Effects of climate change on animal health in Africa · IPCC - WGI Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since

Effects of climate change on animal health in Africa

Matthew BaylisVeterinary Clinical ScienceUniversity of Liverpool

SWIMMER workshop, Jan 18, 2007

Examples of climate-disease links (6)

Bluetongue• The components of Vectorial

Capacity are strongly linked to temperature.

• When raised at high but sub-lethal temperatures, innate resistance to viral infection is overcome.

• Disperal is associated with movements on winds

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.16

25 30 31 32 33 pupaeat 33

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ales

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itive

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Rearing temperature /ºC

How climate change will affect diseases

Via direct effects on:• Pathogens• Hosts• Vectors• Dynamics/epidemiology

And via indirect effects on populations, communities, landscape structures etc

Evidence for climate change’s effects on infectious disease: bluetongue

Culicoides biting midge European temperature change: 1980s v 1990s

“The spread of bluetongue and its vectors presents some of the strongest evidence to date that climate change is driving vector-borne diseases into new regions, as warming and disease spread have occurred at the same times in the same places”

(Future Threats, Appendix A)

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])

7IPCC

The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate given to it in 1988 by its parent organisations: the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and

the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP)

Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical

and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its

potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)Climate Change)

“Reporting the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment”, Moscow, 10 July 2008




Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)


CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Years Before Present

Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record

Current(2001)

Projected(2100)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000

(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

CO 2

Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pmv)

Les niveaux attendus du CO2atmosphérique pendant les 100

prochaines années sont supérieurs à ce

qu’ils ont toujours étéau cours des 440 000

dernières années

Expected CO2-concentrations are higher than observed at any time

over last 800 000 years

2007

Projection (2100)

IPCC - WGI

Warming is Unequivocal

Rising atmospheric temperature

Rising sea level

Reductions in NH snow

cover

Attribution

are observed changes

consistent with expected responses to forcings?inconsistent with alternative explanations?

Observations

All forcing

Solar+volcanic

IPCC - WGI

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

This is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely (>66%) to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”. .

16IPCC

Source: IPCC, AR4 (2007)

NB: Reference: 1980-1999 average

Conseil d’Administration du 30 juin 2006

JSC WCRP, 1st April 2008

Climate change simulated by OAGCMs and convergence (IPCC, 2007)

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Brand new in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.

IPCC - WGI

Changes in average produce changes in probability of extremes

Virtually certain > 99%, very likely > 90%, likely > 66%, more likely than not > 50%

Post 1960 21th century

Changements climatiques (5b)

QuickTime™ et udécompresseur TIFF (nosont requis pour visionn Augmentation de température importante dès 2050QuickTime™ et udécompresseur TIFF (nosont requis pour visionn A la fin du 21ème S, selon scénarios (CO2) et modèles :

QuickTime™ etdécompresseur TIFF sont requis pour visio Température +2,4 à 6,6 °C en étéQuickTime™ etdécompresseur TIFF sont requis pour visio Précipitations + 6 à 23 % en hiver

0 à - 50 % en été

Belgique

Temperatuurstijging

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g

ZomerWinter

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+6 °C

+20%

-50 %

+5 °C

2080


Technical Paper: “Climate Change and Water”: www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session28/doc13.pdf






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IPCC

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.



Documents

Effects of climate change on animal health in Africa · IPCC - WGI Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since