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Election Risk, Hanging Curve Balls, And Other Washington Stories
September 10, 2008
Charles A. Gabriel, Jr.Managing Director
www.capalphadc.com
Capital Alpha Partners LLC offers predictive insight for institutional investors, helping them to:
•Foresee trends and developments from Washington•Gauge true levels of political or regulatory risk•Understand timing and process•Know when to immunize or hedge positions for unsettling outcomes•Exploit gaps in market understanding
We draw upon personal contacts, consulting relationships, and decades of experience to develop informed views of future policy directions and their practical, real-world consequences.
We create value for our clients by putting information into context, knowledge into vision, and specifics into forecasts.
We aim to tell investors where the news is going before the news arrives -- and often, after the onset of market reaction, when a resulting gap between perception and reality might close.
We provide service to buy-side analysts, portfolio managers and strategists on several levels, ranging from access to written reports and comments to in-depth personal communications and Washington meetings.
Our unique industry-level focus complements fundamental research. We currently offer core coverage in energy and environment, financial services, healthcare, pharma, taxation, manufacturing, budget/defense, and election-risk/overall strategy. (We provide additional topical coverage on an as-needed basis and can draw on a wide range of sources to meet client requirements.)
We believe that finding the right answer starts with asking the right question. Asking the right question starts with intelligence. We help investors put Washington intelligence to work.
"Superior Washington Intelligence For Investors"
2000
2008
2004
2008?
Nationally: Clinton v. Obama
Source: RealClearPolitics.com; Capital Alpha Partners, LLC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1/18 3/4 4/18 6/2 7/17 8/31 10/15 11/29 1/13 2/27 4/12
Clinton Obama Edwards
Winner Take All: Clinton 1603 vs. Obama 1242
Source: CNN; Capital Alpha Partners, LLC
McCain Leads By Three
Source: RealClearPolitics.com; Capital Alpha Partners, LLC
30
35
40
45
50
55
1/18 3/4 4/18 6/2 7/17 8/31 10/15 11/29 1/13 2/27 4/12 5/27 7/11 8/25
McCain Obama
Presidential Choice IndicatorEVs Solid Lean TotalObama 179 107 286McCain 142 110 252
PCI ME MI MN NH OR PA WI1-Sep 96 96 100 33 100 96 100
15-Aug 96 96 100 68 100 96 1001-Aug 96 76 100 68 100 96 100
15-Jul 96 76 100 53 100 96 100
LAST 3
1-Sep 30 30 30 15 30 30 3015-Aug 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
1-Aug 30 30 30 30 30 30 3015-Jul 30 30 30 15 30 30 30
LAST 101-Sep 40 40 40 0 40 40 40
15-Aug 40 40 40 20 40 40 401-Aug 40 20 40 20 40 40 4015-Jul 40 20 40 20 40 40 40
EVs 4 17 10 4 7 21 10
DEM-IN-2004/BLUE STATES
PCI CO FL GA IA IN MO MT NC ND NM NV OH VA1-Sep 9 -76 -96 56 -100 -72 -81 -100 -65 52 -42 -37 5
15-Aug -6 -76 -96 56 -35 -57 -81 -100 -65 32 -57 13 51-Aug 29 -81 -96 56 -35 -77 -81 -100 -65 32 -57 13 -35
15-Jul 44 -81 -96 56 -35 -77 -96 -100 -65 32 -42 28 -65
LAST 3
1-Sep 15 -30 -30 30 -30 -30 -15 -30 -15 30 0 -15 1515-Aug 0 -30 -30 30 15 -15 -15 -30 -15 30 -15 15 15
1-Aug 15 -15 -30 30 15 -15 -15 -30 -15 30 -15 15 1515-Jul 30 -15 -30 30 15 -15 -30 -30 -15 30 -1 30 -15
LAST 101-Sep 20 -20 -40 40 -40 -20 -40 -40 -20 40 -20 0 20
15-Aug 20 -20 -40 40 -20 -20 -40 -40 -20 20 -20 20 201-Aug 40 -40 -40 40 -20 -40 -40 -40 -20 20 -20 20 -2015-Jul 40 -40 -40 40 -20 -40 -40 -40 -20 20 -20 20 -20
EVs 9 27 15 7 11 11 3 15 3 5 5 20 13
GOP-IN-2004/RED STATES
Renewing America's Promise
Source: 2008 Democratic National Convention
Country First
Source: 2008 Republican National Convention and Reflections Photography
Blue Stocks, Red Stocks
Blue Stocks Red Stocks
Housing GSEs Managed Care/HMOs IT Pharma
Generic Drug/Biotech Coal Hospitals Oil & Gas
Internet Content & Applications Exploration & Production Alternative/Renewable Energy Global Manufacturing Conglomerates
LNG Tobacco Ethanol Student Loan Companies
Environmental Remediation Companies Credit Card Companies Advertisers Investment Banks
Fixed Income Investors Bell Operating Companies United Parcel Service (UPS) Federal Express
Information Processors Aerospace/Defense Tax Preparers Utilities
Wal-Mart
Five Hanging Curve Balls
•Healthcare Reform•Climate Change•Financial Services Re-Regulation•Tax Reform•Peace Dividend
This report is for private circulation and distribution in its entirety and is based upon information believed to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee accuracy and are neither responsible for errors of transmission of information, nor liable for damages resulting from reliance on this information. Opinions in this report constitute the personal judgment of the analysts and are subject to change without notice. The information in the report is not an offer to purchase or sell any
security, nor do the analysts receive any compensation in exchange for any specific recommendation or view expressed in this report. Analysts may own securities of the issuers discussed herein.
