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Economic Returns Due to AlfalfaEconomic Returns Due to AlfalfaEconomic Returns Due to Alfalfa Economic Returns Due to Alfalfa Cultivar Selection Over 30 of Cultivar Selection Over 30 of Testing in CA EnvironmentsTesting in CA Environments
Authors:Authors:Daniel H. Putnam, Andre Biscaro, Steve Orloff, Craig Giannini, Chris DeBen, and Karen Klonsky(UCCE/U i it f C lif i D i CA)(UCCE/University of California, Davis, CA)
What is an alfalfa variety?
A population of plants consisting ofA population of plants consisting of genetically diverse individuals that have been selected for improved traits:p
yield, fall dormancy,
f
Considerable plant-to-plant variation,Multiple genotypes = Major asset = great
forage quality, persistence, disease and insect resistance;
p g yp j gadaptation
;
Percent Resistance Abbreviations resistance1
HR Hi hl R i t t 51%HR Highly Resistant >51%R Resistant 31-50%MR Moderate Resistant 15-30%MR Moderate Resistant 15 30%
LR Low Resistant 6-14%S Susceptible <5%T Tolerance --1 Percent of plants in a population resistant to a given pest
Locations used for the UC alfalfa cultivar testing program
Intermountain: FD: 2‐4Cuts: 3‐4Sites: Tulelake, Scott Valley.Elevation 2 100 3 950 ftElevation: 2,100‐3,950 ft
San Joaquin Valley:
FD: 7‐9Cuts: 7‐8
Sacramento Valley:
FD: 4‐8Cuts: 5‐7Sites: DavisElev.: 65 ft
Coastal Valleys: FD: 4‐8Cuts: 5‐7Sites: Variable
Sites: Parlier, Five PointsElev.: 330‐660 ft
Elev.: 65‐165 ft
High Desert: FD: 5‐8Cuts: 6‐7Sites: LancasterEl 2 300 2 600 ft
Total California Alfalfa Production (2007)• 987 493 a( 399 632 ha) Elev.: 2,300‐2,600 ft
Low Desert: FD: 8‐11Cuts: 7‐11Sites: El Centro,
• 987,493 a( 399,632 ha)• 7.1 t/a (15.9 Mg/ha)• Value: $1.17 Billion • Largest acreage crop in CA
‐NASS data
BlytheElev.: minus 260 ft
Total California Alfalfa Production
- Approx. 930,000 acres - 7.1 t/a - Value: $1.17 Billion
L t i CA- Largest acreage crop in CA
Why look at variety trials? “ASS,U,ME”
Scientific approach – follows protocols; Decades of breeding for pest-resistant,
high-yielding and high-quality alfalfa; Losses are seldom recognized; Primary step in IPM – cost effective; Measure for dealing with insects and diseases.
VARIETY SELECTION SETS THE UPPER LIMIT OF YIELD & PERFORMANCELIMIT OF YIELD & PERFORMANCE
However…
Some growers still don’t take sufficient time Some growers still don t take sufficient time to compare varieties
And simply favor inexpensive seed And simply favor inexpensive seed…
Economic Analysis
Enables a more rational approach to the value of variety data to guide cultivar selection
Seed costs as a percentage of production
Establishment costs
seed 12%
4-Year production costsseed 2%
Other Establish
ment Costs 88%
Other Production Costs
98%
Title $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700
Economic Value Due only to Variety Choice (Single year ‐ 2009 Data, UC Davis)
$/acre (yield diff. * $150)
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700
Magna 801 FQ
WL 530HQ
HybriForce 800
8R100
PGI 608
Pacifico
Integra 8800
Magna 788
Magna 995
Artesian Sunrise
HybriForce 700
Sutter
Cisco
DKA 50‐18 Differential Economic Effect of Variety Choice:
Fraction of a ton?TruTest
WL 440HQ
6R100
Differential Economic Effect of Variety Choice:Assumptions:*Hay Price: 150$/ton *Response averaged over 1 year as per UC Davis 08-planted Variety Trial. First full year of production.
Difference due to added seed cost: ($3.00/lb) at 20
/
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
Economic Value Due only to Variety Choice (Three Year - Fresno County West Side Data, 2007-2009)
$/acre 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
WL 535HQDesert Sun 8. 10RR
GrandslamPacifico
AL 999
$/acre
AL 999CW 1010
INTEGRA 8900WL 660RR
Dura 843WL 625HQ
59N5959N59TriplePlay
AmeriStand 855RRRevolution
CW 909CUF101
Magna801FQ LSD (P< 0.10)Impalo WF
CW 801RRALF 8R100
798 alfalfaWL 550RR
DKA84-10RRHi hli
( )
Difference in Cost due to a $3/lbHighline
INTEGRA 8801RConquistador
SequoiaINTEGRA 8800
DKA65-10RRWildcard
Differential Economic Effect of Variety Choice:Assumptions:*Hay Price: 150$/ton less additional seed costs.*Seeding Rate: 20 lbs/acre
due to a $3/lb INCREASE in seed cost ($60/acre)
WildcardAmeriStand 815TRR
RRALF 6R100Integra 8400R
*Seeding Rate: 20 lbs/acre*Varieties perform as per Research Trial
THE VALUE OF IMPROVED VARIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS EXCEEDS DIFFERENCES IN SEED COSTS
Choice of Variety
High Yielding Variety (Seed A)
Medium Yielding Variety (Seed B)
Low Yielding Variety (Seed C)
Economic consequences of choosing varieties
Seed price ($/Lb) 3.50 2.50 1.50
Potential yield (ton/A/yr) 12.8 11.6 10.9
Seed cost ($/A) 87.50 62.50 37.50
* Gross Returns 3yrs ($/A) 5,760 5,220 4,905
Net - Seed cost ($/A) 5,673 5,158 4,868
Seeding Rate (Lb/A) Difference in Return ($/A) vs. lower yielding variety**
10 835 305 -
20 815 295 -
30 795 285 -
40 775 275 -40 775 275
* Gross Returns = Potential yield (from variety trials) * $150
** Assuming differences among A B and C are only due to variety choice Assuming differences among A, B and C are only due to variety choice
Hay price = $150
Yi ld diff i d t j tifYield difference required per year to justify an increase in seed price, amortized over
4 years
4 0
5.0
6.0
on/A
/yr)
Yield differences (top to bottom) between varieties - Five Points, CA 2007-2009
5.0
6.0
on/A
/yr)
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.14
0.15 0.161.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Yiel
d di
ffere
nce
(to
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Yie
ld D
iffer
ence
(to
0.00.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8
Aditional price of seed ($/Lb)
0.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Alfalfa Varieties
Y
How much more would you pay to have a variety that produces an extra ton/A/yr?
If a Seed A produces 1 ton/A/yr more than If a Seed A produces 1 ton/A/yr more than Seed B, then it would be feasible to pay up to $24/Lb more for Seed A;$ ;
[1 ton = $150 = $600 (4 years): $600/25Lb = $24/Lb]
*Seeding rate of 25Lb/A
What is the actual economic value of i d i i ?improved varieties?
…it’s difficult to measure directly!Li it tiLimitations:
Transferability of Data - Degree to which yield performance in trials match farmer’s fields
Adaptation Rate - Extent to which farmers and seed companies choose varieties based upon this information
Value of Yield vs. Other Traits - The relationship of yield to other valuable attributes (e.g. resistance to disease and insects, forage quality, persistence, salt tolerance, herbicide tolerance). Improved varieties may have other benefits besides simply yield
Masking of Genetic Potential with other practices, such as suboptimum cutting schedules, pest management, fertility practices which limit the genetic advantages of better varieties
Total Annual Gross Economic Value and value potentially due to variety
$1,200,000
y
(X 1,000)
$1,065,214
$800,000
$1,000,000
$319,081 $400,000
$600,000 30%.
$‐
$200,000
Due to Variety Total Value
Due to Variety Total Value
(Normalized to 2009 dollars, averaged over 30 years of California production)
Summation Data from Multiple Trials
Table 2. Summary of Alfalfa Cultivar Trials conducted from 1974 through 2009 in the different production regions of California. Each N is the summation of a multi-year trial (for example, a 3-year trial, 35 varieties, 7 cuts/year at Davis). The average yield difference is the top-to-
Summation Data from Multiple Trials
Average Yield Regional Potential Yield
RegionNumber of
TrialsHarvests Per
yearDuration of
TestingTotal Number
of HarvestsAverage
Trial YieldDifference Due
to VarietyContribution to CA
ProductionDifference Due
to Variety(N) C t Y (N) t/ t/ % %
bottom difference averaged across all the trials in a region. Most trials are conducted for 3 years. Statewide averages are weighted based upon percent acreage of regions.
(N) Cuts Years (N) t/a t/a % %Intermountain 32 3 to 4 128 379 6.2 1.5 10% 23.9%Sacramento Valley 27 5 to 7 87 498 9.3 2.6 14% 28.4%San Joaquin Valley 25 7 to 8 86 556 10.1 3.5 54% 34.3%Coastal 4 4 to 5 9 38 4.0 1.1 1% 27.4%High Desert 4 6 to 7 12 78 9.2 1.8 2% 19.1%L D t 21 8 t 11 56 356 7 8 1 6 20% 21 0%Low Desert 21 8 to 11 56 356 7.8 1.6 20% 21.0%
Statewide 113 6 to 7 378 1905 8.9 2.7 100% 30.0%
Effect of Region on Economic Return Due to V i t
500
600
Variety
300
400
500
cre
Price: 150$/ton
100
200
300
$/ac
0
100
Figure 6 Regional differences due to variety These are the average top-to-bottom yield differences due to variety averaged across all UCFigure 6. Regional differences due to variety. These are the average top to bottom yield differences due to variety, averaged across all UC trials, over the past 30 years, multiplied by $150/ton. This represents 378 location/years of testing statewide.
Total value and the value potentially due to i 30 i C lif ivariety, over 30 years in California.
$1,400,000
$1,600,000Value of California Alfalfa, 1980‐2009
Total
(X 1,000)
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
PotentialValueDue
Total
$0
$200,000
$400,000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
to Variety
CONCLUSIONS
Potential yield increases due to variety choice Potential yield increases due to variety choice are economically significant for farmers;
This value easily exceeds differences in seed costs especially over years;costs, especially over years;
CONCLUSIONS
Avg yield differences due to variety as Avg. yield differences due to variety, as measured in 378 location/yrs in CA field trials was 2.7 ton/a/yr, or approx. 30% of the mean y , pp %values;
Yield differences due to variety were greater in some regions than othersin some regions than others.
CONCLUSIONS
Thank you for your attention! Thank you for your attention!
Questions/Comments? Questions/Comments?
Assumptions for these Calculations:
Potential yield differences are similar to thosePotential yield differences are similar to those measured in 378 trial years of UC variety tests, as a percent of average value
Economic value due to yield alone, not other genetic traits
Does not consider yield effects on supply-demand curves, or the effects of forage quality on price and the yield quality tradeoffquality on price and the yield-quality tradeoff
This is a description of the maximum effects on economic returns due to varietyon economic returns due to variety.