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Education, Equity & the Economy
Findings from State of the South 2004
Sarah Rubin, Senior Associate
MDC Inc.
RCCA Conference -- October 2004
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Big Trends
The South's population is changing.
The South's economy is changing.
High school education is changing – and it needs to.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
South’s Population: More Diverse
Population Change by Age and Race, South 1990-2000
714,154
954,059
1,026,464
955,730
4,058,333
1,242,477
120,961
695,636
2,130,985
1,665,564
255,780
373,138
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Under 20
20-44
45-64
65+
Ag
e
Black Hispanic Non-Hispanic White, other races, and people of more than one race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Children in Poverty, 2000
17%
22% 22%
19% 18%20%
26% 26%
17%
20% 19% 18%
22%
12%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
US AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: Kids Count / U.S. Census
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
More Offices, Fewer Factories
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Percent Employed by Occupation, South 1990 & 2000
11%14%
13%
16%
11%
17%
7%
10%
1%
6%9%
11%
1%
15%
12%
15%
19%
13%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Man
agem
ent,
busi
ness
, &fin
ance
Pro
fess
iona
l&
rel
ated
Ser
vice
Sal
es
Offi
ce &
adm
in s
uppo
rt
Far
min
g,fis
hing
, &fo
rest
ry
Con
stru
ctio
n,ex
trac
tion,
&m
aint
enan
ce
Pro
duct
ion
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
& m
ater
ial
mov
ing
1990 2000
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Fast-Growing Occupations Require Education Beyond High SchoolEducation level
% of all jobs, 2000
% of new jobs, 2000-2010
Projected rate of growth
Mean earnings, 2000
BA+ 21% 29% 22% $56,500
2-year degree or
certificate
8% 13% 24% $35,700
Work-related training
71% 58% 12% $26,000
Source: BLS Monthly Labor Review, Nov. 2001
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Less-Educated Men: Falling Behind
U.S. Earnings by Educational Attainment, Men Age 18+, 1975 and 2001
$51,873
$35,568
$25,818
$34,482
$63,354
$21,508
$32,363
$37,429
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
<HS HS Some college BA
1975
2001
Source: Postsecondary Ed Opportunity, March 2003 (based on CPS data)
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
How Well Are High Schools Preparing Youth for the Future Economy?
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
The Muddled Middle
Two clear pathways out of high school: Further education and career. Disconnection from society and opportunity.
Muddled middle, filled with young people for whom high school fails to provide direction or motivation.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Enrollment Up in Advanced Math
Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Measuring Up 2002.
Percent of HS students taking at least one upper-level math course (Algebra II or above), 1999-2000
34%
51% 53%46%
55%61%
43%
52%56% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AL AR KY LA MS NC OK TN TX WV
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Advanced Placement WidespreadPercent of Public HS's Offering AP Courses, 2002
65%
36% 36%
86%82%
75%
24%
34%
93%
56%
94%
61%
71%
87%
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
US AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: SREB
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
More Minorities and Women Going to CollegeIn Southern colleges and universities: Black enrollment rose 48% during the 1990s. Hispanic enrollment rose 70%. Women’s enrollment has risen steadily since
the late 1970s. White male enrollment dropped slightly in the
1990s.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Achievement Gap Persists
Source: NCES Reading Highlights 2003.
State All Students
White Black Hispanic
AL 22% 30% 9% -
AR 27% 33% 6% -
FL 27% 37% 11% 25%
GA 26% 36% 12% 19%
KY 34% 36% 14% 16%
LA 22% 33% 9% -
MS 21% 32% 9% -
NC 29% 38% 13% 15%
OK 30% 34% 13% 17%
SC 24% 35% 10% -
TN 26% 32% 9% -
TX 26% 39% 14% 14%
VA 36% 44% 15% 31%
WV 25% 25% 13% -
US 30% 39% 12% 14%
2003 NAEP 8th Grade Reading Scores by Race/Ethnicity:Percent Who Scored Proficient or Higher
(Percents in blue are at or above the US average)
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Too Few High School Graduates
Public High School Graduation Rates, 2001
66%75%
56%56%
71%70%
64%63%
77%57%
60%67%
74%84%
70%
40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
ALAR
FL
GAKY
LAMS
NC
OKSC
TNTX
VA
WVUS
Source: Jay P. Greene and Greg Forster, "Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the U.S., Education Working Paper No. 3," Center for Civic Innovation at the Manhattan Institute, September 2003.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Attainment: Race, Ethnic Gaps
31%
46%
25%
13% 12%
18%
23% 22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Total White Black Hispanic
<HS BA+
Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity, 2000: Less than High School or BA+
Source: U.S. Census
NOTE: "White" is non-Hispanic white.
"Black" is defined by the Census category "black alone"
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Attainment: Metro/Nonmetro
Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and Metro/Nonmetro, 2000: Less than High School or BA+
14%
22%
28%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Metro Nonmetro
<HS
BA+
Source: March 2000 CPS
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Drift Into Resegregation
1954 1970 1988 2001
Percentage of Southern Black Students in Majority-White Schools, 1954-2001
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Source: Brown at Fifty: King's Dream or Plessy's Nightmare? Gary Orfield and Chungmei Lee, Harvard Civil Rights Project, January 2004.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Schools: Levers for Change
Today, education is perhaps the most important function of state and local governments… It is the very foundation of good citizenship.
– US Supreme Court, 1954
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Four Challenges
Sustained prosperity requires more people with higher skills and education beyond high school.
Young population is increasingly Latino and African American.
Many low-income youth attend isolated, resource-poor schools.
High schools fail to engage and inspire many students, regardless of income and race.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Levers for Change
1. Move beyond seat time and test scores.
2. Provide multiple pathways to opportunity.
3. Connect adults and adolescents.
4. Eliminate high-poverty schools.
5. Recognize the primacy of teaching.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
1.Beyond Seat Time & Test Scores
Ensure that all young people graduate from high school prepared for further education.
Align high school curriculum and standards with requirements of the emerging economy and postsecondary education.
Extend literacy instruction through high school.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
2. Provide Multiple Pathways
Offer training for skilled occupations – Career and Technical Education.
Provide accelerated learning options – AP courses, dual-enrollment.
Create blended institutions – Early College High Schools.
Establish Career Academies.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
3. Connect Adults and Adolescents
Guidance counselors are powerful connectors.
High schools need strong connections to communities. Adult mentors. Businesses and work-based learning.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
4. Eliminate High-Poverty Schools
Race matters, income matters more.
No school should have a high concentration of students living in poverty.
Where entire districts are poor, states must provide resources and encourage regionalism.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
5.No Substitute for Strong Teaching
Develop a corps of superbly trained, well-paid, professional teachers.
Identify and train new teachers.
Retain incumbent teachers and expand professional development opportunities.
Break up systematic assigning of vulnerable teachers to vulnerable schools.
Offer pay, housing, tax, and other incentives to attract experienced principals and teachers to vulnerable schools.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Questions
How well do these recommendations match the needs in your community or region?
What can rural community colleges do to put more young people on a path to college?
Does your state have any promising initiatives to reform high school education? How are community colleges involved?
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
For More Information
Sarah Rubin
MDC Inc.
P.O. Box 17268, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-7268
(919) 968-4531
State of the South 2004 can be downloaded or ordered from MDC’s website (www.mdcinc.org)