Homeowner Vacancy 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2,492 35,627 1,492,691

Rental Vacancy 3.5% 6.1% 6.4% 4,868 68,583 2,949,366

Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 32.4% 33.8% 36.1% 131,339 1,035,778 42,214,214

Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of

Occupied Units) 4.5% 6.4% 9.1% 18,348 195,314 10,628,474

Social

Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 16,634 109,737 4,451,334

Disconnected Youth5 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% 764 9,091 518,859

Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 19.7% 31.3% 34.8% 53,719 556,588 24,408,909

Disabled, Age 18-64 4.8% 9.1% 10.3% 36,066 464,695 19,985,588

Disabled, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and

Size 56.4% 42.6% 41.0% 20,339 198,136 8,185,456

Foreign Born 29.8% 11.7% 13.2% 346,916 966,601 41,717,420

Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and

over) 14.4% 5.6% 8.6% 156,882 435,851 25,410,756

Source: JobsEQ® 1. ACS 2011-2015, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2014; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census 2010 5. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2015, annual average growth rate since 2005

Page 5: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

5

Employment Trends

As of 2016Q4, total employment for the Fairfax / Falls Church was 672,487 (based on a four-quarter moving

average). Over the year ending 2016Q4, employment increased 1.5% in the region.

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q2

with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4.

Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Fairfax / Falls Church was 3.4% as of December 2016. The

regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December 2015, the

unemployment rate in the Fairfax / Falls Church was 3.3%.

Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through December 2016.

Page 6: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

6

Wage Trends

The average worker in the Fairfax / Falls Church earned annual wages of $77,010 as of 2016Q4. Average annual

wages per worker decreased 0.8% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes,

annual average wages were $52,291 in the nation as of 2016Q4.

Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are

updated through 2016Q2 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4.

Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages

and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 42.0% higher in Fairfax / Falls

Church than the U.S. average.

Cost of Living Information

Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index

(Base US) US Purchasing Power

Fairfax / Falls Church $77,010 142.0 $54,237

Virginia $53,066 112.0 $47,400

USA $52,291 100.0 $52,291

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2016Q4 The Cost of Living Index is developed by Chmura Economics & Analytics and is updated quarterly.

Page 7: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

7

Industry Snapshot

The largest sector in the Fairfax / Falls Church is Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, employing 169,253

workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Health Care and Social Assistance (67,922 workers) and Retail

Trade (62,072). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of

employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Professional,

Scientific, and Technical Services (LQ = 3.82), Management of Companies and Enterprises (1.81), and Information

(1.61).

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q2

with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4.

Sectors in the Fairfax / Falls Church with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and

Enterprises ($156,688), Information ($126,990), and Wholesale Trade ($125,077). Regional sectors with the best job

growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Health Care and Social Assistance (+8,380 jobs),

Accommodation and Food Services (+7,400), and Public Administration (+3,644).

Over the next 10 years, employment in the Fairfax / Falls Church is projected to expand by 62,012 jobs. The fastest

growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.1% year-over-year rate of

growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Professional, Scientific, and

Technical Services (+29,546 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+15,995), and Administrative and Support

and Waste Management and Remediation Services (+3,520).

Page 8: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

8

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending with

2016q4

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Average Annual % Change in

Employment 2011q4-2016q4 Over the Next 10 Years

NAICS Industry Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages

Location

Quotient Empl

Fairfax /

Falls

Church

Virginia USA

Total

Approx

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

11 Agriculture, Forestry,

Fishing and Hunting 190 $18,573 0.02 9 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 66 -2 -0.1%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and

Oil and Gas Extraction 200 $78,443 0.07 -1 -0.1% -9.1% -3.5% 48 1 0.0%

22 Utilities 2,059 $90,541 0.57 46 0.5% -0.1% 0.2% 520 -37 -0.2%

23 Construction 30,081 $60,845 0.82 -1,366 -0.9% 0.8% 3.1% 6,175 3,312 1.0%

31 Manufacturing 6,389 $60,235 0.11 -3,538 -8.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1,402 -690 -1.1%

42 Wholesale Trade 14,515 $125,077 0.55 -642 -0.9% -0.3% 1.1% 3,283 899 0.6%

44 Retail Trade 62,072 $37,145 0.85 3,061 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 19,314 1,169 0.2%

48 Transportation and

Warehousing 13,365 $50,276 0.48 1,029 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3,359 -875 -0.7%

51 Information 21,747 $126,990 1.61 -2,319 -2.0% -1.5% 0.8% 5,170 -509 -0.2%

52 Finance and Insurance 27,179 $121,872 1.02 2,297 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 6,630 2,236 0.8%

53 Real Estate and Rental

and Leasing 11,751 $73,878 1.03 699 1.2% 0.7% 1.9% 2,694 809 0.7%

54 Professional, Scientific,

and Technical Services 169,253 $116,967 3.82 -6,204 -0.7% 1.0% 2.6% 37,593 29,546 1.6%

55 Management of

Companies and

Enterprises 17,682 $156,688 1.81 -1,703 -1.8% -0.2% 3.1% 3,798 617 0.3%

56

Administrative and

Support and Waste

Management and

Remediation Services

45,415 $54,056 1.04 2,640 1.2% 2.3% 2.7% 10,499 3,520 0.7%

61 Educational Services 53,554 $53,520 0.96 2,135 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 11,473 3,313 0.6%

62 Health Care and Social

Assistance 67,922 $58,239 0.71 8,380 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 14,369 15,995 2.1%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and

Recreation 12,505 $26,403 0.94 -236 -0.4% 1.5% 2.3% 3,913 889 0.7%

72 Accommodation and

Food Services 49,472 $23,077 0.83 7,400 3.3% 2.5% 3.2% 17,606 2,266 0.4%

81 Other Services (except

Public Administration) 32,667 $42,925 1.09 1,662 1.0% 1.0% -0.1% 8,295 1,190 0.4%

92 Public Administration 33,123 $93,121 1.03 3,644 2.4% 0.6% -0.1% 7,779 -1,781 -0.6%

99 Unclassified 1,346 $43,691 0.97 1,344 264.8% 35.6% 12.7% 340 123 0.9%

Total - All Industries 672,487 $77,010 1.00 18,336 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 170,013 62,012 0.9%

Source: JobsEQ® Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q2

with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 9: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

9

Occupation Snapshot

The largest major occupation group in the Fairfax / Falls Church is Office and Administrative Support Occupations,

employing 108,280 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related Occupations

(65,346 workers) and Computer and Mathematical Occupations (63,022). High location quotients (LQs) indicate

occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The

major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Computer and Mathematical Occupations (LQ = 3.40), Business

and Financial Operations Occupations (1.74), and Architecture and Engineering Occupations (1.57).

Occupation groups in the Fairfax / Falls Church with the highest average wages per worker are Management

Occupations ($143,300), Legal Occupations ($126,000), and Computer and Mathematical Occupations ($101,300).

The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.0% among Legal Occupations to 5.6%

among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations.

Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Fairfax / Falls Church is expected to be

Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of

jobs over this period is expected for Computer and Mathematical Occupations (+12,608 jobs) and Business and

Financial Operations Occupations (+7,526). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation

demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and

Administrative Support Occupations (23,385 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (20,486).

Occupation Snapshot in Fairfax / Falls Church

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending

with 2016q4 2016q3

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Avg Ann % Chg in Empl

2011q4-2016q4 Over the Next 10 Years

SOC Title Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages1

LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Empl

Fairfax /

Falls

Church

Virginia USA

Current

Online

Job Ads2

Total

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

11-0000

Management Occupations 46,286 $143,300 1.14 772 1.7% -132 -0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 3,808 14,084 5,360 1.1%

13-0000

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

56,971 $89,800 1.74 1,565 2.6% 156 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 4,404 12,832 7,526 1.2%

15-0000

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

63,022 $101,300 3.40 1,260 2.4% -2,636 -0.8% 1.2% 2.6% 12,929 10,316 12,608 1.8%

17-0000

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

17,607 $96,500 1.57 257 1.5% -1,283 -1.4% -0.6% 1.2% 1,001 4,540 1,751 1.0%

19-0000

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

8,342 $92,000 1.55 176 1.6% -578 -1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 536 2,628 913 1.0%

21-0000

Community and Social Service Occupations 7,631 $57,600 0.71 226 2.3% 890 2.5% 1.3% 1.7% 234 1,706 744 0.9%

23-0000 Legal Occupations 6,411 $126,000 1.21 92 1.0% -33 -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 181 1,304 511 0.8%

25-0000

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

37,328 $62,800 0.98 1,561 3.9% 1,089 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 856 8,270 2,858 0.7%

27- Arts, Design, 12,800 $68,900 1.09 490 3.3% -378 -0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 863 4,482 929 0.7%

Page 10: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

10

Occupation Snapshot in Fairfax / Falls Church

Current Historical Forecast

Four Quarters Ending

with 2016q4 2016q3

Total

Change

over the

Last 5

Years

Avg Ann % Chg in Empl

2011q4-2016q4 Over the Next 10 Years

SOC Title Empl

Avg.

Annual

Wages1

LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Empl

Fairfax /

Falls

Church

Virginia USA

Current

Online

Job Ads2

Total

Repl

Demand

Total

Growth

Demand

Avg.

Annual

Growth

Percent

0000 Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

29-0000

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

28,790 $87,900 0.76 400 1.3% 2,518 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1,749 6,687 5,427 1.7%

31-0000

Healthcare Support Occupations 14,868 $34,800 0.75 449 3.6% 2,141 3.2% 2.1% 2.3% 518 3,412 4,005 2.4%

33-0000

Protective Service Occupations 15,297 $49,700 1.18 460 3.0% -30 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1,369 3,011 509 0.3%

35-0000

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

48,388 $26,500 0.83 2,478 5.6% 6,622 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2,890 18,934 2,591 0.5%

37-0000

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

25,946 $29,400 1.07 1,004 4.2% 1,369 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 554 5,895 1,566 0.6%

39-0000

Personal Care and Service Occupations 24,757 $31,400 0.92 784 3.5% 2,580 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 1,163 7,293 3,214 1.2%

41-0000

Sales and Related Occupations 65,346 $49,400 0.93 2,103 3.7% 819 0.3% 0.8% 1.4% 5,318 20,486 3,196 0.5%

43-0000

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

108,280 $43,900 1.07 3,303 3.5% 4,304 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 3,643 23,385 3,322 0.3%

45-0000

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 444 $39,000 0.10 31 4.9% 4 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 18 155 -6 -0.1%

47-0000

Construction and Extraction Occupations 23,403 $50,400 0.78 806 4.0% -626 -0.5% 0.7% 2.4% 252 4,501 2,600 1.1%

49-0000

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

22,322 $54,800 0.87 571 3.0% 754 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 975 5,323 1,013 0.4%

51-0000

Production Occupations 12,519 $42,300 0.30 584 4.8% -1,055 -1.6% 0.7% 1.4% 285 3,255 253 0.2%

53-0000

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

25,730 $38,000 0.57 1,269 5.2% 1,841 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 778 6,886 1,037 0.4%

00-0000 Total - All Occupations 672,487 $64,800 1.00 n/a n/a 18,336 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 44,324 169,385 61,929 0.9%

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2016Q4 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2015 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of

postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of

Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q2, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4. Wages by

occupation are as of 2015 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional

growth patterns.

Page 11: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

11

Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Fairfax /

Falls Church with the highest relative concentration is Professional Svc. with a location quotient of 2.39. This cluster

employs 246,025 workers in the region with an average wage of $109,469. Employment in the Professional Svc.

cluster is projected to expand in the region about 1.3% per year over the next ten years.

Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated

through 2016Q2 with preliminary estimates updated to 2016Q4. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Education Levels

Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the

Fairfax / Falls Church is projected to grow 0.9% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a

postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.3% per year, those requiring a bachelor’s degree are forecast to grow

1.3% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.2% per year.

Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2016Q4. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the

Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 12: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

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12

Region Definition Fairfax / Falls Church is defined as the following counties: Fairfax County, Virginia; Fairfax City, Virginia; Falls

Church City, Virginia

Page 13: Economic Overview Fairfax / Falls Church › workforce › docs › economic... · regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.9%. One year earlier, in December

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2017 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

13

FAQ What is a location quotient?

A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has

the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the

expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment

in comparison to the nation.

What is replacement demand?

Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements—retirements and turnover resulting from workers

moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover—it does not include

when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be

understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the

occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and

the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of

the overall number of jobs in that occupation).

What is a cluster?

A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient

of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster.

What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages?

Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not

align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry

wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average

occupation wages in a region do not match exactly.

What is NAICS?

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the

type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the “all industry” level to the 6-digit level. The first two

digits define the top level category, known as the “sector,” which is the level examined in this report.

What is SOC?

The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers

are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification,

occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group

includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience.

About This Report

This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ®, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.

However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.