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John RoseChief Economist
Financial Services and Utilities
How is Edmontons 99% Doing?
February 20, 2013
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Agenda
International Context
Why Worry?
Canada and the Provinces Canadian Metropolitan Areas
Cross sectional evidence for Structure
Edmonton and Calgary Time series evidence for Structure
Be careful what you wish for
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Income Share of the Top 1%
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
USA
GBR
CAN
DEU
CHE
IRL
PRT
ITA
JPN
NZL
AUS
FRA
ESP
FIN
BEL
DNK
NOR
SWE
NLD
2007 1990
Source: OECD
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Potential Causes
Globalization
Technological Change
Shifts in Economic Structure Policy
Deregulation Citizens as consumers rather
then workers
Taxes and Transfers Flat taxes and a
shredded social safety net
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Why Worry?
Growth Stiglitz/IMF greater inequality can slow
growth
Stability James Galbraith unequal economies are
volatile
Social Payoff Wilkinson & Pickett on the broader
benefits
of equity
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Growth in Real Median Income1982 to 2010
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
ALBA
ONT
NB
NS
MAN
SASK
NFLD
Canada
Quebec
BC
PEI
Top 1% Bot tom 99%
Source: Statistics Canada
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Changes in Real Median Income1982 to 2007
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
NB
MAN
NS
ONT
NFLD
SASK
ALBA
Canada
Quebec
BC
PEI
Top 1% Bottom 99%
Source: Statistics Canada
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Income Share of the Bottom 99%
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Halifax
Montral
Qubec
Hamilton
Ottawa
Toronto
Winnipeg
Regina
Saskatoon
Calgary
Edmonton
Vancouver
Victoria
Source: Statistics Canada
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The Impact of StructureCanadas Top 13 CMAs 2010
R2
= 0.6473
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00%
Bus Services Share of Employment
IncomeShareoftheBottom
99%
Source: City of Edmonton
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Income Shares of the Top 1%
57
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
%
Canada Alberta Calgary Edmonton
Source: Statistics Canada
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Employment in Business Services
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Calgary Edmonton
Source: Conference Board of Canada
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The Impact of StructureCalgary
y = 2.0838x - 12.159
R2
= 0.865
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Bus Services Share of Employment
Top1%S
hareofInc
ome
Source: City of Edmonton
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The Impact of StructureEdmonton
y = 1.4834x - 2.4783
R2
= 0.7091
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bis Services Share of Employment
Top1%S
hareofInc
ome
Source: City of Edmonton
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Growth in Real Median Income1982 to 2010
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Canada
Alberta
Edmonton
Calgary
Top 1% Bottom 99%
Source: Statistics Canada
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Q & A
John Rose
Chief Economist
Financial Services and Utilities
5th Floor, Chancery Hall
Edmonton, Alberta, T5J 2C3
(780) 496-6070
[email protected]
Updates and newsletter available at:
www.edmonton.ca/economicnews
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