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Eighth International Conferenceon Probabilistic Graphical Models
Lugano, Switzerland
6-9 September 2016
PGM 2016
Preface
The biennial International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)brings together researchers interested in all aspects of graphical models forprobabilistic reasoning, decision making, and learning. Previous PGM meetingswere held in Cuenca (2002), Leiden (2004), Prague (2006), Hirtshals (2008), Hel-sinki (2010), Granada (2012) and Utrecht (2014).
Theeighth editionwill takeplace in Lugano (Switzerland) onSeptember6-9, 2016.For this edition we changed the name of the conference from European Work-shop to International Conference. This is intended to re�ect the fact that PGMdraws interest also from outside Europe, and that it has been publishing peer-reviewed proceedings since its �rst edition.
The proceedings of this edition are published for the �rst time within the seriesJMLR: Workshop and Conference Proceedings. This is by itself an acknowledg-ment of the scienti�c quality of the papers at PGM.
For the eighth edition of PGM, there were 69 submissions; this was a recordfor the conference. We assigned each paper to three members of the programcommittee, adopting a double-blind reviewing approach. We accepted 46 papers(about 66%of the submissions). Wewould like to thank the60programcommitteemembers for their outstanding job during the reviewing process.
In addition to the presentations of the accepted papers, we are honored to havethree invited speakers:
Guido Consonni (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)Fabio G. Cozman (Universidade de São Paulo)Adnan Darwiche (UCLA).
Two tutorials further enrich the program. The �rst is by Cassio P. de Campos(Queen’s University Belfast) and Johan Kwisthout (Radboud University). The sec-ond is by Nicola Di Mauro and Antonio Vergari (Università degli Studi di Bari).
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Organizational Support
Wegratefully acknowledgeorganizational support from IDSIA (IstitutoDalleMolledi Studi sull’Intelligenza Arti�ciale), USI (Università della Svizzera Italiana), andSUPSI (Scuola Universitaria Professionale della Svizzera Italiana).
Financial Support
Wegratefully acknowledge�nancial support from theArti�cial Intelligence Jour-nal (Elsevier/IJCAI), from the conference sponsorship program of the EuropeanCoordinating Committee for Arti�cial Intelligence (ECCAI), from the Science andTechnology (S+T) center of technology of the Swiss Department of Defense (Ar-masuisse), from the Bayesia S.A.S. software development company, and from theHUGIN Expert A/S company.
Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani, and Cassio P. de Campos
PGM 2016 co-chairs
Lugano, September 2016
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PGM 2016
Venues
Università della Svizzera Italiana (conference site, usi.ch)Address: Via Buf� 13, Lugano. The conference will be held in the auditorium, onthe third �oor of the main building.
Bistrot Vecchio Torchio (restaurant, bistrot-vecchiotorchio.ch)Address: Via Taddei 4c, Lugano. Welcome evening reception on Tuesday and con-ference lunches on Tuesday and Thursday.
San Salvatore (funicular railway + restaurant, montesansalvatore.ch)Address: Via delle Scuole 7, Paradiso. Conference banquet dinner on Wednes-day. Meeting there @7pm (or @6.30pm at the conference place).
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Internet Access
Eduroam access is available in the university. Alternatively you can use the uni-versity network (SSID:USIwireless), using guest as login and guest as password.
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PGM 2016
Program Overview
Tuesday (Sep 6, day 1)
08:00–08:50 Registration
08:50–09:00 Opening
09:00–10:20 Causality I (4 talks)
10:20–10:40 Coffee break
10:40–11:20 Causality II (2 talks)
11:20–11:30 Break
11:30–12:30 Tutorial by Di Mauro and Vergari
12:30–14:00 Conference lunch @ Vecchio Torchio
14:00–15:00 Missing data (3 talks)
15:00–15:20 Coffee break
15:20–16:20 Sensitivity analysis (3 talks)
16:20–16:35 Break
16:35–17:55 Representation (4 talks)
18:30–20:00 Welcome reception @ Vecchio Torchio
Wednesday (Sep 7, day 2)
09:00–10:20 Classi�cation (4 talks)
10:20–10:40 Coffee break
10:40–11:20 Relational models (2 talks)
11:20–11:30 Break
11:30–12:30 Invited talk by Darwiche
12:30–14:00 Lunch
14:00–15:00 Invited talk by Consonni
15:00–15:20 Coffee break
15:20–16:20 Continuous variables (3 talks)
16:20–16:35 Break
16:35–17:35 Estimation (3 talks)
17:35–17:50 Break
17:50–18:20 General meeting
19:00–23:00 Conference dinner @ San Salvatore
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Thursday (Sep 8, day 3)
09:00–10:20 Structural learning (4 talks)
10:20–10:40 Coffee break
10:40–11:20 Dynamic models I (2 talks)
11:20–11:30 Break
11:30–12:30 Invited talk by Cozman
12:30–14:00 Conference lunch @ Vecchio Torchio
14:00–15:00 Dynamic models II (3 talks)
15:00–15:15 Coffee break
15:15–16:15 Tutorial by de Campos and Kwisthout
16:15–16:30 Break
16:30–17:30 Complexity (3 talks)
17:30–18:30 Round table about PGMs, software, and apps.
Friday (Sep 9, day 4)
09:00–10:20 Inference (4 talks)
10:20–10:40 Coffee break
10:40–11:20 Sum–Product Nets (2 talks)
11:20–11:30 Break
11:30–12:30 Invited talk by Svensson (OR Days)
12:30–12:40 Closing
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PGM 2016
Scienti�c Program
Tuesday morning (day 1, Sep 6)
Registration starting from 08:00
Causality I Chair: Ross Schachter
09:00 - 09:20 A differential approach to causality in staged trees.Christiane Görgen and Jim Q. Smith.
09:20 - 09:40 Estimating causal effects with ancestral graph Markov models.Daniel Malinsky and Peter Spirtes.
09:40 - 10:00 Causal discovery from subsampled time series data by constraintoptimization. Antti Hyttinen, Sergey Plis, Matti Järvisalo, FrederickEberhardt, and David Danks.
10:00 - 10:20 A hybrid causal search algorithm for latent variable models.Juan Miguel Ogarrio, Peter Spirtes, and Joe Ramsey.
Coffee break (20 mins)
Causality II Chair: Pekka Parviainen
10:40 - 11:00 Computing lower and upper bounds on the probability of causalstatements. Elena Sokolova, Martine Hoogman, Perry Groot, TomClaassen, and Tom Heskes.
11:00 - 11:20 Learning acyclic directedmixed graphs fromobservations and inter-ventions. Jose Peña.
Break (10 mins)
Tutorial Chair: Giorgio Corani
11:30 - 12:30 Learning sum-product networks. Nicola Di Mauro andAntonio Vergari.
Conference lunch @ Vecchio Torchio (90 mins)
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Tuesday afternoon
Missing Data Chair: Marco Scutari
14:00 - 14:20 Bayesian matrix factorization with non-random missing datausing informative Gaussian process priors and soft evidences.Bence Bolgár and Péter Antal.
14:20 - 14:40 Student skill models in adaptive testing. Martin Plajner and Ji�í Vom-lel.
14:40 - 15:00 Estimating mutual information in under-reported variables.Konstantinos Sechidis, Matthew Sperrin, Emily Petherick, andGavin Brown.
Coffee break (20 mins)
Sensitivity Analysis Chair: Alessandro Antonucci
15:20 - 15:40 Evidence evaluation: a study of likelihoods and independence.Silja Renooij.
15:40 - 16:00 Reintroducing credal networks under epistemic irrelevance.Jasper De Bock.
16:00 - 16:20 Bayesian networks: a combined tuning heuristic. Janneke Bolt.
Break (15 mins)
Representation Chair: Ji�í Vomlel
16:35 - 16:55 Compressing Bayes net CPTs with persistent leaky causes.Yang Xiang and Qian Jiang.
16:55 - 17:15 Identifying the irreducible disjoint factors of a multivariate probabil-ity distribution. Maxime Gasse and Alex Aussem.
17:15 - 17:35 Decisions and dependence in in�uence diagrams. Ross Shachter.17:35 - 17:55 Joint Bayesian modelling of internal dependencies and revant mul-
timorbidities of a heterogeneous disease. Péter Marx, AndrásMillinghoffer, Gabriella Juhász and Péter Antal.
Welcome reception @ Vecchio Torchio (starting from 18.30)
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PGM 2016
Wednesday morning (day 2, Sep 7)
Classi�cation Chair: Giorgio Corani
09:00 - 09:20 Bayesian torrent classi�cation by �le name and size only.Eugene Dementiev and Norman Fenton.
09:20 - 09:40 Multilabel classi�cation with cutset networks. Nicola Di Mauro, An-tonio Vergari, and Floriana Esposito.
09:40 - 10:00 On construction of hybrid logistic regression-naïve Bayes modelfor classi�cation. Yi Tan, Prakash Shenoy, Moses Chan, and PaulRomberg.
10:00 - 10:20 Learning tractable multidimensional Bayesian network classi�ers.Marco Benjumeda, Concha Bielza, and Pedro Larrañaga.
Coffee break (20 mins)
Relational Models Chair: Johan Kwisthout
10:40 - 11:00 An exact approach to learning probabilistic relational model.Nourhene Ettouzi, Philippe Leray, and Montassar Ben Messaoud.
11:00 - 11:20 The effect of combination functions on the complexity of relationalBayesian networks. Denis Mauá and Fabio Cozman.
Break (10 mins)
Invited Talk Chair: Cassio P. de Campos
11:30 - 12:30 Learning arithmetic circuits with background knowledge.Adnan Darwiche.
Lunch break (90 mins)
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Wednesday afternoon
Invited Talk Chair: Giorgio Corani
14:00 - 15:00 Bayesian selection of essential graphical models. Guido Consonni.
Coffee break (20 mins)
Continuous variables Chair: Antonio Salmerón
15:20 - 15:40 Hybrid copula Bayesian networks. Kiran Karra and Lamine Milli.15:40 - 16:00 Making large Cox’s proportional hazard models tractable in Bayes-
ian networks. Jidapa Kraisangka and Marek Druzdzel.16:00 - 16:20 A progressive explanation of inference in ‘hybrid’ Bayesian networks
for supporting clinical decision making. Evangelia Kyrimi andWilliamMarsh.
Break (15 mins)
Estimation Chair: Pedro Larrañaga
16:35 - 16:55 Conditional probability estimation. Marco Cattaneo.16:55 - 17:15 A genetic algorithm for learning parameters in Bayesian networks
using expectation maximization. Priya Krishnan Sundararajan andOle Mengshoel.
17:15 - 17:35 Statistical matching of discrete data by Bayesian networks.Eva Endres and Thomas Augustin.
Break (15 mins)
PGM General meeting (17:50 – 18:20)
Banquet dinner @ San Salvatore (18.30 @USI or 19.00pm @Funicolar)
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PGM 2016
Thursday morning (day 3, Sep 8)
Structural Learning Chair: Cassio P. de Campos
09:00 - 09:20 An empirical-Bayes score for discrete Bayesian networks.Marco Scutari.
09:20 - 09:40 The chordal graph polytope for learning decomposable models.Milan Studen� and James Cussens.
09:40 - 10:00 On pruning with the MDL score. Eunice Yuh-Jie Chen, Arthur Choi,and Adnan Darwiche.
10:00 - 10:20 Bayesian networks for variable groups. Pekka Parviainen andSamuel Kaski.
Coffee break (20 mins)
DynamicModels I Chair: Marek J. Druzdzel
10:40 - 11:00 Regression methods applied to �ight variables for situa-tional awarenes estimation using dynamic Bayesian networks.Carlos Morales and Serafín Moral.
11:00 - 11:20 Learning complex uncertain states changes via asymmetric hiddenMarkov models: an industrial case. Marcos Bueno, Arjen Hommer-som, Peter Lucas, Sicco Verwer, and Alexis Linard.
Break (10 mins)
Invited Talk Chair: Alessandro Antonucci
11:30 - 12:30 The �nite model theory of Bayesian networks: an invitation.Fabio Cozman.
Conference lunch @ Vecchio Torchio (90 mins)
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Thursday afternoon
DynamicModels II Chair: Concha Bielza
14:00 - 14:20 On stacking probabilistic temporal models with bidirectional infor-mation �ow. ThomasGeier,Michael Glodek, Georg Layher, HeikoNeu-mann, Susanne Biundo, and Günther Palm.
14:20 - 14:40 Learning parameters of hybrid time Bayesian networks. Manxia Liu,Arjen Hommersom, Maarten van der Heijden, and Peter Lucas.
14:40 - 15:00 Regime aware learning. Marcus Bendtsen.
Break (15 mins)
Tutorial (joint event with OR days) Chair: Alessandro Antonucci
15:15 - 16:15 Computational complexity of Bayesian networks andMarkov random�elds. Cassio P. de Campos and Johan Kwisthout.
Break (15 mins)
Complexity Chair: Milan Studen�
16:30 - 16:50 Probabilistic graphical models speci�ed by probabilistic logic pro-grams: semantics and complexity. Fabio Cozman and Denis Mauá.
16:50 - 17:10 Relevant path separation: a faster method for testing indepen-dencies in Bayesian networks. Cory Butz, André dos Santos, andJhonatan Oliveira.
17:10 - 17:30 The parameterized complexity of approximate inference in Bayesiannetworks. Johan Kwisthout.
Round Table Chair: Alessandro Antonucci
17:30 - 18:30 Probabilistic graphical models, software tools, and their ap-plications to real-world problems. Marek Druzdzel (BayesFu-sion), Lionel Jouffe (BayesiaLab), Philippe Luginbühl (Armasuisse),Anders Madsen (Hugin), and Thorsten Ottosen (Dezide).
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PGM 2016
Friday morning (day 4, Sep 9)
Inference Chair: Jose Peña
09:00 - 09:20 On Bayesian network inference with simple propagation. Cory Butz,Jhonatan Oliveira, André dos Santos, and Anders Madsen.
09:20 - 09:40 d-VMP: distributed variational message passing. Andrés Masegosa,Ana Martínez, Helge Langseth, Thomas Nielsen, Antonio Salmerón,Darío Ramos-López, and Anders Madsen.
09:40 - 10:00 Exact inference on conditional linear�-Gaussian Bayesian networks.Ivar Simonsson and Petter Mostad.
10:00 - 10:20 Scalable MAP inference in Bayesian networks based on a Map-Reduce approach. Darío Ramos-López, Antonio Salmerón, RafaelRumí, Ana Martínez, Thomas Nielsen, Andrés Masegosa, HelgeLangseth, and Anders Madsen.
Coffee break (20 mins)
Sum-Product Networks Chair: Nicola Di Mauro
10:40 - 11:00 Online algorithms for sum-product networks with continuous vari-ables. Priyank Jaini, Abdullah Rashwan, Han Zhao, Yue Liu, ErshadBanijamali, Zhitang Chen, and Pascal Poupart.
11:00 - 11:20 Dynamic sum product networks for tractable inference on sequencedata. Mazen Melibari, Pascal Poupart, Prashant Doshi, and GeorgeTrimponias.
Break (10 mins)
Invited Talk (joint event with OR days) Chair: Luca M. Gambardella
11:30 - 12:30 Algorithms with provable guarantees for clustering problems.Ola Svensson.
Closing (10 mins)
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Lugano, 6-9 September 2010
Participants
LoredanaAddimando (SUPSI, Switzerland), TameemAdel (University of Amsterdam, Nether-lands), Alessandro Antonucci (IDSIA, Switzerland), Laura Azzimonti (IDSIA, Switzerland),Marcus Bendtsen (Linköping University, Sweden), Marco Benjumeda (Technical Universityof Madrid, Spain), Concha Bielza (Technical University of Madrid, Spain), Bence Bolgár (Bu-dapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary), Janneke Bolt (Utrecht Univer-sity, Netherlands), Marcos Bueno (Radboud University, Netherlands), Cory Butz (Univer-sity of Regina, Canada), Marco Cattaneo (University of Hull, UK), Arthur Choi (UCLA, US),GuidoConsonni (Università Cattolica del SacroCuore, Italy), Giorgio Corani (IDSIA, Switzer-land), Irene Córdoba Sánchez (Technical University of Madrid, Spain), Fabio Cozman (Uni-versidade de São Paulo, Brazil), Adnan Darwiche (UCLA, US), Jasper De Bock (Ghent Uni-versity, Belgium), Cassio P. de Campos (Queen’s University Belfast, UK), Mariela De Lu-cas Alvarez (Heriot Watt University, UK), Eliezer de Souza da Silva (The Norwegian Uni-versity of Science and Technology, Norway), Eugene Dementiev (Queen Mary University ofLondon, UK), Nicola Di Mauro (Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy), Marek Druzdzel (Uni-versity of Pittsburgh, US), Eva Endres (LMU Munich, Germany), Maxime Gasse (Univer-sité Lyon 1, France) Christiane Görgen (University of Warwick, UK), David Huber (IDSIA,Switzerland), Antti Hyttinen (University of Helsinki, Finland), Lionel Jouffe (Bayesia, France),Kiran Karra (Virginia Tech, US), Marcin Kozniewski (University of Pittsburgh, US), JohanKwisthout (Radboud University, Netherlands), Evangelia Kyrimi (Queen Mary University ofLondon, UK), Helge Langseth (The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Nor-way), Pedro Larrañaga (Technical University of Madrid, Spain), Georg Layher (Ulm Univer-sity, Germany), Philippe Leray (University of Nantes, France), Manxia Liu (Radboud Uni-versity, Netherlands), Peter Lucas (Radboud University, Netherlands), Philippe Luginbühl(Armasuisse, Switzerland), Anders Madsen (Hugin Expert A/S, Denmark), Daniel Malinsky(CMU, US), AnaM.Martinez (AalborgUniversity, Denmark) PeterMarx (Budapest Universityof Technology and Economics, Hungary), Denis Mauá (Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil),OleMengshoel (CMU, US), Do Le (Paul)Minh (California State University, US), CristinaMonni(Università della Svizzera Italiana, Switzerland), Carlos Morales (Universidad de Granada,Spain), Thomas Dyhre Nielsen (Aalborg University, Denmark), Juan Miguel Ogarrio (CMU,US), Thorsten Ottosen (Dezide Aps, Denmark), Pekka Parviainen (Aalto University, Finland),Stefano Pascolutti (Unicredit R&D, Italy), JoseM. Peña (Linköping University, Sweden), Mar-tin Plajner (Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic), Pascal Poupart (University of Wa-terloo, Canada), Silja Renooij (Utrecht University, Netherlands), Jakob Runge (Imperial Col-lege London, UK), Antonio Salmerón (University of Almeria, Spain), Mauro Scanagatta (ID-SIA, Switzerland), Marco Scutari (University of Oxford, UK), Konstantinos Sechidis (Univer-sity of Manchester, UK), Ross Shachter (Stanford MS&E, US), Ivar Simonsson (ChalmersUniversity of Technology, Sweden), Linda Smail (Zayed University, United Arab Emirates),Elena Sokolova (Radboud University, Netherlands), Milan Studen� (Czech Academy of Sci-ences, Czech Republic), Yi Tan (University of Kansas, US), Nguyen Thi Kim Hue (University ofPadova, Italy), Jakub Truszkowski (EMBL-EBI & University of Cambridge, UK), Antonio Ver-gari (Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy), Ji�í Vomlel (Czech Academy of Sciences, CzechRepublic), Yang Xiang (University of Guelph, Canada), Marco Zaffalon (IDSIA, Switzerland).
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