ECONOMIC SURVEY · 2020. 4. 29. · The report benefitted from the World ank and Statistics Sweden by providing technical support in design of the Economic Survey Report and the Popular

ECONOMIC SURVEY 2020

02 Economic Survey 2020

Foreword The Popular Version is based on a master set of data on the 2020 Economic Survey publication that has been compiled by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). It is an easy to read publication with highlights on economic performance and indicators in 2019. The Economic Survey is an annual publication focusing on the socio-economic highlights of the economy for the last five years. The report forms an important source of input into the budgeting, planning, monitoring and poli-cy formulation processes with guidance to national development policy and investment decisions. Finally, it gives an analysis of data collected through Administrative sources supplemented by surveys and censuses. Zachary Mwangi EBS Director General, KNBS

Acknowledgements The authors of various chapters received overall guidance from the KNBS Editorial Team under the leadership of Directors, for reviewing the report to ensure that it complies with the standard requirements for quality statis-tics. The report benefitted from the World Bank and Statistics Sweden by providing technical support in design of the Economic Survey Report and the Popular Version publications. The Bureau acknowledges and appreciates the role they played, and their continued support that resulted in the publication of this report.

About Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is established by an Act of Parliament, the Statistics Act No. 4 of

2006, as a State Corporation and its mandate is anchored on the Constitution of Kenya, 2010. The Bureau is the

principal agency of the Government for collecting, analyzing and disseminating statistical data in Kenya and as

the custodian of official statistical information.

Vision To be a global leader in the provision of quality statistical services. Mission

To provide, manage and promote quality statistical services through utilization of best practices for evidence based decision making.

Mandate

The KNBS is the principal agency of the government for collecting, compiling, analysing, publishing and dissemi-

nating statistical information needed for planning and policy formulation. The Bureau is also responsible for co-

ordination of the National Statistical System (NSS) in the country.

Core Values

• Professionalism: The Bureau will strictly abide by professional considerations, including scientific principles and ethics on methods, standards and procedures for provision of quality statistical services.

• Integrity: The Bureau will adhere to the principles of good governance to ensure transparency and ac-countability in undertaking it’s programmes and activities.

• Confidentiality: The Bureau will treat all information provided by stakeholders with strict confidentiality and use it exclusively for statistical purposes.

• Customer focus: The Bureau commits itself to align its programmes to the expectations of all stakeholders and attaining the highest standards in service delivery.

• Innovation: The Bureau will continuously embrace creativity and innovation for value-addition in its business processes.

• Teamwork: The Bureau will embrace teamwork in pursuing timely attainment of targeted results at all levels, through coordination and networking.



Performance of Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2015- 2019

2019 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

DESCRIPTION Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Inflation ( % ) 6.6 6.3 8.0 4.7 5.2

Current Account as a percentage of GDP ( % ) -6.9 -5.8 -7.2 -5.8 -5.8

CBK interest rates ( % ) 11.5 10.0 10.0 9.0 8.5

KSh/USD exchange rate ( KSh) 98.2 101.5 103.4 101.3 102.0

GDP Growth ( % ) 5.7 5.9 4.8 6.3 5.4

GDP Growth Rate

Agriculture, Forestry and fishing 3.6%

Public administration & Defense 8.1%

Transport & Storage 7.8%

Manufacturing 3.2%

Real Estate 5.3%

Education 5.4%

Construction 6.4%

Information & Communication 8.8%

Financial & Insurances activities 6.6%

Electricity Supply 7.9%

Accommodation & Food service 10.3%

Overall GDP Growth

5.4%

Mining 2.5%

Wholesale & Retail trade; 6.6%

Human health & social work 5.8%

Sectoral performance in 2019

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimat-

ed to have decelerated by 5.4 per cent in

2019 compared to a 6.3 per cent growth in

2018.

Annual Global inflation rates, 2000-2019

World GDP, 2019

2019 WORLD ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE


United States of America

2.3%

United Kingdom

1.2%

Germany

0.6%

China

6.1%

Japan

1.0%

Brazil

1.1%

Uganda

4.9% Tanzania

6.3 %

South Africa

0.2%

Kenya

5.4%

Employment Growth Rates, 2018-2019

2018 2019

Education 576,831 598,130

Agriculture 336,607 338,578

Manufacturing 307,592 353,322 Public administration 295,009 304,617 Wholesale & Retail 260,426 269,175

Wage employment by selected industries, 2018-2019

2018 2019 Informal Sector 82.6% 83.0% Formal Sector 16.5% 16.1% Self-employed 0.9% 0.9%

Employment as at 30th June 2018 2019 Public 842,935 865,233 Private 2,017,000 2,063,100

Share of Employment


EMPLOYMENT

CONSUMER PRICES

DOMESTIC ECONOMY

11.9% 8.2% 9.7% 6.0% 7.8% 9.4% 0.2% 3.9%

Overall Inflation

5.2%

Inflation increased to 5.2% in 2019 from 4.7% in 2018 attributable to rise in transportation, food and beverage

prices arising from constrained domestic supply

Average Annual Inflation Rate, 2015-2019

Food Commodities


Share of Commercial Banks' Bills, Loans and Advances to the private Sector, 2019

MONEY, BANKING AND FINANCE

Performance of the stock market , 2015-2019

Financial Institutions 4.6%

Commercial Banks' Bills, Loans &

Advances to the Private Sector

KSh 2,101.8bn

Wholesale & Retail 22.2%

Manufacturing 17.4%

Real Estate 17.8%

Transport &

Storage 8.9%

Agriculture 3.9%

Mining and Quarrying and;

Other Business 19.7%

Building & Construction

5.5%

Sources of Government Revenue1 2015/16 - 2019/20

National Government Expenditure by main Functions of Government (COFOG), 2019

PUBLIC FINANCE


Education 15.3% Economic Affairs 18.0%

Other National Government Expenditures 41.7%

KSh 3,256.1 billion

Public Order & Safety 5.5%

General Public Services 10.6%

Environmental Protection 0.4%

Defense 4.9%

Health 3.6%

Principal Imports, 2015-2019

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Principal Exports, 2015-2019


Import bill grew by 2.4 per cent in 2019 mainly due to increased imports of petrole-um products; industrial ma-chineries; iron and steel; road motor vehicles. Total export declined by 2.9 per cent to KSh 596.7 billion in 2019, with horticulture, tea and; apparel and clothing being the major foreign exchange earners in 2019.

Key origin/destination of Kenya products 2019

Key

Origins

Destinations

India 9.9 %

Japan 5.5%

China 20.9%

UAE 9.3%

Pakistan 7.6 %

UK 6.7 %

Uganda 10.7 %

US 8.7 %

Netherlands 8.0 %

Value of Horticulture exports

5.9%

Sugarcane Production

12.5%

Tea Production

6.9% Coffee Production

8.8%

Wheat Production

8.8%

Maize Production

10.8%

Overall Growth

3.6.%

Recorded milk production, 2015-2019 Recorded maize production, 2015-2019

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Performance of Key Agricultural Products in 2019


The quantities of milk deliveries made to dairy processors increased by 5.3% per cent from 634.3 million litres in 2018 to 668.2 million litres in 2019.

Production of maize reduced by 10.8% from a production of 44.6 million bags in 2018 to 39.8 million bags in 2019, mainly attributable to unfa-vorable weather conditions especially reduced long rains in the maize growing areas.

Minerals

Forest Cover

ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES


National

Government

water supply

2015/16

54,634.0M

Key Species of Wildlife in Rangelands, 2019

230,355 tonnes of Soda Ash were

produced in 2019, translating to a

32.1% increase.

Titanium Ore production de-

clined by 18.7% to

486,152 tonnes in 2019.

State forest plantation rose by 4.2% in 2019 as a result of the ban on logging imposed in

2019.

19,500

141,400

22,100

288,000

18,000

109,300

Long Rains (March, April & May) Performance in 2019

Electricity generation in Gwh, 2019

Petroleum fuels sales by Consumer Category, 2019

ENERGY


In 2019 international oil prices went down following increases in US petroleum production thus limiting the effect on prices from Saudi Ara-

bia, and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela that limited crude oil exports.

The number of customers connected un-der rural electrification programme in-

creased by 5.8% to 1,409,256 in 2017/18.

Geo Thermal energy

Retail pump outlets and road transport had the highest share of petroleum sales at 72.1% of the total domestic sales of petroleum products in 2019.

MANUFACTURING SECTOR

Performance of Manufacturing Sector in 2019


The number of assembled mo-tor vehicles went up by 38.0% to 7,802 vehicles in 2019 re-sulting to a 21.4% growth in motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers subsector.

Production of beverages went up by 8.2% in 2019 attributable to increased production of spirits, bottled water and beer.

The wearing apparel subsec-tor registered a 1.8% growth in 2019 as result of increased production of shirts, T- Shirts, babies' garments and cardi-gan/jersey.

The sector’s volume of output expanded by 1.8% in 2019 from a revised growth of 5.6% in 2018 on account of increased in production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, dairy products and pharmaceuticals.

Value of plans approved and building works completed in Nairobi City, 2015-2019

Total Government expenditure on roads is expected to rise by 10.0% per cent to KSh 169.9 billion in 2019/20 from KSh 154.5 billion in

2018/19. The number of completed public residential buildings was 530 with a total of 5,134 housing units still under construction by the

National Housing Corporation and the State Department of Housing.

BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION


Construction of a building

Road construction

Transport & Storage Output, 2019

Passenger transport by air, 2017-2019

TRANSPORT AND STORAGE


Revenue from freight services increased to KSh 11.9 billion in 2019 from KSh 4.1 billion in 2018.

2018 Domestic Arrivals - 2,464,450 Departure - 2,316,653 International Arrivals - 3,365,501 Departure - 2,111,168 In Transit - 1,463,900



Total 10,118,164

Total 11,721,672

Total 12,079,300

Transport by Rail, 2019

Rail Transport

1.1%

Water Transport

5.7%

Air Transport

13.8% Postal & Courier Services

2.6%

Road Transport

62.6%

Pipeline Transport

2.3%

TOTAL KSh 1,399.4

bn

Services Incidental to Transport

12.0%

Hotel Bed-nights, Availability and Occupancy, 2018-2019

Performance of the Tourism industry in 2019

TOURISM SECTOR


2018 8,617,880

2018 26,500,641

2019 29,742,878

Available Beds Occupied Beds

2019 9,160,800

The number of international visitor arrivals

increased by 0.4% to 2.04million in 2019 surpassing the two million-mark for the second successive year.

The number of tourists to Na-tional Parks and game reserves grew by 3.7% to 3million in 2019.

Tourism earnings rose by 3.9% to KSh 163.6 billion in 2019 supported by political stability and height-ened security in the country.

University Enrolment in 2019/20

EDUCATION


Pupil Completion Rate and Primary to Secondary Transition Rate, 2015 - 2019

Government Loans and Bursaries awarded; and Loan Repayments, 2014/15 - 2018/19

University enrolment is expected to decline by 1.9% to 509,473 in 2019/20 mainly as a result of

declining number of candidates joining universities through self-sponsored programmes.

Pneumonia

Malaria

Cancer

HIV/AIDS

Anaemia

HEALTH AND VITAL STATISTICS

Types of personnel

Registered Health personnel, 2019

Leading Causes of Infants Admissions in Health Facilities in 2019


Registered health

personnel

3.6%

Top 5 Facility based Incidence of Diseases in 2019

6.0%

12.7%

14.0%

17.0%

Respiratory Sys-tem Diseases

Total disease incidences reported in public health facili-ties increased by 17.3% to 87.8 million cases in 2019 with respiratory system being the leading cause of morbidity at 25.0%.

National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF)

Reported crime and type, 2019

GOVERNANCE

Convicted Prisoners by Sex, 2015-2019

Pending cases at the end of 2019 were 586 thousand, a growth of 2.6% from the previous year. Convicted prisoners declined

from 84 thousand in 2018 to 77 thousand in 2019.


Key ICT indicators for total population, 2015-2019

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT)


Banking hall

Mobile network

Agent

Money Transfers

Customer

In 2019, mobile penetration went up by 7.9% to 114.7 per 100 inhabitants, mobile commerce transfers grew by 14.5% while mobile money transfers increased by KSh 362 billion.

Fiber connection

Mobile money transactions, 2015 – 2019


NOTES

Real Towers Upper Hill along Hospital Road

Documents

ECONOMIC SURVEY · 2020. 4. 29. · The report benefitted from the World ank and Statistics Sweden by providing technical support in design of the Economic Survey Report and the Popular