EGSA 2006 Annual Spring Convention March 20, 2006 – Sarasota, FL

EGSA 2006 Annual Spring ConventionMarch 20, 2006 – Sarasota, FL

Demand for Reliable Power Goes GlobalStan Pukash

Vice President, International Sales

ASCO Power Technologies

22006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global Presentation Outline

• Worldwide Consumption of Electricity Increasing

• Applications Driving the Demand for Reliability

• Why Power Reliability is an Issue• Dramatic Increase in Genset Installations• Other Drivers and Summary


Worldwide Consumption of Electricity Increasing

• Globally there is a “steady relationship between electric power consumption and economic development.” (EPRI)

• The Energy Information Administration of the DOE estimates world consumption in 2003 (most recent data available) at 14,768 Billion Kilowatthours (or 14,768 Tetrawatthours).

• For 2003 U.S. consumption estimated at 3,656 TWH, or about 25% of the total.

• Electrification of the energy supply is now about 40% for the *OECD nations, and this will grow to 50 to 60% or more of total energy by 2050. (EPRI)

Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

*OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation


OECD Member Countries

• Australia• Austria• Belgium• Canada• Czech Republic• Denmark• Finland• France• Germany• Greece

• Norway• Poland• Portugal• Slovak Republic• Spain• Sweden• Switzerland• Turkey• United Kingdom• United States

• Hungry• Iceland• Ireland• Italy• Japan• South Korea• Luxembourg• Mexico• Netherlands• New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation


Worldwide Electricity Consumption (billions of kWHs)

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Bill

ion

s k

WH

Annual % Increase in Electricity Consumption

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

NA CA / SA EMEA Far East SE Asia /Aus

Cent. Asia

Bill

ion

s kW

H

2002 2003

Worldwide Electricity ConsumptionBy Region



% Increase In Electricity Consumption By Region From 2002 To 2003

4.90%

0.00%0.78%

2.17%

6.34%

8.52%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%


Cent. Asia



Worldwide Electricity ConsumptionBy Region For 2003 (And % Increase from 2002)


0.78%

4.90%

2.17%

6.34%

0.00%

8.52%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


Cent. Asia

Bil

lio

ns

kWH

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%


Latin America Needs 90,000 MW Of New Generating Capacity By 2012

• Mexico must be able to generate twice as much electricity in seven years.

• 29,000 MW capacity in 2005 must increase to 58,000 MW.• Strong political opposition to opening Mexico’s energy

sector to private investment.

• The Brazilian Government says the capacity in their country must increase by more than 60% over the next eight years.

• 59,300 MW capacity in 2005 must increase to 96,000 MW.• The outlook is positive as the government’s new energy

sector model appears to be working.• Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile all will

require big investments in their energy supplies.

Source: Platts


Will China Have Enough Power ?• China’s installed capacity in 2004 is estimated at 237,000 MW• Rapid Economic Growth is Impacting the Supply / Demand

Situation.– 29,800 MW capacity shortfalls in 2004

• East China Grid: 20,780 MW• North Grid: 7,470 MW• Central Grid: 1,550 MW

• Consumption is growing.– China’s economic growth is expected to be the highest in the

world between now and 2010.– 1,671 Billion KWH in 2003 will grow by 68% to 2,800 TWH by 2010

• Capacity is projected to be 320,000 MW by 2010.– This will be a challenge for existing, inefficient state-owned

utilities.• The Three Gorges Dam project will add 19,000 MW by 2008.

Source: DOE/EIA and Platts


China’s Three Gorges DamThe Largest Construction Project Ever

• Dam is 7,600 ft. across and 600 ft. high.

• The world’s largest reservoir will be created.

• The reservoir will be 385 miles long and have as much water as Lake Superior.

• Will open Chongqing, a city of more than 30 million people, to ocean-going ships via the world’s highest locks.

Data: Washington Post





• $25 Billion project will produce 19 Billion Watts (19 Gigawatts).• Begun in 1994, 40,000 workers, 24X7 will complete it in 2008.• 19 Gigawatts is 10% of China’s power needs (combined consumption of

Boston, New York and Washington, DC).• 19 Gigawatts is roughly equivalent to 9,500 2-Megawatt Diesel Gensets.• At $25 Billion, that’s $2.63 Million per 2 MW Genset (but powering the

gensets on Yangtze river water would be very difficult).







The Wave of Global Industrialization is Driving the Demand for Reliable Power

Global demand for reliable power is driven by the following applications:

– “Low Cost Country” Manufacturing– Outsourcing Facilities– Data Centers– Telecommunications– Financial Institutions– Airports– Transit Systems– Call Centers– Government Agencies– Retail Complexes– “Prestige Properties”

Even 99.9% uptime can be devastating to manufacturers, data handlers and other high tech operations.


The Global Demand For Reliable Power is Growing

• The availability of data storage and other high-tech equipment has surpassed that of the back-up power systems needed to support them.

• Data Centers require high-availability, high-quality power, and lots of it !

• A typical 100,000 square foot server farm needs from 6 to 8 MW of nearly constant power.

• Airports and transit systems require reliable power to operate traffic control and dispatching and safety devices.

Source: Capital E and Energy User News


New Global Facilities Require Reliable Power

• Motors, conveyor belts, etc.

• Voltage fluctuations barley noticeable.

• Only a complete outage would cause an industrial process to halt.

• Process can resume as soon as power is restored.

• Computer servers, semiconductor manufacturing, digital equipment.

• Servers won’t tolerate > 8 msec of outage; semiconductor mfg won’t tolerate 20% voltage dips > 67 msec.

• Voltage sags are as perilous as complete outages

• Takes 16 hours on average for IDCs to resume normal operations; Semiconductor mfg can take 32 hours to resume (plus damaged work will have to be scrapped).

The Industrial Age The Digital Age

Source: Energy User News


Record Number of High-Rises are Under Construction

• More than 140 buildings under construction worldwide that are 200 meters (656 feet) or taller.

• Of these, 25 will be over 300 meters (984 feet) and 7 will be over 400 meters (1,312 feet) tall.

• There are also more than 130 proposed new skyscrapers that are 200 meters or higher.

• Of these, 43 are to be 300 meters or taller.

• All of these will demand an extraordinary amount of electrical energy for lighting, HVAC, elevators, and business equipment and computers.

• All of these will demand reliable power, including standby gensets and switching equipment.

Source: ENR 10/31/05


World’s Tallest Building: Taipei 101• Located in Taiwan, it was originally called

the Taipei Financial Center.• Built in 1999-2004, opened on December 31,

2004.• 101 stories above ground and 5

underground.• 1,667 feet from ground to structural top.• 1,470 feet from ground to roof (Sears Tower

is 1,454 feet ground-to-roof).• Two double-deck elevators are the world’s

fastest at 37.5 mph; visitors are brought from main floor to the observatory on the 89th floor in under 39 seconds.

• Eight 4.16 kV, 2000 kW diesel gensets.• More than 40 MV & LV ATSs.

Source: Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Taipei_101_at_night.jpg


World’s Tallest Buildings Under ConstructionRank Name Location Height

(Feet)Year Complete

1 Burj Dubai Dubai, U.A.E. 2,625+ 2008

2 Busan Lotte Tower Busan, South Korea 1,620 2009

3 Shanghai World Financial Center Shanghai, China 1,614 2007

4 Abraj Al Bait Hotel Tower Mekkah, Saudi Arabia 1,591 N/A

5 International Commerce Center Hong Kong, China 1,588 2009

6 Nanjing Greenland Financial Center Nanjing, China 1,496 2008

7 Dubai Towers Doha Doha, Qatar 1,450 2007

8 Trump International Hotel Chicago 1,362 2008

9 23 Marina Dubai, U.A.E. 1,247 2009

10 Bank of America Tower New York City 1,201 2008

11 Wanhao Financial Center Chongqing, China 1,171 2006

12 Almas Tower Dubai, U.A.E. 1,148 2007

13 Federation Complex Tower A Moscow, C.I.S. 1,132 2010

14 Palacio de la Bahia Panama City, Panama 1,102 2009

15 Rose Tower Dubai, U.A.E. 1,093 2006

Data: Council on Tall Buildings & Urban Habitat

(For comparison, Sears Tower is 1,736 feet and Empire State Building is 1,472 feet)


Burj DubaiArabic for “Tower of Dubai”

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a6/DOWNTOWN.jpg


• Currently under construction in Dubai, United Arab Emirates; topout estimated for 2008.

• Structural height estimated at 2,625 feet (actual height is closely guarded secret); 167 floors.– For comparison, Sears Tower is

1,736 feet and Empire State Building is 1,472 feet.

• Four 11kV, 2MW engine-generators for emergency power.

• More gensets will be added as tenants occupy building.

• More than 100 transfer switches.

Burj Dubai: World’s Tallest Building


Shanghai World Financial Center• Located in the booming area of

Pudong, near the Jin Mao Tower in Shanghai, China.

• Construction scheduled to be completed in 2007.

• 101 stories.

• 1,614 feet.

• Designed for 300 hotel rooms on the upper floors and an observation area at the top.

• Initially four 10 kV, 2000 kW diesel gensets with four additional for planned future expansion of emergency power system.







Lack Of Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Costs

• Loss of Productivity and Customer Service• Inability to run production machinery and processes• Inability to support customer service• Inability to maintain comfortable work environment for employees

• Loss of Computer Data• Financial and customer records• Engineering and research information• Business and employee records

• Loss of Communications• Sales opportunities lost• Customer relations and goodwill damaged

• Loss of Security Systems• Fire alarms• Personnel safety • Theft


Providing Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Challenges

• Existing power plant capacities must expand at a rate that will support the accelerating demand.

• Electrical grids and distribution infrastructure must also expand accordingly: this is often a bigger challenge than building new power plants.

• Hydroelectric generation depends upon normal rainfall; droughts in South America in 2003 demonstrated the impact on utilities’ ability to support their grids: planned service interruptions.

• Political action can lead to power shortages and interruptions: examples are Argentina’s decision to curtail gas supplies to Bolivia in January 2006 and Russia’s similar action against Ukraine.

• “Theft” of power in developing economies impacts utilities’ ability to raise the cash needed for capital expansion.







Emergency Systems IncreaseElectrical Power Reliability

On-site Power•Emergency Outages•Power Quality•Peak Demand Reduction•Time-Of-Day Rate Usage Reduction•Heat Recovery

Normal Power

Critical Loads

ATS


Providing Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Benefits

• Increased uptime through avoidance of outages

• More efficient business operations

• Customer sales and services

• Security and safety systems

• Improved power quality for sensitive electrical loads

• Peak demand charge reduction


10,065Units

10,795Units

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05Survey Year (June-May)

1.01

- 30

MW

Un

its

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

To

tal O

utp

ut

(GW

)

Units GW

Survey of Reciprocating Genset Orders1.01–30 MW Diesel, Dual-Fuel and Gas Engines

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005


• Global unit volume of 10,065 in 05 Survey is 41% higher than the 7137 in the 04 Survey.

• Gensets in range of 1.01- 2.0 MW increased from 5930 units in 04 Survey to 8662 units in 05, or more than 46%.

• Gas turbine units were flat for same period: 698 in 04 Survey compared to 697 in 05; however aggregated MW output -10%.

7137Units

10,065Units

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05Survey Year (June-May)

1.01

- 30

MW

Un

its

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

To

tal O

utp

ut

(GW

)

Units GW

Dramatic Increase in Piston Genset Orders for 04 to 05 Survey Years

1.01 to 30 MW

•Units increased by 41% •Aggregate MW output increased by 29%



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

NA CA/SA EMEA Far East SEAsia/Aus

Cent.Asia

1.0

1-2

MW

Un

its

04

05


Survey of Reciprocating Genset Orders1.01– 2 MW Diesel, Dual-Fuel and Gas Engines

+77%

+113%

+12%

+112%

+10% +39%

+46%

(Survey Year: June – May)


Survey Year 2005 Comparison of Unit Sales of Gensets 0.5-1.0 MW vs. 1.01-2.0 MW

2923

1126

638

1235

2733

3784

502

874870

1800

2478

2138

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

NA CA/SA EMEA Far East SEAsia/Aus

Cent. Asia

Su

rvey

Yea

r 20

05 U

nit

s O

rder

ed

0.5-1.0 MW

1.01-2 MW0.5-1.0 MW Total: 12,439 Units1.01-2.0 MW Total: 8,662 Units



0.5-1.0 MW

Peaking

3%Standby

73%

Prime

24%

1.01-2.0 MW

Peaking

3%Standby

71%

Prime

26%

Survey Year 2005 Comparison of:

Standby / Peaking / Prime Gensets 0.5-1.0 MW vs. 1.01-2.0 MW


Total Quantity: 12,439 Total Quantity: 8,662







Evolution of Global Standards

Yesterday• Isolated National Markets• Little Offshore Competition• Individual National Stds

Today• Distinct Nat’l & Int’l Mkts• Important Offshore Comp• National & Int’l Stds

Tomorrow• Global Markets• Multinational Comp• Global Standards


International Electrotechnical Commission

• The Key International Standards Development Organization for Electrical Technologies– Founded in 1906, currently has 62 member countries.

• Open only to national standards organizations such as USNC/ANSI and Standards Council of Canada.

– Publishes standards to promote quality, safety, and global acceptance and environmental compatibility of materials, products and systems.

• Over 5000 IEC Standards are in use in more than 100 countries.– IEC Standards, such as 60947-6-1 on Transfer Switching

Equipment, provide one of the benchmarks for the Conformity Assessment Industry.

– Collaborates with ISO (International Organization for Standardization); ISO administers standards not covered by IEC.


• Objective: Achieving Global Acceptance– One Standard One Test One Acceptance

• US Participates via USNC/IEC– Conduit to the global standards-setting community.

– Participates in development of IEC Standards to facilitate international trade for benefit of US Industry.

– Advocates US interests in standards, conformity assessment, and related matters.

– Is an integrated committee of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI).

International Electrotechnical Commission (cont’d)

Source: USNC/IEC


Documents

EGSA 2006 Annual Spring Convention March 20, 2006 – Sarasota, FL