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Economics of Resilience in North Idaho
Headwaters Economics is an independent, nonprofit research group. Our mission is to improve community development and land management decisions in
the West.http://www.headwaterseconomics.org
Megan Lawson, PhDNovember 5, 2015
Behind the Grit and Persistence“Through grit and persistence, the center is holding in this Western small town, against forces that are turning other hamlets into ghost towns.”
- Kirk Johnson, New York Times, July 3, 2015
Photo: Ruth Fremson/New York Times
Three Wests
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2.
3.
4.
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3.
4.
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4.
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
What’s behind the diverse economy?Spoiler alert: it’s not (only) tourism
Change in compensation, 2001-2013
Focus on ManufacturingFruit and vegetable preserving and specialty Cement and concrete product mfg. Motor vehicle parts mfg.
Animal slaughtering and processing Cutlery and hand tool mfg. Aerospace product and parts mfg.
Bakeries and tortilla mfg. Architectural and structural metals mfg. Ship and boat building
Other food mfg. Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Other transportation equipment mfg.
Beverage mfg. Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals Household and institutional furniture mfg.
Textile furnishings mills Industrial machinery mfg. Office furniture and fixtures mfg.
Other textile product mills Commercial and service industry machinery Medical equipment and supplies mfg.
Cut and sew apparel mfg. HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment Other miscellaneous mfg.
Sawmills and wood preservation Other general purpose machinery mfg. Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg.
Plywood and engineered wood product mfg. Computer and peripheral equipment mfg. Plastics product mfg.
Other wood product mfg. Electronic instrument mfg.
Printing and related support activities Electric lighting equipment mfg.
Advanced IndustriesBrookings Institution, 2015:• Sectors that invest heavily in R&D• Rely in large part on workers with skills in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math• In the US, they represent 5% of the workforce but produce 17% of GDP• Since 1980, advanced industry jobs have grown 30% faster than the US economy as a
whole.
Advanced Industries in Bonner County• In 2012, 7% of all establishments in the county were Advanced Industries, which would
rank Bonner County 66th in the top 100 metropolitan counties in the US.• Advanced Industries grew by 31% from 2003-2012.
Sectors with the most establishments:• Power generation• Industrial machinery manufacturing• Electronic instrument manufacturing• Motor vehicle parts manufacturing• Aerospace product and parts
manufacturing• Medical equipment and supplies
manufacturing• Information services• Architectural and engineering
services• Computer systems design services• Management and technical
consulting services• Scientific research and development
services
What role does tourism play?1
99
8
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
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06
20
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20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2,187
8,785
Travel & Tourism Non-Travel & Tourism
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2013. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, Washington, D.C.
• Consistent economic engine
• Marketing the community to business owners, retirees, entrepreneurs
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
Broadband can shorten distanceBroadband is a potential solution, but availability, affordability, and reliability lag in Bonner and Boundary County, and many rural places.
Limits the types of businesses, footloose entrepreneurs that can thrive
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
Primary and Secondary Education• Despite the relatively low funding per student, the district’s schools have high
scores in statewide standardized tests, ranking 19th out of 92 districts in the state
• Residents of the Lake Pend Oreille School District passed a levy in early 2015 to supplement state and federal funding, providing $7.9 million per year for two years, or 30 percent of the total school district’s budget.
• Passed by 70%
• P-TECH: connecting high school students to local employers• North Idaho High School Aerospace Program
Current Workforce CapacityAdult educational attainment lags behind much of the region
Pacific NW Idaho Bonner County Boundary County Pacific NW0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10%11%
9%
15%
30%
25%
21%
15%
% of population with no high school degree % of population with Bachelor’s degree and higher
Housing AffordabilityHousing affordability is critical to maintaining competitive advantage, economic diversity, and quality of life
North Idaho is affordable relative to Idaho and the Pacific Northwest…
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2013. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Office, Washington, D.C.
Pacific Northwest Idaho Bonner Boundary$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800 $1,666
$1,231
$1,334
$1,150
$915
$728 $716 $660
Average monthly cost, Owner Average monthly cost, Renter
Housing AffordabilityHousing affordability is critical to maintaining competitive advantage, economic diversity, and quality of life
… but increasingly unaffordable on local wages.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2013. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Office, Washington, D.C.
Pacific Northwest Idaho Bonner Boundary0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
38%
34%
50%
39%
48%45% 46%
43%
Housing Costs as a Percent of Household Income, Owner Housing Costs as a Percent of Household Income, Renter
Elements of rural economic development
Build on strengths and shore up weaknesses
1. A diversified economy
2. Access to larger markets
3. A well-educated workforce, suited to current and future employer needs
4. Residents committed to the community and the area’s quality of life
Some jobs lost, but most people stayed
1970
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1995
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2000
2001
2002
2003
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2006
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
22,425
1970
1971
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2011
2012
2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000 40,699
Population
Jobs
How to measure quality of life?
• Mountains, lakes, and rivers
• Entrepreneurship
• Commuting time
• Arts and public spaces
• Trails• Miles• Public investment• Private investment
Local Strengths and WeaknessesStrengths
• Manufacturing size and breadth• Growing advanced industries• Consistent tourism draw• High quality primary and secondary
education• Commercial and residential real estate
affordable, relative to the region• Residents’ commitment to the
community• High quality of life
Weaknesses
• Distance to markets• Low download and upload speeds• Low educational attainment of current
workforce• Commercial and residential real estate
unaffordable and rising relative to local wages
Tools to understand your community
Megan Lawson, PhD406-570-7475
www.headwaterseconomics.org
Economic Profile System: http://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/economic-profile-system
Three Wests: http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests
West Wide Atlas: http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas
