Effort for Effective Flood Management under Climate …mucp-mfit.org/wp-content/uploads/D1-S3-Effective-Flood-Management... · Effort for Effective Flood Management under Climate

Effort for Effective Flood

Management under Climate Change

by ICHARM

July 10, 2017 Langkawi, MALAYSIA

Tetsuya IKEDA PhD. Chief Researcher

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO,

Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), Japan

1

All the researchers’ profiles available on the ICHARM’s Websitehttp://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/about/organization_and_staff.html

Self-Introduction

2

http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/about/organization_and_staff.html

1. Introduction of ICHARM

2. International Flood Initiative (IFI)- Strategy 2016 - 2020

3. New policy of Flood Management in Japan under Climate Change

4. Hot Topic- Support for Flood Management for Sri Lanka

Contents of presentation

3

1984-2013, 5yr averagedAnnual Human Loss

1984-2013, 5yr averagedAnnual Economic Damage

Water-related Disaster in Asia-Pacific

Region

4

ICHARM’s Challenge: LocalismDelivering best available knowledge to local practices

Local Practices

Integrated

Flood Analysis

System (IFAS)

Flood risk assessment

under climate change

Supported by MEXT

Master Course

Short Courses FHM, IRBM, Early warning

IFI

WWAP

IFNet/GFAS

Sentinel Asia

Risk Monitoring

Indicators/Standard

WWF, APWF

The

1st Phase

Focus:

Flood-related

Risk

Management

Training Research

Ph.D. Course

Supported

by JICA

UNESCO

CentersIRDR

UNISDR

GP-GARWorking as a Knowledge

Hub on W&D: ADB TA,

UNESCO Pakistan pjt

RRI, BTOP

SOUSEI

IFI Flagship Project

UNSGAB

HELP

In corporation

with GRIPS

5

Data & Statistics

Risk Assessment

Risk Change Identification

Support in Community of Practice

Support in Sound Policy-making

Long-term Targets

6

020406080

100

<0.2 0.2-1.0 >1.0 2

Per

centa

ge

of

yie

ld l

oss

(%

)

Flood depth (m)

Vegetative stage

Flood duration= 1-2 days Flood duration= 3-4 days Flood duration= 5-6 days

Flood duration= 7 days Flood duration >7 days

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Per

cen

tage

of

yie

ld l

oss

(%

)

Flood depth (m)

Vegetative stage

Flood duration= 1-2 days



Flood duration= 7 days

Flood duration >7 days

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Per

centa

ge

of

yie

ld l

oss

(%

)

Flood depth (m)

Reproductive stage






0

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Per

centa

ge

of

yie

ld l

oss

(%

)

Flood depth (m)

Maturity stage






0

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Per

cen

tage

of

yie

ld l

oss

(%

)

Flood depth (m)

Ripening stage






Vegetative Stage

Maturity Stage Ripening Stage

Note: Green line and blue line are overlapped

Reproductive

Stage

Crop Damage Function

Data & Statistics

Risk Assessment




Long-term Targets

7

Data & Statistics

Risk Assessment




Long-term Targets

8

Data & Statistics

Risk Assessment




Long-term Targets

9

Pampanga River

Labangan River

Angat River

Bag Bag River

Labangan River

Data & Statistics

Risk Assessment




Long-term Targets

10

Capacity Development Programs

Short training courses • Hazard maps, IFAS & local preparedness (2004-, JICA)• Tsunami (2008, ISDR), CC adaptation (2010, JICA)• Pakistan Flood Workshops (2011-12 & 2016-17 UNESCO) etc.

Follow-up seminars at trainees local nations (2006- JICA)• Already 9 times, Kuala Lumpur 2007, Guangzhou 2008, Manila 2009,

Hanoi 2010, Bangkok 2012, Dhaka 2013, Kuala Lumpur 2014, Jakarta 2015, Manila 2016

Master Course on Water-related Disaster Management with GRIPS(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) supported by JICA• 10 (‘08), 7 (‘09), 12 (‘10), 12 (‘11), 19 (‘12), 12 (‘13), 12(‘14), 13(‘15),

13 (‘16), 8 (‘17) -> 110 graduates in these 10 years

Ph.D. Course on Disaster Management with GRIPS• 1 (‘13), 1(‘14), 2(‘15), 3 (‘16), 4 (‘17)

11

Contribution to MJIIT by ICHARM

MJIIT (Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology) was founded in 2011 based on promise of both former prime ministers of Japan (Koizumi) and of Malaysia (Mohathir) to provide Japanese-style education for technology.

ICHARM is contributing to send Professors for the lectures on disaster management.

12






13

IFI Strategy 2016-2022

- IFI next step for implementation-

14

18-22 Jan 2005Inauguration of IFI at WCDR in

KobeWMO/UNESCO/

UNISDR/UNU

15

The journey of the IFI initiative

2003

17-22 Jun : 15th UNESO-IHP

IGC Resolution XV-14 on Joint UNESCO/WMO Programme on Floods

2002

2004> 12-14 Jul : Preparatory meeting in

Tsukuba. A joint UNESCO/WMO task team (6 members) produced a concept paper "The Joint UNESCO/WMO Flood Initiative (JUWFI)"

> 20-24 Sep : 16th IHP-IGC approved the concept paper and renamed as "The International Flood Initiative (IFI)".

> 20-29 Oct : 12th WMO CHy discussed the Concept Paper

May: XIVth WMO Congress welcomed the initiative and suggested to establish a joint UNESCO/WMO Committee on Floods. The proposed ICHARM will constitute a global facility for this programme.

15

National level

National level

National level

IFI Partners

Phase-1 Demonstration: Existing Infrastructure

Phase-2 Prototyping: Install in Specific Areas

IFI Partners

Phase-3 Operation: Strengthen & Expanding

IFI PartnersRegional level

Regional level

Regional level

Country A Country B Country C Country ECountry D Country F



Regional Coordination Framework

National Coordination Framework

• Commonality & Priority• Sharing knowledge, best practice• Strengthening capability• Establishing a forum for promoting dialogue

• Locality• Institutional arrangements• Observation & data integration• Natural & Socio-economic• Communities of practice

IFI Implementation Framework 2016 - 2022

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Data & Statistics

Risk AssessmentRisk Change

Identification

• Promoting data collection, storage, sharing, and statistics• Integrating local data, satellite observations and model outputs

• Developing integrated disaster risk assessment

• Identifying locality and commonality

• Monitoring and predicting changes in disaster risk

• Identifying locality and commonality



• Improving disaster literacy• Promoting co-design and co-

implementation among stakeholders

• Analyzing and formulating policies• Visualizing values of preparedness

and investment efficiency

IFI Implementation Framework

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Integrated Flood Management (IFM)

Minimizing social, environmental

and economic risks

Maximizing net benefits from the

use of flood plains

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

SDGs

Sendai Framework

ParisAgreement

database

science & technology

capacity building

financial mechanisms

local, national, regional

initiatives

Expected Stakeholders

Academic Society Government Funding

AgenciesDB

operational supporters

IFIpromoters

Project investors &

ownersｚ

Focus Areas

Hazard Assessment

Vulnerability assessment and capacity building

Exposure Assessment

Finance and investment

Monitoring

Synthesis

Communication and engagement

supporting tools

IFI Strategic Structure

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Formulate Flood Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies Preventive investment (Build Back

Better) Land use planning Contingency planning

Identify disaster risk reduction measures

Reduce Hazard (Dyke, Dam, Diversion

channel, etc.)

Reduce Exposure (Land use, etc.)

Reduce Vulnerability (Building code, Early

warning system, Emergency action, etc.)

Formulate Strategies

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Country A

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

IFI Partners

UNISDR

WMO

UNESCO

ICHARM

UNU

IAHS, IAHR

Country B

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

Research Institute

Main support:

Sub-support:

Local Community Local Community

RBA

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

Research Institute

Local Community

NARBO

CEOS, APRSAF, GEO

Space AgencyExpected Partner Space Agency

Structure Image of Specific Support

20

Planning to promote IFI activities

21

Support Sri Lanka for effective flood management by using IFI National Platform

Continuously help establishing IFI National Platforms in Pakistan, Myanmar, Indonesia, Philippines etc.

Planning to organize the IFI-focused sessions on the regional/ national major events

• World Bosai Forum in Sendai, JAPAN (November 25 – 27, 2017)

* as Follow-up Forum of WCDRR in 2015

• APWS: Asia Pacific Water Summit in Yangon, MYANMAR (December 11 – 12, 2017)

* Regional Process toward WWF8

• WWF8: 8th World Water Forum in Brasilia, BRAZIL (March 18 –23, 2018)

• CECAR8: Civil Engineering Conference in Asian Region in Tokyo, JAPAN (April 16 – 19, 2019)






22

220

169

145

225

156140

230

186

110

157

103

188

251

190

295

156

112

256

131

158

94

177

331

275

244

206

173182

356

193

238

194

254

169

209

275282

237

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Annual number of occurrences of rainfall more than 50mm per hour (out of 1,000 Amedas observation sites)

（times/year）

1976 - 1985174 times per year

2004 - 2013241 times per year

Increase by 40%

Due to the recent climate change, the number of occurrences of heavy rainfall over 50mm per hour are increasing from the 1970s level by 40%.

This number is anticipated to increase by 3 times by the end of 21st Century.

Climate Change may increase the occurrence of heavy rain

23

Recent flood disaster in Japan (September 2015)

16:00 on Sep. 9th

3:00 on Sep. 10th

Rain map observed by radar

By the influence of moist air which seeped from the south into Typhoon, a record-braking heavy rainfall last for two days in the North Japan.

Amount of rainfall

Dyke Break and Inundation at Kinugawa River

Kinugawa River

Dyke Break

24

25

23 Aug17 Aug 21 Aug

Tokachishimizu Town (08/2016 Hokkaido)

Three Typhoons sequentially hit Hokkaido region within a week, causing serious flood disaster in August 2016.

Recent flood disaster in Japan (August 2016)

Preparedness for unprecedented Mega-flood disasters due to climate change

> Structural measures need to be undertaken immediately.But…

> Due to the limited resources (budget, etc.), it seems to difficult to

protect human lives and assets for such flood

Focus on the non-structural measures. > Protect human lives as the TOP priority! > Avoid devastating damages on the socio-economy

even though such huge floods may happen.

“New Phase” has come.Climate change has changed the intensity and frequency of heavy rain, and Unprecedented Mega-flood will inevitably occur.

Target

26MLIT’s new policy “Rebuilding Flood-Conscious Society”

Rebuilding Flood-Conscious Society

Sluice gates

City A

City B

City D

Levee construction

Flooding zone

The anticipated flood risk zone under the risk of destruction of houses

3) Non-structural measures to raise awareness

1) Structural measures to prevent outflow

○ Set up the joint councils by concerned stakeholders (river managers, prefectural governments, municipalities, flood fighting corps etc.) in each region.○ Share the goal and cooperate to mitigate and promote the structural / non-structural

measures.

2) Structural measures for crisis management

27

1) Structural measures to prevent outflow

Piping, Slope Sliding↓

Leakage control(incl. infiltration)

Lack of discharge capacity↓

Levee improvement /Flood diversion channel

Water colliding/scour↓

Erosion/Scour control

•Target to prevent bank erosion or destruction of revetment where the river bed is deeply lowered or water colliding fronts.

•Target to secure flood discharge capacity up to design level where the height of levee is low.

•Target to prevent levee breach where infiltration or piping is anticipated.

a) Enlarging flood discharge capacity by levee improvement, flood diversion channel etc.b) Preventing infiltration and piping c) Preventing erosion and scour hole

-> These measures need to complete within five years from the prioritized areas.

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Implement structural measures to delay levee breach in order to secure time for evacuation within five years where it takes long time for levee improvement levee despite of high risk of flooding.

2) Structural measures for crisis management

粘性土砂質土

粘性土

表土表土

砂質土粘性土

Covering the levee crest with asphalt or other materials in order to prevent rainwater infiltration of rain and to delay levee breach in case of overflow of floodwater.

Covering levee crest Covering levee foot on back slope

Covering the levee foot on the back slope with concrete blocks in order to delay scouring in case of overflow of floodwater.

Levee foot on the back slope is covered with concrete blocks

If levee crest is covered with asphalt or other materials, they will remain for a while in case of overflow of floodwater.

Asphalt, etc.

粘性土

29


Focus on the non-structural measures to raise awareness in order to deepen people’s understanding of flood risk and to promote early evacuation by themselves.

River managers and concerned organizations relatives help raise awareness by distributing flood information through various methods such as i-Phone etc..

3) Non-structural measures to raise awareness

Notifying Risk Information

Ex-ante Action Plan and Training

Information provision which helps people’s

early evacuation

■ Highlight the anticipated flood risk zones under the risk of destruction of houses where urgent evacuation is needed.■ Improve flood hazard maps to enable people’s understanding■ Organize workshops to explain to estate business sectors.

■ Formulate a Timeline focusing on evacuation.■ Conduct the roll-playing training inviting decision makers

(mayor, etc)

Receiving information via i-PhoneDistributing information

30


Improving information systems in order for municipalities and residents to get real-time flood information (such as rainfall data, water level), which urge early evacuation.

Via PC

Via i-Phone

Added browsing functions: River live camera viewing Added indication:

The anticipated inundation zones

The risk level of river water level : Indicated by its color Indication: River water level 31

Examples of Non-structural measures-> Improving and Delivering a real-time information


32

Heavy rain on July 5, 2017 resulted in the record-breaking daily rainfall (336 mm/day) at some observation station in northern Kyusyu Region, and many areas are seriously damaged by dyke breaks and landslides occurred in many areas. So far more than 20 people dead and missing, and evacuation order issued to 270,000 residents.

Still, water-related disaster is threatening






34

Support for Flood Management

for Sri Lanka

• Background Large-scale flood disaster occurred in Sri Lanka in late May

2017, leaving over 300 people dead or missing. The Government of Japan dispatched the Japan Disaster Relief

(JDR) Expert Team to help emergency efforts upon the request of the Government of Sri Lanka, to which PWRI has contributed.

To prepare for the recurring flood disasters, ICHARM and EDITORIA will continuously provide useful information for flood management though newly developed Website on the DIAS, and will conduct capacity development for effective use of information.

• Expected Outcomes This will lead to human damage reduction and efficient

emergency recovery by disseminating effective flood forecasts and early evacuation alerts. 35

36

In-situ rain gauge data (6 numbers)

Collaboration with member organizations of disaster management platform

DisasterManagement

Center

IrrigationDepartment

MeteorologyDepartment

Member organizations of national platform

Satellite precipitation data（GSMaP）

On-line Information provision

on DIAS：In-situ rainfall, satellite rainfall,

calibrated and forecast rainfall, inundation simulations

Implemented by EDITORIA and ICHARM on

DIAS

ALOS © JAXA (2016)

Inundation

analysis by

using RRI in

DIAS

Simulation and forecasting of river

discharge, water level, inundation

extent

Inundation analysis results

Concept of RRI model

Ensemble forecasting rainfall for the next 16 days (max)

Himawari-8 cloud images

Inundation map by satellite data (ALOS-2)

Present situation: Test operation for rainy season Mind-term framework

4 hr latency data (NRT)

Real time data (NOW)

Universities

and others

Calibration

CollaborationInformation provision

Email alert messages

Evacuation advisory by early warning

Government of Sri Lanka(Disaster Management Center)

Damage reduction by pre-disaster measures

Government of Sri Lanka(Irrigation Department)

Sri Lanka disaster management platform

Capacity building for operation

• Promotion of research• Damage reduction

through implementation37

Prototype of Flood Early warning system

for Sri Lanka

• In-situ

Real-time in-situ rainfall• Satellite

GSMaP NOW (0 hour delay from observation) Himawari-8 GSMaP corrected data (using real time in-situ

data)• Prediction

Hourly 3 days rainfall prediction• Flood and Inundation

Calculated hourly flood and inundation

38

• In-situ : Real-time in-situ rainfall(Latest 24 hours, 3days, 30days)

39

• Satellite : GSMaP_NOW data (Available 0 hour delay form observation)

40

• Satellite : Himawari-8(Visible and Band 13)

41

• Satellite : GSMaP NRT corrected data (using real time in-situ rainfall data)

42

• Rainfall Prediction :(Hourly and 3days Prediction)

43

• Flood and Inundation :(Calculated hourly flood and inundation)

44

Sri LankaEstablishment of IFI National Platform in Sri Lanka

45

Thank you very much for your attention

if any questions, please [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Effort for Effective Flood Management under Climate …mucp-mfit.org/wp-content/uploads/D1-S3-Effective-Flood-Management... · Effort for Effective Flood Management under Climate